MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 5 of 22 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2025

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984
25.04 – 27.04.2025
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP40:56.37425
2Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+1.56120
3Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+2.21716
4Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+3.67813
5Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+7.26711
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+8.52910
7Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+9.7649
8Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+10.9238
9Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+15.8797
10Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+17.2396
11Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+17.7845
12Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+20.8904
13Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+21.1203
14Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+24.5102
15Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+25.7261
16Augusto FernandezYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+31.4290
17Aleix EspargaroHondaHonda HRC Test Team+39.6780
18Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+49.3030
DNFFermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFFranco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFJack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaHonda HRC CastrolRetired0
DNFSomkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCRRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team19:32.10712
2Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+1.0019
3Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+3.0777
4Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+3.5306
5Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+5.7915
6Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+7.6914
7Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+7.8493
8Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+10.1752
9Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+10.4141
10Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+12.6730
11Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+13.2040
12Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+13.4380
13Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+16.5720
14Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+17.9180
15Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+19.9630
16Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+21.6900
17Augusto FernandezYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+21.9320
18Aleix EspargaroHondaHonda HRC Test Team+22.5150
19Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+30.2000
20Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+30.9680
DNFFabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFJack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCRRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintFabio Quartararo · 30%Marc Marquez · 20% · from P20.96 / 0.961.5 / 1.5
Race (after the grid)Fabio Quartararo · 30%Alex Marquez · 10% · from P40.74 / 0.743.0 / 3.1
Race (after the sprint)Fabio Quartararo · 31%Alex Marquez · 13% · from P40.76 / 0.742.7 / 3.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

88
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
15/25
Laps led by the winner
Alex Marquez
1.561 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P23 to P13.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Pedro Acosta (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

11
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
11/12
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.001 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Lorenzo Savadori vs Somkiat Chantra (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:04:47Fabio QuartararoCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:09:52Jack MillerCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:10:58Johann ZarcoCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:06:40Marc MarquezCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:11:20Fermin AldeguerCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:22:18Somkiat ChantraRetiredentered pits and retired
Race14:25:41Jack MillerRetiredentered pits and retired
Race14:26:08Joan MirCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:28:21Franco MorbidelliCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:33:52Fermin AldeguerRetiredentered pits and retired
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for rider #41 Espargaro due to Technical regulations infringement.

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+0.37%+0.011139.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
26.6 °C
Air
max 27.8 °C
48%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
5 km/h
Wind
gusts 14 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Fabio Quartararo130%64%80%91%8%—
Marc Marquez220%54%73%87%10%1
Francesco Bagnaia314%45%67%85%12%3
Alex Marquez411%36%60%84%13%2
Franco Morbidelli57%31%57%89%6%4
Maverick Viñales65%21%43%82%10%7
Fermin Aldeguer74%17%37%82%8%5
Fabio Di Giannantonio82%10%24%69%17%6
Joan Mir92%6%15%56%25%9
Johann Zarco101%5%13%54%20%—
Marco Bezzecchi111%3%9%48%16%8
Pedro Acosta121%2%6%40%16%10
Brad Binder131%3%6%34%14%11
Jack Miller140%1%4%28%8%—
Ai Ogura150%1%3%22%8%12
Luca Marini160%1%1%15%12%13
Raul Fernandez170%0%1%12%4%16
Enea Bastianini180%0%1%8%9%14
Aleix Espargaro190%0%0%5%25%18
Augusto Fernandez200%0%1%3%14%17
Somkiat Chantra210%0%0%3%8%20
Lorenzo Savadori220%0%0%2%17%19
Alex Rins230%0%0%1%14%15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Fabio Quartararo131%67%81%88%12%2
Marc Marquez229%63%76%83%17%12
Francesco Bagnaia313%41%61%76%23%3
Alex Marquez413%42%63%76%22%1
Franco Morbidelli55%26%52%80%16%—
Maverick Viñales63%16%40%82%13%4
Fermin Aldeguer74%21%44%74%22%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio82%13%34%77%15%5
Joan Mir90%4%13%51%34%—
Johann Zarco100%2%9%59%17%11
Marco Bezzecchi110%4%15%66%16%14
Pedro Acosta120%1%7%50%21%7
Brad Binder130%0%3%42%13%6
Jack Miller140%0%1%20%24%—
Ai Ogura150%0%1%27%22%8
Luca Marini160%0%1%24%8%10
Raul Fernandez170%0%0%7%21%15
Enea Bastianini180%0%0%11%15%9
Aleix Espargaro190%0%0%3%23%17
Augusto Fernandez200%0%0%2%27%16
Somkiat Chantra210%0%0%1%12%—
Lorenzo Savadori220%0%0%0%27%18
Alex Rins230%0%0%2%21%13

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Marc Marquez51% → 63%+1221% → 29%
Alex Marquez35% → 42%+810% → 13%
Fabio Quartararo60% → 67%+730% → 31%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales24% → 16%−86% → 3%
Johann Zarco6% → 2%−51% → 0%
Joan Mir8% → 4%−42% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · MarquezS2 · AldeguerS3 · MarquezS4 · Viñales

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Sector123
S1Marc Marquez +0.08%Fabio Quartararo +0.39%Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%Andrea Iannone +0.39%Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3Marc Marquez +0.01%Jorge Martin +0.43%Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4Maverick Viñales +0.24%Cal Crutchlow +0.39%Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
56%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

40
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
2 leaders
16/25
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.372 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Brad Binder (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2024 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:38.005—+0.221Medium21
Jorge Martin1:38.060+0.055+0.457Medium8
Marc Marquez1:38.089+0.084+0.210Medium22
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.170+0.165+0.553Medium23
Enea Bastianini1:38.314+0.309+0.319Medium21
Brad Binder1:38.315+0.310+0.327Medium22
Alex Marquez1:38.325+0.320+0.356Medium22
Maverick Viñales1:38.372+0.367+0.292Medium23
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:38.398+0.393+0.320Medium23
Miguel Oliveira1:38.451+0.446+0.193Medium23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2313%
20255/2322%
20248/2532%
20236/2326%
20223/2512%
20213/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium96%+0.74%+0.006138.6
Soft4%+1.64%−0.0240016.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.