Round 9 of 19 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2018

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

13.07 – 15.07.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:05.019	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.196	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.776	16
4	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+3.376	13
5	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+5.183	11
6	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+5.780	10
7	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+7.941	9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+12.711	8
9	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+14.428	7
10	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.474	6
11	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+25.809	5
12	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+25.963	4
13	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+29.040	3
14	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+29.325	2
15	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+34.123	1
16	Stefan Bradl	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+38.207	0
17	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+49.369	0
18	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+61.022	0
19	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+76.692	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 28% ✓	Marc Marquez · 28% · from P1	0.92 / 0.92	1.9 / 1.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:21.996	—	+0.210	Soft	28
Valentino Rossi	1:22.052	+0.056	+0.508	Medium	28
Cal Crutchlow	1:22.066	+0.070	+0.729	Soft	7
Jorge Lorenzo	1:22.104	+0.108	+1.158	Medium	28
Danilo Petrucci	1:22.150	+0.154	+0.574	Medium	28
Maverick Viñales	1:22.150	+0.154	+0.292	Soft	28
Andrea Dovizioso	1:22.230	+0.234	+0.226	Medium	28
Alvaro Bautista	1:22.239	+0.243	+0.086	Medium	28
Johann Zarco	1:22.432	+0.436	+0.344	Soft	28
Daniel Pedrosa	1:22.446	+0.450	+0.089	Medium	28
Bradley Smith	1:22.567	+0.571	+0.085	Medium	28
Jack Miller	1:22.675	+0.679	+0.105	Medium	28
Andrea Iannone	1:22.684	+0.688	+0.224	Medium	28
Hafizh Syahrin	1:22.750	+0.754	+0.491	Soft	28
Tito Rabat	1:22.759	+0.763	+0.229	Medium	28
Scott Redding	1:22.924	+0.928	+0.263	Medium	28
Thomas Luthi	1:23.184	+1.188	+0.237	Medium	28
Stefan Bradl	1:23.256	+1.260	+0.530	Medium	28
Karel Abraham	1:24.043	+2.047	—	Medium	28
Xavier Simeon	1:24.357	+2.361	—	Medium	28

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.196 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hafizh Syahrin, from P17 to P11.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Johann Zarco (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:39	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:00:39	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:51		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:07:16	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:53	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Karel Abraham	22	15	+7
Scott Redding	19	13	+6
Bradley Smith	16	10	+6
Andrea Iannone	8	18	−10
Jack Miller	14	21	−7
Andrea Dovizioso	5	7	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	6→2	+4.0
Alvaro Bautista	9→5	+3.0
Bradley Smith	16→10	+2.5
Xavier Simeon	23→19	−2.0
Jack Miller	14→14	−2.8
Andrea Iannone	8→12	−4.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	71%	+0.83%	+0.028	0	1	11.1
Soft	29%	+0.36%	+0.008	1	2	6.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.8 °C

Air

max 24.0 °C

47%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:21.442	—	24	292.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.825	+0.33%	13	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:21.832	+0.390	27	291.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.555	—	21	Soft
3	Valentino Rossi	01:21.964	+0.522	23	289.3	Medium / Medium	1:23.003	+0.54%	10	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:22.152	+0.710	26	293.0	Soft / Medium	1:22.756	+0.24%	19	Medium
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:22.261	+0.819	22	294.5	Soft / Medium	1:22.897	+0.41%	16	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.337	+0.895	23	290.3	Soft / Hard	1:22.763	+0.25%	12	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:22.415	+0.973	22	291.6	Soft / Hard	1:23.280	+0.88%	10	Medium
8	Jorge Lorenzo	01:22.422	+0.980	20	293.0	Soft / Medium	1:22.787	+0.28%	10	Medium
9	Scott Redding	01:22.453	+1.011	22	286.1	Soft / Soft	1:23.084	+0.64%	6	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:22.490	+1.048	22	289.6	Soft / Medium	1:23.071	+0.63%	13	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:22.513	+1.071	25	287.3	Soft / Soft	1:24.078	+1.85%	13	Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:22.554	+1.112	22	288.9	Soft / Medium	1:23.340	+0.95%	12	Medium
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:22.591	+1.149	23	291.1	Soft / Soft	1:22.950	+0.48%	16	Soft
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:22.605	+1.163	25	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.923	+0.45%	16	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:22.674	+1.232	19	286.3	Soft / Medium	1:22.944	+0.47%	5	Medium
16	Tito Rabat	01:22.700	+1.258	20	289.1	Soft / Medium	1:23.300	+0.90%	13	Medium
17	Bradley Smith	01:22.746	+1.304	23	288.3	Soft / Medium	1:23.469	+1.11%	17	Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	01:22.866	+1.424	19	289.6	Soft / Medium	1:23.193	+0.77%	5	Medium
19	Cal Crutchlow	01:22.957	+1.515	22	293.0	Medium / Medium	1:23.757	+1.46%	11	Medium
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:22.969	+1.527	22	287.5	Soft / Medium	1:24.282	+2.09%	13	Medium
21	Thomas Luthi	01:23.350	+1.908	23	284.8	Medium / Medium	1:24.488	+2.34%	12	Soft
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:23.379	+1.937	19	284.5	Medium / Soft	1:24.091	+1.86%	9	Soft
23	Karel Abraham	01:23.393	+1.951	22	288.1	Soft / Soft	1:25.453	+3.51%	12	Medium
24	Mika Kallio	01:23.557	+2.115	19	285.7	Medium / Hard	—			—
25	Xavier Simeon	01:23.578	+2.136	24	286.2	Soft / Medium	1:24.843	+2.77%	17	Medium

FP2 · 13.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:20.885	—	22	294.5	Soft / Soft	1:22.179	+0.21%	6	Soft
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:21.142	+0.257	22	291.0	Medium / Soft	1:22.264	+0.32%	12	Medium
3	Andrea Iannone	01:21.204	+0.319	21	290.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.818	+0.99%	5	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:21.309	+0.424	22	294.5	Soft / Soft	1:22.192	+0.23%	13	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:21.349	+0.464	27	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:22.006	—	19	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:21.384	+0.499	22	292.8	Medium / Soft	1:22.136	+0.16%	13	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.447	+0.562	26	286.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.447	+0.54%	17	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:21.497	+0.612	23	292.2	Soft / Soft	1:23.646	+2.00%	7	Hard
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:21.540	+0.655	23	293.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.842	+1.02%	7	Hard
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:21.568	+0.683	25	290.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.310	+0.37%	11	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:21.616	+0.731	24	288.6	Soft / Soft	1:23.061	+1.29%	5	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:21.680	+0.795	21	292.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.939	+1.14%	10	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.718	+0.833	25	288.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.456	+0.55%	16	Soft
14	Bradley Smith	01:21.743	+0.858	23	288.5	Medium / Soft	1:22.637	+0.77%	13	Soft
15	Tito Rabat	01:21.777	+0.892	23	290.6	Medium / Soft	1:22.296	+0.35%	14	Soft
16	Hafizh Syahrin	01:21.777	+0.892	22	289.6	Soft / Soft	1:22.287	+0.34%	10	Medium
17	Valentino Rossi	01:21.784	+0.899	23	287.5	Medium / Soft	1:22.798	+0.97%	14	Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:21.787	+0.902	23	290.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.499	+0.60%	14	Medium
19	Scott Redding	01:22.003	+1.118	22	285.8	Soft / Soft	1:23.035	+1.26%	10	Soft
20	Daniel Pedrosa	01:22.305	+1.420	25	292.0	Medium / Soft	1:22.712	+0.86%	13	Soft
21	Stefan Bradl	01:22.457	+1.572	22	287.0	Medium / Soft	1:24.152	+2.62%	13	Medium
22	Karel Abraham	01:22.555	+1.670	22	286.7	Medium / Soft	1:24.089	+2.54%	11	Medium
23	Thomas Luthi	01:22.767	+1.882	23	285.0	Medium / Soft	1:23.528	+1.86%	11	Soft
24	Mika Kallio	01:23.194	+2.309	5	288.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
25	Xavier Simeon	01:23.437	+2.552	19	286.7	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP3 · 14.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:20.438	—	23	291.7	Medium / Soft	1:21.622	—	8	Medium
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:20.537	+0.099	22	292.2	Soft / Soft	1:22.230	+0.75%	10	Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:20.615	+0.177	21	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:23.493	+2.29%	7	Medium
4	Valentino Rossi	01:20.719	+0.281	23	292.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.218	+0.73%	11	Medium
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:20.730	+0.292	25	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.026	+0.50%	11	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:20.734	+0.296	24	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:21.784	+0.20%	14	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:20.773	+0.335	23	293.9	Medium / Soft	1:22.039	+0.51%	12	Soft
8	Jorge Lorenzo	01:20.775	+0.337	21	294.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.191	+0.70%	6	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:20.790	+0.352	22	290.2	Medium / Soft	1:22.071	+0.55%	4	Soft
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:20.868	+0.430	24	294.4	Medium / Soft	1:21.978	+0.44%	6	Medium
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:20.915	+0.477	24	296.4	Soft / Soft	1:22.942	+1.62%	12	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.103	+0.665	23	289.7	Medium / Soft	1:22.015	+0.48%	15	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:21.150	+0.712	21	292.4	Medium / Soft	1:23.098	+1.81%	10	Soft
14	Bradley Smith	01:21.279	+0.841	23	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:21.300	+0.862	21	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:22.369	+0.92%	7	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.332	+0.894	27	287.7	Medium / Soft	1:23.074	+1.78%	17	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	01:21.439	+1.001	21	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:22.592	+1.19%	10	Soft
18	Scott Redding	01:21.524	+1.086	19	288.0	Soft / Soft	1:23.111	+1.82%	5	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:21.740	+1.302	22	289.9	Soft / Soft	1:23.047	+1.75%	7	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:21.970	+1.532	20	289.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.974	+1.66%	6	Medium
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:22.122	+1.684	22	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.863	+1.52%	11	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	01:22.138	+1.700	23	284.8	Medium / Soft	1:23.012	+1.70%	11	Soft
23	Karel Abraham	01:22.537	+2.099	21	286.1	Medium / Medium	1:24.130	+3.07%	12	Soft
24	Xavier Simeon	01:22.969	+2.531	21	288.6	Soft / Soft	1:23.697	+2.54%	10	Medium

