Round 11 of 22 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2025

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

11.07 – 13.07.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:42.854	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.380	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.080	16
4	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.738	13
5	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+18.916	11
6	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+24.743	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+24.820	9
8	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+25.757	8
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+25.859	7
10	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+39.419	6
DNF	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	22:25.747	12
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.938	9
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+4.361	7
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+4.683	6
5	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+9.405	5
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.720	4
7	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+12.090	3
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.347	2
9	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+17.236	1
10	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+18.728	0
11	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+19.486	0
12	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+20.339	0
13	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+21.978	0
14	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+23.077	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+23.575	0
16	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+29.220	0
17	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+31.433	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+50.698	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 34% ✓	Marc Marquez · 34% · from P1	0.88 / 0.88	2.5 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.77 / 0.77	2.7 / 2.9
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 37% ✓	Marc Marquez · 37% · from P1	0.63 / 0.77	3.0 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:21.239	—	+0.210	Medium	28
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:21.253	+0.014	+0.320	Medium	15
Marco Bezzecchi	1:21.294	+0.055	+0.553	Medium	18
Alex Marquez	1:21.480	+0.241	+0.356	Medium	28
Francesco Bagnaia	1:21.516	+0.277	+0.221	Medium	28
Johann Zarco	1:21.736	+0.497	+0.344	Medium	15
Ai Ogura	1:21.908	+0.669	+0.300	Medium	19
Fermin Aldeguer	1:21.976	+0.737	+0.884	Medium	28
Joan Mir	1:21.988	+0.749	+0.562	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:22.000	+0.761	+0.275	Medium	28
Brad Binder	1:22.100	+0.861	+0.327	Medium	28
Jack Miller	1:22.119	+0.880	+0.105	Medium	28
Luca Marini	1:22.127	+0.888	+0.308	Medium	27
Raul Fernandez	1:22.202	+0.963	+0.667	Medium	28
Lorenzo Savadori	1:22.532	+1.293	+0.781	Medium	16
Alex Rins	1:22.681	+1.442	+0.217	Medium	28

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

6.380 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fermin Aldeguer, from P12 to P5.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Lorenzo Savadori (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/15

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.938 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P8 to P4.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Brad Binder (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:16:06	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK - Medical Centre
Race	14:03:52	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:07	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:28	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:22	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:20	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:30:58	Ai Ogura	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:30:58	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:31:11	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3	+4
Luca Marini	13	9	+4
Francesco Bagnaia	10	7	+3
Miguel Oliveira	11	15	−4
Johann Zarco	2	5	−3
Fabio Quartararo	6	8	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	10→3	+5.6
Fermin Aldeguer	12→5	+4.9
Luca Marini	13→6	+4.5
Marc Marquez	1→1	+1.8
Brad Binder	9→7	+1.0
Jack Miller	8→8	−0.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.91%	+0.038	1	3	5.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.3 °C

Air

max 22.0 °C

68%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 11.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:20.372	—	23	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:21.091	—	17	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:20.481	+0.109	22	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:22.028	+1.16%	12	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:20.687	+0.315	23	302.5	Medium / Medium	1:21.414	+0.40%	17	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:20.880	+0.508	16	300.8	Soft / Medium	1:21.483	+0.48%	10	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:20.947	+0.575	20	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:22.468	+1.70%	7	Medium
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:20.982	+0.610	20	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:21.254	+0.20%	11	Medium
7	Joan Mir	01:21.014	+0.642	21	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:21.709	+0.76%	15	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.016	+0.644	22	298.3	Soft / Medium	1:21.655	+0.70%	10	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:21.072	+0.700	23	303.3	Medium / Medium	1:21.462	+0.46%	16	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.090	+0.718	22	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:21.724	+0.78%	16	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:21.219	+0.847	24	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:21.799	+0.87%	17	Medium
12	Fermin Aldeguer	01:21.244	+0.872	19	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:22.908	+2.24%	6	Medium
13	Pedro Acosta	01:21.253	+0.881	21	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:21.484	+0.49%	11	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:21.276	+0.904	19	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:21.958	+1.07%	10	Medium
15	Raul Fernandez	01:21.364	+0.992	22	296.7	Medium / Medium	1:21.770	+0.84%	8	Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.373	+1.001	21	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:21.655	+0.70%	10	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:21.411	+1.039	19	298.3	Soft / Medium	1:21.895	+0.99%	5	Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:21.478	+1.106	21	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:22.682	+1.96%	11	Medium
19	Ai Ogura	01:21.894	+1.522	26	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:22.486	+1.72%	22	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:22.739	+2.367	21	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:23.773	+3.31%	10	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Practice · 11.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:19.071	—	26	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:21.024	+0.50%	5	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:19.408	+0.337	27	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:21.386	+0.95%	14	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:19.461	+0.390	29	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:20.623	—	5	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:19.524	+0.453	30	300.0	Hard / Soft	1:20.967	+0.43%	12	Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	01:19.560	+0.489	27	303.3	Hard / Soft	1:20.930	+0.38%	14	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:19.592	+0.521	25	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:21.314	+0.86%	9	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:19.595	+0.524	26	305.9	Hard / Soft	1:21.016	+0.49%	10	Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:19.637	+0.566	28	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:21.369	+0.93%	11	Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:19.698	+0.627	26	306.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:19.733	+0.662	26	305.9	Hard / Soft	1:21.547	+1.15%	11	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	01:19.780	+0.709	26	303.3	Soft / Soft	1:21.125	+0.62%	6	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:19.964	+0.893	25	303.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Ai Ogura	01:20.004	+0.933	29	304.2	Hard / Soft	1:21.668	+1.30%	10	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:20.005	+0.934	30	302.5	Hard / Soft	1:21.434	+1.01%	16	Soft
15	Joan Mir	01:20.099	+1.028	28	303.3	Hard / Soft	1:21.442	+1.02%	5	Medium
16	Fermin Aldeguer	01:20.191	+1.120	24	300.8	Hard / Soft	1:21.324	+0.87%	5	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:20.202	+1.131	23	301.6	Hard / Soft	1:21.328	+0.87%	9	Soft
18	Luca Marini	01:20.309	+1.238	27	300.8	Hard / Soft	1:21.890	+1.57%	5	Soft
19	Alex Rins	01:20.668	+1.597	23	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:22.556	+2.40%	10	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:20.722	+1.651	29	301.6	Hard / Soft	1:22.529	+2.36%	12	Soft
Retired	Enea Bastianini		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 12.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.277	—	14	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.641	—	7	Wet-Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:28.474	+0.197	12	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.099	+0.51%	5	Wet-Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:28.680	+0.403	12	290.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:31.147	+1.68%	5	Wet-Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:29.089	+0.812	13	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.265	+0.70%	5	Wet-Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:29.173	+0.896	13	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.322	+0.76%	7	Wet-Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.197	+0.920	13	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.719	+1.20%	5	Wet-Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:29.216	+0.939	16	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.441	+0.89%	12	Wet-Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:29.264	+0.987	13	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.714	+1.20%	5	Wet-Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.455	+1.178	15	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.127	+0.54%	11	Wet-Soft
10	Luca Marini	01:29.548	+1.271	13	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:32.580	+3.28%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.591	+1.314	15	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:31.579	+2.16%	11	Wet-Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.729	+1.452	13	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:31.848	+2.46%	6	Wet-Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.750	+1.473	14	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:31.307	+1.86%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.966	+1.689	15	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:31.266	+1.81%	8	Wet-Soft
15	Joan Mir	01:30.009	+1.732	14	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.426	+0.88%	6	Wet-Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.190	+1.913	14	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:31.468	+2.04%	10	Wet-Soft
17	Alex Rins	01:30.301	+2.024	13	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:32.229	+2.89%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	01:30.538	+2.261	13	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:32.194	+2.85%	6	Wet-Soft
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.929	+2.652	14	278.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:33.066	+3.82%	7	Wet-Soft
20	Ai Ogura	01:31.702	+3.425	15	279.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:34.004	+4.87%	8	Wet-Soft

Q1 · 12.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:27.827	—	10	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:28.539	—	7	Wet-Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:28.049	+0.222	9	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:28.294	+0.467	9	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:28.355	+0.528	10	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Luca Marini	01:28.851	+1.024	9	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Raul Fernandez	01:28.925	+1.098	9	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:28.989	+1.162	9	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:29.228	+1.401	10	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Ai Ogura	01:30.104	+2.277	10	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:31.471	+3.31%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.453	+2.626	9	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q2 · 12.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:27.811	—	10	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.012	—	8	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:27.962	+0.151	10	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:29.347	+0.38%	8	Wet-Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.232	+0.421	9	293.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.109	+0.11%	6	Wet-Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.650	+0.839	8	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	01:28.779	+0.968	9	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:29.242	+1.431	9	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.892	+2.11%	7	Wet-Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.250	+1.439	9	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.327	+1.516	10	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.919	+2.14%	7	Wet-Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:29.471	+1.660	6	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:29.505	+1.694	9	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.753	+1.942	9	293.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:32.130	+3.50%	6	Wet-Soft
Retired	Maverick Viñales		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Sprint · 12.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	22:25.747	12	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.237	—	13	Wet-Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.938	9	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.554	+0.36%	13	Wet-Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	+4.361	7	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.703	+0.52%	13	Wet-Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+4.683	6	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.636	+0.45%	13	Wet-Soft
5	Jack Miller	+9.405	5	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.877	+0.72%	13	Wet-Soft
6	Brad Binder	+11.720	4	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.131	+1.00%	13	Wet-Soft
7	Johann Zarco	+12.090	3	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:29.842	+0.68%	13	Wet-Medium
8	Alex Marquez	+12.347	2	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.157	+1.03%	13	Wet-Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	+17.236	1	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:29.863	+0.70%	12	Wet-Soft
10	Fermin Aldeguer	+18.728	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.357	+1.26%	13	Wet-Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	+19.486	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.402	+1.31%	13	Wet-Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	+20.339	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.388	+1.29%	13	Wet-Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	+21.978	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.560	+1.48%	13	Wet-Soft
14	Joan Mir	+23.077	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.627	+1.56%	13	Wet-Soft
15	Alex Rins	+23.575	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.664	+1.60%	13	Wet-Soft
16	Luca Marini	+29.220	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:31.004	+1.98%	13	Wet-Medium
17	Ai Ogura	+31.433	0	15	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:30.933	+1.90%	13	Wet-Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+50.698	0	15	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:32.581	+3.75%	13	Wet-Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 13.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.802	—	7	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:29.135	—	5	Wet-Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:28.897	+0.095	7	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:29.426	+0.33%	4	Wet-Medium
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.530	+0.728	7	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Pedro Acosta	01:29.619	+0.817	7	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:29.997	+0.97%	5	Wet-Medium
5	Alex Marquez	01:29.665	+0.863	7	291.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.723	+0.921	6	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:29.730	+0.928	6	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:29.752	+0.950	7	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.907	+1.99%	5	Wet-Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.867	+1.065	7	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.299	+1.31%	5	Wet-Medium
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.890	+1.088	7	291.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.998	+2.09%	5	Wet-Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:29.905	+1.103	7	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.028	+1.00%	4	Wet-Medium
12	Brad Binder	01:29.983	+1.181	7	286.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.299	+1.31%	5	Wet-Medium
13	Raul Fernandez	01:30.006	+1.204	7	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:30.942	+2.03%	4	Wet-Medium
14	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.053	+1.251	7	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:30.440	+1.46%	5	Wet-Soft
15	Ai Ogura	01:30.866	+2.064	7	282.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:32.081	+3.31%	5	Wet-Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.002	+2.200	7	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:31.186	+2.30%	5	Wet-Medium
17	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.172	+2.370	7	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:32.718	+4.02%	5	Wet-Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:31.361	+2.559	7	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Race · 13.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	40:42.854	25	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.239	—	28	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+6.380	20	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.480	+0.30%	28	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+7.080	16	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.516	+0.34%	28	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	+18.738	13	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.000	+0.94%	28	Medium
5	Fermin Aldeguer	+18.916	11	30	Hard / Medium	1:21.976	+0.91%	28	Medium
6	Luca Marini	+24.743	10	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.127	+1.09%	27	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+24.820	9	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.100	+1.06%	28	Medium
8	Jack Miller	+25.757	8	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.119	+1.08%	28	Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	+25.859	7	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.202	+1.19%	28	Medium
10	Alex Rins	+39.419	6	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.681	+1.78%	28	Medium
Retired	Ai Ogura		0	21	Hard / Medium	1:21.908	+0.82%	19	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	17	Hard / Medium	1:21.253	+0.02%	15	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	21	Hard / Medium	1:21.988	+0.92%	19	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	17	Hard / Medium	1:21.736	+0.61%	15	Medium
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	19	Hard / Medium	1:22.532	+1.59%	16	Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	20	Hard / Medium	1:21.294	+0.07%	18	Medium
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	2	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:21.861*	—	+0.553	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	56%	2 ✓
2	Johann Zarco	43%	1 ✓
3	Fermin Aldeguer	29%	4
4	Joan Mir	21%	7
5	Luca Marini	19%	5
6	Raul Fernandez	11%	6
7	Miguel Oliveira	7%	3
8	Ai Ogura	4%	9
9	Alex Rins	3%	8
10	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	38%	66%	88%	1
2	Alex Marquez	22%	53%	81%	6
3	Pedro Acosta	14%	46%	76%	5
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	6%	32%	67%	8
5	Franco Morbidelli	4%	26%	54%	4
6	Jack Miller	6%	22%	56%	9
7	Marco Bezzecchi	1%	13%	41%	3
8	Fabio Quartararo	2%	14%	37%	7
9	Brad Binder	3%	8%	31%	10
10	Johann Zarco	2%	8%	25%	2
11	Francesco Bagnaia	2%	9%	28%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Maverick Viñales	12	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Maverick Viñales	12	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Franco Morbidelli	4	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	34%	66%	81%	89%	9%	1
Johann Zarco	2	20%	50%	65%	76%	21%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	3	14%	46%	66%	83%	14%	2
Pedro Acosta	4	10%	37%	59%	80%	16%	9
Alex Marquez	5	7%	29%	52%	84%	11%	8
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	22%	45%	82%	10%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	17%	36%	74%	15%	4
Jack Miller	8	2%	12%	32%	77%	9%	5
Brad Binder	9	1%	6%	17%	64%	18%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	10	1%	5%	15%	61%	12%	12
Miguel Oliveira	11	1%	4%	10%	53%	13%	11
Fermin Aldeguer	12	1%	3%	8%	49%	5%	10
Luca Marini	13	0%	2%	5%	36%	11%	16
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	1%	4%	30%	5%	13
Joan Mir	15	0%	1%	3%	18%	26%	14
Alex Rins	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	12%	15
Ai Ogura	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	5%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	13%	18
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	5%	—
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	9%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	37%	66%	77%	84%	16%	1
Johann Zarco	2	13%	40%	62%	80%	18%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	3	22%	55%	73%	84%	15%	—
Pedro Acosta	4	6%	27%	51%	80%	18%	—
Alex Marquez	5	2%	14%	34%	72%	23%	2
Fabio Quartararo	6	8%	32%	56%	83%	14%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	8%	34%	58%	83%	14%	—
Jack Miller	8	3%	17%	37%	70%	25%	8
Brad Binder	9	1%	8%	22%	74%	14%	7
Francesco Bagnaia	10	0%	2%	8%	54%	22%	3
Miguel Oliveira	11	0%	2%	8%	54%	22%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	12	0%	2%	8%	51%	26%	5
Luca Marini	13	0%	0%	1%	26%	8%	6
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	0%	2%	35%	19%	9
Joan Mir	15	0%	0%	1%	22%	35%	—
Alex Rins	16	0%	0%	1%	21%	20%	10
Ai Ogura	17	0%	0%	0%	13%	23%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	26%	—
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	16%	—
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	13%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fabio Di Giannantonio	19% → 34%	+15	5% → 8%
Marco Bezzecchi	44% → 55%	+11	15% → 22%
Fabio Quartararo	23% → 32%	+9	5% → 8%
Dropping
Alex Marquez	28% → 14%	−14	7% → 2%
Johann Zarco	51% → 40%	−11	21% → 13%
Pedro Acosta	36% → 27%	−9	10% → 6%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:29.237	—	+0.210	Wet-Soft	13
Marco Bezzecchi	1:29.554	+0.317	+0.553	Wet-Soft	13
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:29.636	+0.399	+0.320	Wet-Soft	13
Fabio Quartararo	1:29.703	+0.466	+0.275	Wet-Soft	13
Johann Zarco	1:29.842	+0.605	+0.344	Wet-Medium	13
Pedro Acosta	1:29.863	+0.626	+0.448	Wet-Soft	12
Jack Miller	1:29.877	+0.640	+0.105	Wet-Soft	13
Brad Binder	1:30.131	+0.894	+0.327	Wet-Soft	13
Alex Marquez	1:30.157	+0.920	+0.356	Wet-Soft	13
Fermin Aldeguer	1:30.357	+1.120	+0.884	Wet-Soft	13
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.388	+1.151	+0.221	Wet-Soft	13
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.402	+1.165	+0.193	Wet-Soft	13
Raul Fernandez	1:30.560	+1.323	+0.667	Wet-Soft	13
Joan Mir	1:30.627	+1.390	+0.562	Wet-Soft	13
Alex Rins	1:30.664	+1.427	+0.217	Wet-Soft	13
Ai Ogura	1:30.933	+1.696	+0.300	Wet-Soft	13
Luca Marini	1:31.004	+1.767	+0.308	Wet-Medium	13
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.581	+3.344	+0.781	Wet-Soft	13

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	307	—
2	Alex Marquez	239	−68
3	Francesco Bagnaia	181	−126
4	Franco Morbidelli	139	−168
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	136	−171
6	Marco Bezzecchi	121	−186

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

7/30

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.804 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P13 to P2.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Pedro Acosta (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:21.093	—	+0.356	Medium	12
Jorge Martin	1:21.116	+0.023	+0.457	Medium	26
Miguel Oliveira	1:21.164	+0.071	+0.193	Medium	14
Marc Marquez	1:21.305	+0.212	+0.210	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:21.374	+0.281	+0.512	Medium	28
Brad Binder	1:21.483	+0.390	+0.327	Medium	17
Maverick Viñales	1:21.568	+0.475	+0.292	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:21.576	+0.483	+0.553	Medium	28
Fabio Quartararo	1:21.797	+0.704	+0.275	Medium	27
Augusto Fernandez	1:21.951	+0.858	+0.437	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.59%	+0.025	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.