Round 1 of 22 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2025

4.554 m · 26 laps · since 2018

28.02 – 02.03.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	39:37.244	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.732	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.398	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.176	13
5	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+7.450	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+14.967	10
7	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+15.225	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.929	8
9	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+20.053	7
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+21.546	6
11	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+22.315	5
12	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+23.940	4
13	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+24.760	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+26.097	2
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+26.456	1
16	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+28.770	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+31.095	0
18	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+31.480	0
19	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+42.115	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+46.827	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:35.005	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.185	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.423	7
4	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+4.392	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.790	5
6	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.700	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.437	3
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.228	2
9	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+15.453	1
10	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+16.209	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+16.817	0
12	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+17.152	0
13	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+17.741	0
14	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+18.984	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+19.149	0
16	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+19.569	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+20.140	0
18	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+23.948	0
19	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+24.594	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+31.443	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.93 / 0.93	1.9 / 1.8
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.71 / 0.71	3.1 / 3.1
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 39% ✓	Marc Marquez · 39% · from P1	0.67 / 0.71	3.3 / 3.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:31.262	—	+0.210	Medium	24
Alex Marquez	1:31.270	+0.008	+0.356	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.308	+0.046	+0.221	Medium	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.372	+0.110	+0.512	Medium	24
Ai Ogura	1:31.444	+0.182	+0.300	Soft	24
Joan Mir	1:31.713	+0.451	+0.562	Soft	12
Pedro Acosta	1:31.775	+0.513	+0.448	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:31.863	+0.601	+0.344	Medium	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.866	+0.604	+0.553	Medium	24
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.900	+0.638	+0.320	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:31.941	+0.679	+0.327	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.957	+0.695	+0.319	Soft	24
Jack Miller	1:32.018	+0.756	+0.105	Soft	24
Luca Marini	1:32.048	+0.786	+0.308	Soft	24
Raul Fernandez	1:32.082	+0.820	+0.667	Medium	20
Alex Rins	1:32.088	+0.826	+0.217	Soft	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.145	+0.883	+0.193	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:32.156	+0.894	+0.292	Soft	24
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.168	+0.906	+0.275	Soft	24
Fermin Aldeguer	1:32.171	+0.909	+0.884	Soft	24
Somkiat Chantra	1:32.238	+0.976	+0.221	Medium	23
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.965	+1.703	+0.781	Soft	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.732 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P9.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Miguel Oliveira (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.185 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P14 to P8.

Longest battle: Ai Ogura vs Francesco Bagnaia (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:12:29	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:19:26	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:06:57	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:25:02	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:36:20	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction,3 positions penalty for rider #21 Morbidell & #35 Chantra

Sprint: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	19	15	+4
Enea Bastianini	20	17	+3
Somkiat Chantra	22	20	+2
Fabio Quartararo	10	18	−8
Maverick Viñales	18	21	−3
Luca Marini	16	19	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	20→9	+6.0
Franco Morbidelli	9→4	+4.0
Brad Binder	14→8	+3.2
Jack Miller	4→11	−6.2
Fabio Quartararo	10→15	−6.4
Pedro Acosta	6→19	−13.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	50%	+0.66%	+0.042	1	3	7.8
Soft	50%	+0.91%	+0.032	0	0	13.2

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

36.8 °C

Air

max 37.0 °C

33%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.02

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.423	—	18	338.5	Hard / Medium	1:30.135	—	10	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.581	+0.158	20	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.040	+3.22%	10	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.765	+0.342	19	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:31.305	+1.30%	9	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:29.840	+0.417	20	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.086	+2.17%	6	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.851	+0.428	21	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:30.278	+0.16%	11	Medium
6	Ai Ogura	01:29.919	+0.496	21	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.055	+1.02%	5	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:29.944	+0.521	20	337.5	Hard / Medium	1:30.575	+0.49%	10	Medium
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.018	+0.595	19	334.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.292	+1.28%	11	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:30.054	+0.631	15	337.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.141	+0.718	19	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:30.750	+0.68%	9	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:30.219	+0.796	19	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.216	+1.20%	5	Medium
12	Luca Marini	01:30.233	+0.810	14	330.2	Hard / Medium	1:31.199	+1.18%	5	Medium
13	Joan Mir	01:30.241	+0.818	19	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.269	+0.846	17	336.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Pedro Acosta	01:30.385	+0.962	25	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:31.343	+1.34%	17	Soft
16	Somkiat Chantra	01:30.471	+1.048	17	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.098	+1.07%	10	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.537	+1.114	18	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.343	+1.34%	10	Medium
18	Brad Binder	01:30.640	+1.217	24	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.029	+0.99%	19	Soft
19	Alex Rins	01:30.696	+1.273	19	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.003	+2.07%	4	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:30.722	+1.299	17	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:30.875	+0.82%	5	Medium
21	Raul Fernandez	01:31.040	+1.617	20	332.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.737	+1.78%	7	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.844	+2.421	18	331.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.389	+2.50%	5	Medium

