Round 5 of 22 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2025

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

25.04 – 27.04.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	40:56.374	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+1.561	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.217	16
4	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+3.678	13
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+7.267	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.529	10
7	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.764	9
8	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+10.923	8
9	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+15.879	7
10	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+17.239	6
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+17.784	5
12	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+20.890	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.120	3
14	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+24.510	2
15	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+25.726	1
16	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+31.429	0
17	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+39.678	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+49.303	0
DNF	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:32.107	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.001	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.077	7
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.530	6
5	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.791	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+7.691	4
7	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+7.849	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.175	2
9	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+10.414	1
10	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.673	0
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.204	0
12	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+13.438	0
13	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+16.572	0
14	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+17.918	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+19.963	0
16	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+21.690	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+21.932	0
18	Aleix Espargaro	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+22.515	0
19	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+30.200	0
20	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+30.968	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Fabio Quartararo · 30%	Marc Marquez · 20% · from P2	0.96 / 0.96	1.5 / 1.5
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 30%	Alex Marquez · 10% · from P4	0.74 / 0.74	3.0 / 3.1
Race (after the sprint)	Fabio Quartararo · 31%	Alex Marquez · 13% · from P4	0.76 / 0.74	2.7 / 3.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

15/25

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

1.561 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P23 to P13.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Pedro Acosta (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

11/12

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.001 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Lorenzo Savadori vs Somkiat Chantra (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:04:47	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:09:52	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:58	Johann Zarco	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:40	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:20	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:22:18	Somkiat Chantra	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:25:41	Jack Miller	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:26:08	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:21	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:33:52	Fermin Aldeguer	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for rider #41 Espargaro due to Technical regulations infringement.

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	13	10	+3
Enea Bastianini	18	16	+2
Fermin Aldeguer	7	5	+2
Franco Morbidelli	5	14	−9
Pedro Acosta	12	15	−3
Lorenzo Savadori	22	23	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	18→9	+4.8
Brad Binder	13→6	+4.5
Alex Rins	23→13	+4.0
Aleix Espargaro	19→17	−2.6
Marco Bezzecchi	11→14	−4.7
Marc Marquez	2→12	−8.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.37%	+0.011	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.6 °C

Air

max 27.8 °C

48%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 14 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	56%	1 ✓
2	Marco Bezzecchi	43%	2 ✓
3	Jack Miller	29%	4
4	Brad Binder	20%	3
5	Luca Marini	19%	6
6	Ai Ogura	11%	5
7	Raul Fernandez	7%	7
8	Alex Rins	4%	13
9	Aleix Espargaro	3%	9
10	Enea Bastianini	3%	8
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	10
12	Somkiat Chantra	2%	11
13	Lorenzo Savadori	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	65%	87%	2
2	Francesco Bagnaia	22%	53%	81%	3
3	Alex Marquez	14%	47%	76%	4
4	Fabio Quartararo	5%	32%	66%	1
5	Franco Morbidelli	4%	24%	52%	5
6	Maverick Viñales	6%	22%	55%	6
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	13%	41%	8
8	Fermin Aldeguer	2%	15%	38%	7
9	Pedro Acosta	3%	8%	31%	12
10	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	8%	25%	11
11	Johann Zarco	2%	9%	29%	10
12	Joan Mir	1%	4%	19%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	30%	64%	80%	91%	8%	—
Marc Marquez	2	20%	54%	73%	87%	10%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	45%	67%	85%	12%	3
Alex Marquez	4	11%	36%	60%	84%	13%	2
Franco Morbidelli	5	7%	31%	57%	89%	6%	4
Maverick Viñales	6	5%	21%	43%	82%	10%	7
Fermin Aldeguer	7	4%	17%	37%	82%	8%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	2%	10%	24%	69%	17%	6
Joan Mir	9	2%	6%	15%	56%	25%	9
Johann Zarco	10	1%	5%	13%	54%	20%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	11	1%	3%	9%	48%	16%	8
Pedro Acosta	12	1%	2%	6%	40%	16%	10
Brad Binder	13	1%	3%	6%	34%	14%	11
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	4%	28%	8%	—
Ai Ogura	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	8%	12
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	1%	15%	12%	13
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	4%	16
Enea Bastianini	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	9%	14
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	25%	18
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	14%	17
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	20
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	19
Alex Rins	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	31%	67%	81%	88%	12%	2
Marc Marquez	2	29%	63%	76%	83%	17%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	3	13%	41%	61%	76%	23%	3
Alex Marquez	4	13%	42%	63%	76%	22%	1
Franco Morbidelli	5	5%	26%	52%	80%	16%	—
Maverick Viñales	6	3%	16%	40%	82%	13%	4
Fermin Aldeguer	7	4%	21%	44%	74%	22%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	2%	13%	34%	77%	15%	5
Joan Mir	9	0%	4%	13%	51%	34%	—
Johann Zarco	10	0%	2%	9%	59%	17%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	11	0%	4%	15%	66%	16%	14
Pedro Acosta	12	0%	1%	7%	50%	21%	7
Brad Binder	13	0%	0%	3%	42%	13%	6
Jack Miller	14	0%	0%	1%	20%	24%	—
Ai Ogura	15	0%	0%	1%	27%	22%	8
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	1%	24%	8%	10
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	0%	7%	21%	15
Enea Bastianini	18	0%	0%	0%	11%	15%	9
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	23%	17
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	16
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	12%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	27%	18
Alex Rins	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	51% → 63%	+12	21% → 29%
Alex Marquez	35% → 42%	+8	10% → 13%
Fabio Quartararo	60% → 67%	+7	30% → 31%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	24% → 16%	−8	6% → 3%
Johann Zarco	6% → 2%	−5	1% → 0%
Joan Mir	8% → 4%	−4	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	123	—
2	Alex Marquez	106	−17
3	Francesco Bagnaia	97	−26
4	Franco Morbidelli	78	−45
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	48	−75
6	Johann Zarco	38	−85

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/25

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.372 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Brad Binder (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.005	—	+0.221	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:38.060	+0.055	+0.457	Medium	8
Marc Marquez	1:38.089	+0.084	+0.210	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.170	+0.165	+0.553	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:38.314	+0.309	+0.319	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:38.315	+0.310	+0.327	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:38.325	+0.320	+0.356	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:38.372	+0.367	+0.292	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.398	+0.393	+0.320	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.451	+0.446	+0.193	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.74%	+0.006	1	3	8.6
Soft	4%	+1.64%	−0.024	0	0	16.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.