MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 4 of 20 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2023

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984
28.04 – 30.04.2023
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team39:29.08525
2Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+0.22120
3Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+1.11916
4Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+1.94213
5Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+4.76011
6Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+6.32910
7Daniel PedrosaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+6.3719
8Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+14.9528
9Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+15.6927
10Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+15.8466
11Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+17.2095
12Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+17.9114
13Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+19.0103
14Stefan BradlHondaHRC Team+27.2942
15Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+36.3711
16Iker LecuonaHondaRepsol Honda Team+36.7530
17Jonas FolgerKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+47.1460
DNFAlex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROLRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFMarco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFMaverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFMiguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP TeamOut on lap 10

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing18:07.05512
2Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+0.4289
3Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+0.6807
4Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+0.8536
5Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+1.6385
6Daniel PedrosaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+1.7384
7Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+3.2483
8Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+3.3802
9Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+5.7111
10Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+7.0150
11Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+7.1740
12Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+7.4670
13Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+9.8670
14Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+11.5500
15Stefan BradlHondaHRC Team+15.4550
16Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+15.8490
17Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+15.9690
18Iker LecuonaHondaRepsol Honda Team+25.3560
19Jonas FolgerKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+25.5300
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFAlex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFTakaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSURetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintAleix Espargaro · 26%Brad Binder · 11% · from P40.76 / 0.762.1 / 3.2
Race (after the grid)Aleix Espargaro · 27%Francesco Bagnaia · 7% · from P50.93 / 0.931.4 / 1.4
Race (after the sprint)Aleix Espargaro · 24%Francesco Bagnaia · 8% · from P50.93 / 0.931.6 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:38.406—+0.221Medium21
Jorge Martin1:38.449+0.043+0.457Medium21
Brad Binder1:38.461+0.055+0.327Medium22
Jack Miller1:38.482+0.076+0.105Medium22
Aleix Espargaro1:38.523+0.117+0.209Medium21
Johann Zarco1:38.579+0.173+0.344Medium13
Daniel Pedrosa1:38.626+0.220+0.089Medium21
Maverick Viñales1:38.645+0.239+0.292Medium21
Luca Marini1:38.650+0.244+0.308Medium22
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.743+0.337+0.553Medium13
Franco Morbidelli1:38.892+0.486+0.512Medium19
Fabio Quartararo1:38.898+0.492+0.275Medium22
Takaaki Nakagami1:38.944+0.538+0.359Medium22
Alex Marquez1:38.980+0.574+0.356Medium21
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:39.056+0.650+0.320Medium22
Augusto Fernandez1:39.099+0.693+0.437Medium22
Stefan Bradl1:39.411+1.005+0.530Medium22
Raul Fernandez1:39.454+1.048+0.667Medium22
Iker Lecuona1:39.889+1.483+0.094Medium21
Jonas Folger1:40.341+1.935—Medium21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

39
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
4/24
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.221 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P20 to P13.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jack Miller (17 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

18
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
2 leaders
4/11
Laps led by the winner
Brad Binder
0.428 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Iker Lecuona, from P23 to P18.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Miguel Oliveira (11 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:03:09Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:03:09Augusto FernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:03:09Marco BezzecchiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:03:09Franco MorbidelliCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:03:34Red flagRed flag
Sprint15:23:32Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:24:22Takaaki NakagamiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:27:38Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:30:45Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:32:13Joan MirRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:02:39Fabio QuartararoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:02:48Miguel OliveiraCrashCrashed out - Medical Centre
Race15:03:57Red flagRed flag
Race15:24:25Alex RinsCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:25:13Franco MorbidelliLong lapLong lap penalty
Race15:25:14Fabio QuartararoLong lapLong lap penalty
Race15:26:04Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:28:22Franco MorbidelliLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race15:28:35Alex RinsRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:32:07Fabio QuartararoLong lapLong lap penalty due to incorrect long lap execution
Race15:34:25Francesco BagnaiaPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Race15:36:02Fabio QuartararoLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race15:50:01Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:50:24Marco BezzecchiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:03:56Maverick ViñalesTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #21

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 11 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+0.42%−0.004139.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
27.0 °C
Air
max 27.1 °C
46%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
13 km/h
Wind
gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Daniel Pedrosa01:36.770—20298.3Soft / Soft1:38.540+0.14%13Medium
2Jorge Martin01:36.804+0.03420294.2Medium / Soft1:38.618+0.22%12Medium
3Takaaki Nakagami01:37.044+0.27419291.1Soft / Soft1:39.380+1.00%5Medium
4Luca Marini01:37.053+0.28319291.8Medium / Soft1:38.463+0.07%10Medium
5Aleix Espargaro01:37.090+0.32018291.8Medium / Soft1:38.843+0.45%6Medium
6Brad Binder01:37.097+0.32720295.0Medium / Soft1:38.864+0.47%12Medium
7Alex Marquez01:37.138+0.36819293.4Medium / Soft1:38.567+0.17%7Medium
8Jack Miller01:37.262+0.49219297.5Soft / Soft1:38.947+0.56%7Medium
9Francesco Bagnaia01:37.388+0.61817292.6Medium / Soft1:38.479+0.08%5Medium
10Maverick Viñales01:37.389+0.61919295.0Medium / Soft1:40.520+2.16%5Soft
11Johann Zarco01:37.432+0.66220294.2Soft / Medium1:39.238+0.85%10Medium
12Alex Rins01:37.487+0.71719289.5Medium / Soft——
13Miguel Oliveira01:37.633+0.86317295.8Medium / Soft1:38.398—6Medium
14Marco Bezzecchi01:37.682+0.91219291.1Medium / Soft1:38.858+0.47%10Medium
15Joan Mir01:37.850+1.08018290.3Medium / Soft——
16Stefan Bradl01:37.902+1.13217291.8Medium / Soft1:40.299+1.93%10Medium
17Raul Fernandez01:38.055+1.28519291.1Soft / Soft——
18Fabio Quartararo01:38.073+1.30321289.5Soft / Medium1:38.474+0.08%14Medium
19Fabio Di Giannantonio01:38.104+1.33419288.7Soft / Medium1:39.167+0.78%7Medium
20Franco Morbidelli01:38.106+1.33616289.5Soft / Soft1:39.480+1.10%5Medium
21Augusto Fernandez01:38.278+1.50819288.0Soft / Soft1:39.709+1.33%6Medium
22Enea Bastianini01:38.931+2.16113293.4Soft / Medium——
23Jonas Folger01:39.545+2.77518289.5Medium / Soft——
24Iker Lecuona01:40.509+3.73916288.7Soft / Medium1:42.590+4.26%6Medium
FP2 · 28.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Aleix Espargaro01:36.708—22290.3Medium / Soft——
2Maverick Viñales01:36.710+0.00225292.6Medium / Soft1:38.455+0.09%11Medium
3Jack Miller01:36.835+0.12727293.4Medium / Soft1:39.046+0.69%15Medium
4Johann Zarco01:36.896+0.18822290.3Medium / Soft——
5Miguel Oliveira01:36.956+0.24825291.1Medium / Soft1:38.718+0.35%6Medium
6Alex Marquez01:37.041+0.33323290.3Medium / Soft1:38.536+0.17%6Soft
7Marco Bezzecchi01:37.174+0.46624293.4Medium / Soft1:38.370—12Medium
8Francesco Bagnaia01:37.233+0.52521290.3Medium / Soft——
9Daniel Pedrosa01:37.251+0.54324297.5Medium / Soft1:38.968+0.61%5Medium
10Luca Marini01:37.276+0.56825290.3Medium / Soft1:38.664+0.30%14Medium
11Jorge Martin01:37.306+0.59828292.6Medium / Soft1:38.700+0.34%15Medium
12Brad Binder01:37.390+0.68224293.4Medium / Soft1:38.720+0.36%7Medium
13Raul Fernandez01:37.403+0.69520288.7Medium / Soft——
14Takaaki Nakagami01:37.483+0.77526288.0Medium / Soft——
15Fabio Quartararo01:37.505+0.79728291.8Medium / Soft1:38.402+0.03%13Soft
16Franco Morbidelli01:37.700+0.99225291.1Medium / Soft1:38.774+0.41%12Medium
17Fabio Di Giannantonio01:37.860+1.15224288.0Medium / Soft——
18Stefan Bradl01:37.873+1.16525290.3Medium / Soft1:39.708+1.36%5Soft
19Joan Mir01:37.916+1.20822288.0Medium / Soft1:40.148+1.81%5Medium
20Enea Bastianini01:37.985+1.27717291.1Medium / Soft——
21Alex Rins01:38.132+1.42424288.7Medium / Soft——
22Jonas Folger01:38.698+1.99020288.7Medium / Soft1:40.776+2.45%5Soft
23Augusto Fernandez01:38.928+2.22024287.2Medium / Soft1:39.809+1.46%7Medium
24Iker Lecuona01:39.274+2.56624288.0Medium / Soft1:40.536+2.20%11Medium
Free practice · 29.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Miguel Oliveira01:37.229—15290.3Medium / Medium1:37.954+0.30%11Medium
2Fabio Quartararo01:37.332+0.10311292.6Medium / Soft1:37.660—5Soft
3Aleix Espargaro01:37.472+0.2438291.1Medium / Medium——
4Franco Morbidelli01:37.512+0.28314289.5Soft / Soft1:38.427+0.79%5Soft
5Takaaki Nakagami01:37.524+0.29515288.0Soft / Soft1:38.029+0.38%9Soft
6Marco Bezzecchi01:37.633+0.40411295.0Medium / Soft1:37.893+0.24%6Soft
7Brad Binder01:37.639+0.41013293.4Medium / Soft1:38.115+0.47%5Soft
8Jorge Martin01:37.643+0.4147292.6Medium / Medium1:38.052+0.40%5Medium
9Alex Marquez01:37.647+0.41814291.8Soft / Soft1:38.224+0.58%5Soft
10Maverick Viñales01:37.665+0.43615290.3Medium / Medium1:37.869+0.21%5Medium
11Johann Zarco01:37.786+0.55714293.4Medium / Soft——
12Francesco Bagnaia01:37.816+0.58711292.6Medium / Soft1:38.282+0.64%5Soft
13Luca Marini01:37.866+0.63715289.5Medium / Medium1:38.397+0.76%7Medium
14Daniel Pedrosa01:37.917+0.68816296.7Medium / Soft——
15Jack Miller01:37.920+0.69115292.6Medium / Soft1:38.561+0.92%7Soft
16Fabio Di Giannantonio01:38.098+0.86913292.6Soft / Soft1:38.557+0.92%5Soft
17Stefan Bradl01:38.248+1.01915286.4Medium / Soft1:38.700+1.07%6Soft
18Joan Mir01:38.287+1.05812285.7Medium / Soft——
19Augusto Fernandez01:38.467+1.23813287.2Medium / Soft1:38.624+0.99%7Soft
