Round 3 of 20 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2023

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

14.04 – 16.04.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	41:14.649	25
2	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+3.498	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.936	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.318	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+9.989	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+12.049	10
7	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+12.242	9
8	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+20.399	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+27.981	7
10	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+28.217	6
11	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+32.370	5
12	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+68.065	4
13	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+83.012	3
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:35.270	12
2	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+2.545	9
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.706	7
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+5.052	6
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.175	5
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+8.877	4
7	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+9.453	3
8	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+10.768	2
9	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.448	1
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.739	0
11	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+14.251	0
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.988	0
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+15.592	0
14	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.534	0
15	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+19.290	0
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+23.128	0
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+25.626	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.787	0
19	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+27.169	0
20	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+46.973	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% · from P1	0.73 / 0.73	3.0 / 3.3
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25%	Alex Rins · 21% · from P2	0.81 / 0.81	3.3 / 3.3
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 27%	Alex Rins · 17% · from P2	0.76 / 0.81	3.6 / 5.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	2:03.429	—	+0.105	Soft	4
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.448	+0.019	+0.221	Soft	4
Alex Rins	2:03.595	+0.166	+0.217	Soft	18
Luca Marini	2:03.688	+0.259	+0.308	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:03.767	+0.338	+0.275	Soft	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:03.860	+0.431	+0.193	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	2:03.862	+0.433	+0.292	Soft	17
Marco Bezzecchi	2:04.127	+0.698	+0.553	missing	18
Johann Zarco	2:04.213	+0.784	+0.344	Soft	17
Takaaki Nakagami	2:04.368	+0.939	+0.359	Soft	9
Joan Mir	2:04.398	+0.969	+0.562	Soft	6
Franco Morbidelli	2:04.412	+0.983	+0.512	Soft	18
Brad Binder	2:04.664	+1.235	+0.327	Soft	16
Raul Fernandez	2:04.824	+1.395	+0.667	Soft	4
Stefan Bradl	2:04.836	+1.407	+0.530	Soft	16
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:04.870	+1.441	+0.320	Soft	17
Michele Pirro	2:04.942	+1.513	+0.267	missing	18
Augusto Fernandez	2:04.966	+1.537	+0.437	Soft	16
Jonas Folger	2:06.900	+3.471	—	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

3.498 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P5.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Stefan Bradl (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

10/10

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.545 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Stefan Bradl (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:11:28	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:35	Michele Pirro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:14:15	Michele Pirro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:16:43	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:13	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:19	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:07	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:42	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:15:46	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:29	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:53	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:02	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:50	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:51	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Miguel Oliveira	15	8	+7
Jack Miller	10	3	+7
Raul Fernandez	19	13	+6
Maverick Viñales	8	10	−2
Luca Marini	3	5	−2
Marco Bezzecchi	5	6	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	15→5	+6.8
Augusto Fernandez	20→10	+5.0
Jonas Folger	22→12	+4.3
Johann Zarco	9→7	+1.0
Marco Bezzecchi	5→6	−0.6
Brad Binder	11→13	−3.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.76%	+0.008	1	3	6.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.3 °C

Air

max 22.0 °C

35%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

20 km/h

Wind

gusts 32 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Luca Marini	02:03.250	—	14	341.7	Medium / Soft	2:05.807	+1.03%	5	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.400	+0.150	15	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	02:03.528	+0.278	16	342.8	Soft / Soft	2:06.035	+1.22%	4	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	02:03.551	+0.301	16	337.5	Medium / Soft	2:04.522	—	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	02:03.676	+0.426	14	337.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.602	+0.87%	5	Medium
6	Jorge Martin	02:03.708	+0.458	15	343.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.792	+0.542	14	342.8	Medium / Medium	2:05.643	+0.90%	6	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	02:03.897	+0.647	16	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.139	+0.889	16	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	02:04.204	+0.954	17	342.8	Medium / Soft	2:05.762	+1.00%	10	Medium
11	Joan Mir	02:04.312	+1.062	14	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.342	+1.092	16	336.4	Medium / Soft	2:06.385	+1.50%	5	Medium
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.364	+1.114	15	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	02:04.452	+1.202	16	337.5	Soft / Medium	2:05.822	+1.04%	5	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.661	+1.411	13	339.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Raul Fernandez	02:04.904	+1.654	15	336.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:04.906	+1.656	16	338.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	02:05.054	+1.804	14	337.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	02:05.732	+2.482	17	334.3	Medium / Medium	2:07.373	+2.29%	11	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	02:05.771	+2.521	15	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:06.985	+1.98%	8	Medium
21	Michele Pirro	02:05.772	+2.522	13	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Jonas Folger	02:08.176	+4.926	12	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 14.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	02:02.178	—	20	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.241	+0.063	21	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Alex Rins	02:02.395	+0.217	20	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:04.039	—	5	Soft
4	Luca Marini	02:02.416	+0.238	21	342.8	Medium / Soft	2:04.353	+0.25%	5	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	02:02.682	+0.504	21	339.6	Hard / Soft	2:04.106	+0.05%	5	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	02:02.717	+0.539	22	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:04.164	+0.10%	10	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.721	+0.543	20	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Brad Binder	02:02.735	+0.557	18	343.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.765	+0.587	20	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	02:02.841	+0.663	19	339.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.459	+0.34%	5	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.878	+0.700	22	342.8	Hard / Soft	2:06.372	+1.88%	6	Soft
12	Joan Mir	02:02.904	+0.726	17	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.208	+1.030	20	335.4	Hard / Soft	2:04.686	+0.52%	5	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	02:03.329	+1.151	17	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	02:03.340	+1.162	14	339.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.443	+1.265	18	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Michele Pirro	02:03.685	+1.507	18	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	02:03.690	+1.512	19	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:04.079	+1.901	17	339.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Stefan Bradl	02:04.129	+1.951	18	333.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	02:04.561	+2.383	16	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Jonas Folger	02:06.529	+4.351	17	334.3	Medium / Soft	—			—

Free practice · 15.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.295	—	12	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	02:03.380	+0.085	13	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Luca Marini	02:03.534	+0.239	7	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Jorge Martin	02:03.608	+0.313	11	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.662	+0.367	11	334.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Marco Bezzecchi	02:03.679	+0.384	11	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	02:03.709	+0.414	11	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.730	+0.435	12	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:03.786	+0.491	11	337.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	02:03.837	+0.542	11	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	02:03.967	+0.672	12	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:06.060	+1.17%	5	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.063	+0.768	12	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	02:04.065	+0.770	11	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Raul Fernandez	02:04.164	+0.869	10	339.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Maverick Viñales	02:04.262	+0.967	11	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Michele Pirro	02:04.274	+0.979	10	338.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Jack Miller	02:04.359	+1.064	11	341.7	Medium / Soft	2:04.603	—	5	Soft
18	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.423	+1.128	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	2:04.668	+0.05%	6	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.432	+1.137	10	334.3	Medium / Soft	2:05.130	+0.42%	4	Soft
20	Stefan Bradl	02:04.607	+1.312	12	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	02:04.862	+1.567	12	335.4	Medium / Soft	2:06.317	+1.38%	5	Soft
22	Jonas Folger	02:05.761	+2.466	14	338.5	Medium / Soft	2:10.917	+5.07%	5	Soft

Q1 · 15.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	02:02.387	—	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.523	+0.136	6	341.7	Medium / Soft
3	Joan Mir	02:02.743	+0.356	7	337.5	Hard / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	02:02.950	+0.563	6	338.5	Hard / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	02:03.065	+0.678	6	340.6	Hard / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:03.350	+0.963	7	335.4	Medium / Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.403	+1.016	6	332.3	Medium / Soft
8	Michele Pirro	02:03.452	+1.065	6	339.6	Medium / Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	02:03.527	+1.140	5	339.6	Hard / Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	02:03.798	+1.411	6	337.5	Medium / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	02:03.907	+1.520	6	338.5	Hard / Soft
12	Jonas Folger	02:07.597	+5.210	5	334.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 15.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.892	—	7	338.5	Hard / Soft
2	Alex Rins	02:02.052	+0.160	7	337.5	Hard / Soft
3	Luca Marini	02:02.181	+0.289	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	02:02.242	+0.350	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.268	+0.376	6	343.9	Hard / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.539	+0.647	7	342.8	Hard / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.749	+0.857	7	335.4	Hard / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	02:02.882	+0.990	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	02:03.062	+1.170	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
10	Jack Miller	02:03.084	+1.192	7	339.6	Hard / Soft
11	Brad Binder	02:03.107	+1.215	7	342.8	Hard / Soft
12	Jorge Martin	02:03.292	+1.400	3	337.5	Hard / Soft

Sprint · 15.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	20:35.270	12	10	Hard / Soft	2:03.498	—	8	Soft
2	Alex Rins	+2.545	9	10	Hard / Soft	2:03.787	+0.23%	8	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+4.706	7	10	Hard / Soft	2:03.791	+0.24%	8	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	+5.052	6	10	Hard / Soft	2:03.730	+0.19%	8	Soft
5	Brad Binder	+8.175	5	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.086	+0.48%	8	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+8.877	4	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.151	+0.53%	8	Soft
7	Luca Marini	+9.453	3	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.147	+0.53%	8	Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	+10.768	2	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.484	+0.80%	8	Soft
9	Jack Miller	+12.448	1	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.727	+1.00%	8	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	+12.739	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.442	+0.76%	8	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+14.251	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.554	+0.86%	8	Soft
12	Joan Mir	+14.988	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.967	+1.19%	8	Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+15.592	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.824	+1.07%	8	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+16.534	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.910	+1.14%	8	Soft
15	Raul Fernandez	+19.290	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:04.901	+1.14%	7	Soft
16	Augusto Fernandez	+23.128	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:05.502	+1.62%	8	Soft
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+25.626	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:05.693	+1.78%	7	Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	+25.787	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:05.758	+1.83%	8	Soft
19	Fabio Quartararo	+27.169	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:03.915	+0.34%	7	Soft
20	Jonas Folger	+46.973	0	10	Hard / Soft	2:08.012	+3.66%	8	Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	6	Hard / Soft	2:03.508	+0.01%	4	Soft
Retired	Michele Pirro		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 16.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.988	—	5	349.5	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.299	+0.311	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.381	+0.393	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	02:04.412	+0.424	5	347.2	Soft / Soft
5	Brad Binder	02:04.559	+0.571	5	350.6	Soft / Soft
6	Jack Miller	02:04.563	+0.575	5	349.5	Soft / Soft
7	Alex Rins	02:04.709	+0.721	5	342.8	Soft / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	02:04.783	+0.795	4	341.7	Soft / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.827	+0.839	4	345.0	Medium / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.871	+0.883	5	341.7	Medium / Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.927	+0.939	5	350.6	Medium / Soft
12	Luca Marini	02:05.074	+1.086	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:05.080	+1.092	5	350.6	Medium / Soft
14	Joan Mir	02:05.211	+1.223	5	343.9	Soft / Soft
15	Stefan Bradl	02:05.637	+1.649	5	347.2	Soft / Soft
16	Michele Pirro	02:05.867	+1.879	5	347.2	Medium / Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	02:05.914	+1.926	5	335.4	Medium / Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	02:05.923	+1.935	5	343.9	Medium / Soft
19	Alex Marquez	02:06.464	+2.476	4	345.0	Medium / Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	02:07.002	+3.014	5	347.2	Medium / Soft
21	Jonas Folger	02:08.643	+4.655	5	337.5	Medium / Soft
22	Jorge Martin	02:08.652	+4.664	5	345.0	Medium / Soft

Race · 16.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	41:14.649	25	20	Hard / Soft	2:03.595	+0.13%	18	Soft
2	Luca Marini	+3.498	20	20	Hard / Soft	2:03.688	+0.21%	18	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	+4.936	16	20	Hard / Soft	2:03.767	+0.27%	17	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	+8.318	13	20	Hard / Soft	2:03.862	+0.35%	17	Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	+9.989	11	20	Hard / Soft	2:03.860	+0.35%	18	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+12.049	10	20	missing / missing	2:04.127	+0.57%	18	missing
7	Johann Zarco	+12.242	9	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.213	+0.64%	17	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	+20.399	8	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.412	+0.80%	18	Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+27.981	7	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.870	+1.17%	17	Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	+28.217	6	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.966	+1.25%	16	Soft
11	Michele Pirro	+32.370	5	20	missing / missing	2:04.942	+1.23%	18	missing
12	Jonas Folger	+68.065	4	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.900	+2.81%	18	Soft
13	Brad Binder	+83.012	3	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.664	+1.00%	16	Soft
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Alex Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	7	missing / Soft	2:03.448	+0.02%	4	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	6	Hard / Soft	2:03.429	—	4	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	8	Hard / Soft	2:04.398	+0.79%	6	Soft
Out on lap 1	Jorge Martin		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	6	Hard / Soft	2:04.824	+1.13%	4	Soft
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	18	Hard / Soft	2:04.836	+1.14%	16	Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	11	Hard / Soft	2:04.368	+0.76%	9	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.826*	—	+0.221	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:04.959*	+1.133	+0.320	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	2:05.211*	+1.385	+0.292	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	2:05.242	+1.416	+0.193	Medium	5
Augusto Fernandez	2:06.083*	+2.257	+0.437	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	60%	73%	84%	14%	1
Alex Rins	2	23%	54%	70%	84%	14%	2
Luca Marini	3	13%	40%	57%	71%	27%	7
Alex Marquez	4	11%	38%	60%	81%	14%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	5	6%	24%	44%	68%	27%	6
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	20%	38%	66%	27%	4
Fabio Quartararo	7	4%	19%	38%	75%	14%	19
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	15%	32%	72%	14%	10
Johann Zarco	9	2%	10%	24%	67%	14%	11
Jack Miller	10	1%	7%	19%	62%	14%	9
Brad Binder	11	1%	5%	14%	57%	14%	5
Jorge Martin	12	1%	4%	10%	50%	14%	3
Joan Mir	13	0%	2%	5%	28%	39%	12
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	2%	6%	37%	14%	14
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	3%	29%	16%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	14%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	0%	2%	16%	14%	13
Michele Pirro	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	—
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	14%	15
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	27%	16
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	18
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	27%	51%	63%	72%	27%	—
Alex Rins	2	17%	44%	60%	76%	21%	1
Luca Marini	3	7%	30%	52%	85%	7%	2
Alex Marquez	4	16%	44%	60%	74%	22%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	5	6%	22%	41%	75%	15%	6
Aleix Espargaro	6	10%	32%	49%	70%	24%	—
Fabio Quartararo	7	6%	24%	44%	77%	14%	3
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	10%	25%	66%	11%	4
Johann Zarco	9	1%	7%	18%	55%	18%	7
Jack Miller	10	1%	4%	12%	45%	24%	—
Brad Binder	11	3%	12%	27%	70%	12%	13
Jorge Martin	12	2%	11%	24%	59%	27%	—
Joan Mir	13	0%	2%	5%	28%	21%	—
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	2%	5%	30%	18%	8
Miguel Oliveira	15	1%	3%	9%	43%	18%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	0%	1%	12%	22%	9
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	1%	3%	23%	16%	—
Michele Pirro	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	11
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	1%	12%	16%	—
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	9%	14%	10
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	—
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	12

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Aleix Espargaro	21% → 32%	+11	5% → 10%
Alex Marquez	34% → 44%	+9	11% → 16%
Jorge Martin	3% → 11%	+9	0% → 2%
Dropping
Luca Marini	52% → 30%	−22	18% → 7%
Marco Bezzecchi	29% → 22%	−7	8% → 6%
Alex Rins	49% → 44%	−5	21% → 17%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.498	—	+0.221	Soft	8
Alex Marquez	2:03.508	+0.010	+0.356	Soft	4
Aleix Espargaro	2:03.730	+0.232	+0.209	Soft	8
Alex Rins	2:03.787	+0.289	+0.217	Soft	8
Jorge Martin	2:03.791	+0.293	+0.457	Soft	8
Fabio Quartararo	2:03.915	+0.417	+0.275	Soft	7
Brad Binder	2:04.086	+0.588	+0.327	Soft	8
Luca Marini	2:04.147	+0.649	+0.308	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	2:04.151	+0.653	+0.553	Soft	8
Maverick Viñales	2:04.442	+0.944	+0.292	Soft	8
Miguel Oliveira	2:04.484	+0.986	+0.193	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	2:04.554	+1.056	+0.344	Soft	8
Jack Miller	2:04.727	+1.229	+0.105	Soft	8
Takaaki Nakagami	2:04.824	+1.326	+0.359	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	2:04.901	+1.403	+0.667	Soft	7
Franco Morbidelli	2:04.910	+1.412	+0.512	Soft	8
Joan Mir	2:04.967	+1.469	+0.562	Soft	8
Augusto Fernandez	2:05.502	+2.004	+0.437	Soft	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:05.693	+2.195	+0.320	Soft	7
Stefan Bradl	2:05.758	+2.260	+0.530	Soft	8
Jonas Folger	2:08.012	+4.514	—	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marco Bezzecchi	50	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	41	−9
3	Johann Zarco	35	−15
4	Alex Marquez	33	−17
5	Maverick Viñales	32	−18
6	Jack Miller	25	−25

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/20

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

2.058 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Luca Marini (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	2:04.074	—	+0.217	Soft	18
Enea Bastianini	2:04.082	+0.008	+0.319	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:04.125	+0.051	+0.562	Soft	18
Marc Marquez	2:04.194	+0.120	+0.210	Soft	17
Jack Miller	2:04.281	+0.207	+0.105	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:04.344	+0.270	+0.275	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:04.364	+0.290	+0.221	Soft	18
Jorge Martin	2:04.459	+0.385	+0.457	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	2:04.532	+0.458	+0.344	Soft	17
Brad Binder	2:04.560	+0.486	+0.327	Soft	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	92%	+0.41%	−0.009	1	3	10.8
Medium	8%	+1.02%	+0.094	0	0	18.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.