Round 19 of 20 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2023

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

17.11 – 19.11.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	41:43.654	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.734	20
3	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+4.408	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.488	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.246	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.620	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.828	9
8	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.239	8
9	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.509	7
10	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+14.819	6
11	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.964	5
12	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+17.431	4
13	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+17.807	3
14	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.673	2
15	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+21.455	1
16	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+21.474	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+22.142	0
18	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+27.194	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+27.740	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	20:52.634	12
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.391	9
3	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+2.875	7
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.370	6
5	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.957	5
6	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.239	4
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.761	3
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+6.454	2
9	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+8.285	1
10	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+8.314	0
11	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+9.596	0
12	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.173	0
13	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+10.646	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+11.117	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+12.163	0
16	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+12.745	0
17	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+19.285	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+26.238	0
19	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+28.446	0
20	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+35.553	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Luca Marini · 26%	Jorge Martin · 7% · from P5	0.87 / 0.87	2.2 / 2.3
Race (after the grid)	Luca Marini · 32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio · 20% · from P2	0.70 / 0.70	3.6 / 3.6
Race (after the sprint)	Fabio Di Giannantonio · 28% ✓	Fabio Di Giannantonio · 28% · from P2	0.83 / 0.70	2.9 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:53.617	—	+0.221	Hard	20
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.622	+0.005	+0.320	Hard	20
Luca Marini	1:53.732	+0.115	+0.308	Hard	20
Maverick Viñales	1:53.785	+0.168	+0.292	Hard	20
Brad Binder	1:53.827	+0.210	+0.327	Hard	20
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.890	+0.273	+0.275	Hard	20
Enea Bastianini	1:53.960	+0.343	+0.319	Hard	20
Alex Marquez	1:54.046	+0.429	+0.356	Hard	20
Jack Miller	1:54.134	+0.517	+0.105	Hard	20
Jorge Martin	1:54.294	+0.677	+0.457	Hard	20
Johann Zarco	1:54.300	+0.683	+0.344	Hard	20
Joan Mir	1:54.322	+0.705	+0.562	Hard	20
Marc Marquez	1:54.330	+0.713	+0.210	Hard	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:54.350	+0.733	+0.553	Hard	20
Augusto Fernandez	1:54.354	+0.737	+0.437	Hard	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:54.410	+0.793	+0.209	Hard	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:54.447	+0.830	+0.512	Hard	20
Raul Fernandez	1:54.558	+0.941	+0.667	Hard	20
Pol Espargaro	1:54.584	+0.967	+0.406	Hard	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:54.882	+1.265	+0.359	Hard	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/22

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Di Giannantonio

2.734 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P13 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Francesco Bagnaia (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

7/11

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.391 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P14 to P8.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Luca Marini (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	20:04:12	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	20:04:12	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	20:04:12	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	20:06:26	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	20:04:36	Iker Lecuona	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	20:14:23	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for riders #27 & #41

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	10	6	+4
Franco Morbidelli	17	13	+4
Francesco Bagnaia	4	1	+3
Augusto Fernandez	11	19	−8
Raul Fernandez	9	15	−6
Jorge Martin	5	8	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	10→5	+3.6
Fabio Quartararo	13→7	+3.5
Maverick Viñales	8→4	+3.3
Augusto Fernandez	11→15	−5.7
Johann Zarco	6→12	−6.0
Raul Fernandez	9→17	−9.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	100%	+0.60%	+0.005	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.8 °C

Air

max 22.2 °C

72%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 13 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:56.393	—	17	345.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
2	Johann Zarco	01:56.565	+0.172	15	342.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:56.622	+0.229	17	347.2	Hard / Hard	1:58.712	+0.17%	11	Hard
4	Raul Fernandez	01:56.685	+0.292	16	340.6	Soft / Hard	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.804	+0.411	17	342.8	Hard / Hard	1:59.372	+0.73%	12	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:56.819	+0.426	14	343.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.820	+0.427	14	346.1	Hard / Medium	2:00.217	+1.44%	5	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:56.830	+0.437	16	342.8	Hard / Hard	1:59.724	+1.02%	5	Hard
9	Pol Espargaro	01:56.885	+0.492	16	342.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:56.894	+0.501	18	343.9	Hard / Medium	2:00.008	+1.26%	8	Hard
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.961	+0.568	17	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Maverick Viñales	01:56.975	+0.582	13	340.6	Medium / Hard	1:58.705	+0.16%	5	Hard
13	Jack Miller	01:57.060	+0.667	18	340.6	Medium / Hard	2:01.950	+2.90%	5	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	01:57.096	+0.703	12	340.6	Hard / Medium	1:59.164	+0.55%	5	Hard
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.606	+1.213	19	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:59.885	+1.16%	13	Hard
16	Alex Marquez	01:57.835	+1.442	13	340.6	Hard / Medium	1:58.513	—	6	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:57.982	+1.589	16	343.9	Hard / Hard	2:01.654	+2.65%	5	Hard
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.071	+1.678	16	347.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
19	Joan Mir	01:58.177	+1.784	15	342.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
20	Marc Marquez	01:58.193	+1.800	17	338.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	01:58.344	+1.951	18	340.6	Hard / Hard	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.429	+4.036	13	337.5	Hard / Medium	—			—

Practice · 17.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Raul Fernandez	01:52.843	—	20	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:54.998	+0.19%	5	Medium
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.892	+0.049	18	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:52.936	+0.093	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:54.923	+0.13%	7	Hard
4	Brad Binder	01:52.955	+0.112	20	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.212	+0.38%	4	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.033	+0.190	19	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.774	+0.87%	6	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:53.094	+0.251	26	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:56.161	+1.21%	11	Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:53.195	+0.352	21	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.202	+0.359	19	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.159	+0.34%	5	Medium
9	Augusto Fernandez	01:53.289	+0.446	21	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:55.922	+1.00%	5	Soft
10	Marc Marquez	01:53.323	+0.480	20	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Jack Miller	01:53.337	+0.494	18	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:56.030	+1.09%	4	Hard
12	Alex Marquez	01:53.561	+0.718	20	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.564	+0.721	18	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:57.310	+2.21%	4	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:53.696	+0.853	14	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:57.491	+2.37%	5	Soft
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.704	+0.861	23	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.853	+0.94%	11	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:53.778	+0.935	16	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:53.921	+1.078	16	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Enea Bastianini	01:53.937	+1.094	22	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:56.964	+1.91%	8	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.005	+1.162	20	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:56.322	+1.35%	6	Hard
20	Iker Lecuona	01:54.254	+1.411	22	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Fabio Quartararo	01:54.260	+1.417	20	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:54.775	—	5	Medium
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.441	+1.598	22	340.6	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 18.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.531	—	13	340.6	Hard / Soft	1:53.928	+0.17%	6	Hard
2	Jorge Martin	01:53.604	+0.073	13	350.6	Hard / Hard	1:54.788	+0.93%	5	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.604	+0.073	10	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:54.375	+0.57%	5	Hard
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:53.657	+0.126	12	342.8	Hard / Hard	1:53.731	—	5	Hard
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.672	+0.141	12	343.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.899	+0.368	12	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:54.328	+0.53%	4	Hard
7	Johann Zarco	01:53.916	+0.385	11	347.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	01:54.039	+0.508	12	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:54.744	+0.89%	5	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:54.048	+0.517	8	338.5	Hard / Hard	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.069	+0.538	10	345.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
11	Raul Fernandez	01:54.082	+0.551	10	337.5	Hard / Hard	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:54.111	+0.580	12	342.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:54.190	+0.659	9	347.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
14	Luca Marini	01:54.205	+0.674	13	346.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:54.375	+0.844	10	345.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
16	Marc Marquez	01:54.479	+0.948	12	338.5	Hard / Hard	—			—
17	Augusto Fernandez	01:54.541	+1.010	10	339.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Iker Lecuona	01:54.821	+1.290	14	340.6	Hard / Medium	1:58.317	+4.03%	5	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.846	+1.315	11	338.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Pol Espargaro	01:54.866	+1.335	9	342.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Jack Miller	01:55.019	+1.488	12	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:55.453	+1.51%	5	Soft
22	Joan Mir	01:55.370	+1.839	11	346.1	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 18.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:52.382	—	6	339.6	Hard / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:52.437	+0.055	7	340.6	Hard / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:52.504	+0.122	7	345.0	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:52.524	+0.142	7	342.8	Hard / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:52.828	+0.446	7	345.0	Hard / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:52.889	+0.507	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.099	+0.717	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.143	+0.761	6	337.5	Hard / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:53.362	+0.980	7	343.9	Hard / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:53.570	+1.188	6	345.0	Soft / Soft
11	Iker Lecuona	01:53.838	+1.456	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.360	+1.978	6	340.6	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 18.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Luca Marini	01:51.762	—	6	347.2	Soft / Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:51.829	+0.067	7	342.8	Hard / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:51.898	+0.136	3	341.7	Hard / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:52.036	+0.274	7	342.8	Hard / Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:52.058	+0.296	7	345.0	Hard / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:52.101	+0.339	6	340.6	Hard / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:52.103	+0.341	7	340.6	Hard / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:52.175	+0.413	6	340.6	Soft / Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:52.348	+0.586	6	337.5	Hard / Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:52.466	+0.704	6	340.6	Soft / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:52.729	+0.967	6	342.8	Hard / Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:52.784	+1.022	6	342.8	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 18.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	20:52.634	12	11	Hard / Hard	1:53.603	+0.05%	9	Hard
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+0.391	9	11	Hard / Hard	1:53.551	—	9	Hard
3	Luca Marini	+2.875	7	11	Soft / Hard	1:53.920	+0.33%	9	Hard
4	Alex Marquez	+3.370	6	11	Hard / Hard	1:53.815	+0.23%	9	Hard
5	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.957	5	11	Hard / Hard	1:53.903	+0.31%	9	Hard
6	Maverick Viñales	+4.239	4	11	Hard / Hard	1:53.956	+0.36%	9	Hard
7	Brad Binder	+5.761	3	11	Hard / Hard	1:54.111	+0.49%	9	Hard
8	Fabio Quartararo	+6.454	2	11	Soft / Hard	1:53.891	+0.30%	9	Hard
9	Augusto Fernandez	+8.285	1	11	Soft / Hard	1:54.160	+0.54%	9	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	+8.314	0	11	Hard / Hard	1:54.209	+0.58%	9	Hard
11	Marc Marquez	+9.596	0	11	Hard / Hard	1:54.218	+0.59%	9	Hard
12	Jack Miller	+10.173	0	11	Soft / Hard	1:54.291	+0.65%	9	Hard
13	Marco Bezzecchi	+10.646	0	11	Soft / Hard	1:54.099	+0.48%	9	Hard
14	Raul Fernandez	+11.117	0	11	Hard / Hard	1:54.346	+0.70%	9	Hard
15	Franco Morbidelli	+12.163	0	11	Soft / Hard	1:54.326	+0.68%	9	Hard
16	Pol Espargaro	+12.745	0	11	Hard / Hard	1:54.516	+0.85%	9	Hard
17	Iker Lecuona	+19.285	0	11	Soft / Hard	1:55.002	+1.28%	9	Hard
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+26.238	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:56.026	+2.18%	9	Medium
19	Joan Mir	+28.446	0	11	Hard / Medium	1:56.222	+2.35%	9	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	+35.553	0	11	Hard / Hard	1:54.234	+0.60%	9	Hard
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	1	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Miguel Oliveira		0	0	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 19.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:53.346	—	6	354.0	Hard / Hard
2	Johann Zarco	01:53.582	+0.236	5	354.0	Hard / Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.687	+0.341	6	354.0	Hard / Hard
4	Alex Marquez	01:53.805	+0.459	5	345.0	Hard / Hard
5	Brad Binder	01:53.873	+0.527	6	350.6	Hard / Hard
6	Jack Miller	01:53.877	+0.531	6	351.7	Hard / Hard
7	Marc Marquez	01:53.960	+0.614	6	345.0	Hard / Hard
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.011	+0.665	6	349.5	Hard / Hard
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.054	+0.708	6	355.2	Hard / Hard
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:54.110	+0.764	6	355.2	Hard / Hard
11	Raul Fernandez	01:54.177	+0.831	5	345.0	Hard / Hard
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:54.182	+0.836	5	347.2	Hard / Hard
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:54.307	+0.961	6	346.1	Hard / Hard
14	Joan Mir	01:54.349	+1.003	5	349.5	Hard / Hard
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.414	+1.068	5	347.2	Hard / Hard
16	Jorge Martin	01:54.492	+1.146	5	348.3	Hard / Hard
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.684	+1.338	6	346.1	Hard / Hard
18	Pol Espargaro	01:54.885	+1.539	5	348.3	Hard / Hard
19	Enea Bastianini	01:55.071	+1.725	5	352.9	Hard / Hard
20	Luca Marini	01:55.210	+1.864	6	352.9	Hard / Hard
21	Iker Lecuona	01:55.258	+1.912	6	346.1	Hard / Hard
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		—	0	0.0	— / —

