Round 4 of 20 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2023

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

28.04 – 30.04.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	39:29.085	25
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.221	20
3	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.119	16
4	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.942	13
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.760	11
6	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+6.329	10
7	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.371	9
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+14.952	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+15.692	7
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.846	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+17.209	5
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+17.911	4
13	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+19.010	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Team	+27.294	2
15	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+36.371	1
16	Iker Lecuona	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+36.753	0
17	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+47.146	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	18:07.055	12
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.428	9
3	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.680	7
4	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.853	6
5	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+1.638	5
6	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.738	4
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.248	3
8	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+3.380	2
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+5.711	1
10	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+7.015	0
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.174	0
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.467	0
13	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+9.867	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+11.550	0
15	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Team	+15.455	0
16	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.849	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+15.969	0
18	Iker Lecuona	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.356	0
19	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+25.530	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Aleix Espargaro · 26%	Brad Binder · 11% · from P4	0.76 / 0.76	2.1 / 3.2
Race (after the grid)	Aleix Espargaro · 27%	Francesco Bagnaia · 7% · from P5	0.93 / 0.93	1.4 / 1.4
Race (after the sprint)	Aleix Espargaro · 24%	Francesco Bagnaia · 8% · from P5	0.93 / 0.93	1.6 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.406	—	+0.221	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:38.449	+0.043	+0.457	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:38.461	+0.055	+0.327	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:38.482	+0.076	+0.105	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.523	+0.117	+0.209	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:38.579	+0.173	+0.344	Medium	13
Daniel Pedrosa	1:38.626	+0.220	+0.089	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:38.645	+0.239	+0.292	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:38.650	+0.244	+0.308	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.743	+0.337	+0.553	Medium	13
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.892	+0.486	+0.512	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.898	+0.492	+0.275	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:38.944	+0.538	+0.359	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:38.980	+0.574	+0.356	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.056	+0.650	+0.320	Medium	22
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.099	+0.693	+0.437	Medium	22
Stefan Bradl	1:39.411	+1.005	+0.530	Medium	22
Raul Fernandez	1:39.454	+1.048	+0.667	Medium	22
Iker Lecuona	1:39.889	+1.483	+0.094	Medium	21
Jonas Folger	1:40.341	+1.935	—	Medium	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.221 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P20 to P13.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jack Miller (17 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/11

Laps led by the winner

Brad Binder

0.428 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Iker Lecuona, from P23 to P18.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Miguel Oliveira (11 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:09	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:09	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:09	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:09	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:34		Red flag	Red flag
Sprint	15:23:32	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:24:22	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:27:38	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:30:45	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:32:13	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:02:39	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:02:48	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Medical Centre
Race	15:03:57		Red flag	Red flag
Race	15:24:25	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:25:13	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	15:25:14	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	15:26:04	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:28:22	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:28:35	Alex Rins	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:32:07	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to incorrect long lap execution
Race	15:34:25	Francesco Bagnaia	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:36:02	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:50:01	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:50:24	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:03:56	Maverick Viñales	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #21

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 11 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Brad Binder (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Augusto Fernandez	20	16	+4
Fabio Quartararo	15	11	+4
Brad Binder	4	1	+3
Alex Rins	17	22	−5
Aleix Espargaro	1	5	−4
Marco Bezzecchi	12	15	−3

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	5→1	+4.4
Brad Binder	4→2	+2.8
Augusto Fernandez	20→13	+2.0
Jonas Folger	21→17	−1.3
Aleix Espargaro	1→5	−2.2
Raul Fernandez	16→15	−2.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.42%	−0.004	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.0 °C

Air

max 27.1 °C

46%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:36.770	—	20	298.3	Soft / Soft	1:38.540	+0.14%	13	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:36.804	+0.034	20	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.618	+0.22%	12	Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.044	+0.274	19	291.1	Soft / Soft	1:39.380	+1.00%	5	Medium
4	Luca Marini	01:37.053	+0.283	19	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.463	+0.07%	10	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.090	+0.320	18	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.843	+0.45%	6	Medium
6	Brad Binder	01:37.097	+0.327	20	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.864	+0.47%	12	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:37.138	+0.368	19	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.567	+0.17%	7	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:37.262	+0.492	19	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:38.947	+0.56%	7	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.388	+0.618	17	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.479	+0.08%	5	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:37.389	+0.619	19	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.520	+2.16%	5	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:37.432	+0.662	20	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:39.238	+0.85%	10	Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:37.487	+0.717	19	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.633	+0.863	17	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.398	—	6	Medium
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.682	+0.912	19	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:38.858	+0.47%	10	Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:37.850	+1.080	18	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Stefan Bradl	01:37.902	+1.132	17	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.299	+1.93%	10	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:38.055	+1.285	19	291.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.073	+1.303	21	289.5	Soft / Medium	1:38.474	+0.08%	14	Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.104	+1.334	19	288.7	Soft / Medium	1:39.167	+0.78%	7	Medium
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.106	+1.336	16	289.5	Soft / Soft	1:39.480	+1.10%	5	Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.278	+1.508	19	288.0	Soft / Soft	1:39.709	+1.33%	6	Medium
22	Enea Bastianini	01:38.931	+2.161	13	293.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Jonas Folger	01:39.545	+2.775	18	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Iker Lecuona	01:40.509	+3.739	16	288.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.590	+4.26%	6	Medium

FP2 · 28.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.708	—	22	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:36.710	+0.002	25	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.455	+0.09%	11	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:36.835	+0.127	27	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:39.046	+0.69%	15	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:36.896	+0.188	22	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:36.956	+0.248	25	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:38.718	+0.35%	6	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	01:37.041	+0.333	23	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.536	+0.17%	6	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.174	+0.466	24	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.370	—	12	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.233	+0.525	21	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.251	+0.543	24	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:38.968	+0.61%	5	Medium
10	Luca Marini	01:37.276	+0.568	25	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.664	+0.30%	14	Medium
11	Jorge Martin	01:37.306	+0.598	28	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.700	+0.34%	15	Medium
12	Brad Binder	01:37.390	+0.682	24	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.720	+0.36%	7	Medium
13	Raul Fernandez	01:37.403	+0.695	20	288.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.483	+0.775	26	288.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.505	+0.797	28	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.402	+0.03%	13	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.700	+0.992	25	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:38.774	+0.41%	12	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.860	+1.152	24	288.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Stefan Bradl	01:37.873	+1.165	25	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.708	+1.36%	5	Soft
19	Joan Mir	01:37.916	+1.208	22	288.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.148	+1.81%	5	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:37.985	+1.277	17	291.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:38.132	+1.424	24	288.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Jonas Folger	01:38.698	+1.990	20	288.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.776	+2.45%	5	Soft
23	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.928	+2.220	24	287.2	Medium / Soft	1:39.809	+1.46%	7	Medium
24	Iker Lecuona	01:39.274	+2.566	24	288.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.536	+2.20%	11	Medium

Free practice · 29.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.229	—	15	290.3	Medium / Medium	1:37.954	+0.30%	11	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.332	+0.103	11	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:37.660	—	5	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.472	+0.243	8	291.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.512	+0.283	14	289.5	Soft / Soft	1:38.427	+0.79%	5	Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.524	+0.295	15	288.0	Soft / Soft	1:38.029	+0.38%	9	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.633	+0.404	11	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:37.893	+0.24%	6	Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:37.639	+0.410	13	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.115	+0.47%	5	Soft
8	Jorge Martin	01:37.643	+0.414	7	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:38.052	+0.40%	5	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:37.647	+0.418	14	291.8	Soft / Soft	1:38.224	+0.58%	5	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:37.665	+0.436	15	290.3	Medium / Medium	1:37.869	+0.21%	5	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:37.786	+0.557	14	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.816	+0.587	11	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.282	+0.64%	5	Soft
13	Luca Marini	01:37.866	+0.637	15	289.5	Medium / Medium	1:38.397	+0.76%	7	Medium
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.917	+0.688	16	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:37.920	+0.691	15	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.561	+0.92%	7	Soft
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.098	+0.869	13	292.6	Soft / Soft	1:38.557	+0.92%	5	Soft
17	Stefan Bradl	01:38.248	+1.019	15	286.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.700	+1.07%	6	Soft
18	Joan Mir	01:38.287	+1.058	12	285.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.467	+1.238	13	287.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.624	+0.99%	7	Soft
20	Raul Fernandez	01:38.498	+1.269	12	288.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:38.634	+1.405	14	288.0	Medium / Medium	1:38.726	+1.09%	10	Medium
22	Enea Bastianini	01:39.093	+1.864	5	294.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Jonas Folger	01:39.535	+2.306	12	288.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Iker Lecuona	01:39.756	+2.527	13	286.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.202	+2.60%	5	Soft

