Round 20 of 22 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2025

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

24.10 – 26.10.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	40:09.249	25
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.676	20
3	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+8.048	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.580	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+11.556	11
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+13.060	10
7	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+15.299	9
8	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+18.738	8
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.932	7
10	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+19.256	6
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.824	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+22.234	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+23.509	3
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+25.201	2
15	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+34.110	1
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+36.115	0
17	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+43.914	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+47.060	0
19	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+77.942	0
DNF	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:53.725	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.259	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.155	7
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.541	6
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+8.468	5
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.232	4
7	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.138	3
8	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+12.627	2
9	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+12.974	1
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+14.515	0
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+14.924	0
12	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+15.394	0
13	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+15.461	0
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+17.601	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.721	0
16	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.248	0
17	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+22.398	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+22.478	0
19	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+25.412	0
20	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+26.074	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% · from P1	0.88 / 0.88	2.1 / 2.0
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 27%	Alex Marquez · 20% · from P2	0.78 / 0.78	2.7 / 2.7
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 33%	Alex Marquez · 21% · from P2	0.85 / 0.78	2.1 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	2:00.262	—	+0.356	Soft	18
Pedro Acosta	2:00.313	+0.051	+0.448	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.326	+0.064	+0.221	Soft	16
Joan Mir	2:00.509	+0.247	+0.562	Soft	17
Fermin Aldeguer	2:00.516	+0.254	+0.884	Soft	14
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.543	+0.281	+0.512	Soft	18
Raul Fernandez	2:00.548	+0.286	+0.667	Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:00.637	+0.375	+0.320	Soft	18
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.865	+0.603	+0.553	Soft	18
Brad Binder	2:00.899	+0.637	+0.327	Soft	18
Enea Bastianini	2:00.926	+0.664	+0.319	Soft	17
Johann Zarco	2:00.977	+0.715	+0.344	Soft	18
Luca Marini	2:01.025	+0.763	+0.308	Soft	18
Ai Ogura	2:01.048	+0.786	+0.300	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:01.145	+0.883	+0.275	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.321	+1.059	+0.193	Soft	17
Jack Miller	2:01.442	+1.180	+0.105	Soft	18
Somkiat Chantra	2:01.512	+1.250	+0.221	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:01.524	+1.262	+0.217	Soft	18
Lorenzo Savadori	2:01.842	+1.580	+0.781	Soft	18
Michele Pirro	2:02.214	+1.952	+0.267	Soft	18
Augusto Fernandez	2:02.453	+2.191	+0.437	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

19/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

2.676 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P19 to P7.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Pedro Acosta (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

10/10

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.259 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fermin Aldeguer, from P6 to P3.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:11:56	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:13	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:24	Joan Mir	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:18:36	Luca Marini	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 seconds penalty for rider #54 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race	15:11:30	Pol Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:24:20	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:25:12	Raul Fernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:36:54	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:40:01	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	entered pits and retired

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	18	11	+7
Luca Marini	13	9	+4
Enea Bastianini	19	16	+3
Jack Miller	11	17	−6
Miguel Oliveira	16	20	−4
Raul Fernandez	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	19→7	+7.4
Brad Binder	18→9	+4.8
Joan Mir	7→3	+3.7
Alex Rins	10→13	−4.4
Jack Miller	11→14	−4.7
Miguel Oliveira	16→19	−6.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.62%	+0.125	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

32.2 °C

Air

max 32.8 °C

52%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fermin Aldeguer	02:00.199	—	12	328.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.851	—	5	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.455	+0.256	11	332.3	Medium / Medium	2:00.956	+0.09%	5	Medium
3	Joan Mir	02:00.548	+0.349	12	334.3	Hard / Medium	2:00.980	+0.11%	5	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	02:00.581	+0.382	11	328.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	02:00.591	+0.392	13	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Luca Marini	02:00.602	+0.403	12	330.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Alex Marquez	02:00.720	+0.521	9	332.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.733	+0.534	12	330.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Jack Miller	02:00.806	+0.607	7	329.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
10	Pedro Acosta	02:00.863	+0.664	10	333.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.163	+0.964	11	329.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Brad Binder	02:01.261	+1.062	15	331.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.936	+0.90%	8	Medium
13	Ai Ogura	02:01.275	+1.076	11	327.2	Hard / Medium	2:01.870	+0.84%	5	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	02:01.313	+1.114	12	331.2	Hard / Medium	2:02.334	+1.23%	6	Medium
15	Enea Bastianini	02:01.338	+1.139	12	332.3	Hard / Medium	2:01.529	+0.56%	5	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.399	+1.200	11	328.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:01.465	+1.266	11	329.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
18	Alex Rins	02:01.579	+1.380	12	331.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	02:01.757	+1.558	11	326.2	Hard / Medium	2:02.383	+1.27%	5	Medium
20	Michele Pirro	02:02.396	+2.197	12	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	02:02.838	+2.639	12	326.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Augusto Fernandez	02:02.952	+2.753	11	328.2	Hard / Medium	2:03.997	+2.60%	6	Medium
23	Somkiat Chantra	02:02.985	+2.786	13	329.2	Hard / Medium	—			—

Practice · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:57.559	—	18	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:59.266	+0.32%	7	Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:57.578	+0.019	17	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:57.840	+0.281	20	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Joan Mir	01:57.854	+0.295	18	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:59.070	+0.15%	6	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.868	+0.309	15	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:58.039	+0.480	18	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.041	+0.482	17	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:58.055	+0.496	18	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	01:58.057	+0.498	19	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:58.891	—	5	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:58.117	+0.558	17	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Luca Marini	01:58.179	+0.620	20	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:59.945	+0.89%	5	Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.206	+0.647	17	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Fermin Aldeguer	01:58.279	+0.720	15	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Ai Ogura	01:58.300	+0.741	15	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.888	+1.68%	5	Soft
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.360	+0.801	20	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:59.182	+0.25%	6	Soft
16	Raul Fernandez	01:58.581	+1.022	18	330.2	Soft / Soft	1:59.898	+0.85%	5	Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:58.739	+1.180	19	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.584	+1.42%	5	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.776	+1.217	20	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.232	+1.13%	5	Soft
19	Enea Bastianini	01:58.953	+1.394	17	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:58.964	+1.405	18	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:59.252	+1.693	18	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Michele Pirro	01:59.741	+2.182	19	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Augusto Fernandez	01:59.974	+2.415	15	326.2	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Luca Marini	01:58.415	—	11	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.422	+0.007	10	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.585	+0.170	12	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:59.204	+0.08%	6	Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:58.692	+0.277	13	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:59.113	—	5	Soft
5	Fermin Aldeguer	01:58.724	+0.309	11	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.728	+0.313	10	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:59.295	+0.15%	5	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:58.752	+0.337	9	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.788	+0.373	13	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:59.655	+0.46%	5	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:58.852	+0.437	13	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:59.877	+0.64%	5	Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	01:58.964	+0.549	12	340.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Raul Fernandez	01:58.997	+0.582	10	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.196	+0.781	11	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:59.302	+0.887	12	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.354	+1.88%	7	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.330	+0.915	12	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:59.423	+0.26%	5	Soft
15	Jack Miller	01:59.410	+0.995	12	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Ai Ogura	01:59.489	+1.074	12	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Brad Binder	01:59.506	+1.091	12	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Enea Bastianini	01:59.606	+1.191	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:59.909	+1.494	11	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Rins	01:59.984	+1.569	10	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Somkiat Chantra	02:00.616	+2.201	11	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Augusto Fernandez	02:00.768	+2.353	12	328.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.943	+1.54%	5	Soft
23	Michele Pirro	02:01.164	+2.749	11	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.797	+2.25%	4	Soft

Q1 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fermin Aldeguer	01:57.148	—	6	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.190	+0.042	6	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Luca Marini	01:57.525	+0.377	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:57.549	+0.401	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Raul Fernandez	01:57.776	+0.628	7	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:57.894	+0.746	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Ai Ogura	01:58.034	+0.886	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Brad Binder	01:58.183	+1.035	7	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Enea Bastianini	01:58.189	+1.041	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Somkiat Chantra	01:58.623	+1.475	7	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:58.791	+1.643	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Michele Pirro	01:59.255	+2.107	7	336.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:59.382	+2.234	7	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.025	—	5	Soft

Q2 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.001	—	4	338.5	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:57.017	+0.016	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.159	+0.158	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.195	+0.194	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:57.363	+0.362	7	341.7	Soft / Soft
6	Fermin Aldeguer	01:57.439	+0.438	7	331.2	Soft / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:57.440	+0.439	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:57.522	+0.521	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:57.531	+0.530	6	338.5	Soft / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:57.945	+0.944	6	334.3	Soft / Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:57.949	+0.948	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:58.174	+1.173	6	335.4	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	19:53.725	12	10	Soft / Soft	1:58.853	—	8	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+2.259	9	10	Soft / Soft	1:58.996	+0.12%	8	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	+5.155	7	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.233	+0.32%	8	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	+6.541	6	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.570	+0.60%	8	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	+8.468	5	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.554	+0.59%	8	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+10.232	4	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.729	+0.74%	8	Soft
7	Fermin Aldeguer	+11.138	3	10	Soft / Soft	1:58.922	+0.06%	8	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	+12.627	2	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.211	+1.14%	8	Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	+12.974	1	10	Soft / Soft	1:59.941	+0.92%	8	Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+14.515	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.134	+1.08%	8	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+14.924	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.173	+1.11%	8	Soft
12	Ai Ogura	+15.394	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.238	+1.17%	8	Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	+15.461	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.055	+1.01%	8	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+17.601	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.298	+1.22%	8	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+17.721	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.584	+1.46%	8	Soft
16	Brad Binder	+18.248	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.327	+1.24%	7	Soft
17	Somkiat Chantra	+22.398	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:00.703	+1.56%	8	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+22.478	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:00.727	+1.58%	8	Soft
19	Augusto Fernandez	+25.412	0	10	Soft / Soft	2:01.216	+1.99%	8	Soft
20	Michele Pirro	+26.074	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:00.974	+1.79%	6	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Luca Marini		0	7	Soft / Soft	1:59.521	+0.56%	5	Soft
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:58.979	—	5	332.3	Soft / Soft
2	Fermin Aldeguer	01:59.076	+0.097	5	332.3	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.093	+0.114	5	333.3	Medium / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.311	+0.332	5	336.4	Medium / Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	01:59.360	+0.381	5	338.5	Soft / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:59.460	+0.481	5	327.2	Soft / Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:59.501	+0.522	5	328.2	Medium / Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:59.586	+0.607	5	333.3	Medium / Medium
9	Brad Binder	01:59.641	+0.662	5	337.5	Soft / Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:59.646	+0.667	5	333.3	Soft / Soft
11	Ai Ogura	01:59.709	+0.730	5	334.3	Soft / Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.741	+0.762	5	338.5	Soft / Medium
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.784	+0.805	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
14	Pedro Acosta	01:59.803	+0.824	5	334.3	Soft / Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.984	+1.005	5	326.2	Medium / Medium
16	Joan Mir	01:59.997	+1.018	5	338.5	Soft / Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.440	+1.461	5	334.3	Soft / Medium
18	Jack Miller	02:00.495	+1.516	5	334.3	Medium / Medium
19	Alex Rins	02:00.748	+1.769	5	330.2	Medium / Medium
20	Michele Pirro	02:00.850	+1.871	5	331.2	Medium / Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	02:00.995	+2.016	5	330.2	Soft / Soft
22	Augusto Fernandez	02:02.041	+3.062	5	324.3	Medium / Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	02:02.364	+3.385	5	329.2	Medium / Medium

Race · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	40:09.249	25	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.262	—	18	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	+2.676	20	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.313	+0.04%	18	Soft
3	Joan Mir	+8.048	16	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.509	+0.21%	17	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	+8.580	13	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.543	+0.23%	18	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	+11.556	11	20	Soft / Soft	2:01.145	+0.73%	18	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+13.060	10	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.637	+0.31%	18	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	+15.299	9	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.926	+0.55%	17	Soft
8	Luca Marini	+18.738	8	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.025	+0.63%	18	Soft
9	Brad Binder	+18.932	7	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.899	+0.53%	18	Soft
10	Ai Ogura	+19.256	6	20	Soft / Soft	2:01.048	+0.65%	18	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+19.824	5	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.865	+0.50%	18	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	+22.234	4	20	Soft / Soft	2:00.977	+0.60%	18	Soft
13	Alex Rins	+23.509	3	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.524	+1.05%	18	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+25.201	2	20	Soft / Soft	2:01.442	+0.98%	18	Soft
15	Somkiat Chantra	+34.110	1	20	Soft / Soft	2:01.512	+1.04%	18	Soft
16	Lorenzo Savadori	+36.115	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.842	+1.31%	18	Soft
17	Michele Pirro	+43.914	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.214	+1.62%	18	Soft
18	Augusto Fernandez	+47.060	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:02.453	+1.82%	18	Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	+77.942	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.321	+0.88%	17	Soft
Retired	Fermin Aldeguer		0	16	Soft / Soft	2:00.516	+0.21%	14	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	18	Medium / Soft	2:00.326	+0.05%	16	Soft
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	4	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	11	Medium / Soft	2:00.548	+0.24%	9	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Luca Marini	57%	3
2	Francesco Bagnaia	43%	2 ✓
3	Fermin Aldeguer	28%	1 ✓
4	Marco Bezzecchi	21%	4
5	Raul Fernandez	19%	5
6	Ai Ogura	11%	7
7	Miguel Oliveira	7%	6
8	Brad Binder	4%	8
9	Enea Bastianini	3%	9
10	Somkiat Chantra	3%	10
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	11
12	Michele Pirro	2%	12
13	Augusto Fernandez	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Joan Mir	38%	66%	88%	7
2	Franco Morbidelli	21%	53%	81%	3
3	Pedro Acosta	14%	45%	75%	5
4	Johann Zarco	6%	32%	67%	9
5	Fabio Quartararo	4%	25%	54%	4
6	Francesco Bagnaia	6%	22%	55%	1
7	Jack Miller	1%	13%	41%	11
8	Alex Marquez	3%	15%	38%	2
9	Fermin Aldeguer	3%	8%	30%	6
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	8%	25%	8
11	Pol Espargaro	2%	9%	28%	12
12	Alex Rins	1%	4%	19%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	62%	77%	86%	12%	1
Alex Marquez	2	21%	55%	73%	87%	11%	2
Franco Morbidelli	3	15%	48%	71%	90%	8%	4
Fabio Quartararo	4	11%	36%	59%	82%	14%	5
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	27%	50%	79%	15%	3
Fermin Aldeguer	6	5%	21%	44%	81%	11%	7
Joan Mir	7	3%	14%	31%	68%	22%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	3%	12%	29%	72%	14%	10
Johann Zarco	9	1%	6%	16%	58%	23%	8
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	15%	63%	10%	15
Jack Miller	11	1%	5%	11%	55%	9%	14
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	3%	7%	47%	12%	11
Luca Marini	13	0%	2%	5%	37%	10%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	14	0%	2%	4%	27%	15%	6
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	1%	3%	23%	6%	13
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	11%	—
Ai Ogura	17	0%	1%	1%	11%	4%	12
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	18%	16
