MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 6 of 22 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2025

Le Mans France

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969
09.05 – 11.05.2025
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR45:47.54125
2Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+19.90720
3Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+26.53216
4Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+29.63113
5Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+38.13611
6Takaaki NakagamiHondaHonda HRC Test Team+59.52710
7Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+70.3029
8Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+70.3638
9Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+85.7937
10Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+86.5296
11Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+92.5355
12Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+95.3574
13Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+0.0003
14Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+0.0002
15Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+0.0001
16Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+0.0000
DNFAlex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFBrad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFFabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFJack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaHonda HRC CastrolOut on lap 10
DNFMiguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team19:49.02212
2Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+0.5309
3Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+2.1647
4Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+2.8406
5Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+5.2855
6Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+7.9394
7Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+8.3673
8Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+8.9302
9Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+9.8581
10Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+11.5990
11Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+12.2380
12Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+12.4580
13Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+12.5400
14Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+13.6100
15Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+13.7520
16Takaaki NakagamiHondaHonda HRC Test Team+15.3810
17Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+15.9040
18Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+27.5070
19Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+28.3420
20Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+44.8070
DNFBrad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintFabio Quartararo · 32%Marc Marquez · 21% · from P20.69 / 0.693.5 / 3.4
Race (after the grid)Fabio Quartararo · 30%Johann Zarco · 1% · from P110.18 / 0.184.6 / 4.6
Race (after the sprint)Marc Marquez · 35%Johann Zarco · 0% · from P110.33 / 0.184.2 / 4.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Johann Zarco1:46.176—+0.344Wet-Soft24
Fermin Aldeguer1:46.496+0.320+0.884Wet-Soft22
Franco Morbidelli1:46.657+0.481+0.512Wet-Soft21
Marc Marquez1:46.691+0.515+0.210Wet-Soft22
Alex Marquez1:46.744+0.568+0.356Wet-Soft17
Marco Bezzecchi1:47.170+0.994+0.553Wet-Medium20
Alex Rins1:47.171+0.995+0.217Wet-Medium21
Luca Marini1:47.318+1.142+0.308Wet-Soft21
Enea Bastianini1:47.381+1.205+0.319Wet-Medium20
Pedro Acosta1:47.566+1.390+0.448Wet-Medium22
Maverick Viñales1:47.902+1.726+0.292Wet-Medium21
Miguel Oliveira1:48.018+1.842+0.193Wet-Medium16
Francesco Bagnaia1:48.137+1.961+0.221Wet-Soft19
Raul Fernandez1:48.242+2.066+0.667Wet-Medium21
Takaaki Nakagami1:48.258+2.082+0.359Wet-Soft24
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:48.502+2.326+0.320Wet-Soft22
Lorenzo Savadori1:48.810+2.634+0.781Wet-Medium21
Ai Ogura1:48.899+2.723+0.300Wet-Soft20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

144
Overtakes
4
Lead changes
5 leaders
19/26
Laps led by the winner
Johann Zarco
19.907 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P22 to P6.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Franco Morbidelli (20 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

69
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
8/13
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
0.530 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:04:03Francesco BagnaiaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:08:03Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:09:15Brad BinderRetiredEntered pits and retired
Sprint15:10:24Enea BastianiniPosition penaltyTo drop 2 position due to irresponsible riding
Sprint15:12:02Enea BastianiniPosition penalty2 position penalty - COMPLETE
Sprint15:22:07Pedro AcostaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:01:27Red flagWhite flag displayed
Race14:02:02Red flagRed flag
Race14:11:31Fabio Di GiannantonioPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Fabio QuartararoPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Maverick ViñalesPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Marc MarquezPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Fermin AldeguerPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Ai OguraPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Pedro AcostaPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Joan MirPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Brad BinderPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Raul FernandezPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Enea BastianiniPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Franco MorbidelliPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:11:31Alex MarquezPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:13:52Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Medical Centre
Race14:13:52Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:13:52Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:16:33Enea BastianiniLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:16:42Maverick ViñalesLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:16:56Franco MorbidelliLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:04Fabio QuartararoLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:13Ai OguraLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:22Raul FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:33Fabio QuartararoLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:17:35Fermin AldeguerLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:45Marc MarquezLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:52Fabio Di GiannantonioLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:59Pedro AcostaLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:18:02Enea BastianiniLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:18:05Brad BinderLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:18:12Alex MarquezLong lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:19:09Alex MarquezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:19:10Fermin AldeguerLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:19:10Maverick ViñalesLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:19:11Raul FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:19:16Fabio Di GiannantonioLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:19:42Enea BastianiniLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:19:56Fabio QuartararoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:19:56Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:20:47Marc MarquezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:48Pedro AcostaLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:48Alex MarquezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:49Maverick ViñalesLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:49Fermin AldeguerLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:50Franco MorbidelliLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:55Raul FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:56Ai OguraLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:20:57Fabio Di GiannantonioLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:21:10Brad BinderLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:22:21Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:22:30Marc MarquezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:22:32Franco MorbidelliLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:22:56Brad BinderLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:23:07Franco MorbidelliCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:23:42Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:24:15Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:24:56Pedro AcostaLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:25:40Marco BezzecchiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:28:55Ai OguraLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:30:54Enea BastianiniLong lapDouble long lap penalty due to exceeding speeding in pit line
Race14:34:49Enea BastianiniLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:35:30Enea BastianiniLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:47:26Miguel OliveiraCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:49:16Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:54:37Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Wet-Soft48%+13.47%+0.386138.0
Wet-Medium43%+14.04%+0.477009.1
Soft10%+0.24%—00—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
16.8 °C
Air
max 17.6 °C
80%
Humidity
2.7 mm
Rain
12 km/h
Wind
gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 09.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:30.764—22320.6Soft / Medium1:32.202—11Medium
2Brad Binder01:31.340+0.57620314.5Medium / Medium1:32.382+0.20%5Medium
3Alex Marquez01:31.384+0.62021313.5Soft / Medium1:32.386+0.20%5Medium
4Francesco Bagnaia01:31.397+0.63320318.5Soft / Medium1:32.329+0.14%7Medium
5Ai Ogura01:31.404+0.64019309.6Soft / Medium——
6Fabio Quartararo01:31.442+0.67820313.5Soft / Medium1:32.257+0.06%10Medium
7Franco Morbidelli01:31.506+0.74216312.6Medium / Soft1:32.316+0.12%5Medium
8Johann Zarco01:31.568+0.80420312.6Medium / Medium1:32.451+0.27%6Medium
9Fermin Aldeguer01:31.621+0.85718310.6Soft / Medium1:32.742+0.59%6Medium
10Maverick Viñales01:31.637+0.87321317.5Soft / Medium1:32.352+0.16%5Medium
11Pedro Acosta01:31.686+0.92218316.5Soft / Medium——
12Jack Miller01:31.711+0.94720314.5Soft / Medium——
13Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.763+0.99918314.5Medium / Soft1:33.010+0.88%5Medium
14Joan Mir01:31.773+1.00918312.6Soft / Medium——
15Luca Marini01:31.805+1.04121313.5Soft / Medium——
16Marco Bezzecchi01:31.923+1.15922318.5Soft / Medium1:32.484+0.31%5Medium
17Alex Rins01:32.158+1.39415311.6Soft / Medium——
18Enea Bastianini01:32.310+1.54619313.5Soft / Medium——
19Takaaki Nakagami01:32.436+1.67220310.6Soft / Medium——
20Raul Fernandez01:32.847+2.08317307.7Soft / Medium1:33.420+1.32%11Medium
21Miguel Oliveira01:34.131+3.36718310.6Soft / Medium——
22Lorenzo Savadori01:34.672+3.90814307.7Soft / Medium——
Practice · 09.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:29.855—27317.5Hard / Soft——
2Fabio Quartararo01:30.032+0.17726314.5Hard / Soft1:31.167—12Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:30.039+0.18426320.6Hard / Soft1:31.542+0.41%10Soft
4Fermin Aldeguer01:30.221+0.36625314.5Hard / Soft1:31.642+0.52%10Soft
5Alex Marquez01:30.256+0.40126316.5Hard / Soft1:31.647+0.53%12Soft
6Jack Miller01:30.277+0.42226314.5Hard / Soft1:31.920+0.83%4Soft
7Pedro Acosta01:30.308+0.45325317.5Hard / Soft1:31.593+0.47%5Soft
8Maverick Viñales01:30.490+0.63526316.5Soft / Soft1:31.480+0.34%14Soft
9Franco Morbidelli01:30.509+0.65423317.5Hard / Soft——
10Marco Bezzecchi01:30.622+0.76728319.6Hard / Soft1:31.700+0.59%15Soft
11Luca Marini01:30.675+0.82025315.5Soft / Soft——
12Johann Zarco01:30.754+0.89922313.5Hard / Soft1:32.643+1.62%6Soft
13Enea Bastianini01:30.801+0.94624312.6Hard / Soft——
14Joan Mir01:30.821+0.96623311.6Soft / Soft1:32.112+1.04%6Soft
15Raul Fernandez01:30.942+1.08726314.5Soft / Soft1:32.061+0.98%5Soft
16Ai Ogura01:31.165+1.31021316.5Soft / Soft——
17Alex Rins01:31.254+1.39920315.5Hard / Soft——
18Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.257+1.40225317.5Hard / Soft1:32.543+1.51%5Soft
19Brad Binder01:31.417+1.56223319.6Hard / Soft1:31.941+0.85%12Soft
20Takaaki Nakagami01:31.555+1.70026313.5Hard / Soft——
21Miguel Oliveira01:32.325+2.47022311.6Hard / Soft——
22Lorenzo Savadori01:32.425+2.57024310.6Hard / Soft1:33.724+2.81%5Soft
FP2 · 10.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Fabio Quartararo01:30.546—14315.5Soft / Soft1:31.669+0.95%5Soft
2Marc Marquez01:30.612+0.06615317.5Soft / Soft1:30.810—6Soft
3Fermin Aldeguer01:30.703+0.15713317.5Soft / Soft1:31.206+0.44%5Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:30.748+0.20213318.5Soft / Soft——
5Alex Marquez01:30.750+0.20416315.5Soft / Soft1:31.183+0.41%7Soft
6Maverick Viñales01:30.908+0.36214315.5Soft / Soft1:31.516+0.78%6Soft
7Pedro Acosta01:30.957+0.41114316.5Soft / Soft——
8Franco Morbidelli01:31.084+0.53814314.5Soft / Soft1:31.386+0.63%5Soft
9Johann Zarco01:31.121+0.57515312.6Soft / Soft1:31.571+0.84%7Soft
10Luca Marini01:31.197+0.65113314.5Soft / Soft1:31.576+0.84%5Soft
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.211+0.66512318.5Soft / Soft1:31.950+1.26%4Soft
12Joan Mir01:31.239+0.69312315.5Soft / Soft——
13Brad Binder01:31.244+0.69813317.5Soft / Soft1:31.906+1.21%5Soft
14Marco Bezzecchi01:31.328+0.78215320.6Hard / Soft1:32.021+1.33%11Soft
15Enea Bastianini01:31.477+0.93114314.5Soft / Soft1:31.734+1.02%5Soft
16Jack Miller01:31.615+1.06916315.5Medium / Soft1:31.745+1.03%4Soft
17Alex Rins01:31.644+1.09814314.5Soft / Soft1:32.170+1.50%6Soft
18Raul Fernandez01:31.730+1.18413313.5Soft / Soft1:32.458+1.82%6Soft
19Takaaki Nakagami01:31.800+1.25413313.5Soft / Soft——
20Ai Ogura01:31.823+1.27714311.6Hard / Soft1:32.588+1.96%10Soft
21Miguel Oliveira01:31.973+1.42713315.5Soft / Soft——
22Lorenzo Savadori01:33.221+2.67511307.7Soft / Soft——
Q1 · 10.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Johann Zarco01:30.399—7311.6Soft / Soft
2Raul Fernandez01:30.431+0.0329311.6Soft / Soft
3Brad Binder01:30.441+0.0429315.5Soft / Soft
4Alex Rins01:30.455+0.0568316.5Soft / Soft
5Joan Mir01:30.479+0.0807314.5Soft / Soft
6Luca Marini01:30.505+0.1067312.6Soft / Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.651+0.2528316.5Soft / Soft
8Enea Bastianini01:30.697+0.2988312.6Hard / Soft
9Ai Ogura01:31.576+1.1777312.6Soft / Soft
10Miguel Oliveira01:31.782+1.38310314.5Soft / Soft
11Lorenzo Savadori01:31.982+1.5837311.6Soft / Soft
12Takaaki Nakagami01:32.544+2.1457312.6Soft / Soft
Q2 · 10.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Fabio Quartararo01:29.324—9315.5Soft / Soft
2Marc Marquez01:29.442+0.1188318.5Soft / Soft
3Alex Marquez01:29.571+0.2478317.5Soft / Soft
4Fermin Aldeguer01:29.776+0.4526318.5Soft / Soft
5Maverick Viñales01:30.023+0.6997314.5Soft / Soft
6Francesco Bagnaia01:30.047+0.7239319.6Soft / Soft
7Marco Bezzecchi01:30.183+0.8599320.6Hard / Soft
8Jack Miller01:30.191+0.8677318.5Hard / Soft
9Franco Morbidelli01:30.198+0.8748318.5Hard / Soft
10Raul Fernandez01:30.385+1.0619311.6Soft / Soft
11Johann Zarco01:30.444+1.1208316.5Soft / Soft
12Pedro Acosta01:30.462+1.1389317.5Soft / Soft
Sprint · 10.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez19:49.0221213Hard / Soft1:31.041—10Soft
2Alex Marquez+0.530913Hard / Soft1:31.216+0.19%11Soft
3Fermin Aldeguer+2.164713Hard / Soft1:31.272+0.25%11Soft
4Fabio Quartararo+2.840613Hard / Soft1:31.514+0.52%11Soft
5Maverick Viñales+5.285513Hard / Soft1:31.320+0.31%10Soft
6Johann Zarco+7.939413Hard / Soft1:31.601+0.62%10Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio+8.367313Hard / Soft1:31.640+0.66%11Soft
8Alex Rins+8.930213Hard / Soft1:31.726+0.75%11Soft
9Joan Mir+9.858113Hard / Soft1:31.657+0.68%10Soft
10Raul Fernandez+11.599013Hard / Soft1:31.886+0.93%11Soft
11Jack Miller+12.238013Hard / Soft1:31.832+0.87%11Soft
12Luca Marini+12.458013Hard / Soft1:31.821+0.86%10Soft
13Enea Bastianini+12.540013Hard / Soft1:31.788+0.82%10Soft
14Ai Ogura+13.610013Hard / Soft1:31.914+0.96%11Soft
15Franco Morbidelli+13.752013Hard / Soft1:31.971+1.02%11Soft
16Takaaki Nakagami+15.381013Hard / Soft1:32.172+1.24%10Soft
17Marco Bezzecchi+15.904013Hard / Soft1:31.366+0.36%10Soft
18Lorenzo Savadori+27.507013Hard / Soft1:33.044+2.20%10Soft
19Pedro Acosta+28.342013Hard / Soft1:31.311+0.30%11Soft
20Miguel Oliveira+44.807013Hard / Soft1:32.444+1.54%8Soft
RetiredBrad Binder04Hard / Soft——
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia01Hard / Soft——
Warm Up · 11.05 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Joan Mir01:45.283—6305.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
2Marc Marquez01:45.355+0.0726309.6Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
3Franco Morbidelli01:45.523+0.2406306.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
4Johann Zarco01:45.528+0.2456304.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
5Alex Marquez01:45.588+0.3055306.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
6Pedro Acosta01:45.854+0.5716309.6Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7Luca Marini01:45.867+0.5846298.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
8Brad Binder01:45.891+0.6086304.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
9Jack Miller01:45.926+0.6436304.0Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
10Marco Bezzecchi01:46.108+0.8256305.8Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
11Maverick Viñales01:46.535+1.2526303.1Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
12Takaaki Nakagami01:46.659+1.3766304.0Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
13Fabio Di Giannantonio01:46.730+1.4476294.1Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
14Alex Rins01:46.894+1.6116304.0Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
15Fabio Quartararo01:46.947+1.6646304.9Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
16Miguel Oliveira01:47.067+1.7846293.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
17Enea Bastianini01:47.108+1.8256295.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
18Raul Fernandez01:47.415+2.1326298.5Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
19Fermin Aldeguer01:47.432+2.1496294.1Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
20Francesco Bagnaia01:48.039+2.7566294.1missing / missing
21Lorenzo Savadori01:48.066+2.7836277.7Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
22Ai Ogura01:50.919+5.6366295.0Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
Race · 11.05 partly wet
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Johann Zarco45:47.5412526Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:46.176—24Wet-Soft
2Marc Marquez+19.9072026Soft / Soft1:46.691+0.49%22Wet-Soft
3Fermin Aldeguer+26.5321626Soft / Soft1:46.496+0.30%22Wet-Soft
4Pedro Acosta+29.6311326Soft / Soft1:47.566+1.31%22Wet-Medium
5Maverick Viñales+38.1361126Soft / Soft1:47.902+1.63%21Wet-Medium
6Takaaki Nakagami+59.5271026Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:48.258+1.96%24Wet-Soft
7Raul Fernandez+70.302926Soft / Soft1:48.242+1.95%21Wet-Medium
8Fabio Di Giannantonio+70.363826Soft / Soft1:48.502+2.19%22Wet-Soft
9Lorenzo Savadori+85.793726Soft / Soft1:48.810+2.48%21Wet-Medium
10Ai Ogura+86.529626Soft / Soft1:48.899+2.57%20Wet-Soft
11Luca Marini+92.535526Soft / Soft1:47.318+1.08%21Wet-Soft
12Alex Rins+95.357426Soft / Soft1:47.171+0.94%21Wet-Medium
13Enea Bastianini+0.000325Soft / Soft1:47.381+1.14%20Wet-Medium
14Marco Bezzecchi+0.000225Soft / Soft1:47.170+0.94%20Wet-Medium
15Franco Morbidelli+0.000125Soft / Soft1:46.657+0.45%21Wet-Soft
16Francesco Bagnaia+0.000025Soft / Soft1:48.137+1.85%19Wet-Soft
RetiredAlex Marquez022Soft / Soft1:46.744+0.54%17Wet-Soft
RetiredBrad Binder06Medium / Soft——
RetiredFabio Quartararo03Soft / Soft——
RetiredJack Miller05Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
Out on lap 1Joan Mir00— / ———
RetiredMiguel Oliveira018Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium1:48.018+1.74%16Wet-Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Fabio Quartararo132%64%79%89%10%4
Marc Marquez221%54%73%87%10%1
Alex Marquez314%47%68%85%12%2
Fermin Aldeguer412%39%64%89%7%3
Maverick Viñales57%27%52%84%10%5
Francesco Bagnaia65%21%43%82%12%—
Marco Bezzecchi73%15%33%74%16%17
Jack Miller82%11%28%75%10%11
Franco Morbidelli92%7%19%71%6%15
Raul Fernandez101%5%15%65%4%10
Johann Zarco111%3%8%45%22%6
Pedro Acosta120%2%6%41%15%19
Brad Binder131%2%5%33%14%—
Alex Rins140%1%3%25%13%8
Joan Mir150%1%2%16%25%9
Luca Marini160%1%1%14%12%12
Fabio Di Giannantonio170%0%1%9%17%7
Enea Bastianini180%0%1%6%9%13
Ai Ogura190%0%1%5%7%14
Miguel Oliveira200%0%0%3%15%20
Lorenzo Savadori210%0%0%2%16%18
Takaaki Nakagami220%0%0%2%11%16

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Fabio Quartararo112%43%68%87%12%—
Marc Marquez235%66%77%82%17%2
Alex Marquez320%52%68%76%22%—
Fermin Aldeguer414%41%60%70%29%3
Maverick Viñales59%37%63%84%13%5
Francesco Bagnaia64%20%42%72%22%16
Marco Bezzecchi74%22%47%79%16%14
Jack Miller80%2%10%52%25%—
Franco Morbidelli90%0%2%33%17%15
Raul Fernandez100%1%3%34%21%7
Johann Zarco110%4%16%66%17%1
Pedro Acosta121%11%30%71%21%4
Brad Binder130%0%3%35%13%—
Alex Rins140%1%4%39%21%12
Joan Mir150%1%4%32%35%—
Luca Marini160%0%1%21%8%11
Fabio Di Giannantonio170%0%3%36%15%8
Enea Bastianini180%0%1%21%15%13
Ai Ogura190%0%0%6%20%10
Miguel Oliveira200%0%0%2%21%—
Lorenzo Savadori210%0%0%1%27%9
Takaaki Nakagami220%0%0%2%14%6

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Marc Marquez50% → 66%+1520% → 35%
Fermin Aldeguer31% → 41%+119% → 14%
Alex Marquez42% → 52%+1014% → 20%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo61% → 43%−1930% → 12%
Jack Miller13% → 2%−113% → 0%
Franco Morbidelli10% → 0%−103% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marc Marquez1:31.041—+0.210Soft10
Alex Marquez1:31.216+0.175+0.356Soft11
Fermin Aldeguer1:31.272+0.231+0.884Soft11
Pedro Acosta1:31.311+0.270+0.448Soft11
Maverick Viñales1:31.320+0.279+0.292Soft10
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.366+0.325+0.553Soft10
Fabio Quartararo1:31.514+0.473+0.275Soft11
Johann Zarco1:31.601+0.560+0.344Soft10
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.640+0.599+0.320Soft11
Joan Mir1:31.657+0.616+0.562Soft10
Alex Rins1:31.726+0.685+0.217Soft11
Enea Bastianini1:31.788+0.747+0.319Soft10
Luca Marini1:31.821+0.780+0.308Soft10
Jack Miller1:31.832+0.791+0.105Soft11
Raul Fernandez1:31.886+0.845+0.667Soft11
Ai Ogura1:31.914+0.873+0.300Soft11
Franco Morbidelli1:31.971+0.930+0.512Soft11
Takaaki Nakagami1:32.172+1.131+0.359Soft10
Miguel Oliveira1:32.444+1.403+0.193Soft8
Lorenzo Savadori1:33.044+2.003+0.781Soft10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · AldeguerS2 · M. MarquezS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Quartararo

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.69
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

40
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
7/27
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
0.446 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P22 to P8.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (26 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2024 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.804—+0.221Soft24
Enea Bastianini1:31.807+0.003+0.319Soft24
Marc Marquez1:31.820+0.016+0.210Soft25
Jorge Martin1:31.862+0.058+0.457Soft25
Maverick Viñales1:31.908+0.104+0.292Soft25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.947+0.143+0.320Soft24
Brad Binder1:32.055+0.251+0.327Soft25
Fabio Quartararo1:32.091+0.287+0.275Soft14
Aleix Espargaro1:32.098+0.294+0.209Soft24
Miguel Oliveira1:32.103+0.299+0.193Soft14

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Jorge MartinAprilia
  • 2025Johann ZarcoHonda
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2124%
20256/2227%
20246/2227%
20238/2138%
20227/2429%
20216/2227%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.36%−0.003138.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.