Q1 · 29.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:36.493	—	7	293.4	Medium / Soft
2	Brad Binder	01:36.541	+0.048	7	295.0	Medium / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:36.578	+0.085	9	295.8	Medium / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:36.793	+0.300	8	293.4	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:36.967	+0.474	8	287.2	Soft / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.072	+0.579	8	292.6	Medium / Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:37.164	+0.671	8	292.6	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:37.256	+0.763	8	289.5	Medium / Soft
9	Stefan Bradl	01:37.297	+0.804	8	292.6	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:37.346	+0.853	8	287.2	Medium / Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:37.753	+1.260	8	289.5	Medium / Soft
12	Jonas Folger	01:38.492	+1.999	8	291.8	Medium / Soft
13	Iker Lecuona	01:38.582	+2.089	8	290.3	Medium / Soft
Retired	Enea Bastianini		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 29.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.216	—	9	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:44.738	+5.16%	7	Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:37.437	+0.221	7	294.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:37.458	+0.242	8	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Brad Binder	01:37.532	+0.316	8	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.557	+0.341	8	292.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.583	+0.367	8	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.596	+0.380	9	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:43.915	+4.33%	7	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:37.616	+0.400	7	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Luca Marini	01:37.666	+0.450	9	290.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:37.765	+0.549	7	293.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.876	+0.660	9	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:45.487	+5.91%	7	Soft
12	Alex Marquez	01:37.920	+0.704	9	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.603	—	6	Soft

Sprint · 29.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	18:07.055	12	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.365	+0.06%	9	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+0.428	9	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.388	+0.09%	8	Soft
3	Jack Miller	+0.680	7	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.304	—	8	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	+0.853	6	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.308	+0.00%	9	Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	+1.638	5	11	Medium / Medium	1:38.394	+0.09%	7	Medium
6	Daniel Pedrosa	+1.738	4	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.438	+0.14%	8	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+3.248	3	11	Medium / Medium	1:38.394	+0.09%	8	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	+3.380	2	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.401	+0.10%	9	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+5.711	1	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.632	+0.33%	9	Soft
10	Luca Marini	+7.015	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.646	+0.35%	7	Soft
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+7.174	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.653	+0.36%	9	Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	+7.467	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.682	+0.39%	8	Soft
13	Alex Rins	+9.867	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:38.956	+0.66%	9	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	+11.550	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:39.140	+0.85%	9	Medium
15	Stefan Bradl	+15.455	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:39.515	+1.23%	8	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	+15.849	0	11	Soft / Medium	1:39.505	+1.22%	8	Medium
17	Augusto Fernandez	+15.969	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:39.554	+1.27%	9	Soft
18	Iker Lecuona	+25.356	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:40.399	+2.13%	8	Soft
19	Jonas Folger	+25.530	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:40.395	+2.13%	7	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:39.597	+1.32%	5	Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.161	—	6	295.0	Medium / Medium
2	Brad Binder	01:37.399	+0.238	6	297.5	Medium / Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:37.439	+0.278	6	295.0	Medium / Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.485	+0.324	6	298.3	Soft / Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.537	+0.376	6	296.7	Medium / Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.542	+0.381	6	288.0	Soft / Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.585	+0.424	6	291.1	Soft / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:37.631	+0.470	6	295.0	Medium / Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.708	+0.547	6	291.1	Soft / Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:37.793	+0.632	6	295.0	Soft / Medium
11	Joan Mir	01:37.887	+0.726	6	291.8	Soft / Medium
12	Raul Fernandez	01:37.903	+0.742	6	291.1	Medium / Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.915	+0.754	6	291.1	Medium / Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	01:37.948	+0.787	6	292.6	Medium / Soft
15	Johann Zarco	01:37.962	+0.801	6	294.2	Soft / Medium
16	Luca Marini	01:37.977	+0.816	6	295.0	Medium / Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.025	+0.864	6	291.1	Medium / Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:38.386	+1.225	6	291.1	Soft / Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.590	+1.429	6	292.6	Medium / Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:38.609	+1.448	6	290.3	Medium / Soft
21	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.625	+1.464	6	297.5	Medium / Medium
22	Jonas Folger	01:38.960	+1.799	6	292.6	Medium / Medium
23	Iker Lecuona	01:39.283	+2.122	6	290.3	Medium / Medium

