Round 20 of 20 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2023

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

24.11 – 26.11.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:58.535	25
2	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.360	20
3	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.347	16
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.176	13
5	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+4.636	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+4.708	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.736	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.014	8
9	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+9.486	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.556	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+12.001	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+21.695	4
13	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+43.297	3
14	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+0.000	2
DNF	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:38.827	12
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.190	9
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.122	7
4	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.106	6
5	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.253	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+4.400	4
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+4.502	3
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.578	2
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.910	1
10	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+6.095	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+7.674	0
12	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.098	0
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.513	0
14	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+12.453	0
15	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.599	0
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+13.787	0
17	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+13.887	0
18	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+14.943	0
19	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+20.378	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+25.017	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 29%	Jorge Martin · 6% · from P6	0.80 / 0.80	2.8 / 2.8
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 22% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 22% · from P1	0.75 / 0.75	2.7 / 2.8
Race (after the sprint)	Johann Zarco · 24%	Francesco Bagnaia · 12% · from P1	0.82 / 0.75	2.9 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:30.554	—	+0.105	Medium	16
Brad Binder	1:30.659	+0.105	+0.327	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.746	+0.192	+0.320	Medium	24
Johann Zarco	1:30.794	+0.240	+0.344	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.836	+0.282	+0.221	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:30.862	+0.308	+0.292	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.902	+0.348	+0.512	Medium	25
Enea Bastianini	1:30.955	+0.401	+0.319	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	1:30.960	+0.406	+0.667	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.003	+0.449	+0.209	Medium	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.010	+0.456	+0.437	Medium	7
Alex Marquez	1:31.012	+0.458	+0.356	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:31.020	+0.466	+0.308	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:31.089	+0.535	+0.406	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.118	+0.564	+0.275	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:31.340	+0.786	+0.217	Medium	17
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.420	+0.866	+0.359	Medium	25
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.070	+1.516	+0.781	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

14/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.176 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P19 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Pol Espargaro (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

6/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.190 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P9 to P3.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Marco Bezzecchi (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:09:10	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards time penalty for riders #10 & #21 due to technical infringement.
Race	15:02:36	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:10:19	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:10:19	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:16:03	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:16:53	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:26:57	Brad Binder	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:28:19	Brad Binder	Position penalty	To drop 1 position - COMPLETED
Race	15:30:27	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:31:21	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:33:23	Lorenzo Savadori	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	15:34:10	Lorenzo Savadori	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:38:14	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards time penalty for rider #49 due to technical infringement.

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 4 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Pol Espargaro	18	14	+4
Franco Morbidelli	19	15	+4
Luca Marini	17	13	+4
Augusto Fernandez	13	18	−5
Johann Zarco	2	5	−3
Maverick Viñales	4	6	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Franco Morbidelli	19→7	+7.4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11→4	+5.3
Luca Marini	17→9	+4.1
Takaaki Nakagami	16→12	+0.5
Pol Espargaro	18→14	−0.2
Maverick Viñales	4→10	−5.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+0.60%	+0.010	1	3	7.3
Soft	5%	+0.50%	+0.063	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.2 °C

Air

max 18.7 °C

54%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 18 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:30.191	—	19	333.7	Medium / Medium	1:31.654	+0.85%	5	Medium
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.378	+0.187	17	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.622	+0.81%	5	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:30.450	+0.259	22	333.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.490	+0.299	19	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:30.934	+0.06%	12	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:30.534	+0.343	19	332.1	Soft / Soft	1:30.935	+0.06%	5	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.556	+0.365	20	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.537	+0.72%	11	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:30.564	+0.373	20	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:30.882	—	5	Medium
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.567	+0.376	20	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.527	+0.71%	7	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	01:30.811	+0.620	18	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.292	+0.45%	6	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	01:30.857	+0.666	17	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.193	+0.34%	5	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:30.874	+0.683	20	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:31.738	+0.94%	6	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:30.901	+0.710	19	327.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.969	+0.778	18	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:31.160	+0.31%	6	Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	01:31.046	+0.855	22	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.414	+0.59%	11	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.112	+0.921	20	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.678	+0.88%	5	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:31.252	+1.061	23	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:31.782	+0.99%	18	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:31.297	+1.106	20	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:31.494	+0.67%	5	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.443	+1.252	15	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.473	+0.65%	5	Medium
19	Alex Rins	01:31.488	+1.297	20	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.726	+0.93%	5	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.514	+1.323	15	328.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:31.553	+1.362	5	325.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.997	+1.806	19	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.462	+2.84%	5	Medium

Practice · 24.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:29.142	—	27	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:30.909	+0.79%	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:29.289	+0.147	24	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:29.296	+0.154	26	333.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.751	+0.61%	8	Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.395	+0.253	23	325.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.396	+0.254	22	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:30.471	+0.30%	6	Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:29.402	+0.260	27	337.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.643	+0.49%	11	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:29.459	+0.317	27	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:30.199	—	5	Medium
8	Raul Fernandez	01:29.470	+0.328	25	330.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:29.481	+0.339	20	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.140	+1.04%	10	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.571	+0.429	16	332.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Enea Bastianini	01:29.573	+0.431	25	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:30.368	+0.19%	5	Medium
12	Alex Marquez	01:29.614	+0.472	25	325.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.615	+0.473	27	330.5	Hard / Soft	1:30.372	+0.19%	11	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.775	+0.633	23	328.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.801	+0.659	21	333.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.002	+0.860	24	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.621	+0.47%	5	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:30.343	+1.201	27	330.5	Hard / Medium	1:31.434	+1.37%	13	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.445	+1.303	24	330.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Alex Rins	01:30.464	+1.322	18	330.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.795	+1.653	24	328.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Pol Espargaro	01:30.940	+1.798	22	332.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 25.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.167	—	15	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:30.729	+0.46%	11	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:30.186	+0.019	15	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:30.918	+0.67%	6	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.193	+0.026	15	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:30.496	+0.20%	7	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.213	+0.046	14	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.699	+1.54%	10	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.217	+0.050	11	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	01:30.272	+0.105	15	333.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.312	—	7	Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:30.274	+0.107	14	330.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	01:30.314	+0.147	14	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:30.694	+0.42%	10	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:30.330	+0.163	13	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.861	+0.61%	5	Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.403	+0.236	8	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:30.637	+0.36%	5	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:30.445	+0.278	14	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:30.726	+0.46%	7	Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:30.482	+0.315	14	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:30.875	+0.62%	5	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.587	+0.420	15	328.9	Medium / Soft	1:31.000	+0.76%	6	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.600	+0.433	13	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.152	+2.04%	5	Soft
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.614	+0.447	15	324.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.242	+1.03%	8	Soft
16	Luca Marini	01:30.701	+0.534	13	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:30.955	+0.71%	5	Medium
17	Jack Miller	01:30.702	+0.535	16	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.122	+0.90%	11	Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.821	+0.654	14	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.316	+1.11%	7	Soft
19	Pol Espargaro	01:30.891	+0.724	12	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.328	+1.13%	5	Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:30.970	+0.803	12	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:31.209	+0.99%	5	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.769	+1.602	15	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.361	+3.38%	9	Medium

Q1 · 25.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.054	—	8	330.5	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:29.196	+0.142	9	325.8	Soft / Soft
3	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.233	+0.179	9	325.8	Soft / Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	01:29.389	+0.335	9	332.1	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.613	+0.559	9	327.4	Medium / Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.864	+0.810	9	324.3	Medium / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:29.901	+0.847	9	332.1	Soft / Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:29.953	+0.899	9	328.9	Soft / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.045	+0.991	9	328.9	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:30.257	+1.203	9	328.9	Medium / Soft
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.044	+1.990	8	328.9	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 25.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:28.931	—	8	330.5	Soft / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.023	+0.092	7	333.7	Soft / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:29.144	+0.213	8	332.1	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:29.161	+0.230	8	330.5	Soft / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:29.171	+0.240	8	330.5	Soft / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:29.182	+0.251	9	330.5	Medium / Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.223	+0.292	9	332.1	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:29.261	+0.330	3	324.3	Soft / Soft
9	Marc Marquez	01:29.275	+0.344	7	328.9	Soft / Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	01:29.438	+0.507	9	327.4	Soft / Soft
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.510	+0.579	9	327.4	Soft / Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.797	+0.866	8	335.4	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 25.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:38.827	12	13	Medium / Soft	1:30.100	—	11	Soft
2	Brad Binder	+0.190	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.192	+0.10%	11	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	+2.122	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.259	+0.18%	11	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	+3.106	6	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.652	+0.61%	11	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	+4.253	5	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.562	+0.51%	11	Medium
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+4.400	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.396	+0.33%	10	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	+4.502	3	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.591	+0.55%	11	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	+5.578	2	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.593	+0.55%	11	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+5.910	1	13	Medium / Soft	1:30.478	+0.42%	10	Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	+6.095	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.490	+0.43%	10	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+7.674	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:30.597	+0.55%	11	Soft
12	Jack Miller	+8.098	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.611	+0.57%	11	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	+9.513	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.757	+0.73%	11	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	+12.453	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.082	+1.09%	11	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	+12.599	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.716	+0.68%	11	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+13.787	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.021	+1.02%	11	Soft
17	Luca Marini	+13.887	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.748	+0.72%	11	Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	+14.943	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.002	+1.00%	11	Medium
19	Alex Rins	+20.378	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.527	+1.58%	9	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+25.017	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.907	+2.01%	11	Soft
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—

Warm Up · 26.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:29.984	—	7	333.7	Soft / Medium	1:30.796	+0.29%	5	Medium
2	Brad Binder	01:30.018	+0.034	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:30.096	+0.112	7	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:30.535	—	5	Medium
4	Raul Fernandez	01:30.105	+0.121	6	328.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Marc Marquez	01:30.125	+0.141	7	327.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.766	+0.26%	5	Medium
6	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.209	+0.225	7	325.8	Soft / Medium	1:30.655	+0.13%	5	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.296	+0.312	7	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.193	+0.73%	4	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:30.422	+0.438	7	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.302	+0.85%	5	Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:30.425	+0.441	7	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.736	+0.22%	5	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:30.440	+0.456	7	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:31.874	+1.48%	4	Medium
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.527	+0.543	7	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:33.488	+3.26%	5	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.571	+0.587	7	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:30.730	+0.22%	5	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.754	+0.770	7	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.711	+4.61%	5	Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:30.781	+0.797	7	330.5	Soft / Medium	1:31.322	+0.87%	5	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:30.824	+0.840	7	328.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.629	+1.21%	5	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.835	+0.851	7	328.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.081	+1.71%	4	Soft
17	Maverick Viñales	01:30.847	+0.863	6	333.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.004	+1.020	7	322.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.877	+2.59%	5	Soft
19	Alex Marquez	01:31.082	+1.098	6	325.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.854	+1.870	6	325.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Race · 26.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:58.535	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.836	+0.31%	25	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	+0.360	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:30.794	+0.27%	25	Medium
3	Brad Binder	+2.347	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.659	+0.12%	25	Medium
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+3.176	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.746	+0.21%	24	Medium
5	Raul Fernandez	+4.636	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.960	+0.45%	25	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+4.708	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.012	+0.51%	25	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	+4.736	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.902	+0.38%	25	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	+8.014	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.003	+0.50%	25	Medium
9	Luca Marini	+9.486	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.020	+0.52%	25	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	+10.556	6	27	Hard / Soft	1:30.862	+0.34%	25	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	+12.001	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.118	+0.62%	24	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.695	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.420	+0.96%	25	Medium
13	Lorenzo Savadori	+43.297	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.070	+1.67%	20	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	+0.000	2	25	Hard / Medium	1:31.089	+0.59%	22	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	19	Hard / Medium	1:31.340	+0.87%	17	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	9	Hard / Medium	1:31.010	+0.50%	7	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	9	Hard / Medium	1:30.955	+0.44%	7	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	18	Hard / Medium	1:30.554	—	16	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Out on lap 1	Marco Bezzecchi		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.369*	—	+0.553	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:30.471*	+0.102	+0.457	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:30.488*	+0.119	+0.356	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:30.585*	+0.216	+0.359	Medium	4
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.597*	+0.228	+0.221	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:30.769*	+0.400	+0.344	Medium	3
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.844*	+0.475	+0.209	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.907*	+0.538	+0.512	Medium	4
Lorenzo Savadori	1:31.965*	+1.596	+0.781	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Marquez	57%	2 ✓
2	Enea Bastianini	41%	4
3	Fabio Quartararo	30%	5
4	Francesco Bagnaia	21%	1 ✓
5	Franco Morbidelli	19%	9
6	Augusto Fernandez	10%	3
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	6
8	Luca Marini	4%	7
9	Alex Rins	3%	10
10	Pol Espargaro	3%	8
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	34%	64%	88%	7
2	Jorge Martin	23%	51%	80%	6
3	Maverick Viñales	14%	47%	77%	1
4	Marc Marquez	5%	33%	68%	9
5	Brad Binder	4%	27%	52%	5
6	Johann Zarco	7%	23%	55%	3
7	Alex Marquez	2%	11%	39%	8
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	14%	38%	11
9	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	9%	29%	2
10	Raul Fernandez	2%	9%	26%	10
11	Jack Miller	3%	11%	29%	4
12	Aleix Espargaro	1%	3%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Maverick Viñales	1	4	+3

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	29%	65%	83%	95%	3%	5
Johann Zarco	2	19%	50%	70%	86%	11%	9
Jack Miller	3	13%	44%	68%	90%	7%	12
Maverick Viñales	4	11%	37%	61%	88%	7%	4
Brad Binder	5	8%	29%	56%	90%	3%	2
Jorge Martin	6	6%	21%	45%	87%	3%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	7	4%	16%	33%	76%	11%	7
Alex Marquez	8	3%	11%	24%	66%	17%	8
Marc Marquez	9	3%	8%	17%	67%	8%	3
Raul Fernandez	10	2%	6%	14%	62%	3%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	1%	4%	8%	48%	11%	6
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	3%	5%	32%	28%	13
Augusto Fernandez	13	1%	2%	4%	30%	15%	10
Enea Bastianini	14	1%	2%	4%	26%	10%	15
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	3%	19%	7%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	11%	16
Luca Marini	17	0%	1%	2%	9%	16%	17
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	17%	14
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	3%	18
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	13%	19
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	12%	34%	52%	71%	25%	1
Johann Zarco	2	24%	53%	69%	79%	19%	2
Jack Miller	3	2%	13%	29%	68%	24%	—
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	37%	59%	85%	13%	10
Brad Binder	5	20%	51%	69%	84%	15%	3
Jorge Martin	6	19%	48%	63%	76%	22%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	7	2%	12%	31%	76%	14%	—
Alex Marquez	8	1%	7%	21%	62%	25%	6
Marc Marquez	9	6%	24%	46%	78%	17%	—
Raul Fernandez	10	0%	3%	12%	58%	19%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	2%	12%	28%	72%	18%	4
Aleix Espargaro	12	0%	0%	3%	33%	24%	8
Augusto Fernandez	13	1%	5%	15%	62%	17%	—
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	0%	2%	33%	19%	—
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	0%	1%	20%	13%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	0%	0%	11%	14%	12
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	0%	16%	8%	9
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	14
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	6%	15%	7
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	22%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	23%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	23% → 48%	+25	6% → 19%
Brad Binder	30% → 51%	+21	9% → 20%
Marc Marquez	11% → 24%	+13	2% → 6%
Dropping
Jack Miller	40% → 13%	−27	15% → 2%
Francesco Bagnaia	48% → 34%	−14	22% → 12%
Marco Bezzecchi	21% → 12%	−9	5% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:30.100	—	+0.457	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:30.192	+0.092	+0.327	Soft	11
Marc Marquez	1:30.259	+0.159	+0.210	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.396	+0.296	+0.320	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:30.478	+0.378	+0.344	Soft	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:30.490	+0.390	+0.437	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.562	+0.462	+0.221	Medium	11
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.591	+0.491	+0.553	Medium	11
Alex Marquez	1:30.593	+0.493	+0.356	Medium	11
Raul Fernandez	1:30.597	+0.497	+0.667	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:30.611	+0.511	+0.105	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:30.652	+0.552	+0.292	Medium	11
Enea Bastianini	1:30.716	+0.616	+0.319	Medium	11
Luca Marini	1:30.748	+0.648	+0.308	Medium	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.757	+0.657	+0.209	Medium	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.002	+0.902	+0.512	Medium	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.021	+0.921	+0.359	Soft	11
Pol Espargaro	1:31.082	+0.982	+0.406	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:31.527	+1.427	+0.217	Soft	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:31.907	+1.807	+0.781	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	437	—
2	Jorge Martin	416	−21
3	Marco Bezzecchi	326	−111
4	Brad Binder	268	−169
5	Johann Zarco	204	−233
6	Aleix Espargaro	198	−239

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.396 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P24 to P14.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Jorge Martin (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:31.531	—	+0.210	Medium	7
Jack Miller	1:31.685	+0.154	+0.105	Medium	20
Brad Binder	1:31.703	+0.172	+0.327	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.720	+0.189	+0.275	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:31.730	+0.199	+0.217	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:31.742	+0.211	+0.457	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.832	+0.301	+0.193	Medium	25
Joan Mir	1:31.874	+0.343	+0.562	Medium	15
Luca Marini	1:31.876	+0.345	+0.308	Medium	24
Johann Zarco	1:31.932	+0.401	+0.344	Medium	12

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	92%	+0.59%	+0.017	1	3	8.1
Soft	8%	+1.46%	+0.020	0	0	15.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.