Round 9 of 19 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2019

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

05.07 – 07.07.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:08.276	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.587	20
3	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+7.741	16
4	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+16.577	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+16.669	11
6	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.836	10
7	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+17.156	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.110	8
9	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+20.634	7
10	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+22.708	6
11	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+26.345	5
12	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+26.574	4
13	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+32.753	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+32.925	2
15	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+37.934	1
16	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+41.615	0
17	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+56.189	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+57.377	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.75 / 0.75	2.8 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:22.001	—	+0.217	Hard	16
Marc Marquez	1:22.114	+0.113	+0.210	Medium	28
Maverick Viñales	1:22.161	+0.160	+0.292	Hard	27
Cal Crutchlow	1:22.214	+0.213	+0.729	Medium	28
Aleix Espargaro	1:22.597	+0.596	+0.209	Hard	26
Pol Espargaro	1:22.620	+0.619	+0.406	Hard	28
Valentino Rossi	1:22.664	+0.663	+0.508	Medium	28
Joan Mir	1:22.691	+0.690	+0.562	Hard	28
Franco Morbidelli	1:22.704	+0.703	+0.512	Medium	28
Danilo Petrucci	1:22.724	+0.723	+0.574	Hard	28
Jack Miller	1:22.756	+0.755	+0.105	Soft	28
Stefan Bradl	1:22.757	+0.756	+0.530	Soft	28
Andrea Dovizioso	1:22.784	+0.783	+0.226	Hard	28
Tito Rabat	1:22.802	+0.801	+0.229	Hard	28
Miguel Oliveira	1:22.923	+0.922	+0.193	Hard	27
Takaaki Nakagami	1:22.931	+0.930	+0.359	Soft	28
Andrea Iannone	1:23.157	+1.156	+0.224	Soft	28
Karel Abraham	1:23.302	+1.301	—	Hard	28
Hafizh Syahrin	1:23.342	+1.341	+0.491	Hard	28
Francesco Bagnaia	1:23.641	+1.640	+0.221	Hard	27

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.587 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P22 to P11.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Maverick Viñales (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:03		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:01:59	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:01	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:35	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:58	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:39:17	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Danilo Petrucci	12	6	+6
Andrea Dovizioso	13	9	+4
Miguel Oliveira	20	17	+3
Fabio Quartararo	2	7	−5
Takaaki Nakagami	10	15	−5
Andrea Iannone	16	20	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Danilo Petrucci	12→4	+5.9
Andrea Dovizioso	13→5	+5.5
Tito Rabat	22→11	+5.3
Francesco Bagnaia	17→17	−3.9
Pol Espargaro	8→12	−4.7
Takaaki Nakagami	10→14	−5.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	59%	+0.92%	+0.049	0	1	10.7
Medium	23%	+0.53%	+0.051	1	2	5.3
Soft	18%	+1.03%	+0.047	0	0	10.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.5 °C

Air

max 19.2 °C

43%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

16 km/h

Wind

gusts 40 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.390	—	22	288.6	Soft / Medium	1:22.646	+0.20%	14	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:21.464	+0.074	24	293.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.483	—	18	Medium
3	Valentino Rossi	01:21.964	+0.574	24	288.8	Soft / Medium	1:23.100	+0.75%	13	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:21.967	+0.577	25	290.6	Soft / Medium	1:22.712	+0.28%	19	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:22.251	+0.861	24	290.6	Soft / Medium	1:22.769	+0.35%	13	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:22.282	+0.892	18	294.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Jack Miller	01:22.365	+0.975	23	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:22.923	+0.53%	13	Medium
8	Andrea Iannone	01:22.397	+1.007	22	289.2	Soft / Medium	1:22.817	+0.41%	7	Medium
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:22.415	+1.025	20	288.3	Soft / Medium	1:22.752	+0.33%	10	Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:22.439	+1.049	20	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:22.950	+0.57%	10	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:22.458	+1.068	20	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:22.961	+0.58%	7	Medium
12	Karel Abraham	01:22.487	+1.097	22	288.2	Medium / Soft	1:23.760	+1.55%	13	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:22.512	+1.122	27	287.7	Medium / Medium	1:22.874	+0.47%	18	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:22.543	+1.153	20	293.0	Soft / Medium	1:24.670	+2.65%	6	Medium
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.566	+1.176	22	290.1	Soft / Medium	1:23.099	+0.75%	7	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:22.705	+1.315	23	290.4	Soft / Medium	1:23.558	+1.30%	16	Medium
17	Stefan Bradl	01:22.729	+1.339	24	293.0	Medium / Medium	1:23.080	+0.72%	14	Medium
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.729	+1.339	16	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:23.630	+1.39%	12	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:22.762	+1.372	24	288.7	Soft / Medium	1:23.452	+1.18%	14	Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:22.856	+1.466	25	292.4	Soft / Medium	1:23.291	+0.98%	18	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:22.898	+1.508	29	291.4	Soft / Medium	1:24.245	+2.14%	25	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:23.957	+2.567	22	287.1	Soft / Medium	1:24.410	+2.34%	13	Medium

FP2 · 05.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:20.705	—	26	294.4	Medium / Soft	1:21.726	+0.03%	15	Hard
2	Alex Rins	01:21.046	+0.341	26	292.3	Medium / Hard	1:22.152	+0.55%	13	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.065	+0.360	23	291.3	Medium / Soft	1:21.702	—	14	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:21.193	+0.488	23	293.0	Soft / Soft	1:21.968	+0.33%	8	Hard
5	Pol Espargaro	01:21.265	+0.560	21	295.5	Medium / Soft	1:22.023	+0.39%	4	Hard
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:21.392	+0.687	23	294.0	Medium / Soft	1:22.308	+0.74%	13	Hard
7	Jack Miller	01:21.442	+0.737	23	295.2	Medium / Soft	1:22.192	+0.60%	11	Hard
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:21.484	+0.779	20	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:22.512	+0.99%	12	Hard
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:21.489	+0.784	24	295.0	Medium / Hard	1:22.553	+1.04%	6	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:21.538	+0.833	24	290.1	Medium / Soft	1:22.706	+1.23%	14	Hard
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.543	+0.838	19	294.8	Medium / Hard	1:22.236	+0.65%	5	Hard
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.641	+0.936	23	290.0	Soft / Soft	1:22.344	+0.79%	6	Hard
13	Joan Mir	01:21.678	+0.973	24	291.6	Medium / Hard	1:22.169	+0.57%	16	Hard
14	Stefan Bradl	01:21.693	+0.988	23	293.7	Medium / Soft	1:22.940	+1.52%	5	Hard
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.729	+1.024	21	286.7	Medium / Soft	1:22.757	+1.29%	10	Medium
16	Andrea Iannone	01:21.758	+1.053	21	291.3	Medium / Soft	1:24.378	+3.28%	10	Hard
17	Karel Abraham	01:21.897	+1.192	23	290.0	Soft / Soft	1:23.349	+2.02%	13	Hard
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.899	+1.194	23	290.9	Medium / Soft	1:23.136	+1.76%	11	Hard
19	Johann Zarco	01:22.001	+1.296	20	292.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.860	+1.42%	13	Hard
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:22.208	+1.503	20	289.0	Medium / Soft	1:23.129	+1.75%	10	Hard
21	Tito Rabat	01:22.462	+1.757	24	292.3	Medium / Soft	1:23.171	+1.80%	14	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:20.347	—	26	294.9	— / —	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.515	+0.168	22	290.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.053	+1.11%	6	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:20.634	+0.287	22	293.7	Medium / Soft	1:21.867	+0.89%	5	Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:20.653	+0.306	21	295.9	— / —	—			—
5	Alex Rins	01:20.679	+0.332	23	293.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:20.833	+0.486	22	290.7	Medium / Medium	1:21.660	+0.63%	6	Medium
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:20.867	+0.520	22	292.2	— / —	—			—
8	Jack Miller	01:20.891	+0.544	23	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:20.986	+0.639	22	292.7	Medium / Hard	1:21.149	—	5	Hard
10	Pol Espargaro	01:21.019	+0.672	19	295.7	— / —	—			—
11	Valentino Rossi	01:21.026	+0.679	25	291.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.086	+0.739	18	296.2	Hard / Hard	1:21.526	+0.47%	5	Hard
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.125	+0.778	24	288.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:21.184	+0.837	22	296.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.375	+1.028	23	292.2	Medium / Soft	1:22.684	+1.89%	12	Hard
16	Andrea Iannone	01:21.381	+1.034	25	291.8	Medium / Hard	1:22.358	+1.49%	4	Hard
17	Johann Zarco	01:21.435	+1.088	20	292.5	— / —	—			—
18	Stefan Bradl	01:21.443	+1.096	24	295.9	Medium / Soft	1:22.553	+1.73%	13	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:21.611	+1.264	22	290.9	Medium / Hard	1:22.582	+1.77%	11	Hard
20	Karel Abraham	01:21.832	+1.485	21	293.0	— / —	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:21.972	+1.625	19	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.150	+1.803	21	293.8	Soft / Soft	1:23.018	+2.30%	6	Medium

FP4 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:21.153	—	20	292.3	Medium / Soft	1:21.829	+0.46%	10	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	01:21.228	+0.075	20	294.9	Hard / Medium	1:21.458	—	12	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:21.457	+0.304	17	291.5	Medium / Hard	1:21.858	+0.49%	13	Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:21.475	+0.322	19	292.2	Medium / Hard	1:22.245	+0.97%	11	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:21.665	+0.512	14	294.1	Hard / Soft	1:22.891	+1.76%	5	Hard
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.794	+0.641	11	287.0	Hard / Hard	1:22.286	+1.02%	6	Hard
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.896	+0.743	19	288.5	Medium / Hard	1:22.420	+1.18%	14	Hard
8	Valentino Rossi	01:21.938	+0.785	18	290.2	Hard / Hard	1:22.310	+1.05%	14	Hard
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.972	+0.819	19	289.4	Medium / Medium	1:22.450	+1.22%	15	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:22.056	+0.903	15	294.7	Hard / Hard	1:22.700	+1.53%	11	Hard
11	Tito Rabat	01:22.119	+0.966	19	290.6	Hard / Soft	1:22.721	+1.55%	9	Hard
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.152	+0.999	16	293.4	Medium / Hard	1:22.492	+1.27%	8	Hard
13	Stefan Bradl	01:22.175	+1.022	18	295.3	Hard / Medium	1:22.483	+1.26%	13	Medium
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:22.205	+1.052	17	295.6	Medium / Soft	1:22.744	+1.58%	13	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:22.216	+1.063	18	290.8	Medium / Hard	1:22.581	+1.38%	13	Hard
16	Andrea Iannone	01:22.238	+1.085	17	290.0	Medium / Soft	1:22.291	+1.02%	5	Soft
17	Jack Miller	01:22.341	+1.188	18	296.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.483	+1.26%	11	Soft
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:22.550	+1.397	17	294.1	Hard / Medium	1:22.750	+1.59%	5	Medium
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.665	+1.512	14	292.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:23.077	+1.924	14	289.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:23.143	+1.990	10	289.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	01:23.332	+2.179	15	289.2	Medium / Soft	1:24.095	+3.24%	5	Hard

Q1 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Valentino Rossi	01:20.933	—	9	290.1	Medium / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.102	+0.169	9	288.6	Hard / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:21.105	+0.172	9	295.8	Medium / Soft
4	Stefan Bradl	01:21.227	+0.294	8	293.0	Medium / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.313	+0.380	8	293.3	Hard / Hard
6	Andrea Iannone	01:21.433	+0.500	9	290.7	Medium / Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:21.446	+0.513	8	293.4	Medium / Soft
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:21.465	+0.532	8	289.9	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:21.637	+0.704	7	292.5	Hard / Hard
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.683	+0.750	8	291.4	Medium / Soft
11	Karel Abraham	01:21.796	+0.863	10	290.2	Medium / Soft
12	Tito Rabat	01:22.119	+1.186	9	289.3	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 06.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:20.195	—	9	295.4	Hard / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.400	+0.205	9	289.7	Medium / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:20.406	+0.211	10	293.6	Medium / Soft
4	Alex Rins	01:20.531	+0.336	8	293.1	Medium / Hard
5	Jack Miller	01:20.690	+0.495	10	295.5	Medium / Hard
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:20.857	+0.662	8	293.8	Hard / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:20.964	+0.769	8	289.0	Medium / Hard
8	Pol Espargaro	01:21.023	+0.828	8	294.8	Medium / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:21.061	+0.866	9	290.0	Medium / Hard
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.104	+0.909	4	289.0	Hard / Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:21.137	+0.942	8	291.0	Medium / Soft
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:21.486	+1.291	5	293.7	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 07.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:23.116	—	7	293.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:23.306	+0.190	10	292.0	Medium / Soft	1:26.221	+0.79%	5	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:23.428	+0.312	11	291.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:23.452	+0.336	11	291.9	Soft / Soft	1:25.543	—	7	Soft
5	Stefan Bradl	01:23.842	+0.726	7	289.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:23.937	+0.821	7	290.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:24.006	+0.890	12	286.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:24.239	+1.123	9	284.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:24.315	+1.199	6	292.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:24.476	+1.360	13	289.0	Medium / Medium	1:29.000	+4.04%	6	Wet-Medium
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.587	+1.471	7	289.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:24.873	+1.757	9	285.9	Soft / Hard	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	01:25.306	+2.190	11	284.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Hafizh Syahrin	01:25.528	+2.412	8	283.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Tito Rabat	01:25.556	+2.440	13	286.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.825	+6.18%	8	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:25.957	+2.841	6	278.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Karel Abraham	01:26.057	+2.941	11	285.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:26.169	+3.053	13	281.2	Medium / Medium	1:28.767	+3.77%	7	Wet-Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:27.044	+3.928	8	285.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.648	+11.532	2	266.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Alex Rins		—	0	0.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Race · 07.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:08.276	25	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.114	+0.14%	28	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	+4.587	20	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.161	+0.20%	27	Hard
3	Cal Crutchlow	+7.741	16	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.214	+0.26%	28	Medium
4	Danilo Petrucci	+16.577	13	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.724	+0.88%	28	Hard
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+16.669	11	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.784	+0.96%	28	Hard
6	Jack Miller	+16.836	10	30	Medium / Soft	1:22.756	+0.92%	28	Soft
7	Joan Mir	+17.156	9	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.691	+0.84%	28	Hard
8	Valentino Rossi	+19.110	8	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.664	+0.81%	28	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	+20.634	7	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.704	+0.86%	28	Medium
10	Stefan Bradl	+22.708	6	30	Medium / Soft	1:22.757	+0.92%	28	Soft
11	Tito Rabat	+26.345	5	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.802	+0.98%	28	Hard
12	Pol Espargaro	+26.574	4	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.620	+0.76%	28	Hard
13	Andrea Iannone	+32.753	3	30	Medium / Soft	1:23.157	+1.41%	28	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+32.925	2	30	Hard / Soft	1:22.931	+1.13%	28	Soft
15	Karel Abraham	+37.934	1	30	Medium / Hard	1:23.302	+1.59%	28	Hard
16	Hafizh Syahrin	+41.615	0	30	Medium / Hard	1:23.342	+1.64%	28	Hard
17	Francesco Bagnaia	+56.189	0	30	Medium / Hard	1:23.641	+2.00%	27	Hard
18	Miguel Oliveira	+57.377	0	30	Medium / Hard	1:22.923	+1.12%	27	Hard
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	28	Hard / Hard	1:22.597	+0.73%	26	Hard
Retired	Alex Rins		0	18	Medium / Hard	1:22.001	—	16	Hard
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	1	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	2	Medium / Hard	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:21.747	—	+0.275	Medium	5
Alex Rins	1:22.091	+0.344	+0.217	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:22.178	+0.431	+0.562	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:22.360	+0.613	+0.512	Medium	16
Takaaki Nakagami	1:22.384*	+0.637	+0.359	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:22.390*	+0.643	+0.105	Medium	4
Tito Rabat	1:23.096	+1.349	+0.229	Medium	8

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Valentino Rossi	57%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	44%	5
3	Andrea Dovizioso	34%	3
4	Miguel Oliveira	19%	10
5	Stefan Bradl	17%	4
6	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	2 ✓
7	Andrea Iannone	10%	6
8	Karel Abraham	4%	11
9	Tito Rabat	3%	12
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	8
11	Johann Zarco	2%	9
12	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	7

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	70%	90%	2
2	Alex Rins	24%	51%	84%	4
3	Marc Marquez	16%	48%	82%	1
4	Jack Miller	4%	34%	69%	5
5	Joan Mir	4%	28%	57%	9
6	Valentino Rossi	7%	22%	56%	11
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	11%	44%	3
8	Pol Espargaro	3%	13%	37%	8
9	Cal Crutchlow	1%	8%	29%	6
10	Franco Morbidelli	3%	8%	22%	7
11	Danilo Petrucci	1%	7%	21%	12
12	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	1%	12%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	61%	75%	84%	14%	1
Fabio Quartararo	2	21%	53%	68%	81%	15%	—
Maverick Viñales	3	16%	48%	67%	84%	13%	2
Alex Rins	4	11%	36%	55%	75%	20%	—
Jack Miller	5	7%	24%	43%	68%	28%	6
Cal Crutchlow	6	5%	20%	38%	66%	28%	3
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	18%	38%	74%	17%	9
Pol Espargaro	8	2%	12%	31%	67%	21%	12
Joan Mir	9	2%	8%	21%	63%	23%	7
Takaaki Nakagami	10	1%	6%	19%	60%	16%	14
Valentino Rossi	11	1%	5%	15%	61%	10%	8
Danilo Petrucci	12	1%	3%	10%	47%	21%	4
Andrea Dovizioso	13	1%	2%	8%	43%	13%	5
Stefan Bradl	14	0%	1%	4%	33%	22%	10
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	27%	25%	—
Andrea Iannone	16	0%	1%	3%	21%	27%	13
Francesco Bagnaia	17	0%	1%	1%	11%	44%	17
Hafizh Syahrin	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	16
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	10%	—
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	8%	18
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	32%	15
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	11

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	160	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	116	−44
3	Danilo Petrucci	108	−52
4	Alex Rins	101	−59
5	Valentino Rossi	72	−88
6	Fabio Quartararo	67	−93

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.196 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hafizh Syahrin, from P17 to P11.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Johann Zarco (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:21.996	—	+0.210	Soft	28
Valentino Rossi	1:22.052	+0.056	+0.508	Medium	28
Cal Crutchlow	1:22.066	+0.070	+0.729	Soft	7
Jorge Lorenzo	1:22.104	+0.108	+1.158	Medium	28
Danilo Petrucci	1:22.150	+0.154	+0.574	Medium	28
Maverick Viñales	1:22.150	+0.154	+0.292	Soft	28
Andrea Dovizioso	1:22.230	+0.234	+0.226	Medium	28
Alvaro Bautista	1:22.239	+0.243	+0.086	Medium	28
Johann Zarco	1:22.432	+0.436	+0.344	Soft	28
Daniel Pedrosa	1:22.446	+0.450	+0.089	Medium	28

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	71%	+0.83%	+0.028	0	1	11.1
Soft	29%	+0.36%	+0.008	1	2	6.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.