Round 4 of 19 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2019

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

03.05 – 05.05.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:08.685	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.654	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.443	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+2.804	13
5	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+4.748	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.547	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+8.228	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+10.052	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+10.274	7
10	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Team HRC	+13.402	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.431	5
12	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.473	4
13	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+20.156	3
14	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+26.706	2
15	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+28.513	1
16	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+36.858	0
17	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Factory Racing	+41.390	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+41.570	0
19	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+50.568	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 28%	Marc Marquez · 14% · from P3	0.89 / 0.89	2.1 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.346	—	+0.210	Hard	23
Alex Rins	1:38.380	+0.034	+0.217	Hard	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.382	+0.036	+0.275	Hard	11
Maverick Viñales	1:38.506	+0.160	+0.292	Hard	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:38.550	+0.204	+0.226	Hard	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:38.552	+0.206	+0.574	Hard	23
Valentino Rossi	1:38.626	+0.280	+0.508	Hard	23
Joan Mir	1:38.720	+0.374	+0.562	Hard	18
Cal Crutchlow	1:38.725	+0.379	+0.729	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:38.744	+0.398	+0.105	Hard	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.769	+0.423	+0.512	Hard	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.772	+0.426	+0.209	Hard	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:38.800	+0.454	+0.359	Hard	23
Stefan Bradl	1:38.898	+0.552	+0.530	Hard	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:38.995	+0.649	+1.158	Medium	23
Pol Espargaro	1:39.008	+0.662	+0.406	Hard	23
Johann Zarco	1:39.370	+1.024	+0.344	Hard	23
Tito Rabat	1:39.387	+1.041	+0.229	Hard	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.387	+1.041	+0.221	Hard	4
Karel Abraham	1:39.736	+1.390	—	Hard	23
Bradley Smith	1:39.936	+1.590	+0.085	Hard	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.972	+1.626	+0.193	Hard	23
Hafizh Syahrin	1:40.143	+1.797	+0.491	Hard	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.654 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P9 to P2.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Miguel Oliveira (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:16		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:10:58	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:07	Fabio Quartararo	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:35:14	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:36:24	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:38:24	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	15	10	+5
Aleix Espargaro	16	12	+4
Alex Rins	9	6	+3
Francesco Bagnaia	10	16	−6
Jorge Lorenzo	11	14	−3
Fabio Quartararo	1	3	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	9→2	+6.0
Valentino Rossi	13→6	+4.5
Marc Marquez	3→1	+3.1
Bradley Smith	19→17	−2.6
Jorge Lorenzo	11→12	−2.7
Franco Morbidelli	2→7	−3.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	91%	+0.43%	−0.001	1	3	10.0
Medium	9%	+0.52%	+0.008	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.6 °C

Air

max 23.1 °C

47%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 34 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 03.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.921	—	18	288.9	Medium / Hard	1:38.822	—	5	Hard
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.045	+0.124	19	288.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:38.112	+0.191	17	284.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.134	+0.213	21	284.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.648	+1.85%	11	Medium
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.150	+0.229	19	287.7	Medium / Hard	1:40.791	+1.99%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.209	+0.288	21	285.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.782	+0.97%	12	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:38.464	+0.543	15	289.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.474	+0.553	19	288.6	Soft / Medium	1:39.215	+0.40%	7	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.478	+0.557	19	285.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.062	+1.26%	5	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:38.534	+0.613	20	284.9	Medium / Hard	1:39.977	+1.17%	10	Hard
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.800	+0.879	19	290.2	Soft / Medium	1:40.941	+2.14%	4	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:38.897	+0.976	19	285.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.088	+1.28%	11	Medium
13	Joan Mir	01:38.905	+0.984	21	289.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.482	+1.68%	14	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.942	+1.021	20	289.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.167	+1.36%	10	Medium
15	Stefan Bradl	01:38.975	+1.054	21	290.0	Medium / Medium	1:40.507	+1.71%	15	Soft
16	Andrea Iannone	01:39.064	+1.143	18	286.7	Soft / Medium	1:43.203	+4.43%	10	Medium
17	Pol Espargaro	01:39.141	+1.220	19	288.1	Soft / Medium	1:40.163	+1.36%	10	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	01:39.380	+1.459	20	283.6	Soft / Medium	1:39.609	+0.80%	6	Medium
19	Bradley Smith	01:39.410	+1.489	18	287.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.084	+1.28%	5	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:39.667	+1.746	20	286.0	Medium / Medium	1:41.097	+2.30%	10	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.675	+1.754	17	285.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	01:39.949	+2.028	17	286.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.313	+2.392	18	285.4	Medium / Medium	1:41.355	+2.56%	5	Medium
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.093	+3.172	18	283.3	Medium / Medium	1:41.669	+2.88%	4	Medium

FP2 · 03.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:37.909	—	18	285.9	Medium / Soft	1:38.911	+0.13%	6	Hard
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.006	+0.097	17	287.8	missing / missing	1:39.203	+0.42%	10	Hard
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.104	+0.195	20	288.9	Hard / Medium	1:41.524	+2.77%	6	Hard
4	Marc Marquez	01:38.147	+0.238	21	284.8	Hard / Hard	1:38.788	—	5	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:38.241	+0.332	18	281.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.370	+0.461	21	282.2	Medium / Soft	1:39.085	+0.30%	11	Hard
7	Stefan Bradl	01:38.373	+0.464	20	285.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.414	+0.505	19	282.2	Medium / Hard	1:39.492	+0.71%	6	Hard
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.445	+0.536	19	284.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.161	+0.38%	6	Hard
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.593	+0.684	17	284.0	Medium / Hard	1:39.653	+0.88%	6	Hard
11	Jack Miller	01:38.606	+0.697	23	284.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.332	+0.55%	12	Hard
12	Pol Espargaro	01:38.635	+0.726	18	287.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.537	+2.78%	5	Medium
13	Andrea Iannone	01:38.676	+0.767	19	283.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Valentino Rossi	01:38.681	+0.772	20	279.2	Medium / Soft	1:39.458	+0.68%	12	Hard
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.721	+0.812	19	285.4	Hard / Soft	1:39.760	+0.98%	5	Hard
16	Alex Rins	01:38.747	+0.838	22	282.2	Medium / Medium	1:39.206	+0.42%	6	Hard
17	Joan Mir	01:38.789	+0.880	20	286.4	Medium / Soft	1:39.600	+0.82%	8	Hard
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.900	+0.991	20	281.6	Medium / Medium	1:39.392	+0.61%	10	Hard
19	Tito Rabat	01:39.110	+1.201	21	284.2	Hard / Soft	1:40.176	+1.41%	12	Hard
20	Johann Zarco	01:39.366	+1.457	17	283.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:39.532	+1.623	16	281.7	Medium / Hard	1:40.355	+1.59%	11	Hard
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.774	+1.865	21	280.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.417	+1.65%	11	Hard
23	Bradley Smith	01:39.904	+1.995	15	281.6	Medium / Hard	1:40.404	+1.64%	6	Hard
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.894	+2.985	3	278.7	Hard / Hard	—			—

FP3 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:36.957	—	20	289.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.425	+0.31%	5	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	01:37.018	+0.061	22	287.7	Medium / Soft	1:38.119	—	5	Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.232	+0.275	20	282.9	Medium / Soft	1:38.483	+0.37%	9	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.292	+0.335	20	292.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Joan Mir	01:37.292	+0.335	22	284.9	Medium / Soft	1:38.786	+0.68%	5	Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:37.320	+0.363	20	286.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.324	+0.367	21	282.9	Medium / Soft	1:38.980	+0.88%	5	Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.358	+0.401	16	289.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.370	+0.413	20	284.8	Soft / Soft	1:38.698	+0.59%	5	Medium
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:37.376	+0.419	21	289.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Valentino Rossi	01:37.417	+0.460	21	286.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.374	+0.26%	5	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:37.424	+0.467	18	288.2	Medium / Medium	1:38.865	+0.76%	6	Hard
13	Pol Espargaro	01:37.492	+0.535	19	289.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.547	+0.590	18	288.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Maverick Viñales	01:37.661	+0.704	17	285.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Stefan Bradl	01:37.889	+0.932	21	287.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.118	+1.02%	9	Hard
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.006	+1.049	18	287.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.983	+0.88%	5	Hard
18	Tito Rabat	01:38.245	+1.288	23	285.4	Hard / Soft	1:39.631	+1.54%	6	Hard
19	Johann Zarco	01:38.298	+1.341	19	285.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Andrea Iannone	01:38.327	+1.370	17	286.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Bradley Smith	01:38.580	+1.623	19	283.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.669	+1.712	20	285.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Karel Abraham	01:38.838	+1.881	18	284.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.218	+3.261	20	281.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.608	+2.54%	6	Soft

FP4 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.651	—	16	290.7	Hard / Hard	1:38.162	—	12	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:37.661	+0.010	15	284.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.756	+0.105	15	289.1	Hard / Medium	1:39.581	+1.45%	4	Hard
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.925	+0.274	15	280.2	Hard / Hard	1:39.098	+0.95%	11	Medium
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.023	+0.372	14	288.9	Hard / Hard	1:38.638	+0.49%	10	Hard
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.065	+0.414	15	279.8	Hard / Hard	1:38.506	+0.35%	10	Hard
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.086	+0.435	10	286.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.106	+0.455	13	285.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.255	+0.604	16	283.9	Hard / Hard	1:38.550	+0.40%	12	Hard
10	Alex Rins	01:38.259	+0.608	15	282.9	Medium / Hard	1:38.464	+0.31%	11	Hard
11	Jack Miller	01:38.404	+0.753	12	289.3	Medium / Hard	1:38.859	+0.71%	5	Hard
12	Pol Espargaro	01:38.450	+0.799	14	287.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	01:38.476	+0.825	15	283.3	Hard / Hard	1:38.964	+0.82%	11	Hard
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.478	+0.827	14	287.3	Hard / Medium	1:38.745	+0.59%	5	Hard
15	Stefan Bradl	01:38.550	+0.899	16	288.5	Hard / Hard	1:38.752	+0.60%	13	Hard
16	Joan Mir	01:38.567	+0.916	16	285.5	Medium / Hard	1:39.004	+0.86%	11	Hard
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.792	+1.141	15	284.2	Hard / Hard	1:38.996	+0.85%	8	Hard
18	Tito Rabat	01:38.962	+1.311	17	284.5	Hard / Medium	1:40.144	+2.02%	11	Hard
19	Bradley Smith	01:39.032	+1.381	13	283.7	Medium / Medium	1:39.390	+1.25%	6	Hard
20	Johann Zarco	01:39.097	+1.446	13	288.1	Hard / Hard	1:39.633	+1.50%	5	Hard
21	Karel Abraham	01:39.313	+1.662	12	280.8	Hard / Hard	1:40.074	+1.95%	4	Hard
22	Andrea Iannone	01:39.419	+1.768	2	283.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
23	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.555	+1.904	16	281.9	Medium / Hard	1:39.982	+1.85%	12	Hard
24	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.462	+2.811	12	283.0	Hard / Hard	—			—

Q1 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:37.164	—	6	282.6	Medium / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.299	+0.135	8	284.8	Hard / Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:37.371	+0.207	7	285.4	Medium / Soft
4	Stefan Bradl	01:37.406	+0.242	8	286.3	Hard / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:37.605	+0.441	7	286.7	Medium / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.625	+0.461	7	284.7	Medium / Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:37.798	+0.634	8	286.3	Hard / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:37.820	+0.656	7	284.7	Medium / Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:38.357	+1.193	7	283.3	Medium / Soft
10	Tito Rabat	01:38.403	+1.239	8	284.2	Hard / Soft
11	Karel Abraham	01:38.447	+1.283	7	282.0	Hard / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.894	+1.730	8	280.7	Hard / Soft
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.042	+2.878	8	280.7	Medium / Soft
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 04.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:36.880	—	8	281.6	Medium / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:36.962	+0.082	8	284.7	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:36.970	+0.090	8	286.8	Hard / Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.018	+0.138	7	287.3	Medium / Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:37.114	+0.234	8	281.1	Medium / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.175	+0.295	9	286.2	Hard / Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:37.209	+0.329	7	286.2	Medium / Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.332	+0.452	8	281.2	Hard / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:37.351	+0.471	7	284.0	Medium / Soft
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.384	+0.504	8	286.4	Medium / Soft
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:37.496	+0.616	5	286.0	Hard / Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:37.514	+0.634	7	280.3	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.595	—	10	290.4	Medium / Hard	1:38.921	+0.53%	7	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:37.936	+0.341	12	285.7	Medium / Hard	1:38.499	+0.10%	10	Hard
3	Joan Mir	01:38.056	+0.461	11	283.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.065	+0.470	12	284.5	Hard / Hard	1:38.403	—	5	Hard
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.119	+0.524	12	284.0	Medium / Hard	1:38.998	+0.61%	8	Hard
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.127	+0.532	12	287.1	Medium / Soft	1:38.507	+0.11%	9	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.148	+0.553	11	283.9	Medium / Hard	1:38.467	+0.07%	8	Hard
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.172	+0.577	12	288.4	Medium / Medium	1:38.537	+0.14%	8	Medium
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.232	+0.637	11	287.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.260	+0.665	12	290.8	Medium / Hard	1:39.654	+1.27%	10	Hard
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.262	+0.667	12	287.3	Medium / Medium	1:38.702	+0.30%	10	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	01:38.336	+0.741	12	288.0	Medium / Medium	1:38.572	+0.17%	7	Medium
13	Stefan Bradl	01:38.484	+0.889	12	288.6	Medium / Hard	1:38.653	+0.25%	7	Hard
14	Tito Rabat	01:38.561	+0.966	12	285.7	Hard / Hard	1:39.334	+0.95%	8	Hard
15	Valentino Rossi	01:38.565	+0.970	11	284.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Alex Rins	01:38.630	+1.035	11	284.8	Soft / Hard	1:38.702	+0.30%	6	Hard
17	Bradley Smith	01:38.840	+1.245	12	284.5	Medium / Hard	1:38.949	+0.56%	9	Hard
18	Jack Miller	01:38.842	+1.247	12	288.5	Medium / Hard	1:39.236	+0.85%	9	Hard
19	Johann Zarco	01:39.134	+1.539	9	283.5	Medium / Medium	1:40.017	+1.64%	5	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:39.480	+1.885	12	282.0	Medium / Hard	1:40.908	+2.55%	10	Hard
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.488	+1.893	11	281.1	Medium / Hard	—			—
22	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.665	+2.070	7	283.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.092	+3.497	10	281.1	Medium / Hard	—			—

Race · 05.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:08.685	25	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.346	—	23	Hard
2	Alex Rins	+1.654	20	25	Medium / Hard	1:38.380	+0.04%	23	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	+2.443	16	25	Medium / Hard	1:38.506	+0.16%	23	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+2.804	13	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.550	+0.21%	23	Hard
5	Danilo Petrucci	+4.748	11	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.552	+0.21%	23	Hard
6	Valentino Rossi	+7.547	10	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.626	+0.29%	23	Hard
7	Franco Morbidelli	+8.228	9	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.769	+0.43%	23	Hard
8	Cal Crutchlow	+10.052	8	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.725	+0.39%	23	Medium
9	Takaaki Nakagami	+10.274	7	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.800	+0.46%	23	Hard
10	Stefan Bradl	+13.402	6	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.898	+0.56%	23	Hard
11	Aleix Espargaro	+15.431	5	25	Hard / Hard	1:38.772	+0.43%	23	Hard
12	Jorge Lorenzo	+18.473	4	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.995	+0.66%	23	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	+20.156	3	25	Hard / Hard	1:39.008	+0.67%	23	Hard
14	Johann Zarco	+26.706	2	25	Hard / Hard	1:39.370	+1.04%	23	Hard
15	Tito Rabat	+28.513	1	25	Hard / Hard	1:39.387	+1.06%	23	Hard
16	Karel Abraham	+36.858	0	25	Hard / Hard	1:39.736	+1.41%	23	Hard
17	Bradley Smith	+41.390	0	25	Medium / Hard	1:39.936	+1.62%	23	Hard
18	Miguel Oliveira	+41.570	0	25	Hard / Hard	1:39.972	+1.65%	23	Hard
19	Hafizh Syahrin	+50.568	0	25	Hard / Hard	1:40.143	+1.83%	23	Hard
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	13	Hard / Hard	1:38.382	+0.04%	11	Hard
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	6	Hard / Hard	1:39.387	+1.06%	4	Hard
Retired	Jack Miller		0	22	Hard / Hard	1:38.744	+0.41%	20	Hard
Retired	Joan Mir		0	20	Medium / Hard	1:38.720	+0.38%	18	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Danilo Petrucci	1:38.273	—	+0.574	Medium	5
Valentino Rossi	1:38.530*	+0.257	+0.508	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:38.556	+0.283	+0.292	Medium	7
Jorge Lorenzo	1:38.690	+0.417	+1.158	Medium	8
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.865	+0.592	+0.275	Medium	11
Pol Espargaro	1:39.045*	+0.772	+0.406	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:39.389*	+1.116	+0.344	Medium	3
Stefan Bradl	1:39.472	+1.199	+0.530	Medium	7
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.526	+1.253	+0.193	Medium	6
Bradley Smith	1:39.561*	+1.288	+0.085	Medium	3
Tito Rabat	1:40.321*	+2.048	+0.229	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Valentino Rossi	57%	3
2	Jack Miller	46%	5
3	Pol Espargaro	35%	7
4	Aleix Espargaro	18%	6
5	Maverick Viñales	16%	1 ✓
6	Stefan Bradl	8%	4
7	Francesco Bagnaia	9%	2 ✓
8	Tito Rabat	4%	10
9	Johann Zarco	3%	8
10	Bradley Smith	3%	9
11	Miguel Oliveira	2%	12
12	Karel Abraham	0%	11
13	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Danilo Petrucci	37%	70%	92%	7
2	Marc Marquez	25%	52%	85%	3
3	Fabio Quartararo	15%	46%	82%	1
4	Andrea Dovizioso	5%	36%	69%	4
5	Joan Mir	4%	28%	57%	12
6	Alex Rins	7%	22%	56%	9
7	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	11%	46%	8
8	Cal Crutchlow	3%	14%	36%	6
9	Franco Morbidelli	1%	6%	26%	2
10	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	8%	22%	11
11	Maverick Viñales	1%	6%	19%	5
12	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	1%	12%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Andrea Iannone	24	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	28%	58%	74%	84%	13%	—
Franco Morbidelli	2	20%	50%	69%	84%	13%	7
Marc Marquez	3	14%	42%	63%	82%	15%	1
Andrea Dovizioso	4	11%	37%	60%	82%	13%	4
Maverick Viñales	5	9%	31%	54%	83%	11%	3
Cal Crutchlow	6	5%	19%	36%	64%	28%	8
Danilo Petrucci	7	4%	18%	34%	68%	21%	5
Takaaki Nakagami	8	4%	15%	32%	75%	12%	9
Alex Rins	9	2%	9%	21%	62%	20%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	10	2%	6%	16%	55%	24%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	11	1%	5%	13%	57%	11%	12
Joan Mir	12	1%	3%	8%	42%	24%	—
Valentino Rossi	13	0%	2%	7%	41%	8%	6
Stefan Bradl	14	0%	2%	4%	30%	22%	10
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	27%	—
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	25%	11
Pol Espargaro	17	0%	0%	1%	14%	22%	13
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	9%	14
Bradley Smith	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	14%	17
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	17%	15
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	31%	16
Miguel Oliveira	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	13%	18
Hafizh Syahrin	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	19
Andrea Iannone	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	27%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	54	—
2	Valentino Rossi	51	−3
3	Alex Rins	49	−5
4	Marc Marquez	45	−9
5	Danilo Petrucci	30	−24
6	Jack Miller	29	−25

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

5.241 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Valentino Rossi (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:39.463	—	+0.210	Medium	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:39.499	+0.036	+0.226	Medium	15
Jorge Lorenzo	1:39.522	+0.059	+1.158	Medium	15
Daniel Pedrosa	1:39.563	+0.100	+0.089	Medium	15
Cal Crutchlow	1:39.602	+0.139	+0.729	Medium	13
Johann Zarco	1:39.971	+0.508	+0.344	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:40.002	+0.539	+0.105	Hard	23
Valentino Rossi	1:40.035	+0.572	+0.508	Medium	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:40.052	+0.589	+0.574	Medium	23
Andrea Iannone	1:40.075	+0.612	+0.224	Hard	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	82%	+0.76%	+0.023	1	2	9.3
Hard	18%	+0.58%	+0.026	0	1	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.