Round 8 of 19 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2018

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

29.06 – 01.07.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:13.863	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.269	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.308	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+2.422	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.963	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+3.876	10
7	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+4.462	9
8	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+7.001	8
9	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+7.541	7
10	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+13.056	6
11	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+14.255	5
12	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.876	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.986	3
14	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+16.019	2
15	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+16.043	1
16	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+16.416	0
17	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+29.073	0
18	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+33.824	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+34.037	0
20	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+47.853	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0
DNF	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.81 / 0.81	2.8 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:34.834	—	+0.210	Soft	24
Alex Rins	1:34.860	+0.026	+0.217	Hard	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:34.866	+0.032	+0.729	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:34.893	+0.059	+0.292	Soft	23
Valentino Rossi	1:34.976	+0.142	+0.508	Soft	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:35.020	+0.186	+0.226	Hard	24
Andrea Iannone	1:35.078	+0.244	+0.224	Hard	22
Alvaro Bautista	1:35.083	+0.249	+0.086	Soft	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:35.091	+0.257	+1.158	Hard	22
Johann Zarco	1:35.095	+0.261	+0.344	Hard	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:35.153	+0.319	+0.574	Hard	13
Jack Miller	1:35.180	+0.346	+0.105	Hard	23
Tito Rabat	1:35.383	+0.549	+0.229	Soft	23
Pol Espargaro	1:35.383	+0.549	+0.406	Hard	23
Daniel Pedrosa	1:35.397	+0.563	+0.089	Soft	24
Scott Redding	1:35.446	+0.612	+0.263	Soft	24
Aleix Espargaro	1:35.469	+0.635	+0.209	Hard	23
Bradley Smith	1:35.798	+0.964	+0.085	Hard	24
Karel Abraham	1:36.168	+1.334	—	Hard	8
Hafizh Syahrin	1:36.236	+1.402	+0.491	Soft	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:36.285	+1.451	+0.359	Hard	23
Thomas Luthi	1:36.624	+1.790	+0.237	Hard	24
Xavier Simeon	1:36.672	+1.838	—	Soft	13

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

5 leaders

8/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.269 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Scott Redding (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:27		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:18:29	Karel Abraham	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:28:10	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:58	Xavier Simeon	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:33:40	Andrea Iannone	Time penalty	2 seconds penalty to be imposed at the end of the race

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P10).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Lorenzo	10	1	+9
Pol Espargaro	21	14	+7
Jack Miller	16	12	+4
Hafizh Syahrin	15	20	−5
Karel Abraham	19	22	−3
Cal Crutchlow	2	5	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Pol Espargaro	21→12	+3.7
Alex Rins	5→2	+3.4
Maverick Viñales	6→3	+3.0
Hafizh Syahrin	15→18	−6.2
Aleix Espargaro	7→13	−6.3
Takaaki Nakagami	13→19	−8.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	57%	+0.36%	+0.030	0	1	11.2
Soft	44%	+0.42%	+0.024	1	2	9.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.5 °C