Race · 19.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	41:43.654	25	22	Hard / Hard	1:53.622	+0.00%	20	Hard
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.734	20	22	Hard / Hard	1:53.617	—	20	Hard
3	Luca Marini	+4.408	16	22	Soft / Hard	1:53.732	+0.10%	20	Hard
4	Maverick Viñales	+4.488	13	22	Hard / Hard	1:53.785	+0.15%	20	Hard
5	Brad Binder	+7.246	11	22	Hard / Hard	1:53.827	+0.19%	20	Hard
6	Alex Marquez	+7.620	10	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.046	+0.38%	20	Hard
7	Fabio Quartararo	+7.828	9	22	Soft / Hard	1:53.890	+0.24%	20	Hard
8	Enea Bastianini	+8.239	8	22	Hard / Hard	1:53.960	+0.30%	20	Hard
9	Jack Miller	+11.509	7	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.134	+0.46%	20	Hard
10	Jorge Martin	+14.819	6	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.294	+0.60%	20	Hard
11	Marc Marquez	+14.964	5	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.330	+0.63%	20	Hard
12	Johann Zarco	+17.431	4	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.300	+0.60%	20	Hard
13	Marco Bezzecchi	+17.807	3	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.350	+0.65%	20	Hard
14	Joan Mir	+18.673	2	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.322	+0.62%	20	Hard
15	Augusto Fernandez	+21.455	1	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.354	+0.65%	20	Hard
16	Franco Morbidelli	+21.474	0	22	Soft / Hard	1:54.447	+0.73%	20	Hard
17	Raul Fernandez	+22.142	0	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.558	+0.83%	20	Hard
18	Pol Espargaro	+27.194	0	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.584	+0.85%	20	Hard
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+27.740	0	22	Hard / Hard	1:54.882	+1.11%	20	Hard
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	6	Hard / Hard	1:54.410	+0.70%	4	Hard
Out on lap 1	Iker Lecuona		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	57%	8
2	Alex Marquez	41%	2 ✓
3	Johann Zarco	30%	1 ✓
4	Marco Bezzecchi	21%	3
5	Fabio Quartararo	19%	4
6	Jack Miller	10%	6
7	Miguel Oliveira	8%	7
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	5
9	Pol Espargaro	3%	9
10	Iker Lecuona	3%	11
11	Joan Mir	4%	10
12	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	34%	63%	88%	2
2	Aleix Espargaro	23%	51%	81%	10
3	Jorge Martin	14%	47%	77%	5
4	Maverick Viñales	5%	34%	69%	8
5	Raul Fernandez	4%	27%	53%	9
6	Brad Binder	7%	23%	55%	11
7	Luca Marini	1%	11%	38%	1
8	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	14%	38%	4
9	Johann Zarco	3%	9%	28%	6
10	Alex Marquez	2%	9%	26%	3
11	Marc Marquez	3%	11%	29%	7
12	Augusto Fernandez	1%	3%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Miguel Oliveira	17	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Aleix Espargaro	10	16	+6	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for riders #27 & #41
Race	Iker Lecuona	20	21	+1	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for riders #27 & #41

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Luca Marini	1	26%	55%	71%	82%	17%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2	22%	55%	72%	86%	12%	2
Alex Marquez	3	13%	41%	60%	78%	18%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	41%	66%	92%	3%	5
Jorge Martin	5	7%	30%	54%	90%	3%	1
Johann Zarco	6	5%	20%	41%	79%	12%	10
Marc Marquez	7	5%	16%	36%	79%	8%	11
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	12%	27%	76%	7%	6
Raul Fernandez	9	2%	8%	20%	73%	3%	14
Brad Binder	10	2%	6%	15%	64%	3%	7
Augusto Fernandez	11	1%	5%	10%	47%	16%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	3%	6%	40%	12%	13
Fabio Quartararo	13	1%	3%	6%	33%	7%	8
Enea Bastianini	14	1%	2%	4%	24%	10%	20
Jack Miller	15	0%	2%	3%	19%	7%	12
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	12%	25%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	3%	15
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	18%	16
Joan Mir	19	0%	1%	1%	4%	23%	19
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	12%	18
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	1%	2%	5%	17
Miguel Oliveira	22	0%	0%	1%	2%	8%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Luca Marini	1	25%	60%	79%	90%	9%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2	28%	60%	72%	79%	19%	1
Alex Marquez	3	9%	31%	53%	72%	25%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	4	12%	38%	58%	72%	26%	2
Jorge Martin	5	19%	50%	67%	76%	23%	10
Johann Zarco	6	1%	8%	22%	66%	19%	12
Marc Marquez	7	0%	2%	11%	55%	17%	11
Maverick Viñales	8	4%	21%	44%	80%	13%	4
Raul Fernandez	9	0%	1%	5%	39%	20%	17
Brad Binder	10	1%	8%	24%	71%	15%	5
Augusto Fernandez	11	0%	2%	10%	54%	17%	15
Marco Bezzecchi	12	0%	3%	14%	61%	14%	13
Fabio Quartararo	13	2%	13%	34%	77%	13%	7
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	1%	6%	44%	19%	8
Jack Miller	15	0%	0%	2%	23%	24%	9
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	0%	0%	11%	24%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	1%	20%	15%	16
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	21%	18
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	28%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	19
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	31%	—
Miguel Oliveira	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	21%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	27% → 50%	+23	7% → 19%
Fabio Quartararo	3% → 13%	+10	0% → 2%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	51% → 60%	+9	20% → 28%
Dropping
Marc Marquez	18% → 2%	−16	4% → 0%
Johann Zarco	22% → 8%	−14	5% → 1%
Alex Marquez	41% → 31%	−9	14% → 9%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.551	—	+0.320	Hard	9
Jorge Martin	1:53.603	+0.052	+0.457	Hard	9
Alex Marquez	1:53.815	+0.264	+0.356	Hard	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.891	+0.340	+0.275	Hard	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:53.903	+0.352	+0.221	Hard	9
Luca Marini	1:53.920	+0.369	+0.308	Hard	9
Maverick Viñales	1:53.956	+0.405	+0.292	Hard	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:54.099	+0.548	+0.553	Hard	9
Brad Binder	1:54.111	+0.560	+0.327	Hard	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:54.160	+0.609	+0.437	Hard	9
Johann Zarco	1:54.209	+0.658	+0.344	Hard	9
Marc Marquez	1:54.218	+0.667	+0.210	Hard	9
Enea Bastianini	1:54.234	+0.683	+0.319	Hard	9
Jack Miller	1:54.291	+0.740	+0.105	Hard	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:54.326	+0.775	+0.512	Hard	9
Raul Fernandez	1:54.346	+0.795	+0.667	Hard	9
Pol Espargaro	1:54.516	+0.965	+0.406	Hard	9
Iker Lecuona	1:55.002	+1.451	+0.094	Hard	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:56.026	+2.475	+0.359	Medium	9
Joan Mir	1:56.222	+2.671	+0.562	Medium	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	412	—
2	Jorge Martin	398	−14
3	Marco Bezzecchi	323	−89
4	Brad Binder	254	−158
5	Johann Zarco	200	−212
6	Aleix Espargaro	198	−214

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/22

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

0.346 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Darryn Binder, from P24 to P16.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Raul Fernandez (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:54.748	—	+0.319	Medium	20
Pol Espargaro	1:54.797	+0.049	+0.406	Soft	20
Brad Binder	1:54.880	+0.132	+0.327	Medium	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:54.911	+0.163	+0.209	Medium	20
Marc Marquez	1:54.985	+0.237	+0.210	Soft	20
Joan Mir	1:55.032	+0.284	+0.562	Medium	19
Francesco Bagnaia	1:55.074	+0.326	+0.221	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:55.173	+0.425	+0.217	Medium	20
Johann Zarco	1:55.185	+0.437	+0.344	Soft	20
Jorge Martin	1:55.214	+0.466	+0.457	Soft	9

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	58%	+0.47%	+0.012	1	2	10.1
Soft	42%	+0.53%	−0.002	0	1	8.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.