Round 10 of 19 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2019

5.403 m · since 1930

02.08 – 04.08.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	39:24.430	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+2.452	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.497	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+4.858	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+6.007	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+9.083	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+12.092	9
8	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+13.976	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+15.724	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.558	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.234	5
12	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+19.738	4
13	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+22.539	3
14	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+30.459	2
15	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+30.500	1
16	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+30.755	0
17	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+37.170	0
18	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+37.343	0
19	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+44.296	0
20	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+48.938	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.79 / 0.79	2.6 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:57.677	—	+0.210	Soft	18
Alex Rins	1:57.697	+0.020	+0.217	Soft	17
Andrea Dovizioso	1:57.762	+0.085	+0.226	Medium	18
Cal Crutchlow	1:57.953	+0.276	+0.729	Soft	18
Jack Miller	1:58.068	+0.391	+0.105	Soft	18
Valentino Rossi	1:58.146	+0.469	+0.508	Soft	18
Danilo Petrucci	1:58.350	+0.673	+0.574	Medium	18
Fabio Quartararo	1:58.353	+0.676	+0.275	Soft	18
Hafizh Syahrin	1:58.444	+0.767	+0.491	Soft	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:58.487	+0.810	+0.359	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	1:58.514	+0.837	+0.292	Soft	18
Pol Espargaro	1:58.727	+1.050	+0.406	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	1:58.754	+1.077	+0.221	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	1:58.872	+1.195	+0.193	Soft	18
Stefan Bradl	1:59.231	+1.554	+0.530	Soft	18
Tito Rabat	1:59.312	+1.635	+0.229	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	1:59.368	+1.691	+0.344	Soft	18
Andrea Iannone	1:59.586	+1.909	+0.224	Soft	18
Karel Abraham	1:59.752	+2.075	—	Soft	18
Aleix Espargaro	1:59.804	+2.127	+0.209	Medium	18
Sylvain Guintoli	2:00.386	+2.709	—	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.452 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Iannone, from P23 to P17.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Jack Miller (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:41:24	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:24	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:42:31		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:54:16	Hafizh Syahrin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Aleix Espargaro	18	11	+7
Andrea Iannone	23	17	+6
Takaaki Nakagami	13	9	+4
Johann Zarco	3	12	−9
Maverick Viñales	9	15	−6
Sylvain Guintoli	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Cal Crutchlow	11→5	+4.3
Andrea Dovizioso	4→2	+2.8
Alex Rins	6→4	+2.0
Pol Espargaro	5→11	−5.6
Sylvain Guintoli	15→20	−8.2
Johann Zarco	3→14	−9.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	86%	+0.80%	+0.098	1	2	10.7
Medium	14%	+0.57%	+0.129	0	1	9.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.3 °C

Air

max 22.9 °C

45%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 02.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.919	—	17	311.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:56.948	+0.029	18	310.6	Medium / Medium	1:58.036	—	10	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:56.982	+0.063	18	303.6	Medium / Hard	1:58.050	+0.01%	6	Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.018	+0.099	17	304.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Sylvain Guintoli	01:57.371	+0.452	16	304.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:57.385	+0.466	15	310.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.726	+0.807	16	306.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.763	+0.844	17	302.6	Medium / Medium	1:58.729	+0.59%	5	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:57.809	+0.890	18	306.9	Soft / Medium	1:58.454	+0.35%	6	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:57.827	+0.908	18	304.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Pol Espargaro	01:57.834	+0.915	14	308.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.950	+1.031	14	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:59.904	+1.58%	6	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.961	+1.042	17	308.0	Medium / Medium	1:58.222	+0.16%	5	Medium
14	Tito Rabat	01:58.029	+1.110	17	306.9	Medium / Soft	1:58.861	+0.70%	5	Medium
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:58.033	+1.114	16	308.7	Medium / Medium	1:58.912	+0.74%	5	Medium
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.052	+1.133	14	309.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.101	+1.182	16	306.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.246	+1.327	19	303.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Karel Abraham	01:58.287	+1.368	16	307.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Andrea Iannone	01:58.371	+1.452	16	304.9	Medium / Medium	1:59.204	+0.99%	5	Medium
21	Joan Mir	01:58.500	+1.581	15	303.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:58.968	+2.049	17	308.9	Medium / Medium	1:59.329	+1.10%	5	Medium
23	Johann Zarco	01:59.028	+2.109	16	302.3	Soft / Medium	2:00.327	+1.94%	5	Medium

FP2 · 02.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.802	—	18	304.9	Medium / Soft	1:57.848	+0.33%	6	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	01:55.825	+0.023	18	311.3	Medium / Soft	1:58.610	+0.98%	4	Hard
3	Jack Miller	01:56.071	+0.269	17	309.5	Soft / Soft	1:58.201	+0.63%	8	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.071	+0.269	17	312.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:56.084	+0.282	21	304.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.462	—	8	Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:56.225	+0.423	19	309.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.419	+0.617	16	303.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.443	+0.641	16	311.9	Hard / Soft	1:57.852	+0.33%	5	Hard
9	Valentino Rossi	01:56.527	+0.725	16	302.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.593	+0.791	17	309.9	Medium / Soft	1:58.597	+0.97%	5	Hard
11	Joan Mir	01:56.620	+0.818	15	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.662	+0.860	14	305.5	Medium / Soft	1:58.574	+0.95%	5	Hard
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.732	+0.930	17	306.2	Medium / Soft	1:58.746	+1.09%	4	Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	01:56.876	+1.074	18	308.4	Medium / Soft	1:58.377	+0.78%	5	Hard
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.958	+1.156	13	308.2	Medium / Soft	1:58.515	+0.90%	4	Hard
16	Tito Rabat	01:57.057	+1.255	18	308.0	Medium / Soft	1:58.582	+0.95%	5	Hard
17	Sylvain Guintoli	01:57.098	+1.296	15	304.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Andrea Iannone	01:57.256	+1.454	16	306.9	Medium / Soft	1:59.056	+1.36%	4	Medium
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.484	+1.682	17	307.2	Medium / Soft	1:59.084	+1.38%	5	Medium
20	Johann Zarco	01:57.496	+1.694	16	305.6	Medium / Soft	1:58.214	+0.64%	4	Soft
21	Karel Abraham	01:57.562	+1.760	16	309.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Pol Espargaro	01:57.792	+1.990	14	311.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
23	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.893	+2.091	14	306.6	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 03.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:04.279	—	9	299.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:04.746	—	7	Wet-Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	02:04.867	+0.588	14	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:05.957	+0.97%	8	Wet-Soft
3	Sylvain Guintoli	02:05.173	+0.894	7	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.618	+2.30%	5	Wet-Soft
4	Danilo Petrucci	02:05.410	+1.131	9	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:10.559	+4.66%	6	Wet-Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	02:05.731	+1.452	17	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.720	+2.38%	12	Wet-Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	02:06.219	+1.940	17	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.084	+1.87%	8	Wet-Soft
7	Joan Mir	02:06.328	+2.049	15	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.581	+2.27%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	02:06.335	+2.056	11	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.190	+1.96%	5	Wet-Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	02:06.345	+2.066	13	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:09.287	+3.64%	6	Wet-Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	02:06.381	+2.102	13	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:08.642	+3.12%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	02:06.527	+2.248	14	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:09.928	+4.15%	6	Wet-Soft
12	Jack Miller	02:06.539	+2.260	7	301.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Andrea Dovizioso	02:06.599	+2.320	15	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.924	+2.55%	7	Wet-Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	02:06.616	+2.337	13	291.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.438	+2.16%	7	Wet-Soft
15	Alex Rins	02:06.779	+2.500	14	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:07.287	+2.04%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Johann Zarco	02:07.031	+2.752	16	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:08.080	+2.67%	10	Wet-Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	02:07.114	+2.835	10	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:11.292	+5.25%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Karel Abraham	02:07.383	+3.104	14	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	02:07.414	+3.135	16	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:08.587	+3.08%	12	Wet-Soft
20	Stefan Bradl	02:07.872	+3.593	12	285.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:09.526	+3.83%	6	Wet-Soft
21	Francesco Bagnaia	02:07.944	+3.665	12	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:09.078	+3.47%	6	Wet-Soft
22	Tito Rabat	02:08.199	+3.920	16	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:09.980	+4.20%	6	Wet-Soft
23	Hafizh Syahrin	02:08.325	+4.046	15	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

FP4 · 03.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:03.779	—	12	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	02:04.482	+0.703	13	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:05.884	+0.84%	8	Wet-Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.497	+0.718	11	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:06.160	+1.06%	5	Wet-Medium
4	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.778	+0.999	10	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:04.834	—	4	Wet-Soft
5	Jack Miller	02:04.832	+1.053	10	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	02:04.970	+1.191	13	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:06.026	+0.96%	11	Wet-Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	02:05.043	+1.264	11	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.091	+1.312	12	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	02:05.104	+1.325	14	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:06.219	+1.11%	12	Wet-Soft
10	Alex Rins	02:05.112	+1.333	12	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:07.430	+2.08%	4	Wet-Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	02:05.171	+1.392	11	300.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:06.787	+1.56%	9	Wet-Soft
12	Cal Crutchlow	02:05.335	+1.556	11	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Andrea Iannone	02:05.367	+1.588	12	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:06.687	+1.48%	4	Wet-Soft
14	Joan Mir	02:05.494	+1.715	11	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Sylvain Guintoli	02:05.529	+1.750	8	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:06.337	+1.20%	6	Wet-Soft
16	Stefan Bradl	02:05.737	+1.958	12	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:09.508	+3.74%	5	Wet-Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	02:06.336	+2.557	12	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:07.782	+2.36%	6	Wet-Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	02:07.020	+3.241	12	292.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:08.326	+2.80%	4	Wet-Soft
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:07.050	+3.271	11	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	02:07.115	+3.336	13	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:08.265	+2.75%	9	Wet-Soft
21	Francesco Bagnaia	02:07.232	+3.453	10	288.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:08.637	+3.05%	8	Wet-Soft
22	Karel Abraham	02:07.720	+3.941	8	290.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
23	Tito Rabat	02:07.742	+3.963	13	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:09.378	+3.64%	9	Wet-Soft

Q1 · 03.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	02:05.033	—	7	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	02:05.053	+0.020	7	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Takaaki Nakagami	02:05.265	+0.232	7	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	02:05.286	+0.253	7	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:06.934	+0.76%	5	Wet-Medium
5	Sylvain Guintoli	02:05.551	+0.518	7	297.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:05.982	—	5	Wet-Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.763	+0.730	7	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:06.403	+0.33%	4	Wet-Medium
7	Stefan Bradl	02:05.974	+0.941	7	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.284	+1.251	6	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Joan Mir	02:06.554	+1.521	7	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Karel Abraham	02:06.898	+1.865	7	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
11	Hafizh Syahrin	02:07.155	+2.122	6	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Tito Rabat	02:07.315	+2.282	7	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Andrea Iannone	02:07.923	+2.890	6	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q2 · 03.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	02:02.753	—	7	304.2	Medium / Soft
2	Jack Miller	02:05.277	+2.524	7	303.3	Soft / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	02:05.351	+2.598	6	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.590	+2.837	6	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	02:05.710	+2.957	6	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6	Alex Rins	02:06.172	+3.419	6	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7	Valentino Rossi	02:06.233	+3.480	7	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	02:06.457	+3.704	7	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	02:06.626	+3.873	6	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	02:06.648	+3.895	7	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	02:07.123	+4.370	7	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	02:09.404	+6.651	5	284.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium

Warm Up · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.052	—	10	314.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:57.089	+0.037	10	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:57.870	+0.27%	8	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:57.119	+0.067	10	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:57.851	+0.25%	7	Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.312	+0.260	10	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:57.733	+0.15%	6	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.385	+0.333	11	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:57.559	—	8	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:57.401	+0.349	10	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.785	+0.19%	7	Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:57.428	+0.376	10	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.872	+0.27%	8	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.488	+0.436	10	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:57.936	+0.32%	5	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:57.490	+0.438	9	305.9	Medium / Medium	1:57.739	+0.15%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.504	+0.452	10	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:59.630	+1.76%	8	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.528	+0.476	10	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Tito Rabat	01:57.531	+0.479	10	308.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.555	+0.503	10	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:58.026	+0.40%	6	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	01:57.582	+0.530	10	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:58.830	+1.08%	8	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.631	+0.579	10	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:57.889	+0.28%	7	Soft
16	Stefan Bradl	01:57.750	+0.698	10	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Karel Abraham	01:57.774	+0.722	10	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.834	+0.782	9	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:58.061	+0.43%	5	Soft
19	Valentino Rossi	01:57.883	+0.831	10	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:58.232	+0.57%	5	Soft
20	Sylvain Guintoli	01:58.176	+1.124	8	304.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Andrea Iannone	01:58.183	+1.131	9	305.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:58.904	+1.852	6	301.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Johann Zarco	01:59.215	+2.163	10	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:59.574	+1.71%	8	Soft

Race · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	39:24.430	25	20	Hard / Soft	1:57.677	—	18	Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+2.452	20	20	Medium / Medium	1:57.762	+0.07%	18	Medium
3	Jack Miller	+3.497	16	20	Hard / Soft	1:58.068	+0.33%	18	Soft
4	Alex Rins	+4.858	13	20	Medium / Soft	1:57.697	+0.02%	17	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	+6.007	11	20	Hard / Soft	1:57.953	+0.24%	18	Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	+9.083	10	20	Medium / Soft	1:58.146	+0.40%	18	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+12.092	9	20	Medium / Soft	1:58.353	+0.57%	18	Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	+13.976	8	20	Medium / Medium	1:58.350	+0.57%	18	Medium
9	Takaaki Nakagami	+15.724	7	20	Hard / Soft	1:58.487	+0.69%	18	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	+16.558	6	20	Medium / Soft	1:58.514	+0.71%	18	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+18.234	5	20	Medium / Soft	1:58.727	+0.89%	18	Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	+19.738	4	20	Medium / Soft	1:58.754	+0.92%	18	Soft
13	Miguel Oliveira	+22.539	3	20	Medium / Soft	1:58.872	+1.02%	18	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	+30.459	2	20	Medium / Soft	1:59.368	+1.44%	18	Soft
15	Stefan Bradl	+30.500	1	20	Medium / Soft	1:59.231	+1.32%	18	Soft
16	Tito Rabat	+30.755	0	20	Medium / Soft	1:59.312	+1.39%	18	Soft
17	Andrea Iannone	+37.170	0	20	Medium / Soft	1:59.586	+1.62%	18	Soft
18	Aleix Espargaro	+37.343	0	20	Medium / Medium	1:59.804	+1.81%	18	Medium
19	Karel Abraham	+44.296	0	20	Medium / Soft	1:59.752	+1.76%	18	Soft
20	Sylvain Guintoli	+48.938	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.386	+2.30%	18	Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Hafizh Syahrin		0	6	Hard / Soft	1:58.444	+0.65%	4	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	58%	9
2	Takaaki Nakagami	44%	3
3	Miguel Oliveira	34%	6
4	Stefan Bradl	19%	7
5	Aleix Espargaro	16%	8
6	Tito Rabat	9%	12
7	Sylvain Guintoli	10%	5
8	Andrea Iannone	3%	13
9	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	11
10	Johann Zarco	3%	1 ✓
11	Karel Abraham	2%	10
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	2 ✓
13	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	4

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	70%	91%	10
2	Marc Marquez	24%	51%	84%	1
3	Jack Miller	16%	48%	82%	2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	34%	69%	4
5	Maverick Viñales	3%	28%	56%	9
6	Alex Rins	7%	22%	55%	6
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	12%	45%	12
8	Cal Crutchlow	3%	13%	37%	11
9	Valentino Rossi	1%	8%	29%	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	3%	8%	22%	8
11	Johann Zarco	1%	7%	21%	3
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	11%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	61%	74%	84%	14%	1
Jack Miller	2	17%	44%	58%	70%	27%	3
Johann Zarco	3	16%	47%	68%	85%	12%	14
Andrea Dovizioso	4	12%	40%	62%	84%	13%	2
Pol Espargaro	5	7%	27%	48%	74%	21%	11
Alex Rins	6	5%	20%	40%	71%	22%	4
Valentino Rossi	7	5%	19%	40%	80%	10%	6
Danilo Petrucci	8	2%	12%	28%	67%	20%	8
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	10%	24%	70%	13%	10
Fabio Quartararo	10	1%	6%	16%	58%	21%	7
Cal Crutchlow	11	1%	4%	11%	46%	28%	5
Franco Morbidelli	12	0%	3%	9%	48%	17%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	13	0%	2%	7%	41%	16%	9
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	1%	3%	22%	41%	12
Sylvain Guintoli	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	15%	20
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	8%	13
Stefan Bradl	17	0%	1%	2%	15%	21%	15
Aleix Espargaro	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	25%	18
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	21%	—
Karel Abraham	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	32%	19
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	—
Tito Rabat	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	18%	16
Andrea Iannone	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,401 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Raul Fernandez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Raul Fernandez +0.24%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.42%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pol Espargaro +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.05%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Franco Morbidelli +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.39%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.30%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.10%	Cal Crutchlow +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Andrea Iannone +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez	Daniel Pedrosa +0.44%	Valentino Rossi +0.45%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Maverick Viñales +0.48%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

81/100

Position index

40%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 44% and 100%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	185	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	127	−58
3	Danilo Petrucci	121	−64
4	Alex Rins	101	−84
5	Maverick Viñales	85	−100
6	Valentino Rossi	80	−105

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/21

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.178 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Andrea Iannone (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Lorenzo	1:57.190	—	+1.158	Hard	19
Marc Marquez	1:57.272	+0.082	+0.210	Hard	19
Tito Rabat	1:57.291	+0.101	+0.229	Hard	6
Cal Crutchlow	1:57.296	+0.106	+0.729	Hard	18
Andrea Dovizioso	1:57.306	+0.116	+0.226	Hard	19
Valentino Rossi	1:57.325	+0.135	+0.508	Hard	19
Danilo Petrucci	1:57.358	+0.168	+0.574	Hard	19
Johann Zarco	1:57.415	+0.225	+0.344	Soft	18
Andrea Iannone	1:57.462	+0.272	+0.224	Hard	18
Daniel Pedrosa	1:57.515	+0.325	+0.089	Hard	19

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2020Brad BinderKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda
2015Jorge LorenzoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/20	15%
2025	3/21	14%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	3/23	13%
2018	5/25	20%
2017	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	87%	+0.43%	−0.003	1	3	10.8
Soft	13%	+0.28%	−0.026	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.