Round 14 of 15 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2020

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

13.11 – 15.11.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	41:22.478	25
2	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+0.093	20
3	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.006	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+3.697	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.127	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+7.272	10
7	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.703	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+8.729	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.512	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.043	6
11	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+19.456	5
12	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.717	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+23.802	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.430	2
15	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+30.570	1
16	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+30.619	0
17	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+42.365	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+46.472	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Franco Morbidelli · 26% ✓	Franco Morbidelli · 26% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	2.8 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.685	—	+0.512	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.690	+0.005	+0.359	Medium	13
Jack Miller	1:31.720	+0.035	+0.105	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:31.763	+0.078	+0.406	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:31.796	+0.111	+0.217	Medium	25
Brad Binder	1:31.826	+0.141	+0.327	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:31.947	+0.262	+0.562	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.952	+0.267	+0.193	Medium	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.956	+0.271	+0.226	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.058	+0.373	+0.209	Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:32.160	+0.475	+0.292	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.266	+0.581	+0.221	Medium	24
Valentino Rossi	1:32.360	+0.675	+0.508	Medium	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:32.380	+0.695	+0.729	Medium	24
Stefan Bradl	1:32.569	+0.884	+0.530	Medium	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.618	+0.933	+0.574	Medium	25
Alex Marquez	1:32.696	+1.011	+0.356	Medium	24
Tito Rabat	1:33.133	+1.448	+0.229	Medium	25
Lorenzo Savadori	1:33.262	+1.577	+0.781	Medium	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Franco Morbidelli

0.093 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P14 to P4.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Joan Mir (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:21		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:08:33	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:51	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:40	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Franco Morbidelli (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	14	7	+7
Andrea Dovizioso	17	12	+5
Miguel Oliveira	10	5	+5
Fabio Quartararo	11	19	−8
Maverick Viñales	6	13	−7
Cal Crutchlow	13	17	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	14→4	+7.2
Andrea Dovizioso	17→8	+5.1
Brad Binder	9→5	+3.0
Danilo Petrucci	15→15	−3.2
Francesco Bagnaia	8→11	−3.7
Maverick Viñales	6→10	−4.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.41%	+0.013	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.1 °C

Air

max 22.2 °C

55%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

20 km/h

Wind

gusts 43 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.829	—	23	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.644	+1.33%	16	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.944	+0.115	21	318.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.431	—	11	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.968	+0.139	21	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.599	+1.28%	7	Hard
4	Pol Espargaro	01:31.052	+0.223	20	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.814	+0.42%	10	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.170	+0.341	20	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.033	+0.66%	5	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:31.297	+0.468	19	324.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.410	+0.581	17	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.022	+0.65%	5	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:31.436	+0.607	21	319.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.966	+0.59%	5	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.486	+0.657	19	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.993	+0.62%	11	Medium
10	Stefan Bradl	01:31.514	+0.685	23	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.054	+0.68%	12	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:31.528	+0.699	21	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.996	+0.62%	14	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:31.541	+0.712	21	332.1	Soft / Medium	1:31.918	+0.53%	6	Medium
13	Valentino Rossi	01:31.545	+0.716	24	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.314	+0.97%	13	Medium
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.572	+0.743	20	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.224	+0.87%	5	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	01:31.598	+0.769	22	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.130	+0.77%	12	Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.617	+0.788	22	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.026	+0.65%	12	Medium
17	Brad Binder	01:31.678	+0.849	22	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.959	+0.58%	15	Medium
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.805	+0.976	22	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.260	+0.91%	16	Medium
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.828	+0.999	20	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.196	+0.84%	6	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:32.198	+1.369	25	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.064	+1.79%	19	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.772	+1.943	22	315.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.785	+2.58%	16	Medium
Retired	Iker Lecuona		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 13.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:30.622	—	20	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.500	+0.36%	5	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.713	+0.091	20	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.716	+0.60%	5	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.742	+0.120	20	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.612	+0.48%	6	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	01:30.821	+0.199	21	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.922	+0.82%	11	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:30.899	+0.277	21	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.470	+0.33%	5	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.926	+0.304	22	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.321	+1.26%	11	Medium
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.930	+0.308	21	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.946	+0.85%	6	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:30.947	+0.325	21	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.628	+0.50%	10	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.989	+0.367	19	321.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.842	+0.74%	5	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.062	+0.440	22	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Joan Mir	01:31.080	+0.458	21	318.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.829	+0.72%	6	Medium
12	Stefan Bradl	01:31.106	+0.484	22	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.880	+0.78%	12	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.125	+0.503	22	316.8	Hard / Soft	1:31.171	—	7	Soft
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.230	+0.608	21	322.8	Hard / Medium	1:31.542	+0.41%	6	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:31.261	+0.639	20	325.8	Hard / Soft	1:31.654	+0.53%	4	Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.326	+0.704	20	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.902	+0.80%	6	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.330	+0.708	22	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.835	+0.73%	12	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	01:31.371	+0.749	24	318.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.924	+0.83%	16	Medium
19	Alex Marquez	01:31.371	+0.749	19	325.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	01:32.058	+1.436	19	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.013	+2.02%	6	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.393	+1.771	20	316.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Iker Lecuona		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 14.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.168	—	10	318.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	01:30.636	+0.468	16	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:30.658	+0.490	10	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:30.697	+0.529	13	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.278	+1.33%	5	Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:30.734	+0.566	14	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.785	+0.617	10	319.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.849	+0.681	12	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.063	—	5	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.865	+0.697	13	319.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.867	+0.699	18	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.541	+1.62%	5	Soft
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.926	+0.758	15	321.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:30.956	+0.788	14	319.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:31.051	+0.883	13	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.077	+0.909	12	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.624	+1.71%	5	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:31.128	+0.960	13	327.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.633	+1.72%	5	Soft
15	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.235	+1.067	9	332.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.280	+1.112	10	327.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Valentino Rossi	01:31.372	+1.204	12	321.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:31.540	+1.372	14	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Tito Rabat	01:31.714	+1.546	13	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.694	+2.89%	5	Soft
20	Stefan Bradl	01:31.942	+1.774	10	324.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.532	+2.364	14	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Iker Lecuona		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 14.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:30.895	—	16	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.583	+0.32%	12	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.995	+0.100	17	325.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.566	+1.40%	9	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	01:31.020	+0.125	16	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.632	+0.37%	6	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.112	+0.217	17	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.500	+0.23%	11	Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:31.135	+0.240	13	318.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.292	—	5	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:31.180	+0.285	16	333.7	Medium / Medium	1:31.579	+0.31%	11	Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.230	+0.335	17	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.640	+0.38%	13	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:31.394	+0.499	13	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.624	+0.36%	5	Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.412	+0.517	15	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.200	+1.00%	6	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:31.412	+0.517	19	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.679	+0.42%	16	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	01:31.413	+0.518	16	318.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Stefan Bradl	01:31.500	+0.605	17	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.928	+0.70%	13	Soft
13	Valentino Rossi	01:31.544	+0.649	17	318.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.846	+0.61%	13	Medium
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.559	+0.664	14	324.3	Hard / Medium	1:33.563	+2.49%	6	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.563	+0.668	13	332.1	Hard / Medium	1:32.152	+0.94%	6	Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.628	+0.733	17	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.759	+0.51%	11	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.630	+0.735	15	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.949	+0.72%	7	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:31.649	+0.754	18	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.997	+0.77%	13	Medium
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.689	+0.794	15	324.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.056	+0.84%	11	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:31.751	+0.856	18	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.526	+1.35%	14	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.835	+1.940	16	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.228	+2.12%	12	Soft
Retired	Iker Lecuona		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 14.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Brad Binder	01:30.810	—	8	324.3	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.959	+0.149	8	324.3	Medium / Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.159	+0.349	9	325.8	Medium / Soft
4	Alex Rins	01:31.594	+0.784	9	319.8	Medium / Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.601	+0.791	8	322.8	Medium / Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:31.604	+0.794	8	316.8	Medium / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.606	+0.796	9	328.9	Medium / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:31.831	+1.021	9	325.8	Medium / Soft
9	Tito Rabat	01:32.063	+1.253	7	327.4	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:32.205	+1.395	4	324.3	Medium / Soft
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.237	+1.427	8	318.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 14.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.191	—	8	316.8	— / —	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:30.287	+0.096	9	328.9	— / —	—			—
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.413	+0.222	9	319.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:30.520	+0.329	9	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Pol Espargaro	01:30.553	+0.362	9	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:30.645	+0.454	8	319.8	— / —	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.657	+0.466	7	322.8	— / —	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.671	+0.480	9	328.9	— / —	—			—
9	Brad Binder	01:30.737	+0.546	10	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.891	—	5	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.781	+0.590	9	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.864	+0.673	10	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.983	+0.10%	7	Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:30.988	+0.797	9	318.3	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.057	—	13	316.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.294	—	10	Medium
2	Pol Espargaro	01:31.195	+0.138	13	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.665	+0.41%	11	Soft
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.320	+0.263	13	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.577	+0.31%	9	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:31.367	+0.310	10	328.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.368	+0.311	13	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:31.765	+0.52%	10	Medium
6	Brad Binder	01:31.405	+0.348	13	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.946	+0.71%	10	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.408	+0.351	13	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.928	+0.69%	10	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:31.413	+0.356	12	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.635	+0.37%	7	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.440	+0.383	11	318.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.636	+0.38%	5	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.607	+0.550	13	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.130	+0.92%	10	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.695	+0.638	12	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.152	+0.94%	8	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:31.704	+0.647	12	318.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.780	+0.53%	5	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:31.769	+0.712	13	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.023	+0.80%	9	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:31.788	+0.731	13	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.102	+1.98%	11	Medium
15	Valentino Rossi	01:31.832	+0.775	11	319.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Alex Rins	01:31.863	+0.806	13	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.500	+1.32%	11	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.963	+0.906	13	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.540	+1.37%	5	Soft
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.184	+1.127	12	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.620	+1.45%	4	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:32.219	+1.162	13	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.541	+2.46%	11	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:32.242	+1.185	13	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.399	+1.21%	9	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.775	+1.718	13	316.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.987	+1.85%	9	Medium

Race · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	41:22.478	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.685	—	25	Medium
2	Jack Miller	+0.093	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.720	+0.04%	25	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	+3.006	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.763	+0.09%	25	Medium
4	Alex Rins	+3.697	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.796	+0.12%	25	Medium
5	Brad Binder	+4.127	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.826	+0.15%	24	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	+7.272	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.952	+0.29%	25	Medium
7	Joan Mir	+8.703	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.947	+0.29%	25	Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	+8.729	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.956	+0.30%	25	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+15.512	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.058	+0.41%	24	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	+19.043	6	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.160	+0.52%	25	Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	+19.456	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.266	+0.63%	24	Medium
12	Valentino Rossi	+19.717	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.360	+0.74%	25	Medium
13	Cal Crutchlow	+23.802	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.380	+0.76%	24	Medium
14	Stefan Bradl	+27.430	2	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.569	+0.96%	24	Medium
15	Danilo Petrucci	+30.570	1	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.618	+1.02%	25	Medium
16	Alex Marquez	+30.619	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.696	+1.10%	24	Medium
17	Tito Rabat	+42.365	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.133	+1.58%	25	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+46.472	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.262	+1.72%	23	Medium
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	8	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	18	Hard / Medium	1:31.690	+0.01%	13	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:31.175	—	+0.217	Medium	5
Jack Miller	1:31.343*	+0.168	+0.105	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.348	+0.173	+0.512	Medium	17
Joan Mir	1:31.413	+0.238	+0.562	Medium	13
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.426	+0.251	+0.193	Medium	7
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.494	+0.319	+0.359	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:31.501	+0.326	+0.344	Medium	11
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.530	+0.355	+0.226	Medium	12
Pol Espargaro	1:31.622	+0.447	+0.406	Medium	13
Stefan Bradl	1:31.628	+0.453	+0.530	Medium	6
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.738	+0.563	+0.209	Medium	15
Cal Crutchlow	1:31.756	+0.581	+0.729	Medium	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.759	+0.584	+0.292	Medium	18
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.764	+0.589	+0.275	Medium	18
Valentino Rossi	1:31.839	+0.664	+0.508	Medium	14
Brad Binder	1:31.846	+0.671	+0.327	Medium	6
Alex Marquez	1:31.849	+0.674	+0.356	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.952	+0.777	+0.221	Medium	6
Tito Rabat	1:32.508	+1.333	+0.229	Medium	8
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.968	+1.793	+0.781	Medium	8

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	57%	2 ✓
2	Alex Rins	44%	4
3	Danilo Petrucci	32%	5
4	Andrea Dovizioso	20%	7
5	Cal Crutchlow	17%	3
6	Brad Binder	9%	1 ✓
7	Stefan Bradl	9%	8
8	Valentino Rossi	4%	6
9	Alex Marquez	2%	10
10	Tito Rabat	3%	9
11	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Franco Morbidelli	37%	70%	91%	1
2	Jack Miller	25%	51%	83%	2
3	Pol Espargaro	17%	50%	81%	5
4	Johann Zarco	4%	33%	69%	4
5	Maverick Viñales	3%	27%	54%	6
6	Takaaki Nakagami	7%	21%	56%	3
7	Joan Mir	1%	12%	43%	12
8	Francesco Bagnaia	2%	12%	36%	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	1%	7%	28%	10
10	Aleix Espargaro	2%	7%	21%	7
11	Fabio Quartararo	1%	9%	25%	11
12	Brad Binder	0%	2%	15%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Franco Morbidelli	1	26%	54%	68%	77%	21%	1
Jack Miller	2	19%	45%	61%	72%	26%	2
Takaaki Nakagami	3	17%	50%	69%	86%	12%	—
Johann Zarco	4	12%	39%	60%	81%	16%	—
Pol Espargaro	5	7%	29%	51%	75%	21%	3
Maverick Viñales	6	6%	25%	48%	80%	12%	10
Aleix Espargaro	7	5%	18%	35%	67%	26%	9
Francesco Bagnaia	8	2%	10%	23%	54%	37%	11
Brad Binder	9	2%	8%	20%	61%	23%	5
Miguel Oliveira	10	1%	7%	18%	63%	15%	6
Fabio Quartararo	11	1%	5%	14%	57%	17%	—
Joan Mir	12	1%	4%	10%	49%	18%	7
Cal Crutchlow	13	0%	2%	7%	38%	28%	13
Alex Rins	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	20%	4
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	2%	5%	30%	20%	15
Valentino Rossi	16	0%	1%	3%	26%	12%	12
Andrea Dovizioso	17	0%	0%	2%	18%	12%	8
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	14
Tito Rabat	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	17
Alex Marquez	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	18%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	31%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Joan Mir	171	—
2	Franco Morbidelli	142	−29
3	Alex Rins	138	−33
4	Maverick Viñales	127	−44
5	Andrea Dovizioso	125	−46
6	Fabio Quartararo	125	−46

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

20/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.026 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Andrea Dovizioso (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:31.653	—	+0.210	Hard	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.752	+0.099	+0.512	Hard	16
Jack Miller	1:31.758	+0.105	+0.105	Hard	24
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.763	+0.110	+0.275	Hard	25
Alex Rins	1:31.818	+0.165	+0.217	Soft	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:31.824	+0.171	+0.729	missing	8
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.845	+0.192	+0.226	Hard	25
Maverick Viñales	1:31.898	+0.245	+0.292	Hard	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:31.979	+0.326	+0.574	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:32.137	+0.484	+0.562	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	55%	+1.34%	+0.022	0	0	10.4
Hard	40%	+0.16%	+0.026	1	3	4.3
Medium	5%	+2.02%	+0.029	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.