Round 10 of 19 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2018

5.403 m · since 1930

03.08 – 05.08.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	41:07.728	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.178	20
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.368	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.902	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+2.958	11
6	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+3.768	10
7	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+6.159	9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+7.479	8
9	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+7.575	7
10	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.326	6
11	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+8.653	5
12	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+16.549	4
13	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+19.603	3
14	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+21.381	2
15	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+23.159	1
16	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+27.673	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+28.311	0
18	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+41.172	0
19	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+42.411	0
20	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+50.941	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Andrea Dovizioso · 29% ✓	Andrea Dovizioso · 29% · from P1	0.95 / 0.95	1.6 / 1.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Lorenzo	1:57.190	—	+1.158	Hard	19
Marc Marquez	1:57.272	+0.082	+0.210	Hard	19
Tito Rabat	1:57.291	+0.101	+0.229	Hard	6
Cal Crutchlow	1:57.296	+0.106	+0.729	Hard	18
Andrea Dovizioso	1:57.306	+0.116	+0.226	Hard	19
Valentino Rossi	1:57.325	+0.135	+0.508	Hard	19
Danilo Petrucci	1:57.358	+0.168	+0.574	Hard	19
Johann Zarco	1:57.415	+0.225	+0.344	Soft	18
Andrea Iannone	1:57.462	+0.272	+0.224	Hard	18
Daniel Pedrosa	1:57.515	+0.325	+0.089	Hard	19
Alex Rins	1:57.530	+0.340	+0.217	Hard	19
Alvaro Bautista	1:57.628	+0.438	+0.086	Soft	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:57.855	+0.665	+0.512	Hard	19
Jack Miller	1:57.879	+0.689	+0.105	Hard	19
Hafizh Syahrin	1:58.107	+0.917	+0.491	Hard	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:58.181	+0.991	+0.209	Hard	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:58.429	+1.239	+0.359	Hard	19
Thomas Luthi	1:58.445	+1.255	+0.237	Hard	19
Karel Abraham	1:58.923	+1.733	—	Hard	19
Xavier Simeon	1:59.154	+1.964	—	Hard	19
Sylvain Guintoli	1:59.174	+1.984	—	Hard	19

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/21

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.178 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Andrea Iannone (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:22	Bradley Smith	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:22	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:22	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:37		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:09:34	Bradley Smith	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:12:56	Scott Redding	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:29	Tito Rabat	Retired	Retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Dovizioso (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Scott Redding	24	18	+6
Xavier Simeon	25	21	+4
Thomas Luthi	21	17	+4
Andrea Iannone	8	9	−1
Takaaki Nakagami	19	20	−1
Franco Morbidelli	13	14	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Lorenzo	4→2	+2.8
Alvaro Bautista	14→9	+2.2
Aleix Espargaro	23→15	+2.0
Andrea Iannone	8→10	−2.7
Alex Rins	9→11	−3.0
Sylvain Guintoli	20→19	−4.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	87%	+0.43%	−0.003	1	3	10.8
Soft	13%	+0.28%	−0.026	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.5 °C

Air

max 29.2 °C

38%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 37 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 03.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:56.647	—	16	305.4	Medium / Medium	1:58.320	+0.66%	6	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.720	+0.073	16	314.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:56.828	+0.181	18	307.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.831	+0.184	17	306.2	Medium / Medium	1:57.808	+0.22%	5	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:56.888	+0.241	16	306.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Andrea Iannone	01:57.079	+0.432	17	305.4	Medium / Medium	1:59.735	+1.86%	4	Medium
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:57.289	+0.642	17	309.4	Medium / Medium	1:57.546	—	5	Medium
8	Stefan Bradl	01:57.291	+0.644	18	311.8	Medium / Medium	1:58.201	+0.56%	5	Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:57.321	+0.674	17	305.7	Medium / Hard	1:58.714	+0.99%	5	Medium
10	Tito Rabat	01:57.325	+0.678	17	310.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.386	+0.739	17	310.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:57.426	+0.779	14	307.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.428	+0.781	15	305.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Maverick Viñales	01:57.764	+1.117	18	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:58.561	+0.86%	7	Medium
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.938	+1.291	18	311.5	Medium / Medium	1:59.478	+1.64%	5	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:58.027	+1.380	18	304.6	Medium / Medium	1:58.692	+0.98%	5	Medium
17	Alex Rins	01:58.032	+1.385	16	305.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Pol Espargaro	01:58.098	+1.451	16	309.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Sylvain Guintoli	01:58.114	+1.467	18	305.1	Medium / Soft	2:00.352	+2.39%	8	Medium
20	Thomas Luthi	01:58.226	+1.579	16	302.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Bradley Smith	01:58.238	+1.591	15	305.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.299	+1.652	16	303.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Scott Redding	01:58.497	+1.850	15	303.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.635	+1.988	15	305.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
25	Karel Abraham	01:59.052	+2.405	13	306.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
26	Xavier Simeon	01:59.863	+3.216	14	304.9	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 03.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.976	—	18	311.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.099	+0.123	16	310.4	Medium / Soft	1:58.602	+1.07%	5	Hard
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.144	+0.168	19	308.8	Hard / Soft	1:57.964	+0.53%	12	Hard
4	Hafizh Syahrin	01:56.200	+0.224	14	308.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.218	+0.242	16	311.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:56.392	+0.416	17	309.3	Medium / Soft	1:57.868	+0.44%	6	Hard
7	Valentino Rossi	01:56.480	+0.504	17	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.861	+0.44%	5	Medium
8	Tito Rabat	01:56.521	+0.545	18	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	01:56.535	+0.559	16	307.4	Medium / Soft	1:58.164	+0.70%	6	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	01:56.635	+0.659	18	309.6	Hard / Hard	1:57.348	—	5	Hard
11	Andrea Iannone	01:56.644	+0.668	18	306.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:56.661	+0.685	19	309.3	Medium / Soft	1:57.505	+0.13%	5	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:56.915	+0.939	16	309.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.014	+1.038	17	311.6	Hard / Hard	1:57.503	+0.13%	5	Hard
15	Jorge Lorenzo	01:57.205	+1.229	18	310.8	Hard / Medium	1:57.422	+0.06%	6	Medium
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.417	+1.441	15	307.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:57.473	+1.497	15	310.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Stefan Bradl	01:57.479	+1.503	18	310.2	Hard / Hard	1:57.772	+0.36%	5	Hard
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.498	+1.522	15	306.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Bradley Smith	01:57.506	+1.530	15	308.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.647	+1.671	18	306.9	Hard / Soft	1:58.562	+1.04%	4	Hard
22	Thomas Luthi	01:57.729	+1.753	16	304.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Scott Redding	01:57.941	+1.965	13	303.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Karel Abraham	01:58.127	+2.151	17	309.4	Hard / Hard	1:59.202	+1.58%	10	Hard
25	Xavier Simeon	01:58.453	+2.477	16	308.0	Medium / Hard	—			—
26	Sylvain Guintoli	01:58.617	+2.641	17	307.5	Hard / Hard	1:58.999	+1.41%	6	Hard

FP3 · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Valentino Rossi	01:55.175	—	17	309.5	Medium / Soft	1:57.049	+0.97%	5	Hard
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.261	+0.086	16	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.326	+0.151	16	312.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:55.458	+0.283	17	309.6	Hard / Soft	1:55.928	—	5	Medium
5	Andrea Iannone	01:55.499	+0.324	18	306.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.517	+0.342	18	311.5	Hard / Soft	1:56.881	+0.82%	7	Medium
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.617	+0.442	16	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:55.628	+0.453	17	306.6	Medium / Soft	1:56.548	+0.54%	5	Medium
9	Tito Rabat	01:55.663	+0.488	15	312.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.721	+0.546	16	314.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:55.776	+0.601	16	308.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.810	+0.635	14	310.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:55.841	+0.666	18	308.3	Medium / Soft	1:56.622	+0.60%	5	Medium
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.916	+0.741	19	307.9	Medium / Soft	1:56.921	+0.86%	5	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.933	+0.758	14	304.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Hafizh Syahrin	01:56.013	+0.838	14	306.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:56.109	+0.934	17	306.4	Medium / Soft	1:56.927	+0.86%	7	Hard
18	Pol Espargaro	01:56.280	+1.105	16	308.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Bradley Smith	01:56.486	+1.311	16	306.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Stefan Bradl	01:56.686	+1.511	17	310.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Scott Redding	01:56.902	+1.727	14	305.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Karel Abraham	01:56.964	+1.789	15	306.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.008	+1.833	16	304.8	Medium / Soft	1:57.733	+1.56%	5	Medium
24	Sylvain Guintoli	01:57.204	+2.029	14	306.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Thomas Luthi	01:57.322	+2.147	17	303.2	Hard / Hard	1:58.052	+1.83%	5	Hard
26	Xavier Simeon	01:57.560	+2.385	14	309.1	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:56.149	—	14	310.9	Hard / Hard	1:56.884	—	10	Hard
2	Andrea Iannone	01:56.658	+0.509	13	305.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
3	Alex Rins	01:56.779	+0.630	13	305.7	Hard / Hard	1:57.088	+0.18%	5	Hard
4	Jack Miller	01:56.868	+0.719	11	309.0	Hard / Hard	1:57.329	+0.38%	5	Hard
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.901	+0.752	13	308.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.969	+0.820	12	310.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:56.971	+0.822	14	307.3	Medium / Soft	1:57.342	+0.39%	10	Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.002	+0.853	13	309.5	Hard / Hard	1:57.305	+0.36%	5	Hard
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.061	+0.912	12	310.8	Hard / Hard	1:57.875	+0.85%	5	Hard
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.137	+0.988	12	313.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.145	+0.996	13	306.6	Hard / Hard	1:57.696	+0.70%	4	Hard
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:57.200	+1.051	11	310.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.206	+1.057	9	305.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
14	Tito Rabat	01:57.263	+1.114	12	311.0	Hard / Hard	1:57.660	+0.66%	10	Hard
15	Johann Zarco	01:57.290	+1.141	14	306.0	Hard / Hard	1:57.559	+0.58%	10	Hard
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.326	+1.177	12	306.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
17	Maverick Viñales	01:57.464	+1.315	11	308.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.473	+1.324	12	308.0	Hard / Hard	1:58.107	+1.05%	5	Hard
19	Stefan Bradl	01:57.510	+1.361	13	311.6	Hard / Hard	1:57.655	+0.66%	5	Hard
20	Scott Redding	01:57.564	+1.415	12	304.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:57.715	+1.566	9	307.6	Hard / Hard	1:59.300	+2.07%	7	Hard
22	Thomas Luthi	01:57.814	+1.665	9	304.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
23	Pol Espargaro	01:57.951	+1.802	11	309.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
24	Bradley Smith	01:58.100	+1.951	6	304.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
25	Sylvain Guintoli	01:58.375	+2.226	11	304.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
26	Xavier Simeon	01:58.635	+2.486	10	307.5	Medium / Hard	1:58.736	+1.58%	4	Hard

