MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 5 of 18 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2017

Le Mans France

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969
19.05 – 21.05.2017
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Maverick ViñalesYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP43:29.79325
2Johann ZarcoYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+3.13420
3Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+7.71716
4Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+11.22313
5Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+13.51911
6Jorge LorenzoDucatiDucati Team+24.00210
7Jonas FolgerYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+25.7339
8Jack MillerHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+32.6038
9Loris BazDucatiReale Avintia Racing+45.7847
10Andrea IannoneSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+48.3326
11Tito RabatHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+50.0365
12Pol EspargaroKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+52.6614
13Bradley SmithKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+53.1793
14Sam LowesApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+55.4322
15Sylvain GuintoliSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+66.8781
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0
DNFAlvaro BautistaDucatiPull&Bear Aspar TeamOut on lap 10
DNFDanilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFHector BarberaDucatiReale Avintia RacingRetired0
DNFKarel AbrahamDucatiPull&Bear Aspar TeamRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFScott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFValentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Maverick Viñales · 30% ✓Maverick Viñales · 30% · from P10.66 / 0.663.4 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

44
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
0/28
Laps led by the winner
3.134 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P22 to P11.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Valentino Rossi (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:56Alvaro BautistaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:02:29Jump startJump start
Race14:06:01Hector BarberaRetiredRetired
Race14:09:12Karel AbrahamRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:12:42Scott ReddingRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:27:46Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:29:23Danilo PetrucciRetiredRetired
Race14:37:26Aleix EspargaroRetiredRetired
Race14:44:06Valentino RossiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
20.3 °C
Air
max 20.8 °C
49%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
15 km/h
Wind
gusts 32 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 19.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jack Miller01:37.467—19291.8
2Marc Marquez01:38.755+1.28817293.5
3Johann Zarco01:39.248+1.78120293.2
4Cal Crutchlow01:39.607+2.14014293.5
5Loris Baz01:40.427+2.96017287.9
6Karel Abraham01:40.528+3.06114293.4
7Bradley Smith01:40.817+3.3507288.0
8Valentino Rossi01:40.894+3.42717291.9
9Alvaro Bautista01:41.024+3.55721298.6
10Maverick Viñales01:41.307+3.84014297.8
11Andrea Iannone01:41.562+4.09518295.8
12Jonas Folger01:41.644+4.17712287.9
13Daniel Pedrosa01:41.854+4.38717274.3
14Andrea Dovizioso01:41.871+4.40410298.6
15Danilo Petrucci01:41.887+4.42019294.6
16Jorge Lorenzo01:41.947+4.48016287.2
17Scott Redding01:42.040+4.57315294.9
18Tito Rabat01:42.094+4.62719293.4
19Sam Lowes01:42.243+4.7767293.6
20Sylvain Guintoli01:42.891+5.42421292.5
21Hector Barbera01:42.953+5.48617300.3
22Aleix Espargaro01:43.114+5.6478287.1
23Pol Espargaro01:43.519+6.05210294.7
FP2 · 19.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:41.673—20297.9
2Marc Marquez01:41.716+0.04319289.6
3Danilo Petrucci01:41.906+0.23317293.9
4Scott Redding01:41.925+0.25221294.5
5Andrea Iannone01:42.078+0.40520294.9
6Alvaro Bautista01:42.625+0.95221297.1
7Jack Miller01:42.729+1.05616288.3
8Maverick Viñales01:42.894+1.22118297.7
9Sam Lowes01:42.998+1.32519288.8
10Valentino Rossi01:43.006+1.33320290.2
11Aleix Espargaro01:43.177+1.50416287.9
12Loris Baz01:43.250+1.57719286.0
13Cal Crutchlow01:43.340+1.66714293.0
14Johann Zarco01:44.177+2.50421291.2
15Jorge Lorenzo01:44.276+2.60321283.4
16Sylvain Guintoli01:44.572+2.89917293.5
17Tito Rabat01:44.678+3.00521288.0
18Hector Barbera01:45.074+3.40119295.3
19Jonas Folger01:45.119+3.44618287.0
20Pol Espargaro01:45.622+3.94913296.0
21Daniel Pedrosa01:45.804+4.13117282.9
22Karel Abraham01:47.127+5.4549280.5
23Bradley Smith01:47.701+6.02811277.7
FP3 · 20.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Scott Redding01:35.674—18302.6
2Cal Crutchlow01:36.035+0.36112299.4
3Jack Miller01:36.122+0.44810291.2
4Valentino Rossi01:36.185+0.51122297.1
5Marc Marquez01:36.354+0.68016294.0
6Karel Abraham01:36.497+0.82313296.6
7Pol Espargaro01:36.612+0.93817304.3
8Maverick Viñales01:36.616+0.94215298.1
9Loris Baz01:36.752+1.07817291.7
10Bradley Smith01:36.805+1.13115294.7
11Alvaro Bautista01:36.821+1.14721300.9
12Andrea Dovizioso01:36.823+1.14918301.3
13Sam Lowes01:36.839+1.16516293.6
14Danilo Petrucci01:36.873+1.19918299.1
15Johann Zarco01:37.464+1.79018297.1
16Jonas Folger01:37.610+1.93613298.7
17Andrea Iannone01:37.772+2.09818295.9
18Tito Rabat01:38.888+3.21422294.2
19Sylvain Guintoli01:38.931+3.25715299.7
20Aleix Espargaro01:39.730+4.0569292.1
21Hector Barbera01:40.373+4.69919301.9
22Daniel Pedrosa01:41.354+5.68017289.1
23Jorge Lorenzo01:41.608+5.93420291.1
FP4 · 20.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:32.906—17302.7
2Daniel Pedrosa01:32.963+0.05717307.4
3Valentino Rossi01:33.052+0.14616300.2
4Johann Zarco01:33.286+0.38019302.2
5Cal Crutchlow01:33.361+0.45516303.9
6Alvaro Bautista01:33.388+0.48215303.5
7Marc Marquez01:33.438+0.53213303.9
8Scott Redding01:33.479+0.57314303.7
9Aleix Espargaro01:33.553+0.64712301.4
10Andrea Dovizioso01:33.587+0.6819306.9
11Danilo Petrucci01:33.639+0.73312303.6
12Andrea Iannone01:33.907+1.00114305.8
13Jonas Folger01:33.959+1.05310303.2
14Hector Barbera01:33.976+1.07017311.7
15Pol Espargaro01:34.152+1.24615307.2
16Sam Lowes01:34.270+1.3648299.1
17Tito Rabat01:34.272+1.36616301.3
18Jorge Lorenzo01:34.344+1.43812306.2
19Loris Baz01:34.396+1.4909297.1
20Karel Abraham01:34.594+1.68815302.8
21Bradley Smith01:34.764+1.85813301.2
22Jack Miller01:34.927+2.0215301.3
23Sylvain Guintoli01:35.183+2.27716303.8
Q1 · 20.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:32.298—8307.3
2Johann Zarco01:32.367+0.06910301.3
3Daniel Pedrosa01:32.415+0.1179305.2
4Alvaro Bautista01:32.484+0.1869305.8
5Jonas Folger01:32.695+0.3978302.3
6Jorge Lorenzo01:32.830+0.5328305.3
7Andrea Iannone01:32.844+0.5469304.3
8Aleix Espargaro01:33.187+0.8896300.8
9Danilo Petrucci01:33.231+0.9337303.0
10Hector Barbera01:33.233+0.9358311.3
11Sam Lowes01:33.817+1.5198296.7
12Tito Rabat01:33.875+1.5778303.3
13Sylvain Guintoli01:34.082+1.7848303.6
Q2 · 20.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:31.994—8303.0
2Valentino Rossi01:32.100+0.1068302.1
3Johann Zarco01:32.229+0.2356300.0
4Cal Crutchlow01:32.300+0.3068302.9
5Marc Marquez01:32.493+0.4999300.6
6Andrea Dovizioso01:32.726+0.7327307.5
7Scott Redding01:33.119+1.1257306.6
8Pol Espargaro01:33.399+1.4057302.4
9Karel Abraham01:33.517+1.5238303.7
10Bradley Smith01:33.629+1.6359296.4
11Jack Miller01:33.756+1.7625299.3
12Loris Baz01:33.955+1.9615298.8
Warm Up · 21.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:33.049—13297.8
2Jonas Folger01:33.070+0.02112301.4
3Johann Zarco01:33.202+0.15313302.6
4Maverick Viñales01:33.210+0.16112301.0
5Danilo Petrucci01:33.241+0.19213304.4
6Scott Redding01:33.309+0.26013305.5
7Andrea Dovizioso01:33.344+0.29511304.9
8Valentino Rossi01:33.353+0.30412299.9
9Aleix Espargaro01:33.357+0.30812299.8
10Andrea Iannone01:33.434+0.38512302.4
11Daniel Pedrosa01:33.434+0.38512301.4
12Alvaro Bautista01:33.436+0.38713305.8
13Cal Crutchlow01:33.637+0.58811298.3
14Hector Barbera01:33.750+0.70113309.2
15Jorge Lorenzo01:33.751+0.70212303.5
16Tito Rabat01:33.800+0.75113297.5
17Jack Miller01:33.858+0.80911295.9
18Bradley Smith01:34.127+1.07813294.9
19Loris Baz01:34.250+1.20111297.7
20Pol Espargaro01:34.269+1.22011301.8
21Sam Lowes01:34.416+1.36712294.6
22Sylvain Guintoli01:34.502+1.45312297.1
23Karel Abraham01:34.776+1.7277303.6
Race · 21.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Maverick Viñales43:29.7932528
2Johann Zarco+3.1342028
3Daniel Pedrosa+7.7171628
4Andrea Dovizioso+11.2231328
5Cal Crutchlow+13.5191128
6Jorge Lorenzo+24.0021028
7Jonas Folger+25.733928
8Jack Miller+32.603828
9Loris Baz+45.784728
10Andrea Iannone+48.332628
11Tito Rabat+50.036528
12Pol Espargaro+52.661428
13Bradley Smith+53.179328
14Sam Lowes+55.432228
15Sylvain Guintoli+66.878128
RetiredAleix Espargaro023
Out on lap 1Alvaro Bautista00
RetiredDanilo Petrucci017
RetiredHector Barbera03
RetiredKarel Abraham05
RetiredMarc Marquez017
RetiredScott Redding07
RetiredValentino Rossi027

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Maverick Viñales130%63%77%87%11%1
Valentino Rossi224%57%76%89%9%—
Johann Zarco314%41%58%75%21%2
Cal Crutchlow49%29%47%66%30%5
Marc Marquez57%30%53%80%15%—
Andrea Dovizioso65%23%45%79%13%4
Scott Redding74%20%40%78%13%—
Pol Espargaro83%12%28%67%21%12
Karel Abraham92%7%17%53%33%—
Bradley Smith101%6%18%64%12%13
Jack Miller111%3%10%45%32%8
Loris Baz121%3%9%45%22%9
Daniel Pedrosa130%3%8%44%10%3
Alvaro Bautista140%2%5%31%19%—
Jonas Folger150%1%4%29%11%7
Jorge Lorenzo160%1%2%24%9%6
Andrea Iannone170%0%1%11%30%10
Aleix Espargaro180%0%1%11%20%—
Danilo Petrucci190%0%1%8%23%—
Hector Barbera200%0%0%6%14%—
Sam Lowes210%0%0%3%31%14
Tito Rabat220%0%0%3%15%11
Sylvain Guintoli230%0%0%2%16%15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · P. EspargaroS2 · ZarcoS3 · MartinS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.69
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

44
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
28/28
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
10.654 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Eugene Laverty (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Jorge MartinAprilia
  • 2025Johann ZarcoHonda
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2124%
20256/2227%
20246/2227%
20238/2138%
20227/2429%
20216/2227%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet