Round 18 of 20 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2023

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

10.11 – 12.11.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	39:59.137	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.535	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.562	16
4	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+10.526	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.000	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+16.946	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+18.553	9
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.204	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+19.399	7
10	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+19.740	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+21.189	5
12	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+23.598	4
13	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.079	3
14	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+28.940	2
15	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+29.849	1
16	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+50.960	0
17	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+53.564	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+102.162	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	19:58.713	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.589	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.034	7
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.242	6
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.310	5
6	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.318	4
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+5.307	3
8	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.501	2
9	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+6.420	1
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.241	0
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+8.775	0
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.995	0
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.067	0
14	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+10.643	0
15	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+11.005	0
16	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+11.911	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+13.591	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+15.058	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+16.015	0
20	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+23.484	0
21	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.930	0
22	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+36.501	0
23	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+40.594	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30%	Alex Marquez · 10% · from P4	0.89 / 0.89	2.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26%	Enea Bastianini · 16% · from P3	0.89 / 0.89	1.9 / 2.0
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Enea Bastianini · 16% · from P3	0.88 / 0.89	2.2 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:59.650	—	+0.319	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.704	+0.054	+0.221	Medium	18
Alex Marquez	1:59.708	+0.058	+0.356	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	1:59.992	+0.342	+0.457	Medium	18
Brad Binder	2:00.163	+0.513	+0.327	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.427	+0.777	+0.209	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.442	+0.792	+0.275	Medium	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.518	+0.868	+0.512	Medium	18
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.534	+0.884	+0.553	Medium	18
Raul Fernandez	2:00.564	+0.914	+0.667	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:00.632	+0.982	+0.320	Medium	18
Maverick Viñales	2:00.667	+1.017	+0.292	Medium	18
Johann Zarco	2:00.714	+1.064	+0.344	Medium	18
Jack Miller	2:00.752	+1.102	+0.105	Medium	18
Luca Marini	2:00.776	+1.126	+0.308	Medium	18
Marc Marquez	2:00.842	+1.192	+0.210	Medium	18
Augusto Fernandez	2:00.922	+1.272	+0.437	Medium	18
Pol Espargaro	2:01.058	+1.408	+0.406	Medium	18
Takaaki Nakagami	2:01.311	+1.661	+0.359	Medium	16
Iker Lecuona	2:01.878	+2.228	+0.094	Medium	18
Alvaro Bautista	2:02.134	+2.484	+0.086	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

1.535 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P15 to P7.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Jack Miller (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/10

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

1.589 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P12 to P8.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Marco Bezzecchi (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:08:48	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:08	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:11:32	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:14:06	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:16:00	Raul Fernandez	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	15:20:14	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:26:19	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:28:19	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Enea Bastianini (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marc Marquez	20	15	+5
Jack Miller	10	6	+4
Alex Marquez	4	2	+2
Pol Espargaro	17	22	−5
Brad Binder	7	11	−4
Luca Marini	5	8	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Franco Morbidelli	15→7	+4.8
Enea Bastianini	3→1	+3.1
Alex Marquez	4→2	+2.8
Augusto Fernandez	14→14	−2.8
Maverick Viñales	9→11	−3.0
Luca Marini	5→10	−4.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.76%	+0.065	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

30.7 °C

Air

max 31.0 °C

70%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:59.513	—	16	330.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	01:59.562	+0.049	17	331.2	Soft / Hard	2:00.680	—	5	Hard
3	Johann Zarco	01:59.914	+0.401	14	332.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.055	+0.542	16	331.2	Soft / Hard	2:00.923	+0.20%	9	Hard
5	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.134	+0.621	17	332.3	Soft / Hard	2:01.159	+0.40%	12	Hard
6	Luca Marini	02:00.242	+0.729	18	330.2	Soft / Hard	2:02.098	+1.18%	6	Hard
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.244	+0.731	11	328.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	02:00.251	+0.738	15	329.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	02:00.298	+0.785	14	326.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
10	Augusto Fernandez	02:00.467	+0.954	18	327.2	Soft / Hard	2:01.858	+0.98%	14	Hard
11	Jack Miller	02:00.519	+1.006	17	332.3	Soft / Hard	2:01.607	+0.77%	11	Hard
12	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.594	+1.081	18	329.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.813	+0.94%	14	Hard
13	Raul Fernandez	02:00.780	+1.267	13	326.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.869	+1.356	15	327.2	Soft / Hard	2:02.078	+1.16%	5	Hard
15	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.888	+1.375	16	333.3	Soft / Hard	2:02.308	+1.35%	6	Hard
16	Enea Bastianini	02:00.902	+1.389	18	332.3	Soft / Hard	2:03.855	+2.63%	14	Hard
17	Marc Marquez	02:01.110	+1.597	15	330.2	Soft / Hard	2:01.756	+0.89%	5	Hard
18	Brad Binder	02:01.178	+1.665	16	331.2	Soft / Hard	2:01.858	+0.98%	10	Hard
19	Joan Mir	02:01.348	+1.835	15	331.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
20	Maverick Viñales	02:01.352	+1.839	16	332.3	Soft / Hard	2:01.686	+0.83%	5	Hard
21	Takaaki Nakagami	02:01.537	+2.024	17	325.3	Soft / Hard	2:02.534	+1.54%	6	Hard
22	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.516	+3.003	15	324.3	Soft / Hard	2:03.278	+2.15%	5	Hard
23	Iker Lecuona	02:03.293	+3.780	15	320.4	Soft / Hard	—			—

Practice · 10.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:57.823	—	19	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	01:57.997	+0.174	20	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:58.232	+0.409	20	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.935	+0.30%	5	Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:58.307	+0.484	19	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.571	—	4	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:58.312	+0.489	17	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Luca Marini	01:58.334	+0.511	21	330.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.399	+0.576	19	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.420	+0.597	20	334.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.450	+0.627	21	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.713	+0.12%	5	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:58.487	+0.664	16	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.571	+0.748	19	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:58.605	+0.782	19	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:58.678	+0.855	20	330.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.349	+0.65%	5	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:58.709	+0.886	15	327.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Marc Marquez	01:58.788	+0.965	19	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:58.902	+1.079	19	334.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:58.974	+1.151	17	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:59.024	+1.201	15	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.150	+1.327	16	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.726	+1.903	9	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.755	+1.932	22	327.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.368	+0.67%	4	Medium
22	Alvaro Bautista	02:00.370	+2.547	21	326.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.246	+1.40%	5	Medium
23	Iker Lecuona	02:00.451	+2.628	22	328.2	Medium / Medium	2:02.579	+2.52%	6	Medium

FP2 · 11.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.960	—	11	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.162	—	5	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.985	+0.025	12	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.565	+0.34%	5	Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:59.232	+0.272	12	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.666	+0.42%	5	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:59.260	+0.300	13	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.435	+0.23%	5	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:59.354	+0.394	12	330.2	Medium / Medium	1:59.896	+0.62%	6	Medium
6	Enea Bastianini	01:59.357	+0.397	11	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:59.583	+0.35%	5	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.394	+0.434	11	336.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Marc Marquez	01:59.398	+0.438	10	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Luca Marini	01:59.501	+0.541	13	331.2	Medium / Medium	1:59.716	+0.47%	7	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:59.517	+0.557	12	335.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.131	+0.81%	5	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:59.558	+0.598	11	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.615	+0.655	10	330.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.675	+0.715	11	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Maverick Viñales	01:59.679	+0.719	12	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:59.761	+0.801	13	332.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.005	+0.71%	5	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	01:59.792	+0.832	11	328.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.553	+1.17%	5	Medium
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:59.835	+0.875	12	331.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.459	+1.09%	5	Medium
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.917	+0.957	12	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Joan Mir	02:00.044	+1.084	11	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	02:00.051	+1.091	13	332.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.105	+0.79%	6	Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.185	+1.225	11	326.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.688	+1.728	11	330.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Iker Lecuona	02:00.973	+2.013	12	329.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.480	+1.95%	6	Medium

Q1 · 11.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:57.823	—	6	328.2	Medium / Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	01:57.911	+0.088	6	332.3	Medium / Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.069	+0.246	6	333.3	Medium / Medium
4	Augusto Fernandez	01:58.107	+0.284	6	331.2	Medium / Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.321	+0.498	6	331.2	Medium / Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:58.440	+0.617	7	334.3	Medium / Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:58.555	+0.732	6	335.4	Medium / Medium
8	Raul Fernandez	01:58.623	+0.800	7	329.2	Medium / Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.638	+0.815	7	332.3	Medium / Medium
10	Marc Marquez	01:58.717	+0.894	5	335.4	Medium / Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.886	+1.063	7	329.2	Medium / Medium
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:59.418	+1.595	5	333.3	Medium / Medium
13	Iker Lecuona	01:59.658	+1.835	7	329.2	Medium / Medium

Q2 · 11.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.491	—	7	333.3	Medium / Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:57.549	+0.058	6	337.5	Medium / Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	01:57.590	+0.099	4	334.3	Medium / Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:57.661	+0.170	7	335.4	Medium / Medium
5	Luca Marini	01:57.787	+0.296	4	334.3	Medium / Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:57.805	+0.314	7	336.4	Medium / Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:58.050	+0.559	7	335.4	Medium / Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.080	+0.589	7	331.2	Medium / Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:58.253	+0.762	7	335.4	Medium / Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:58.468	+0.977	7	333.3	Medium / Medium
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.211	+1.720	5	329.2	Medium / Medium
12	Johann Zarco	02:01.848	+4.357	6	334.3	Medium / Medium

Sprint · 11.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	19:58.713	12	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.239	—	8	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+1.589	9	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.389	+0.13%	8	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.034	7	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.576	+0.28%	8	Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	+3.242	6	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.527	+0.24%	8	Medium
5	Brad Binder	+3.310	5	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.551	+0.26%	8	Medium
6	Jack Miller	+4.318	4	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.715	+0.40%	8	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	+5.307	3	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.624	+0.32%	8	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	+5.501	2	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.698	+0.39%	8	Medium
9	Luca Marini	+6.420	1	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.676	+0.37%	8	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	+7.241	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.788	+0.46%	8	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+8.775	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.989	+0.63%	8	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	+9.995	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.947	+0.59%	8	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+10.067	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.093	+0.72%	8	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	+10.643	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.149	+0.76%	8	Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	+11.005	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.033	+0.67%	8	Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	+11.911	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:59.993	+0.63%	8	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	+13.591	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.336	+0.92%	8	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	+15.058	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.318	+0.91%	8	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.015	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.716	+1.24%	7	Medium
20	Iker Lecuona	+23.484	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:01.286	+1.72%	8	Medium
21	Marc Marquez	+24.930	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.330	+0.92%	7	Medium
22	Alvaro Bautista	+36.501	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.714	+1.24%	7	Medium
23	Joan Mir	+40.594	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:00.249	+0.85%	7	Medium

Warm Up · 12.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.218	—	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
2	Brad Binder	01:59.243	+0.025	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	01:59.322	+0.104	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:59.352	+0.134	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.435	+0.217	5	328.2	Medium / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.570	+0.352	5	332.3	Medium / Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.643	+0.425	5	324.3	Medium / Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:59.668	+0.450	5	332.3	Medium / Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:59.688	+0.470	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:59.753	+0.535	5	329.2	Medium / Medium
11	Luca Marini	01:59.756	+0.538	5	328.2	Medium / Medium
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.811	+0.593	5	331.2	Medium / Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:59.996	+0.778	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	02:00.067	+0.849	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.073	+0.855	5	327.2	Medium / Medium
16	Jorge Martin	02:00.073	+0.855	5	334.3	Medium / Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	02:00.110	+0.892	5	325.3	Medium / Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.134	+0.916	5	328.2	Medium / Medium
19	Joan Mir	02:00.267	+1.049	5	326.2	Medium / Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.334	+1.116	5	325.3	Medium / Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	02:00.368	+1.150	5	327.2	Medium / Medium
22	Alvaro Bautista	02:00.701	+1.483	5	329.2	Medium / Medium
23	Iker Lecuona	02:01.383	+2.165	5	321.4	Medium / Medium

Race · 12.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	39:59.137	25	20	Medium / Medium	1:59.650	—	18	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+1.535	20	20	Medium / Medium	1:59.708	+0.05%	18	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.562	16	20	Medium / Medium	1:59.704	+0.05%	18	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	+10.526	13	20	Medium / Medium	1:59.992	+0.29%	18	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	+15.000	11	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.442	+0.66%	18	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.946	10	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.534	+0.74%	18	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	+18.553	9	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.518	+0.73%	18	Medium
8	Jack Miller	+19.204	8	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.752	+0.92%	18	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+19.399	7	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.632	+0.82%	18	Medium
10	Luca Marini	+19.740	6	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.776	+0.94%	18	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	+21.189	5	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.667	+0.85%	18	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+23.598	4	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.714	+0.89%	18	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	+27.079	3	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.842	+1.00%	18	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	+28.940	2	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.922	+1.06%	18	Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	+29.849	1	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.058	+1.18%	18	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	+50.960	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.878	+1.86%	18	Medium
17	Alvaro Bautista	+53.564	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:02.134	+2.08%	18	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+102.162	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.311	+1.39%	16	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	8	Medium / Medium	2:00.427	+0.65%	6	Medium
Retired	Brad Binder		0	11	Medium / Medium	2:00.163	+0.43%	9	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	6	Medium / Medium	2:00.564	+0.76%	4	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:58.709*	—	+0.320	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.162	+0.453	+0.275	Medium	9
Brad Binder	1:59.427	+0.718	+0.327	Medium	11
Alex Marquez	1:59.435	+0.726	+0.356	Medium	13
Johann Zarco	1:59.570	+0.861	+0.344	Medium	7
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.575	+0.866	+0.512	Medium	9
Marc Marquez	1:59.601	+0.892	+0.210	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.738	+1.029	+0.221	Medium	14
Raul Fernandez	1:59.792*	+1.083	+0.667	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:59.848	+1.139	+0.308	Medium	12
Pol Espargaro	1:59.896	+1.187	+0.406	Medium	12
Marco Bezzecchi	1:59.936	+1.227	+0.553	Medium	14
Takaaki Nakagami	2:00.185*	+1.476	+0.359	Medium	3
Alvaro Bautista	2:00.493	+1.784	+0.086	Medium	12
Iker Lecuona	2:00.746*	+2.037	+0.094	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	57%	5
2	Enea Bastianini	41%	2 ✓
3	Marc Marquez	30%	10
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	20%	1 ✓
5	Pol Espargaro	19%	7
6	Augusto Fernandez	10%	4
7	Aleix Espargaro	8%	3
8	Joan Mir	4%	6
9	Raul Fernandez	3%	8
10	Alvaro Bautista	3%	12
11	Miguel Oliveira	4%	9
12	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	11
13	Iker Lecuona	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Alex Marquez	34%	64%	88%	4
2	Brad Binder	24%	51%	81%	7
3	Fabio Quartararo	14%	48%	78%	8
4	Jorge Martin	5%	33%	68%	2
5	Luca Marini	4%	27%	52%	5
6	Francesco Bagnaia	6%	23%	55%	1
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	39%	10
8	Johann Zarco	3%	14%	38%	12
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	9%	28%	9
10	Enea Bastianini	2%	8%	25%	3
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	11%	29%	6
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	3%	20%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	65%	83%	95%	3%	3
Jorge Martin	2	20%	58%	78%	94%	3%	2
Enea Bastianini	3	13%	44%	65%	85%	11%	4
Alex Marquez	4	10%	33%	55%	77%	20%	1
Luca Marini	5	7%	25%	47%	77%	18%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	6	5%	19%	40%	79%	12%	7
Brad Binder	7	4%	16%	38%	85%	3%	5
Fabio Quartararo	8	3%	11%	28%	74%	8%	16
Maverick Viñales	9	3%	8%	19%	68%	8%	10
Jack Miller	10	2%	5%	13%	60%	8%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	1%	4%	9%	49%	12%	13
Johann Zarco	12	1%	3%	7%	41%	12%	8
Aleix Espargaro	13	1%	2%	4%	26%	26%	12
Augusto Fernandez	14	1%	2%	3%	23%	17%	14
Franco Morbidelli	15	1%	2%	3%	21%	3%	11
Joan Mir	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	25%	23
Pol Espargaro	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	19%	15
Raul Fernandez	18	0%	1%	1%	8%	3%	17
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	9%	18
Marc Marquez	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	9%	21
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	12%	19
Alvaro Bautista	22	0%	0%	1%	2%	12%	22
Iker Lecuona	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	6%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	13%	36%	56%	71%	26%	3
Jorge Martin	2	27%	55%	68%	76%	23%	4
Enea Bastianini	3	16%	45%	65%	78%	20%	1
Alex Marquez	4	21%	50%	64%	74%	25%	2
Luca Marini	5	6%	30%	57%	87%	9%	10
Marco Bezzecchi	6	7%	29%	53%	83%	14%	6
Brad Binder	7	9%	35%	59%	83%	14%	—
Fabio Quartararo	8	0%	4%	16%	68%	13%	5
Maverick Viñales	9	0%	5%	18%	71%	13%	11
Jack Miller	10	1%	6%	19%	63%	25%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	0%	1%	5%	47%	19%	9
Johann Zarco	12	0%	3%	12%	60%	19%	12
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	1%	5%	44%	23%	—
Augusto Fernandez	14	0%	0%	1%	27%	18%	14
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	0%	1%	21%	15%	7
Joan Mir	16	0%	0%	0%	13%	28%	—
Pol Espargaro	17	0%	0%	1%	18%	21%	15
Raul Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	18%	—
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	—
Marc Marquez	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	18
Alvaro Bautista	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	21%	17
Iker Lecuona	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	32%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Alex Marquez	34% → 50%	+16	11% → 21%
Brad Binder	19% → 35%	+16	4% → 9%
Jorge Martin	47% → 55%	+8	19% → 27%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	51% → 36%	−15	26% → 13%
Fabio Quartararo	15% → 4%	−11	3% → 0%
Maverick Viñales	10% → 5%	−5	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:59.239	—	+0.356	Medium	8
Jorge Martin	1:59.389	+0.150	+0.457	Medium	8
Enea Bastianini	1:59.527	+0.288	+0.319	Medium	8
Brad Binder	1:59.551	+0.312	+0.327	Medium	8
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.576	+0.337	+0.221	Medium	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:59.624	+0.385	+0.553	Medium	8
Luca Marini	1:59.676	+0.437	+0.308	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:59.698	+0.459	+0.344	Medium	8
Jack Miller	1:59.715	+0.476	+0.105	Medium	8
Maverick Viñales	1:59.788	+0.549	+0.292	Medium	8
Aleix Espargaro	1:59.947	+0.708	+0.209	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.989	+0.750	+0.512	Medium	8
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.993	+0.754	+0.275	Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	2:00.033	+0.794	+0.406	Medium	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:00.093	+0.854	+0.320	Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	2:00.149	+0.910	+0.437	Medium	8
Joan Mir	2:00.249	+1.010	+0.562	Medium	7
Miguel Oliveira	2:00.318	+1.079	+0.193	Medium	8
Marc Marquez	2:00.330	+1.091	+0.210	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	2:00.336	+1.097	+0.667	Medium	8
Alvaro Bautista	2:00.714	+1.475	+0.086	Medium	7
Takaaki Nakagami	2:00.716	+1.477	+0.359	Medium	7
Iker Lecuona	2:01.286	+2.047	+0.094	Medium	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	389	—
2	Jorge Martin	376	−13
3	Marco Bezzecchi	310	−79
4	Brad Binder	249	−140
5	Aleix Espargaro	198	−191
6	Johann Zarco	194	−195

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

11/20

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.270 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Francesco Bagnaia (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:59.696	—	+0.457	Soft	4
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.470	+0.774	+0.553	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.482	+0.786	+0.275	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.528	+0.832	+0.221	Soft	18
Enea Bastianini	2:00.553	+0.857	+0.319	Soft	18
Jack Miller	2:00.937	+1.241	+0.105	Soft	18
Darryn Binder	2:01.039	+1.343	+0.272	Soft	7
Joan Mir	2:01.061	+1.365	+0.562	Soft	17
Alex Rins	2:01.065	+1.369	+0.217	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	2:01.085	+1.389	+0.344	Soft	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+1.19%	+0.069	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.