Round 19 of 22 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2025

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

17.10 – 19.10.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	39:49.571	25
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+1.418	20
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.410	16
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+3.715	13
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.930	11
6	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+7.970	10
7	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+10.671	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.270	8
9	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+14.076	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+16.861	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+16.965	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+17.677	4
13	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+17.928	3
14	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+18.413	2
15	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+27.881	1
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+34.169	0
17	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+50.043	0
18	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+50.303	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	19:03.971	12
2	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+3.149	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.310	7
4	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+5.376	6
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.416	5
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.109	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+8.706	3
8	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+8.938	2
9	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+9.252	1
10	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+9.752	0
11	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+10.231	0
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+12.104	0
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+12.132	0
14	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+17.494	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+18.967	0
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+25.185	0
17	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+27.784	0
18	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+28.945	0
19	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+32.408	0
20	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+35.523	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Fabio Quartararo · 30%	Marco Bezzecchi · 20% · from P2	0.87 / 0.87	2.2 / 2.2
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 31%	Raul Fernandez · 12% · from P4	0.68 / 0.68	3.0 / 3.0
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 36%	Raul Fernandez · 21% · from P4	0.81 / 0.68	2.3 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/27

Laps led by the winner

Raul Fernandez

1.418 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P9.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Fermin Aldeguer (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/13

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

3.149 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P10.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Jack Miller (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:04:14	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:17:58	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 seconds penalty for rider #79 Ogura due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race	15:03:45	Marco Bezzecchi	Long lap	double long lap penalty
Race	15:08:25	Johann Zarco	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:08:53	Marco Bezzecchi	Long lap	double long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race	15:09:04	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:11:54	Marco Bezzecchi	Long lap	double long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race	15:16:44	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:37:02	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #72 & grid penalty for riders #33 & #63

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	16	11	+5
Enea Bastianini	20	16	+4
Pedro Acosta	5	3	+2
Fabio Quartararo	1	4	−3
Fermin Aldeguer	7	10	−3
Miguel Oliveira	15	17	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10→2	+6.6
Enea Bastianini	20→9	+6.0
Brad Binder	16→8	+4.5
Pol Espargaro	8→10	−2.7
Fermin Aldeguer	7→14	−7.3
Fabio Quartararo	1→11	−8.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.46%	+0.024	1	3	9.1
Soft	5%	+2.19%	+0.028	0	0	17.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.7 °C

Air

max 23.2 °C

41%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

20 km/h

Wind

gusts 52 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fermin Aldeguer	57%	1 ✓
2	Jack Miller	43%	2 ✓
3	Brad Binder	28%	3
4	Joan Mir	22%	4
5	Johann Zarco	19%	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	11%	7
7	Miguel Oliveira	7%	6
8	Ai Ogura	4%	8
9	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	9
10	Enea Bastianini	3%	10
11	Somkiat Chantra	4%	11
12	Michele Pirro	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	39%	66%	88%	2
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	21%	53%	81%	10
3	Fabio Quartararo	13%	45%	75%	1
4	Raul Fernandez	6%	33%	67%	4
5	Alex Marquez	4%	25%	54%	6
6	Fermin Aldeguer	6%	22%	55%	7
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	13%	41%	11
8	Pol Espargaro	3%	15%	38%	8
9	Luca Marini	3%	8%	30%	9
10	Alex Rins	2%	8%	25%	12
11	Jack Miller	2%	9%	28%	3
12	Pedro Acosta	1%	4%	19%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Francesco Bagnaia	11	14	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #72 & grid penalty for riders #33 & #63
Race	Brad Binder	13	16	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #72 & grid penalty for riders #33 & #63

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	30%	60%	75%	84%	14%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	2	20%	53%	70%	82%	16%	1
Jack Miller	3	15%	48%	70%	87%	9%	4
Raul Fernandez	4	12%	40%	65%	90%	6%	2
Pedro Acosta	5	6%	27%	49%	79%	15%	3
Alex Marquez	6	6%	23%	44%	81%	11%	6
Fermin Aldeguer	7	4%	17%	38%	82%	7%	—
Pol Espargaro	8	2%	11%	27%	72%	13%	9
Luca Marini	9	2%	7%	19%	68%	10%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	1%	4%	12%	58%	15%	5
Alex Rins	11	1%	3%	10%	53%	10%	13
Joan Mir	12	1%	2%	6%	38%	23%	11
Johann Zarco	13	0%	2%	5%	30%	24%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	1%	3%	28%	12%	19
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	11%	14
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	17%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	8%	15
Ai Ogura	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	4%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	16%	16
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	12%	10
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	18
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	7%	27%	52%	84%	13%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	2	36%	65%	76%	82%	17%	3
Jack Miller	3	12%	41%	59%	74%	25%	—
Raul Fernandez	4	21%	53%	69%	79%	19%	1
Pedro Acosta	5	10%	38%	60%	79%	19%	5
Alex Marquez	6	5%	23%	44%	72%	22%	4
Fermin Aldeguer	7	2%	12%	31%	75%	17%	14
Pol Espargaro	8	1%	4%	13%	60%	20%	10
Luca Marini	9	1%	6%	21%	74%	9%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	4%	21%	44%	79%	16%	2
Alex Rins	11	1%	7%	21%	66%	21%	7
Joan Mir	12	0%	1%	5%	36%	37%	—
Johann Zarco	13	0%	1%	3%	35%	19%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	0%	0%	10%	22%	—
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	0%	1%	24%	21%	12
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	14%	8
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	16%	15
Ai Ogura	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	26%	13
Lorenzo Savadori	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	29%	16
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	2%	29%	19%	9
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	11%	17
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Raul Fernandez	35% → 53%	+17	12% → 21%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7% → 21%	+15	1% → 4%
Marco Bezzecchi	53% → 65%	+13	22% → 36%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo	62% → 27%	−35	31% → 7%
Pol Espargaro	13% → 4%	−9	3% → 1%
Fermin Aldeguer	19% → 12%	−7	4% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	545	—
2	Alex Marquez	362	−183
3	Francesco Bagnaia	274	−271
4	Marco Bezzecchi	254	−291
5	Pedro Acosta	215	−330
6	Franco Morbidelli	207	−338

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.997 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Luca Marini (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:28.122	—	+0.210	Soft	25
Jorge Martin	1:28.207	+0.085	+0.457	Soft	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:28.377	+0.255	+0.221	Soft	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:28.565	+0.443	+0.320	Soft	25
Enea Bastianini	1:28.630	+0.508	+0.319	Soft	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:28.642	+0.520	+0.553	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:28.682	+0.560	+0.292	Soft	25
Brad Binder	1:28.697	+0.575	+0.327	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:28.750	+0.628	+0.512	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:28.755	+0.633	+0.344	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.79%	−0.006	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.