Round 7 of 19 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2018

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

15.06 – 17.06.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	40:13.566	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.479	20
3	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+6.098	16
4	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+9.805	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.640	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+10.798	10
7	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+13.432	9
8	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+15.055	8
9	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+22.057	7
10	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+24.141	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+36.560	5
12	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+38.229	4
13	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+81.526	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+0.000	2
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0
DNF	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Lorenzo · 29% ✓	Jorge Lorenzo · 29% · from P1	0.70 / 0.70	3.3 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Lorenzo	1:40.322	—	+1.158	Soft	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.336	+0.014	+0.226	Soft	6
Marc Marquez	1:40.422	+0.100	+0.210	Hard	22
Valentino Rossi	1:40.554	+0.232	+0.508	Soft	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:40.654	+0.332	+0.729	Soft	22
Maverick Viñales	1:40.665	+0.343	+0.292	Soft	22
Johann Zarco	1:40.729	+0.407	+0.344	Medium	22
Daniel Pedrosa	1:40.818	+0.496	+0.089	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:40.881	+0.559	+0.105	Soft	15
Tito Rabat	1:40.884	+0.562	+0.229	Soft	16
Danilo Petrucci	1:40.904	+0.582	+0.574	Soft	22
Hafizh Syahrin	1:40.958	+0.636	+0.491	Soft	18
Alvaro Bautista	1:41.128	+0.806	+0.086	Soft	22
Andrea Iannone	1:41.231	+0.909	+0.224	Soft	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.366	+1.044	+0.512	Hard	18
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.607	+1.285	+0.359	Soft	11
Pol Espargaro	1:41.758	+1.436	+0.406	Soft	22
Scott Redding	1:41.781	+1.459	+0.263	Soft	22
Bradley Smith	1:41.860	+1.538	+0.085	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:41.882	+1.560	+0.217	Soft	9
Xavier Simeon	1:42.587	+2.265	—	Soft	5
Karel Abraham	1:43.178	+2.856	—	Soft	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/24

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

4.479 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P22 to P9.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Maverick Viñales (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:23		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:02:26	Mika Kallio	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:14	Sylvain Guintoli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:31	Thomas Luthi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:08	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:06	Xavier Simeon	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:53	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:56	Alex Rins	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:23:42	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:42	Bradley Smith	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:31:10	Tito Rabat	Retired	retired
Race	14:32:17	Jack Miller	Retired	retired
Race	14:33:55	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:35:01	Hafizh Syahrin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #41

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	16	8	+8
Daniel Pedrosa	11	6	+5
Alvaro Bautista	22	19	+3
Maverick Viñales	4	10	−6
Takaaki Nakagami	12	17	−5
Johann Zarco	8	12	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	22→9	+7.3
Cal Crutchlow	10→4	+4.6
Daniel Pedrosa	11→5	+4.3
Maverick Viñales	4→6	−1.2
Danilo Petrucci	6→8	−2.0
Andrea Iannone	5→10	−4.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	84%	+0.86%	−0.012	1	2	7.7
Hard	8%	+0.57%	+0.038	0	1	8.0
Medium	8%	+0.45%	−0.006	0	0	6.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.7 °C

Air

max 23.9 °C

69%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 29 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Valentino Rossi	01:39.456	—	19	337.3	— / —	—			—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.803	+0.347	18	345.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.804	+0.348	18	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.853	+0.70%	5	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:39.882	+0.426	21	341.4	— / —	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:39.933	+0.477	19	336.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:40.114	+0.658	21	339.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.391	+0.24%	12	Medium
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.159	+0.703	18	343.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.280	+0.13%	6	Medium
8	Tito Rabat	01:40.264	+0.808	20	340.0	— / —	—			—
9	Andrea Iannone	01:40.274	+0.818	20	338.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:40.310	+0.854	17	337.8	Medium / Hard	1:41.629	+0.48%	5	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.388	+0.932	17	339.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.841	+0.69%	5	Medium
12	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.454	+0.998	19	340.3	— / —	—			—
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.504	+1.048	18	335.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.795	+1.339	21	339.1	Soft / Soft	1:41.144	—	12	Soft
15	Mika Kallio	01:40.882	+1.426	20	335.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Xavier Simeon	01:40.896	+1.440	19	337.9	— / —	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:40.899	+1.443	20	334.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.540	+0.39%	10	Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	01:40.945	+1.489	18	341.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.957	+1.501	19	343.5	— / —	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.001	+1.545	20	335.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Scott Redding	01:41.038	+1.582	20	337.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.742	+0.59%	14	Medium
22	Bradley Smith	01:41.194	+1.738	19	335.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.961	+0.81%	5	Medium
23	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.350	+1.894	14	336.6	— / —	—			—
24	Sylvain Guintoli	01:41.436	+1.980	17	339.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
25	Thomas Luthi	01:41.438	+1.982	21	331.7	Soft / Soft	1:42.588	+1.43%	13	Medium
26	Karel Abraham	01:42.159	+2.703	15	336.5	Soft / Medium	1:44.265	+3.09%	5	Medium

