Round 10 of 22 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2025

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

27.06 – 29.06.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:14.072	25
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.635	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.666	16
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.084	13
5	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+10.124	11
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.163	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+18.896	9
8	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+20.295	8
9	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+23.687	7
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+23.743	6
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+24.251	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+24.875	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.882	3
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+25.065	2
15	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+49.219	1
16	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+49.360	0
DNF	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:02.150	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.351	9
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.247	7
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+2.269	6
5	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.686	5
6	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+4.074	4
7	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.064	3
8	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.159	2
9	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.069	1
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.143	0
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+11.327	0
12	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+12.147	0
13	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+15.290	0
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.899	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.990	0
16	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+17.554	0
17	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+24.707	0
18	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+27.287	0
19	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+32.441	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Fabio Quartararo · 32%	Marc Marquez · 11% · from P4	0.90 / 0.90	1.9 / 2.0
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 30%	Marc Marquez · 11% · from P4	0.77 / 0.77	2.5 / 2.6
Race (after the sprint)	Fabio Quartararo · 33%	Marc Marquez · 23% · from P4	0.79 / 0.77	2.2 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.534	—	+0.553	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:32.572	+0.038	+0.210	Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.612	+0.078	+0.221	Medium	24
Pedro Acosta	1:32.658	+0.124	+0.448	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:32.805	+0.271	+0.292	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.898	+0.364	+0.512	Medium	16
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.903	+0.369	+0.320	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.138	+0.604	+0.275	Medium	23
Raul Fernandez	1:33.236	+0.702	+0.667	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:33.317	+0.783	+0.217	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:33.371	+0.837	+0.319	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:33.392	+0.858	+0.344	Soft	23
Brad Binder	1:33.453	+0.919	+0.327	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:33.479	+0.945	+0.105	Medium	24
Somkiat Chantra	1:34.238	+1.704	+0.221	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:34.445	+1.911	+0.209	Soft	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:34.941	+2.407	+0.193	Medium	5

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.635 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P10 to P5.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.351 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P16 to P10.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:02:50	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:04:13	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:17:16	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:19:52	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:21:04	Pedro Acosta	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:21:38	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Sprint	15:22:21		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 second penalty for rider #32 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race	14:02:51	Ai Ogura	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:29	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:10:33	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:17	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:17	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:54	Miguel Oliveira	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:33:49	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T17
Race	14:35:26	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #23

Race: 5 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 15 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Enea Bastianini	20	16	+4
Aleix Espargaro	21	18	+3
Pedro Acosta	9	6	+3
Fabio Quartararo	1	5	−4
Miguel Oliveira	17	21	−4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	10	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	20→9	+6.0
Pedro Acosta	9→4	+4.0
Marc Marquez	4→1	+3.8
Johann Zarco	12→12	−2.1
Jack Miller	14→14	−2.8
Fabio Quartararo	1→10	−7.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	76%	+0.58%	+0.014	1	3	7.2
Soft	24%	+1.65%	+0.004	0	0	14.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 24.4 °C

60%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 27.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.216	—	13	309.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.529	+0.313	20	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.122	+1.30%	6	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.570	+0.354	21	312.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.912	—	5	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.609	+0.393	21	314.6	Soft / Medium	1:34.172	+1.36%	12	Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.889	+0.673	18	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.976	+1.15%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.956	+0.740	21	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.330	+0.45%	5	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:33.115	+0.899	17	308.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:33.144	+0.928	19	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.066	+1.24%	5	Medium
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:33.149	+0.933	19	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.602	+1.82%	10	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:33.151	+0.935	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.316	+1.51%	14	Medium
11	Pedro Acosta	01:33.181	+0.965	19	309.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	01:33.231	+1.015	22	305.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.041	+1.22%	17	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.264	+1.048	20	302.9	Soft / Medium	1:35.128	+2.39%	9	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:33.339	+1.123	20	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.949	+1.12%	5	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.378	+1.162	19	307.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:33.423	+1.207	18	306.0	Soft / Medium	1:35.394	+2.67%	5	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:33.615	+1.399	21	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.639	+1.86%	4	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.622	+1.406	20	305.2	Soft / Medium	1:35.763	+3.07%	6	Medium
19	Ai Ogura	01:33.823	+1.607	18	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:35.893	+3.21%	6	Medium
20	Brad Binder	01:33.923	+1.707	21	311.4	Soft / Medium	1:35.264	+2.53%	5	Medium
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.295	+2.079	20	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:36.102	+3.43%	10	Medium
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:34.809	+2.593	19	306.7	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 27.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.156	—	29	305.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	01:31.258	+0.102	17	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Pedro Acosta	01:31.349	+0.193	29	313.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.352	+0.196	29	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.410	+0.254	23	309.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:31.455	+0.299	24	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.272	—	6	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.528	+0.372	26	311.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	01:31.604	+0.448	26	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.748	+0.592	21	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	01:31.776	+0.620	26	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.200	+1.01%	6	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	01:31.777	+0.621	28	309.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Fermin Aldeguer	01:31.805	+0.649	17	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:31.831	+0.675	28	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.136	+0.94%	5	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.942	+0.786	24	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.364	+1.18%	5	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	01:31.953	+0.797	19	311.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:31.992	+0.836	28	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:32.023	+0.867	30	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:32.366	+1.210	28	309.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.452	+1.296	22	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Ai Ogura	01:32.617	+1.461	21	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.975	+0.76%	5	Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	01:33.114	+1.958	21	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.249	+2.093	17	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.876	—	14	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.538	+0.13%	6	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.050	+0.174	13	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.654	+0.25%	5	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:32.070	+0.194	15	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.170	+0.81%	5	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.136	+0.260	15	309.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.422	—	11	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:32.187	+0.311	13	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.456	+0.04%	5	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:32.364	+0.488	15	304.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.523	+0.11%	6	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.364	+0.488	15	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.890	+0.51%	8	Soft
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:32.374	+0.498	12	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.803	+0.41%	5	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:32.384	+0.508	14	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.933	+0.55%	5	Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.402	+0.526	15	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.846	+0.46%	10	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.430	+0.554	13	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.174	+0.81%	5	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:32.507	+0.631	13	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.929	+0.55%	7	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:32.530	+0.654	13	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:32.933	+0.55%	7	Soft
14	Ai Ogura	01:32.596	+0.720	13	301.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.718	+0.32%	5	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	01:32.633	+0.757	13	306.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:32.666	+0.790	14	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.144	+0.78%	7	Soft
17	Joan Mir	01:32.763	+0.887	16	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:32.988	+0.61%	12	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:32.852	+0.976	13	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.188	+0.83%	5	Soft
19	Brad Binder	01:32.873	+0.997	17	309.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.556	+1.23%	6	Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.100	+1.224	13	309.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.248	+1.372	13	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.768	+1.46%	4	Soft
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:34.157	+2.281	14	306.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	01:31.517	—	8	309.8	Soft / Soft
2	Fermin Aldeguer	01:31.557	+0.040	8	306.7	Soft / Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:31.561	+0.044	8	307.5	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:31.704	+0.187	8	302.2	Soft / Soft
5	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.892	+0.375	8	308.3	Soft / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:31.929	+0.412	8	312.2	Soft / Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:31.953	+0.436	8	307.5	Soft / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.972	+0.455	8	300.0	Soft / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:32.033	+0.516	8	302.2	Soft / Soft
10	Ai Ogura	01:32.080	+0.563	6	304.4	Soft / Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.547	+1.030	8	305.2	Soft / Soft
12	Somkiat Chantra	01:33.408	+1.891	8	306.0	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.651	—	8	300.7	Soft / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.679	+0.028	8	309.8	Soft / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:30.811	+0.160	9	308.3	Soft / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.871	+0.220	8	309.0	Soft / Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.060	+0.409	9	309.8	Soft / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.170	+0.519	9	308.3	Soft / Soft
7	Fermin Aldeguer	01:31.286	+0.635	8	309.0	Soft / Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.329	+0.678	8	306.0	Soft / Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	01:31.354	+0.703	9	312.2	Soft / Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.465	+0.814	7	306.7	Soft / Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	01:31.518	+0.867	8	308.3	Soft / Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:31.647	+0.996	9	305.2	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	20:02.150	12	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.062	—	10	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+0.351	9	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.114	+0.06%	10	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+1.247	7	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.156	+0.10%	10	Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+2.269	6	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.136	+0.08%	10	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.686	5	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.307	+0.27%	11	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	+4.074	4	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.253	+0.21%	9	Soft
7	Fermin Aldeguer	+9.064	3	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.286	+0.24%	8	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	+9.159	2	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.658	+0.65%	10	Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	+11.069	1	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.531	+0.51%	8	Soft
10	Brad Binder	+11.143	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.798	+0.80%	10	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+11.327	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.806	+0.81%	10	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+12.147	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.736	+0.73%	10	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	+15.290	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:33.031	+1.05%	11	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+15.899	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:33.085	+1.11%	11	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+15.990	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:33.044	+1.07%	11	Soft
16	Ai Ogura	+17.554	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.926	+0.94%	10	Soft
17	Lorenzo Savadori	+24.707	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:33.182	+1.22%	10	Soft
18	Aleix Espargaro	+27.287	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:33.518	+1.58%	11	Soft
19	Somkiat Chantra	+32.441	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:34.301	+2.43%	9	Soft
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	9	Soft / Soft	1:32.158	+0.10%	6	Soft
Out on lap 1	Joan Mir		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	1	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:31.874	—	7	309.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.011	+0.137	7	309.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.015	+0.141	7	315.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.910	+0.26%	5	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.071	+0.197	7	310.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.110	+0.236	6	303.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Pedro Acosta	01:32.374	+0.500	7	306.7	Soft / Medium	1:32.758	+0.10%	5	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:32.400	+0.526	7	307.5	Hard / Medium	1:32.670	—	5	Medium
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:32.466	+0.592	6	304.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:32.470	+0.596	7	309.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.112	+0.48%	5	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.480	+0.606	7	305.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.230	+0.60%	5	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.498	+0.624	7	306.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.593	+0.719	7	311.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.918	+0.27%	5	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	01:32.606	+0.732	7	313.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.803	+0.14%	5	Medium
14	Joan Mir	01:32.751	+0.877	7	303.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Raul Fernandez	01:32.872	+0.998	7	306.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.125	+0.49%	5	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:32.896	+1.022	7	306.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:32.909	+1.035	7	306.7	Hard / Medium	1:33.231	+0.61%	5	Medium
18	Ai Ogura	01:32.948	+1.074	7	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.060	+1.50%	5	Soft
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.064	+1.190	7	305.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Brad Binder	01:33.070	+1.196	7	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.512	+0.91%	5	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.566	+1.692	7	305.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.109	+1.55%	5	Medium
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:34.144	+2.270	7	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.633	+2.12%	5	Soft

Race · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	40:14.072	25	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.572	+0.04%	21	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.635	20	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.534	—	23	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.666	16	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.612	+0.08%	24	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	+6.084	13	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.658	+0.13%	22	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	+10.124	11	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.805	+0.29%	23	Medium
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+12.163	10	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.903	+0.40%	23	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	+18.896	9	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.898	+0.39%	16	Medium
8	Raul Fernandez	+20.295	8	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.236	+0.76%	21	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	+23.687	7	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.371	+0.91%	23	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+23.743	6	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.138	+0.65%	23	Medium
11	Brad Binder	+24.251	5	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.453	+0.99%	22	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+24.875	4	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.392	+0.93%	23	Soft
13	Alex Rins	+24.882	3	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.317	+0.85%	24	Medium
14	Jack Miller	+25.065	2	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.479	+1.02%	24	Medium
15	Somkiat Chantra	+49.219	1	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.238	+1.84%	21	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	+49.360	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:34.445	+2.07%	23	Soft
Out on lap 1	Ai Ogura		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Fermin Aldeguer		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	8	Hard / Medium	1:34.941	+2.60%	5	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fermin Aldeguer	56%	2 ✓
2	Raul Fernandez	43%	1 ✓
3	Miguel Oliveira	29%	8
4	Alex Rins	21%	9
5	Enea Bastianini	19%	7
6	Jack Miller	11%	4
7	Joan Mir	7%	3
8	Ai Ogura	4%	10
9	Brad Binder	3%	6
10	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	5
11	Aleix Espargaro	4%	11
12	Somkiat Chantra	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	65%	88%	1
2	Pedro Acosta	22%	53%	81%	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	14%	46%	76%	2
4	Marco Bezzecchi	6%	32%	67%	5
5	Alex Marquez	4%	25%	53%	3
6	Marc Marquez	6%	22%	56%	4
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	13%	40%	6
8	Maverick Viñales	2%	14%	37%	10
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	8%	31%	8
10	Fermin Aldeguer	2%	8%	25%	7
11	Raul Fernandez	2%	9%	28%	11
12	Johann Zarco	1%	3%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Enea Bastianini	17	20	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #23

