Round 10 of 20 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2022

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

17.06 – 19.06.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	41:12.816	25
2	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+4.939	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.372	16
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.113	13
5	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+11.679	11
6	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+13.164	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.405	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.851	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.740	7
10	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+21.611	6
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+23.175	5
12	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+26.548	4
13	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+29.014	3
14	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+30.680	2
15	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+30.812	1
16	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+52.040	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 24% ✓	Fabio Quartararo · 24% · from P2	0.89 / 0.89	2.1 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

4.939 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Raul Fernandez, from P22 to P12.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Remy Gardner (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	15	11	+4
Franco Morbidelli	20	17	+3
Maverick Viñales	9	7	+2
Marco Bezzecchi	11	16	−5
Enea Bastianini	17	21	−4
Remy Gardner	21	23	−2

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	87%	+0.81%	+0.051	0	2	9.0
Medium	13%	+0.04%	+0.078	1	1	1.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

34.1 °C

Air

max 35.5 °C

23%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

21 km/h

Wind

gusts 63 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	56%	4
2	Marco Bezzecchi	41%	2 ✓
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	32%	1 ✓
4	Pol Espargaro	20%	3
5	Brad Binder	18%	5
6	Remy Gardner	9%	11
7	Enea Bastianini	8%	7
8	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	9
9	Darryn Binder	2%	13
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	8
11	Franco Morbidelli	4%	10
12	Alex Marquez	2%	6
13	Raul Fernandez	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	35%	65%	89%	1
2	Aleix Espargaro	25%	52%	83%	4
3	Jack Miller	15%	49%	79%	6
4	Johann Zarco	4%	32%	68%	3
5	Jorge Martin	4%	27%	53%	8
6	Fabio Quartararo	5%	22%	55%	2
7	Joan Mir	1%	11%	40%	12
8	Luca Marini	2%	11%	37%	7
9	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	8%	28%	10
10	Maverick Viñales	2%	8%	25%	9
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	11%	29%	11
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	4%	17%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	24%	49%	61%	69%	29%	—
Fabio Quartararo	2	24%	56%	73%	86%	12%	1
Johann Zarco	3	16%	47%	65%	80%	17%	2
Aleix Espargaro	4	11%	35%	54%	73%	25%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	7%	26%	45%	67%	28%	8
Jack Miller	6	5%	22%	41%	69%	25%	3
Luca Marini	7	5%	21%	45%	86%	4%	5
Jorge Martin	8	3%	12%	27%	57%	32%	6
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	9%	25%	72%	11%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	10	1%	7%	20%	64%	14%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	11	1%	4%	12%	47%	28%	11
Joan Mir	12	1%	4%	11%	48%	19%	—
Pol Espargaro	13	1%	2%	7%	40%	19%	—
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	2%	6%	35%	19%	9
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	15%	7
Alex Marquez	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	24%	—
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	16%	22%	10
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	16
Andrea Dovizioso	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	12%	14
Franco Morbidelli	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	16%	13
Remy Gardner	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	14%	15
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	12
Darryn Binder	23	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

The layout

Finish line · 3,649 m per lap

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	147	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	125	−22
3	Enea Bastianini	94	−53
4	Johann Zarco	91	−56
5	Francesco Bagnaia	81	−66
6	Brad Binder	73	−74

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.610 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Luca Marini (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Miguel Oliveira	1:22.072	—	+0.193	Medium	28
Marc Marquez	1:22.142	+0.070	+0.210	Medium	28
Francesco Bagnaia	1:22.294	+0.222	+0.221	Medium	27
Fabio Quartararo	1:22.308	+0.236	+0.275	Medium	28
Brad Binder	1:22.327	+0.255	+0.327	Medium	28
Jack Miller	1:22.387	+0.315	+0.105	Medium	28
Joan Mir	1:22.390	+0.318	+0.562	Medium	28
Johann Zarco	1:22.396	+0.324	+0.344	Medium	28
Aleix Espargaro	1:22.422	+0.350	+0.209	Medium	28
Alex Rins	1:22.536	+0.464	+0.217	Medium	28

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.61%	+0.010	1	3	9.8
Soft	5%	+0.69%	+0.022	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.