Round 11 of 20 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2022

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

24.06 – 26.06.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:25.205	25
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+0.444	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.209	16
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.585	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.721	11
6	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.045	10
7	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+4.340	9
8	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.185	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.325	7
10	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.596	6
11	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.783	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+10.617	4
13	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+14.405	3
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+17.681	2
15	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+25.866	1
16	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+29.711	0
17	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+30.296	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+32.225	0
19	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+34.947	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+35.798	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 23%	Francesco Bagnaia · 23% · from P1	0.82 / 0.82	3.0 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.818	—	+0.209	Hard	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.959	+0.141	+0.553	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:32.964	+0.146	+0.105	Soft	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.006	+0.188	+0.221	Hard	24
Maverick Viñales	1:33.022	+0.204	+0.292	Hard	21
Brad Binder	1:33.044	+0.226	+0.327	Hard	23
Jorge Martin	1:33.084	+0.266	+0.457	Hard	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.195	+0.377	+0.359	Soft	19
Joan Mir	1:33.219	+0.401	+0.562	Hard	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.244	+0.426	+0.193	Hard	23
Enea Bastianini	1:33.271	+0.453	+0.319	Soft	23
Johann Zarco	1:33.324	+0.506	+0.344	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:33.344	+0.526	+0.217	Hard	22
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:33.513	+0.695	+0.320	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.661	+0.843	+0.275	Hard	6
Alex Marquez	1:33.895	+1.077	+0.356	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.984	+1.166	+0.226	Hard	21
Stefan Bradl	1:34.026	+1.208	+0.530	Soft	22
Luca Marini	1:34.027	+1.209	+0.308	Hard	23
Lorenzo Savadori	1:34.212	+1.394	+0.781	Hard	20
Raul Fernandez	1:34.230	+1.412	+0.667	Hard	14
Remy Gardner	1:34.247	+1.429	+1.660	Hard	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.297	+1.479	+0.512	Hard	4

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.444 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P11 to P3.

Longest battle: Luca Marini vs Stefan Bradl (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:42	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:01:43	Jack Miller	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:07:32	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:37	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - failed to comply with long lap penalty
Race	14:09:07	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:12:20	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:04	Darryn Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:42	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:20:03	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:41	Takaaki Nakagami	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:26:16		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	14:29:10	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Race: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	21	14	+7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	11	+4
Darryn Binder	24	20	+4
Andrea Dovizioso	17	23	−6
Alex Rins	9	15	−6
Remy Gardner	19	24	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Maverick Viñales	11→3	+6.3
Brad Binder	10→5	+3.6
Joan Mir	14→8	+3.2
Remy Gardner	19→19	−4.6
Johann Zarco	7→13	−6.3
Luca Marini	13→17	−6.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	67%	+0.74%	+0.004	1	2	9.9
Soft	33%	+0.52%	+0.018	0	1	11.4

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.3 °C

Air

max 20.5 °C

62%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:42.589	—	14	294.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.848	—	8	Wet-Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:42.698	+0.109	17	292.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.975	+0.12%	8	Wet-Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:42.891	+0.302	16	291.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.262	+3.26%	10	Wet-Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:42.959	+0.370	17	294.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.863	+1.92%	13	Wet-Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.030	+0.441	13	290.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.464	+0.59%	5	Wet-Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:43.091	+0.502	19	286.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.346	+2.38%	11	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:43.116	+0.527	12	295.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.434	+0.56%	5	Wet-Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:43.150	+0.561	21	297.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.068	+2.12%	9	Wet-Soft
9	Jorge Martin	01:43.189	+0.600	21	290.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.664	+2.69%	15	Wet-Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:43.417	+0.828	19	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.567	+0.69%	11	Wet-Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.424	+0.835	18	297.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:44.894	+0.04%	9	Wet-Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:43.481	+0.892	16	294.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:48.724	+3.70%	11	Wet-Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:43.514	+0.925	19	283.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.344	+3.33%	14	Wet-Soft
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.542	+0.953	17	290.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.569	+4.50%	6	Wet-Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.724	+1.135	13	285.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.223	+4.17%	6	Wet-Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:43.818	+1.229	16	292.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:51.122	+5.98%	5	Wet-Soft
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.248	+1.659	13	290.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.011	+3.02%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	01:44.265	+1.676	15	293.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:51.340	+6.19%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	01:44.285	+1.696	17	284.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.037	+1.13%	6	Wet-Soft
20	Darryn Binder	01:44.602	+2.013	18	290.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.741	+4.67%	13	Wet-Soft
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.825	+2.236	14	288.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.916	+1.02%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:44.968	+2.379	14	288.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:45.282	+2.693	19	282.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.675	+4.60%	9	Wet-Soft
24	Luca Marini	01:45.392	+2.803	18	291.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:48.641	+3.62%	11	Wet-Soft
25	Enea Bastianini	01:46.446	+3.857	11	285.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP2 · 24.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.274	—	19	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.702	+5.90%	14	Wet-Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:33.579	+0.305	20	301.4	Soft / Soft	1:40.476	+5.66%	12	Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:33.611	+0.337	14	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.091	—	5	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:33.833	+0.559	18	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:42.523	+7.82%	9	Wet-Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:33.899	+0.625	21	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:37.561	+2.60%	8	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:33.938	+0.664	17	306.0	Soft / Medium	1:36.170	+1.14%	7	Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:34.127	+0.853	21	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:39.905	+5.06%	11	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:34.286	+1.012	18	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:40.836	+6.04%	10	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:34.312	+1.038	17	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:37.002	+2.01%	6	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	01:34.316	+1.042	15	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:36.864	+1.87%	6	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.504	+1.230	19	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:43.078	+8.40%	14	Wet-Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:34.536	+1.262	18	301.4	Soft / Soft	1:39.705	+4.85%	6	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	01:34.599	+1.325	17	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:39.116	+4.23%	10	Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.650	+1.376	18	301.4	Soft / Soft	1:41.599	+6.84%	13	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.676	+1.402	21	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:38.623	+3.71%	11	Soft
16	Jorge Martin	01:34.823	+1.549	17	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:45.440	+10.88%	4	Wet-Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.828	+1.554	22	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:42.419	+7.71%	13	Wet-Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	01:34.834	+1.560	17	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:39.025	+4.14%	4	Soft
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:34.902	+1.628	18	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:37.806	+2.86%	11	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:35.081	+1.807	19	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:39.522	+4.66%	10	Soft
21	Remy Gardner	01:35.222	+1.948	19	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:43.309	+8.64%	11	Medium
22	Darryn Binder	01:35.571	+2.297	15	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:39.421	+4.55%	6	Soft
23	Stefan Bradl	01:35.951	+2.677	10	302.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	01:36.226	+2.952	17	298.5	Soft / Soft	1:39.194	+4.32%	6	Soft
—	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.360	+8.086	15	306.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

FP3 · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.164	—	19	307.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.476	+0.27%	10	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.205	+0.041	22	301.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.223	—	9	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:32.320	+0.156	20	306.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.355	+0.191	21	305.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.382	+0.218	20	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.440	+0.276	20	312.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.582	+1.46%	5	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:32.487	+0.323	22	307.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.771	+0.59%	11	Soft
8	Jorge Martin	01:32.592	+0.428	21	308.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	01:32.726	+0.562	18	307.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.373	+1.23%	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:32.878	+0.714	19	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Joan Mir	01:32.962	+0.798	20	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.844	+0.67%	5	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.999	+0.835	17	306.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.036	+0.872	16	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:33.128	+0.964	18	302.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.148	+0.984	19	306.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Luca Marini	01:33.177	+1.013	14	308.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Enea Bastianini	01:33.261	+1.097	15	314.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.013	+0.85%	5	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.281	+1.117	21	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:35.132	+2.05%	12	Medium
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.346	+1.182	23	301.4	Medium / Soft	1:37.021	+4.07%	5	Medium
20	Alex Marquez	01:33.605	+1.441	20	307.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:33.639	+1.475	19	306.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:34.180	+2.016	19	304.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	01:34.623	+2.459	19	302.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:34.957	+2.793	19	302.9	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.478	—	16	301.4	Medium / Hard	1:33.024	—	12	Hard
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.578	+0.100	14	309.8	Soft / Hard	1:33.263	+0.26%	5	Hard
3	Jack Miller	01:32.811	+0.333	14	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.388	+0.39%	6	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.855	+0.377	19	307.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.125	+0.11%	17	Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.899	+0.421	17	305.2	Medium / Hard	1:33.720	+0.75%	13	Hard
6	Jorge Martin	01:32.926	+0.448	15	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.542	+0.56%	10	Hard
7	Enea Bastianini	01:32.970	+0.492	14	312.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	01:32.992	+0.514	17	306.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.340	+0.34%	10	Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:33.053	+0.575	15	304.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
10	Luca Marini	01:33.137	+0.659	15	306.0	Soft / Hard	1:33.503	+0.52%	10	Hard
11	Joan Mir	01:33.144	+0.666	15	301.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:33.192	+0.714	15	302.9	Medium / Hard	1:33.477	+0.49%	8	Hard
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.195	+0.717	16	300.7	Medium / Hard	1:33.892	+0.93%	4	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	01:33.375	+0.897	15	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.592	+1.69%	7	Hard
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.377	+0.899	16	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.097	+2.23%	4	Hard
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:33.561	+1.083	17	306.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.742	+0.77%	7	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.611	+1.133	15	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.480	+1.57%	6	Soft
18	Alex Marquez	01:33.663	+1.185	16	305.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Remy Gardner	01:33.697	+1.219	15	301.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.531	+1.62%	10	Hard
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.801	+1.323	16	299.2	Medium / Medium	1:34.990	+2.11%	10	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.114	+1.636	12	302.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.160	+1.22%	4	Soft
22	Stefan Bradl	01:34.220	+1.742	16	305.2	Medium / Hard	1:34.638	+1.74%	6	Hard
23	Raul Fernandez	01:34.748	+2.270	12	302.9	Medium / Hard	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:34.967	+2.489	14	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.858	+3.05%	7	Medium

Q1 · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Brad Binder	01:32.485	—	9	302.9	Medium / Soft
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.550	+0.065	9	306.0	Medium / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:32.787	+0.302	9	302.9	Soft / Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:32.898	+0.413	9	303.7	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.912	+0.427	9	304.4	Soft / Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:33.005	+0.520	6	309.8	Soft / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.009	+0.524	9	303.7	Medium / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:33.029	+0.544	9	307.5	Medium / Soft
9	Remy Gardner	01:33.093	+0.608	8	305.2	Medium / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.096	+0.611	8	298.5	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:33.113	+0.628	9	305.2	Medium / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.467	+0.982	8	302.2	Wet-Soft / Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	01:33.652	+1.167	8	306.0	Medium / Soft
14	Darryn Binder	01:33.998	+1.513	9	301.4	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.504	—	8	309.0	— / —
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.620	+0.116	8	302.9	— / —
3	Jorge Martin	01:31.708	+0.204	7	311.4	Medium / Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.796	+0.292	9	310.6	Medium / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.868	+0.364	8	306.7	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:32.124	+0.620	8	308.3	Soft / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:32.175	+0.671	8	309.0	— / —
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.272	+0.768	8	305.2	— / —
9	Alex Rins	01:32.307	+0.803	8	304.4	— / —
10	Brad Binder	01:32.367	+0.863	8	304.4	Medium / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:32.424	+0.920	8	306.7	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.967	+1.463	8	302.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 26.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.424	—	13	308.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.931	+0.06%	11	Hard
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.548	+0.124	11	302.2	Soft / Hard	1:33.155	+0.30%	7	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	01:32.680	+0.256	13	309.0	Medium / Hard	1:33.285	+0.44%	10	Hard
4	Jorge Martin	01:32.799	+0.375	10	311.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.875	—	5	Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:32.819	+0.395	12	307.5	Soft / Hard	1:33.224	+0.38%	7	Hard
6	Jack Miller	01:32.854	+0.430	13	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.258	+0.41%	8	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.855	+0.431	13	311.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.565	+0.74%	9	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.886	+0.462	12	310.6	Soft / Hard	1:33.720	+0.91%	6	Hard
9	Enea Bastianini	01:32.914	+0.490	13	312.2	Soft / Hard	1:34.567	+1.82%	9	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	01:33.038	+0.614	13	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.042	+1.26%	9	Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:33.041	+0.617	13	301.4	Soft / Hard	1:33.538	+0.71%	8	Hard
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.109	+0.685	12	301.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.284	+0.860	13	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.644	+0.83%	8	Soft
14	Alex Rins	01:33.286	+0.862	11	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.610	+0.79%	6	Soft
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.372	+0.948	11	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.636	+0.82%	6	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.398	+0.974	13	300.0	Soft / Hard	1:33.457	+0.63%	6	Hard
17	Alex Marquez	01:33.407	+0.983	12	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.124	+1.35%	6	Soft
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.452	+1.028	13	302.2	Soft / Hard	1:34.114	+1.33%	6	Hard
19	Brad Binder	01:33.612	+1.188	12	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.990	+1.20%	5	Soft
20	Remy Gardner	01:33.752	+1.328	13	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.153	+1.38%	7	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.867	+1.443	10	303.7	Soft / Hard	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:34.028	+1.604	12	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.325	+2.64%	8	Soft
23	Raul Fernandez	01:34.191	+1.767	12	302.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:34.436	+2.012	12	301.4	Soft / Hard	—			—

Race · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:25.205	25	26	Soft / Hard	1:33.006	+0.20%	24	Hard
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.444	20	26	Medium / Soft	1:32.959	+0.15%	22	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	+1.209	16	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.022	+0.22%	21	Hard
4	Aleix Espargaro	+2.585	13	26	Medium / Hard	1:32.818	—	23	Hard
5	Brad Binder	+2.721	11	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.044	+0.24%	23	Hard
6	Jack Miller	+3.045	10	26	Soft / Soft	1:32.964	+0.16%	22	Soft
7	Jorge Martin	+4.340	9	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.084	+0.29%	20	Hard
8	Joan Mir	+8.185	8	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.219	+0.43%	22	Hard
9	Miguel Oliveira	+8.325	7	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.244	+0.46%	23	Hard
10	Alex Rins	+8.596	6	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.344	+0.57%	22	Hard
11	Enea Bastianini	+9.783	5	26	Soft / Soft	1:33.271	+0.49%	23	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	+10.617	4	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.195	+0.41%	19	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+14.405	3	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.324	+0.55%	22	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+17.681	2	26	Soft / Soft	1:33.513	+0.75%	21	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	+25.866	1	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.895	+1.16%	21	Soft
16	Andrea Dovizioso	+29.711	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.984	+1.26%	21	Hard
17	Luca Marini	+30.296	0	26	Soft / Hard	1:34.027	+1.30%	23	Hard
18	Stefan Bradl	+32.225	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.026	+1.30%	22	Soft
19	Remy Gardner	+34.947	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.247	+1.54%	21	Hard
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+35.798	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.212	+1.50%	20	Hard
Retired	Darryn Binder		0	8	Medium / Hard	—			—
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	11	Medium / Hard	1:33.661	+0.91%	6	Hard
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	8	Medium / Hard	1:34.297	+1.59%	4	Hard
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	18	Medium / Hard	1:34.230	+1.52%	14	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:33.278*	—	+0.217	Medium	3
Marco Bezzecchi	1:33.659	+0.381	+0.553	Medium	12
Joan Mir	1:33.778	+0.500	+0.562	Medium	7
Jorge Martin	1:34.039*	+0.761	+0.457	Medium	3
Remy Gardner	1:34.084*	+0.806	+1.660	Medium	4
Andrea Dovizioso	1:34.120*	+0.842	+0.226	Medium	4
Darryn Binder	1:35.015*	+1.737	+0.272	Medium	3
Lorenzo Savadori	1:35.247	+1.969	+0.781	Medium	5
Raul Fernandez	1:35.506*	+2.228	+0.667	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	56%	2 ✓
2	Joan Mir	42%	4
3	Enea Bastianini	33%	6
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	20%	5
5	Franco Morbidelli	18%	10
6	Brad Binder	9%	1 ✓
7	Luca Marini	8%	3
8	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	12
9	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	7
10	Alex Marquez	3%	11
11	Remy Gardner	4%	9
12	Stefan Bradl	2%	8
13	Raul Fernandez	1%	13
14	Darryn Binder	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	36%	65%	89%	5
2	Fabio Quartararo	25%	52%	83%	2
3	Alex Rins	15%	49%	79%	9
4	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	32%	69%	12
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	27%	52%	4
6	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	22%	55%	1
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	11%	39%	11
8	Jorge Martin	2%	11%	36%	3
9	Johann Zarco	2%	8%	27%	7
10	Jack Miller	2%	8%	25%	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	3%	11%	29%	8
12	Brad Binder	1%	4%	18%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	23%	47%	59%	67%	30%	1
Fabio Quartararo	2	23%	55%	73%	86%	12%	—
Jorge Martin	3	13%	38%	55%	68%	31%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	4	11%	34%	54%	71%	26%	2
Aleix Espargaro	5	8%	28%	47%	69%	25%	4
Jack Miller	6	7%	24%	42%	68%	25%	6
Johann Zarco	7	6%	21%	39%	72%	17%	13
Miguel Oliveira	8	4%	16%	32%	68%	19%	9
Alex Rins	9	2%	11%	24%	63%	22%	10
Brad Binder	10	2%	8%	20%	63%	15%	5
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	6%	15%	60%	11%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	12	1%	4%	12%	52%	15%	12
Luca Marini	13	0%	4%	11%	51%	3%	17
Joan Mir	14	0%	2%	6%	34%	20%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	0%	2%	4%	27%	26%	14
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	21%	11
Andrea Dovizioso	17	0%	1%	2%	18%	12%	16
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	18
Remy Gardner	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	14%	19
Franco Morbidelli	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	16%	—
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	15
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	29%	20
Raul Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	—
Darryn Binder	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	172	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	138	−34
3	Johann Zarco	111	−61
4	Enea Bastianini	100	−72
5	Brad Binder	82	−90
6	Jack Miller	81	−91

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/26

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

2.757 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P20 to P7.

Longest battle: Joan Mir vs Miguel Oliveira (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.346	—	+0.275	Hard	23
Maverick Viñales	1:33.450	+0.104	+0.292	Hard	20
Joan Mir	1:33.561	+0.215	+0.562	Hard	22
Johann Zarco	1:33.618	+0.272	+0.344	Hard	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.650	+0.304	+0.193	Hard	24
Jack Miller	1:33.685	+0.339	+0.105	Hard	13
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.700	+0.354	+0.209	Medium	24
Marc Marquez	1:33.702	+0.356	+0.210	Soft	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.709	+0.363	+0.221	Hard	18
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.761	+0.415	+0.359	Medium	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	64%	+0.43%	−0.008	1	3	8.8
Medium	23%	+0.66%	+0.007	0	0	11.7
Soft	14%	+0.74%	+0.009	0	0	10.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.