Round 15 of 15 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2020

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020

20.11 – 22.11.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	41:48.163	25
2	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.193	20
3	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+3.298	16
4	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.626	13
5	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+13.318	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+15.578	10
7	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.738	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+16.034	8
9	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.325	7
10	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+18.596	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+18.685	5
12	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+18.946	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+19.159	3
14	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+24.376	2
15	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+27.776	1
16	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+34.266	0
17	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+48.410	0
18	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+48.411	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Miguel Oliveira · 31% ✓	Miguel Oliveira · 31% · from P1	0.62 / 0.62	3.5 / 3.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.140	—	+0.193	Hard	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.273	+0.133	+0.512	Hard	22
Jack Miller	1:40.284	+0.144	+0.105	Hard	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.579	+0.439	+0.226	Hard	23
Pol Espargaro	1:40.615	+0.475	+0.406	Hard	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.644	+0.504	+0.359	Hard	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.661	+0.521	+0.209	Hard	23
Stefan Bradl	1:40.674	+0.534	+0.530	Hard	23
Alex Marquez	1:40.698	+0.558	+0.356	Hard	23
Johann Zarco	1:40.748	+0.608	+0.344	Hard	22
Valentino Rossi	1:40.784	+0.644	+0.508	Hard	22
Maverick Viñales	1:40.796	+0.656	+0.292	Hard	21
Cal Crutchlow	1:40.819	+0.679	+0.729	Hard	22
Alex Rins	1:41.000	+0.860	+0.217	Hard	22
Joan Mir	1:41.006	+0.866	+0.562	Hard	13
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.045	+0.905	+0.275	Hard	21
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.200	+1.060	+0.781	Hard	20
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.235	+1.095	+0.574	Hard	23
Mika Kallio	1:41.976	+1.836	+0.462	Hard	23
Tito Rabat	1:42.048	+1.908	+0.229	Hard	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

3.193 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P16 to P9.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Jack Miller (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:34		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:03:30	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	Retired
Race	14:04:30	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:26:15	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:38:33	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Miguel Oliveira (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	20	12	+8
Pol Espargaro	9	5	+4
Alex Rins	10	6	+4
Fabio Quartararo	5	8	−3
Johann Zarco	7	9	−2
Brad Binder	13	15	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Takaaki Nakagami	11→5	+4.3
Pol Espargaro	9→4	+4.0
Andrea Dovizioso	12→6	+3.9
Alex Rins	10→15	−6.4
Cal Crutchlow	4→13	−8.2
Fabio Quartararo	5→14	−8.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	100%	+0.63%	−0.004	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.4 °C

Air

max 18.5 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.122	—	28	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:41.923	+0.60%	12	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:40.162	+0.040	31	318.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.037	+0.72%	18	Hard
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.236	+0.114	27	317.6	Medium / Medium	1:41.312	—	6	Hard
4	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.297	+0.175	25	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:43.156	+1.82%	10	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:40.680	+0.558	23	316.7	Medium / Medium	1:42.294	+0.97%	7	Hard
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.695	+0.573	27	305.9	Medium / Medium	1:42.782	+1.45%	11	Hard
7	Joan Mir	01:40.856	+0.734	26	320.4	Medium / Medium	1:42.622	+1.29%	11	Hard
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.877	+0.755	29	320.4	Medium / Medium	1:41.929	+0.61%	17	Hard
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.878	+0.756	29	314.8	Medium / Medium	1:43.167	+1.83%	17	Hard
10	Stefan Bradl	01:40.920	+0.798	29	313.9	Soft / Hard	1:42.455	+1.13%	17	Hard
11	Alex Rins	01:40.960	+0.838	26	317.6	Medium / Hard	1:42.152	+0.83%	12	Medium
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.961	+0.839	25	322.3	Medium / Hard	1:42.908	+1.58%	6	Hard
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.167	+1.045	27	317.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.545	+1.22%	13	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:41.181	+1.059	29	314.8	Medium / Medium	1:42.735	+1.41%	14	Hard
15	Alex Marquez	01:41.228	+1.106	31	319.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.466	+1.14%	19	Hard
16	Jack Miller	01:41.271	+1.149	26	328.2	Medium / Medium	1:43.430	+2.09%	11	Hard
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.433	+1.311	25	320.4	Medium / Medium	1:43.252	+1.92%	12	Hard
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.928	+1.806	26	324.3	Medium / Hard	1:44.328	+2.98%	6	Medium
19	Valentino Rossi	01:41.946	+1.824	26	317.6	Medium / Hard	1:43.497	+2.16%	10	Medium
20	Brad Binder	01:42.082	+1.960	28	315.7	Soft / Medium	1:43.370	+2.03%	9	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:43.154	+3.032	29	307.6	Medium / Hard	1:44.861	+3.50%	17	Hard
22	Mika Kallio	01:43.910	+3.788	26	307.6	Medium / Hard	1:45.523	+4.16%	14	Hard

FP2 · 20.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:39.417	—	29	318.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.466	+0.73%	10	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.536	+0.119	29	319.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.056	+0.32%	10	Hard
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.645	+0.228	25	322.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.744	+1.01%	9	Hard
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.692	+0.275	31	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:41.331	+0.60%	19	Hard
5	Brad Binder	01:39.697	+0.280	27	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:41.613	+0.88%	8	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:39.732	+0.315	26	323.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.741	+0.324	28	331.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.446	+0.71%	16	Hard
8	Pol Espargaro	01:39.783	+0.366	27	321.4	missing / missing	1:41.833	+1.10%	16	Hard
9	Jack Miller	01:39.820	+0.403	25	324.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.059	+0.33%	9	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.888	+0.471	25	320.4	Soft / Medium	1:40.816	+0.09%	12	Hard
11	Stefan Bradl	01:39.909	+0.492	28	317.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.730	—	11	Hard
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.939	+0.522	26	313.0	Soft / Hard	1:41.276	+0.54%	16	Hard
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.946	+0.529	30	325.3	missing / missing	1:41.923	+1.18%	5	Medium
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.966	+0.549	27	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:42.400	+1.66%	4	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.977	+0.560	26	321.4	Hard / Soft	1:42.875	+2.13%	7	Hard
16	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.085	+0.668	27	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:42.403	+1.66%	9	Hard
17	Alex Rins	01:40.213	+0.796	25	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.350	+0.62%	12	Hard
18	Alex Marquez	01:40.338	+0.921	33	319.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.345	+0.61%	13	Medium
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.547	+1.130	28	322.3	Hard / Soft	1:41.561	+0.83%	10	Hard
20	Tito Rabat	01:41.256	+1.839	32	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:42.696	+1.95%	14	Medium
21	Valentino Rossi	01:41.279	+1.862	28	317.6	Medium / Soft	1:42.301	+1.56%	16	Hard
22	Mika Kallio	01:41.826	+2.409	29	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:43.995	+3.24%	17	Soft

FP3 · 21.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:39.205	—	18	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.330	+0.125	19	333.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Alex Rins	01:39.355	+0.150	20	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:42.231	+1.39%	5	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.404	+0.199	19	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.948	+1.11%	6	Hard
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.411	+0.206	19	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:42.030	+1.19%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.480	+0.275	19	330.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.169	+0.34%	8	Hard
7	Pol Espargaro	01:39.513	+0.308	22	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:40.830	—	8	Hard
8	Stefan Bradl	01:39.569	+0.364	21	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.826	+0.99%	5	Hard
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.619	+0.414	18	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:39.693	+0.488	18	334.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.717	+0.512	21	336.4	Medium / Soft	1:44.752	+3.89%	5	Hard
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.732	+0.527	16	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:45.634	+4.76%	6	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:39.801	+0.596	21	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:42.049	+1.21%	5	Soft
14	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.934	+0.729	16	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:43.228	+2.38%	5	Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:39.951	+0.746	17	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:40.005	+0.800	22	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:41.398	+0.56%	9	Hard
17	Brad Binder	01:40.030	+0.825	18	336.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.448	+1.243	17	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.484	+1.279	19	337.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Valentino Rossi	01:40.722	+1.517	21	328.2	Medium / Soft	1:42.310	+1.47%	8	Hard
21	Tito Rabat	01:41.992	+2.787	21	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:42.706	+1.86%	11	Hard
22	Mika Kallio	01:42.468	+3.263	19	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:43.662	+2.81%	10	Hard

FP4 · 21.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:40.150	—	14	336.4	Hard / Hard	1:43.136	+2.66%	6	Hard
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.184	+0.034	14	338.5	Hard / Hard	1:40.788	+0.32%	5	Hard
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.190	+0.040	9	336.4	Medium / Hard	1:40.464	—	5	Hard
4	Maverick Viñales	01:40.209	+0.059	15	335.4	Medium / Hard	1:41.014	+0.55%	10	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.221	+0.071	15	339.6	Hard / Hard	1:42.023	+1.55%	10	Hard
6	Alex Marquez	01:40.472	+0.322	14	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:41.275	+0.81%	5	Hard
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.498	+0.348	16	333.3	Hard / Hard	1:41.516	+1.05%	10	Hard
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.565	+0.415	15	332.3	Medium / Hard	1:40.833	+0.37%	5	Hard
9	Brad Binder	01:40.595	+0.445	15	341.7	Hard / Hard	1:42.039	+1.57%	9	Hard
10	Stefan Bradl	01:40.608	+0.458	16	342.8	Medium / Hard	1:40.868	+0.40%	11	Hard
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.754	+0.604	14	341.7	Hard / Hard	1:41.042	+0.58%	5	Hard
12	Joan Mir	01:40.758	+0.608	14	333.3	Medium / Hard	1:41.226	+0.76%	4	Medium
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.759	+0.609	14	345.0	Medium / Hard	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:40.802	+0.652	15	339.6	Medium / Hard	1:41.078	+0.61%	6	Hard
15	Jack Miller	01:40.901	+0.751	15	345.0	Medium / Hard	1:41.314	+0.85%	11	Hard
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.124	+0.974	15	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:42.013	+1.54%	8	Hard
17	Valentino Rossi	01:41.186	+1.036	14	338.5	Hard / Hard	1:41.477	+1.01%	7	Hard
18	Alex Rins	01:41.273	+1.123	13	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.459	+1.309	16	336.4	Hard / Hard	1:41.936	+1.47%	11	Hard
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.761	+1.611	15	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:42.130	+1.66%	7	Hard
21	Tito Rabat	01:41.772	+1.622	13	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Mika Kallio	01:42.412	+2.262	16	336.4	Hard / Hard	1:44.241	+3.76%	8	Medium

Q1 · 21.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.250	—	8	340.6	Medium / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.276	+0.026	7	334.3	Medium / Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:39.390	+0.140	8	336.4	Hard / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.762	+0.512	8	339.6	Hard / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.019	+0.769	8	340.6	Hard / Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:40.049	+0.799	8	342.8	Medium / Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.058	+0.808	8	335.4	Hard / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.091	+0.841	8	342.8	Medium / Soft
9	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.174	+0.924	7	338.5	Hard / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:40.290	+1.040	8	331.2	Medium / Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:40.427	+1.177	8	343.9	Hard / Soft
12	Mika Kallio	01:41.753	+2.503	8	337.5	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 21.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.892	—	8	337.5	Hard / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.936	+0.044	8	331.2	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:39.038	+0.146	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.156	+0.264	7	338.5	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.199	+0.307	8	333.3	Medium / Soft
6	Stefan Bradl	01:39.204	+0.312	8	339.6	Medium / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:39.238	+0.346	8	342.8	Medium / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:39.260	+0.368	8	332.3	Medium / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:39.284	+0.392	8	335.4	Hard / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:39.467	+0.575	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.531	+0.639	8	334.3	Medium / Soft
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.587	+0.695	8	343.9	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 22.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.067	—	11	338.5	— / —	—			—
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.181	+0.114	12	333.3	— / —	—			—
3	Brad Binder	01:40.196	+0.129	12	338.5	Medium / Hard	1:40.557	—	7	Hard
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.500	+0.433	12	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:41.308	+0.75%	8	Hard
5	Pol Espargaro	01:40.509	+0.442	12	335.4	Medium / Hard	1:40.873	+0.31%	9	Hard
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.576	+0.509	12	331.2	— / —	—			—
7	Alex Marquez	01:40.593	+0.526	12	335.4	— / —	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:40.631	+0.564	12	330.2	— / —	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	01:40.656	+0.589	12	342.8	Soft / Hard	1:41.469	+0.91%	9	Hard
10	Maverick Viñales	01:40.792	+0.725	12	333.3	Medium / Hard	1:41.960	+1.40%	7	Hard
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.883	+0.816	12	331.2	Medium / Hard	1:41.215	+0.65%	9	Hard
12	Alex Rins	01:40.889	+0.822	11	338.5	— / —	—			—
13	Stefan Bradl	01:40.936	+0.869	7	331.2	— / —	—			—
14	Valentino Rossi	01:40.972	+0.905	12	334.3	— / —	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.024	+0.957	12	331.2	Medium / Hard	1:42.164	+1.60%	6	Hard
16	Jack Miller	01:41.151	+1.084	12	339.6	Medium / Hard	1:41.482	+0.92%	8	Hard
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.263	+1.196	12	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:41.913	+1.35%	8	Hard
18	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.281	+1.214	11	331.2	— / —	—			—
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.339	+1.272	12	341.7	— / —	—			—
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.404	+1.337	11	332.3	— / —	—			—
21	Mika Kallio	01:41.884	+1.817	12	336.4	Medium / Hard	1:43.052	+2.48%	9	Hard
22	Tito Rabat	01:42.716	+2.649	10	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—

Race · 22.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	41:48.163	25	25	Hard / Hard	1:40.140	—	23	Hard
2	Jack Miller	+3.193	20	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.284	+0.14%	23	Hard
3	Franco Morbidelli	+3.298	16	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.273	+0.13%	22	Hard
4	Pol Espargaro	+12.626	13	25	Hard / Hard	1:40.615	+0.47%	23	Hard
5	Takaaki Nakagami	+13.318	11	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.644	+0.50%	21	Hard
6	Andrea Dovizioso	+15.578	10	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.579	+0.44%	23	Hard
7	Stefan Bradl	+15.738	9	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.674	+0.53%	23	Hard
8	Aleix Espargaro	+16.034	8	25	Hard / Hard	1:40.661	+0.52%	23	Hard
9	Alex Marquez	+18.325	7	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.698	+0.56%	23	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	+18.596	6	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.748	+0.61%	22	Hard
11	Maverick Viñales	+18.685	5	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.796	+0.66%	21	Hard
12	Valentino Rossi	+18.946	4	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.784	+0.64%	22	Hard
13	Cal Crutchlow	+19.159	3	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.819	+0.68%	22	Hard
14	Fabio Quartararo	+24.376	2	25	Medium / Hard	1:41.045	+0.90%	21	Hard
15	Alex Rins	+27.776	1	25	Medium / Hard	1:41.000	+0.86%	22	Hard
16	Danilo Petrucci	+34.266	0	25	Medium / Hard	1:41.235	+1.09%	23	Hard
17	Mika Kallio	+48.410	0	25	Hard / Hard	1:41.976	+1.83%	23	Hard
18	Tito Rabat	+48.411	0	25	Hard / Hard	1:42.048	+1.91%	22	Hard
Retired	Brad Binder		0	2	Hard / Hard	—			—
Out on lap 1	Francesco Bagnaia		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	15	Medium / Hard	1:41.006	+0.87%	13	Hard
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	22	Hard / Hard	1:41.200	+1.06%	20	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:40.904*	—	+0.344	Medium	4
Alex Rins	1:41.011*	+0.107	+0.217	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.158*	+0.254	+0.359	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	1:41.623*	+0.719	+0.406	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.894*	+0.990	+0.193	Medium	4
Tito Rabat	1:42.030*	+1.126	+0.229	Medium	4
Cal Crutchlow	1:42.400*	+1.496	+0.729	Medium	4
Alex Marquez	1:42.488*	+1.584	+0.356	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	57%	2 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	43%	4
3	Brad Binder	32%	3
4	Cal Crutchlow	19%	1 ✓
5	Joan Mir	17%	10
6	Lorenzo Savadori	10%	9
7	Francesco Bagnaia	9%	5
8	Alex Marquez	4%	6
9	Danilo Petrucci	2%	8
10	Valentino Rossi	3%	7
11	Tito Rabat	3%	11
12	Mika Kallio	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	37%	70%	91%	3
2	Miguel Oliveira	25%	51%	84%	1
3	Alex Rins	17%	50%	81%	10
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	33%	69%	12
5	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	27%	54%	11
6	Johann Zarco	7%	22%	56%	7
7	Fabio Quartararo	1%	12%	42%	5
8	Pol Espargaro	2%	12%	35%	9
9	Maverick Viñales	1%	7%	28%	8
10	Stefan Bradl	2%	7%	21%	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	1%	9%	25%	2
12	Cal Crutchlow	0%	2%	15%	4

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Miguel Oliveira	1	31%	61%	74%	84%	15%	1
Franco Morbidelli	2	21%	50%	65%	77%	21%	3
Jack Miller	3	13%	40%	57%	71%	26%	2
Cal Crutchlow	4	10%	33%	51%	70%	28%	13
Fabio Quartararo	5	8%	29%	50%	75%	19%	14
Stefan Bradl	6	5%	23%	44%	75%	19%	7
Johann Zarco	7	4%	20%	40%	74%	17%	10
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	15%	34%	74%	12%	11
Pol Espargaro	9	1%	9%	22%	63%	21%	4
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	16%	58%	19%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	11	1%	5%	15%	58%	14%	5
Andrea Dovizioso	12	1%	4%	11%	53%	12%	6
Brad Binder	13	0%	2%	7%	41%	22%	—
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	1%	5%	33%	26%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	36%	—
Alex Marquez	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	17%	9
Valentino Rossi	17	0%	1%	2%	17%	12%	12
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	27%	—
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	17%	—
Tito Rabat	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	21%	18
Mika Kallio	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	35%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.32%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.50%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.57%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Pedro Acosta +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.52%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Alex Marquez +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.63%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%	Alex Marquez +0.37%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.16%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.26%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Brad Binder +0.48%	Alex Rins +0.58%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.55%	Johann Zarco +0.60%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.76%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%	Alex Marquez +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S2	Miguel Oliveira +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.01%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Stefan Bradl +0.46%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.02%	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Stefan Bradl +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

61%

Front row on the podium

0.68

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Joan Mir	171	—
2	Franco Morbidelli	158	−13
3	Alex Rins	139	−32
4	Andrea Dovizioso	135	−36
5	Pol Espargaro	135	−36
6	Maverick Viñales	132	−39

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

28/28

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

1.421 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P7 to P4.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Jorge Lorenzo (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
2012Casey StonerHonda
2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	6/20	30%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	5/21	24%
2020	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet