Round 6 of 19 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2019

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

31.05 – 02.06.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	41:33.794	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.043	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+0.338	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.535	13
5	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+6.535	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.481	10
7	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+13.288	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+13.937	8
9	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.533	7
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+17.994	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+20.523	5
12	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+20.544	4
13	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.813	3
14	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+27.298	2
15	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+28.051	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+30.101	0
17	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+41.857	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29%	Danilo Petrucci · 13% · from P3	0.80 / 0.80	2.4 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Dovizioso	1:48.074	—	+0.226	Medium	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:48.090	+0.016	+0.574	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:48.091	+0.017	+0.217	Medium	21
Marc Marquez	1:48.106	+0.032	+0.210	missing	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:48.160	+0.086	+0.221	Medium	8
Jack Miller	1:48.195	+0.121	+0.105	Medium	13
Valentino Rossi	1:48.375	+0.301	+0.508	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:48.407	+0.333	+0.292	Medium	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:48.420	+0.346	+0.359	Medium	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:48.601	+0.527	+0.275	Medium	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:48.667	+0.593	+0.729	Medium	21
Michele Pirro	1:48.713	+0.639	+0.267	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:48.792	+0.718	+0.562	Medium	21
Pol Espargaro	1:48.813	+0.739	+0.406	Medium	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:48.882	+0.808	+0.209	Medium	21
Jorge Lorenzo	1:48.887	+0.813	+1.158	Medium	21
Hafizh Syahrin	1:49.016	+0.942	+0.491	Medium	7
Andrea Iannone	1:49.039	+0.965	+0.224	Medium	21
Karel Abraham	1:49.174	+1.100	—	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:49.287	+1.213	+0.193	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:49.695	+1.621	+0.344	Soft	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

14/23

Laps led by the winner

Danilo Petrucci

0.043 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Jorge Lorenzo (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:35	Tito Rabat	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:03:35	Tito Rabat	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:08:03		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:12:07	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:00	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:28	Hafizh Syahrin	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:22:54	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:46	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Dovizioso	9	2	+7
Joan Mir	20	13	+7
Alex Rins	13	7	+6
Fabio Quartararo	2	9	−7
Karel Abraham	16	22	−6
Franco Morbidelli	4	10	−6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	13→4	+6.5
Andrea Dovizioso	9→3	+5.0
Takaaki Nakagami	10→5	+3.6
Cal Crutchlow	6→8	−2.0
Johann Zarco	19→17	−2.6
Fabio Quartararo	2→10	−6.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	91%	+0.55%	+0.030	1	2	8.9
Hard	5%	+0.32%	—	0	0	—
Soft	5%	+1.50%	+0.179	0	0	17.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.1 °C

Air

max 26.2 °C

41%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 31.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:47.558	—	20	343.1	Medium / Medium	1:49.715	+1.01%	5	Medium
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.751	+0.193	19	348.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Michele Pirro	01:47.804	+0.246	13	341.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.811	+0.253	21	340.6	Medium / Medium	1:49.188	+0.53%	7	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.812	+0.254	10	343.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:47.814	+0.256	16	346.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.925	+0.367	19	338.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:48.001	+0.443	17	342.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.109	+0.551	18	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:48.615	—	5	Medium
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.214	+0.656	18	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:48.229	+0.671	19	350.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Valentino Rossi	01:48.356	+0.798	18	337.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.346	+0.67%	5	Medium
13	Andrea Iannone	01:48.367	+0.809	19	344.4	Medium / Medium	1:49.792	+1.08%	5	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	01:48.392	+0.834	17	336.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.421	+0.863	20	330.3	Medium / Medium	1:49.242	+0.58%	7	Medium
16	Karel Abraham	01:48.427	+0.869	18	342.6	Medium / Soft	1:50.137	+1.40%	5	Medium
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.532	+0.974	18	338.2	Soft / Medium	1:49.882	+1.17%	6	Medium
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.550	+0.992	19	343.8	Soft / Medium	1:48.807	+0.18%	5	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:48.897	+1.339	18	341.3	Medium / Medium	1:52.085	+3.20%	5	Medium
20	Johann Zarco	01:48.960	+1.402	18	341.2	Medium / Medium	1:49.390	+0.71%	5	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:49.216	+1.658	18	341.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.605	+0.91%	5	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.857	+2.299	16	334.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.870	+2.312	17	338.7	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 31.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.732	—	16	340.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.778	+0.046	18	337.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.863	+0.131	19	344.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Pol Espargaro	01:46.966	+0.234	17	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:46.973	+0.241	20	337.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:47.062	+0.330	19	341.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:47.167	+0.435	21	342.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.170	+0.438	17	344.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:47.185	+0.453	15	346.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.268	+0.536	19	332.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.347	+0.615	18	349.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	01:47.419	+0.687	13	340.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Michele Pirro	01:47.421	+0.689	17	349.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.483	+0.751	19	340.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Joan Mir	01:47.579	+0.847	20	341.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.612	+0.880	14	341.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Tito Rabat	01:47.686	+0.954	18	344.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Valentino Rossi	01:47.726	+0.994	19	340.4	Medium / Soft	1:48.596	—	5	Hard
19	Andrea Iannone	01:47.887	+1.155	16	342.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.114	+1.382	17	343.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:48.146	+1.414	15	341.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.496	+1.764	16	335.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.914	+2.182	20	338.1	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 01.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.056	—	18	355.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	01:46.263	+0.207	19	348.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:46.280	+0.224	20	351.5	Medium / Soft	1:47.852	+0.40%	5	Hard
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.456	+0.400	19	340.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:46.478	+0.422	19	352.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.488	+0.432	18	345.2	Medium / Soft	1:47.420	—	5	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:46.509	+0.453	19	347.0	Medium / Soft	1:47.448	+0.03%	4	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.516	+0.460	17	351.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.518	+0.462	20	342.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.713	+0.657	16	347.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.742	+0.686	20	356.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:46.893	+0.837	19	347.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	01:46.900	+0.844	20	348.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Michele Pirro	01:46.955	+0.899	19	351.3	Medium / Soft	1:48.734	+1.22%	5	Soft
15	Tito Rabat	01:47.064	+1.008	16	350.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.160	+1.104	14	351.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Karel Abraham	01:47.179	+1.123	15	347.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Joan Mir	01:47.180	+1.124	20	346.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Johann Zarco	01:47.507	+1.451	17	348.3	Medium / Medium	1:48.195	+0.72%	5	Medium
20	Alex Rins	01:47.642	+1.586	14	344.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Andrea Iannone	01:47.768	+1.712	18	343.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.250	+2.194	17	343.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.101	+3.045	17	342.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 01.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.799	—	15	337.9	Hard / Medium	1:47.529	+0.25%	8	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:46.877	+0.078	15	341.0	Medium / Soft	1:47.437	+0.16%	9	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:46.960	+0.161	13	346.2	Hard / Hard	1:47.262	—	5	Hard
4	Alex Rins	01:47.160	+0.361	12	344.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:47.266	+0.467	12	347.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.279	+0.480	14	351.6	Hard / Hard	1:47.571	+0.29%	5	Hard
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.291	+0.492	14	338.9	Medium / Medium	1:47.941	+0.63%	5	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.294	+0.495	12	346.7	Medium / Soft	1:47.567	+0.28%	5	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.302	+0.503	12	355.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.457	+0.658	14	333.6	Hard / Medium	1:47.902	+0.60%	5	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.464	+0.665	14	346.0	Hard / Medium	1:48.508	+1.16%	5	Medium
12	Valentino Rossi	01:47.607	+0.808	13	339.5	Hard / Medium	1:47.834	+0.53%	4	Medium
13	Michele Pirro	01:47.614	+0.815	9	347.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.817	+1.018	11	339.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Pol Espargaro	01:47.826	+1.027	11	341.6	Hard / Hard	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:47.965	+1.166	13	339.6	Hard / Medium	1:48.462	+1.12%	6	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.023	+1.224	14	341.4	Medium / Medium	1:48.724	+1.36%	5	Medium
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.094	+1.295	15	341.6	Medium / Medium	1:48.303	+0.97%	7	Medium
19	Andrea Iannone	01:48.102	+1.303	14	341.0	Hard / Medium	1:49.856	+2.42%	4	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:48.103	+1.304	14	346.1	Hard / Medium	1:48.375	+1.04%	5	Medium
21	Johann Zarco	01:48.167	+1.368	12	341.1	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.814	+2.015	14	338.5	Hard / Medium	1:50.215	+2.75%	8	Hard
23	Karel Abraham	01:48.979	+2.180	7	338.7	Hard / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 01.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.278	—	7	344.1	Medium / Soft
2	Michele Pirro	01:46.283	+0.005	2	347.7	Medium / Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:46.539	+0.261	5	338.3	Hard / Soft
4	Tito Rabat	01:46.678	+0.400	7	345.2	Medium / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.899	+0.621	6	340.3	Medium / Soft
6	Karel Abraham	01:47.028	+0.750	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.135	+0.857	7	339.9	Soft / Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:47.184	+0.906	6	335.8	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:47.394	+1.116	6	340.1	Hard / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:47.519	+1.241	7	341.8	Hard / Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.222	+1.944	7	338.0	Medium / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.235	+1.957	7	336.8	Medium / Soft
13	Andrea Iannone	01:48.303	+2.025	6	340.1	Medium / Medium

Q2 · 01.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.519	—	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.733	+0.214	7	339.3	Hard / Soft
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:45.881	+0.362	7	346.9	Medium / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.959	+0.440	7	333.7	Hard / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:46.029	+0.510	8	345.6	Medium / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.079	+0.560	7	347.6	Hard / Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:46.181	+0.662	7	339.7	Medium / Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.260	+0.741	6	343.5	Medium / Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.293	+0.774	6	349.4	Medium / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.387	+0.868	7	336.7	Medium / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:46.433	+0.914	7	340.1	Medium / Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:46.638	+1.119	6	349.9	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 02.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.930	—	11	348.6	— / —	—			—
2	Joan Mir	01:47.019	+0.089	11	343.9	— / —	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.054	+0.124	11	352.8	Medium / Medium	1:47.688	+0.06%	6	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:47.115	+0.185	9	349.6	Medium / Medium	1:47.828	+0.19%	4	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.178	+0.248	11	340.6	Medium / Medium	1:47.723	+0.09%	8	Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.291	+0.361	11	342.5	— / —	—			—
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.371	+0.441	9	350.6	— / —	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:47.411	+0.481	11	343.8	— / —	—			—
9	Tito Rabat	01:47.483	+0.553	11	352.1	Medium / Medium	1:48.103	+0.44%	7	Medium
10	Michele Pirro	01:47.528	+0.598	11	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:47.629	—	5	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.529	+0.599	11	344.7	Medium / Medium	1:47.735	+0.10%	7	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:47.730	+0.800	11	351.5	— / —	—			—
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.750	+0.820	11	354.7	— / —	—			—
14	Maverick Viñales	01:47.756	+0.826	11	342.2	— / —	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:47.757	+0.827	11	344.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Andrea Iannone	01:47.759	+0.829	11	346.8	Medium / Medium	1:49.922	+2.13%	8	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.908	+0.978	11	338.4	Hard / Hard	1:48.546	+0.85%	9	Hard
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.102	+1.172	10	344.3	— / —	—			—
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.263	+1.333	9	344.0	— / —	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:48.461	+1.531	11	345.2	— / —	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:48.573	+1.643	11	348.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.844	+1.914	10	341.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.121	+2.191	8	338.9	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 02.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	41:33.794	25	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.090	+0.02%	21	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+0.043	20	23	missing / missing	1:48.106	+0.03%	21	missing
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+0.338	16	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.074	—	21	Medium
4	Alex Rins	+0.535	13	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.091	+0.02%	21	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	+6.535	11	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.420	+0.32%	21	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	+7.481	10	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.407	+0.31%	20	Medium
7	Michele Pirro	+13.288	9	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.713	+0.59%	21	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	+13.937	8	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.667	+0.55%	21	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	+16.533	7	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.813	+0.68%	21	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+17.994	6	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.601	+0.49%	20	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	+20.523	5	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.882	+0.75%	21	Medium
12	Joan Mir	+20.544	4	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.792	+0.66%	21	Medium
13	Jorge Lorenzo	+20.813	3	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.887	+0.75%	21	Medium
14	Karel Abraham	+27.298	2	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.174	+1.02%	21	Medium
15	Andrea Iannone	+28.051	1	23	Hard / Medium	1:49.039	+0.89%	21	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	+30.101	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.287	+1.12%	21	Medium
17	Johann Zarco	+41.857	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.695	+1.50%	21	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:48.160	+0.08%	8	Medium
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	5	Hard / Hard	—			—
Retired	Hafizh Syahrin		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:49.016	+0.87%	7	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	15	Medium / Medium	1:48.195	+0.11%	13	Medium
Out on lap 1	Tito Rabat		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	7	Hard / Medium	1:48.375	+0.28%	5	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:47.389	—	+0.105	Medium	9
Cal Crutchlow	1:47.446*	+0.057	+0.729	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:47.463	+0.074	+0.292	Medium	7
Danilo Petrucci	1:47.567	+0.178	+0.574	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.598	+0.209	+0.275	Medium	6
Michele Pirro	1:47.630	+0.241	+0.267	Medium	8
Alex Rins	1:47.661*	+0.272	+0.217	Medium	3
Andrea Dovizioso	1:47.711	+0.322	+0.226	Medium	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.731*	+0.342	+0.359	Medium	3
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.732	+0.343	+0.209	Medium	6
Johann Zarco	1:47.733*	+0.344	+0.344	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:47.746	+0.357	+0.512	Medium	6
Valentino Rossi	1:47.751	+0.362	+0.508	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:48.071*	+0.682	+0.562	Medium	4
Jorge Lorenzo	1:48.152	+0.763	+1.158	Medium	7
Tito Rabat	1:48.185	+0.796	+0.229	Medium	12
Francesco Bagnaia	1:48.188*	+0.799	+0.221	Medium	3
Andrea Iannone	1:48.291	+0.902	+0.224	Medium	5
Miguel Oliveira	1:48.493*	+1.104	+0.193	Medium	3
Karel Abraham	1:48.863*	+1.474	—	Medium	4
Hafizh Syahrin	1:49.212*	+1.823	+0.491	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Dovizioso	57%	1 ✓
2	Jorge Lorenzo	46%	7
3	Valentino Rossi	34%	8
4	Michele Pirro	18%	2 ✓
5	Tito Rabat	17%	4
6	Alex Rins	8%	3
7	Aleix Espargaro	10%	5
8	Karel Abraham	4%	6
9	Joan Mir	3%	10
10	Johann Zarco	3%	9
11	Andrea Iannone	2%	13
12	Miguel Oliveira	0%	12
13	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Danilo Petrucci	38%	70%	91%	3
2	Pol Espargaro	24%	52%	85%	11
3	Marc Marquez	15%	47%	82%	1
4	Takaaki Nakagami	5%	35%	69%	10
5	Jack Miller	4%	28%	56%	5
6	Fabio Quartararo	7%	21%	55%	2
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	12%	46%	7
8	Cal Crutchlow	3%	13%	38%	6
9	Franco Morbidelli	1%	7%	27%	4
10	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	8%	21%	8
11	Andrea Dovizioso	1%	6%	20%	9
12	Michele Pirro	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	60%	75%	84%	14%	2
Fabio Quartararo	2	22%	52%	67%	79%	20%	10
Danilo Petrucci	3	13%	41%	60%	75%	21%	1
Franco Morbidelli	4	13%	41%	63%	85%	12%	—
Jack Miller	5	7%	26%	44%	66%	28%	—
Cal Crutchlow	6	4%	20%	38%	65%	28%	8
Maverick Viñales	7	5%	20%	41%	78%	12%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	8	2%	10%	22%	53%	38%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	9	2%	10%	25%	71%	12%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	10	1%	7%	19%	65%	14%	5
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	13%	53%	22%	9
Michele Pirro	12	1%	3%	10%	48%	19%	7
Alex Rins	13	0%	2%	8%	42%	19%	4
Tito Rabat	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	18%	—
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	25%	11
Karel Abraham	16	0%	0%	2%	18%	32%	14
Jorge Lorenzo	17	0%	0%	2%	18%	11%	13
Valentino Rossi	18	0%	0%	1%	14%	8%	—
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	9%	17
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	29%	12
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	14%	—
Miguel Oliveira	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	10%	16
Andrea Iannone	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Jorge Martin +0.45%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Marc Marquez +0.52%
S2	Raul Fernandez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.48%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.50%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.22%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S3	Luca Marini +0.10%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.39%	Miguel Oliveira +0.58%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.33%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.24%	Danilo Petrucci +0.32%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.63%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.34%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.07%	Valentino Rossi +0.27%	Cal Crutchlow +0.43%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.21%	Andrea Iannone +0.31%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	95	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	87	−8
3	Alex Rins	75	−20
4	Valentino Rossi	72	−23
5	Danilo Petrucci	57	−38
6	Jack Miller	42	−53

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

6.370 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P16 to P9.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Maverick Viñales (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Lorenzo	1:48.323	—	+1.158	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:48.429	+0.106	+0.226	Soft	21
Cal Crutchlow	1:48.766	+0.443	+0.729	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:48.807	+0.484	+0.292	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:48.843	+0.520	+0.217	Soft	21
Alvaro Bautista	1:48.861	+0.538	+0.086	Soft	21
Valentino Rossi	1:48.938	+0.615	+0.508	Medium	21
Andrea Iannone	1:48.942	+0.619	+0.224	Soft	21
Johann Zarco	1:48.967	+0.644	+0.344	Medium	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:48.987	+0.664	+0.574	Soft	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	71%	+0.85%	+0.051	1	2	9.9
Medium	24%	+0.51%	+0.053	0	1	6.8
Hard	5%	+0.65%	+0.093	0	0	16.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.