Q1 · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:55.538	—	7	311.5	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:55.852	+0.314	7	307.6	Medium / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.029	+0.491	7	308.3	Hard / Soft
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.031	+0.493	6	311.1	Hard / Soft
5	Bradley Smith	01:56.218	+0.680	6	307.1	Medium / Soft
6	Hafizh Syahrin	01:56.285	+0.747	6	307.3	Hard / Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:56.316	+0.778	5	308.2	Hard / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:56.330	+0.792	7	309.7	Hard / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:56.353	+0.815	7	311.0	Medium / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.512	+0.974	7	304.8	Hard / Soft
11	Sylvain Guintoli	01:57.037	+1.499	7	308.3	Medium / Soft
12	Thomas Luthi	01:57.208	+1.670	7	306.0	Hard / Soft
13	Karel Abraham	01:57.217	+1.679	5	308.6	Hard / Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.250	+1.712	4	309.0	Medium / Soft
15	Scott Redding	01:57.438	+1.900	6	304.2	Medium / Soft
16	Xavier Simeon	01:58.048	+2.510	7	307.9	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.689	—	7	314.7	Hard / Soft
2	Valentino Rossi	01:54.956	+0.267	7	309.9	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:54.961	+0.272	7	310.7	Hard / Soft
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.038	+0.349	6	310.2	Medium / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.055	+0.366	7	311.7	Hard / Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.203	+0.514	7	312.1	Hard / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:55.221	+0.532	7	307.7	Medium / Soft
8	Andrea Iannone	01:55.270	+0.581	7	308.6	Medium / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:55.431	+0.742	7	308.3	Medium / Soft
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.474	+0.785	7	311.5	Hard / Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:55.686	+0.997	7	311.5	Medium / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:55.823	+1.134	7	308.5	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 05.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.177	—	9	310.9	Hard / Hard	1:57.084	+0.41%	7	Hard
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.273	+0.096	9	307.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:56.290	+0.113	10	305.9	Hard / Hard	1:56.801	+0.17%	7	Hard
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.336	+0.159	10	306.9	Hard / Medium	1:56.608	—	6	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:56.386	+0.209	10	309.2	Medium / Soft	1:56.844	+0.20%	8	Soft
6	Andrea Iannone	01:56.401	+0.224	8	301.5	Medium / Hard	—			—
7	Hafizh Syahrin	01:56.637	+0.460	10	305.5	Medium / Hard	1:58.096	+1.28%	8	Hard
8	Alex Rins	01:56.696	+0.519	10	303.1	Medium / Hard	1:56.904	+0.25%	6	Hard
9	Jack Miller	01:56.733	+0.556	9	304.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	01:56.788	+0.611	9	304.5	Medium / Hard	—			—
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.827	+0.650	9	306.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.896	+0.719	8	306.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
13	Tito Rabat	01:56.969	+0.792	9	311.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.007	+0.830	10	305.8	Medium / Hard	1:58.032	+1.22%	6	Hard
15	Johann Zarco	01:57.131	+0.954	10	301.7	Medium / Soft	1:57.562	+0.82%	8	Soft
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.185	+1.008	9	304.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:57.242	+1.065	10	303.2	Hard / Hard	1:57.656	+0.90%	7	Hard
18	Bradley Smith	01:57.289	+1.112	10	302.1	Medium / Soft	1:57.733	+0.97%	7	Soft
19	Scott Redding	01:57.405	+1.228	10	301.3	Hard / Hard	1:58.998	+2.05%	5	Hard
20	Thomas Luthi	01:57.663	+1.486	10	301.0	Hard / Medium	1:58.024	+1.21%	8	Medium
21	Pol Espargaro	01:57.797	+1.620	8	305.9	Medium / Hard	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:57.925	+1.748	10	306.9	Hard / Hard	1:58.063	+1.25%	7	Hard
23	Sylvain Guintoli	01:57.957	+1.780	10	306.0	Medium / Hard	1:58.333	+1.48%	6	Hard
24	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.037	+1.860	8	300.0	Medium / Hard	—			—
25	Xavier Simeon	01:58.212	+2.035	10	305.1	Medium / Soft	1:58.881	+1.95%	7	Soft
26	Karel Abraham	01:58.493	+2.316	10	304.5	Hard / Hard	1:58.998	+2.05%	7	Hard

Race · 05.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	41:07.728	25	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.306	+0.10%	19	Hard
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+0.178	20	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.190	—	19	Hard
3	Marc Marquez	+0.368	16	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.272	+0.07%	19	Hard
4	Valentino Rossi	+2.902	13	21	Medium / Hard	1:57.325	+0.12%	19	Hard
5	Cal Crutchlow	+2.958	11	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.296	+0.09%	18	Hard
6	Danilo Petrucci	+3.768	10	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.358	+0.14%	19	Hard
7	Johann Zarco	+6.159	9	21	Medium / Soft	1:57.415	+0.19%	18	Soft
8	Daniel Pedrosa	+7.479	8	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.515	+0.28%	19	Hard
9	Alvaro Bautista	+7.575	7	21	Medium / Soft	1:57.628	+0.37%	19	Soft
10	Andrea Iannone	+8.326	6	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.462	+0.23%	18	Hard
11	Alex Rins	+8.653	5	21	Medium / Hard	1:57.530	+0.29%	19	Hard
12	Jack Miller	+16.549	4	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.879	+0.59%	19	Hard
13	Franco Morbidelli	+19.603	3	21	Hard / Hard	1:57.855	+0.57%	19	Hard
14	Hafizh Syahrin	+21.381	2	21	Hard / Hard	1:58.107	+0.78%	19	Hard
15	Aleix Espargaro	+23.159	1	21	Hard / Hard	1:58.181	+0.85%	19	Hard
16	Thomas Luthi	+27.673	0	21	Hard / Hard	1:58.445	+1.07%	19	Hard
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+28.311	0	21	Hard / Hard	1:58.429	+1.06%	19	Hard
18	Karel Abraham	+41.172	0	21	Hard / Hard	1:58.923	+1.48%	19	Hard
19	Sylvain Guintoli	+42.411	0	21	Medium / Hard	1:59.174	+1.69%	19	Hard
20	Xavier Simeon	+50.941	0	21	Hard / Hard	1:59.154	+1.68%	19	Hard
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	1	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Maverick Viñales		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Scott Redding		0	5	Hard / Hard	—			—
Out on lap 1	Stefan Bradl		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	8	Medium / Hard	1:57.291	+0.09%	6	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:56.428*	—	+0.105	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:56.548	+0.120	+0.344	Medium	5
Daniel Pedrosa	1:57.103*	+0.675	+0.089	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	1:57.641*	+1.213	+0.406	Medium	3
Bradley Smith	1:57.726	+1.298	+0.085	Medium	5
Tito Rabat	1:57.786*	+1.358	+0.229	Medium	3
Valentino Rossi	1:58.033	+1.605	+0.508	Medium	7
Alvaro Bautista	1:58.349	+1.921	+0.086	Medium	5
Xavier Simeon	1:59.320*	+2.892	—	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	56%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	50%	14
3	Jack Miller	35%	7
4	Alvaro Bautista	17%	4
5	Franco Morbidelli	17%	3
6	Hafizh Syahrin	7%	6
7	Alex Rins	7%	2 ✓
8	Pol Espargaro	4%	9
9	Bradley Smith	3%	5
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	8
11	Scott Redding	2%	15
12	Karel Abraham	0%	13
13	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	10
14	Sylvain Guintoli	0%	11
15	Thomas Luthi	0%	12
16	Xavier Simeon	—	16

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Valentino Rossi	40%	71%	92%	2
2	Danilo Petrucci	23%	54%	86%	6
3	Jorge Lorenzo	17%	50%	84%	4
4	Marc Marquez	4%	35%	69%	3
5	Andrea Iannone	3%	27%	58%	8
6	Daniel Pedrosa	6%	21%	58%	10
7	Cal Crutchlow	1%	10%	42%	5
8	Johann Zarco	3%	14%	35%	7
9	Tito Rabat	1%	6%	26%	11
10	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	5%	20%	1
11	Maverick Viñales	0%	6%	21%	12
12	Alex Rins	0%	1%	13%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Pol Espargaro	19	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Andrea Dovizioso	1	29%	59%	75%	85%	14%	1
Valentino Rossi	2	24%	56%	75%	89%	9%	4
Marc Marquez	3	14%	45%	65%	83%	14%	3
Jorge Lorenzo	4	12%	40%	62%	86%	10%	2
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	24%	43%	68%	28%	5
Danilo Petrucci	6	5%	21%	40%	69%	23%	6
Johann Zarco	7	4%	18%	39%	79%	10%	7
Andrea Iannone	8	2%	10%	25%	60%	27%	10
Alex Rins	9	1%	7%	18%	55%	29%	11
Daniel Pedrosa	10	1%	6%	16%	63%	12%	8
Tito Rabat	11	1%	4%	13%	55%	14%	—
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	3%	10%	49%	9%	—
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	2%	6%	43%	9%	13
Alvaro Bautista	14	0%	1%	4%	28%	20%	9
Bradley Smith	15	0%	1%	4%	27%	13%	—
Hafizh Syahrin	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	21%	14
Jack Miller	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	27%	12
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	21%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	21%	17
Sylvain Guintoli	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	19
Thomas Luthi	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	28%	16
Karel Abraham	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	32%	18
Aleix Espargaro	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	25%	15
Scott Redding	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	—
Xavier Simeon	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	21%	20
Pol Espargaro	26	0%	0%	0%	1%	21%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,401 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Raul Fernandez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Raul Fernandez +0.24%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.42%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pol Espargaro +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.05%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Franco Morbidelli +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.39%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.30%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.10%	Cal Crutchlow +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Andrea Iannone +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez	Daniel Pedrosa +0.44%	Valentino Rossi +0.45%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Maverick Viñales +0.48%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

81/100

Position index

40%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 44% and 100%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	165	—
2	Valentino Rossi	119	−46
3	Maverick Viñales	109	−56
4	Andrea Dovizioso	88	−77
5	Johann Zarco	88	−77
6	Jorge Lorenzo	85	−80

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

226

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

17/22

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

12.438 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Scott Redding (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2020Brad BinderKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda
2015Jorge LorenzoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/20	15%
2025	3/21	14%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	3/23	13%
2018	5/25	20%
2017	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet