Round 8 of 19 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2019

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

28.06 – 30.06.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	40:55.415	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.854	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+9.738	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+14.147	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+14.467	11
6	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+14.794	10
7	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+18.361	9
8	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+24.268	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+26.496	7
10	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+26.997	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+28.732	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+34.095	4
13	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+34.181	3
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+34.249	2
15	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+34.494	1
16	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+48.357	0
17	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 28%	Maverick Viñales · 22% · from P2	0.86 / 0.86	2.1 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:34.048	—	+0.292	Hard	22
Marc Marquez	1:34.112	+0.064	+0.210	Soft	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:34.429	+0.381	+0.275	Hard	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:34.472	+0.424	+0.574	Hard	24
Cal Crutchlow	1:34.487	+0.439	+0.729	Hard	22
Joan Mir	1:34.648	+0.600	+0.562	Soft	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.784	+0.736	+0.512	Hard	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:34.814	+0.766	+0.226	Hard	24
Pol Espargaro	1:35.101	+1.053	+0.406	Hard	24
Andrea Iannone	1:35.130	+1.082	+0.224	Hard	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:35.134	+1.086	+0.221	Hard	24
Johann Zarco	1:35.165	+1.117	+0.344	Hard	13
Jack Miller	1:35.205	+1.157	+0.105	Hard	21
Hafizh Syahrin	1:35.274	+1.226	+0.491	Hard	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:35.296	+1.248	+0.193	Hard	24
Aleix Espargaro	1:35.369	+1.321	+0.209	Soft	23
Tito Rabat	1:35.713	+1.665	+0.229	Hard	23
Karel Abraham	1:35.925	+1.877	—	Soft	17

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

11/26

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

4.854 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Iannone, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Miguel Oliveira (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:28		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:04:42	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:45	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:46	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:26:16	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:33:10	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #88

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Alex Rins (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Dovizioso	11	6	+5
Joan Mir	5	2	+3
Andrea Iannone	19	17	+2
Cal Crutchlow	6	10	−4
Karel Abraham	16	19	−3
Fabio Quartararo	1	3	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	11→4	+5.3
Andrea Iannone	19→10	+4.4
Franco Morbidelli	9→5	+3.0
Joan Mir	5→8	−2.6
Francesco Bagnaia	13→14	−3.5
Karel Abraham	16→17	−4.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	71%	+1.12%	+0.051	1	2	8.8
Soft	24%	+1.02%	+0.024	0	1	9.8
Medium	5%	+0.77%	—	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.3 °C

Air

max 24.4 °C

55%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

20 km/h

Wind

gusts 54 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:33.909	—	22	308.2	Soft / Medium	1:35.360	+0.73%	13	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:33.986	+0.077	23	311.0	Soft / Medium	1:35.008	+0.36%	16	Medium
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.169	+0.260	16	315.6	Soft / Medium	1:35.648	+1.03%	6	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:34.423	+0.514	20	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:34.671	—	5	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.441	+0.532	17	309.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:34.522	+0.613	21	312.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.468	+0.84%	12	Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.589	+0.680	20	314.5	Soft / Medium	1:35.363	+0.73%	9	Medium
8	Karel Abraham	01:34.596	+0.687	17	308.8	Soft / Soft	1:37.284	+2.76%	5	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	01:34.659	+0.750	18	314.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:34.674	+0.765	19	315.3	Soft / Medium	1:35.676	+1.06%	10	Medium
11	Andrea Iannone	01:34.698	+0.789	22	310.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.521	+0.90%	13	Medium
12	Valentino Rossi	01:34.746	+0.837	19	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:36.509	+1.94%	13	Medium
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.756	+0.847	20	314.9	Soft / Medium	1:36.901	+2.36%	5	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.921	+1.012	17	311.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.971	+1.37%	11	Medium
15	Tito Rabat	01:34.988	+1.079	21	310.7	Soft / Medium	1:36.574	+2.01%	11	Medium
16	Joan Mir	01:35.134	+1.225	21	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:35.892	+1.29%	12	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:35.500	+1.591	22	304.9	Soft / Medium	1:36.064	+1.47%	16	Medium
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.661	+1.752	16	312.0	Soft / Medium	1:36.146	+1.56%	10	Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:35.759	+1.850	17	306.4	Soft / Medium	1:36.264	+1.68%	5	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:35.769	+1.860	20	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:36.086	+1.50%	11	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:36.168	+2.259	19	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:37.564	+3.06%	7	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:36.321	+2.412	19	309.1	Soft / Medium	1:36.573	+2.01%	5	Medium

FP2 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:32.638	—	23	311.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.147	+0.14%	11	Hard
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.818	+0.180	20	306.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.414	+0.42%	12	Medium
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.952	+0.314	20	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.020	—	10	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.223	+0.585	18	320.8	Medium / Hard	1:34.325	+0.32%	9	Hard
5	Alex Rins	01:33.305	+0.667	21	315.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.807	+1.90%	5	Hard
6	Andrea Iannone	01:33.355	+0.717	15	309.9	Medium / Hard	1:34.291	+0.29%	5	Hard
7	Marc Marquez	01:33.413	+0.775	21	315.1	Medium / Medium	1:34.176	+0.17%	12	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:33.415	+0.777	21	313.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.602	+0.62%	7	Hard
9	Valentino Rossi	01:33.517	+0.879	23	310.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.852	+0.89%	10	Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.727	+1.089	20	316.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.915	+0.95%	10	Hard
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.815	+1.177	18	307.9	Medium / Soft	1:35.260	+1.32%	6	Hard
12	Karel Abraham	01:33.854	+1.216	17	310.2	Soft / Soft	1:36.062	+2.17%	4	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:33.874	+1.236	20	313.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.299	+0.30%	11	Hard
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.963	+1.325	23	307.4	Medium / Hard	1:35.017	+1.06%	13	Hard
15	Pol Espargaro	01:33.971	+1.333	18	314.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.040	+1.402	21	312.7	Soft / Soft	1:35.552	+1.63%	11	Hard
17	Johann Zarco	01:34.194	+1.556	14	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Tito Rabat	01:34.370	+1.732	22	311.7	Soft / Soft	1:35.386	+1.45%	10	Hard
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.537	+1.899	16	312.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.411	+1.48%	5	Hard
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.628	+1.990	19	306.4	Medium / Soft	1:35.472	+1.54%	5	Medium
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.250	+2.612	17	308.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 29.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.471	—	19	305.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.642	+0.01%	8	Medium
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.580	+0.109	18	311.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.162	+0.57%	5	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:32.688	+0.217	23	313.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.012	+0.41%	13	Medium
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.890	+0.419	21	310.1	Medium / Soft	1:34.367	+0.78%	5	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.910	+0.439	22	309.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.633	—	7	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.913	+0.442	23	306.9	missing / missing	1:34.432	+0.85%	9	missing
7	Jack Miller	01:32.918	+0.447	19	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.922	+0.451	22	315.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.928	+0.32%	5	Hard
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.956	+0.485	20	313.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.961	+1.42%	5	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:33.068	+0.597	21	309.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.578	+1.01%	5	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:33.138	+0.667	20	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.666	+1.10%	4	Soft
12	Andrea Iannone	01:33.205	+0.734	21	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.806	+0.19%	5	Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.228	+0.757	19	310.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.623	+1.06%	5	Hard
14	Valentino Rossi	01:33.279	+0.808	22	305.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.635	+1.07%	9	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.636	+1.165	18	310.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.411	+0.83%	6	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	01:33.868	+1.397	18	311.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.930	+2.45%	5	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.962	+1.491	21	306.6	Medium / Soft	1:35.507	+2.00%	5	Hard
18	Tito Rabat	01:34.257	+1.786	20	310.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.780	+1.23%	5	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	01:34.258	+1.787	17	307.4	missing / missing	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.326	+1.855	21	307.8	Medium / Soft	1:35.436	+1.93%	9	Hard
21	Karel Abraham	01:35.136	+2.665	16	307.0	Soft / Medium	1:38.339	+5.03%	5	Medium

FP4 · 29.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.952	—	17	305.2	Medium / Hard	1:34.011	+0.29%	13	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:33.093	+0.141	18	309.3	Medium / Hard	1:34.127	+0.41%	12	Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:33.262	+0.310	15	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.833	+0.10%	5	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:33.268	+0.316	16	312.7	Medium / Hard	1:33.743	—	12	Hard
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.801	+0.849	15	315.0	Medium / Hard	1:34.478	+0.78%	10	Hard
6	Joan Mir	01:33.849	+0.897	15	309.1	Hard / Soft	1:34.386	+0.69%	7	Hard
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.981	+1.029	15	311.5	Medium / Hard	1:34.447	+0.75%	10	Hard
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.069	+1.117	16	308.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.725	+1.05%	5	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	01:34.133	+1.181	14	310.9	Medium / Hard	1:34.681	+1.00%	5	Hard
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.195	+1.243	11	305.1	Soft / Hard	—			—
11	Jack Miller	01:34.209	+1.257	15	313.5	Medium / Hard	1:34.498	+0.81%	5	Hard
12	Andrea Iannone	01:34.233	+1.281	13	306.9	Medium / missing	—			—
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:34.240	+1.288	12	307.7	Medium / Hard	1:35.130	+1.48%	5	Hard
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.347	+1.395	11	308.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:34.370	+1.418	13	307.4	missing / missing	1:35.256	+1.61%	5	missing
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.465	+1.513	15	304.8	Medium / Hard	1:34.933	+1.27%	5	Hard
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.547	+1.595	16	313.6	Hard / Medium	1:34.709	+1.03%	7	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	01:34.620	+1.668	16	303.8	Medium / Hard	1:35.038	+1.38%	11	Hard
19	Karel Abraham	01:34.838	+1.886	12	306.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.304	+2.352	13	306.9	Medium / Hard	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:35.648	+2.696	12	309.3	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Rins	01:32.710	—	7	309.2	Soft / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:33.170	+0.460	7	310.6	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.221	+0.511	8	309.1	Soft / Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:33.466	+0.756	7	305.9	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.547	+0.837	7	308.6	Medium / Soft
6	Karel Abraham	01:33.583	+0.873	7	309.7	Soft / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.706	+0.996	7	306.4	Medium / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:33.776	+1.066	7	306.6	Medium / Soft
9	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.869	+1.159	7	307.9	Medium / Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	01:33.960	+1.250	7	304.9	Soft / Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:34.580	+1.870	8	307.3	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.017	—	7	305.0	Soft / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.157	+0.140	8	309.0	Soft / Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:32.458	+0.441	6	309.3	Soft / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:32.731	+0.714	7	311.9	Medium / Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:33.085	+1.068	8	309.1	Soft / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.228	+1.211	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.282	+1.265	7	310.0	Medium / Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.295	+1.278	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.314	+1.297	8	305.3	Soft / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:33.323	+1.306	8	314.5	Soft / Soft
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.692	+1.675	7	314.1	Medium / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:33.762	+1.745	3	310.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 30.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:33.677	—	13	304.0	Medium / Hard	1:34.545	—	9	Hard
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.022	+0.345	13	308.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.854	+0.33%	9	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:34.042	+0.365	8	296.1	Medium / Hard	1:34.977	+0.46%	5	Hard
4	Marc Marquez	01:34.227	+0.550	12	304.8	Medium / Soft	1:35.326	+0.83%	5	Hard
5	Alex Rins	01:34.254	+0.577	12	304.5	Hard / Soft	1:34.598	+0.06%	6	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:34.332	+0.655	13	305.1	Medium / Hard	1:35.346	+0.85%	9	Hard
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.415	+0.738	11	301.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.417	+0.740	10	304.0	Medium / Hard	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:34.424	+0.747	12	300.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.935	+0.41%	9	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.450	+0.773	13	297.8	missing / missing	1:34.857	+0.33%	11	missing
11	Jack Miller	01:34.475	+0.798	12	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:36.956	+2.55%	7	Medium
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.714	+1.037	11	306.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	01:34.793	+1.116	13	299.0	Soft / Soft	1:36.482	+2.05%	10	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:34.978	+1.301	11	304.3	Soft / Hard	1:36.287	+1.84%	6	Soft
15	Andrea Iannone	01:35.013	+1.336	11	297.8	Medium / Hard	1:39.018	+4.73%	6	Hard
16	Johann Zarco	01:35.094	+1.417	9	301.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:35.120	+1.443	12	299.6	Medium / Hard	1:35.686	+1.21%	8	Hard
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:35.210	+1.533	8	302.3	Medium / Soft	1:37.288	+2.90%	4	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:35.272	+1.595	12	303.0	Medium / Hard	1:36.148	+1.70%	8	Hard
20	Karel Abraham	01:35.405	+1.728	11	302.0	Medium / Soft	1:37.920	+3.57%	6	Soft
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.926	+2.249	10	298.5	Medium / Hard	1:37.981	+3.63%	5	Hard

Race · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	40:55.415	25	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.048	—	22	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	+4.854	20	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.112	+0.07%	23	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	+9.738	16	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.429	+0.41%	23	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+14.147	13	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.814	+0.81%	24	Hard
5	Franco Morbidelli	+14.467	11	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.784	+0.78%	23	Hard
6	Danilo Petrucci	+14.794	10	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.472	+0.45%	24	Hard
7	Cal Crutchlow	+18.361	9	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.487	+0.47%	22	Hard
8	Joan Mir	+24.268	8	26	Hard / Soft	1:34.648	+0.64%	22	Soft
9	Jack Miller	+26.496	7	26	Soft / Hard	1:35.205	+1.23%	21	Hard
10	Andrea Iannone	+26.997	6	26	Soft / Hard	1:35.130	+1.15%	22	Hard
11	Pol Espargaro	+28.732	5	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.101	+1.12%	24	Hard
12	Aleix Espargaro	+34.095	4	26	Medium / Soft	1:35.369	+1.41%	23	Soft
13	Miguel Oliveira	+34.181	3	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.296	+1.33%	24	Hard
14	Francesco Bagnaia	+34.249	2	26	Soft / Hard	1:35.134	+1.16%	24	Hard
15	Hafizh Syahrin	+34.494	1	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.274	+1.30%	24	Hard
16	Tito Rabat	+48.357	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.713	+1.77%	23	Hard
17	Karel Abraham	+0.000	0	25	Medium / Soft	1:35.925	+2.00%	17	Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	16	Medium / Hard	1:35.165	+1.19%	13	Hard
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	4	Medium / Hard	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:33.729*	—	+0.292	Medium	3
Danilo Petrucci	1:33.977	+0.248	+0.574	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:34.176	+0.447	+0.210	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	1:34.288	+0.559	+0.275	Medium	15
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.432*	+0.703	+0.512	Medium	4
Cal Crutchlow	1:34.687	+0.958	+0.729	Medium	5
Miguel Oliveira	1:35.472	+1.743	+0.193	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	57%	1 ✓
2	Andrea Iannone	45%	10
3	Francesco Bagnaia	34%	3
4	Valentino Rossi	19%	4
5	Aleix Espargaro	17%	5
6	Karel Abraham	8%	6
7	Pol Espargaro	10%	2 ✓
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	7
9	Johann Zarco	3%	8
10	Tito Rabat	3%	11
11	Hafizh Syahrin	2%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	69%	90%	1
2	Danilo Petrucci	25%	52%	84%	7
3	Maverick Viñales	16%	47%	82%	2
4	Marc Marquez	4%	34%	68%	4
5	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	28%	57%	8
6	Franco Morbidelli	7%	22%	56%	9
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	45%	10
8	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	13%	38%	11
9	Cal Crutchlow	1%	8%	28%	6
10	Joan Mir	3%	8%	21%	5
11	Alex Rins	1%	6%	20%	3
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Miguel Oliveira	17	20	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #88

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	28%	57%	72%	82%	17%	3
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	55%	72%	84%	13%	1
Alex Rins	3	14%	42%	62%	79%	19%	—
Marc Marquez	4	12%	39%	60%	82%	14%	2
Joan Mir	5	7%	27%	47%	71%	24%	8
Cal Crutchlow	6	5%	21%	40%	69%	28%	7
Danilo Petrucci	7	4%	17%	36%	71%	21%	6
Takaaki Nakagami	8	3%	14%	32%	74%	13%	—
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	9%	22%	67%	18%	5
Jack Miller	10	1%	5%	14%	51%	28%	9
Andrea Dovizioso	11	1%	5%	15%	59%	13%	4
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	3%	9%	46%	21%	11
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	2%	5%	26%	47%	14
Valentino Rossi	14	0%	2%	5%	39%	9%	—
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	25%	12
Karel Abraham	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	32%	17
Johann Zarco	17	0%	1%	2%	21%	9%	—
Hafizh Syahrin	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	20%	15
Andrea Iannone	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	27%	10
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	1%	8%	9%	13
Tito Rabat	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	140	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	103	−37
3	Alex Rins	101	−39
4	Danilo Petrucci	98	−42
5	Valentino Rossi	72	−68
6	Jack Miller	53	−87

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

5 leaders

8/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.269 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Scott Redding (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:34.834	—	+0.210	Soft	24
Alex Rins	1:34.860	+0.026	+0.217	Hard	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:34.866	+0.032	+0.729	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:34.893	+0.059	+0.292	Soft	23
Valentino Rossi	1:34.976	+0.142	+0.508	Soft	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:35.020	+0.186	+0.226	Hard	24
Andrea Iannone	1:35.078	+0.244	+0.224	Hard	22
Alvaro Bautista	1:35.083	+0.249	+0.086	Soft	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:35.091	+0.257	+1.158	Hard	22
Johann Zarco	1:35.095	+0.261	+0.344	Hard	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	57%	+0.36%	+0.030	0	1	11.2
Soft	44%	+0.42%	+0.024	1	2	9.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.