Round 8 of 18 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2011

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

01.07 – 03.07.2011

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	41:50.089	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.997	20
3	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+1.143	16
4	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+8.980	13
5	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+9.076	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+26.450	10
7	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Mapfre Aspar Team MotoGP	+28.745	9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+32.043	8
9	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+33.421	7
10	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+34.724	6
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+37.359	5
12	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+43.964	4
13	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+47.654	3
14	Randy De Puniet	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+48.840	2
15	Toni Elias	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+75.199	1
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/23

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.997 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P12 to P6.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Casey Stoner (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Toni Elias	16	7	+9
Alvaro Bautista	14	9	+5
Jorge Lorenzo	5	2	+3
Daniel Pedrosa	8	13	−5
Karel Abraham	11	14	−3
Cal Crutchlow	7	10	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Lorenzo	5→1	+4.4
Valentino Rossi	12→6	+3.9
Andrea Dovizioso	4→2	+2.8
Toni Elias	16→15	−2.5
Karel Abraham	11→12	−2.7
Colin Edwards	6→9	−3.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

25.8 °C

Air

max 26.2 °C

39%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marco Simoncelli	01:48.987	—	21	327.7
2	Casey Stoner	01:49.027	+0.040	16	326.9
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.088	+0.101	21	330.8
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.251	+0.264	20	325.1
5	Ben Spies	01:49.364	+0.377	20	324.0
6	Colin Edwards	01:49.810	+0.823	19	322.1
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.104	+1.117	19	324.2
8	Nicky Hayden	01:50.203	+1.216	19	325.2
9	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:50.629	+1.642	21	324.4
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:50.658	+1.671	16	325.2
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.683	+1.696	19	320.6
12	Randy De Puniet	01:50.729	+1.742	19	321.6
13	Valentino Rossi	01:50.780	+1.793	13	324.2
14	Hector Barbera	01:51.153	+2.166	18	327.8
15	Toni Elias	01:51.868	+2.881	19	325.5
16	Karel Abraham	01:51.876	+2.889	18	322.9

FP2 · 01.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.272	—	6	326.4
2	Toni Elias	01:51.937	+2.665	10	322.7
3	Valentino Rossi	01:52.550	+3.278	6	323.2
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:54.497	+5.225	4	320.6
5	Randy De Puniet	01:55.279	+6.007	13	318.9
—	Ben Spies	02:26.938	+37.666	2	110.5
—	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.812	+10.540	2	315.8
Retired	Casey Stoner		—	0	0.0
—	Colin Edwards	02:10.026	+20.754	2	303.8
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		—	0	0.0
—	Hector Barbera	01:58.748	+9.476	8	321.2
—	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:09.337	+20.065	3	298.3
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0
—	Karel Abraham	01:58.334	+9.062	2	313.0
Retired	Marco Simoncelli		—	0	0.0
—	Nicky Hayden	02:06.386	+17.114	2	307.2

FP3 · 02.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.080	—	21	321.1
2	Marco Simoncelli	01:48.411	+0.331	19	320.3
3	Casey Stoner	01:48.734	+0.654	17	324.5
4	Ben Spies	01:49.072	+0.992	20	320.5
5	Colin Edwards	01:49.078	+0.998	19	318.0
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.132	+1.052	19	324.0
7	Nicky Hayden	01:49.756	+1.676	19	323.5
8	Valentino Rossi	01:49.889	+1.809	18	319.5
9	Randy De Puniet	01:49.985	+1.905	20	317.3
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.994	+1.914	20	323.4
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.002	+1.922	19	320.2
12	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.296	+2.216	18	318.2
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:50.440	+2.360	21	322.5
14	Karel Abraham	01:50.859	+2.779	21	320.5
15	Toni Elias	01:51.043	+2.963	19	323.0
16	Hector Barbera	01:51.145	+3.065	19	323.4

Qualifying · 02.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Casey Stoner	01:48.034	—	13	322.3
2	Ben Spies	01:48.479	+0.445	11	319.2
3	Marco Simoncelli	01:48.485	+0.451	13	321.0
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.694	+0.660	12	324.8
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.756	+0.722	14	323.1
6	Colin Edwards	01:48.974	+0.940	17	314.9
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.021	+0.987	16	318.9
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.398	+1.364	8	317.9
9	Nicky Hayden	01:49.509	+1.475	17	320.5
10	Hector Barbera	01:49.663	+1.629	16	327.2
11	Karel Abraham	01:49.678	+1.644	15	323.8
12	Valentino Rossi	01:49.902	+1.868	14	320.7
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:50.156	+2.122	15	322.7
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:50.460	+2.426	13	322.1
15	Randy De Puniet	01:50.651	+2.617	13	320.0
16	Toni Elias	01:50.742	+2.708	19	324.2

Warm Up · 03.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marco Simoncelli	01:48.430	—	11	322.6
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.438	+0.008	11	328.9
3	Casey Stoner	01:48.480	+0.050	10	328.8
4	Ben Spies	01:48.512	+0.082	11	322.6
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.796	+0.366	11	326.0
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.090	+0.660	9	326.2
7	Nicky Hayden	01:49.148	+0.718	11	323.9
8	Colin Edwards	01:49.374	+0.944	11	322.9
9	Valentino Rossi	01:49.459	+1.029	11	322.7
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:49.527	+1.097	11	325.0
11	Randy De Puniet	01:49.532	+1.102	11	321.5
12	Hector Barbera	01:49.623	+1.193	10	332.5
13	Karel Abraham	01:49.749	+1.319	10	325.0
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.753	+1.323	11	326.1
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.796	+1.366	11	323.0
16	Toni Elias	01:50.935	+2.505	10	324.8

Race · 03.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	41:50.089	25	23
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+0.997	20	23
3	Casey Stoner	+1.143	16	23
4	Ben Spies	+8.980	13	23
5	Marco Simoncelli	+9.076	11	23
6	Valentino Rossi	+26.450	10	23
7	Hector Barbera	+28.745	9	23
8	Daniel Pedrosa	+32.043	8	23
9	Colin Edwards	+33.421	7	23
10	Nicky Hayden	+34.724	6	23
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	+37.359	5	23
12	Karel Abraham	+43.964	4	23
13	Alvaro Bautista	+47.654	3	23
14	Randy De Puniet	+48.840	2	23
15	Toni Elias	+75.199	1	23
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	6

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Jorge Martin +0.45%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Marc Marquez +0.52%
S2	Raul Fernandez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.48%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.50%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.22%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S3	Luca Marini +0.10%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.39%	Miguel Oliveira +0.58%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.33%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.24%	Danilo Petrucci +0.32%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.63%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.34%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.07%	Valentino Rossi +0.27%	Cal Crutchlow +0.43%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.21%	Andrea Iannone +0.31%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Casey Stoner	136	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	108	−28
3	Andrea Dovizioso	99	−37
4	Valentino Rossi	81	−55
5	Nicky Hayden	71	−65
6	Ben Spies	61	−75

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2010 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

4.014 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Melandri, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Marco Simoncelli (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet