Round 8 of 22 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2025

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

06.06 – 08.06.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:11.195	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.107	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.029	16
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.657	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.363	11
6	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.889	10
7	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+14.938	9
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+16.022	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+18.321	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+19.190	6
11	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+19.646	5
12	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+24.624	4
13	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+25.986	3
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+26.761	2
15	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+27.122	1
16	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+37.117	0
17	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+43.588	0
18	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+86.319	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:43.026	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.080	9
3	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+4.630	7
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.944	6
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.095	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.379	4
7	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+7.213	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.343	2
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.982	1
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+11.427	0
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.331	0
12	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.017	0
13	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+16.494	0
14	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.202	0
15	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+18.287	0
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+19.284	0
17	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+19.841	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+23.763	0
19	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+31.069	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.79 / 0.79	2.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 27% ✓	Marc Marquez · 27% · from P1	0.75 / 0.75	2.2 / 2.2
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 41% ✓	Marc Marquez · 41% · from P1	0.76 / 0.75	2.2 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:47.130	—	+0.210	Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.290	+0.160	+0.221	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:47.300	+0.170	+0.356	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:47.583	+0.453	+0.327	Medium	9
Pedro Acosta	1:47.586	+0.456	+0.448	Medium	21
Fermin Aldeguer	1:47.646	+0.516	+0.884	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:47.685	+0.555	+0.512	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.707	+0.577	+0.553	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:47.795	+0.665	+0.562	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:47.918	+0.788	+0.292	Medium	20
Raul Fernandez	1:47.980	+0.850	+0.667	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:48.019	+0.889	+0.320	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:48.045	+0.915	+0.217	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:48.107	+0.977	+0.319	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:48.175	+1.045	+0.193	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:48.231	+1.101	+0.344	Medium	6
Jack Miller	1:48.237	+1.107	+0.105	Medium	20
Augusto Fernandez	1:48.246	+1.116	+0.437	Medium	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:48.254	+1.124	+0.275	Medium	10
Somkiat Chantra	1:48.719	+1.589	+0.221	Medium	21
Lorenzo Savadori	1:48.772	+1.642	+0.781	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.107 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Bezzecchi, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Francesco Bagnaia (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/11

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.080 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Bezzecchi, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Fermin Aldeguer vs Pedro Acosta (6 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:05:33	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:07:08	Jack Miller	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:07:27	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:12:56	Jack Miller	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Sprint	15:18:18	Augusto Fernandez	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	14:18:11	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:22:34	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:20	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:37:54	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	14	10	+4
Marco Bezzecchi	20	16	+4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	8	+2
Maverick Viñales	8	12	−4
Franco Morbidelli	3	7	−4
Miguel Oliveira	16	18	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marco Bezzecchi	20→8	+7.0
Joan Mir	11→7	+2.3
Marc Marquez	1→1	+1.8
Lorenzo Savadori	19→17	−2.6
Jack Miller	14→14	−2.8
Maverick Viñales	8→18	−10.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.79%	−0.040	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.0 °C

Air

max 28.0 °C

37%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 06.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.974	—	18	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:47.416	—	5	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	01:47.944	+0.970	19	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:48.317	+0.84%	15	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.995	+1.021	19	344.0	Hard / Medium	1:48.873	+1.36%	10	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:47.998	+1.024	17	338.6	Soft / Medium	1:49.675	+2.10%	5	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:48.077	+1.103	17	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:49.230	+1.69%	6	Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	01:48.078	+1.104	15	345.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:48.293	+1.319	17	340.7	Hard / Medium	1:49.061	+1.53%	6	Medium
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:48.298	+1.324	15	340.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.319	+1.345	19	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:50.469	+2.84%	12	Medium
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.482	+1.508	17	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:50.439	+2.81%	13	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.488	+1.514	18	342.9	Hard / Medium	1:52.215	+4.47%	6	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:48.488	+1.514	18	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:49.409	+1.86%	5	Medium
13	Brad Binder	01:48.500	+1.526	20	346.1	Hard / Medium	1:49.692	+2.12%	16	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:48.587	+1.613	17	342.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:48.592	+1.618	18	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:50.503	+2.87%	5	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:48.653	+1.679	15	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.477	+1.92%	5	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:48.930	+1.956	19	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:50.089	+2.49%	15	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	01:49.163	+2.189	16	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:50.872	+3.22%	5	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.435	+2.461	17	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:51.401	+3.71%	5	Medium
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:49.471	+2.497	17	336.5	Soft / Medium	1:51.682	+3.97%	5	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:50.135	+3.161	17	336.5	Hard / Medium	—			—

Practice · 06.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.397	—	23	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:47.914	—	11	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	01:46.601	+0.204	21	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.134	+0.20%	6	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:46.953	+0.556	24	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.950	+0.03%	8	Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:46.953	+0.556	22	337.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	01:47.000	+0.603	23	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:48.104	+0.18%	12	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:47.058	+0.661	20	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Brad Binder	01:47.096	+0.699	24	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:49.056	+1.06%	12	Soft
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:47.130	+0.733	21	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:50.323	+2.23%	5	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.185	+0.788	20	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:48.988	+1.00%	5	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.213	+0.816	20	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:50.234	+2.15%	5	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.222	+0.825	26	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:48.310	+0.37%	13	Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.241	+0.844	20	338.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Enea Bastianini	01:47.471	+1.074	21	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:52.171	+3.95%	5	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:47.480	+1.083	21	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.602	+1.56%	6	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:47.509	+1.112	21	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:50.923	+2.79%	5	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:47.552	+1.155	21	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.796	+0.82%	4	Medium
17	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.623	+1.226	20	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:50.180	+2.10%	6	Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.842	+1.445	22	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.481	+0.53%	6	Medium
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.123	+1.726	20	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.960	+1.90%	4	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.290	+1.893	20	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:51.020	+2.88%	10	Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	01:48.501	+2.104	21	337.5	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 07.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.607	—	14	352.9	Medium / Medium	1:47.376	—	7	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:46.748	+0.141	14	354.1	Hard / Soft	1:48.123	+0.70%	5	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.772	+0.165	15	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:47.533	+0.15%	4	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:46.942	+0.335	14	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:47.039	+0.432	13	351.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.002	+1.51%	4	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.065	+0.458	14	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:47.778	+0.37%	5	Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.070	+0.463	13	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.109	+0.502	13	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:48.041	+0.62%	6	Soft
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:47.346	+0.739	12	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:47.661	+0.27%	5	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:47.375	+0.768	7	347.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:47.474	+0.867	13	348.4	Medium / Soft	1:48.073	+0.65%	6	Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:47.607	+1.000	11	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:48.344	+0.90%	6	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:47.634	+1.027	13	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:48.102	+0.68%	5	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:47.672	+1.065	13	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.765	+1.158	12	351.8	Medium / Medium	1:49.685	+2.15%	5	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	01:47.832	+1.225	12	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:48.170	+0.74%	5	Medium
17	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.858	+1.251	12	344.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.870	+1.263	14	348.4	Medium / Medium	1:52.129	+4.43%	5	Soft
19	Enea Bastianini	01:47.928	+1.321	13	351.8	Medium / Soft	1:50.062	+2.50%	5	Soft
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:48.905	+2.298	13	345.0	Medium / missing	1:50.036	+2.48%	5	missing
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:49.021	+2.414	11	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 07.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.610	—	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.631	+0.021	7	344.0	Medium / Soft
3	Raul Fernandez	01:46.711	+0.101	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:46.737	+0.127	7	347.3	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:46.764	+0.154	7	344.0	Medium / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.394	+0.784	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:47.453	+0.843	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.474	+0.864	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
9	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.620	+1.010	7	347.3	Medium / Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.684	+1.074	4	345.0	Medium / Soft
11	Somkiat Chantra	01:48.284	+1.674	8	342.9	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 07.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.704	—	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:45.964	+0.260	8	348.4	Medium / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.984	+0.280	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.307	+0.603	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:46.321	+0.617	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:46.333	+0.629	8	354.1	Medium / Soft
7	Fermin Aldeguer	01:46.360	+0.656	8	347.3	Medium / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:46.434	+0.730	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.441	+0.737	7	341.8	Medium / Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.703	+0.999	5	347.3	Medium / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:46.773	+1.069	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:46.775	+1.071	8	344.0	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 07.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	19:43.026	12	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.416	—	9	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+2.080	9	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.692	+0.26%	9	Soft
3	Fermin Aldeguer	+4.630	7	11	Medium / Medium	1:47.615	+0.19%	9	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+5.944	6	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.956	+0.50%	9	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	+6.095	5	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.732	+0.29%	9	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+6.379	4	11	Medium / Medium	1:47.705	+0.27%	9	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	+7.213	3	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.840	+0.40%	9	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+8.343	2	11	Medium / Medium	1:47.690	+0.26%	9	Medium
9	Brad Binder	+9.982	1	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.003	+0.55%	9	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+11.427	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.324	+0.85%	9	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	+13.331	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.263	+0.79%	9	Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	+14.017	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.493	+1.00%	9	Soft
13	Jack Miller	+16.494	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:48.442	+0.96%	9	Medium
14	Alex Rins	+17.202	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.523	+1.03%	9	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	+18.287	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:48.519	+1.03%	9	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	+19.284	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.694	+1.19%	9	Soft
17	Enea Bastianini	+19.841	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.538	+1.05%	8	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+23.763	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.169	+1.63%	9	Soft
19	Somkiat Chantra	+31.069	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.917	+2.33%	9	Soft
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:48.663	+1.16%	6	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 08.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.967	—	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
2	Alex Marquez	01:46.986	+0.019	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	01:47.054	+0.087	6	351.8	Medium / Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.059	+0.092	6	351.8	Medium / Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	01:47.140	+0.173	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.315	+0.348	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
7	Fermin Aldeguer	01:47.316	+0.349	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:47.417	+0.450	6	348.4	Medium / Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:47.420	+0.453	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:47.484	+0.517	6	356.4	Medium / Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.624	+0.657	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.838	+0.871	6	348.4	Medium / Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:47.845	+0.878	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.845	+0.878	5	348.4	Medium / Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:48.012	+1.045	6	347.3	Medium / Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:48.051	+1.084	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:48.552	+1.585	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:48.884	+1.917	4	349.5	Medium / Medium
19	Alex Rins	01:49.203	+2.236	2	340.7	Medium / Soft
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:49.971	+3.004	6	346.1	Soft / Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:50.948	+3.981	6	345.0	Hard / Medium

Race · 08.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:11.195	25	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.130	—	21	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+1.107	20	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.300	+0.16%	21	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.029	16	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.290	+0.15%	21	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	+7.657	13	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.586	+0.43%	21	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	+10.363	11	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.685	+0.52%	21	Medium
6	Fermin Aldeguer	+11.889	10	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.646	+0.48%	21	Medium
7	Joan Mir	+14.938	9	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.795	+0.62%	21	Medium
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.022	8	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.707	+0.54%	21	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+18.321	7	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.019	+0.83%	21	Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	+19.190	6	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.980	+0.79%	21	Medium
11	Alex Rins	+19.646	5	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.045	+0.85%	21	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	+24.624	4	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.107	+0.91%	21	Medium
13	Augusto Fernandez	+25.986	3	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.246	+1.04%	21	Medium
14	Jack Miller	+26.761	2	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.237	+1.03%	20	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	+27.122	1	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.175	+0.98%	21	Medium
16	Somkiat Chantra	+37.117	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.719	+1.48%	21	Medium
17	Lorenzo Savadori	+43.588	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.772	+1.53%	20	Medium
18	Maverick Viñales	+86.319	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.918	+0.74%	20	Medium
Retired	Brad Binder		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:47.583	+0.42%	9	Medium
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	12	Medium / Medium	1:48.254	+1.05%	10	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	8	Medium / Medium	1:48.231	+1.03%	6	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:47.228	—	+0.210	Medium	6
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.690	+0.462	+0.553	Medium	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.726*	+0.498	+0.221	Medium	4
Fermin Aldeguer	1:47.777*	+0.549	+0.884	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:47.791*	+0.563	+0.327	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:47.830*	+0.602	+0.292	Medium	4
Alex Marquez	1:47.922*	+0.694	+0.356	Medium	4
Pedro Acosta	1:48.063	+0.835	+0.448	Medium	5
Enea Bastianini	1:48.064*	+0.836	+0.319	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:48.110*	+0.882	+0.667	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:48.219	+0.991	+0.320	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.309	+1.081	+0.512	Medium	7
Miguel Oliveira	1:48.336*	+1.108	+0.193	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:48.407*	+1.179	+0.217	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marco Bezzecchi	56%	10
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	42%	1 ✓
3	Alex Rins	29%	5
4	Fabio Quartararo	20%	2 ✓
5	Raul Fernandez	19%	3
6	Jack Miller	11%	4
7	Enea Bastianini	7%	7
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	3%	6
10	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	9
11	Somkiat Chantra	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	65%	88%	1
2	Pedro Acosta	22%	54%	81%	5
3	Maverick Viñales	14%	46%	77%	8
4	Alex Marquez	6%	32%	67%	2
5	Brad Binder	4%	25%	53%	6
6	Franco Morbidelli	6%	22%	56%	3
7	Joan Mir	1%	13%	41%	11
8	Francesco Bagnaia	2%	14%	37%	4
9	Fermin Aldeguer	3%	8%	30%	7
10	Johann Zarco	2%	8%	25%	12
11	Fabio Quartararo	2%	9%	29%	9
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	4%	19%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	63%	79%	89%	10%	1
Alex Marquez	2	21%	54%	71%	86%	12%	2
Franco Morbidelli	3	16%	49%	71%	91%	5%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	4	10%	35%	59%	83%	13%	12
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	26%	50%	81%	14%	5
Brad Binder	6	4%	19%	39%	76%	17%	9
Fermin Aldeguer	7	4%	17%	38%	82%	6%	3
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	12%	29%	75%	9%	7
Fabio Quartararo	9	2%	7%	18%	69%	9%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	1%	5%	14%	58%	16%	6
Joan Mir	11	1%	4%	9%	45%	23%	—
Johann Zarco	12	1%	3%	6%	38%	21%	16
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	2%	5%	38%	3%	10
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	4%	29%	9%	13
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	13%	14
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	14%	15
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	8%	17
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	14%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	15%	18
Marco Bezzecchi	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	15%	8
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	6%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	41%	70%	78%	83%	16%	1
Alex Marquez	2	23%	55%	69%	76%	23%	2
Franco Morbidelli	3	8%	32%	54%	80%	16%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	4	2%	11%	27%	67%	23%	3
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	32%	54%	77%	19%	4
Brad Binder	6	3%	18%	39%	77%	14%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	7	10%	37%	58%	73%	24%	6
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	17%	40%	80%	13%	18
Fabio Quartararo	9	1%	6%	17%	67%	13%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	3%	16%	37%	78%	15%	9
Joan Mir	11	0%	2%	7%	40%	35%	7
Johann Zarco	12	0%	0%	1%	19%	17%	—
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	2%	9%	50%	20%	10
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	2%	28%	25%	14
Alex Rins	15	0%	0%	2%	22%	21%	11
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	0%	1%	16%	21%	15
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	0%	12%	15%	12
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	27%	13
Lorenzo Savadori	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	25%	17
Marco Bezzecchi	20	0%	2%	7%	45%	15%	8
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fermin Aldeguer	18% → 37%	+20	4% → 10%
Marc Marquez	56% → 70%	+14	27% → 41%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7% → 16%	+9	1% → 3%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	34% → 11%	−23	10% → 2%
Franco Morbidelli	43% → 32%	−10	16% → 8%
Brad Binder	25% → 18%	−8	7% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:47.416	—	+0.210	Soft	9
Fermin Aldeguer	1:47.615	+0.199	+0.884	Medium	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.690	+0.274	+0.553	Medium	9
Alex Marquez	1:47.692	+0.276	+0.356	Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:47.705	+0.289	+0.320	Medium	9
Pedro Acosta	1:47.732	+0.316	+0.448	Soft	9
Maverick Viñales	1:47.840	+0.424	+0.292	Soft	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:47.956	+0.540	+0.512	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:48.003	+0.587	+0.327	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:48.263	+0.847	+0.275	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:48.324	+0.908	+0.667	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:48.442	+1.026	+0.105	Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:48.493	+1.077	+0.221	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:48.519	+1.103	+0.193	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:48.523	+1.107	+0.217	Soft	9
Enea Bastianini	1:48.538	+1.122	+0.319	Soft	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:48.663	+1.247	+0.437	Soft	6
Johann Zarco	1:48.694	+1.278	+0.344	Soft	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:49.169	+1.753	+0.781	Soft	9
Somkiat Chantra	1:49.917	+2.501	+0.221	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	196	—
2	Alex Marquez	172	−24
3	Francesco Bagnaia	124	−72
4	Franco Morbidelli	98	−98
5	Johann Zarco	97	−99
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	88	−108

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.789 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:48.683	—	+0.210	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:48.882	+0.199	+0.457	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:49.113	+0.430	+0.356	Medium	15
Francesco Bagnaia	1:49.239	+0.556	+0.221	Medium	15
Brad Binder	1:49.407	+0.724	+0.327	Medium	21
Pedro Acosta	1:49.452	+0.769	+0.448	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:49.509	+0.826	+0.319	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:49.560	+0.877	+0.512	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:49.657	+0.974	+0.553	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:49.657	+0.974	+0.320	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.41%	−0.013	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.