Air

max 23.7 °C

33%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

24 km/h

Wind

gusts 50 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:34.227	—	21	312.5	Medium / Soft	1:35.196	+0.11%	12	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:34.404	+0.177	19	314.4	Soft / Medium	1:35.253	+0.17%	9	Medium
3	Valentino Rossi	01:34.513	+0.286	20	306.9	Medium / Medium	1:35.845	+0.79%	11	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:34.548	+0.321	20	307.6	Medium / Hard	1:36.078	+1.03%	6	Hard
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.637	+0.410	19	315.5	Soft / Medium	1:37.034	+2.04%	7	Medium
6	Andrea Iannone	01:34.684	+0.457	21	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:36.881	+1.88%	5	Medium
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.811	+0.584	16	311.0	Medium / Medium	1:35.096	—	5	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.820	+0.593	20	307.8	Medium / Soft	1:36.630	+1.61%	11	Medium
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.898	+0.671	19	313.4	Soft / Medium	1:36.376	+1.35%	10	Medium
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:35.037	+0.810	18	310.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.799	+0.74%	10	Medium
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.096	+0.869	16	316.3	Soft / Medium	1:35.952	+0.90%	6	Medium
12	Tito Rabat	01:35.102	+0.875	21	306.9	Soft / Medium	1:36.436	+1.41%	12	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:35.146	+0.919	19	309.9	Soft / Medium	1:36.398	+1.37%	6	Medium
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.182	+0.955	19	311.5	Medium / Medium	1:36.340	+1.31%	11	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:35.245	+1.018	21	308.6	Soft / Medium	1:36.471	+1.45%	11	Medium
16	Bradley Smith	01:35.271	+1.044	17	307.5	Medium / Medium	1:36.983	+1.98%	5	Medium
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:35.289	+1.062	17	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Pol Espargaro	01:35.376	+1.149	19	312.6	Soft / Medium	1:36.707	+1.69%	9	Medium
19	Karel Abraham	01:35.669	+1.442	18	310.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.834	+3.93%	7	Medium
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.838	+1.611	20	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:36.984	+1.99%	10	Medium
21	Scott Redding	01:35.935	+1.708	20	306.0	Medium / Medium	1:36.283	+1.25%	5	Medium
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:35.955	+1.728	20	307.2	Soft / Medium	1:37.070	+2.08%	11	Medium
23	Thomas Luthi	01:36.471	+2.244	19	304.9	Soft / Soft	1:37.375	+2.40%	7	Soft
24	Xavier Simeon	01:36.955	+2.728	19	307.2	Soft / Medium	1:37.673	+2.71%	10	Medium

FP2 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:33.378	—	24	311.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.483	+0.10%	15	Hard
2	Andrea Iannone	01:33.499	+0.121	22	308.0	Medium / Soft	1:35.345	+1.01%	4	Hard
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.764	+0.386	21	312.8	Soft / Soft	1:35.074	+0.72%	8	Hard
4	Valentino Rossi	01:33.779	+0.401	21	309.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.837	+0.47%	11	Hard
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.812	+0.434	20	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:35.184	+0.84%	10	Hard
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.859	+0.481	20	313.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.185	+0.84%	7	Hard
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.870	+0.492	17	313.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Marc Marquez	01:34.041	+0.663	22	313.3	Hard / Hard	1:34.391	—	11	Hard
9	Alex Rins	01:34.047	+0.669	21	310.2	Medium / Hard	1:34.824	+0.46%	10	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	01:34.133	+0.755	18	309.7	Soft / Soft	1:35.299	+0.96%	6	Hard
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.167	+0.789	21	312.5	Medium / Soft	1:35.165	+0.82%	7	Hard
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.246	+0.868	21	309.9	Soft / Soft	1:36.143	+1.86%	11	Hard
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.318	+0.940	21	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:35.151	+0.81%	10	Medium
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.484	+1.106	22	313.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.205	+0.86%	13	Hard
15	Karel Abraham	01:34.522	+1.144	20	311.5	Medium / Hard	1:36.689	+2.44%	11	Soft
16	Jack Miller	01:34.535	+1.157	18	309.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Tito Rabat	01:34.576	+1.198	22	308.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.366	+1.03%	12	Hard
18	Bradley Smith	01:34.700	+1.322	17	307.8	Medium / Soft	1:36.730	+2.48%	6	Hard
19	Pol Espargaro	01:34.822	+1.444	17	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.855	+1.477	23	307.4	Medium / Soft	1:36.111	+1.82%	9	Soft
21	Scott Redding	01:34.970	+1.592	19	303.5	Hard / Hard	1:36.079	+1.79%	5	Hard
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:35.287	+1.909	18	308.3	Hard / Soft	1:35.654	+1.34%	6	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:36.129	+2.751	21	306.3	Medium / Hard	1:36.777	+2.53%	11	Hard
24	Xavier Simeon	01:36.157	+2.779	17	309.1	Soft / Soft	1:37.032	+2.80%	4	Hard

FP3 · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:33.341	—	23	312.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.503	—	12	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:33.342	+0.001	24	312.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.796	+0.31%	10	Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.347	+0.006	19	312.5	Medium / Soft	1:35.207	+0.75%	7	Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:33.388	+0.047	21	307.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.892	+0.41%	6	Soft
5	Andrea Iannone	01:33.403	+0.062	21	312.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.787	+0.446	17	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.965	+0.49%	5	Hard
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.825	+0.484	19	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.848	+0.507	23	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.505	+1.06%	10	Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.872	+0.531	19	314.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Pol Espargaro	01:33.915	+0.574	17	313.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:33.939	+0.598	19	309.8	Soft / Soft	1:35.493	+1.05%	5	Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:33.968	+0.627	20	311.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.986	+0.645	21	312.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.858	+0.38%	7	Soft
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.073	+0.732	20	313.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Tito Rabat	01:34.151	+0.810	21	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.971	+0.50%	10	Soft
16	Alex Rins	01:34.202	+0.861	21	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:36.052	+1.64%	5	Soft
17	Bradley Smith	01:34.624	+1.283	18	308.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Scott Redding	01:34.637	+1.296	21	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.550	+1.11%	6	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.722	+1.381	20	308.1	Medium / Soft	1:36.638	+2.26%	11	Soft
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.988	+1.647	11	307.0	Medium / Medium	1:35.578	+1.14%	5	Medium
21	Karel Abraham	01:35.215	+1.874	20	309.3	Medium / Soft	1:37.061	+2.71%	10	Hard
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.576	+2.235	16	306.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Thomas Luthi	01:35.828	+2.487	20	305.1	Medium / Soft	1:36.658	+2.28%	10	Hard
24	Xavier Simeon	01:35.927	+2.586	18	307.1	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:33.954	—	17	311.3	— / —	—			—
2	Andrea Iannone	01:34.011	+0.057	15	308.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.224	+0.270	15	313.4	Medium / Hard	1:34.933	—	5	Hard
4	Maverick Viñales	01:34.277	+0.323	16	309.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.289	+0.335	16	311.8	— / —	—			—
6	Alex Rins	01:34.349	+0.395	15	307.1	— / —	—			—
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.584	+0.630	17	305.5	Medium / Soft	1:35.727	+0.84%	6	Hard
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.663	+0.709	18	309.1	Medium / Soft	1:35.088	+0.16%	8	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:34.791	+0.837	13	305.3	— / —	—			—
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.854	+0.900	14	311.0	— / —	—			—
11	Valentino Rossi	01:34.866	+0.912	12	306.7	Hard / Medium	1:35.624	+0.73%	5	Medium
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.915	+0.961	12	304.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:35.061	+1.107	14	311.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
14	Tito Rabat	01:35.106	+1.152	17	303.6	— / —	—			—
15	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.154	+1.200	16	307.9	— / —	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:35.195	+1.241	13	307.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Scott Redding	01:35.276	+1.322	13	305.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.948	+1.07%	4	Soft
18	Alvaro Bautista	01:35.322	+1.368	12	308.2	Medium / Hard	1:36.456	+1.60%	5	Hard
19	Karel Abraham	01:35.322	+1.368	11	306.6	— / —	—			—
20	Bradley Smith	01:35.560	+1.606	13	306.9	— / —	—			—
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:35.586	+1.632	8	305.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Thomas Luthi	01:36.000	+2.046	15	304.5	Medium / Soft	1:37.612	+2.82%	6	Soft
23	Xavier Simeon	01:36.180	+2.226	14	305.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:33.578	—	8	309.5	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:33.600	+0.022	8	308.3	Medium / Soft
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.625	+0.047	9	307.6	Medium / Soft
4	Tito Rabat	01:33.666	+0.088	8	308.6	Soft / Soft
5	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.666	+0.088	8	308.8	Soft / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:33.672	+0.094	8	310.6	Soft / Soft
7	Scott Redding	01:33.995	+0.417	8	310.3	Soft / Soft
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:34.125	+0.547	8	313.3	Medium / Soft
9	Karel Abraham	01:34.145	+0.567	8	309.8	Medium / Soft
10	Bradley Smith	01:34.149	+0.571	8	308.6	Medium / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:34.268	+0.690	8	314.0	Medium / Soft
12	Thomas Luthi	01:35.192	+1.614	8	306.6	Medium / Soft
13	Xavier Simeon	01:35.646	+2.068	8	307.6	Soft / Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.791	—	8	313.6	Medium / Soft
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.832	+0.041	8	314.9	Medium / Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:32.850	+0.059	8	309.1	Medium / Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.870	+0.079	8	315.5	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:32.933	+0.142	7	311.8	Medium / Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:32.984	+0.193	8	314.1	Soft / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.029	+0.238	8	311.5	Soft / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:33.072	+0.281	7	309.1	Soft / Soft
9	Andrea Iannone	01:33.120	+0.329	8	309.3	Medium / Soft
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.167	+0.376	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.292	+0.501	7	311.5	Medium / Soft
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.015	+1.224	8	311.8	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 01.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:33.939	—	13	310.5	Medium / Hard	1:34.097	—	9	Hard
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.181	+0.242	12	312.5	Medium / Hard	1:35.490	+1.48%	9	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	01:34.371	+0.432	11	310.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.965	+0.92%	5	Soft
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:34.475	+0.536	9	310.7	Soft / Hard	—			—
5	Andrea Iannone	01:34.492	+0.553	12	306.9	Medium / Hard	1:35.936	+1.95%	6	Hard
6	Pol Espargaro	01:34.534	+0.595	13	309.6	Medium / Hard	1:35.077	+1.04%	10	Hard
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.599	+0.660	13	310.7	Medium / Hard	1:35.184	+1.16%	11	Hard
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.647	+0.708	13	308.0	Soft / Soft	1:35.287	+1.27%	11	Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:34.659	+0.720	11	304.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:34.735	+0.796	12	311.5	Medium / Soft	1:36.151	+2.18%	5	Hard
11	Jack Miller	01:34.740	+0.801	13	307.8	Medium / Hard	1:35.004	+0.96%	7	Hard
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.760	+0.821	13	303.2	Soft / Hard	1:35.175	+1.15%	7	Hard
13	Johann Zarco	01:34.760	+0.821	13	304.6	Medium / Hard	1:35.383	+1.37%	11	Hard
14	Alex Rins	01:34.761	+0.822	12	306.9	Medium / Hard	1:35.167	+1.14%	8	Hard
15	Bradley Smith	01:34.777	+0.838	13	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:35.245	+1.22%	9	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.783	+0.844	12	304.9	Medium / Hard	1:35.812	+1.82%	6	Soft
17	Tito Rabat	01:34.956	+1.017	12	305.7	Medium / Hard	—			—
18	Daniel Pedrosa	01:35.090	+1.151	11	308.6	Medium / Medium	1:35.359	+1.34%	5	Medium
19	Scott Redding	01:35.108	+1.169	12	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.924	+1.94%	6	Soft
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.164	+1.225	12	304.6	Medium / Soft	1:36.942	+3.02%	9	Soft
21	Thomas Luthi	01:35.623	+1.684	13	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:36.355	+2.40%	11	Soft
22	Karel Abraham	01:35.832	+1.893	12	306.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.828	+2.90%	6	Soft
23	Xavier Simeon	01:36.078	+2.139	12	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:36.979	+3.06%	4	Soft

Race · 01.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:13.863	25	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.834	—	24	Soft
2	Alex Rins	+2.269	20	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.860	+0.03%	22	Hard
3	Maverick Viñales	+2.308	16	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.893	+0.06%	23	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+2.422	13	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.020	+0.20%	24	Hard
5	Valentino Rossi	+2.963	11	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.976	+0.15%	24	Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	+3.876	10	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.866	+0.03%	24	Soft
7	Jorge Lorenzo	+4.462	9	26	Soft / Hard	1:35.091	+0.27%	22	Hard
8	Johann Zarco	+7.001	8	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.095	+0.28%	23	Hard
9	Alvaro Bautista	+7.541	7	26	Soft / Soft	1:35.083	+0.26%	23	Soft
10	Jack Miller	+13.056	6	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.180	+0.37%	23	Hard
11	Andrea Iannone	+14.255	5	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.078	+0.26%	22	Hard
12	Pol Espargaro	+15.876	4	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.383	+0.58%	23	Hard
13	Aleix Espargaro	+15.986	3	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.469	+0.67%	23	Hard
14	Scott Redding	+16.019	2	26	Medium / Soft	1:35.446	+0.65%	24	Soft
15	Daniel Pedrosa	+16.043	1	26	Medium / Soft	1:35.397	+0.59%	24	Soft
16	Tito Rabat	+16.416	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:35.383	+0.58%	23	Soft
17	Bradley Smith	+29.073	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.798	+1.02%	24	Hard
18	Hafizh Syahrin	+33.824	0	26	Soft / Soft	1:36.236	+1.48%	24	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+34.037	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:36.285	+1.53%	23	Hard
20	Thomas Luthi	+47.853	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:36.624	+1.89%	24	Hard
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	17	Medium / Hard	1:35.153	+0.34%	13	Hard
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	11	Medium / Hard	1:36.168	+1.41%	8	Hard
Retired	Xavier Simeon		0	17	Soft / Soft	1:36.672	+1.94%	13	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:34.347	—	+0.210	Medium	7
Alvaro Bautista	1:35.166	+0.819	+0.086	Medium	6
Daniel Pedrosa	1:35.357*	+1.010	+0.089	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	56%	11
2	Johann Zarco	50%	1 ✓
3	Jack Miller	36%	6
4	Alex Rins	16%	2 ✓
5	Daniel Pedrosa	17%	8
6	Tito Rabat	6%	4
7	Hafizh Syahrin	7%	5
8	Karel Abraham	4%	9
9	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	3
10	Bradley Smith	3%	10
11	Scott Redding	2%	7
12	Thomas Luthi	0%	12
13	Xavier Simeon	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	40%	72%	93%	1
2	Maverick Viñales	23%	54%	85%	6
3	Cal Crutchlow	17%	50%	84%	2
4	Valentino Rossi	4%	35%	68%	3
5	Andrea Iannone	3%	27%	59%	9
6	Danilo Petrucci	5%	20%	58%	11
7	Jorge Lorenzo	1%	11%	42%	10
8	Aleix Espargaro	3%	14%	35%	7
9	Alvaro Bautista	1%	6%	26%	12
10	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	5%	19%	4
11	Johann Zarco	0%	6%	20%	8
12	Alex Rins	0%	1%	12%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Franco Morbidelli	24	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	62%	75%	85%	14%	1
Cal Crutchlow	2	17%	43%	58%	70%	28%	6
Valentino Rossi	3	16%	48%	68%	87%	9%	5
Andrea Dovizioso	4	12%	38%	60%	82%	14%	4
Alex Rins	5	6%	24%	44%	68%	28%	2
Maverick Viñales	6	6%	26%	49%	84%	9%	3
Aleix Espargaro	7	4%	16%	32%	67%	25%	13
Johann Zarco	8	3%	13%	32%	74%	10%	8
Andrea Iannone	9	2%	8%	19%	57%	27%	11
Jorge Lorenzo	10	2%	7%	19%	66%	10%	7
Danilo Petrucci	11	1%	5%	13%	51%	22%	—
Alvaro Bautista	12	1%	4%	9%	44%	21%	9
Takaaki Nakagami	13	0%	3%	7%	40%	17%	19
Tito Rabat	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	15%	16
Hafizh Syahrin	15	0%	1%	4%	24%	24%	18
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	28%	10
Scott Redding	17	0%	0%	2%	15%	16%	14
Daniel Pedrosa	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	12%	15
Karel Abraham	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	32%	—
Bradley Smith	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	13%	17
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	12
Thomas Luthi	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	32%	20
Xavier Simeon	23	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	—
Franco Morbidelli	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	115	—
2	Valentino Rossi	88	−27
3	Maverick Viñales	77	−38
4	Johann Zarco	73	−42
5	Danilo Petrucci	71	−44
6	Cal Crutchlow	69	−46

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

14/26

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

0.063 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Karel Abraham, from P18 to P7.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Valentino Rossi (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet