Round 7 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2011

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

23.06 – 25.06.2011

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	41:44.659	25
2	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+7.697	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.506	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+30.684	13
5	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+43.172	11
6	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+44.536	10
7	Colin Edwards	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+68.112	9
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+70.753	8
9	Marco Simoncelli	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+84.925	7
10	Toni Elias	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+86.216	6
11	Alvaro Bautista	Suzuki	Rizla Suzuki MotoGP	+98.466	5
12	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Mapfre Aspar Team MotoGP	+0.000	4
13	Kousuke Akiyoshi	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+0.000	3
14	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+0.000	2
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Ben Spies

7.697 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P11 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Casey Stoner (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Ben Spies (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Toni Elias	15	9	+6
Valentino Rossi	11	5	+6
Hiroshi Aoyama	12	8	+4
Jorge Lorenzo	4	14	−10

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	11→4	+5.3
Nicky Hayden	9→5	+3.0
Ben Spies	2→1	+2.5
Hector Barbera	13→12	−1.5
Marco Simoncelli	1→9	−6.2
Cal Crutchlow	6→14	−8.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

13.3 °C

Air

max 13.4 °C

84%

Humidity

0.5 mm

Rain

20 km/h

Wind

gusts 36 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marco Simoncelli	01:49.036	—	17	259.9
2	Valentino Rossi	01:49.396	+0.360	18	262.0
3	Casey Stoner	01:49.527	+0.491	12	279.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.640	+0.604	17	264.3
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.995	+0.959	12	252.4
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.386	+1.350	13	277.6
7	Karel Abraham	01:50.413	+1.377	20	269.1
8	Colin Edwards	01:50.968	+1.932	15	245.7
9	Nicky Hayden	01:51.277	+2.241	16	258.4
10	Ben Spies	01:51.590	+2.554	15	260.4
11	Hector Barbera	01:52.646	+3.610	15	244.5
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:53.132	+4.096	19	249.3
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:53.164	+4.128	15	249.6
14	Toni Elias	01:53.323	+4.287	15	253.5
15	Loris Capirossi	01:53.348	+4.312	15	247.1
16	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:53.353	+4.317	14	243.1
17	Randy De Puniet	01:53.562	+4.526	13	250.1

FP2 · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marco Simoncelli	01:36.149	—	25	287.5
2	Casey Stoner	01:36.342	+0.193	17	294.4
3	Ben Spies	01:36.409	+0.260	24	287.7
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:36.745	+0.596	24	298.8
5	Valentino Rossi	01:37.247	+1.098	28	292.4
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:37.332	+1.183	18	289.1
7	Colin Edwards	01:37.386	+1.237	23	296.2
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.661	+1.512	12	289.0
9	Nicky Hayden	01:37.724	+1.575	27	290.2
10	Toni Elias	01:38.276	+2.127	27	284.2
11	Randy De Puniet	01:38.282	+2.133	28	296.6
12	Hector Barbera	01:38.427	+2.278	24	282.1
13	Karel Abraham	01:38.929	+2.780	30	283.3
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.032	+2.883	28	284.3
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:39.197	+3.048	13	275.6
16	Loris Capirossi	01:40.243	+4.094	23	285.5
17	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:40.991	+4.842	23	279.6

Qualifying · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marco Simoncelli	01:34.718	—	27	291.0
2	Ben Spies	01:34.727	+0.009	27	293.1
3	Casey Stoner	01:35.008	+0.290	25	298.7
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.143	+0.425	28	300.7
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.244	+0.526	29	295.0
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:35.329	+0.611	28	291.3
7	Karel Abraham	01:35.742	+1.024	28	291.7
8	Colin Edwards	01:35.818	+1.100	25	294.5
9	Nicky Hayden	01:35.866	+1.148	27	302.1
10	Randy De Puniet	01:36.435	+1.717	29	300.2
11	Valentino Rossi	01:36.564	+1.846	27	301.2
12	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:36.580	+1.862	25	293.5
13	Hector Barbera	01:36.590	+1.872	30	293.2
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:36.820	+2.102	29	300.1
15	Loris Capirossi	01:37.130	+2.412	21	290.9
16	Toni Elias	01:37.651	+2.933	26	282.2
17	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:39.006	+4.288	22	281.3

Warm Up · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Valentino Rossi	01:41.362	—	6	277.1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:45.622	+4.260	4	271.9
3	Ben Spies	01:49.675	+8.313	5	272.5
4	Nicky Hayden	01:50.011	+8.649	8	276.1
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.154	+8.792	5	259.9
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:50.321	+8.959	8	262.9
7	Toni Elias	01:50.582	+9.220	6	260.7
8	Hector Barbera	01:53.097	+11.735	8	265.0
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:53.998	+12.636	6	268.1
10	Kousuke Akiyoshi	01:54.668	+13.306	8	261.6
11	Karel Abraham	02:12.717	+31.355	4	270.1
12	Cal Crutchlow	02:21.243	+39.881	3	285.9
13	Marco Simoncelli	03:53.655	+132.293	3	236.0
14	Casey Stoner	10:58.324	+556.962	3	222.4
Retired	Colin Edwards		—	0	0.0
Retired	Loris Capirossi		—	0	0.0
Retired	Randy De Puniet		—	0	0.0

Race · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Ben Spies	41:44.659	25	26
2	Casey Stoner	+7.697	20	26
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+27.506	16	26
4	Valentino Rossi	+30.684	13	26
5	Nicky Hayden	+43.172	11	26
6	Jorge Lorenzo	+44.536	10	26
7	Colin Edwards	+68.112	9	26
8	Hiroshi Aoyama	+70.753	8	26
9	Marco Simoncelli	+84.925	7	26
10	Toni Elias	+86.216	6	26
11	Alvaro Bautista	+98.466	5	26
12	Hector Barbera	+0.000	4	25
13	Kousuke Akiyoshi	+0.000	3	25
14	Cal Crutchlow	+0.000	2	24
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	0
Retired	Randy De Puniet		0	1

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Loris Capirossi	15	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Casey Stoner	116	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	98	−18
3	Andrea Dovizioso	83	−33
4	Valentino Rossi	68	−48
5	Daniel Pedrosa	61	−55
6	Nicky Hayden	60	−56

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2010 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

2.935 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Daniel Pedrosa, from P7 to P2.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Marco Simoncelli (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet