MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 3 of 20 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2023

Circuit Of The Americas United States

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013
14.04 – 16.04.2023
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL41:14.64925
2Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+3.49820
3Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+4.93616
4Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+8.31813
5Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+9.98911
6Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+12.04910
7Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+12.2429
8Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+20.3998
9Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+27.9817
10Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+28.2176
11Michele PirroDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+32.3705
12Jonas FolgerKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+68.0654
13Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+83.0123
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingOut on lap 10
DNFAlex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPOut on lap 10
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFJack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac RacingOut on lap 10
DNFRaul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFStefan BradlHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFTakaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSURetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team20:35.27012
2Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+2.5459
3Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+4.7067
4Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+5.0526
5Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+8.1755
6Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+8.8774
7Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+9.4533
8Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+10.7682
9Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+12.4481
10Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+12.7390
11Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+14.2510
12Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+14.9880
13Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+15.5920
14Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+16.5340
15Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+19.2900
16Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+23.1280
17Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+25.6260
18Stefan BradlHondaRepsol Honda Team+25.7870
19Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+27.1690
20Jonas FolgerKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+46.9730
DNFAlex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFMichele PirroDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintFrancesco Bagnaia · 30% ✓Francesco Bagnaia · 30% · from P10.73 / 0.733.0 / 3.3
Race (after the grid)Francesco Bagnaia · 25%Alex Rins · 21% · from P20.81 / 0.813.3 / 3.3
Race (after the sprint)Francesco Bagnaia · 27%Alex Rins · 17% · from P20.76 / 0.813.6 / 5.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jack Miller2:03.429—+0.105Soft4
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.448+0.019+0.221Soft4
Alex Rins2:03.595+0.166+0.217Soft18
Luca Marini2:03.688+0.259+0.308Soft18
Fabio Quartararo2:03.767+0.338+0.275Soft17
Miguel Oliveira2:03.860+0.431+0.193Soft18
Maverick Viñales2:03.862+0.433+0.292Soft17
Marco Bezzecchi2:04.127+0.698+0.553missing18
Johann Zarco2:04.213+0.784+0.344Soft17
Takaaki Nakagami2:04.368+0.939+0.359Soft9
Joan Mir2:04.398+0.969+0.562Soft6
Franco Morbidelli2:04.412+0.983+0.512Soft18
Brad Binder2:04.664+1.235+0.327Soft16
Raul Fernandez2:04.824+1.395+0.667Soft4
Stefan Bradl2:04.836+1.407+0.530Soft16
Fabio Di Giannantonio2:04.870+1.441+0.320Soft17
Michele Pirro2:04.942+1.513+0.267missing18
Augusto Fernandez2:04.966+1.537+0.437Soft16
Jonas Folger2:06.900+3.471—Soft18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

22
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
13/20
Laps led by the winner
Alex Rins
3.498 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P5.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Stefan Bradl (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

46
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
10/10
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
2.545 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Stefan Bradl (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:11:28Fabio QuartararoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:11:35Michele PirroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:14:15Michele PirroRetiredEntered pits and retired
Sprint15:16:43Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:03:13Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:03:19Jorge MartinCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:04:07Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:15:42Raul FernandezRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:15:46Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:17:29Francesco BagnaiaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:20:53Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:25:02Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:25:50Takaaki NakagamiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:41:51Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.76%+0.008136.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
21.3 °C
Air
max 22.0 °C
35%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
20 km/h
Wind
gusts 32 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Luca Marini02:03.250—14341.7Medium / Soft2:05.807+1.03%5Medium
2Fabio Quartararo02:03.400+0.15015335.4Medium / Soft——
3Johann Zarco02:03.528+0.27816342.8Soft / Soft2:06.035+1.22%4Medium
4Alex Marquez02:03.551+0.30116337.5Medium / Soft2:04.522—5Medium
5Jack Miller02:03.676+0.42614337.5Soft / Soft2:05.602+0.87%5Medium
6Jorge Martin02:03.708+0.45815343.9Medium / Medium——
7Francesco Bagnaia02:03.792+0.54214342.8Medium / Medium2:05.643+0.90%6Medium
8Maverick Viñales02:03.897+0.64716339.6Soft / Soft——
9Takaaki Nakagami02:04.139+0.88916335.4Medium / Soft——
10Brad Binder02:04.204+0.95417342.8Medium / Soft2:05.762+1.00%10Medium
11Joan Mir02:04.312+1.06214335.4Medium / Soft——
12Franco Morbidelli02:04.342+1.09216336.4Medium / Soft2:06.385+1.50%5Medium
13Marco Bezzecchi02:04.364+1.11415343.9Medium / Soft——
14Alex Rins02:04.452+1.20216337.5Soft / Medium2:05.822+1.04%5Medium
15Miguel Oliveira02:04.661+1.41113339.6Medium / Medium——
16Raul Fernandez02:04.904+1.65415336.4Medium / Medium——
17Fabio Di Giannantonio02:04.906+1.65616338.5Medium / Medium——
18Aleix Espargaro02:05.054+1.80414337.5Medium / Medium——
19Augusto Fernandez02:05.732+2.48217334.3Medium / Medium2:07.373+2.29%11Medium
20Stefan Bradl02:05.771+2.52115333.3Soft / Medium2:06.985+1.98%8Medium
21Michele Pirro02:05.772+2.52213339.6Medium / Soft——
22Jonas Folger02:08.176+4.92612334.3Soft / Medium——
FP2 · 14.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin02:02.178—20340.6Hard / Soft——
2Francesco Bagnaia02:02.241+0.06321340.6Hard / Soft——
3Alex Rins02:02.395+0.21720341.7Hard / Soft2:04.039—5Soft
4Luca Marini02:02.416+0.23821342.8Medium / Soft2:04.353+0.25%5Soft
5Alex Marquez02:02.682+0.50421339.6Hard / Soft2:04.106+0.05%5Soft
6Maverick Viñales02:02.717+0.53922341.7Hard / Soft2:04.164+0.10%10Soft
7Fabio Quartararo02:02.721+0.54320337.5Hard / Soft——
8Brad Binder02:02.735+0.55718343.9Hard / Soft——
9Aleix Espargaro02:02.765+0.58720341.7Hard / Soft——
10Jack Miller02:02.841+0.66319339.6Soft / Soft2:04.459+0.34%5Soft
11Marco Bezzecchi02:02.878+0.70022342.8Hard / Soft2:06.372+1.88%6Soft
12Joan Mir02:02.904+0.72617338.5Hard / Soft——
13Takaaki Nakagami02:03.208+1.03020335.4Hard / Soft2:04.686+0.52%5Soft
14Johann Zarco02:03.329+1.15117338.5Hard / Soft——
15Miguel Oliveira02:03.340+1.16214339.6Hard / Soft——
16Franco Morbidelli02:03.443+1.26518338.5Hard / Soft——
17Michele Pirro02:03.685+1.50718340.6Medium / Soft——
18Raul Fernandez02:03.690+1.51219338.5Hard / Soft——
19Fabio Di Giannantonio02:04.079+1.90117339.6Hard / Soft——
20Stefan Bradl02:04.129+1.95118333.3Hard / Soft——
21Augusto Fernandez02:04.561+2.38316337.5Soft / Soft——
22Jonas Folger02:06.529+4.35117334.3Medium / Soft——
Free practice · 15.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia02:03.295—12340.6Medium / Soft——
2Alex Marquez02:03.380+0.08513343.9Medium / Soft——
3Luca Marini02:03.534+0.2397346.1Medium / Soft——
4Jorge Martin02:03.608+0.31311341.7Medium / Soft——
5Fabio Quartararo02:03.662+0.36711334.3Medium / Soft——
6Marco Bezzecchi02:03.679+0.38411341.7Medium / Soft——
7Johann Zarco02:03.709+0.41411345.0Soft / Soft——
8Aleix Espargaro02:03.730+0.43512340.6Hard / Soft——
9Fabio Di Giannantonio02:03.786+0.49111337.5Medium / Soft——
10Brad Binder02:03.837+0.54211346.1Medium / Soft——
11Alex Rins02:03.967+0.67212341.7Hard / Soft2:06.060+1.17%5Soft
12Miguel Oliveira02:04.063+0.76812342.8Medium / Soft——
13Joan Mir02:04.065+0.77011335.4Hard / Soft——
14Raul Fernandez02:04.164+0.86910339.6Hard / Soft——
15Maverick Viñales02:04.262+0.96711341.7Hard / Soft——
16Michele Pirro02:04.274+0.97910338.5Medium / Soft——
17Jack Miller02:04.359+1.06411341.7Medium / Soft2:04.603—5Soft
18Franco Morbidelli02:04.423+1.12811335.4Medium / Soft2:04.668+0.05%6Soft
19Takaaki Nakagami02:04.432+1.13710334.3Medium / Soft2:05.130+0.42%4Soft
20Stefan Bradl02:04.607+1.31212335.4Soft / Soft——
21Augusto Fernandez02:04.862+1.56712335.4Medium / Soft2:06.317+1.38%5Soft
22Jonas Folger02:05.761+2.46614338.5Medium / Soft2:10.917+5.07%5Soft
Q1 · 15.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Johann Zarco02:02.387—6339.6Hard / Soft
2Marco Bezzecchi02:02.523+0.1366341.7Medium / Soft
3Joan Mir02:02.743+0.3567337.5Hard / Soft
4Franco Morbidelli02:02.950+0.5636338.5Hard / Soft
5Miguel Oliveira02:03.065+0.6786340.6Hard / Soft
6Fabio Di Giannantonio02:03.350+0.9637335.4Medium / Soft
7Takaaki Nakagami02:03.403+1.0166332.3Medium / Soft
8Michele Pirro02:03.452+1.0656339.6Medium / Soft
9Raul Fernandez02:03.527+1.1405339.6Hard / Soft
10Augusto Fernandez02:03.798+1.4116337.5Medium / Soft
11Stefan Bradl02:03.907+1.5206338.5Hard / Soft
12Jonas Folger02:07.597+5.2105334.3Medium / Soft
Q2 · 15.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Francesco Bagnaia02:01.892—7338.5Hard / Soft
2Alex Rins02:02.052+0.1607337.5Hard / Soft
3Luca Marini02:02.181+0.2897339.6Medium / Soft
4Alex Marquez02:02.242+0.3506339.6Hard / Soft
5Marco Bezzecchi02:02.268+0.3766343.9Hard / Soft
6Aleix Espargaro02:02.539+0.6477342.8Hard / Soft
7Fabio Quartararo02:02.749+0.8577335.4Hard / Soft
8Maverick Viñales02:02.882+0.9906339.6Hard / Soft
9Johann Zarco02:03.062+1.1706339.6Hard / Soft
10Jack Miller02:03.084+1.1927339.6Hard / Soft
11Brad Binder02:03.107+1.2157342.8Hard / Soft
12Jorge Martin02:03.292+1.4003337.5Hard / Soft
Sprint · 15.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia20:35.2701210Hard / Soft2:03.498—8Soft
2Alex Rins+2.545910Hard / Soft2:03.787+0.23%8Soft
3Jorge Martin+4.706710Hard / Soft2:03.791+0.24%8Soft
4Aleix Espargaro+5.052610Hard / Soft2:03.730+0.19%8Soft
5Brad Binder+8.175510Hard / Soft2:04.086+0.48%8Soft
6Marco Bezzecchi+8.877410Hard / Soft2:04.151+0.53%8Soft
7Luca Marini+9.453310Hard / Soft2:04.147+0.53%8Soft
8Miguel Oliveira+10.768210Hard / Soft2:04.484+0.80%8Soft
9Jack Miller+12.448110Hard / Soft2:04.727+1.00%8Soft
10Maverick Viñales+12.739010Hard / Soft2:04.442+0.76%8Soft
11Johann Zarco+14.251010Hard / Soft2:04.554+0.86%8Soft
12Joan Mir+14.988010Hard / Soft2:04.967+1.19%8Soft
13Takaaki Nakagami+15.592010Hard / Soft2:04.824+1.07%8Soft
14Franco Morbidelli+16.534010Hard / Soft2:04.910+1.14%8Soft
15Raul Fernandez+19.290010Hard / Soft2:04.901+1.14%7Soft
16Augusto Fernandez+23.128010Hard / Soft2:05.502+1.62%8Soft
17Fabio Di Giannantonio+25.626010Hard / Soft2:05.693+1.78%7Soft
18Stefan Bradl+25.787010Hard / Soft2:05.758+1.83%8Soft
19Fabio Quartararo+27.169010Hard / Soft2:03.915+0.34%7Soft
20Jonas Folger+46.973010Hard / Soft2:08.012+3.66%8Soft
RetiredAlex Marquez06Hard / Soft2:03.508+0.01%4Soft
RetiredMichele Pirro05Hard / Soft——
Warm Up · 16.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Francesco Bagnaia02:03.988—5349.5Medium / Soft
2Fabio Quartararo02:04.299+0.3115345.0Medium / Soft
3Miguel Oliveira02:04.381+0.3935345.0Medium / Soft
4Maverick Viñales02:04.412+0.4245347.2Soft / Soft
5Brad Binder02:04.559+0.5715350.6Soft / Soft
6Jack Miller02:04.563+0.5755349.5Soft / Soft
7Alex Rins02:04.709+0.7215342.8Soft / Soft
8Johann Zarco02:04.783+0.7954341.7Soft / Soft
9Franco Morbidelli02:04.827+0.8394345.0Medium / Soft
10Takaaki Nakagami02:04.871+0.8835341.7Medium / Soft
11Marco Bezzecchi02:04.927+0.9395350.6Medium / Soft
12Luca Marini02:05.074+1.0865345.0Medium / Soft
13Fabio Di Giannantonio02:05.080+1.0925350.6Medium / Soft
14Joan Mir02:05.211+1.2235343.9Soft / Soft
15Stefan Bradl02:05.637+1.6495347.2Soft / Soft
16Michele Pirro02:05.867+1.8795347.2Medium / Soft
17Augusto Fernandez02:05.914+1.9265335.4Medium / Soft
18Raul Fernandez02:05.923+1.9355343.9Medium / Soft
19Alex Marquez02:06.464+2.4764345.0Medium / Soft
20Aleix Espargaro02:07.002+3.0145347.2Medium / Soft
21Jonas Folger02:08.643+4.6555337.5Medium / Soft
22Jorge Martin02:08.652+4.6645345.0Medium / Soft
Race · 16.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Alex Rins41:14.6492520Hard / Soft2:03.595+0.13%18Soft
2Luca Marini+3.4982020Hard / Soft2:03.688+0.21%18Soft
3Fabio Quartararo+4.9361620Hard / Soft2:03.767+0.27%17Soft
4Maverick Viñales+8.3181320Hard / Soft2:03.862+0.35%17Soft
5Miguel Oliveira+9.9891120Hard / Soft2:03.860+0.35%18Soft
6Marco Bezzecchi+12.0491020missing / missing2:04.127+0.57%18missing
7Johann Zarco+12.242920Hard / Soft2:04.213+0.64%17Soft
8Franco Morbidelli+20.399820Hard / Soft2:04.412+0.80%18Soft
9Fabio Di Giannantonio+27.981720Hard / Soft2:04.870+1.17%17Soft
10Augusto Fernandez+28.217620Hard / Soft2:04.966+1.25%16Soft
11Michele Pirro+32.370520missing / missing2:04.942+1.23%18missing
12Jonas Folger+68.065420Hard / Soft2:06.900+2.81%18Soft
13Brad Binder+83.012320Hard / Soft2:04.664+1.00%16Soft
Out on lap 1Aleix Espargaro00— / ———
Out on lap 1Alex Marquez00— / ———
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia07missing / Soft2:03.448+0.02%4Soft
RetiredJack Miller06Hard / Soft2:03.429—4Soft
RetiredJoan Mir08Hard / Soft2:04.398+0.79%6Soft
Out on lap 1Jorge Martin00— / ———
RetiredRaul Fernandez06Hard / Soft2:04.824+1.13%4Soft
RetiredStefan Bradl018Hard / Soft2:04.836+1.14%16Soft
RetiredTakaaki Nakagami011Hard / Soft2:04.368+0.76%9Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.826*—+0.221Medium4
Fabio Di Giannantonio2:04.959*+1.133+0.320Medium3
Maverick Viñales2:05.211*+1.385+0.292Medium3
Miguel Oliveira2:05.242+1.416+0.193Medium5
Augusto Fernandez2:06.083*+2.257+0.437Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21
Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Francesco Bagnaia130%60%73%84%14%1
Alex Rins223%54%70%84%14%2
Luca Marini313%40%57%71%27%7
Alex Marquez411%38%60%81%14%—
Marco Bezzecchi56%24%44%68%27%6
Aleix Espargaro65%20%38%66%27%4
Fabio Quartararo74%19%38%75%14%19
Maverick Viñales83%15%32%72%14%10
Johann Zarco92%10%24%67%14%11
Jack Miller101%7%19%62%14%9
Brad Binder111%5%14%57%14%5
Jorge Martin121%4%10%50%14%3
Joan Mir130%2%5%28%39%12
Franco Morbidelli140%2%6%37%14%14
Miguel Oliveira150%1%3%29%16%8
Fabio Di Giannantonio160%1%3%24%14%17
Takaaki Nakagami170%0%2%16%14%13
Michele Pirro180%0%1%12%19%—
Raul Fernandez190%0%1%8%14%15
Augusto Fernandez200%0%0%6%27%16
Stefan Bradl210%0%0%4%19%18
Jonas Folger220%0%0%3%19%20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Francesco Bagnaia127%51%63%72%27%—
Alex Rins217%44%60%76%21%1
Luca Marini37%30%52%85%7%2
Alex Marquez416%44%60%74%22%—
Marco Bezzecchi56%22%41%75%15%6
Aleix Espargaro610%32%49%70%24%—
Fabio Quartararo76%24%44%77%14%3
Maverick Viñales83%10%25%66%11%4
Johann Zarco91%7%18%55%18%7
Jack Miller101%4%12%45%24%—
Brad Binder113%12%27%70%12%13
Jorge Martin122%11%24%59%27%—
Joan Mir130%2%5%28%21%—
Franco Morbidelli140%2%5%30%18%8
Miguel Oliveira151%3%9%43%18%5
Fabio Di Giannantonio160%0%1%12%22%9
Takaaki Nakagami170%1%3%23%16%—
Michele Pirro180%0%1%10%21%11
Raul Fernandez190%0%1%12%16%—
Augusto Fernandez200%0%1%9%14%10
Stefan Bradl210%0%0%4%19%—
Jonas Folger220%0%0%3%17%12

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Aleix Espargaro21% → 32%+115% → 10%
Alex Marquez34% → 44%+911% → 16%
Jorge Martin3% → 11%+90% → 2%
Dropping
Luca Marini52% → 30%−2218% → 7%
Marco Bezzecchi29% → 22%−78% → 6%
Alex Rins49% → 44%−521% → 17%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.498—+0.221Soft8
Alex Marquez2:03.508+0.010+0.356Soft4
Aleix Espargaro2:03.730+0.232+0.209Soft8
Alex Rins2:03.787+0.289+0.217Soft8
Jorge Martin2:03.791+0.293+0.457Soft8
Fabio Quartararo2:03.915+0.417+0.275Soft7
Brad Binder2:04.086+0.588+0.327Soft8
Luca Marini2:04.147+0.649+0.308Soft8
Marco Bezzecchi2:04.151+0.653+0.553Soft8
Maverick Viñales2:04.442+0.944+0.292Soft8
Miguel Oliveira2:04.484+0.986+0.193Soft8
Johann Zarco2:04.554+1.056+0.344Soft8
Jack Miller2:04.727+1.229+0.105Soft8
Takaaki Nakagami2:04.824+1.326+0.359Soft8
Raul Fernandez2:04.901+1.403+0.667Soft7
Franco Morbidelli2:04.910+1.412+0.512Soft8
Joan Mir2:04.967+1.469+0.562Soft8
Augusto Fernandez2:05.502+2.004+0.437Soft8
Fabio Di Giannantonio2:05.693+2.195+0.320Soft7
Stefan Bradl2:05.758+2.260+0.530Soft8
Jonas Folger2:08.012+4.514—Soft8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100
Position index
14%
Pole wins
62%
Front row on the podium
0.79
Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

71
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
5/20
Laps led by the winner
Enea Bastianini
2.058 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Luca Marini (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2022 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Alex Rins2:04.074—+0.217Soft18
Enea Bastianini2:04.082+0.008+0.319Soft18
Joan Mir2:04.125+0.051+0.562Soft18
Marc Marquez2:04.194+0.120+0.210Soft17
Jack Miller2:04.281+0.207+0.105Soft18
Fabio Quartararo2:04.344+0.270+0.275Soft18
Francesco Bagnaia2:04.364+0.290+0.221Soft18
Jorge Martin2:04.459+0.385+0.457Soft18
Johann Zarco2:04.532+0.458+0.344Soft17
Brad Binder2:04.560+0.486+0.327Soft18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
  • 2023Alex RinsHonda
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2019Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20255/2223%
20246/2227%
20239/2241%
20222/248%
20212/2110%
20194/2218%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft92%+0.41%−0.0091310.8
Medium8%+1.02%+0.0940018.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.