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	32%	64%	79%	90%	9%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	2	21%	54%	71%	84%	13%	5
Alex Marquez	3	14%	46%	66%	86%	11%	2
Marc Marquez	4	11%	39%	62%	86%	9%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	5	6%	28%	50%	80%	14%	3
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	22%	47%	87%	5%	8
Fermin Aldeguer	7	4%	17%	37%	82%	5%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	2%	11%	26%	70%	15%	4
Pedro Acosta	9	1%	6%	17%	62%	16%	9
Maverick Viñales	10	1%	4%	14%	60%	9%	6
Raul Fernandez	11	1%	4%	11%	56%	3%	—
Johann Zarco	12	1%	2%	5%	37%	22%	11
Joan Mir	13	0%	1%	4%	29%	25%	—
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	9%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	15	0%	1%	2%	20%	14%	17
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	1%	14%	18%	10
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	13%	12
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	12%	15
Ai Ogura	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	6%	16
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	8%	13
Aleix Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	23%	18
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	5%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	33%	65%	78%	85%	14%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	2	8%	28%	49%	74%	22%	3
Alex Marquez	3	12%	38%	57%	75%	22%	—
Marc Marquez	4	23%	56%	73%	83%	16%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	5	10%	38%	61%	83%	15%	2
Franco Morbidelli	6	2%	12%	30%	75%	16%	7
Fermin Aldeguer	7	3%	16%	35%	73%	21%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	6%	29%	53%	81%	14%	6
Pedro Acosta	9	1%	6%	19%	69%	18%	4
Maverick Viñales	10	2%	11%	29%	78%	13%	5
Raul Fernandez	11	0%	2%	7%	52%	20%	8
Johann Zarco	12	0%	1%	4%	45%	18%	12
Joan Mir	13	0%	0%	1%	25%	34%	—
Jack Miller	14	0%	0%	0%	14%	25%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	15	0%	0%	0%	9%	24%	—
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	1%	26%	14%	11
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	30%	21%	—
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	0%	9%	20%	13
Ai Ogura	19	0%	0%	0%	9%	17%	—
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	9
Aleix Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	23%	16
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	38% → 56%	+18	11% → 23%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14% → 29%	+15	3% → 6%
Marco Bezzecchi	30% → 38%	+8	8% → 10%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	47% → 28%	−20	20% → 8%
Franco Morbidelli	23% → 12%	−11	6% → 2%
Alex Marquez	42% → 38%	−4	14% → 12%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:32.062	—	+0.210	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:32.114	+0.052	+0.356	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.136	+0.074	+0.320	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.156	+0.094	+0.553	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.158	+0.096	+0.275	Soft	6
Maverick Viñales	1:32.253	+0.191	+0.292	Soft	9
Fermin Aldeguer	1:32.286	+0.224	+0.884	Soft	8
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.307	+0.245	+0.221	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:32.531	+0.469	+0.448	Soft	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.658	+0.596	+0.512	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.736	+0.674	+0.193	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:32.798	+0.736	+0.327	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:32.806	+0.744	+0.344	Soft	10
Ai Ogura	1:32.926	+0.864	+0.300	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:33.031	+0.969	+0.319	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:33.044	+0.982	+0.217	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:33.085	+1.023	+0.105	Soft	11
Lorenzo Savadori	1:33.182	+1.120	+0.781	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.518	+1.456	+0.209	Soft	11
Somkiat Chantra	1:34.301	+2.239	+0.221	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	270	—
2	Alex Marquez	230	−40
3	Francesco Bagnaia	160	−110
4	Franco Morbidelli	128	−142
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	120	−150
6	Johann Zarco	97	−173

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.676 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P10 to P3.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Jack Miller (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.269	—	+0.221	Medium	24
Jorge Martin	1:32.307	+0.038	+0.457	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.441	+0.172	+0.320	Medium	22
Marc Marquez	1:32.546	+0.277	+0.210	Medium	20
Maverick Viñales	1:32.576	+0.307	+0.292	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:32.594	+0.325	+0.319	Medium	24
Pedro Acosta	1:32.730	+0.461	+0.448	Soft	22
Brad Binder	1:32.881	+0.612	+0.327	Soft	24
Alex Marquez	1:32.986	+0.717	+0.356	Medium	21
Raul Fernandez	1:33.126	+0.857	+0.667	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	75%	+0.93%	+0.006	1	3	8.5
Soft	25%	+0.98%	+0.003	0	0	10.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.