FP4 · 14.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:21.318	—	18	295.3	Medium / Medium	1:21.887	+0.04%	14	Medium
2	Andrea Iannone	01:21.340	+0.022	20	291.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.852	—	13	Medium
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:21.404	+0.086	16	294.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:21.530	+0.212	15	290.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.862	+0.01%	7	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.536	+0.218	17	289.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Alex Rins	01:21.636	+0.318	17	290.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.914	+0.08%	5	Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:21.640	+0.322	19	291.3	Hard / Medium	1:22.170	+0.39%	14	Soft
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:21.662	+0.344	19	292.3	Hard / Medium	1:22.089	+0.29%	15	Medium
9	Valentino Rossi	01:21.682	+0.364	17	290.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.101	+0.30%	6	Soft
10	Marc Marquez	01:21.688	+0.370	17	291.9	Hard / Soft	1:21.878	+0.03%	7	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:21.706	+0.388	17	291.4	Medium / Medium	1:22.130	+0.34%	11	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:21.757	+0.439	19	290.4	Medium / Medium	1:21.968	+0.14%	15	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:22.043	+0.725	18	285.4	Hard / Medium	1:22.282	+0.53%	12	Medium
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:22.062	+0.744	19	290.9	Medium / Medium	1:23.598	+2.13%	15	Soft
15	Bradley Smith	01:22.178	+0.860	15	288.0	Medium / Medium	1:22.310	+0.56%	11	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:22.209	+0.891	15	292.5	Medium / Medium	1:22.750	+1.10%	10	Medium
17	Tito Rabat	01:22.325	+1.007	17	289.1	Medium / Soft	1:22.983	+1.38%	8	Medium
18	Scott Redding	01:22.334	+1.016	19	285.5	Hard / Medium	1:22.726	+1.07%	11	Medium
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:22.340	+1.022	14	288.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.712	+1.05%	6	Soft
20	Johann Zarco	01:22.471	+1.153	13	289.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.554	+0.86%	7	Soft
21	Stefan Bradl	01:22.930	+1.612	17	289.7	Medium / Medium	1:23.209	+1.66%	13	Medium
22	Thomas Luthi	01:23.289	+1.971	15	282.2	Medium / Medium	1:23.916	+2.52%	11	Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:23.436	+2.118	14	284.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Karel Abraham	01:24.046	+2.728	12	284.1	Medium / Soft	1:24.489	+3.22%	5	Soft

Q1 · 14.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:20.751	—	9	293.9	Medium / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:20.963	+0.212	10	283.9	Hard / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:20.972	+0.221	8	288.3	Medium / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:21.059	+0.308	8	290.8	Soft / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:21.183	+0.432	8	291.3	Medium / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:21.242	+0.491	9	290.4	Medium / Medium
7	Bradley Smith	01:21.287	+0.536	9	289.0	Medium / Soft
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:21.460	+0.709	8	287.1	Medium / Soft
9	Tito Rabat	01:21.546	+0.795	8	288.4	Medium / Soft
10	Scott Redding	01:21.749	+0.998	8	286.3	Medium / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:21.802	+1.051	10	286.4	Medium / Soft
12	Thomas Luthi	01:22.012	+1.261	10	285.8	Medium / Soft
13	Karel Abraham	01:22.159	+1.408	8	286.3	Soft / Soft
14	Xavier Simeon	01:22.709	+1.958	10	287.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 14.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:20.270	—	10	294.7	— / —
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:20.295	+0.025	8	293.9	— / —
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:20.327	+0.057	8	295.4	Soft / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:20.441	+0.171	8	295.0	Medium / Soft
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:20.444	+0.174	9	296.7	Medium / Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:20.532	+0.262	8	292.6	— / —
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:20.675	+0.405	8	294.1	— / —
8	Andrea Iannone	01:20.682	+0.412	8	291.4	— / —
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:20.700	+0.430	7	293.6	Medium / Soft
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:20.831	+0.561	8	294.9	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:20.847	+0.577	9	290.7	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:20.938	+0.668	10	285.4	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 15.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:21.230	—	14	291.3	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:21.397	+0.167	16	291.1	— / —	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:21.463	+0.233	14	295.6	Medium / Medium	1:22.054	+0.32%	6	Medium
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:21.529	+0.299	16	292.4	Medium / Medium	1:21.824	+0.04%	8	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.546	+0.316	4	289.9	— / —	—			—
6	Andrea Iannone	01:21.563	+0.333	13	290.0	— / —	—			—
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:21.567	+0.337	15	292.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Valentino Rossi	01:21.577	+0.347	14	289.3	Medium / Soft	1:21.794	—	6	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:21.614	+0.384	14	290.0	Medium / Soft	1:21.943	+0.18%	7	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.847	+0.617	13	284.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:21.868	+0.638	15	291.4	— / —	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:21.878	+0.648	15	287.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.102	+0.38%	6	Soft
13	Bradley Smith	01:21.920	+0.690	15	288.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.411	+0.75%	8	Medium
14	Scott Redding	01:21.999	+0.769	14	285.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Hafizh Syahrin	01:22.100	+0.870	14	287.7	— / —	—			—
16	Cal Crutchlow	01:22.158	+0.928	14	290.2	— / —	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:22.190	+0.960	14	290.9	Soft / Medium	1:22.748	+1.17%	6	Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:22.192	+0.962	14	289.2	Medium / Soft	1:22.460	+0.81%	7	Soft
19	Thomas Luthi	01:22.404	+1.174	14	282.5	Medium / Medium	1:22.861	+1.30%	7	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:22.425	+1.195	13	289.0	— / —	—			—
21	Stefan Bradl	01:22.430	+1.200	14	288.6	— / —	—			—
22	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.526	+1.296	15	290.0	Medium / Medium	1:22.677	+1.08%	8	Medium
23	Karel Abraham	01:22.575	+1.345	15	285.6	Medium / Soft	1:23.464	+2.04%	6	Soft
24	Xavier Simeon	01:23.151	+1.921	16	287.3	Soft / Medium	1:23.292	+1.83%	5	Medium

Race · 15.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:05.019	25	30	Hard / Soft	1:21.996	—	28	Soft
2	Valentino Rossi	+2.196	20	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.052	+0.07%	28	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	+2.776	16	30	Medium / Soft	1:22.150	+0.19%	28	Soft
4	Danilo Petrucci	+3.376	13	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.150	+0.19%	28	Medium
5	Alvaro Bautista	+5.183	11	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.239	+0.30%	28	Medium
6	Jorge Lorenzo	+5.780	10	30	Soft / Medium	1:22.104	+0.13%	28	Medium
7	Andrea Dovizioso	+7.941	9	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.230	+0.29%	28	Medium
8	Daniel Pedrosa	+12.711	8	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.446	+0.55%	28	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+14.428	7	30	Medium / Soft	1:22.432	+0.53%	28	Soft
10	Bradley Smith	+21.474	6	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.567	+0.70%	28	Medium
11	Hafizh Syahrin	+25.809	5	30	Medium / Soft	1:22.750	+0.92%	28	Soft
12	Andrea Iannone	+25.963	4	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.684	+0.84%	28	Medium
13	Tito Rabat	+29.040	3	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.759	+0.93%	28	Medium
14	Jack Miller	+29.325	2	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.675	+0.83%	28	Medium
15	Scott Redding	+34.123	1	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.924	+1.13%	28	Medium
16	Stefan Bradl	+38.207	0	30	Medium / Medium	1:23.256	+1.54%	28	Medium
17	Thomas Luthi	+49.369	0	30	Medium / Medium	1:23.184	+1.45%	28	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	+61.022	0	30	Medium / Medium	1:24.043	+2.50%	28	Medium
19	Xavier Simeon	+76.692	0	30	Medium / Medium	1:24.357	+2.88%	28	Medium
Out on lap 1	Alex Rins		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	9	Hard / Soft	1:22.066	+0.09%	7	Soft
Out on lap 1	Pol Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	4	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Takaaki Nakagami	1:21.479*	—	+0.359	Medium	3
Andrea Iannone	1:21.740	+0.261	+0.224	Medium	12
Pol Espargaro	1:21.769	+0.290	+0.406	Medium	6
Jorge Lorenzo	1:21.822*	+0.343	+1.158	Medium	3
Danilo Petrucci	1:21.857	+0.378	+0.574	Medium	14
Daniel Pedrosa	1:21.937	+0.458	+0.089	Medium	6
Maverick Viñales	1:21.946	+0.467	+0.292	Medium	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:21.967	+0.488	+0.209	Medium	8
Marc Marquez	1:21.985*	+0.506	+0.210	Medium	4
Alvaro Bautista	1:21.985	+0.506	+0.086	Medium	16
Valentino Rossi	1:21.994	+0.515	+0.508	Medium	8
Jack Miller	1:22.209	+0.730	+0.105	Medium	5
Bradley Smith	1:22.242	+0.763	+0.085	Medium	14
Tito Rabat	1:22.279	+0.800	+0.229	Medium	7
Scott Redding	1:22.363*	+0.884	+0.263	Medium	4
Cal Crutchlow	1:22.456	+0.977	+0.729	Medium	5
Hafizh Syahrin	1:22.709*	+1.230	+0.491	Medium	3
Thomas Luthi	1:22.861	+1.382	+0.237	Medium	9
Stefan Bradl	1:22.987	+1.508	+0.530	Medium	12
Karel Abraham	1:23.112*	+1.633	—	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Dovizioso	55%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	50%	3
3	Jack Miller	35%	5
4	Bradley Smith	17%	7
5	Johann Zarco	17%	4
6	Takaaki Nakagami	6%	2 ✓
7	Pol Espargaro	7%	6
8	Scott Redding	4%	10
9	Tito Rabat	3%	9
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	8
11	Stefan Bradl	2%	11
12	Thomas Luthi	0%	12
13	Karel Abraham	0%	13
14	Xavier Simeon	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Iannone	41%	72%	93%	8
2	Danilo Petrucci	23%	53%	85%	2
3	Cal Crutchlow	17%	50%	84%	7
4	Valentino Rossi	4%	35%	69%	6
5	Alvaro Bautista	3%	27%	58%	9
6	Marc Marquez	5%	20%	57%	1
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	10%	42%	4
8	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	14%	34%	3
9	Alex Rins	1%	6%	26%	11
10	Daniel Pedrosa	2%	5%	20%	10
11	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	6%	20%	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	1%	13%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Aleix Espargaro	13	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	28%	58%	74%	84%	14%	1
Danilo Petrucci	2	18%	46%	62%	75%	23%	4
Jorge Lorenzo	3	16%	47%	67%	87%	10%	6
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	39%	62%	86%	9%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	5	8%	31%	53%	81%	14%	7
Valentino Rossi	6	6%	25%	47%	83%	9%	2
Cal Crutchlow	7	4%	15%	31%	63%	28%	—
Andrea Iannone	8	3%	12%	26%	62%	27%	12
Alvaro Bautista	9	2%	8%	21%	62%	21%	5
Daniel Pedrosa	10	2%	7%	17%	62%	12%	8
Alex Rins	11	1%	4%	11%	46%	27%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	12	1%	3%	9%	46%	15%	—
Johann Zarco	13	0%	3%	7%	41%	10%	9
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	4%	27%	28%	14
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	20%	—
Bradley Smith	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	13%	10
Hafizh Syahrin	17	0%	0%	1%	14%	23%	11
Tito Rabat	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	15%	13
Scott Redding	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	15%	15
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	21%	16
Thomas Luthi	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	30%	17
Karel Abraham	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	33%	18
Xavier Simeon	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	23%	19
Aleix Espargaro	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	25%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	140	—
2	Valentino Rossi	99	−41
3	Maverick Viñales	93	−47
4	Johann Zarco	81	−59
5	Andrea Dovizioso	79	−61
6	Cal Crutchlow	79	−61

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.310 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Jonas Folger vs Marc Marquez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet