Round 2 of 22 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2025

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014

14.03 – 16.03.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:11.100	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.362	20
3	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+4.695	16
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.536	13
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+7.138	11
6	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+7.487	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.294	9
8	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.646	8
9	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+15.787	7
10	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+16.025	6
11	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.663	5
12	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+22.319	4
13	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+23.486	3
14	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+25.148	2
15	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+26.914	1
16	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+27.661	0
17	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+40.179	0
18	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+41.693	0
DNF	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Disqualified	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:37.331	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.903	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.859	7
4	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+5.026	6
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.451	5
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.333	4
7	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.368	3
8	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+10.858	2
9	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.229	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+12.356	0
11	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.201	0
12	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.298	0
13	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+16.653	0
14	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+18.442	0
15	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+18.618	0
16	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+19.560	0
17	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+20.925	0
18	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+21.287	0
19	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+45.325	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 29% ✓	Marc Marquez · 29% · from P1	0.90 / 0.90	1.9 / 1.9
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 27% ✓	Marc Marquez · 27% · from P1	0.84 / 0.84	2.5 / 2.5
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 38% ✓	Marc Marquez · 38% · from P1	0.86 / 0.84	2.3 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.732	—	+0.210	Medium	23
Alex Marquez	1:38.810	+0.078	+0.356	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.833	+0.101	+0.512	Soft	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.865	+0.133	+0.221	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:38.946	+0.214	+0.344	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.000	+0.268	+0.320	Soft	23
Ai Ogura	1:39.145	+0.413	+0.300	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:39.168	+0.436	+0.327	Medium	23
Joan Mir	1:39.259	+0.527	+0.562	Medium	23
Pedro Acosta	1:39.279	+0.547	+0.448	Medium	22
Luca Marini	1:39.303	+0.571	+0.308	Medium	23
Maverick Viñales	1:39.499	+0.767	+0.292	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:39.524	+0.792	+0.217	Soft	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.530	+0.798	+0.275	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:39.566	+0.834	+0.105	Medium	23
Raul Fernandez	1:39.580	+0.848	+0.667	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:39.620	+0.888	+0.319	Medium	22
Fermin Aldeguer	1:39.699	+0.967	+0.884	Soft	23
Somkiat Chantra	1:40.250	+1.518	+0.221	Soft	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

8/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.362 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Ai Ogura, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

12/12

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.903 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P21 to P14.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:42	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:09:27	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:09:27	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:12:39	Lorenzo Savadori	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:02:26	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:03:53	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	15:05:22	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:08:34	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:08:47	Fermin Aldeguer	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:10:17	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, #79 Ogura disqualified for Technical regulations infringement.
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #54

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Enea Bastianini	20	14	+6
Ai Ogura	15	10	+5
Brad Binder	11	7	+4
Fabio Quartararo	7	19	−12
Jack Miller	13	16	−3
Pedro Acosta	5	8	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Franco Morbidelli	8→3	+4.3
Luca Marini	16→10	+2.5
Maverick Viñales	19→12	+2.4
Somkiat Chantra	18→18	−4.2
Fermin Aldeguer	14→16	−4.8
Fabio Quartararo	7→14	−7.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	74%	+0.54%	+0.005	1	2	9.1
Soft	26%	+0.80%	+0.010	0	1	10.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.2 °C

Air

max 27.3 °C

61%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.937	—	17	336.2	Soft / Medium	1:40.980	+0.95%	13	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:38.963	+0.026	19	333.6	Soft / Medium	1:40.035	—	6	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:39.208	+0.271	17	339.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.927	+0.89%	13	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.408	+0.471	20	337.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.910	+2.87%	11	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.582	+0.645	21	343.6	Soft / Medium	1:40.694	+0.66%	17	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:39.583	+0.646	16	339.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Jack Miller	01:39.639	+0.702	18	334.4	Soft / Medium	1:44.018	+3.98%	6	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:39.889	+0.952	20	338.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.445	+1.41%	11	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:39.894	+0.957	20	337.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.203	+2.17%	16	Medium
10	Pedro Acosta	01:39.928	+0.991	20	342.7	Soft / Medium	1:42.190	+2.15%	16	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:39.955	+1.018	21	338.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.874	+1.84%	16	Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:39.979	+1.042	19	334.4	Soft / Medium	1:42.535	+2.50%	10	Medium
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.011	+1.074	22	339.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.654	+1.62%	18	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.085	+1.148	18	338.1	Soft / Medium	1:43.992	+3.96%	6	Medium
15	Ai Ogura	01:40.162	+1.225	19	339.0	missing / missing	1:42.501	+2.47%	11	Medium
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.288	+1.351	16	340.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.717	+1.68%	5	Medium
17	Fermin Aldeguer	01:40.595	+1.658	18	336.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.792	+1.76%	12	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.772	+1.835	19	336.2	Soft / Medium	1:44.118	+4.08%	10	Medium
19	Somkiat Chantra	01:40.782	+1.845	17	335.3	Soft / Medium	1:42.560	+2.52%	13	Medium
20	Raul Fernandez	01:40.886	+1.949	18	334.4	Soft / Medium	1:42.009	+1.97%	11	Medium
21	Enea Bastianini	01:41.030	+2.093	18	337.1	Medium / Soft	1:44.366	+4.33%	7	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.876	+2.939	19	337.1	Soft / Medium	1:44.511	+4.47%	10	Medium

Practice · 14.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.295	—	24	338.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.430	+0.135	22	343.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.053	+0.56%	5	Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:37.496	+0.201	23	339.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.500	—	12	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.510	+0.215	26	342.7	Medium / Soft	1:38.833	+0.34%	13	Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:37.546	+0.251	24	346.5	Medium / Soft	1:39.478	+0.99%	10	Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:37.591	+0.296	24	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:41.510	+3.06%	5	missing
7	Johann Zarco	01:37.685	+0.390	21	339.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.818	+0.523	23	339.0	missing / missing	1:39.449	+0.96%	7	Medium
9	Pedro Acosta	01:37.827	+0.532	22	345.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.117	+1.64%	5	Soft
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.834	+0.539	20	345.5	Medium / Soft	1:38.939	+0.45%	5	Soft
11	Ai Ogura	01:37.855	+0.560	25	340.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.244	+0.76%	8	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.931	+0.636	22	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.910	+1.43%	5	Medium
13	Joan Mir	01:37.975	+0.680	26	339.0	missing / missing	1:39.249	+0.76%	7	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:38.058	+0.763	24	338.1	Medium / Soft	1:39.571	+1.09%	6	Soft
15	Luca Marini	01:38.136	+0.841	22	337.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Maverick Viñales	01:38.315	+1.020	23	340.8	Soft / Soft	1:40.106	+1.63%	9	Medium
17	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.347	+1.052	22	338.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.649	+1.354	22	339.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.241	+1.77%	5	Soft
19	Somkiat Chantra	01:38.651	+1.356	24	339.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:38.746	+1.451	20	337.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Enea Bastianini	01:38.785	+1.490	23	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.891	+1.41%	7	Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.076	+1.781	24	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.893	+2.43%	11	Soft

FP2 · 15.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:37.795	—	14	339.9	Medium / Soft	1:38.416	—	10	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:37.882	+0.087	15	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.685	+0.27%	11	Medium
3	Johann Zarco	01:37.965	+0.170	15	338.1	Medium / Soft	1:38.486	+0.07%	11	Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.017	+0.222	12	343.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.708	+0.30%	5	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:38.211	+0.416	14	345.5	Medium / Soft	1:38.755	+0.34%	6	Soft
6	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.372	+0.577	13	342.7	Soft / Soft	1:38.847	+0.44%	5	Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.396	+0.601	12	344.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.409	+0.614	15	343.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.750	+0.34%	11	Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:38.409	+0.614	12	340.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.414	+0.619	14	342.7	Medium / Soft	1:38.904	+0.50%	10	Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:38.416	+0.621	12	338.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.438	+0.643	10	343.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.562	+0.15%	5	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:38.465	+0.670	14	337.1	Medium / Soft	1:38.842	+0.43%	6	Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:38.500	+0.705	14	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:38.971	+0.56%	10	Soft
15	Ai Ogura	01:38.614	+0.819	12	342.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.385	+0.99%	6	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.635	+0.840	12	340.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.009	+0.60%	5	Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:38.689	+0.894	14	346.5	Medium / Medium	1:39.511	+1.11%	10	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	01:38.765	+0.970	11	338.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Maverick Viñales	01:38.785	+0.990	13	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:39.495	+1.10%	5	Soft
20	Enea Bastianini	01:39.268	+1.473	13	344.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.454	+1.06%	4	Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	01:39.620	+1.825	14	339.9	Soft / Soft	1:39.873	+1.48%	10	Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.905	+2.110	12	343.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 15.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.312	—	7	343.6	Medium / Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:37.526	+0.214	8	339.9	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:37.604	+0.292	8	339.0	Medium / Soft
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:37.717	+0.405	8	343.6	Soft / Soft
5	Ai Ogura	01:37.746	+0.434	6	341.8	Medium / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:37.983	+0.671	8	339.9	Medium / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.055	+0.743	8	341.8	Medium / Soft
8	Raul Fernandez	01:38.157	+0.845	8	341.8	Medium / Soft
9	Somkiat Chantra	01:38.168	+0.856	5	342.7	Soft / Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:38.246	+0.934	7	345.5	Soft / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:38.328	+1.016	8	340.8	Medium / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:39.244	+1.932	7	343.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 15.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:36.917	—	8	344.6	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:37.163	+0.246	8	343.6	Medium / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:37.205	+0.288	7	344.6	Medium / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.268	+0.351	8	343.6	Medium / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:37.274	+0.357	8	348.4	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.286	+0.369	9	346.5	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.347	+0.430	8	342.7	Medium / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.382	+0.465	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.414	+0.497	8	344.6	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:37.596	+0.679	7	338.1	Medium / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:37.702	+0.785	7	346.5	Medium / Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:37.749	+0.832	7	340.8	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 15.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	19:37.331	12	12	Medium / Soft	1:37.874	—	10	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+0.903	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:37.878	+0.00%	10	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.859	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.084	+0.22%	10	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	+5.026	6	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.193	+0.33%	10	Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+6.451	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.306	+0.44%	10	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+7.333	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.334	+0.47%	10	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	+8.368	3	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.404	+0.54%	10	Soft
8	Joan Mir	+10.858	2	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.709	+0.85%	10	Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	+11.229	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.932	+1.08%	10	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	+12.356	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.967	+1.12%	10	Soft
11	Jack Miller	+15.201	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.888	+1.04%	10	Soft
12	Alex Rins	+15.298	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.968	+1.12%	10	Soft
13	Luca Marini	+16.653	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.030	+1.18%	10	Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	+18.442	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.184	+1.34%	10	Soft
15	Ai Ogura	+18.618	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.095	+1.25%	10	Soft
16	Raul Fernandez	+19.560	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.242	+1.40%	10	Soft
17	Somkiat Chantra	+20.925	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.339	+1.50%	10	Soft
18	Maverick Viñales	+21.287	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.176	+1.33%	10	Soft
19	Fermin Aldeguer	+45.325	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.727	+0.87%	9	Soft
Out on lap 1	Brad Binder		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:41.038	+3.23%	4	Soft
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 16.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.889	—	6	342.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	01:37.890	+0.001	7	341.8	Medium / Medium	1:38.320	—	5	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.237	+0.348	4	342.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.241	+0.352	7	338.1	Medium / Medium	1:38.556	+0.24%	5	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.273	+0.384	7	343.6	Medium / Medium	1:38.397	+0.08%	5	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.300	+0.411	6	336.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:38.328	+0.439	6	335.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:38.347	+0.458	6	339.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Pedro Acosta	01:38.368	+0.479	6	343.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.493	+0.604	6	337.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:38.569	+0.680	6	338.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:38.594	+0.705	6	340.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:38.619	+0.730	6	341.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:38.765	+0.876	6	333.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Ai Ogura	01:38.802	+0.913	6	340.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Alex Rins	01:39.043	+1.154	6	335.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Enea Bastianini	01:39.112	+1.223	6	334.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:39.156	+1.267	6	330.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Somkiat Chantra	01:39.418	+1.529	6	336.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.026	+2.137	6	334.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Brad Binder	01:41.241	+3.352	3	339.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 16.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:11.100	25	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.732	—	23	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+1.362	20	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.810	+0.08%	23	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	+4.695	16	25	Medium / Soft	1:38.833	+0.10%	23	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+5.536	13	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.865	+0.14%	23	Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+7.138	11	25	Medium / Soft	1:39.000	+0.27%	23	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	+7.487	10	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.946	+0.22%	23	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+14.294	9	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.168	+0.44%	23	Medium
8	Pedro Acosta	+15.646	8	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.279	+0.55%	22	Medium
9	Joan Mir	+15.787	7	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.259	+0.53%	23	Medium
10	Luca Marini	+16.025	6	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.303	+0.58%	23	Medium
11	Alex Rins	+21.663	5	25	Medium / Soft	1:39.524	+0.80%	23	Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	+22.319	4	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.499	+0.78%	23	Medium
13	Jack Miller	+23.486	3	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.566	+0.85%	23	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	+25.148	2	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.530	+0.81%	22	Medium
15	Raul Fernandez	+26.914	1	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.580	+0.86%	23	Medium
16	Fermin Aldeguer	+27.661	0	25	Medium / Soft	1:39.699	+0.98%	23	Soft
17	Enea Bastianini	+40.179	0	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.620	+0.90%	22	Medium
18	Somkiat Chantra	+41.693	0	25	Medium / Soft	1:40.250	+1.54%	23	Soft
Disqualified	Ai Ogura		0	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.145	+0.42%	23	Medium
Out on lap 1	Marco Bezzecchi		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.150	—	+0.210	Medium	9
Alex Marquez	1:38.290	+0.140	+0.356	Medium	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.484	+0.334	+0.221	Medium	6
Johann Zarco	1:38.524	+0.374	+0.344	Medium	6
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.556	+0.406	+0.553	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.713	+0.563	+0.275	Medium	7
Pedro Acosta	1:38.728	+0.578	+0.448	Medium	11
Luca Marini	1:38.738	+0.588	+0.308	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:38.843	+0.693	+0.562	Medium	8
Ai Ogura	1:38.918*	+0.768	+0.300	Medium	4
Fermin Aldeguer	1:39.160	+1.010	+0.884	Medium	5
Brad Binder	1:39.231	+1.081	+0.327	Medium	5
Enea Bastianini	1:39.428	+1.278	+0.319	Medium	5
Alex Rins	1:39.626*	+1.476	+0.217	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:39.684*	+1.534	+0.667	Medium	3
Somkiat Chantra	1:39.912*	+1.762	+0.221	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	56%	1 ✓
2	Joan Mir	42%	2 ✓
3	Jack Miller	30%	3
4	Ai Ogura	20%	5
5	Fermin Aldeguer	19%	4
6	Luca Marini	11%	6
7	Miguel Oliveira	7%	7
8	Maverick Viñales	4%	10
9	Raul Fernandez	3%	8
10	Somkiat Chantra	3%	9
11	Enea Bastianini	4%	11
12	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	36%	65%	87%	1
2	Alex Marquez	22%	52%	81%	2
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	14%	46%	76%	6
4	Johann Zarco	5%	32%	66%	3
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	25%	53%	9
6	Pedro Acosta	6%	22%	56%	5
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	13%	40%	4
8	Fabio Quartararo	2%	15%	38%	7
9	Brad Binder	3%	9%	30%	11
10	Alex Rins	2%	9%	26%	12
11	Franco Morbidelli	2%	10%	29%	8
12	Joan Mir	1%	4%	20%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Lorenzo Savadori	22	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Miguel Oliveira	17	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	62%	78%	87%	11%	1
Alex Marquez	2	21%	54%	72%	86%	13%	2
Johann Zarco	3	13%	41%	61%	78%	19%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	38%	62%	84%	13%	3
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	27%	49%	77%	18%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	6%	20%	40%	74%	18%	5
Fabio Quartararo	7	4%	18%	39%	80%	8%	10
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	14%	32%	79%	6%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	8%	18%	63%	17%	6
Joan Mir	10	1%	5%	13%	54%	24%	8
Brad Binder	11	1%	4%	11%	53%	13%	—
Alex Rins	12	1%	3%	8%	43%	15%	12
Jack Miller	13	1%	2%	6%	39%	8%	11
Fermin Aldeguer	14	0%	1%	3%	29%	11%	19
Ai Ogura	15	0%	1%	3%	23%	11%	15
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	13%	13
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	1%	1%	12%	4%	16
Somkiat Chantra	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	11%	17
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	8%	18
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	10%	14
Miguel Oliveira	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	38%	67%	77%	83%	16%	1
Alex Marquez	2	23%	55%	67%	74%	23%	2
Johann Zarco	3	13%	47%	67%	80%	17%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	4	13%	44%	63%	75%	23%	4
Pedro Acosta	5	2%	11%	30%	71%	20%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	6%	30%	56%	81%	16%	5
Fabio Quartararo	7	0%	5%	18%	69%	12%	14
Franco Morbidelli	8	2%	15%	38%	76%	16%	3
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	14%	35%	77%	15%	—
Joan Mir	10	1%	6%	17%	56%	33%	9
Brad Binder	11	0%	2%	9%	57%	12%	7
Alex Rins	12	0%	1%	4%	36%	22%	11
Jack Miller	13	0%	2%	8%	48%	24%	13
Fermin Aldeguer	14	0%	2%	9%	53%	16%	16
Ai Ogura	15	0%	0%	1%	24%	16%	—
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	1%	19%	9%	10
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	0%	5%	22%	15
Somkiat Chantra	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	16%	18
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	0%	6%	13%	12
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	16%	17
Miguel Oliveira	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	21%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	28%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	56% → 67%	+11	27% → 38%
Alex Marquez	45% → 55%	+10	19% → 23%
Francesco Bagnaia	35% → 44%	+9	10% → 13%
Dropping
Pedro Acosta	28% → 11%	−17	8% → 2%
Fabio Quartararo	21% → 5%	−16	5% → 0%
Brad Binder	6% → 2%	−4	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:37.874	—	+0.210	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:37.878	+0.004	+0.356	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.084	+0.210	+0.221	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:38.193	+0.319	+0.344	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.306	+0.432	+0.320	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.334	+0.460	+0.553	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.404	+0.530	+0.512	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:38.709	+0.835	+0.562	Soft	10
Fermin Aldeguer	1:38.727	+0.853	+0.884	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:38.888	+1.014	+0.105	Soft	10
Pedro Acosta	1:38.932	+1.058	+0.448	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.967	+1.093	+0.275	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:38.968	+1.094	+0.217	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:39.030	+1.156	+0.308	Soft	10
Ai Ogura	1:39.095	+1.221	+0.300	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:39.176	+1.302	+0.292	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:39.184	+1.310	+0.319	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:39.242	+1.368	+0.667	Soft	10
Somkiat Chantra	1:39.339	+1.465	+0.221	Soft	10
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.038	+3.164	+0.781	Soft	4

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.37%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.02%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.79%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Maverick Viñales +0.05%	Jorge Martin +0.44%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.10%	Luca Marini +0.13%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.25%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Pol Espargaro +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aleix Espargaro +0.00%	Alex Rins +0.32%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%
S4	Brad Binder	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Franco Morbidelli +0.27%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Cal Crutchlow +0.16%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Cal Crutchlow +0.22%	Valentino Rossi +0.58%
S2	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Cal Crutchlow +0.93%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100

Position index

60%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	37	—
2	Alex Marquez	29	−8
3	Francesco Bagnaia	23	−14
4	Franco Morbidelli	18	−19
5	Ai Ogura	17	−20
6	Marco Bezzecchi	10	−27

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

4.085 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jack Miller, from P16 to P6.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:46.641	—	+0.344	Wet-Medium	15
Alex Marquez	1:46.687	+0.046	+0.356	Wet-Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:46.807	+0.166	+0.221	Wet-Medium	14
Jack Miller	1:47.000	+0.359	+0.105	Wet-Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.017	+0.376	+0.275	Wet-Medium	10
Alex Rins	1:47.148	+0.507	+0.217	Wet-Medium	19
Jorge Martin	1:47.206	+0.565	+0.457	Wet-Medium	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:47.265	+0.624	+0.320	Wet-Medium	23
Raul Fernandez	1:47.266	+0.625	+0.667	Wet-Medium	13
Brad Binder	1:47.289	+0.648	+0.327	Wet-Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2016Marc MarquezHonda
2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	2/20	10%
2023	0/17	0%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/22	23%
2018	3/24	13%
2017	7/23	30%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	100%	+0.50%	+0.043	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.