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	12%	9
Somkiat Chantra	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	9%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	18
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	20
Augusto Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	33%	61%	72%	76%	23%	—
Alex Marquez	2	21%	52%	68%	76%	22%	1
Franco Morbidelli	3	11%	40%	64%	82%	16%	4
Fabio Quartararo	4	11%	40%	66%	84%	13%	5
Pedro Acosta	5	10%	38%	61%	79%	19%	2
Fermin Aldeguer	6	12%	42%	65%	81%	17%	—
Joan Mir	7	1%	10%	27%	57%	37%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	0%	3%	15%	63%	16%	6
Johann Zarco	9	1%	4%	16%	65%	19%	12
Alex Rins	10	0%	0%	2%	29%	20%	13
Jack Miller	11	0%	0%	2%	29%	25%	14
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	2%	7%	49%	20%	—
Luca Marini	13	0%	5%	20%	73%	8%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	14	0%	2%	10%	57%	17%	11
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	0%	2%	24%	19%	—
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	0%	1%	13%	21%	19
Ai Ogura	17	0%	0%	1%	19%	25%	10
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	14%	9
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	2%	27%	18%	7
Somkiat Chantra	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	15
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	29%	16
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	17
Augusto Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	25%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fermin Aldeguer	23% → 42%	+18	5% → 12%
Pedro Acosta	29% → 38%	+9	8% → 10%
Francesco Bagnaia	54% → 61%	+8	27% → 33%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16% → 3%	−13	3% → 0%
Alex Rins	7% → 0%	−7	1% → 0%
Johann Zarco	9% → 4%	−5	2% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:58.853	—	+0.221	Soft	8
Fermin Aldeguer	1:58.922	+0.069	+0.884	Soft	8
Alex Marquez	1:58.996	+0.143	+0.356	Soft	8
Pedro Acosta	1:59.233	+0.380	+0.448	Soft	8
Luca Marini	1:59.521	+0.668	+0.308	Soft	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.554	+0.701	+0.275	Soft	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:59.570	+0.717	+0.512	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:59.729	+0.876	+0.553	Soft	8
Enea Bastianini	1:59.941	+1.088	+0.319	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	2:00.055	+1.202	+0.667	Soft	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:00.134	+1.281	+0.320	Soft	8
Pol Espargaro	2:00.173	+1.320	+0.406	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	2:00.211	+1.358	+0.344	Soft	8
Ai Ogura	2:00.238	+1.385	+0.300	Soft	8
Jack Miller	2:00.298	+1.445	+0.105	Soft	8
Brad Binder	2:00.327	+1.474	+0.327	Soft	7
Alex Rins	2:00.584	+1.731	+0.217	Soft	8
Somkiat Chantra	2:00.703	+1.850	+0.221	Soft	8
Lorenzo Savadori	2:00.727	+1.874	+0.781	Soft	8
Michele Pirro	2:00.974	+2.121	+0.267	Soft	6
Augusto Fernandez	2:01.216	+2.363	+0.437	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	545	—
2	Alex Marquez	379	−166
3	Marco Bezzecchi	282	−263
4	Francesco Bagnaia	274	−271
5	Pedro Acosta	233	−312
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	216	−329

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/19

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.141 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P21 to P10.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Pedro Acosta (14 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:59.618	—	+0.221	Medium	17
Jorge Martin	1:59.998	+0.380	+0.457	Medium	17
Enea Bastianini	2:00.337	+0.719	+0.319	Medium	17
Pedro Acosta	2:00.546	+0.928	+0.448	Medium	15
Alex Marquez	2:00.553	+0.935	+0.356	Medium	17
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.785	+1.167	+0.275	Medium	17
Maverick Viñales	2:00.847	+1.229	+0.292	Medium	17
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.911	+1.293	+0.512	Medium	16
Marc Marquez	2:00.954	+1.336	+0.210	Medium	16
Alex Rins	2:00.955	+1.337	+0.217	Medium	17

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.12%	+0.095	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.