FP2 · 15.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.930	—	17	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.355	—	5	Soft
2	Andrea Iannone	01:39.037	+0.107	20	338.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:39.422	+0.492	20	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.878	+0.52%	10	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.443	+0.513	18	348.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.251	+0.89%	5	Hard
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.458	+0.528	18	343.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.234	+0.88%	4	Hard
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.619	+0.689	20	344.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.107	+0.75%	12	Hard
7	Johann Zarco	01:39.633	+0.703	18	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.387	+0.03%	5	Medium
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.655	+0.725	21	343.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.684	+0.33%	12	Hard
9	Hafizh Syahrin	01:39.782	+0.852	20	336.8	Soft / Soft	1:42.080	+1.72%	6	Medium
10	Tito Rabat	01:39.851	+0.921	21	342.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.726	+0.37%	12	Hard
11	Valentino Rossi	01:39.989	+1.059	20	336.9	Soft / Medium	1:40.907	+0.55%	11	Hard
12	Marc Marquez	01:39.990	+1.060	17	342.2	Hard / Hard	1:40.602	+0.25%	6	Hard
13	Mika Kallio	01:40.004	+1.074	21	337.8	Medium / Soft	1:41.951	+1.59%	11	Medium
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.265	+1.335	21	340.4	Medium / Soft	1:42.172	+1.81%	10	Hard
15	Bradley Smith	01:40.309	+1.379	18	338.4	Soft / Soft	1:41.196	+0.84%	6	Hard
16	Alex Rins	01:40.399	+1.469	20	335.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.980	+0.62%	5	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.450	+1.520	20	334.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.825	+0.47%	5	Soft
18	Pol Espargaro	01:40.508	+1.578	17	341.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.541	+1.611	17	338.1	Medium / Hard	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:40.608	+1.678	19	338.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.419	+1.06%	6	Hard
21	Xavier Simeon	01:40.697	+1.767	19	339.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.728	+1.798	17	338.4	Medium / Soft	1:43.420	+3.05%	5	Hard
23	Scott Redding	01:40.815	+1.885	18	336.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
24	Thomas Luthi	01:40.975	+2.045	20	334.3	Medium / Soft	1:42.731	+2.37%	10	Soft
25	Sylvain Guintoli	01:41.229	+2.299	18	339.4	Medium / Hard	1:41.753	+1.39%	5	Hard
26	Karel Abraham	01:41.361	+2.431	19	339.5	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 16.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.923	—	19	347.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.012	+0.089	21	340.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.298	+0.36%	5	Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.041	+0.118	15	344.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.143	+0.220	19	339.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.260	+0.32%	10	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:39.150	+0.227	19	341.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.368	+0.43%	5	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.202	+0.279	19	343.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.219	+0.296	22	344.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.898	+0.96%	12	Medium
8	Tito Rabat	01:39.256	+0.333	23	342.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.198	+0.26%	16	Soft
9	Marc Marquez	01:39.390	+0.467	18	343.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.966	+0.02%	10	Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	01:39.528	+0.605	18	336.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.327	+0.39%	5	Medium
11	Andrea Iannone	01:39.597	+0.674	20	339.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.677	+0.754	18	342.5	Soft / Soft	1:39.942	—	9	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.712	+0.789	17	343.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.720	+0.797	19	341.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.850	+0.91%	6	Soft
15	Jack Miller	01:39.816	+0.893	19	339.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.819	+0.896	22	336.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.925	+1.98%	11	Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.872	+0.949	17	338.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Pol Espargaro	01:39.973	+1.050	18	341.4	Soft / Soft	1:40.982	+1.04%	5	Soft
19	Mika Kallio	01:40.034	+1.111	18	338.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Rins	01:40.040	+1.117	21	339.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.156	+1.22%	4	Medium
21	Bradley Smith	01:40.047	+1.124	19	338.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Xavier Simeon	01:40.291	+1.368	18	340.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Scott Redding	01:40.389	+1.466	19	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.234	+1.29%	8	Hard
24	Sylvain Guintoli	01:40.615	+1.692	18	339.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.931	+0.99%	5	Soft
25	Thomas Luthi	01:40.638	+1.715	19	334.3	Soft / Hard	1:41.838	+1.90%	5	Hard
26	Karel Abraham	01:40.739	+1.816	16	337.7	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 16.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:39.708	—	15	338.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.789	+0.081	13	341.1	Soft / Soft	1:40.057	—	5	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:39.836	+0.128	15	342.9	Hard / Hard	1:40.801	+0.74%	7	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:39.944	+0.236	15	338.4	Soft / Soft	1:40.520	+0.46%	11	Soft
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.044	+0.336	15	346.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.607	+0.55%	11	Soft
6	Tito Rabat	01:40.156	+0.448	15	343.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.258	+1.20%	6	Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.236	+0.528	12	338.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.743	+0.69%	5	Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.301	+0.593	14	339.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.826	+0.77%	10	Soft
9	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.321	+0.613	13	335.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.297	+1.24%	9	Soft
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.441	+0.733	16	341.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.690	+0.63%	10	Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.455	+0.747	15	342.6	Hard / Soft	1:40.918	+0.86%	7	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:40.485	+0.777	15	338.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.168	+1.11%	6	Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.552	+0.844	14	334.9	Medium / Medium	1:42.412	+2.35%	6	Hard
14	Alex Rins	01:40.772	+1.064	14	336.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.267	+1.21%	5	Soft
15	Scott Redding	01:40.783	+1.075	14	335.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.861	+1.153	16	337.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.163	+1.11%	10	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.890	+1.182	8	339.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Jack Miller	01:40.907	+1.199	14	337.6	Soft / Soft	1:41.314	+1.26%	6	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:41.070	+1.362	14	337.3	Medium / Hard	1:41.438	+1.38%	6	Hard
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.264	+1.556	14	336.9	Medium / Hard	1:41.423	+1.37%	5	Medium
21	Mika Kallio	01:41.316	+1.608	13	335.1	Medium / Soft	1:42.152	+2.09%	6	Soft
22	Pol Espargaro	01:41.394	+1.686	13	339.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Xavier Simeon	01:41.551	+1.843	7	337.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Karel Abraham	01:41.618	+1.910	13	334.1	Medium / Soft	1:42.074	+2.02%	9	Soft
25	Thomas Luthi	01:41.726	+2.018	11	332.5	Medium / Hard	—			—
26	Sylvain Guintoli	01:42.014	+2.306	12	338.7	Soft / Soft	1:42.830	+2.77%	9	Soft

Q1 · 16.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.217	—	8	342.8	Hard / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.663	+0.446	8	334.9	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:39.732	+0.515	8	337.7	Soft / Soft
4	Hafizh Syahrin	01:39.879	+0.662	8	335.7	Soft / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:39.918	+0.701	8	335.6	Soft / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.010	+0.793	7	338.1	Soft / Soft
7	Bradley Smith	01:40.019	+0.802	8	338.9	Soft / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.058	+0.841	8	339.4	Medium / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:40.178	+0.961	8	341.4	Soft / Soft
10	Scott Redding	01:40.300	+1.083	7	337.0	Soft / Soft
11	Karel Abraham	01:40.449	+1.232	8	338.6	Medium / Soft
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.524	+1.307	6	339.6	Soft / Soft
13	Mika Kallio	01:40.572	+1.355	7	341.9	Medium / Soft
14	Thomas Luthi	01:40.590	+1.373	8	333.1	Soft / Soft
15	Sylvain Guintoli	01:40.834	+1.617	8	338.9	Soft / Soft
16	Xavier Simeon	01:41.369	+2.152	6	338.8	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 16.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.680	—	6	342.8	Soft / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:38.746	+0.066	8	347.7	Medium / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.923	+0.243	8	348.4	Soft / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:39.145	+0.465	8	341.1	Soft / Soft
5	Andrea Iannone	01:39.148	+0.468	8	338.0	Soft / Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.178	+0.498	8	343.2	Soft / Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:39.266	+0.586	8	340.2	Soft / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:39.331	+0.651	7	338.2	Soft / Soft
9	Tito Rabat	01:39.504	+0.824	8	341.4	Soft / Soft
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.556	+0.876	6	343.6	Medium / Soft
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.695	+1.015	8	342.6	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.888	+1.208	8	334.4	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 17.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.571	—	11	346.2	Soft / Soft	1:40.155	+0.05%	8	Soft
2	Tito Rabat	01:39.653	+0.082	11	345.1	Soft / Soft	1:40.449	+0.35%	5	Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:39.656	+0.085	11	339.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:39.805	+0.234	12	345.4	Medium / Hard	1:40.260	+0.16%	10	Hard
5	Johann Zarco	01:39.856	+0.285	11	338.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.676	+0.57%	5	Medium
6	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.865	+0.294	10	342.4	Soft / Soft	1:40.101	—	5	Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.928	+0.357	10	341.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Andrea Iannone	01:39.956	+0.385	10	338.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:40.024	+0.453	12	340.4	Soft / Soft	1:40.498	+0.40%	10	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:40.052	+0.481	12	340.2	Soft / Soft	1:40.588	+0.49%	9	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.099	+0.528	12	345.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.484	+0.38%	10	Soft
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.171	+0.600	12	335.1	Soft / Soft	1:40.543	+0.44%	10	Soft
13	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.191	+0.620	11	342.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.843	+0.74%	5	Soft
14	Mika Kallio	01:40.193	+0.622	12	337.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.642	+0.54%	10	Soft
15	Alex Rins	01:40.283	+0.712	12	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.616	+0.51%	7	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.321	+0.750	9	335.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.340	+0.769	11	334.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.704	+0.60%	6	Soft
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.395	+0.824	11	344.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.934	+0.83%	6	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:40.550	+0.979	10	336.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.157	+1.06%	5	Soft
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.551	+0.980	9	339.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.989	+0.89%	7	Soft
21	Pol Espargaro	01:40.600	+1.029	10	340.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	01:40.871	+1.300	12	337.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.193	+1.09%	9	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:40.997	+1.426	12	334.5	Medium / Soft	1:41.389	+1.29%	9	Soft
24	Sylvain Guintoli	01:41.221	+1.650	11	337.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.507	+1.41%	8	Soft
25	Xavier Simeon	01:41.439	+1.868	12	340.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.774	+1.67%	7	Soft
26	Scott Redding	01:42.064	+2.493	8	336.1	Medium / Hard	—			—

Race · 17.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Lorenzo	40:13.566	25	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.322	—	22	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+4.479	20	24	Hard / Hard	1:40.422	+0.10%	22	Hard
3	Valentino Rossi	+6.098	16	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.554	+0.23%	22	Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	+9.805	13	24	Medium / Soft	1:40.654	+0.33%	22	Soft
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+10.640	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.818	+0.49%	22	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	+10.798	10	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.665	+0.34%	22	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	+13.432	9	24	Soft / Medium	1:40.729	+0.41%	22	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	+15.055	8	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.904	+0.58%	22	Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	+22.057	7	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.128	+0.80%	22	Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	+24.141	6	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.231	+0.91%	21	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+36.560	5	24	Soft / Soft	1:41.758	+1.43%	22	Soft
12	Scott Redding	+38.229	4	24	Hard / Soft	1:41.781	+1.45%	22	Soft
13	Karel Abraham	+81.526	3	24	Medium / Soft	1:43.178	+2.85%	21	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+0.000	2	21	Hard / Hard	1:41.366	+1.04%	18	Hard
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Alex Rins		0	11	Soft / Soft	1:41.882	+1.56%	9	Soft
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	8	Soft / Soft	1:40.336	+0.01%	6	Soft
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	13	Medium / Soft	1:41.860	+1.53%	11	Soft
Retired	Hafizh Syahrin		0	20	Soft / Soft	1:40.958	+0.63%	18	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	17	Soft / Soft	1:40.881	+0.56%	15	Soft
Out on lap 1	Mika Kallio		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Sylvain Guintoli		0	2	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	13	Medium / Soft	1:41.607	+1.28%	11	Soft
Retired	Thomas Luthi		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	18	Soft / Soft	1:40.884	+0.56%	16	Soft
Retired	Xavier Simeon		0	7	Soft / Soft	1:42.587	+2.26%	5	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:40.387	—	+0.344	Medium	5
Cal Crutchlow	1:40.457*	+0.070	+0.729	Medium	3
Hafizh Syahrin	1:40.702*	+0.315	+0.491	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:40.732*	+0.345	+0.292	Medium	4
Daniel Pedrosa	1:40.754	+0.367	+0.089	Medium	9
Pol Espargaro	1:41.163*	+0.776	+0.406	Medium	3
Xavier Simeon	1:41.168*	+0.781	—	Medium	3
Alvaro Bautista	1:41.362*	+0.975	+0.086	Medium	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.418*	+1.031	+0.512	Medium	4
Mika Kallio	1:41.803*	+1.416	+0.462	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marc Marquez	55%	1 ✓
2	Hafizh Syahrin	50%	4
3	Aleix Espargaro	36%	6
4	Alvaro Bautista	16%	12
5	Jack Miller	17%	3
6	Takaaki Nakagami	5%	2 ✓
7	Franco Morbidelli	7%	8
8	Pol Espargaro	4%	9
9	Mika Kallio	3%	13
10	Alex Rins	3%	5
11	Bradley Smith	2%	7
12	Xavier Simeon	0%	16
13	Scott Redding	0%	10
14	Sylvain Guintoli	0%	15
15	Thomas Luthi	0%	14
16	Karel Abraham	—	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Dovizioso	40%	71%	93%	3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	22%	53%	85%	1
3	Maverick Viñales	17%	50%	84%	4
4	Andrea Iannone	4%	35%	68%	5
5	Cal Crutchlow	3%	28%	60%	10
6	Johann Zarco	5%	20%	59%	8
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	11%	43%	7
8	Danilo Petrucci	3%	14%	34%	6
9	Daniel Pedrosa	1%	6%	27%	11
10	Tito Rabat	2%	5%	19%	9
11	Marc Marquez	0%	5%	19%	2
12	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Aleix Espargaro	16	19	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #41

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Lorenzo	1	29%	61%	77%	87%	10%	1
Marc Marquez	2	19%	51%	68%	83%	14%	2
Andrea Dovizioso	3	14%	45%	65%	83%	13%	—
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	40%	63%	86%	9%	6
Andrea Iannone	5	6%	23%	42%	67%	28%	10
Danilo Petrucci	6	5%	21%	39%	70%	23%	8
Valentino Rossi	7	5%	19%	40%	81%	9%	3
Johann Zarco	8	3%	13%	31%	74%	11%	7
Tito Rabat	9	2%	9%	22%	67%	13%	—
Cal Crutchlow	10	1%	5%	14%	49%	28%	4
Daniel Pedrosa	11	1%	4%	12%	55%	12%	5
Takaaki Nakagami	12	1%	3%	10%	48%	10%	—
Jack Miller	13	1%	3%	6%	33%	27%	—
Hafizh Syahrin	14	0%	1%	4%	29%	18%	—
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	25%	—
Bradley Smith	16	0%	1%	3%	21%	12%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	1%	2%	15%	10%	14
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	11
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	25%	—
Scott Redding	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	16%	12
Karel Abraham	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	32%	13
Alvaro Bautista	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	9
Mika Kallio	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	33%	—
Thomas Luthi	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	—
Sylvain Guintoli	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%	—
Xavier Simeon	26	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	95	—
2	Valentino Rossi	72	−23
3	Maverick Viñales	67	−28
4	Andrea Dovizioso	66	−29
5	Johann Zarco	64	−31
6	Danilo Petrucci	63	−32

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

9/25

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

3.544 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Daniel Pedrosa (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet