MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
ca es
Round 4 of 18 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2017

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984
05.05 – 07.05.2017
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team45:26.82725
2Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+6.13620
3Jorge LorenzoDucatiDucati Team+14.76716
4Johann ZarcoYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+17.60113
5Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+22.91311
6Maverick ViñalesYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+24.55610
7Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+24.9599
8Jonas FolgerYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+27.7218
9Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+31.2337
10Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+38.6826
11Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+40.9795
12Hector BarberaDucatiReale Avintia Racing+43.1994
13Loris BazDucatiReale Avintia Racing+43.2113
14Bradley SmithKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+47.9642
15Karel AbrahamDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+51.2791
16Sam LowesApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+68.8850
17Takuya TsudaSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+87.4500
DNFAlvaro BautistaDucatiPull&Bear Aspar TeamRetired0
DNFAndrea IannoneSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTARRetired0
DNFCal CrutchlowHondaLCR HondaRetired0
DNFJack MillerHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0
DNFPol EspargaroKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFTito RabatHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Daniel Pedrosa · 31% ✓Daniel Pedrosa · 31% · from P10.86 / 0.862.1 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

39
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Daniel Pedrosa
6.136 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Jorge Lorenzo (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:53Jump startJump start
Race14:09:25Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:09:25Alvaro BautistaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:10:34Cal CrutchlowCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:10:42Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:11:56Alvaro BautistaRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:16:42Tito RabatCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:17:37Andrea IannoneCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
27.8 °C
Air
max 28.1 °C
23%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
15 km/h
Wind
gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:51.648—17276.2
2Cal Crutchlow01:51.650+0.00212275.2
3Jack Miller01:51.807+0.15912274.5
4Andrea Dovizioso01:51.830+0.1828278.7
5Marc Marquez01:51.962+0.31417276.4
6Jonas Folger01:52.249+0.60116275.8
7Aleix Espargaro01:52.350+0.70212274.8
8Danilo Petrucci01:52.353+0.70517276.9
9Jorge Lorenzo01:52.359+0.71113280.2
10Maverick Viñales01:52.555+0.90717276.6
11Scott Redding01:52.684+1.03615278.0
12Andrea Iannone01:52.834+1.18615272.7
13Johann Zarco01:52.917+1.26917276.5
14Pol Espargaro01:53.102+1.45418275.4
15Bradley Smith01:53.204+1.55613274.1
16Valentino Rossi01:53.263+1.61518273.3
17Loris Baz01:53.375+1.72715270.6
18Sam Lowes01:53.752+2.1048272.0
19Tito Rabat01:53.885+2.23717273.3
20Alvaro Bautista01:54.087+2.43917276.9
21Takuya Tsuda01:54.316+2.66819270.6
RetiredHector Barbera—00.0
RetiredKarel Abraham—00.0
FP2 · 05.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:39.420—20285.6
2Jack Miller01:39.964+0.54420283.9
3Cal Crutchlow01:40.045+0.62519285.3
4Jorge Lorenzo01:40.291+0.87120288.7
5Danilo Petrucci01:40.378+0.95819286.5
6Maverick Viñales01:40.379+0.95916284.0
7Alvaro Bautista01:40.392+0.97221288.2
8Andrea Dovizioso01:40.428+1.00818288.5
9Aleix Espargaro01:40.479+1.05917283.1
10Pol Espargaro01:40.573+1.15315287.3
11Scott Redding01:40.639+1.21919285.7
12Valentino Rossi01:40.698+1.27820285.7
13Jonas Folger01:40.773+1.35320285.7
14Marc Marquez01:40.915+1.49519284.2
15Johann Zarco01:41.019+1.59917285.7
16Andrea Iannone01:41.165+1.74519285.2
17Tito Rabat01:41.165+1.74520282.2
18Bradley Smith01:41.432+2.01220283.9
19Takuya Tsuda01:41.887+2.46719280.8
20Sam Lowes01:41.905+2.48518282.2
21Karel Abraham01:41.909+2.48916285.7
22Loris Baz01:42.515+3.09519280.2
23Hector Barbera01:42.630+3.21017289.0
FP3 · 06.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:38.580—21291.6
2Jorge Lorenzo01:38.798+0.21821293.0
3Maverick Viñales01:38.809+0.22920291.1
4Marc Marquez01:38.971+0.39119289.6
5Valentino Rossi01:39.082+0.50222288.5
6Cal Crutchlow01:39.107+0.52718289.9
7Jonas Folger01:39.155+0.57519292.0
8Scott Redding01:39.216+0.63619289.6
9Johann Zarco01:39.364+0.78420291.1
10Jack Miller01:39.412+0.83219290.5
11Andrea Iannone01:39.492+0.91219290.4
12Tito Rabat01:39.582+1.00220289.3
13Danilo Petrucci01:39.645+1.06518291.6
14Aleix Espargaro01:39.653+1.07319289.1
15Alvaro Bautista01:39.662+1.08221293.1
16Andrea Dovizioso01:39.840+1.26019292.6
17Bradley Smith01:39.906+1.32622288.9
18Pol Espargaro01:40.026+1.44619291.5
19Hector Barbera01:40.189+1.60918291.4
20Loris Baz01:40.288+1.70819287.3
21Karel Abraham01:40.289+1.70917290.4
22Sam Lowes01:40.552+1.97218286.2
23Takuya Tsuda01:40.953+2.37321286.5
FP4 · 06.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:39.467—15292.5
2Johann Zarco01:39.674+0.20716294.1
3Jonas Folger01:39.675+0.20814292.9
4Jorge Lorenzo01:39.732+0.26515293.2
5Cal Crutchlow01:39.790+0.32312289.8
6Valentino Rossi01:39.871+0.40416288.4
7Andrea Dovizioso01:39.947+0.48012295.4
8Daniel Pedrosa01:39.994+0.52716293.7
9Pol Espargaro01:40.049+0.58214293.0
10Tito Rabat01:40.072+0.60515289.6
11Alvaro Bautista01:40.075+0.60816293.0
12Aleix Espargaro01:40.099+0.63211294.1
13Jack Miller01:40.129+0.66215289.0
14Danilo Petrucci01:40.143+0.67613290.1
15Andrea Iannone01:40.171+0.70414290.9
16Maverick Viñales01:40.174+0.70714292.0
17Karel Abraham01:40.377+0.9108290.5
18Scott Redding01:40.407+0.94014294.3
19Loris Baz01:40.518+1.05112285.7
20Hector Barbera01:40.692+1.22511293.7
21Bradley Smith01:40.784+1.31715288.2
22Sam Lowes01:40.802+1.33515288.3
23Takuya Tsuda01:41.351+1.88412284.9
Q1 · 06.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:38.919—8289.6
2Aleix Espargaro01:38.942+0.0237292.4
3Danilo Petrucci01:39.090+0.1718290.2
4Andrea Dovizioso01:39.255+0.3367294.4
5Pol Espargaro01:39.282+0.3638294.1
6Bradley Smith01:39.321+0.4028291.3
7Alvaro Bautista01:39.462+0.5438291.4
8Tito Rabat01:39.564+0.6457291.5
9Karel Abraham01:39.678+0.7598293.7
10Loris Baz01:39.824+0.9057286.9
11Hector Barbera01:39.906+0.9878293.3
12Sam Lowes01:40.213+1.2945287.1
13Takuya Tsuda01:40.386+1.4678287.1
Q2 · 06.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:38.249—7290.7
2Marc Marquez01:38.298+0.0498290.7
3Cal Crutchlow01:38.453+0.2047290.8
4Maverick Viñales01:38.677+0.4287291.7
5Andrea Iannone01:38.744+0.4958290.7
6Johann Zarco01:38.861+0.6128290.9
7Valentino Rossi01:38.908+0.6597289.6
8Jorge Lorenzo01:38.910+0.6618293.3
9Jonas Folger01:39.108+0.8598290.7
10Jack Miller01:39.125+0.8768289.9
11Scott Redding01:39.152+0.9038292.2
12Aleix Espargaro01:39.400+1.1515288.4
Warm Up · 07.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:39.433—12290.2
2Jorge Lorenzo01:39.433—10291.4
3Cal Crutchlow01:39.573+0.14012288.7
4Jack Miller01:39.581+0.14812287.7
5Aleix Espargaro01:39.733+0.30010291.7
6Alvaro Bautista01:39.741+0.30812289.1
7Daniel Pedrosa01:39.837+0.40411290.5
8Marc Marquez01:39.852+0.41912291.2
9Scott Redding01:39.867+0.43412289.6
10Valentino Rossi01:39.935+0.50212290.2
11Andrea Dovizioso01:40.118+0.68511294.1
12Jonas Folger01:40.179+0.74612288.4
13Karel Abraham01:40.207+0.77412289.0
14Tito Rabat01:40.209+0.77612287.9
15Andrea Iannone01:40.257+0.82411286.6
16Johann Zarco01:40.283+0.85012289.2
17Bradley Smith01:40.335+0.90212285.4
18Danilo Petrucci01:40.414+0.98111290.9
19Pol Espargaro01:40.541+1.10812289.3
20Loris Baz01:40.872+1.43912284.9
21Hector Barbera01:40.985+1.55212291.2
22Sam Lowes01:41.054+1.62112285.3
23Takuya Tsuda01:42.009+2.57612284.7
Race · 07.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Daniel Pedrosa45:26.8272527
2Marc Marquez+6.1362027
3Jorge Lorenzo+14.7671627
4Johann Zarco+17.6011327
5Andrea Dovizioso+22.9131127
6Maverick Viñales+24.5561027
7Danilo Petrucci+24.959927
8Jonas Folger+27.721827
9Aleix Espargaro+31.233727
10Valentino Rossi+38.682627
11Scott Redding+40.979527
12Hector Barbera+43.199427
13Loris Baz+43.211327
14Bradley Smith+47.964227
15Karel Abraham+51.279127
16Sam Lowes+68.885027
17Takuya Tsuda+87.450027
RetiredAlvaro Bautista05
RetiredAndrea Iannone09
RetiredCal Crutchlow05
RetiredJack Miller05
RetiredPol Espargaro05
RetiredTito Rabat09

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Daniel Pedrosa131%63%77%87%10%1
Marc Marquez221%53%70%83%15%2
Cal Crutchlow312%36%54%69%29%—
Maverick Viñales411%40%62%85%11%6
Andrea Iannone56%24%43%67%29%—
Johann Zarco65%21%40%70%24%4
Valentino Rossi74%19%41%81%9%10
Jorge Lorenzo84%14%32%77%9%3
Jonas Folger93%9%23%70%13%8
Jack Miller101%5%13%50%30%—
Scott Redding111%4%12%56%13%11
Aleix Espargaro121%4%10%46%20%9
Danilo Petrucci130%2%6%36%23%7
Andrea Dovizioso140%2%6%34%13%5
Pol Espargaro150%1%4%26%20%—
Bradley Smith160%1%3%21%12%14
Alvaro Bautista170%1%2%14%19%—
Tito Rabat180%0%1%11%12%—
Karel Abraham190%0%1%6%33%15
Loris Baz200%0%1%5%23%13
Hector Barbera210%0%1%5%14%12
Sam Lowes220%0%0%2%35%16
Takuya Tsuda230%0%0%2%19%17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · AldeguerS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Viñales

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
56%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

24
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
27/27
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
2.386 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Eugene Laverty, from P15 to P9.

Longest battle: Stefan Bradl vs Yonny Hernandez (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2313%
20255/2322%
20248/2532%
20236/2326%
20223/2512%
20213/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet