Round 13 of 15 Aftermath

European Grand Prix 2020

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

06.11 – 08.11.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	41:37.297	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.651	20
3	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.203	16
4	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+2.194	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+8.046	11
6	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+8.755	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.137	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+10.801	8
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+11.550	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+16.803	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+17.617	5
12	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.350	4
13	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+25.403	3
14	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+39.639	2
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Pol Espargaro · 27%	Joan Mir · 8% · from P5	0.79 / 0.79	2.2 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:32.153	—	+0.562	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:32.250	+0.097	+0.217	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:32.252	+0.099	+0.406	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.293	+0.140	+0.359	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.382	+0.229	+0.193	Medium	25
Jack Miller	1:32.401	+0.248	+0.105	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:32.453	+0.300	+0.344	Medium	25
Brad Binder	1:32.470	+0.317	+0.327	Medium	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.496	+0.343	+0.226	Medium	24
Alex Marquez	1:32.578	+0.425	+0.356	Medium	20
Maverick Viñales	1:32.697	+0.544	+0.292	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.701	+0.548	+0.275	Medium	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.765	+0.612	+0.574	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.868	+0.715	+0.512	Hard	25
Stefan Bradl	1:33.017	+0.864	+0.530	Medium	25
Tito Rabat	1:33.283	+1.130	+0.229	Medium	11
Lorenzo Savadori	1:35.077	+2.924	+0.781	Soft	19

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

11/27

Laps led by the winner

Joan Mir

0.651 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P18 to P10.

Longest battle: Miguel Oliveira vs Takaaki Nakagami (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:53	Maverick Viñales	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:01:39		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:01:52	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:52	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:44	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:05:34	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:06	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:41	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:25	Tito Rabat	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:36:34	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:59	Lorenzo Savadori	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #33 & rider #12 Pit Lane Start for a Technical Infringement & grid penalty for

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Pol Espargaro (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Valentino Rossi	17	12	+5
Alex Marquez	14	10	+4
Andrea Dovizioso	12	8	+4
Fabio Quartararo	11	20	−9
Jack Miller	6	9	−3
Johann Zarco	4	6	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	5→1	+4.4
Danilo Petrucci	18→10	+3.8
Maverick Viñales	21→13	+2.7
Franco Morbidelli	8→11	−3.7
Johann Zarco	4→9	−4.2
Fabio Quartararo	11→14	−4.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	90%	+0.38%	−0.010	1	3	7.2
Hard	5%	+0.78%	+0.013	0	0	11.0
Soft	5%	+3.17%	−0.039	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.3 °C

Air

max 20.7 °C

53%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 15 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 06.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:42.063	—	14	316.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:42.530	+0.467	15	302.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.699	+1.20%	7	Wet-Soft
3	Stefan Bradl	01:42.566	+0.503	16	309.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.455	—	7	Wet-Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:42.639	+0.576	21	312.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.821	+0.35%	15	Wet-Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:42.654	+0.591	16	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.028	+0.55%	8	Wet-Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.700	+0.637	18	312.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.670	+0.21%	5	Wet-Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:42.841	+0.778	16	308.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.353	+0.87%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:42.877	+0.814	20	309.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.946	+0.48%	15	Wet-Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.959	+0.896	15	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.865	+2.33%	5	Wet-Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:43.009	+0.946	19	308.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.772	+1.27%	9	Wet-Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:43.230	+1.167	19	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.678	+1.18%	9	Wet-Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.461	+1.398	16	311.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.198	+1.69%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:43.521	+1.458	20	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.326	+1.81%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.572	+1.509	14	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.371	+2.82%	5	Wet-Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:43.584	+1.521	21	311.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.706	+1.21%	17	Wet-Soft
16	Garrett Gerloff	01:43.645	+1.582	21	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.349	+1.83%	10	Wet-Soft
17	Joan Mir	01:43.728	+1.665	19	311.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:43.925	+1.862	17	312.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.230	+1.72%	6	Wet-Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:44.448	+2.385	21	311.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.262	+1.75%	14	Wet-Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:44.527	+2.464	21	302.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.348	+1.83%	14	Wet-Soft
21	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.791	+2.728	21	309.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.504	+1.98%	14	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 06.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:32.528	—	18	318.3	— / —	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.620	+0.092	20	316.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.804	+0.276	20	311.1	Soft / Soft	1:36.732	+3.83%	14	Medium
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.866	+0.338	22	312.5	— / —	—			—
5	Pol Espargaro	01:32.952	+0.424	23	321.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.166	—	6	Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:33.157	+0.629	21	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:37.829	+5.01%	7	Hard
7	Brad Binder	01:33.259	+0.731	19	315.4	Soft / Medium	1:39.913	+7.24%	7	Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.292	+0.764	22	321.3	— / —	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:33.337	+0.809	24	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.962	+1.93%	14	Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:33.405	+0.877	25	318.3	Soft / Soft	1:36.949	+4.06%	15	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	01:33.410	+0.882	21	313.9	— / —	—			—
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.463	+0.935	22	319.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.483	+0.955	23	315.4	Soft / Soft	1:36.431	+3.50%	7	Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	01:33.504	+0.976	22	318.3	Soft / Soft	1:38.579	+5.81%	7	Soft
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.515	+0.987	22	321.3	— / —	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:33.570	+1.042	22	316.8	Soft / Soft	1:35.652	+2.67%	16	Medium
17	Johann Zarco	01:33.739	+1.211	23	312.5	Soft / Soft	1:37.560	+4.72%	12	Soft
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.775	+1.247	17	315.4	— / —	—			—
19	Garrett Gerloff	01:34.107	+1.579	20	313.9	— / —	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:35.661	+3.133	17	313.9	Soft / Medium	1:39.645	+6.95%	9	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:36.690	+4.162	21	312.5	Soft / Soft	1:42.447	+9.96%	12	Hard

FP3 · 07.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:40.007	—	21	315.4	— / —	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:40.743	+0.736	21	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.915	—	9	Wet-Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.071	+1.064	22	308.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.599	+0.67%	17	Wet-Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.193	+1.186	20	319.8	— / —	—			—
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.285	+1.278	15	316.8	— / —	—			—
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.352	+1.345	19	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.520	+0.59%	12	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:41.589	+1.582	15	318.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.848	+2.88%	6	Wet-Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:41.642	+1.635	22	306.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Alex Rins	01:41.779	+1.772	16	311.1	— / —	—			—
10	Joan Mir	01:41.864	+1.857	19	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.363	+1.42%	7	Wet-Medium
11	Stefan Bradl	01:41.884	+1.877	10	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.446	+0.52%	7	Wet-Medium
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.009	+2.002	12	319.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.903	+0.97%	5	Wet-Medium
13	Lorenzo Savadori	01:42.301	+2.294	17	302.9	— / —	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	01:42.506	+2.499	9	313.9	— / —	—			—
15	Tito Rabat	01:42.547	+2.540	23	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.364	+2.40%	15	Wet-Medium
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.824	+2.817	6	316.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:42.831	+2.824	16	308.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.892	+1.94%	7	Wet-Soft
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.957	+2.950	9	311.1	— / —	—			—
19	Fabio Quartararo	01:43.234	+3.227	20	313.9	— / —	—			—
20	Brad Binder	01:43.534	+3.527	18	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 07.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.573	—	14	311.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:42.576	—	10	Wet-Medium
2	Joan Mir	01:41.767	+0.194	14	311.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.286	+0.69%	7	Wet-Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:41.819	+0.246	9	322.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.237	+0.64%	5	Wet-Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.883	+0.310	15	319.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:43.574	+0.97%	12	Wet-Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.910	+0.337	15	306.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:44.360	+1.74%	9	Wet-Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.959	+0.386	13	321.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Alex Marquez	01:42.145	+0.572	14	316.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.768	+3.11%	5	Wet-Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:42.145	+0.572	8	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.802	+1.20%	6	Wet-Medium
9	Stefan Bradl	01:42.151	+0.578	15	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.712	+0.13%	8	Wet-Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:42.236	+0.663	11	308.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.197	+0.61%	5	Wet-Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:42.246	+0.673	14	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.273	+2.63%	7	Wet-Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:42.259	+0.686	11	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.898	+0.31%	6	Wet-Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	01:42.531	+0.958	9	309.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.565	+0.96%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Valentino Rossi	01:42.553	+0.980	13	305.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.608	+1.98%	6	Wet-Soft
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:42.658	+1.085	14	312.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.574	+3.90%	7	Wet-Soft
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.659	+1.086	11	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.214	+1.60%	5	Wet-Medium
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.032	+1.459	13	313.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.953	+2.32%	7	Wet-Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:43.110	+1.537	17	312.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.715	+1.11%	14	Wet-Soft
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:43.371	+1.798	10	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Brad Binder	01:43.480	+1.907	14	311.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.893	+2.26%	9	Wet-Soft
21	Tito Rabat	01:43.903	+2.330	17	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.347	+3.68%	12	Wet-Soft

Q1 · 07.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.771	—	9	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.166	—	6	Wet-Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:40.821	+0.050	6	316.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Stefan Bradl	01:41.010	+0.239	8	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:41.853	+0.68%	5	Wet-Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:41.276	+0.505	9	316.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.831	+1.65%	5	Wet-Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:41.310	+0.539	7	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.311	+0.540	8	316.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.395	+0.624	9	321.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.008	+0.83%	7	Wet-Medium
8	Valentino Rossi	01:42.039	+1.268	9	309.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:42.544	+1.36%	7	Wet-Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.244	+1.473	9	319.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Lorenzo Savadori	01:42.532	+1.761	9	309.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.909	+5.68%	7	Wet-Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:43.030	+2.259	9	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.465	+3.26%	7	Wet-Soft

Q2 · 07.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:40.434	—	9	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.799	—	5	Wet-Medium
2	Alex Rins	01:40.475	+0.041	9	318.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.530	+0.096	8	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:40.577	+0.143	5	316.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
5	Joan Mir	01:40.704	+0.270	8	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.893	+0.459	8	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Jack Miller	01:40.893	+0.459	5	318.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.328	+0.894	9	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.452	+0.64%	5	Wet-Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.557	+1.123	8	309.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:41.781	+1.347	9	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.084	+0.28%	7	Wet-Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.943	+1.509	9	315.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.760	+0.94%	5	Wet-Medium
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.249	+1.815	8	324.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

Warm Up · 08.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	01:32.251	—	13	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:33.244	+0.47%	10	Medium
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.292	+0.041	13	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.845	+1.12%	9	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:32.351	+0.100	13	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.263	+0.49%	9	Medium
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.371	+0.120	13	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.982	+0.19%	10	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:32.438	+0.187	13	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.248	+0.47%	9	Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:32.483	+0.232	13	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.761	+1.03%	11	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.560	+0.309	13	318.3	Medium / Hard	1:32.810	—	9	Hard
8	Alex Rins	01:32.576	+0.325	13	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.785	+1.05%	5	Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.607	+0.356	12	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.913	+1.19%	5	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:32.619	+0.368	12	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.180	+0.40%	5	Medium
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.641	+0.390	13	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.527	+0.77%	5	Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:32.650	+0.399	13	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.299	+0.53%	9	Medium
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.686	+0.435	13	321.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.040	+0.25%	10	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.701	+0.450	13	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.035	+1.32%	10	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.799	+0.548	12	319.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.803	+0.552	12	330.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:32.865	+0.614	13	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.655	+1.99%	11	Medium
18	Stefan Bradl	01:33.017	+0.766	13	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.779	+1.04%	9	Medium
19	Valentino Rossi	01:33.171	+0.920	12	316.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.831	+1.580	13	315.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.298	+1.60%	10	Soft
21	Tito Rabat	01:33.938	+1.687	13	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.104	+2.47%	10	Soft

Race · 08.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	41:37.297	25	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.153	—	25	Medium
2	Alex Rins	+0.651	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.250	+0.11%	25	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	+1.203	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.252	+0.11%	25	Medium
4	Takaaki Nakagami	+2.194	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.293	+0.15%	25	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	+8.046	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.382	+0.25%	25	Medium
6	Jack Miller	+8.755	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.401	+0.27%	23	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+10.137	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.470	+0.34%	25	Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	+10.801	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.496	+0.37%	24	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+11.550	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.453	+0.33%	25	Medium
10	Danilo Petrucci	+16.803	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.765	+0.66%	25	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+17.617	5	27	Hard / Hard	1:32.868	+0.78%	25	Hard
12	Stefan Bradl	+24.350	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.017	+0.94%	25	Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	+25.403	3	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.697	+0.59%	25	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	+39.639	2	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.701	+0.60%	24	Medium
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	23	Hard / Medium	1:32.578	+0.46%	20	Medium
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	25	Medium / Soft	1:35.077	+3.17%	19	Soft
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	13	Medium / Medium	1:33.283	+1.23%	11	Medium
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Cal Crutchlow	57%	6
2	Miguel Oliveira	43%	1 ✓
3	Alex Marquez	32%	4
4	Johann Zarco	19%	2 ✓
5	Lorenzo Savadori	18%	10
6	Stefan Bradl	10%	3
7	Tito Rabat	9%	11
8	Maverick Viñales	4%	5
9	Francesco Bagnaia	2%	7
10	Valentino Rossi	3%	8
11	Danilo Petrucci	3%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	37%	70%	91%	6
2	Franco Morbidelli	26%	51%	84%	9
3	Pol Espargaro	17%	50%	81%	1
4	Alex Rins	4%	33%	69%	2
5	Fabio Quartararo	3%	27%	54%	11
6	Joan Mir	7%	21%	56%	5
7	Miguel Oliveira	2%	12%	43%	8
8	Johann Zarco	2%	12%	35%	4
9	Brad Binder	1%	7%	29%	10
10	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	7%	20%	3
11	Jack Miller	1%	9%	25%	7
12	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	2%	15%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Maverick Viñales	15	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Aleix Espargaro	6	9	+3

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pol Espargaro	1	27%	54%	67%	77%	21%	3
Alex Rins	2	21%	51%	66%	78%	20%	2
Takaaki Nakagami	3	15%	47%	68%	85%	12%	4
Johann Zarco	4	12%	37%	59%	80%	16%	9
Joan Mir	5	8%	29%	51%	77%	18%	1
Jack Miller	6	5%	22%	40%	67%	27%	6
Miguel Oliveira	7	5%	20%	40%	76%	16%	5
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	14%	30%	68%	22%	11
Aleix Espargaro	9	1%	8%	20%	60%	26%	—
Brad Binder	10	1%	6%	15%	56%	25%	7
Fabio Quartararo	11	1%	5%	14%	56%	17%	14
Andrea Dovizioso	12	0%	4%	10%	52%	12%	8
Stefan Bradl	13	0%	3%	7%	41%	19%	12
Alex Marquez	14	0%	2%	5%	37%	13%	—
Cal Crutchlow	15	0%	1%	3%	26%	28%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	0%	2%	17%	35%	—
Valentino Rossi	17	0%	0%	2%	18%	11%	—
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	20%	10
Lorenzo Savadori	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	19%	—
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	20%	—
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	12%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins	Pol Espargaro +0.25%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S2	Brad Binder +0.02%	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S3	Joan Mir +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.60%	Pol Espargaro +0.71%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.47%	Franco Morbidelli +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins	Pol Espargaro +0.25%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S2	Brad Binder +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%
S3	Joan Mir +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.54%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.10%	Jack Miller +0.18%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Joan Mir	162	—
2	Alex Rins	125	−37
3	Fabio Quartararo	125	−37
4	Maverick Viñales	121	−41
5	Andrea Dovizioso	117	−45
6	Franco Morbidelli	117	−45

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2020Joan MirSuzuki

Attrition here

Average here 33% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2020	7/21	33%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet