MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 9 of 22 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2025

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976
20.06 – 22.06.2025
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team41:09.21425
2Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+1.94220
3Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+2.13616
4Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+5.08113
5Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+9.32911
6Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+16.86610
7Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+18.5269
8Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+19.3498
9Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+19.3777
10Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+21.9436
11Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+22.8775
12Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+25.5784
13Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+26.1233
14Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+26.1302
15Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+28.1551
16Takaaki NakagamiHondaHonda HRC Castrol+33.1100
17Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+40.9000
18Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+70.0750
DNFEnea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3Out on lap 10
DNFJack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCRRetired0
DNFMaverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3Retired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team19:31.41612
2Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+1.4419
3Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+2.5617
4Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+3.0996
5Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+4.1395
6Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+6.3914
7Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+7.6313
8Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+8.9262
9Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+10.3611
10Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+11.0960
11Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+11.8700
12Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+12.9300
13Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+13.9160
14Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+15.4600
15Takaaki NakagamiHondaHonda HRC Castrol+17.0380
16Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+20.0310
17Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+20.7290
18Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+24.6610
19Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+31.5390
DNFBrad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingOut on lap 10
DNFJohann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCROut on lap 10
DNFPedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingOut on lap 10

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarc Marquez · 31% ✓Marc Marquez · 31% · from P10.81 / 0.812.6 / 2.5
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 28% ✓Marc Marquez · 28% · from P10.73 / 0.732.8 / 2.8
Race (after the sprint)Marc Marquez · 39% ✓Marc Marquez · 39% · from P10.89 / 0.732.2 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales1:47.011—+0.292Soft6
Marc Marquez1:47.083+0.072+0.210Soft21
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:47.207+0.196+0.320Soft20
Alex Marquez1:47.283+0.272+0.356Soft20
Francesco Bagnaia1:47.338+0.327+0.221Soft21
Fermin Aldeguer1:47.473+0.462+0.884Soft20
Marco Bezzecchi1:47.512+0.501+0.553Soft21
Jack Miller1:47.776+0.765+0.105Soft7
Franco Morbidelli1:47.805+0.794+0.512Soft21
Raul Fernandez1:47.975+0.964+0.667Soft21
Brad Binder1:48.029+1.018+0.327Soft21
Ai Ogura1:48.042+1.031+0.300Soft21
Pedro Acosta1:48.049+1.038+0.448Soft21
Takaaki Nakagami1:48.112+1.101+0.359Soft21
Joan Mir1:48.148+1.137+0.562Soft21
Alex Rins1:48.178+1.167+0.217Soft21
Fabio Quartararo1:48.182+1.171+0.275Soft21
Miguel Oliveira1:48.273+1.262+0.193Soft21
Lorenzo Savadori1:48.785+1.774+0.781Soft21
Somkiat Chantra1:49.357+2.346+0.221Soft20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

56
Overtakes
5
Lead changes
3 leaders
18/23
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.942 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Ai Ogura, from P21 to P10.

Longest battle: Joan Mir vs Miguel Oliveira (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

33
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
8/11
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.441 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Bezzecchi, from P10 to P6.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:02:59Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:02:59Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:04:33Pedro AcostaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:04:33Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:05:16Somkiat ChantraLong lapDouble long lap penalty due to incorrect grid procedure
Race14:08:34Somkiat ChantraLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:09:51Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:10:02Somkiat ChantraLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:17:39Maverick ViñalesCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:19:24Franco MorbidelliLong lapLong lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race14:20:56Jack MillerRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:21:14Franco MorbidelliLong lapLong lap penalty due to incorrect long lap execution
Race14:24:17Franco MorbidelliLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETE

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.90%+0.047139.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
29.9 °C
Air
max 30.4 °C
40%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
7 km/h
Wind
gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:46.199—19358.8Hard / Medium1:46.846—5Medium
2Pedro Acosta01:46.199—17355.2Hard / Medium——
3Brad Binder01:46.252+0.05318362.4Soft / Medium——
4Marc Marquez01:46.293+0.09418358.8Soft / Medium——
5Fabio Di Giannantonio01:46.586+0.38717352.9Soft / Medium——
6Fabio Quartararo01:46.615+0.41616354.0Hard / Medium——
7Maverick Viñales01:46.648+0.44918356.4Soft / Medium——
8Francesco Bagnaia01:46.651+0.45215356.4Soft / Medium——
9Alex Marquez01:46.706+0.50716351.7Soft / Medium——
10Johann Zarco01:46.856+0.65716352.9Hard / Medium——
11Jack Miller01:46.898+0.69916351.7Hard / Medium——
12Alex Rins01:46.915+0.71615350.6Hard / Medium——
13Miguel Oliveira01:46.953+0.75418350.6Soft / Medium——
14Franco Morbidelli01:46.974+0.77518351.7Soft / Medium1:47.188+0.32%4Medium
15Ai Ogura01:47.049+0.85017350.6Hard / Medium1:48.121+1.19%5Medium
16Enea Bastianini01:47.275+1.07617352.9Soft / Medium1:47.882+0.97%6Medium
17Takaaki Nakagami01:47.292+1.09317351.7Soft / Medium——
18Fermin Aldeguer01:47.323+1.12415352.9Soft / Medium——
19Raul Fernandez01:47.443+1.24415350.6Soft / Medium——
20Joan Mir01:47.818+1.61915350.6Soft / Medium——
21Somkiat Chantra01:47.888+1.68919345.0Soft / Medium——
22Lorenzo Savadori01:48.098+1.89916352.9Hard / Medium——
Practice · 20.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales01:44.634—21355.2Medium / Soft1:46.261—5Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:44.744+0.11021355.2Medium / Soft——
3Marc Marquez01:44.780+0.14624350.6Medium / Soft——
4Alex Marquez01:44.787+0.15324349.5Medium / Soft1:46.523+0.25%5Medium
5Fabio Quartararo01:44.945+0.31119351.7Medium / Soft——
6Marco Bezzecchi01:44.995+0.36126357.6Medium / Soft1:46.837+0.54%10Medium
7Alex Rins01:45.084+0.45022352.9Medium / Soft——
8Pedro Acosta01:45.100+0.46622361.2Medium / Soft1:46.417+0.15%5Soft
9Franco Morbidelli01:45.144+0.51022351.7Medium / Soft1:46.763+0.47%4Medium
10Fabio Di Giannantonio01:45.279+0.64523351.7Medium / Soft——
11Miguel Oliveira01:45.404+0.77023354.0Medium / Soft——
12Enea Bastianini01:45.405+0.77121360.0Medium / Soft——
13Jack Miller01:45.441+0.80718354.0Medium / Soft——
14Raul Fernandez01:45.486+0.85221357.6Medium / Soft——
15Fermin Aldeguer01:45.610+0.97619350.6Medium / Soft——
16Joan Mir01:45.652+1.01824350.6Medium / Soft——
17Johann Zarco01:45.881+1.24721355.2Medium / Soft——
18Brad Binder01:45.898+1.26421360.0Medium / Soft——
19Ai Ogura01:45.998+1.36423356.4Medium / Soft1:47.143+0.83%4Soft
20Takaaki Nakagami01:46.068+1.43424351.7Medium / Soft——
21Lorenzo Savadori01:46.341+1.70722357.6Medium / Soft——
22Somkiat Chantra01:47.327+2.69319350.6Hard / Soft——
FP2 · 21.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales01:45.742—14352.9Medium / Soft1:46.571+0.10%6Medium
2Marc Marquez01:45.758+0.01613352.9Medium / Soft——
3Fabio Quartararo01:45.846+0.10412349.5Medium / Soft——
4Alex Marquez01:45.952+0.21014352.9Medium / Soft1:46.468—5Soft
5Pedro Acosta01:45.974+0.23212360.0Hard / Soft1:46.806+0.32%5Medium
6Fabio Di Giannantonio01:46.021+0.27912355.2Medium / Soft——
7Marco Bezzecchi01:46.060+0.31814360.0Medium / Soft1:46.684+0.20%5Soft
8Franco Morbidelli01:46.062+0.32014360.0Medium / Soft——
9Fermin Aldeguer01:46.090+0.3489352.9Medium / Soft——
10Francesco Bagnaia01:46.190+0.44812355.2Medium / Soft——
11Enea Bastianini01:46.387+0.64511361.2Medium / Soft——
12Joan Mir01:46.454+0.71213350.6Medium / Soft——
13Takaaki Nakagami01:46.468+0.72611350.6Medium / Soft——
14Brad Binder01:46.526+0.78412358.8Medium / Soft1:46.725+0.24%5Soft
15Ai Ogura01:46.572+0.83011354.0Medium / Soft——
16Raul Fernandez01:46.644+0.90212348.3Medium / Soft——
17Miguel Oliveira01:46.649+0.90711354.0Medium / Soft——
18Johann Zarco01:46.675+0.93311347.2Medium / Soft——
19Alex Rins01:46.689+0.94713352.9Medium / Soft——
20Jack Miller01:46.909+1.16712354.0Medium / Soft——
21Lorenzo Savadori01:47.324+1.58210355.2Medium / Soft——
22Somkiat Chantra01:48.072+2.33012352.9Medium / Soft——
Q1 · 21.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Fermin Aldeguer01:44.894—7346.1Medium / Soft
2Raul Fernandez01:45.137+0.2437352.9Medium / Soft
3Jack Miller01:45.151+0.2576350.6Medium / Soft
4Johann Zarco01:45.185+0.2918357.6Medium / Soft
5Brad Binder01:45.331+0.4378361.2Medium / Soft
6Enea Bastianini01:45.370+0.4768355.2Medium / Soft
7Miguel Oliveira01:45.469+0.5756352.9Medium / Soft
8Joan Mir01:45.614+0.7207348.3Medium / Soft
9Takaaki Nakagami01:45.664+0.7708352.9Medium / Soft
10Lorenzo Savadori01:45.718+0.8247355.2Medium / Soft
11Ai Ogura01:45.802+0.9086354.0Medium / Soft
12Somkiat Chantra01:46.799+1.9056348.3Medium / Soft
Q2 · 21.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marc Marquez01:44.169—7351.7Medium / Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:44.228+0.0598351.7Medium / Soft
3Alex Marquez01:44.252+0.0837354.0Medium / Soft
4Fabio Quartararo01:44.411+0.2427346.1Medium / Soft
5Maverick Viñales01:44.514+0.3457349.5Medium / Soft
6Franco Morbidelli01:44.568+0.3998356.4Medium / Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio01:44.723+0.5548356.4Medium / Soft
8Pedro Acosta01:44.780+0.6117352.9Medium / Soft
9Alex Rins01:44.844+0.6758347.2Medium / Soft
10Marco Bezzecchi01:44.899+0.7308357.6Medium / Soft
11Raul Fernandez01:44.995+0.8264354.0Medium / Soft
12Fermin Aldeguer01:45.199+1.0303343.9Medium / Soft
Sprint · 21.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez19:31.4161211Medium / Soft1:46.099—9Soft
2Alex Marquez+1.441911Medium / Soft1:46.283+0.17%9Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia+2.561711Medium / Soft1:46.288+0.18%8Soft
4Maverick Viñales+3.099611Medium / Soft1:46.268+0.16%9Soft
5Fabio Di Giannantonio+4.139511Medium / Soft1:46.325+0.21%9Soft
6Marco Bezzecchi+6.391411Medium / Soft1:46.533+0.41%9Soft
7Franco Morbidelli+7.631311Medium / Soft1:46.791+0.65%9Soft
8Raul Fernandez+8.926211Medium / Soft1:46.574+0.45%9Soft
9Fermin Aldeguer+10.361111Medium / Soft1:46.616+0.49%9Soft
10Fabio Quartararo+11.096011Medium / Soft1:47.096+0.94%9Soft
11Enea Bastianini+11.870011Medium / Soft1:46.904+0.76%9Soft
12Ai Ogura+12.930011Medium / Soft1:46.958+0.81%9Soft
13Miguel Oliveira+13.916011Medium / Soft1:47.028+0.88%9Soft
14Joan Mir+15.460011Medium / Soft1:47.265+1.10%9Soft
15Takaaki Nakagami+17.038011Medium / Soft1:47.271+1.11%9Soft
16Jack Miller+20.031011Hard / Soft1:47.996+1.79%9Soft
17Lorenzo Savadori+20.729011Medium / Soft1:47.521+1.34%9Soft
18Alex Rins+24.661011Medium / Soft1:47.089+0.93%8Soft
19Somkiat Chantra+31.539011Medium / Soft1:48.733+2.48%9Soft
Out on lap 1Brad Binder00— / ———
Out on lap 1Johann Zarco00— / ———
Out on lap 1Pedro Acosta00— / ———
Warm Up · 22.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marco Bezzecchi01:45.857—6360.0Medium / Soft
2Marc Marquez01:45.951+0.0946352.9Medium / Soft
3Fabio Di Giannantonio01:46.061+0.2046357.6Soft / Soft
4Alex Marquez01:46.097+0.2406352.9Medium / Soft
5Franco Morbidelli01:46.235+0.3786355.2Medium / Soft
6Fermin Aldeguer01:46.253+0.3966348.3Medium / Soft
7Pedro Acosta01:46.255+0.3986358.8Medium / Soft
8Johann Zarco01:46.262+0.4056354.0Medium / Soft
9Fabio Quartararo01:46.282+0.4255347.2Medium / Medium
10Enea Bastianini01:46.435+0.5786361.2Medium / Soft
11Miguel Oliveira01:46.450+0.5936356.4Medium / Soft
12Maverick Viñales01:46.514+0.6576351.7Medium / Soft
13Brad Binder01:46.660+0.8036360.0Medium / Soft
14Jack Miller01:46.676+0.8196361.2Medium / Medium
15Alex Rins01:46.686+0.8296350.6Medium / Medium
16Raul Fernandez01:46.736+0.8796349.5Medium / Soft
17Joan Mir01:46.757+0.9006354.0Medium / Soft
18Takaaki Nakagami01:46.783+0.9266350.6Medium / Soft
19Francesco Bagnaia01:46.833+0.9766357.6Medium / Soft
20Ai Ogura01:47.443+1.5866354.0Medium / Soft
21Lorenzo Savadori01:47.462+1.6056357.6Medium / Soft
22Somkiat Chantra01:48.104+2.2476352.9Medium / Soft
Race · 22.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez41:09.2142523Medium / Soft1:47.083+0.07%21Soft
2Alex Marquez+1.9422023Medium / Soft1:47.283+0.25%20Soft
3Fabio Di Giannantonio+2.1361623Medium / Soft1:47.207+0.18%20Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia+5.0811323Medium / Soft1:47.338+0.31%21Soft
5Marco Bezzecchi+9.3291123Medium / Soft1:47.512+0.47%21Soft
6Franco Morbidelli+16.8661023Medium / Soft1:47.805+0.74%21Soft
7Raul Fernandez+18.526923Medium / Soft1:47.975+0.90%21Soft
8Pedro Acosta+19.349823Hard / Soft1:48.049+0.97%21Soft
9Brad Binder+19.377723Medium / Soft1:48.029+0.95%21Soft
10Ai Ogura+21.943623Medium / Soft1:48.042+0.96%21Soft
11Joan Mir+22.877523Medium / Soft1:48.148+1.06%21Soft
12Fermin Aldeguer+25.578423Medium / Soft1:47.473+0.43%20Soft
13Miguel Oliveira+26.123323Medium / Soft1:48.273+1.18%21Soft
14Fabio Quartararo+26.130223Medium / Soft1:48.182+1.09%21Soft
15Alex Rins+28.155123Medium / Soft1:48.178+1.09%21Soft
16Takaaki Nakagami+33.110023Medium / Soft1:48.112+1.03%21Soft
17Lorenzo Savadori+40.900023Medium / Soft1:48.785+1.66%21Soft
18Somkiat Chantra+70.075023Medium / Soft1:49.357+2.19%20Soft
Out on lap 1Enea Bastianini00— / ———
RetiredJack Miller09Medium / Soft1:47.776+0.72%7Soft
RetiredJohann Zarco03Medium / Soft——
RetiredMaverick Viñales08Medium / Soft1:47.011—6Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Alex Marquez1:46.280*—+0.356Medium4
Maverick Viñales1:46.426*+0.146+0.292Medium4
Marco Bezzecchi1:46.502*+0.222+0.553Medium4
Marc Marquez1:46.540*+0.260+0.210Medium3
Franco Morbidelli1:46.763*+0.483+0.512Medium4
Jack Miller1:46.785*+0.505+0.105Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez131%63%79%89%10%1
Francesco Bagnaia220%53%71%85%13%3
Alex Marquez313%46%67%84%12%2
Fabio Quartararo411%38%62%87%9%10
Maverick Viñales56%28%53%85%9%4
Franco Morbidelli66%23%47%86%5%7
Fabio Di Giannantonio74%15%32%73%16%5
Pedro Acosta83%11%26%70%14%—
Alex Rins92%7%19%66%12%18
Marco Bezzecchi101%4%12%59%15%6
Raul Fernandez111%4%11%57%3%8
Fermin Aldeguer121%3%7%46%5%9
Jack Miller130%2%5%34%9%16
Johann Zarco141%2%3%23%20%—
Brad Binder150%1%2%17%17%—
Enea Bastianini160%1%2%16%8%11
Miguel Oliveira170%1%1%9%14%13
Joan Mir180%0%1%5%25%14
Takaaki Nakagami190%0%1%4%10%15
Lorenzo Savadori200%0%0%2%14%17
Ai Ogura210%0%0%2%6%12
Somkiat Chantra220%0%0%1%6%19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez139%68%78%83%16%1
Francesco Bagnaia214%45%63%75%23%4
Alex Marquez318%49%67%77%23%2
Fabio Quartararo40%2%10%56%14%14
Maverick Viñales516%52%72%85%12%—
Franco Morbidelli62%13%34%75%16%6
Fabio Di Giannantonio77%33%58%81%14%3
Pedro Acosta81%10%29%72%19%8
Alex Rins90%2%9%50%21%15
Marco Bezzecchi102%12%32%77%15%5
Raul Fernandez111%6%21%66%20%7
Fermin Aldeguer121%6%19%63%23%12
Jack Miller130%0%1%10%25%—
Johann Zarco140%0%1%23%17%—
Brad Binder150%0%0%15%14%9
Enea Bastianini160%1%3%36%15%—
Miguel Oliveira170%0%2%21%21%13
Joan Mir180%0%0%8%35%11
Takaaki Nakagami190%0%0%12%14%16
Lorenzo Savadori200%0%0%2%25%17
Ai Ogura210%0%1%12%18%10
Somkiat Chantra220%0%0%1%17%18

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Maverick Viñales29% → 52%+238% → 16%
Fabio Di Giannantonio18% → 33%+154% → 7%
Alex Marquez39% → 49%+1113% → 18%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo37% → 2%−3512% → 0%
Franco Morbidelli25% → 13%−127% → 2%
Alex Rins9% → 2%−72% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marc Marquez1:46.099—+0.210Soft9
Maverick Viñales1:46.268+0.169+0.292Soft9
Alex Marquez1:46.283+0.184+0.356Soft9
Francesco Bagnaia1:46.288+0.189+0.221Soft8
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:46.325+0.226+0.320Soft9
Marco Bezzecchi1:46.533+0.434+0.553Soft9
Raul Fernandez1:46.574+0.475+0.667Soft9
Fermin Aldeguer1:46.616+0.517+0.884Soft9
Franco Morbidelli1:46.791+0.692+0.512Soft9
Enea Bastianini1:46.904+0.805+0.319Soft9
Ai Ogura1:46.958+0.859+0.300Soft9
Miguel Oliveira1:47.028+0.929+0.193Soft9
Alex Rins1:47.089+0.990+0.217Soft8
Fabio Quartararo1:47.096+0.997+0.275Soft9
Joan Mir1:47.265+1.166+0.562Soft9
Takaaki Nakagami1:47.271+1.172+0.359Soft9
Lorenzo Savadori1:47.521+1.422+0.781Soft9
Jack Miller1:47.996+1.897+0.105Soft9
Somkiat Chantra1:48.733+2.634+0.221Soft9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · ViñalesS2 · M. MarquezS3 · QuartararoS4 · Bezzecchi

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
46%
Front row on the podium
0.80
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

27
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.799 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P14 to P7.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2024 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:46.322—+0.221Soft21
Jorge Martin1:46.385+0.063+0.457Soft21
Enea Bastianini1:46.390+0.068+0.319Soft21
Marc Marquez1:46.408+0.086+0.210Soft21
Pedro Acosta1:46.663+0.341+0.448Soft21
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:46.673+0.351+0.320Soft21
Maverick Viñales1:46.738+0.416+0.292Medium21
Franco Morbidelli1:46.771+0.449+0.512Soft21
Alex Marquez1:46.866+0.544+0.356Soft21
Brad Binder1:46.980+0.658+0.327Soft21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2214%
20254/2218%
20243/2413%
20233/2214%
20224/2615%
20215/2223%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft96%+0.74%+0.0321311.2
Medium4%+0.39%+0.055008.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.