Round 18 of 19 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2019

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

01.11 – 03.11.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	40:14.632	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.059	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+5.611	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.965	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+6.350	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+9.993	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+12.864	9
8	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+17.252	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+19.773	7
10	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+22.854	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+24.821	5
12	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+30.251	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+30.447	3
14	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+34.215	2
15	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+34.461	1
16	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+44.319	0
17	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+47.343	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 28%	Maverick Viñales · 23% · from P2	0.80 / 0.80	2.5 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:00.216	—	+0.292	Medium	18
Marc Marquez	2:00.427	+0.211	+0.210	Soft	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:00.633	+0.417	+0.226	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:00.646	+0.430	+0.217	Medium	18
Valentino Rossi	2:00.746	+0.530	+0.508	Medium	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.810	+0.594	+0.275	Soft	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:00.871	+0.655	+0.729	Medium	12
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.905	+0.689	+0.512	Medium	18
Johann Zarco	2:00.996	+0.780	+0.344	Medium	14
Joan Mir	2:01.058	+0.842	+0.562	Medium	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.128	+0.912	+0.574	Medium	18
Pol Espargaro	2:01.306	+1.090	+0.406	Medium	18
Jack Miller	2:01.360	+1.144	+0.105	Soft	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.378	+1.162	+0.209	Medium	18
Andrea Iannone	2:01.526	+1.310	+0.224	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	2:01.713	+1.497	+0.221	Medium	18
Jorge Lorenzo	2:01.958	+1.742	+1.158	Medium	18
Mika Kallio	2:02.056	+1.840	+0.462	Medium	18
Karel Abraham	2:02.140	+1.924	—	Soft	18
Hafizh Syahrin	2:02.486	+2.270	+0.491	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

3.059 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P11 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:01:54		Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:24:36	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:31:17	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:34:57	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:38:23	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Maverick Viñales (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marc Marquez	11	2	+9
Andrea Dovizioso	10	4	+6
Mika Kallio	19	16	+3
Fabio Quartararo	1	8	−7
Cal Crutchlow	5	11	−6
Karel Abraham	16	20	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	11→2	+7.3
Andrea Dovizioso	10→3	+5.6
Maverick Viñales	2→1	+2.5
Jack Miller	4→8	−3.2
Fabio Quartararo	1→7	−4.2
Karel Abraham	16→17	−4.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	75%	+0.76%	+0.053	1	1	9.7
Soft	25%	+0.50%	+0.055	0	2	7.4

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.1 °C

Air

max 29.8 °C

78%

Humidity

3.0 mm

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.027	—	18	319.5	Medium / Soft	2:01.010	+0.52%	6	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.110	+0.083	16	320.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.995	+0.50%	5	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:59.218	+0.191	16	321.4	Soft / Soft	2:00.390	—	8	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:59.517	+0.490	13	325.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.527	+0.500	16	327.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.888	+1.24%	5	Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:59.546	+0.519	17	324.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.950	+0.47%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.854	+0.827	13	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Valentino Rossi	01:59.893	+0.866	17	319.5	Soft / Soft	2:01.122	+0.61%	5	Medium
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.975	+0.948	16	325.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.713	+1.10%	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:59.996	+0.969	14	326.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Joan Mir	02:00.410	+1.383	16	321.4	Soft / Soft	2:01.770	+1.15%	5	Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.826	+1.799	14	325.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.494	+0.92%	5	Medium
13	Karel Abraham	02:00.874	+1.847	15	320.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	02:00.951	+1.924	14	320.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.000	+1.973	16	323.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.004	+1.34%	7	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	02:01.038	+2.011	16	324.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.276	+1.57%	10	Medium
17	Andrea Iannone	02:01.172	+2.145	14	321.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.515	+2.488	15	322.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.579	+2.552	14	315.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Mika Kallio	02:01.959	+2.932	16	317.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.412	+6.385	4	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 01.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.576	—	16	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.585	+0.32%	5	Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.206	+0.630	17	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.050	+0.71%	10	Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:59.284	+0.708	17	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.553	+0.30%	6	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.502	+0.926	15	321.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:59.593	+1.017	16	328.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.944	+0.62%	7	Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.707	+1.131	14	326.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.711	+1.135	16	326.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.416	+1.01%	5	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.774	+1.198	16	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:02.082	+1.57%	5	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:59.845	+1.269	18	320.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.198	—	7	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:59.849	+1.273	17	323.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.319	+0.10%	5	Medium
11	Joan Mir	01:59.984	+1.408	19	324.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.722	+1.27%	6	Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.057	+1.481	16	327.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.114	+0.76%	4	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	02:00.215	+1.639	16	324.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.360	+0.14%	5	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	02:00.268	+1.692	15	325.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.241	+0.87%	5	Medium
15	Karel Abraham	02:00.477	+1.901	15	323.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	02:00.658	+2.082	14	322.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.705	+2.129	16	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Andrea Iannone	02:01.190	+2.614	9	321.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Mika Kallio	02:02.017	+3.441	16	319.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	02:02.429	+3.853	14	316.7	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 02.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.761	—	17	320.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.977	+0.216	19	320.4	Medium / Soft	2:00.018	+0.53%	13	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:59.066	+0.305	17	326.2	Medium / Soft	1:59.930	+0.46%	5	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:59.074	+0.313	18	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:59.385	—	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:59.227	+0.466	17	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.253	+0.492	17	327.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.347	+1.64%	5	Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:59.401	+0.640	17	324.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:59.486	+0.725	17	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:59.501	+0.740	17	326.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.362	+0.82%	5	Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.535	+0.774	18	324.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.564	+0.803	13	321.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Valentino Rossi	01:59.643	+0.882	16	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.938	+1.30%	5	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.754	+0.993	14	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.892	+1.26%	5	Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.244	+1.483	16	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Karel Abraham	02:00.290	+1.529	15	329.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	02:00.353	+1.592	14	321.4	Medium / Soft	2:02.060	+2.24%	5	Medium
17	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.406	+1.645	14	323.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Andrea Iannone	02:00.645	+1.884	16	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.236	+1.55%	4	Soft
19	Mika Kallio	02:00.988	+2.227	16	319.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.980	+3.219	16	317.6	Medium / Soft	2:02.202	+2.36%	4	Medium

FP4 · 02.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.600	—	13	323.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.952	+0.42%	8	Medium
2	Valentino Rossi	01:59.796	+0.196	12	320.4	Medium / Medium	2:01.202	+0.63%	6	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.957	+0.357	11	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.927	+0.40%	5	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.973	+0.373	13	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.263	+0.68%	5	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:59.980	+0.380	12	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.444	—	6	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:59.997	+0.397	10	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.638	+0.16%	4	Soft
7	Joan Mir	02:00.297	+0.697	11	325.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.617	+0.14%	6	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.326	+0.726	11	324.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.892	+0.37%	8	Medium
9	Jack Miller	02:00.417	+0.817	11	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.848	+0.34%	8	Medium
10	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.538	+0.938	11	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.156	+0.59%	7	Medium
11	Alex Rins	02:00.642	+1.042	10	325.3	missing / missing	—			—
12	Pol Espargaro	02:00.744	+1.144	12	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.514	+0.89%	10	Soft
13	Andrea Iannone	02:01.114	+1.514	12	320.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.117	+1.517	10	323.3	Medium / Medium	2:01.261	+0.68%	5	Medium
15	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.159	+1.559	11	324.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	02:01.342	+1.742	12	323.3	Medium / Soft	2:04.923	+3.72%	10	Soft
17	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.369	+1.769	11	326.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.665	+1.01%	6	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	02:01.474	+1.874	8	325.3	Soft / Soft	2:02.072	+1.35%	4	Soft
19	Hafizh Syahrin	02:02.508	+2.908	12	317.6	Medium / Soft	2:02.765	+1.93%	5	Soft
Retired	Mika Kallio		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 02.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.216	—	7	328.2	Medium / Soft
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.336	+0.120	6	329.2	Medium / Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:59.374	+0.158	7	326.2	Soft / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.435	+0.219	7	326.2	Medium / Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:59.812	+0.596	6	324.3	Medium / Soft
6	Karel Abraham	02:00.072	+0.856	7	328.2	Soft / Soft
7	Andrea Iannone	02:00.205	+0.989	6	325.3	Medium / Soft
8	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.478	+1.262	6	327.2	Medium / Soft
9	Mika Kallio	02:00.644	+1.428	7	322.3	Medium / Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	02:01.045	+1.829	6	318.5	missing / missing

Q2 · 02.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.303	—	7	325.3	Medium / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:58.406	+0.103	6	325.3	Medium / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.432	+0.129	7	324.3	Medium / Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:58.725	+0.422	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:58.951	+0.648	7	326.2	Medium / Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:59.000	+0.697	7	327.2	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:59.090	+0.787	7	325.3	missing / missing
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.097	+0.794	7	330.2	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:59.139	+0.836	7	327.2	Medium / Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.173	+0.870	7	332.3	Soft / Soft
11	Marc Marquez	01:59.178	+0.875	5	327.2	Medium / Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.640	+1.337	6	327.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 03.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	01:59.516	—	9	326.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:59.784	+0.268	9	323.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.098	—	5	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.832	+0.316	10	320.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.147	+0.04%	7	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:59.857	+0.341	10	327.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.913	+0.397	10	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.515	+0.35%	7	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.916	+0.400	10	322.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.221	+0.10%	7	Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	02:00.013	+0.497	10	322.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.382	+0.24%	7	Medium
8	Jack Miller	02:00.023	+0.507	10	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.589	+0.41%	7	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	02:00.172	+0.656	10	320.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.419	+0.27%	5	Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.174	+0.658	9	325.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Alex Rins	02:00.249	+0.733	10	324.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.687	+0.49%	7	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.339	+0.823	9	327.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.359	+0.843	10	324.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.863	+0.64%	7	Medium
14	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.460	+0.944	10	326.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.762	+0.55%	6	Soft
15	Andrea Iannone	02:00.525	+1.009	10	323.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	02:00.667	+1.151	10	323.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.872	+0.64%	8	Medium
17	Karel Abraham	02:01.124	+1.608	10	326.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.600	+1.25%	7	Soft
18	Mika Kallio	02:01.238	+1.722	10	319.5	Medium / Medium	2:01.687	+1.32%	7	Medium
19	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.504	+1.988	10	324.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.779	+1.40%	6	Soft
20	Hafizh Syahrin	02:02.224	+2.708	10	320.4	missing / missing	2:02.523	+2.02%	7	missing

Race · 03.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	40:14.632	25	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.216	—	18	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+3.059	20	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.427	+0.18%	18	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+5.611	16	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.633	+0.35%	18	Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	+5.965	13	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.746	+0.44%	18	Medium
5	Alex Rins	+6.350	11	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.646	+0.36%	18	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+9.993	10	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.905	+0.57%	18	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+12.864	9	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.810	+0.49%	18	Soft
8	Jack Miller	+17.252	8	20	Soft / Soft	2:01.360	+0.95%	18	Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	+19.773	7	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.128	+0.76%	18	Medium
10	Joan Mir	+22.854	6	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.058	+0.70%	18	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	+24.821	5	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.306	+0.91%	18	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	+30.251	4	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.713	+1.25%	18	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	+30.447	3	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.378	+0.97%	18	Medium
14	Jorge Lorenzo	+34.215	2	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.958	+1.45%	18	Medium
15	Mika Kallio	+34.461	1	20	Medium / Medium	2:02.056	+1.53%	18	Medium
16	Hafizh Syahrin	+44.319	0	20	Soft / Medium	2:02.486	+1.89%	18	Medium
17	Karel Abraham	+47.343	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.140	+1.60%	18	Soft
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	11	Medium / Medium	2:01.526	+1.09%	9	Medium
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	14	Medium / Medium	2:00.871	+0.55%	12	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	16	Medium / Medium	2:00.996	+0.65%	14	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.014	—	+0.275	Medium	10
Maverick Viñales	2:00.072	+0.058	+0.292	Medium	15
Marc Marquez	2:00.200	+0.186	+0.210	Medium	7
Joan Mir	2:00.293	+0.279	+0.562	Medium	9
Valentino Rossi	2:00.487	+0.473	+0.508	Medium	18
Alex Rins	2:00.676	+0.662	+0.217	Medium	31
Cal Crutchlow	2:00.695	+0.681	+0.729	Medium	11
Pol Espargaro	2:00.746	+0.732	+0.406	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	2:00.876	+0.862	+0.344	Medium	13
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.885	+0.871	+0.209	Medium	13
Andrea Iannone	2:00.907	+0.893	+0.224	Medium	5
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.016	+1.002	+0.574	Medium	13
Francesco Bagnaia	2:01.306	+1.292	+0.221	Medium	6
Jorge Lorenzo	2:01.369	+1.355	+1.158	Medium	9
Mika Kallio	2:01.586	+1.572	+0.462	Medium	11
Hafizh Syahrin	2:02.550	+2.536	+0.491	Medium	9

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	58%	3
2	Cal Crutchlow	42%	1 ✓
3	Aleix Espargaro	33%	4
4	Danilo Petrucci	19%	2 ✓
5	Karel Abraham	18%	6
6	Pol Espargaro	8%	5
7	Jorge Lorenzo	10%	8
8	Andrea Iannone	4%	7
9	Mika Kallio	2%	9
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	38%	70%	90%	1
2	Franco Morbidelli	24%	51%	84%	3
3	Marc Marquez	17%	50%	83%	11
4	Maverick Viñales	4%	32%	69%	2
5	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	27%	55%	10
6	Jack Miller	7%	23%	55%	4
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	11%	45%	12
8	Valentino Rossi	2%	12%	36%	6
9	Alex Rins	1%	7%	27%	7
10	Johann Zarco	2%	7%	21%	9
11	Cal Crutchlow	1%	7%	22%	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	0%	2%	14%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	28%	56%	68%	77%	22%	7
Maverick Viñales	2	23%	55%	72%	86%	13%	1
Franco Morbidelli	3	14%	44%	62%	79%	18%	6
Jack Miller	4	11%	34%	52%	71%	26%	8
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	25%	45%	68%	27%	—
Valentino Rossi	6	6%	26%	49%	82%	10%	4
Alex Rins	7	4%	17%	36%	72%	21%	5
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	13%	30%	69%	20%	9
Johann Zarco	9	2%	9%	25%	70%	13%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	10	1%	7%	19%	65%	13%	3
Marc Marquez	11	1%	5%	15%	58%	13%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	12	1%	3%	8%	40%	31%	12
Joan Mir	13	0%	2%	7%	40%	20%	10
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	25%	13
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	27%	21%	11
Karel Abraham	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	30%	17
Andrea Iannone	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	26%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	18	0%	0%	1%	14%	11%	14
Mika Kallio	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	37%	15
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	20%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	375	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	240	−135
3	Alex Rins	183	−192
4	Maverick Viñales	176	−199
5	Danilo Petrucci	169	−206
6	Fabio Quartararo	163	−212

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.898 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hafizh Syahrin, from P23 to P10.

Longest battle: Takaaki Nakagami vs Thomas Luthi (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:01.066	—	+0.210	Soft	18
Valentino Rossi	2:01.069	+0.003	+0.508	Soft	17
Maverick Viñales	2:01.330	+0.264	+0.292	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:01.378	+0.312	+0.217	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	2:01.454	+0.388	+0.344	Soft	18
Daniel Pedrosa	2:01.546	+0.480	+0.089	Soft	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:01.700	+0.634	+0.226	Soft	18
Alvaro Bautista	2:02.013	+0.947	+0.086	Soft	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:02.296	+1.230	+0.574	Soft	18
Hafizh Syahrin	2:02.366	+1.300	+0.491	Soft	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	96%	+1.07%	+0.032	1	3	10.1
Medium	5%	+1.08%	+0.091	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.