Round 5 of 19 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2019

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

17.05 – 19.05.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:53.647	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+1.984	20
3	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+2.142	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+2.940	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+3.053	11
6	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.935	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+7.187	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+8.439	8
9	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+9.853	7
10	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+13.709	6
11	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.003	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+29.512	4
13	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+33.061	3
14	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+35.481	2
15	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+36.044	1
16	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.000	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Excluded	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 28% ✓	Marc Marquez · 28% · from P1	0.84 / 0.84	2.1 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:32.817	—	+0.210	Soft	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.894	+0.077	+0.226	Soft	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.918	+0.101	+0.574	Soft	25
Valentino Rossi	1:32.935	+0.118	+0.508	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.954	+0.137	+0.105	Soft	24
Pol Espargaro	1:33.006	+0.189	+0.406	Soft	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.024	+0.207	+0.275	Soft	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.051	+0.234	+0.512	Soft	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:33.128	+0.311	+0.729	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:33.256	+0.439	+0.217	Soft	25
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.352	+0.535	+1.158	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.524	+0.707	+0.359	Soft	16
Maverick Viñales	1:33.772	+0.955	+0.292	Soft	4
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.819	+1.002	+0.209	Soft	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.983	+1.166	+0.221	Soft	4
Johann Zarco	1:34.062	+1.245	+0.344	Soft	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:34.078	+1.261	+0.193	Soft	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:34.082	+1.265	+0.491	Soft	25
Joan Mir	1:34.176	+1.359	+0.562	Soft	23
Andrea Iannone	1:34.382	+1.565	+0.224	Soft	5

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.984 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Hafizh Syahrin vs Miguel Oliveira (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:58:32	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out in warmup lap
Race	13:58:32	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out in warmup lap
Race	14:01:35	Joan Mir	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:02:30	Karel Abraham	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:06:02	Tito Rabat	Retired	Retired
Race	14:07:49		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:09:46		Red flag	Karel ABRAHAM black flag
Race	14:11:30	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:30	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:08	Andrea Iannone	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:30:08	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Pol Espargaro	12	6	+6
Andrea Iannone	22	18	+4
Cal Crutchlow	15	11	+4
Fabio Quartararo	10	15	−5
Andrea Dovizioso	4	7	−3
Takaaki Nakagami	7	10	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	19→10	+4.4
Pol Espargaro	12→6	+3.9
Cal Crutchlow	15→9	+2.8
Miguel Oliveira	16→15	−2.5
Jorge Lorenzo	8→11	−3.7
Aleix Espargaro	9→12	−4.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.58%	−0.013	1	3	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

14.6 °C

Air

max 15.3 °C

72%

Humidity

0.3 mm

Rain

14 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.986	—	21	296.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.664	+0.67%	14	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.113	+0.127	18	307.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.715	+2.87%	5	Medium
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.193	+0.207	20	300.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.811	+0.83%	12	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:32.203	+0.217	21	297.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.042	—	14	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:32.233	+0.247	20	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.844	+0.86%	6	Medium
6	Pol Espargaro	01:32.237	+0.251	19	304.7	Soft / Medium	1:38.029	+5.36%	5	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:32.238	+0.252	19	303.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.414	+0.40%	10	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:32.626	+0.640	22	297.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.352	+1.41%	12	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:32.724	+0.738	19	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.585	+1.66%	6	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:32.760	+0.774	18	298.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.883	+0.90%	12	Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.831	+0.845	20	305.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.435	+1.50%	7	Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.887	+0.901	22	296.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.841	+0.86%	12	Medium
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.982	+0.996	17	297.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.408	+2.54%	6	Medium
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.091	+1.105	18	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.392	+0.38%	10	Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.123	+1.137	21	299.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.683	+1.76%	13	Medium
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.259	+1.273	20	301.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.927	+2.03%	5	Medium
17	Alex Rins	01:33.357	+1.371	22	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.228	+1.28%	11	Medium
18	Tito Rabat	01:34.113	+2.127	20	301.3	Soft / Medium	1:35.763	+2.92%	10	Medium
19	Andrea Iannone	01:34.135	+2.149	19	295.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.229	+2.243	19	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.304	+2.43%	6	Medium
21	Karel Abraham	01:34.481	+2.495	18	298.9	Soft / Medium	1:34.690	+1.77%	5	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.479	+3.493	19	298.3	Soft / Medium	1:36.244	+3.44%	6	Medium

FP2 · 17.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.428	—	21	299.5	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.618	+0.190	22	303.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.328	—	6	Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.713	+0.285	23	301.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.032	+0.76%	14	Medium
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.716	+0.288	22	306.5	— / —	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.736	+0.308	21	305.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.934	+0.66%	7	Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.899	+0.471	17	301.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.035	+0.77%	5	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:31.923	+0.495	12	305.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.132	+0.704	17	302.9	— / —	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.203	+0.775	20	301.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.239	+0.811	22	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.729	+1.52%	5	Medium
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.270	+0.842	18	308.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.285	+0.857	18	301.9	— / —	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	01:32.320	+0.892	20	299.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.883	+0.60%	7	Medium
14	Joan Mir	01:32.322	+0.894	23	300.9	Medium / Hard	1:33.676	+1.46%	14	Hard
15	Alex Rins	01:32.385	+0.957	22	303.3	— / —	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:32.573	+1.145	15	306.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:32.574	+1.146	19	299.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.360	+1.12%	6	Soft
18	Karel Abraham	01:32.999	+1.571	18	302.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.601	+2.46%	5	Soft
19	Andrea Iannone	01:33.141	+1.713	18	304.1	— / —	—			—
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.401	+1.973	20	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:33.431	+2.003	23	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.051	+1.87%	17	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.903	+2.475	19	301.5	missing / missing	—			—

FP3 · 18.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:42.498	—	21	290.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.263	+0.13%	17	Wet-Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:42.678	+0.180	20	293.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.706	+0.55%	14	Wet-Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:42.951	+0.453	14	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Alex Rins	01:43.438	+0.940	20	296.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.128	—	5	Wet-Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:43.452	+0.954	20	283.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.596	+1.40%	14	Wet-Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.487	+0.989	20	295.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:46.833	+1.62%	8	Wet-Soft
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:43.668	+1.170	18	293.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:48.880	+3.57%	5	Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:43.715	+1.217	15	296.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.843	+0.68%	5	Wet-Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:43.766	+1.268	16	298.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:47.592	+2.34%	6	Wet-Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	01:43.857	+1.359	21	287.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.790	+1.58%	16	Wet-Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:43.942	+1.444	16	290.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.017	+1.519	18	285.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:47.025	+1.80%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.197	+1.699	21	284.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.795	+1.59%	17	Wet-Soft
14	Karel Abraham	01:44.277	+1.779	16	291.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:48.546	+3.25%	9	Wet-Soft
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:44.402	+1.904	18	294.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.447	+2.21%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.403	+1.905	20	286.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.870	+1.66%	7	Wet-Medium
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.989	+2.491	19	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:48.474	+3.18%	10	Wet-Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.191	+2.693	20	283.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.690	+2.44%	16	Wet-Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:45.559	+3.061	25	287.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.898	+2.64%	22	Wet-Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.638	+3.140	13	286.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:46.046	+3.548	18	290.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
22	Andrea Iannone	01:47.711	+5.213	13	288.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP4 · 18.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.777	—	6	296.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.082	+0.305	3	297.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:40.087	+0.310	6	290.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.295	+0.518	8	288.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.332	—	5	Wet-Medium
5	Alex Rins	01:40.409	+0.632	6	299.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.656	+0.879	5	298.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.677	+0.900	6	304.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:40.999	+1.222	4	296.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.145	+1.368	6	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	01:41.230	+1.453	10	290.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.197	+0.85%	6	Wet-Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.444	+1.667	5	297.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.588	+1.811	8	292.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
13	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.632	+1.855	10	295.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.244	+1.89%	8	Wet-Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.965	+2.188	7	292.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.888	+2.52%	4	Wet-Medium
15	Tito Rabat	01:42.103	+2.326	13	298.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.255	+1.90%	6	Wet-Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:42.194	+2.417	8	289.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:42.250	+2.473	7	294.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:42.319	+2.542	6	291.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:42.877	+3.100	8	295.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
20	Andrea Iannone	01:43.665	+3.888	7	292.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Karel Abraham		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 18.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Valentino Rossi	01:37.667	—	6	295.8	Soft / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.262	+1.595	5	291.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.982	+2.315	7	293.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:40.029	+2.362	8	295.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.114	+2.447	8	301.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.385	+2.718	7	292.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7	Karel Abraham	01:40.482	+2.815	8	294.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:40.606	+2.939	8	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:40.706	+3.039	8	295.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
10	Tito Rabat	01:41.351	+3.684	7	292.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.717	+4.050	7	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
12	Andrea Iannone	01:41.786	+4.119	7	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium

Q2 · 18.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.952	—	8	297.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.737	+1.56%	5	Wet-Medium
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.312	+0.360	7	297.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:41.366	+0.414	5	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.552	+0.600	8	301.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
5	Valentino Rossi	01:41.655	+0.703	8	291.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.147	—	5	Wet-Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.681	+0.729	9	289.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.778	+1.60%	6	Wet-Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:42.059	+1.107	6	292.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Jorge Lorenzo	01:42.067	+1.115	8	298.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.450	+1.498	8	296.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:42.509	+1.557	8	289.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:42.555	+1.603	8	292.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.672	+0.51%	5	Wet-Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

Warm Up · 19.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.483	—	13	299.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.168	—	11	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.625	+0.142	12	302.1	Soft / Medium	1:34.113	+1.01%	9	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:32.705	+0.222	12	304.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.845	+0.73%	8	Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.861	+0.378	13	310.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.671	+0.54%	10	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.963	+0.480	10	301.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.884	+0.77%	8	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.008	+0.525	12	310.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.264	+1.18%	9	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.019	+0.536	13	295.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.394	+0.24%	10	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:33.100	+0.617	13	305.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.100	+1.00%	10	Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.125	+0.642	11	306.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	01:33.202	+0.719	12	294.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.831	+1.79%	5	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.414	+0.931	12	298.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.356	+1.28%	8	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:33.422	+0.939	12	299.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.993	+0.89%	9	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.462	+0.979	13	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.214	+1.12%	10	Soft
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.511	+1.028	12	303.9	Soft / Medium	1:34.071	+0.97%	9	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:33.688	+1.205	12	301.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.946	+0.84%	7	Soft
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.692	+1.209	12	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.574	+1.51%	6	Soft
17	Joan Mir	01:33.872	+1.389	5	294.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Karel Abraham	01:33.874	+1.391	13	300.2	Soft / Soft	1:35.179	+2.16%	10	Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.213	+1.730	13	296.1	Soft / Soft	1:34.336	+1.25%	8	Soft
20	Andrea Iannone	01:34.460	+1.977	11	298.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.812	+2.329	12	300.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.364	+2.36%	8	Soft
22	Tito Rabat	01:35.883	+3.400	6	298.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 19.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:53.647	25	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.817	—	25	Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+1.984	20	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.894	+0.08%	25	Soft
3	Danilo Petrucci	+2.142	16	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.918	+0.11%	25	Soft
4	Jack Miller	+2.940	13	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.954	+0.15%	24	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	+3.053	11	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.935	+0.13%	25	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	+5.935	10	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.006	+0.20%	25	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	+7.187	9	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.051	+0.25%	25	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	+8.439	8	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.024	+0.22%	24	Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	+9.853	7	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.128	+0.34%	25	Soft
10	Alex Rins	+13.709	6	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.256	+0.47%	25	Soft
11	Jorge Lorenzo	+15.003	5	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.352	+0.58%	25	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	+29.512	4	27	Soft / Soft	1:33.819	+1.08%	25	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+33.061	3	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.062	+1.34%	25	Soft
14	Hafizh Syahrin	+35.481	2	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.082	+1.36%	25	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	+36.044	1	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.078	+1.36%	25	Soft
16	Joan Mir	+0.000	0	26	Soft / Soft	1:34.176	+1.46%	23	Soft
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	8	Soft / Soft	1:34.382	+1.69%	5	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	6	Soft / Soft	1:33.983	+1.26%	4	Soft
Excluded	Karel Abraham		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	6	Soft / Soft	1:33.772	+1.03%	4	Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	18	Medium / Soft	1:33.524	+0.76%	16	Soft
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	2	Soft / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.812	—	+0.275	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.914*	+0.102	+0.512	Medium	4
Valentino Rossi	1:33.645*	+0.833	+0.508	Medium	4
Tito Rabat	1:33.941*	+1.129	+0.229	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.956*	+1.144	+0.193	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	57%	2 ✓
2	Valentino Rossi	45%	1 ✓
3	Joan Mir	34%	8
4	Johann Zarco	18%	4
5	Cal Crutchlow	17%	5
6	Francesco Bagnaia	8%	3
7	Alex Rins	10%	9
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	6
9	Tito Rabat	3%	10
10	Karel Abraham	3%	7
11	Andrea Iannone	2%	12
12	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	69%	91%	1
2	Andrea Dovizioso	24%	52%	85%	4
3	Danilo Petrucci	15%	47%	82%	2
4	Fabio Quartararo	5%	35%	69%	10
5	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	28%	57%	7
6	Maverick Viñales	7%	22%	56%	11
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	45%	3
8	Franco Morbidelli	3%	14%	37%	6
9	Valentino Rossi	1%	7%	26%	5
10	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	8%	22%	8
11	Aleix Espargaro	1%	6%	20%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	28%	58%	73%	84%	15%	1
Danilo Petrucci	2	20%	47%	63%	76%	21%	3
Jack Miller	3	12%	37%	54%	69%	28%	4
Andrea Dovizioso	4	13%	41%	61%	83%	12%	2
Valentino Rossi	5	9%	32%	55%	86%	8%	5
Franco Morbidelli	6	6%	24%	45%	80%	12%	7
Takaaki Nakagami	7	4%	18%	39%	78%	11%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	8	3%	15%	33%	76%	11%	11
Aleix Espargaro	9	1%	8%	19%	58%	25%	12
Fabio Quartararo	10	1%	6%	16%	57%	21%	8
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	5%	13%	58%	11%	—
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	2%	8%	44%	22%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	2%	5%	31%	31%	—
Johann Zarco	14	0%	2%	6%	37%	9%	13
Cal Crutchlow	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	28%	9
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	11%	15
Karel Abraham	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	31%	—
Joan Mir	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	31%	16
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	20%	10
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	16%	—
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	15%	14
Andrea Iannone	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.46%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.52%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%	Pol Espargaro +0.45%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Augusto Fernandez +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura	Jorge Martin +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Raul Fernandez +0.22%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%	Enea Bastianini +0.33%	Ai Ogura +0.33%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fermin Aldeguer +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Johann Zarco +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.37%	Pedro Acosta +0.46%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%
S2	Johann Zarco	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Alex Rins +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S3	Jack Miller +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Joan Mir +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.68%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Jack Miller +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jack Miller +0.11%	Pol Espargaro +0.28%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Joan Mir +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.10%	Pol Espargaro +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.27%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.48%	Andrea Iannone +0.55%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Andrea Iannone +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.49%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Andrea Iannone +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Valentino Rossi +0.11%	Andrea Iannone +0.16%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	70	—
2	Alex Rins	69	−1
3	Andrea Dovizioso	67	−3
4	Valentino Rossi	61	−9
5	Danilo Petrucci	41	−29
6	Maverick Viñales	30	−40

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.310 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Karel Abraham, from P24 to P17.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Pol Espargaro (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:32.707	—	+0.210	Hard	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.788	+0.081	+0.574	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.918	+0.211	+0.105	Soft	25
Valentino Rossi	1:32.930	+0.223	+0.508	Soft	25
Daniel Pedrosa	1:32.932	+0.225	+0.089	Soft	25
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.113	+0.406	+1.158	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:33.202	+0.495	+0.344	Soft	6
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.498	+0.791	+0.209	Soft	25
Maverick Viñales	1:33.581	+0.874	+0.292	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:33.683	+0.976	+0.217	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	96%	+1.13%	−0.018	0	2	10.0
Hard	4%	0.00%	−0.023	1	1	1.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.