Round 12 of 22 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2025

5.403 m · since 1930

18.07 – 20.07.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:04.628	25
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.753	20
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.366	16
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.879	13
5	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+10.045	11
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+11.039	10
7	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+15.820	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+17.371	8
9	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+18.163	7
10	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+18.669	6
11	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+19.781	5
12	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+20.778	4
13	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+20.961	3
14	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+21.904	2
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+22.563	1
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+24.729	0
17	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+27.640	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+28.310	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:05.883	12
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.798	9
3	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+1.324	7
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.409	6
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+2.292	5
6	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+3.358	4
7	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.648	3
8	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+3.920	2
9	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+4.748	1
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.902	0
11	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.000	0
12	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+6.379	0
13	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+7.081	0
14	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.612	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+8.681	0
16	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+8.992	0
17	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.404	0
18	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+9.871	0
19	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+11.487	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30%	Marc Marquez · 23% · from P2	0.53 / 0.53	3.4 / 3.4
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26%	Marc Marquez · 21% · from P2	0.77 / 0.77	2.7 / 2.8
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 33% ✓	Marc Marquez · 33% · from P2	0.80 / 0.77	2.3 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:54.220	—	+0.210	Medium	19
Marco Bezzecchi	1:54.268	+0.048	+0.553	Medium	19
Pedro Acosta	1:54.339	+0.119	+0.448	Medium	19
Francesco Bagnaia	1:54.359	+0.139	+0.221	Medium	19
Enea Bastianini	1:54.382	+0.162	+0.319	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:54.670	+0.450	+0.667	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:54.725	+0.505	+0.275	Medium	17
Pol Espargaro	1:54.869	+0.649	+0.406	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	1:54.890	+0.670	+0.457	Medium	19
Fermin Aldeguer	1:54.901	+0.681	+0.884	Medium	19
Brad Binder	1:54.955	+0.735	+0.327	Medium	19
Jack Miller	1:55.085	+0.865	+0.105	Medium	17
Johann Zarco	1:55.153	+0.933	+0.344	Soft	19
Luca Marini	1:55.156	+0.936	+0.308	Medium	19
Ai Ogura	1:55.166	+0.946	+0.300	Medium	18
Alex Rins	1:55.223	+1.003	+0.217	Medium	19
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:55.291	+1.071	+0.320	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:55.335	+1.115	+0.193	Medium	18
Augusto Fernandez	1:55.400	+1.180	+0.437	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

14/21

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.753 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Jorge Martin (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

7/10

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.798 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Ai Ogura vs Alex Marquez (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:05:06	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:06	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:12:03	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:35	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:06:08	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:17	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:28	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:14:33	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:58:54	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race	14:59:56		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #7

Sprint: 15 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	19	14	+5
Luca Marini	16	13	+3
Miguel Oliveira	17	15	+2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	18	−5
Pol Espargaro	14	19	−5
Johann Zarco	9	12	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	19→8	+6.4
Pedro Acosta	7→3	+3.7
Jorge Martin	12→7	+2.9
Miguel Oliveira	17→17	−3.9
Johann Zarco	9→13	−5.0
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13→16	−5.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+0.59%	−0.024	1	3	9.3
Soft	5%	+0.82%	−0.015	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.2 °C

Air

max 28.7 °C

39%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:54.606	—	9	321.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:55.221	+0.615	17	318.5	Soft / Medium	2:04.354	+6.38%	6	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:55.259	+0.653	15	320.4	Soft / Medium	1:57.050	+0.13%	5	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:55.371	+0.765	11	315.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Enea Bastianini	01:55.598	+0.992	13	319.5	Soft / Medium	1:57.809	+0.78%	5	Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	01:55.679	+1.073	18	322.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.932	+5.17%	11	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:55.864	+1.258	12	320.4	Soft / Medium	1:58.402	+1.29%	6	Medium
8	Luca Marini	01:55.945	+1.339	11	312.1	Soft / Medium	1:56.894	—	5	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:56.169	+1.563	10	318.5	Soft / Medium	1:59.240	+2.01%	7	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.187	+1.581	8	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:57.758	+0.74%	5	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.259	+1.653	16	317.6	Soft / Medium	1:59.094	+1.88%	8	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.272	+1.666	15	317.6	Soft / Medium	1:57.888	+0.85%	6	Medium
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:56.531	+1.925	15	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:58.394	+1.28%	7	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:56.541	+1.935	13	311.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Pol Espargaro	01:56.617	+2.011	14	320.4	Soft / Medium	1:57.685	+0.68%	7	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:57.073	+2.467	13	315.7	Soft / Medium	2:00.352	+2.96%	7	Medium
17	Jorge Martin	01:57.128	+2.522	14	319.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:57.431	+2.825	15	315.7	Soft / Medium	2:02.428	+4.73%	5	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:57.715	+3.109	12	312.1	Soft / Medium	2:08.605	+10.02%	5	Wet-Soft
20	Fermin Aldeguer	01:57.921	+3.315	10	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Brad Binder	01:58.830	+4.224	17	316.7	Soft / Medium	2:08.502	+9.93%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Ai Ogura	02:11.904	+17.298	7	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Practice · 18.07 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:03.935	—	20	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:07.629	+1.60%	7	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	02:04.404	+0.469	20	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:05.620	—	6	Wet-Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.465	+0.530	20	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:06.159	+0.43%	7	Wet-Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.492	+0.557	19	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:07.689	+1.65%	5	Wet-Soft
5	Jorge Martin	02:04.656	+0.721	20	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:07.151	+1.22%	11	Wet-Soft
6	Jack Miller	02:04.716	+0.781	18	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:09.840	+3.36%	5	Wet-Soft
7	Joan Mir	02:04.811	+0.876	20	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:06.573	+0.76%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	02:04.878	+0.943	20	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:06.490	+0.69%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Alex Marquez	02:04.993	+1.058	18	307.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:08.600	+2.37%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	02:05.218	+1.283	20	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:06.879	+1.00%	9	Wet-Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	02:05.257	+1.322	20	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:08.101	+1.98%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Fermin Aldeguer	02:05.305	+1.370	20	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:06.126	+0.40%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	02:05.440	+1.505	18	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	02:05.473	+1.538	18	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
15	Brad Binder	02:05.500	+1.565	20	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:08.027	+1.92%	11	Wet-Soft
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:05.627	+1.692	20	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:09.303	+2.93%	6	Wet-Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	02:05.752	+1.817	20	305.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:07.479	+1.48%	9	Wet-Soft
18	Augusto Fernandez	02:05.799	+1.864	21	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:09.388	+3.00%	12	Wet-Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.837	+1.902	19	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:08.245	+2.09%	6	Wet-Soft
20	Ai Ogura	02:06.308	+2.373	20	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:11.743	+4.87%	6	Wet-Soft
21	Takaaki Nakagami	02:06.482	+2.547	19	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:11.192	+4.44%	6	Wet-Soft
22	Luca Marini	02:06.805	+2.870	17	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:06.872	+1.00%	4	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 19.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:53.145	—	12	320.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:53.319	+0.174	11	319.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:53.600	+0.455	11	320.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Alex Marquez	01:53.613	+0.468	12	320.4	Medium / Medium	1:55.087	+0.95%	5	Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	01:53.641	+0.496	12	321.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.763	+0.618	12	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:54.006	—	6	Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	01:53.826	+0.681	13	322.3	Medium / Soft	1:54.200	+0.17%	5	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:53.926	+0.781	13	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:54.710	+0.62%	5	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.945	+0.800	12	323.3	Medium / Soft	1:54.508	+0.44%	5	Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:53.965	+0.820	13	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:54.665	+0.58%	5	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.012	+0.867	13	320.4	Medium / Soft	1:54.208	+0.18%	5	Soft
12	Jorge Martin	01:54.055	+0.910	11	321.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Raul Fernandez	01:54.093	+0.948	10	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Luca Marini	01:54.198	+1.053	11	316.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:54.232	+1.087	12	321.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:54.237	+1.092	12	322.3	Medium / Soft	1:54.587	+0.51%	5	Soft
17	Alex Rins	01:54.316	+1.171	11	318.5	Medium / Medium	1:55.863	+1.63%	5	Medium
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.333	+1.188	12	318.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Fermin Aldeguer	01:54.507	+1.362	11	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.512	+1.367	11	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:56.411	+2.11%	5	Soft
21	Ai Ogura	01:54.618	+1.473	11	319.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Augusto Fernandez	01:54.686	+1.541	13	317.6	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 19.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:52.715	—	6	320.4	Medium / Soft
2	Raul Fernandez	01:52.775	+0.060	7	320.4	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.872	+0.157	7	321.4	Medium / Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:53.021	+0.306	7	323.3	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:53.085	+0.370	7	321.4	Medium / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:53.157	+0.442	7	315.7	Medium / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.227	+0.512	7	322.3	Medium / Medium
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:53.341	+0.626	7	316.7	Medium / Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:53.561	+0.846	7	323.3	Medium / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:53.562	+0.847	7	315.7	Medium / Soft
11	Ai Ogura	01:53.737	+1.022	7	322.3	Medium / Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:53.744	+1.029	7	318.5	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 19.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:52.303	—	7	324.3	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:52.522	+0.219	5	322.3	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:52.608	+0.305	7	316.7	Medium / Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:52.644	+0.341	5	322.3	Medium / Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:52.763	+0.460	7	323.3	Medium / Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	01:52.796	+0.493	7	319.5	Medium / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:52.830	+0.527	7	323.3	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:52.850	+0.547	6	323.3	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:52.877	+0.574	6	316.7	Medium / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:52.980	+0.677	5	322.3	Medium / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:53.317	+1.014	7	324.3	Medium / Soft
12	Jorge Martin	01:53.614	+1.311	6	322.3	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 19.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	19:05.883	12	10	Medium / Medium	1:53.838	—	8	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	+0.798	9	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.296	+0.40%	7	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+1.324	7	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.212	+0.33%	7	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+1.409	6	10	Medium / Soft	1:54.161	+0.28%	6	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	+2.292	5	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.297	+0.40%	7	Medium
6	Raul Fernandez	+3.358	4	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.340	+0.44%	7	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.648	3	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.132	+0.26%	6	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	+3.920	2	10	Medium / Soft	1:54.336	+0.44%	8	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	+4.748	1	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.488	+0.57%	7	Medium
10	Brad Binder	+5.902	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.456	+0.54%	8	Medium
11	Jorge Martin	+6.000	0	10	Medium / Soft	1:54.853	+0.89%	7	Soft
12	Jack Miller	+6.379	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.544	+0.62%	8	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	+7.081	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.651	+0.71%	7	Medium
14	Fermin Aldeguer	+7.612	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.724	+0.78%	6	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+8.681	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.851	+0.89%	7	Medium
16	Ai Ogura	+8.992	0	10	Medium / Soft	1:54.657	+0.72%	7	Soft
17	Alex Marquez	+9.404	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.692	+0.75%	7	Medium
18	Alex Rins	+9.871	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.822	+0.86%	8	Medium
19	Joan Mir	+11.487	0	10	Medium / Medium	1:54.809	+0.85%	7	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	1	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	1	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 20.07

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:53.634	—	6	322.3	Medium / Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.656	+0.022	6	325.3	Medium / Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:53.735	+0.101	6	320.4	Medium / Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.766	+0.132	6	316.7	Medium / Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.827	+0.193	6	324.3	Medium / Hard
6	Ai Ogura	01:53.902	+0.268	6	322.3	Medium / Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:53.927	+0.293	5	323.3	Medium / Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	01:53.937	+0.303	6	322.3	Medium / Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:53.987	+0.353	5	316.7	Medium / Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:54.030	+0.396	6	323.3	Medium / Medium
11	Raul Fernandez	01:54.067	+0.433	5	315.7	Medium / Hard
12	Johann Zarco	01:54.103	+0.469	6	317.6	Medium / Soft
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:54.152	+0.518	6	320.4	Medium / Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.185	+0.551	6	323.3	Medium / Medium
15	Fermin Aldeguer	01:54.255	+0.621	6	321.4	Medium / Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:54.290	+0.656	6	319.5	Medium / Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:54.346	+0.712	6	322.3	Medium / Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:54.377	+0.743	6	319.5	Medium / Medium
19	Jorge Martin	01:54.382	+0.748	6	322.3	Medium / Medium
20	Pedro Acosta	01:54.520	+0.886	6	320.4	Medium / Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:54.694	+1.060	6	318.5	Medium / Medium

Race · 20.07

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	40:04.628	25	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.220	—	19	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+1.753	20	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.268	+0.04%	19	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	+3.366	16	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.339	+0.10%	19	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.879	13	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.359	+0.12%	19	Medium
5	Raul Fernandez	+10.045	11	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.670	+0.39%	19	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	+11.039	10	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.725	+0.44%	17	Medium
7	Jorge Martin	+15.820	9	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.890	+0.59%	19	Medium
8	Brad Binder	+17.371	8	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.955	+0.64%	19	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	+18.163	7	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.869	+0.57%	18	Medium
10	Jack Miller	+18.669	6	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.085	+0.76%	17	Medium
11	Fermin Aldeguer	+19.781	5	21	Medium / Medium	1:54.901	+0.60%	19	Medium
12	Luca Marini	+20.778	4	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.156	+0.82%	19	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	+20.961	3	21	Medium / Soft	1:55.153	+0.82%	19	Soft
14	Ai Ogura	+21.904	2	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.166	+0.83%	18	Medium
15	Alex Rins	+22.563	1	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.223	+0.88%	19	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+24.729	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.291	+0.94%	19	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	+27.640	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.335	+0.98%	18	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	+28.310	0	21	Medium / Medium	1:55.400	+1.03%	18	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	1	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	6	Medium / Medium	1:54.382	+0.14%	4	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	1	Medium / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:53.724	—	+0.210	Medium	5
Marco Bezzecchi	1:53.830*	+0.106	+0.553	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	1:53.972*	+0.248	+0.319	Medium	4
Alex Marquez	1:54.072	+0.348	+0.356	Medium	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:54.083*	+0.359	+0.320	Medium	4
Augusto Fernandez	1:54.174	+0.450	+0.437	Medium	5
Ai Ogura	1:54.193*	+0.469	+0.300	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:54.257*	+0.533	+0.327	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:54.259*	+0.535	+0.275	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:54.453	+0.729	+0.457	Medium	6
Francesco Bagnaia	1:54.662*	+0.938	+0.221	Medium	3
Pedro Acosta	1:54.715*	+0.991	+0.448	Medium	4
Luca Marini	1:54.720*	+0.996	+0.308	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Raul Fernandez	56%	2 ✓
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	43%	3
3	Pol Espargaro	29%	4
4	Francesco Bagnaia	20%	1 ✓
5	Alex Rins	19%	5
6	Fermin Aldeguer	11%	8
7	Brad Binder	7%	9
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	7
9	Luca Marini	3%	6
10	Augusto Fernandez	3%	12
11	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	10
12	Ai Ogura	2%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	38%	66%	88%	2
2	Fabio Quartararo	22%	53%	81%	3
3	Johann Zarco	14%	46%	77%	9
4	Jack Miller	5%	32%	67%	10
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	25%	54%	4
6	Alex Marquez	6%	22%	56%	8
7	Jorge Martin	1%	13%	41%	12
8	Joan Mir	2%	14%	37%	5
9	Pedro Acosta	3%	8%	30%	7
10	Enea Bastianini	2%	9%	25%	11
11	Raul Fernandez	2%	9%	28%	6
12	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	3%	19%	1

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Takaaki Nakagami	20	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	63%	78%	87%	12%	7
Marc Marquez	2	23%	57%	76%	89%	9%	1
Fabio Quartararo	3	15%	48%	69%	87%	10%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	4	11%	37%	59%	82%	14%	4
Joan Mir	5	6%	23%	44%	70%	26%	19
Raul Fernandez	6	5%	22%	47%	88%	5%	6
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	16%	34%	74%	16%	2
Alex Marquez	8	3%	12%	29%	75%	11%	17
Johann Zarco	9	1%	7%	17%	59%	21%	8
Jack Miller	10	1%	5%	14%	63%	9%	12
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	3%	10%	56%	8%	3
Jorge Martin	12	1%	3%	8%	49%	4%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	1%	2%	5%	33%	15%	—
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	1%	3%	26%	14%	9
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	11%	18
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	11%	15
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	13%	13
Fermin Aldeguer	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	4%	14
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	17%	10
Ai Ogura	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	5%	16
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	15%	41%	61%	76%	22%	4
Marc Marquez	2	33%	64%	76%	82%	16%	1
Fabio Quartararo	3	14%	48%	70%	85%	13%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	4	22%	56%	73%	82%	16%	2
Joan Mir	5	0%	3%	10%	46%	36%	—
Raul Fernandez	6	5%	24%	50%	77%	19%	5
Pedro Acosta	7	6%	29%	53%	77%	20%	3
Alex Marquez	8	0%	2%	6%	46%	23%	—
Johann Zarco	9	1%	8%	27%	72%	18%	13
Jack Miller	10	1%	3%	12%	56%	25%	10
Enea Bastianini	11	3%	19%	44%	79%	16%	—
Jorge Martin	12	0%	0%	1%	24%	21%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	1%	4%	39%	15%	16
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	1%	7%	49%	20%	9
Alex Rins	15	0%	0%	0%	10%	20%	15
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	0%	12%	8%	12
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	26%	23%	17
Fermin Aldeguer	18	0%	0%	1%	19%	24%	11
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	3%	34%	14%	8
Ai Ogura	20	0%	0%	0%	8%	28%	14
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi	39% → 56%	+17	12% → 22%
Enea Bastianini	5% → 19%	+14	1% → 3%
Marc Marquez	52% → 64%	+12	21% → 33%
Dropping
Joan Mir	22% → 3%	−20	6% → 0%
Francesco Bagnaia	53% → 41%	−12	26% → 15%
Alex Marquez	13% → 2%	−11	3% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:53.838	—	+0.210	Medium	8
Francesco Bagnaia	1:54.132	+0.294	+0.221	Medium	6
Marco Bezzecchi	1:54.161	+0.323	+0.553	Soft	6
Enea Bastianini	1:54.212	+0.374	+0.319	Medium	7
Pedro Acosta	1:54.296	+0.458	+0.448	Medium	7
Fabio Quartararo	1:54.297	+0.459	+0.275	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:54.336	+0.498	+0.344	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	1:54.340	+0.502	+0.667	Medium	7
Brad Binder	1:54.456	+0.618	+0.327	Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	1:54.488	+0.650	+0.406	Medium	7
Jack Miller	1:54.544	+0.706	+0.105	Medium	8
Miguel Oliveira	1:54.651	+0.813	+0.193	Medium	7
Ai Ogura	1:54.657	+0.819	+0.300	Soft	7
Alex Marquez	1:54.692	+0.854	+0.356	Medium	7
Fermin Aldeguer	1:54.724	+0.886	+0.884	Medium	6
Joan Mir	1:54.809	+0.971	+0.562	Medium	7
Alex Rins	1:54.822	+0.984	+0.217	Medium	8
Luca Marini	1:54.851	+1.013	+0.308	Medium	7
Jorge Martin	1:54.853	+1.015	+0.457	Soft	7

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,401 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Raul Fernandez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Raul Fernandez +0.24%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.42%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pol Espargaro +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.05%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Franco Morbidelli +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.39%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.30%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.10%	Cal Crutchlow +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Andrea Iannone +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez	Daniel Pedrosa +0.44%	Valentino Rossi +0.45%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Maverick Viñales +0.48%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

81/100

Position index

40%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 44% and 100%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	344	—
2	Alex Marquez	261	−83
3	Francesco Bagnaia	197	−147
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	142	−202
5	Franco Morbidelli	139	−205
6	Marco Bezzecchi	130	−214

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/21

Laps led by the winner

Brad Binder

5.266 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jack Miller (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pol Espargaro	1:58.036	—	+0.406	Medium	7
Brad Binder	1:58.697	+0.661	+0.327	Medium	19
Valentino Rossi	1:58.852	+0.816	+0.508	Medium	19
Johann Zarco	1:58.892	+0.856	+0.344	Soft	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:58.907	+0.871	+0.193	Medium	19
Alex Rins	1:58.932	+0.896	+0.217	Soft	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.067	+1.031	+0.512	Soft	19
Cal Crutchlow	1:59.143	+1.107	+0.729	Medium	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:59.223	+1.187	+0.359	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.344	+1.308	+0.275	Medium	19

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2020Brad BinderKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda
2015Jorge LorenzoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/20	15%
2025	3/21	14%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	3/23	13%
2018	5/25	20%
2017	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	52%	+0.74%	+0.087	1	1	9.1
Soft	48%	+1.12%	+0.104	0	2	9.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.