Round 19 of 19 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2019

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

15.11 – 17.11.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:21.469	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+1.026	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+2.409	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+3.326	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+3.508	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+8.829	10
7	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+10.622	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+22.992	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+32.704	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+32.973	6
11	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+42.795	5
12	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+45.732	4
13	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+51.044	3
14	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+64.871	2
15	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+76.487	1
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 26%	Marc Marquez · 22% · from P2	0.95 / 0.95	1.6 / 1.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:31.653	—	+0.210	Hard	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.752	+0.099	+0.512	Hard	16
Jack Miller	1:31.758	+0.105	+0.105	Hard	24
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.763	+0.110	+0.275	Hard	25
Alex Rins	1:31.818	+0.165	+0.217	Soft	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:31.824	+0.171	+0.729	missing	8
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.845	+0.192	+0.226	Hard	25
Maverick Viñales	1:31.898	+0.245	+0.292	Hard	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:31.979	+0.326	+0.574	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:32.137	+0.484	+0.562	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:32.281	+0.628	+0.344	Hard	11
Valentino Rossi	1:32.515	+0.862	+0.508	missing	25
Pol Espargaro	1:32.660	+1.007	+0.406	Hard	24
Iker Lecuona	1:32.728	+1.075	+0.094	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.835	+1.182	+0.209	Soft	25
Andrea Iannone	1:32.882	+1.229	+0.224	Soft	22
Tito Rabat	1:33.134	+1.481	+0.229	Soft	25
Michele Pirro	1:33.138	+1.485	+0.267	Soft	6
Mika Kallio	1:33.179	+1.526	+0.462	Soft	25
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.505	+1.852	+1.158	Medium	25
Karel Abraham	1:33.959	+2.306	—	Soft	24
Hafizh Syahrin	1:34.502	+2.849	+0.491	Soft	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

20/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.026 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Andrea Dovizioso (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:43		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:13:34	Michele Pirro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:16:34	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:50	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:55	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:22:00	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:07	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:42:34	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	8	3	+5
Andrea Iannone	20	16	+4
Valentino Rossi	12	9	+3
Michele Pirro	14	18	−4
Jorge Lorenzo	16	19	−3
Marc Marquez	2	5	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Aleix Espargaro	15→9	+2.8
Tito Rabat	18→11	+2.8
Marc Marquez	2→1	+2.5
Jorge Lorenzo	16→13	−0.5
Pol Espargaro	11→10	−0.7
Maverick Viñales	4→6	−1.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	55%	+1.34%	+0.022	0	0	10.4
Hard	40%	+0.16%	+0.026	1	3	4.3
Medium	5%	+2.02%	+0.029	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

15.1 °C

Air

max 15.9 °C

40%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

27 km/h

Wind

gusts 57 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.455	—	24	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:32.312	+0.33%	19	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:31.512	+0.057	19	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.080	+1.17%	7	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:31.532	+0.077	23	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.129	+0.13%	13	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:31.595	+0.140	23	315.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.008	—	16	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.658	+0.203	21	313.9	Medium / Medium	1:33.001	+1.08%	13	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:31.794	+0.339	21	321.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.622	+0.67%	13	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:31.917	+0.462	19	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.169	+1.26%	11	Medium
8	Valentino Rossi	01:31.976	+0.521	18	316.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.575	+0.62%	12	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.132	+0.677	18	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.069	+1.15%	10	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:32.206	+0.751	22	322.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.844	+0.91%	12	Medium
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.235	+0.780	20	319.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.070	+1.15%	10	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.244	+0.789	17	319.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:32.512	+1.057	21	316.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.281	+1.38%	12	Medium
14	Michele Pirro	01:32.538	+1.083	10	321.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.727	+1.272	21	324.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.264	+1.37%	12	Medium
16	Andrea Iannone	01:32.769	+1.314	17	315.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.755	+1.90%	7	Medium
17	Mika Kallio	01:32.852	+1.397	21	316.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.183	+2.36%	15	Medium
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.860	+1.405	18	321.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Karel Abraham	01:33.312	+1.857	15	319.8	Soft / Soft	1:36.833	+5.24%	5	Medium
20	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.365	+1.910	21	321.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.324	+2.52%	12	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:33.446	+1.991	22	321.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.318	+2.51%	10	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.374	+2.919	20	312.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.857	+3.10%	12	Medium
23	Iker Lecuona	01:34.563	+3.108	20	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:36.723	+5.13%	7	Soft

FP2 · 15.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.735	—	23	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:31.991	+0.61%	15	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.883	+0.148	24	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:31.704	+0.30%	15	Hard
3	Marc Marquez	01:30.974	+0.239	21	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.430	—	12	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:31.000	+0.265	19	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.318	+0.97%	5	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.199	+0.464	23	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.269	+0.92%	12	Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:31.230	+0.495	22	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.181	+0.82%	5	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:31.280	+0.545	22	318.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.250	+0.90%	11	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.305	+0.570	17	321.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.351	+0.616	17	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.235	+1.97%	10	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:31.369	+0.634	22	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.371	+1.03%	13	Medium
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.433	+0.698	20	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.541	+1.22%	10	Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.455	+0.720	19	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.674	+1.36%	10	Medium
13	Michele Pirro	01:31.765	+1.030	17	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.675	+1.36%	5	Soft
14	Valentino Rossi	01:31.775	+1.040	15	315.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.940	+0.56%	7	Soft
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.868	+1.133	19	322.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.380	+2.13%	11	Hard
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.880	+1.145	17	321.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:31.905	+1.170	19	318.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.345	+3.19%	5	Hard
18	Tito Rabat	01:32.159	+1.424	21	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.277	+2.02%	11	Medium
19	Karel Abraham	01:32.278	+1.543	19	318.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.012	+3.92%	6	Soft
20	Mika Kallio	01:32.467	+1.732	19	318.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.304	+2.05%	5	Medium
21	Andrea Iannone	01:32.568	+1.833	18	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.039	+7.23%	5	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.887	+2.152	20	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:34.318	+3.16%	6	Medium
23	Iker Lecuona	01:33.114	+2.379	21	312.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.844	+3.73%	12	Medium

FP3 · 16.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.232	—	20	315.4	Medium / Soft	1:31.677	+0.39%	6	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.456	+0.224	22	324.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.318	—	14	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:30.543	+0.311	19	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:31.688	+0.41%	5	Medium
4	Valentino Rossi	01:30.630	+0.398	22	319.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.723	+0.491	22	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:32.178	+0.94%	5	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:30.735	+0.503	20	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.253	+1.02%	11	Medium
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.847	+0.615	21	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.851	+0.619	22	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:30.958	+0.726	23	319.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.456	+1.25%	5	Soft
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.996	+0.764	19	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Pol Espargaro	01:31.039	+0.807	20	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.260	+1.03%	4	Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:31.093	+0.861	23	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.022	+0.77%	10	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	01:31.205	+0.973	22	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.541	+1.34%	13	Soft
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.383	+1.151	19	321.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Andrea Iannone	01:31.667	+1.435	22	316.8	missing / missing	1:32.627	+1.43%	11	Soft
16	Michele Pirro	01:31.671	+1.439	19	322.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Karel Abraham	01:31.786	+1.554	19	319.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.792	+1.61%	5	Medium
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.868	+1.636	13	318.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Tito Rabat	01:32.265	+2.033	24	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.289	+2.16%	15	Soft
20	Iker Lecuona	01:32.398	+2.166	20	315.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.971	+2.91%	11	Medium
21	Mika Kallio	01:32.521	+2.289	21	316.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.599	+2.367	15	324.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.213	+2.08%	9	Soft
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.046	+2.814	18	315.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.827	+2.75%	4	Soft

FP4 · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:30.484	—	15	318.3	Medium / Hard	1:31.293	+0.38%	7	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.735	+0.251	14	324.3	Hard / Hard	1:30.946	—	7	Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.863	+0.379	16	316.8	Medium / Hard	1:31.846	+0.99%	12	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:30.971	+0.487	16	328.9	Medium / Hard	1:31.309	+0.40%	12	Hard
5	Alex Rins	01:31.067	+0.583	16	321.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.626	+0.75%	12	Hard
6	Joan Mir	01:31.181	+0.697	16	319.8	Medium / Hard	1:31.245	+0.33%	7	Hard
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.385	+0.901	14	327.4	Medium / Hard	1:31.761	+0.90%	10	Hard
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.393	+0.909	18	315.4	Medium / Hard	1:31.675	+0.80%	13	Hard
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.400	+0.916	17	322.8	Medium / Hard	1:31.982	+1.14%	12	Hard
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.518	+1.034	15	325.8	Medium / Hard	1:31.854	+1.00%	11	Hard
11	Valentino Rossi	01:31.562	+1.078	19	315.4	Medium / Hard	1:31.884	+1.03%	17	Hard
12	Johann Zarco	01:31.594	+1.110	16	316.8	Medium / Hard	1:32.036	+1.20%	11	Hard
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.686	+1.202	5	319.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Iannone	01:31.767	+1.283	16	318.3	Medium / Hard	1:31.888	+1.04%	6	Hard
15	Pol Espargaro	01:31.896	+1.412	14	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.011	+1.17%	5	Soft
16	Tito Rabat	01:31.971	+1.487	17	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.272	+3.66%	12	Hard
17	Mika Kallio	01:32.108	+1.624	18	319.8	Medium / Hard	1:32.673	+1.90%	11	Soft
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.147	+1.663	15	321.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Michele Pirro	01:32.287	+1.803	9	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.573	+1.79%	7	Soft
20	Karel Abraham	01:32.427	+1.943	14	319.8	Medium / Hard	1:32.830	+2.07%	8	Hard
21	Iker Lecuona	01:32.662	+2.178	16	318.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.212	+2.49%	12	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.854	+2.370	14	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.301	+2.59%	6	Soft

Q1 · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Rins	01:30.538	—	8	318.3	Medium / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:30.543	+0.005	7	318.3	Medium / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:30.826	+0.288	7	318.3	Medium / Soft
4	Michele Pirro	01:30.949	+0.411	7	325.8	Medium / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.972	+0.434	8	318.3	Medium / Soft
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.295	+0.757	8	319.8	Soft / Soft
7	Mika Kallio	01:31.383	+0.845	8	321.3	Medium / Soft
8	Tito Rabat	01:31.507	+0.969	8	322.8	Medium / Soft
9	Iker Lecuona	01:31.658	+1.120	8	315.4	Medium / Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	01:31.714	+1.176	8	313.9	Medium / Soft
11	Karel Abraham	01:31.815	+1.277	5	318.3	Medium / Soft
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.839	+1.301	8	321.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 16.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.978	—	8	315.4	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.010	+0.032	8	324.3	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:30.086	+0.108	7	324.3	Soft / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:30.178	+0.200	8	315.4	Medium / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.449	+0.471	8	315.4	Medium / Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.511	+0.533	8	324.3	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:30.573	+0.595	8	318.3	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:30.595	+0.617	8	319.8	Medium / Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.726	+0.748	8	322.8	Medium / Soft
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.771	+0.793	9	324.3	Medium / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:30.908	+0.930	9	319.8	Medium / Hard
12	Valentino Rossi	01:30.954	+0.976	8	318.3	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 17.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:31.136	—	10	322.8	— / —	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.295	+0.159	12	316.8	— / —	—			—
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.445	+0.309	10	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.531	+0.395	12	316.8	Medium / Hard	1:31.942	+0.12%	9	Hard
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.584	+0.448	13	315.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.834	—	10	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.607	+0.471	13	325.8	— / —	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:31.622	+0.486	11	319.8	— / —	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:31.672	+0.536	12	319.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:31.700	+0.564	13	325.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.011	+0.19%	10	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:31.801	+0.665	13	318.3	missing / missing	1:32.238	+0.44%	9	missing
11	Valentino Rossi	01:31.851	+0.715	13	316.8	Soft / Hard	—			—
12	Andrea Iannone	01:31.924	+0.788	12	318.3	— / —	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:31.936	+0.800	13	318.3	— / —	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.969	+0.833	11	318.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.044	+0.908	12	321.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Karel Abraham	01:32.291	+1.155	13	321.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.094	+2.46%	10	Soft
17	Michele Pirro	01:32.392	+1.256	12	322.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Mika Kallio	01:32.567	+1.431	13	318.3	— / —	—			—
19	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.616	+1.480	12	318.3	— / —	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	01:32.628	+1.492	12	321.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.494	+1.81%	6	Soft
21	Iker Lecuona	01:32.811	+1.675	13	312.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.024	+1.30%	11	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.884	+1.748	11	316.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.242	+1.53%	5	Soft

Race · 17.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:21.469	25	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.653	—	25	Hard
2	Fabio Quartararo	+1.026	20	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.763	+0.12%	25	Hard
3	Jack Miller	+2.409	16	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.758	+0.12%	24	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+3.326	13	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.845	+0.21%	25	Hard
5	Alex Rins	+3.508	11	27	Medium / Soft	1:31.818	+0.18%	25	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	+8.829	10	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.898	+0.27%	25	Hard
7	Joan Mir	+10.622	9	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.137	+0.53%	25	Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	+22.992	8	27	Medium / missing	1:32.515	+0.94%	25	missing
9	Aleix Espargaro	+32.704	7	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.835	+1.29%	25	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	+32.973	6	27	Medium / Hard	1:32.660	+1.10%	24	Hard
11	Tito Rabat	+42.795	5	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.134	+1.62%	25	Soft
12	Mika Kallio	+45.732	4	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.179	+1.67%	25	Soft
13	Jorge Lorenzo	+51.044	3	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.505	+2.02%	25	Medium
14	Karel Abraham	+64.871	2	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.959	+2.52%	24	Soft
15	Hafizh Syahrin	+76.487	1	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.502	+3.11%	25	Soft
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	26	Medium / Soft	1:32.882	+1.34%	22	Soft
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	10	missing / missing	1:31.824	+0.19%	8	missing
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.979	+0.36%	11	Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	18	Medium / Hard	1:31.752	+0.11%	16	Hard
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.728	+1.17%	10	Soft
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	13	Medium / Hard	1:32.281	+0.69%	11	Hard
Retired	Michele Pirro		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:33.138	+1.62%	6	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:31.778*	—	+0.105	Medium	4
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.798	+0.020	+0.275	Medium	7
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.917	+0.139	+0.512	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:32.134	+0.356	+0.344	Medium	6
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.223	+0.445	+0.574	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:32.250	+0.472	+0.562	Medium	5
Cal Crutchlow	1:32.264*	+0.486	+0.729	Medium	3
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.557*	+0.779	+0.209	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.720*	+0.942	+0.221	Medium	3
Andrea Iannone	1:32.852*	+1.074	+0.224	Medium	3
Tito Rabat	1:32.893*	+1.115	+0.229	Medium	4
Hafizh Syahrin	1:33.879*	+2.101	+0.491	Medium	3
Iker Lecuona	1:34.075*	+2.297	+0.094	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	58%	2 ✓
2	Alex Rins	42%	1 ✓
3	Johann Zarco	33%	3
4	Aleix Espargaro	19%	5
5	Jorge Lorenzo	18%	6
6	Andrea Iannone	8%	10
7	Michele Pirro	10%	4
8	Karel Abraham	4%	11
9	Tito Rabat	2%	8
10	Mika Kallio	3%	7
11	Iker Lecuona	3%	9
12	Hafizh Syahrin	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	38%	70%	90%	1
2	Marc Marquez	24%	51%	84%	2
3	Maverick Viñales	17%	50%	82%	4
4	Jack Miller	4%	33%	70%	3
5	Valentino Rossi	3%	27%	54%	12
6	Franco Morbidelli	6%	22%	55%	5
7	Danilo Petrucci	1%	11%	45%	10
8	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	12%	36%	6
9	Joan Mir	1%	7%	27%	7
10	Cal Crutchlow	2%	7%	21%	9
11	Pol Espargaro	1%	7%	22%	11
12	Alex Rins	0%	2%	14%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	26%	54%	67%	76%	21%	2
Marc Marquez	2	22%	55%	72%	85%	13%	1
Jack Miller	3	12%	39%	55%	71%	26%	3
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	40%	61%	83%	13%	6
Franco Morbidelli	5	8%	28%	50%	76%	18%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	6	6%	25%	47%	80%	13%	4
Joan Mir	7	4%	17%	36%	72%	19%	7
Alex Rins	8	3%	13%	29%	68%	20%	5
Cal Crutchlow	9	2%	8%	20%	58%	28%	—
Danilo Petrucci	10	1%	6%	16%	59%	20%	—
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	5%	13%	52%	20%	10
Valentino Rossi	12	1%	4%	11%	52%	10%	8
Johann Zarco	13	0%	3%	7%	43%	14%	—
Michele Pirro	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	20%	—
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	25%	9
Jorge Lorenzo	16	0%	1%	4%	26%	11%	13
Mika Kallio	17	0%	1%	2%	11%	36%	12
Tito Rabat	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	19%	11
Iker Lecuona	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	19%	—
Andrea Iannone	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	26%	—
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	29%	14
Hafizh Syahrin	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	395	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	256	−139
3	Maverick Viñales	201	−194
4	Alex Rins	194	−201
5	Danilo Petrucci	176	−219
6	Fabio Quartararo	172	−223

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/14

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

2.750 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Bradley Smith, from P22 to P8.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Johann Zarco (11 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pol Espargaro	1:42.990	—	+0.406	Wet-Soft	12
Michele Pirro	1:43.244	+0.254	+0.267	Wet-Soft	12
Daniel Pedrosa	1:43.558	+0.568	+0.089	Wet-Soft	5
Bradley Smith	1:44.945	+1.955	+0.085	Wet-Soft	11
Alvaro Bautista	1:45.031	+2.041	+0.086	Wet-Soft	5
Stefan Bradl	1:45.064	+2.074	+0.530	Wet-Soft	12
Hafizh Syahrin	1:45.228	+2.238	+0.491	Wet-Soft	12
Karel Abraham	1:47.706	+4.716	—	Wet-Soft	12
Jordi Torres	1:47.804	+4.814	+0.140	Wet-Soft	12

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Soft	100%	+2.00%	−0.044	1	3	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.