Round 5 of 20 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2023

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

12.05 – 14.05.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	41:37.970	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.256	20
3	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.795	16
4	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+6.281	13
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.726	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.638	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.023	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.826	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+16.370	7
10	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+17.828	6
11	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+29.735	5
12	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+36.135	4
13	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+49.808	3
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:59.037	12
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.840	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.632	7
4	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+3.418	6
5	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.541	5
6	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.483	4
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+5.224	3
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.359	2
9	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.336	1
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+9.439	0
11	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+12.388	0
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+14.125	0
13	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.121	0
14	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.383	0
15	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.591	0
16	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+19.415	0
17	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+26.992	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 27%	Jorge Martin · 7% · from P5	0.78 / 0.78	2.2 / 3.5
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 23%	Marco Bezzecchi · 5% · from P7	0.97 / 0.97	3.6 / 3.7
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 20%	Marco Bezzecchi · 14% · from P7	0.93 / 0.97	3.2 / 6.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

17/27

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

4.256 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jonas Folger, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Takaaki Nakagami (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.840 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P10 to P2.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Marco Bezzecchi (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	16	11	+5
Augusto Fernandez	12	9	+3
Jack Miller	4	2	+2
Brad Binder	10	16	−6
Aleix Espargaro	11	14	−3
Francesco Bagnaia	1	4	−3

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.46%	−0.009	1	3	7.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.9 °C

Air

max 19.8 °C

63%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 20 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	27%	61%	77%	87%	12%	3
Marc Marquez	2	18%	51%	69%	82%	17%	5
Luca Marini	3	12%	40%	60%	76%	22%	4
Jack Miller	4	10%	38%	63%	85%	12%	—
Jorge Martin	5	7%	27%	54%	84%	12%	1
Maverick Viñales	6	5%	21%	45%	81%	12%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	7	4%	15%	32%	70%	22%	7
Alex Marquez	8	3%	9%	22%	59%	32%	15
Johann Zarco	9	3%	7%	19%	70%	12%	6
Brad Binder	10	2%	6%	14%	65%	12%	2
Aleix Espargaro	11	2%	4%	9%	44%	32%	8
Augusto Fernandez	12	2%	4%	8%	44%	22%	—
Fabio Quartararo	13	2%	3%	7%	42%	12%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	14	1%	3%	5%	30%	22%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	1%	3%	4%	27%	12%	12
Joan Mir	16	0%	2%	2%	13%	42%	14
Franco Morbidelli	17	1%	2%	3%	15%	12%	13
Alex Rins	18	0%	2%	3%	10%	12%	11
Danilo Petrucci	19	0%	1%	3%	7%	19%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	1%	2%	6%	19%	17
Jonas Folger	21	0%	1%	2%	4%	14%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	18%	41%	55%	69%	28%	—
Marc Marquez	2	9%	30%	50%	78%	16%	—
Luca Marini	3	13%	41%	61%	88%	7%	—
Jack Miller	4	13%	36%	53%	72%	25%	—
Jorge Martin	5	20%	45%	59%	71%	28%	2
Maverick Viñales	6	2%	14%	33%	75%	11%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	7	14%	39%	58%	78%	17%	1
Alex Marquez	8	0%	5%	15%	57%	23%	—
Johann Zarco	9	5%	20%	41%	73%	19%	3
Brad Binder	10	5%	23%	47%	80%	12%	6
Aleix Espargaro	11	1%	5%	17%	60%	24%	5
Augusto Fernandez	12	0%	0%	4%	45%	12%	4
Fabio Quartararo	13	0%	1%	6%	50%	14%	7
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	0%	2%	37%	16%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	0%	0%	0%	21%	21%	8
Joan Mir	16	0%	0%	0%	15%	23%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	18%	10
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	0%	14%	21%	—
Danilo Petrucci	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	11
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	27%	12
Jonas Folger	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	25% → 45%	+20	7% → 20%
Marco Bezzecchi	20% → 39%	+20	5% → 14%
Brad Binder	7% → 23%	+15	2% → 5%
Dropping
Marc Marquez	51% → 30%	−22	22% → 9%
Maverick Viñales	28% → 14%	−14	7% → 2%
Luca Marini	50% → 41%	−10	18% → 13%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

The layout

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	87	—
2	Marco Bezzecchi	65	−22
3	Brad Binder	62	−25
4	Jack Miller	49	−38
5	Jorge Martin	48	−39
6	Maverick Viñales	48	−39

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

7/27

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

2.718 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P8.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Fabio Quartararo (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:32.190	—	+0.319	Soft	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.270	+0.080	+0.221	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.281	+0.091	+0.275	Soft	25
Joan Mir	1:32.293	+0.103	+0.562	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.303	+0.113	+0.209	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.351	+0.161	+0.105	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:32.491	+0.301	+0.344	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.670	+0.480	+0.359	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:32.695	+0.505	+0.210	Soft	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.731	+0.541	+0.193	Soft	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.66%	−0.003	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.