20Raul Fernandez01:38.498+1.26912288.7Medium / Medium——
21Alex Rins01:38.634+1.40514288.0Medium / Medium1:38.726+1.09%10Medium
22Enea Bastianini01:39.093+1.8645294.2Soft / Soft——
23Jonas Folger01:39.535+2.30612288.0Medium / Soft——
24Iker Lecuona01:39.756+2.52713286.4Medium / Soft1:40.202+2.60%5Soft
Q1 · 29.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Francesco Bagnaia01:36.493—7293.4Medium / Soft
2Brad Binder01:36.541+0.0487295.0Medium / Soft
3Marco Bezzecchi01:36.578+0.0859295.8Medium / Soft
4Franco Morbidelli01:36.793+0.3008293.4Medium / Soft
5Fabio Di Giannantonio01:36.967+0.4748287.2Soft / Soft
6Fabio Quartararo01:37.072+0.5798292.6Medium / Soft
7Raul Fernandez01:37.164+0.6718292.6Medium / Soft
8Alex Rins01:37.256+0.7638289.5Medium / Soft
9Stefan Bradl01:37.297+0.8048292.6Medium / Soft
10Joan Mir01:37.346+0.8538287.2Medium / Soft
11Augusto Fernandez01:37.753+1.2608289.5Medium / Soft
12Jonas Folger01:38.492+1.9998291.8Medium / Soft
13Iker Lecuona01:38.582+2.0898290.3Medium / Soft
RetiredEnea Bastianini—00.0— / —
Q2 · 29.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Aleix Espargaro01:37.216—9292.6Medium / Soft1:44.738+5.16%7Soft
2Jack Miller01:37.437+0.2217294.2Soft / Soft——
3Jorge Martin01:37.458+0.2428295.8Medium / Soft——
4Brad Binder01:37.532+0.3168295.8Medium / Soft——
5Francesco Bagnaia01:37.557+0.3418292.6Medium / Soft——
6Daniel Pedrosa01:37.583+0.3678296.7Soft / Soft——
7Miguel Oliveira01:37.596+0.3809293.4Medium / Soft1:43.915+4.33%7Soft
8Johann Zarco01:37.616+0.4007297.5Medium / Soft——
9Luca Marini01:37.666+0.4509290.3Soft / Soft——
10Maverick Viñales01:37.765+0.5497293.4Soft / Soft——
11Takaaki Nakagami01:37.876+0.6609291.8Medium / Soft1:45.487+5.91%7Soft
12Alex Marquez01:37.920+0.7049291.8Medium / Soft1:39.603—6Soft
Sprint · 29.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Brad Binder18:07.0551211Medium / Soft1:38.365+0.06%9Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia+0.428911Medium / Soft1:38.388+0.09%8Soft
3Jack Miller+0.680711Medium / Soft1:38.304—8Soft
4Jorge Martin+0.853611Medium / Soft1:38.308+0.00%9Soft
5Miguel Oliveira+1.638511Medium / Medium1:38.394+0.09%7Medium
6Daniel Pedrosa+1.738411Medium / Soft1:38.438+0.14%8Soft
7Maverick Viñales+3.248311Medium / Medium1:38.394+0.09%8Medium
8Johann Zarco+3.380211Medium / Soft1:38.401+0.10%9Soft
9Marco Bezzecchi+5.711111Medium / Soft1:38.632+0.33%9Soft
10Luca Marini+7.015011Medium / Soft1:38.646+0.35%7Soft
11Fabio Di Giannantonio+7.174011Medium / Soft1:38.653+0.36%9Soft
12Fabio Quartararo+7.467011Medium / Soft1:38.682+0.39%8Soft
13Alex Rins+9.867011Medium / Soft1:38.956+0.66%9Soft
14Raul Fernandez+11.550011Medium / Medium1:39.140+0.85%9Medium
15Stefan Bradl+15.455011Medium / Soft1:39.515+1.23%8Soft
16Franco Morbidelli+15.849011Soft / Medium1:39.505+1.22%8Medium
17Augusto Fernandez+15.969011Medium / Soft1:39.554+1.27%9Soft
18Iker Lecuona+25.356011Hard / Soft1:40.399+2.13%8Soft
19Jonas Folger+25.530011Medium / Soft1:40.395+2.13%7Soft
RetiredAleix Espargaro05Medium / Medium——
RetiredAlex Marquez03Medium / Soft——
RetiredJoan Mir07Medium / Soft1:39.597+1.32%5Soft
RetiredTakaaki Nakagami03Medium / Soft——
Warm Up · 30.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Fabio Quartararo01:37.161—6295.0Medium / Medium
2Brad Binder01:37.399+0.2386297.5Medium / Medium
3Jorge Martin01:37.439+0.2786295.0Medium / Medium
4Marco Bezzecchi01:37.485+0.3246298.3Soft / Medium
5Francesco Bagnaia01:37.537+0.3766296.7Medium / Medium
6Takaaki Nakagami01:37.542+0.3816288.0Soft / Medium
7Miguel Oliveira01:37.585+0.4246291.1Soft / Soft
8Alex Marquez01:37.631+0.4706295.0Medium / Medium
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:37.708+0.5476291.1Soft / Medium
10Jack Miller01:37.793+0.6326295.0Soft / Medium
11Joan Mir01:37.887+0.7266291.8Soft / Medium
12Raul Fernandez01:37.903+0.7426291.1Medium / Medium
13Aleix Espargaro01:37.915+0.7546291.1Medium / Medium
14Maverick Viñales01:37.948+0.7876292.6Medium / Soft
15Johann Zarco01:37.962+0.8016294.2Soft / Medium
16Luca Marini01:37.977+0.8166295.0Medium / Medium
17Franco Morbidelli01:38.025+0.8646291.1Medium / Medium
18Alex Rins01:38.386+1.2256291.1Soft / Medium
19Augusto Fernandez01:38.590+1.4296292.6Medium / Medium
20Stefan Bradl01:38.609+1.4486290.3Medium / Soft
21Daniel Pedrosa01:38.625+1.4646297.5Medium / Medium
22Jonas Folger01:38.960+1.7996292.6Medium / Medium
23Iker Lecuona01:39.283+2.1226290.3Medium / Medium
Race · 30.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia39:29.0852524Medium / Medium1:38.406—21Medium
2Brad Binder+0.2212024Medium / Medium1:38.461+0.06%22Medium
3Jack Miller+1.1191624Medium / Medium1:38.482+0.08%22Medium
4Jorge Martin+1.9421324Medium / Medium1:38.449+0.04%21Medium
5Aleix Espargaro+4.7601124Medium / Medium1:38.523+0.12%21Medium
6Luca Marini+6.3291024Medium / Medium1:38.650+0.25%22Medium
7Daniel Pedrosa+6.371924Medium / Medium1:38.626+0.22%21Medium
8Alex Marquez+14.952824Medium / Medium1:38.980+0.58%21Medium
9Takaaki Nakagami+15.692724Medium / Medium1:38.944+0.55%22Medium
10Fabio Quartararo+15.846624Hard / Medium1:38.898+0.50%22Medium
11Franco Morbidelli+17.209524Medium / Medium1:38.892+0.49%19Medium
12Fabio Di Giannantonio+17.911424Medium / Medium1:39.056+0.66%22Medium
13Augusto Fernandez+19.010324Medium / Medium1:39.099+0.70%22Medium
14Stefan Bradl+27.294224Medium / Medium1:39.411+1.02%22Medium
15Raul Fernandez+36.371124Medium / Medium1:39.454+1.07%22Medium
16Iker Lecuona+36.753024Medium / Medium1:39.889+1.51%21Medium
17Jonas Folger+47.146024Medium / Medium1:40.341+1.97%21Medium
RetiredAlex Rins02Medium / Medium——
RetiredJoan Mir01Medium / Medium——
RetiredJohann Zarco016Medium / Medium1:38.579+0.18%13Medium
RetiredMarco Bezzecchi016Medium / Medium1:38.743+0.34%13Medium
RetiredMaverick Viñales023Medium / Medium1:38.645+0.24%21Medium
Out on lap 1Miguel Oliveira00— / ———

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fabio Quartararo1:37.423*—+0.275Medium3
Miguel Oliveira1:37.777+0.354+0.193Medium7
Francesco Bagnaia1:37.842*+0.419+0.221Medium4
Jorge Martin1:37.898+0.475+0.457Medium6
Aleix Espargaro1:38.017+0.594+0.209Medium8
Alex Marquez1:38.123+0.700+0.356Medium5
Johann Zarco1:38.152*+0.729+0.344Medium4
Maverick Viñales1:38.172+0.749+0.292Medium12
Takaaki Nakagami1:38.240*+0.817+0.359Medium3
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.349+0.926+0.553Medium5
Luca Marini1:38.397+0.974+0.308Medium7
Franco Morbidelli1:38.497+1.074+0.512Medium5
Raul Fernandez1:38.498+1.075+0.667Medium7
Daniel Pedrosa1:38.625+1.202+0.089Medium5
Alex Rins1:38.707+1.284+0.217Medium9
Jack Miller1:38.934+1.511+0.105Medium8
Augusto Fernandez1:39.058+1.635+0.437Medium5
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:39.136+1.713+0.320Medium6
Jonas Folger1:39.167*+1.744—Medium3
Enea Bastianini1:39.426*+2.003+0.319Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21
Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
SprintEnea Bastianini24——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
RaceMiguel Oliveira7——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
RaceEnea Bastianini24——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
RaceJohann Zarco78+1
RaceLuca Marini89+1
RaceMaverick Viñales910+1
RaceTakaaki Nakagami1011+1
RaceAlex Marquez1112+1
RaceMarco Bezzecchi1213+1
RaceFranco Morbidelli1314+1
RaceFabio Di Giannantonio1415+1
RaceFabio Quartararo1516+1
RaceRaul Fernandez1617+1
RaceAlex Rins1718+1
RaceStefan Bradl1819+1
RaceJoan Mir1920+1
RaceAugusto Fernandez2021+1
RaceJonas Folger2122+1
RaceIker Lecuona2223+1

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Aleix Espargaro126%53%65%74%24%—
Jack Miller223%54%71%85%13%3
Jorge Martin316%46%64%82%13%4
Brad Binder411%38%58%81%13%1
Francesco Bagnaia58%30%53%82%13%2
Daniel Pedrosa65%21%42%73%19%6
Johann Zarco74%18%37%76%13%8
Luca Marini82%11%27%62%24%10
Maverick Viñales92%9%23%67%13%7
Takaaki Nakagami101%7%19%62%13%—
Alex Marquez111%5%12%48%24%—
Marco Bezzecchi121%3%8%41%24%9
Franco Morbidelli131%3%8%40%13%16
Fabio Di Giannantonio140%2%5%34%13%11
Fabio Quartararo150%1%4%27%13%12
Raul Fernandez160%1%3%22%13%14
Alex Rins170%0%2%14%13%13
Stefan Bradl180%0%1%11%16%15
Joan Mir190%0%0%6%35%—
Augusto Fernandez200%0%0%5%24%17
Jonas Folger210%0%0%4%16%19
Iker Lecuona220%0%0%2%19%18
Miguel Oliveira230%0%0%2%14%5
Enea Bastianini240%0%0%1%31%—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Aleix Espargaro124%52%65%74%24%5
Jack Miller224%53%65%75%25%3
Jorge Martin38%28%46%67%28%4
Brad Binder415%46%66%84%12%2
Francesco Bagnaia58%27%45%67%28%1
Daniel Pedrosa65%21%43%76%12%7
Johann Zarco77%27%49%76%18%—
Luca Marini82%10%26%72%7%6
Maverick Viñales92%12%28%70%11%—
Takaaki Nakagami101%6%16%55%17%9
Alex Marquez110%4%9%42%23%8
Marco Bezzecchi121%3%9%46%14%—
Franco Morbidelli130%1%4%22%18%11
Fabio Di Giannantonio141%5%12%47%21%12
Fabio Quartararo150%1%5%29%14%10
Raul Fernandez160%1%3%19%19%15
Alex Rins170%1%2%17%21%—
Stefan Bradl180%0%1%12%19%14
Joan Mir190%0%1%7%22%—
Augusto Fernandez200%0%1%7%13%13
Jonas Folger210%0%0%4%16%17
Iker Lecuona220%0%0%3%34%16
Miguel Oliveira230%2%5%30%17%—
Enea Bastianini240%0%0%2%19%—

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Johann Zarco18% → 27%+94% → 7%
Brad Binder40% → 46%+612% → 15%
Jack Miller47% → 53%+620% → 24%
Dropping
Jorge Martin39% → 28%−1114% → 8%
Luca Marini16% → 10%−63% → 2%
Daniel Pedrosa26% → 21%−56% → 5%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jack Miller1:38.304—+0.105Soft8
Jorge Martin1:38.308+0.004+0.457Soft9
Brad Binder1:38.365+0.061+0.327Soft9
Francesco Bagnaia1:38.388+0.084+0.221Soft8
Miguel Oliveira1:38.394+0.090+0.193Medium7
Maverick Viñales1:38.394+0.090+0.292Medium8
Johann Zarco1:38.401+0.097+0.344Soft9
Daniel Pedrosa1:38.438+0.134+0.089Soft8
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.632+0.328+0.553Soft9
Luca Marini1:38.646+0.342+0.308Soft7
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:38.653+0.349+0.320Soft9
Fabio Quartararo1:38.682+0.378+0.275Soft8
Alex Rins1:38.956+0.652+0.217Soft9
Raul Fernandez1:39.140+0.836+0.667Medium9
Franco Morbidelli1:39.505+1.201+0.512Medium8
Stefan Bradl1:39.515+1.211+0.530Soft8
Augusto Fernandez1:39.554+1.250+0.437Soft9
Joan Mir1:39.597+1.293+0.562Soft5
Jonas Folger1:40.395+2.091—Soft7
Iker Lecuona1:40.399+2.095+0.094Soft8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BagnaiaS2 · A. EspargaroS3 · MartinS4 · Viñales

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
56%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

35
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
25/25
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.285 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Francesco Bagnaia (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2022 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:38.206—+0.221Medium23
Fabio Quartararo1:38.216+0.010+0.275Medium23
Aleix Espargaro1:38.600+0.394+0.209Medium23
Johann Zarco1:38.615+0.409+0.344Medium7
Marc Marquez1:38.684+0.478+0.210Medium22
Joan Mir1:38.700+0.494+0.562Medium23
Jack Miller1:38.726+0.520+0.105Medium23
Takaaki Nakagami1:38.799+0.593+0.359Medium23
Enea Bastianini1:38.864+0.658+0.319Medium23
Brad Binder1:38.870+0.664+0.327Medium23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2313%
20255/2322%
20248/2532%
20236/2326%
20223/2512%
20213/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+0.83%+0.0131311.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.