Round 7 of 22 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2025

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

23.05 – 25.05.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	38:16.037	25
2	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+4.088	20
3	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.929	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.946	13
5	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.024	11
6	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.109	10
7	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+7.398	9
8	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.584	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.764	7
10	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+10.320	6
11	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+11.318	5
12	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+16.175	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+16.312	3
14	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.262	2
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+23.729	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+31.641	0
17	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+54.225	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+56.488	0
19	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+64.884	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	19:53.657	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.511	9
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.072	7
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+5.658	6
5	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+6.707	5
6	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.057	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+7.231	3
8	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.186	2
9	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+9.923	1
10	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+10.206	0
11	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.898	0
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+11.405	0
13	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+11.933	0
14	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.376	0
15	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+18.135	0
16	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+19.213	0
17	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+20.468	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+20.968	0
19	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+24.729	0
20	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+26.919	0
21	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+32.532	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Fabio Quartararo · 31%	Alex Marquez · 20% · from P2	0.75 / 0.75	3.4 / 3.3
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 31%	Marco Bezzecchi · 1% · from P10	0.67 / 0.67	3.4 / 3.3
Race (after the sprint)	Alex Marquez · 31%	Marco Bezzecchi · 4% · from P10	0.82 / 0.67	2.6 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.166	—	+0.275	Medium	9
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.446	+0.280	+0.553	Medium	17
Pedro Acosta	2:00.686	+0.520	+0.448	Medium	14
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.747	+0.581	+0.512	Medium	17
Alex Marquez	2:00.753	+0.587	+0.356	Medium	15
Fermin Aldeguer	2:00.829	+0.663	+0.884	Medium	16
Johann Zarco	2:00.846	+0.680	+0.344	Medium	17
Marc Marquez	2:00.871	+0.705	+0.210	Medium	17
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:00.879	+0.713	+0.320	Medium	17
Maverick Viñales	2:00.956	+0.790	+0.292	Medium	14
Luca Marini	2:00.974	+0.808	+0.308	Medium	17
Jack Miller	2:00.996	+0.830	+0.105	Medium	16
Joan Mir	2:01.007	+0.841	+0.562	Medium	17
Alex Rins	2:01.150	+0.984	+0.217	Medium	16
Brad Binder	2:01.317	+1.151	+0.327	Medium	16
Raul Fernandez	2:01.393	+1.227	+0.667	Medium	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:02.036	+1.870	+0.193	Medium	16
Enea Bastianini	2:02.274	+2.108	+0.319	Medium	15
Lorenzo Savadori	2:02.360	+2.194	+0.781	Medium	16
Somkiat Chantra	2:02.973	+2.807	+0.221	Medium	15

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

8/19

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

4.088 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Lorenzo Savadori (16 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/10

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

3.511 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Bezzecchi, from P11 to P4.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	16:05:38	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:02:59	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:04:55	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:04:55	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:06:12	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:06:19		Red flag	Red flag
Race	13:28:24	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	13:31:51	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	13:32:40	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	13:33:14	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:49:39	Fabio Quartararo	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	14:10:03	Brad Binder	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for riders #10, #23, #32 &#35 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21 & long lap penalty for rider #23

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 4 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	19	14	+5
Johann Zarco	9	5	+4
Joan Mir	12	9	+3
Fermin Aldeguer	5	15	−10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	12	−5
Alex Marquez	2	6	−4

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marco Bezzecchi	10→1	+7.6
Franco Morbidelli	13→4	+6.5
Johann Zarco	9→2	+6.0
Enea Bastianini	17→17	−3.9
Miguel Oliveira	15→16	−4.2
Luca Marini	8→15	−7.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.68%	+0.006	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

16.7 °C

Air

max 17.0 °C

46%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

23 km/h

Wind

gusts 58 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:58.702	—	17	337.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.067	+0.365	16	332.3	Medium / Medium	2:02.686	+2.24%	5	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:59.123	+0.421	16	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.910	+0.76%	12	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.164	+0.462	17	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:59.996	—	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:59.187	+0.485	16	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:59.222	+0.520	16	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.265	+1.06%	6	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.423	+0.721	12	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.176	+0.15%	5	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.544	+0.842	16	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:00.827	+0.69%	5	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:59.581	+0.879	17	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Pedro Acosta	01:59.631	+0.929	15	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Fermin Aldeguer	01:59.708	+1.006	15	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.922	+0.77%	5	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.716	+1.014	16	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:59.739	+1.037	16	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:59.806	+1.104	16	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Luca Marini	01:59.833	+1.131	18	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:00.846	+0.71%	11	Medium
16	Brad Binder	02:00.303	+1.601	17	335.4	Soft / Medium	2:00.703	+0.59%	12	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	02:00.309	+1.607	15	327.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.668	+0.56%	8	Medium
18	Ai Ogura	02:00.700	+1.998	16	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.661	+1.39%	12	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	02:00.797	+2.095	17	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.822	+1.52%	10	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.071	+2.369	16	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.874	+1.57%	5	Medium
21	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.239	+2.537	14	327.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Somkiat Chantra	02:01.645	+2.943	14	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Lorenzo Savadori	02:01.726	+3.024	16	327.2	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 23.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:57.295	—	21	333.3	Medium / Soft	1:59.483	+0.54%	5	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.342	+0.047	19	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:57.642	+0.347	19	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:57.655	+0.360	20	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:57.667	+0.372	23	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:58.842	—	5	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:57.699	+0.404	20	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.703	+0.408	20	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:57.741	+0.446	19	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.035	+1.85%	5	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:57.819	+0.524	20	334.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Fermin Aldeguer	01:57.821	+0.526	19	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Pedro Acosta	01:57.865	+0.570	18	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:57.917	+0.622	23	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:59.533	+0.58%	7	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.999	+0.704	20	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Maverick Viñales	01:58.062	+0.767	22	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:59.478	+0.54%	7	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.103	+0.808	19	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Luca Marini	01:58.151	+0.856	21	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Brad Binder	01:58.325	+1.030	21	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:00.542	+1.43%	7	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	01:58.670	+1.375	20	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	01:58.725	+1.430	19	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:59.102	+1.807	21	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.617	+2.34%	9	Soft
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.322	+2.027	20	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:59.648	+2.353	18	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Ai Ogura		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 24.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.032	—	12	326.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:59.178	+0.146	15	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:59.865	+0.05%	7	Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:59.424	+0.392	9	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:59.531	+0.499	13	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Fermin Aldeguer	01:59.590	+0.558	12	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:59.810	—	4	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.756	+0.724	13	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:59.758	+0.726	13	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.480	+0.56%	5	Soft
8	Joan Mir	01:59.865	+0.833	13	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.216	+0.34%	6	Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:59.980	+0.948	14	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.984	+0.952	12	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Marco Bezzecchi	02:00.015	+0.983	15	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.463	+0.55%	7	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	02:00.034	+1.002	12	325.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	02:00.089	+1.057	12	318.5	Soft / Soft	2:00.711	+0.75%	5	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.111	+1.079	13	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.748	+0.78%	6	Soft
15	Pedro Acosta	02:00.284	+1.252	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.328	+1.296	13	325.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	02:00.514	+1.482	15	328.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.688	+0.73%	7	Soft
18	Enea Bastianini	02:00.542	+1.510	13	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Brad Binder	02:00.772	+1.740	14	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.580	+1.48%	7	Soft
20	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.819	+1.787	13	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:02.375	+2.14%	5	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	02:01.485	+2.453	12	327.2	Soft / Soft	2:02.056	+1.88%	4	Soft
22	Somkiat Chantra	02:01.780	+2.748	10	319.5	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 24.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Luca Marini	01:58.209	—	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.299	+0.090	7	328.2	Soft / Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:58.322	+0.113	7	331.2	Soft / Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	01:58.536	+0.327	7	329.2	Soft / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.539	+0.330	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	01:58.734	+0.525	7	328.2	Soft / Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:59.158	+0.949	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:59.159	+0.950	4	329.2	Soft / Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:59.288	+1.079	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
10	Lorenzo Savadori	01:59.450	+1.241	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.632	+1.423	7	325.3	Soft / Soft
12	Somkiat Chantra	02:01.030	+2.821	5	321.4	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 24.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.233	—	7	324.3	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:57.542	+0.309	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.822	+0.589	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:57.914	+0.681	7	335.4	Soft / Soft
5	Fermin Aldeguer	01:58.073	+0.840	7	328.2	Soft / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:58.105	+0.872	6	331.2	Soft / Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:58.126	+0.893	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:58.135	+0.902	6	331.2	Soft / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:58.140	+0.907	6	327.2	Soft / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.225	+0.992	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.343	+1.110	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:58.457	+1.224	6	330.2	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 24.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	19:53.657	12	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.026	—	8	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+3.511	9	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.189	+0.14%	8	Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+5.072	7	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.304	+0.23%	8	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+5.658	6	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.242	+0.18%	8	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	+6.707	5	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.476	+0.38%	7	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	+7.057	4	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.523	+0.42%	8	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+7.231	3	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.686	+0.56%	8	Soft
8	Pedro Acosta	+9.186	2	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.713	+0.58%	8	Soft
9	Jack Miller	+9.923	1	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.788	+0.64%	8	Soft
10	Luca Marini	+10.206	0	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.905	+0.74%	8	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	+10.898	0	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.821	+0.67%	7	Soft
12	Joan Mir	+11.405	0	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.671	+0.54%	7	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	+11.933	0	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.959	+0.78%	8	Soft
14	Fermin Aldeguer	+15.376	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.166	+0.96%	8	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	+18.135	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.701	+1.41%	8	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	+19.213	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.734	+1.44%	8	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	+20.468	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.571	+1.30%	8	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+20.968	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:00.590	+1.31%	8	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	+24.729	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.622	+1.34%	8	Soft
20	Alex Rins	+26.919	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.078	+0.88%	7	Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	+32.532	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:02.158	+2.63%	8	Soft
Retired	Brad Binder		0	1	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 25.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	02:12.973	—	5	315.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	02:13.085	+0.112	5	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
3	Fermin Aldeguer	02:13.274	+0.301	5	305.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	02:13.347	+0.374	5	313.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
5	Luca Marini	02:13.620	+0.647	5	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
6	Marc Marquez	02:13.694	+0.721	5	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	02:14.030	+1.057	5	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
8	Joan Mir	02:14.148	+1.175	5	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:14.334	+1.361	5	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
10	Jack Miller	02:14.359	+1.386	5	302.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
11	Pedro Acosta	02:14.402	+1.429	5	311.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
12	Alex Marquez	02:14.513	+1.540	5	311.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	02:15.479	+2.506	4	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	02:15.567	+2.594	5	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
15	Brad Binder	02:16.022	+3.049	5	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	02:16.106	+3.133	5	304.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
17	Somkiat Chantra	02:16.490	+3.517	5	306.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
18	Alex Rins	02:17.002	+4.029	5	306.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
19	Lorenzo Savadori	02:17.069	+4.096	5	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:17.305	+4.332	5	295.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
21	Enea Bastianini	02:17.722	+4.749	5	286.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
22	Aleix Espargaro	02:18.860	+5.887	5	302.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft

Race · 25.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	38:16.037	25	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.446	+0.23%	17	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	+4.088	20	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.846	+0.57%	17	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	+5.929	16	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.871	+0.59%	17	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+5.946	13	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.747	+0.48%	17	Medium
5	Alex Marquez	+6.024	11	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.753	+0.49%	15	Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	+7.109	10	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.686	+0.43%	14	Medium
7	Jack Miller	+7.398	9	19	Soft / Medium	2:00.996	+0.69%	16	Medium
8	Fermin Aldeguer	+8.584	8	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.829	+0.55%	16	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+9.764	7	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.879	+0.59%	17	Medium
10	Joan Mir	+10.320	6	19	Medium / Medium	2:01.007	+0.70%	17	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	+11.318	5	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.956	+0.66%	14	Medium
12	Raul Fernandez	+16.175	4	19	Medium / Medium	2:01.393	+1.02%	17	Medium
13	Alex Rins	+16.312	3	19	Soft / Medium	2:01.150	+0.82%	16	Medium
14	Brad Binder	+16.262	2	19	Medium / Medium	2:01.317	+0.96%	16	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+23.729	1	19	Medium / Medium	2:00.974	+0.67%	17	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	+31.641	0	19	Soft / Medium	2:02.036	+1.56%	16	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	+54.225	0	19	Medium / Medium	2:02.274	+1.75%	15	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+56.488	0	19	Medium / Medium	2:02.360	+1.83%	16	Medium
19	Somkiat Chantra	+64.884	0	19	Soft / Medium	2:02.973	+2.34%	15	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	3	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	12	Soft / Medium	2:00.166	—	9	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	3	Medium / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:59.277*	—	+0.356	Medium	4
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.795*	+0.518	+0.221	Medium	3
Luca Marini	2:00.073*	+0.796	+0.308	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	57%	3
2	Pedro Acosta	43%	4
3	Maverick Viñales	29%	8
4	Luca Marini	20%	1 ✓
5	Franco Morbidelli	19%	2 ✓
6	Miguel Oliveira	11%	5
7	Raul Fernandez	7%	6
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	7
9	Brad Binder	3%	9
10	Aleix Espargaro	3%	11
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	10
12	Somkiat Chantra	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	65%	88%	1
2	Alex Marquez	22%	53%	81%	2
3	Marc Marquez	14%	46%	76%	4
4	Jack Miller	6%	32%	67%	6
5	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	25%	53%	3
6	Fermin Aldeguer	6%	22%	56%	5
7	Marco Bezzecchi	1%	13%	41%	11
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	14%	38%	7
9	Luca Marini	3%	8%	31%	8
10	Johann Zarco	2%	8%	25%	9
11	Franco Morbidelli	2%	9%	29%	10
12	Alex Rins	1%	4%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Franco Morbidelli	10	13	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21 & long lap penalty for rider #23

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	31%	64%	79%	89%	9%	7
Alex Marquez	2	20%	54%	72%	86%	12%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	44%	66%	84%	13%	6
Marc Marquez	4	12%	39%	63%	86%	10%	2
Fermin Aldeguer	5	7%	29%	55%	88%	6%	14
Jack Miller	6	6%	22%	47%	83%	9%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	15%	33%	74%	16%	3
Luca Marini	8	3%	12%	29%	74%	12%	10
Johann Zarco	9	1%	6%	15%	59%	21%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	10	1%	4%	13%	57%	15%	4
Alex Rins	11	1%	3%	10%	52%	13%	20
Joan Mir	12	1%	2%	6%	38%	24%	12
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	2%	5%	36%	5%	11
Pedro Acosta	14	0%	1%	3%	26%	15%	8
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	14%	16
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	4%	19
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	9%	15
Maverick Viñales	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	9%	13
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	15%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	18
Aleix Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	17
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	7%	21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	17%	48%	69%	85%	12%	—
Alex Marquez	2	31%	59%	69%	74%	23%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	3	11%	39%	58%	76%	22%	—
Marc Marquez	4	22%	55%	72%	82%	17%	3
Fermin Aldeguer	5	1%	5%	16%	57%	26%	8
Jack Miller	6	1%	6%	19%	58%	25%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	9%	37%	61%	82%	15%	9
Luca Marini	8	1%	6%	19%	71%	8%	15
Johann Zarco	9	3%	17%	38%	76%	17%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	10	4%	19%	40%	79%	16%	1
Alex Rins	11	0%	1%	5%	40%	21%	13
Joan Mir	12	0%	2%	7%	39%	35%	10
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	3%	11%	57%	17%	4
Pedro Acosta	14	0%	3%	11%	53%	20%	6
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	0%	1%	11%	22%	16
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	0%	0%	11%	21%	12
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	17
Maverick Viñales	18	0%	0%	3%	31%	13%	11
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	26%	18
Aleix Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	6%	23%	—
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18% → 37%	+19	4% → 9%
Marc Marquez	38% → 55%	+17	12% → 22%
Marco Bezzecchi	6% → 19%	+12	1% → 4%
Dropping
Fermin Aldeguer	26% → 5%	−21	7% → 1%
Jack Miller	22% → 6%	−16	5% → 1%
Fabio Quartararo	63% → 48%	−15	31% → 17%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:59.026	—	+0.356	Soft	8
Marc Marquez	1:59.189	+0.163	+0.210	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:59.242	+0.216	+0.553	Soft	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:59.304	+0.278	+0.320	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	1:59.476	+0.450	+0.344	Soft	7
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.523	+0.497	+0.221	Soft	8
Joan Mir	1:59.671	+0.645	+0.562	Soft	7
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.686	+0.660	+0.275	Soft	8
Pedro Acosta	1:59.713	+0.687	+0.448	Soft	8
Jack Miller	1:59.788	+0.762	+0.105	Soft	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.821	+0.795	+0.512	Soft	7
Luca Marini	1:59.905	+0.879	+0.308	Soft	8
Maverick Viñales	1:59.959	+0.933	+0.292	Soft	8
Alex Rins	2:00.078	+1.052	+0.217	Soft	7
Fermin Aldeguer	2:00.166	+1.140	+0.884	Soft	8
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.571	+1.545	+0.209	Soft	8
Lorenzo Savadori	2:00.590	+1.564	+0.781	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	2:00.622	+1.596	+0.667	Soft	8
Enea Bastianini	2:00.701	+1.675	+0.319	Soft	8
Miguel Oliveira	2:00.734	+1.708	+0.193	Soft	8
Somkiat Chantra	2:02.158	+3.132	+0.221	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Raul Fernandez +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Raul Fernandez +0.19%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.00%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Ai Ogura +0.09%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Marc Marquez +0.44%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Aleix Espargaro +0.05%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.51%	Luca Marini +0.56%	Jorge Martin +0.68%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%	Miguel Oliveira +0.45%
S3	Brad Binder +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.24%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.05%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Alex Rins +0.11%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jack Miller +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Pol Espargaro +0.41%	Aleix Espargaro +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.37%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.49%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.30%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.55%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	171	—
2	Alex Marquez	149	−22
3	Francesco Bagnaia	120	−51
4	Franco Morbidelli	85	−86
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	74	−97
6	Johann Zarco	72	−99

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

2/20

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

1.931 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:59.354	—	+0.319	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	1:59.383	+0.029	+0.457	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.495	+0.141	+0.221	Medium	17
Marc Marquez	1:59.650	+0.296	+0.210	Medium	18
Aleix Espargaro	1:59.720	+0.366	+0.209	Medium	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:59.730	+0.376	+0.320	Medium	18
Alex Marquez	1:59.975	+0.621	+0.356	Medium	17
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.006	+0.652	+0.553	Medium	18
Pedro Acosta	2:00.050	+0.696	+0.448	Medium	17
Jack Miller	2:00.307	+0.953	+0.105	Medium	17

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.80%	+0.053	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.