Race · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	39:29.085	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.406	—	21	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+0.221	20	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.461	+0.06%	22	Medium
3	Jack Miller	+1.119	16	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.482	+0.08%	22	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	+1.942	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.449	+0.04%	21	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	+4.760	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.523	+0.12%	21	Medium
6	Luca Marini	+6.329	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.650	+0.25%	22	Medium
7	Daniel Pedrosa	+6.371	9	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.626	+0.22%	21	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	+14.952	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.980	+0.58%	21	Medium
9	Takaaki Nakagami	+15.692	7	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.944	+0.55%	22	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+15.846	6	24	Hard / Medium	1:38.898	+0.50%	22	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+17.209	5	24	Medium / Medium	1:38.892	+0.49%	19	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+17.911	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:39.056	+0.66%	22	Medium
13	Augusto Fernandez	+19.010	3	24	Medium / Medium	1:39.099	+0.70%	22	Medium
14	Stefan Bradl	+27.294	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:39.411	+1.02%	22	Medium
15	Raul Fernandez	+36.371	1	24	Medium / Medium	1:39.454	+1.07%	22	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	+36.753	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:39.889	+1.51%	21	Medium
17	Jonas Folger	+47.146	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.341	+1.97%	21	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	2	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	1	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	16	Medium / Medium	1:38.579	+0.18%	13	Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	16	Medium / Medium	1:38.743	+0.34%	13	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	23	Medium / Medium	1:38.645	+0.24%	21	Medium
Out on lap 1	Miguel Oliveira		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:37.423*	—	+0.275	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:37.777	+0.354	+0.193	Medium	7
Francesco Bagnaia	1:37.842*	+0.419	+0.221	Medium	4
Jorge Martin	1:37.898	+0.475	+0.457	Medium	6
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.017	+0.594	+0.209	Medium	8
Alex Marquez	1:38.123	+0.700	+0.356	Medium	5
Johann Zarco	1:38.152*	+0.729	+0.344	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:38.172	+0.749	+0.292	Medium	12
Takaaki Nakagami	1:38.240*	+0.817	+0.359	Medium	3
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.349	+0.926	+0.553	Medium	5
Luca Marini	1:38.397	+0.974	+0.308	Medium	7
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.497	+1.074	+0.512	Medium	5
Raul Fernandez	1:38.498	+1.075	+0.667	Medium	7
Daniel Pedrosa	1:38.625	+1.202	+0.089	Medium	5
Alex Rins	1:38.707	+1.284	+0.217	Medium	9
Jack Miller	1:38.934	+1.511	+0.105	Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.058	+1.635	+0.437	Medium	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.136	+1.713	+0.320	Medium	6
Jonas Folger	1:39.167*	+1.744	—	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	1:39.426*	+2.003	+0.319	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Enea Bastianini	24	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Miguel Oliveira	7	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Enea Bastianini	24	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Johann Zarco	7	8	+1
Race	Luca Marini	8	9	+1
Race	Maverick Viñales	9	10	+1
Race	Takaaki Nakagami	10	11	+1
Race	Alex Marquez	11	12	+1
Race	Marco Bezzecchi	12	13	+1
Race	Franco Morbidelli	13	14	+1
Race	Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	15	+1
Race	Fabio Quartararo	15	16	+1
Race	Raul Fernandez	16	17	+1
Race	Alex Rins	17	18	+1
Race	Stefan Bradl	18	19	+1
Race	Joan Mir	19	20	+1
Race	Augusto Fernandez	20	21	+1
Race	Jonas Folger	21	22	+1
Race	Iker Lecuona	22	23	+1

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	26%	53%	65%	74%	24%	—
Jack Miller	2	23%	54%	71%	85%	13%	3
Jorge Martin	3	16%	46%	64%	82%	13%	4
Brad Binder	4	11%	38%	58%	81%	13%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	5	8%	30%	53%	82%	13%	2
Daniel Pedrosa	6	5%	21%	42%	73%	19%	6
Johann Zarco	7	4%	18%	37%	76%	13%	8
Luca Marini	8	2%	11%	27%	62%	24%	10
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	9%	23%	67%	13%	7
Takaaki Nakagami	10	1%	7%	19%	62%	13%	—
Alex Marquez	11	1%	5%	12%	48%	24%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	3%	8%	41%	24%	9
Franco Morbidelli	13	1%	3%	8%	40%	13%	16
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	13%	11
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	4%	27%	13%	12
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	13%	14
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	13%	13
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	16%	15
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	6%	35%	—
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	24%	17
Jonas Folger	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	19
Iker Lecuona	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	18
Miguel Oliveira	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	5
Enea Bastianini	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	31%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	24%	52%	65%	74%	24%	5
Jack Miller	2	24%	53%	65%	75%	25%	3
Jorge Martin	3	8%	28%	46%	67%	28%	4
Brad Binder	4	15%	46%	66%	84%	12%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	5	8%	27%	45%	67%	28%	1
Daniel Pedrosa	6	5%	21%	43%	76%	12%	7
Johann Zarco	7	7%	27%	49%	76%	18%	—
Luca Marini	8	2%	10%	26%	72%	7%	6
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	12%	28%	70%	11%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	10	1%	6%	16%	55%	17%	9
Alex Marquez	11	0%	4%	9%	42%	23%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	3%	9%	46%	14%	—
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	1%	4%	22%	18%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	1%	5%	12%	47%	21%	12
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	5%	29%	14%	10
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	3%	19%	19%	15
Alex Rins	17	0%	1%	2%	17%	21%	—
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	14
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	22%	—
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	13%	13
Jonas Folger	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	17
Iker Lecuona	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	34%	16
Miguel Oliveira	23	0%	2%	5%	30%	17%	—
Enea Bastianini	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Johann Zarco	18% → 27%	+9	4% → 7%
Brad Binder	40% → 46%	+6	12% → 15%
Jack Miller	47% → 53%	+6	20% → 24%
Dropping
Jorge Martin	39% → 28%	−11	14% → 8%
Luca Marini	16% → 10%	−6	3% → 2%
Daniel Pedrosa	26% → 21%	−5	6% → 5%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:38.304	—	+0.105	Soft	8
Jorge Martin	1:38.308	+0.004	+0.457	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:38.365	+0.061	+0.327	Soft	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.388	+0.084	+0.221	Soft	8
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.394	+0.090	+0.193	Medium	7
Maverick Viñales	1:38.394	+0.090	+0.292	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:38.401	+0.097	+0.344	Soft	9
Daniel Pedrosa	1:38.438	+0.134	+0.089	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.632	+0.328	+0.553	Soft	9
Luca Marini	1:38.646	+0.342	+0.308	Soft	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.653	+0.349	+0.320	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.682	+0.378	+0.275	Soft	8
Alex Rins	1:38.956	+0.652	+0.217	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:39.140	+0.836	+0.667	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.505	+1.201	+0.512	Medium	8
Stefan Bradl	1:39.515	+1.211	+0.530	Soft	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.554	+1.250	+0.437	Soft	9
Joan Mir	1:39.597	+1.293	+0.562	Soft	5
Jonas Folger	1:40.395	+2.091	—	Soft	7
Iker Lecuona	1:40.399	+2.095	+0.094	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marco Bezzecchi	64	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	53	−11
3	Alex Rins	47	−17
4	Maverick Viñales	45	−19
5	Johann Zarco	44	−20
6	Luca Marini	38	−26

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.285 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Francesco Bagnaia (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.206	—	+0.221	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.216	+0.010	+0.275	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.600	+0.394	+0.209	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:38.615	+0.409	+0.344	Medium	7
Marc Marquez	1:38.684	+0.478	+0.210	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:38.700	+0.494	+0.562	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:38.726	+0.520	+0.105	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:38.799	+0.593	+0.359	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:38.864	+0.658	+0.319	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:38.870	+0.664	+0.327	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.83%	+0.013	1	3	11.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.