Practice · 28.02

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:29.020	—	23	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.318	+0.25%	6	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.072	+0.052	26	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.093	—	5	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:29.262	+0.242	23	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.372	+0.31%	11	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.267	+0.247	20	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.535	+0.49%	5	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.306	+0.286	25	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:31.181	+1.21%	10	Soft
6	Joan Mir	01:29.398	+0.378	23	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Raul Fernandez	01:29.462	+0.442	20	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.975	+0.98%	5	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.485	+0.465	27	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.856	+0.85%	10	Soft
9	Ai Ogura	01:29.597	+0.577	23	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	01:29.608	+0.588	25	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:29.681	+0.661	28	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.359	+2.52%	9	Medium
12	Brad Binder	01:29.695	+0.675	26	338.5	Hard / Soft	1:31.168	+1.19%	12	Medium
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.711	+0.691	23	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:29.746	+0.726	21	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.753	+0.733	21	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.194	+1.22%	5	Medium
16	Luca Marini	01:29.787	+0.767	26	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:30.558	+0.52%	5	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.985	+0.965	24	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Enea Bastianini	01:30.165	+1.145	21	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.269	+1.249	24	336.4	Hard / Soft	1:30.615	+0.58%	7	Soft
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:30.286	+1.266	23	333.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.024	+2.004	24	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.736	+2.93%	12	Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 01.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.629	—	13	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.663	+0.75%	5	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.699	+0.070	15	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:29.986	—	8	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.967	+0.338	12	340.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.199	+0.24%	5	Soft
4	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.977	+0.348	12	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.797	+0.90%	5	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:30.068	+0.439	15	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.256	+0.30%	7	Soft
6	Ai Ogura	01:30.206	+0.577	15	334.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.348	+0.40%	11	Medium
7	Johann Zarco	01:30.211	+0.582	15	334.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.661	+0.75%	11	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.279	+0.650	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Somkiat Chantra	01:30.360	+0.731	13	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.562	+0.64%	6	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.369	+0.740	13	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.841	+0.95%	4	Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:30.412	+0.783	13	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.886	+1.00%	5	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:30.433	+0.804	15	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.676	+0.77%	6	Soft
13	Luca Marini	01:30.481	+0.852	14	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.942	+1.06%	5	Soft
14	Pedro Acosta	01:30.492	+0.863	20	336.4	Hard / Medium	1:30.999	+1.13%	18	Medium
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.499	+0.870	11	336.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:30.510	+0.881	11	333.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.558	+0.929	11	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:30.559	+0.930	15	339.6	Hard / Medium	1:30.859	+0.97%	13	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:30.675	+1.046	13	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:30.973	+1.10%	5	Soft
20	Maverick Viñales	01:30.689	+1.060	14	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.821	+2.04%	6	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:30.995	+1.366	12	334.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.938	+2.309	13	330.2	Hard / Medium	1:32.506	+2.80%	5	Medium

Q1 · 01.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.180	—	4	338.5	Soft / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:29.186	+0.006	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.237	+0.057	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:29.468	+0.288	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
5	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.484	+0.304	9	335.4	Soft / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:29.532	+0.352	7	334.3	Hard / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.587	+0.407	7	335.4	Soft / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:29.701	+0.521	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:29.733	+0.553	8	335.4	missing / missing
10	Enea Bastianini	01:29.916	+0.736	8	336.4	missing / missing
11	Somkiat Chantra	01:30.076	+0.896	8	332.3	Hard / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.630	+1.450	8	337.5	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 01.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.782	—	9	340.6	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:28.928	+0.146	8	337.5	Soft / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.955	+0.173	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:29.090	+0.308	8	338.5	Soft / Soft
5	Ai Ogura	01:29.134	+0.352	9	339.6	Soft / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.171	+0.389	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:29.320	+0.538	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
8	Raul Fernandez	01:29.367	+0.585	9	341.7	Soft / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.381	+0.599	6	339.6	Soft / Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.389	+0.607	9	340.6	Soft / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:29.422	+0.640	7	332.3	Soft / Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:29.609	+0.827	8	335.4	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 01.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	19:35.005	12	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.178	—	11	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+1.185	9	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.418	+0.27%	11	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.423	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.447	+0.30%	11	Soft
4	Ai Ogura	+4.392	6	13	Soft / Soft	1:30.491	+0.35%	11	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+5.790	5	13	Hard / Soft	1:30.612	+0.48%	11	Soft
6	Pedro Acosta	+11.700	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.164	+1.09%	11	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+13.437	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.014	+0.93%	11	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+14.228	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.331	+1.28%	11	Soft
9	Joan Mir	+15.453	1	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.425	+1.38%	11	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	+16.209	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.441	+1.40%	11	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+16.817	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.366	+1.32%	11	Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	+17.152	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.442	+1.40%	11	Soft
13	Fermin Aldeguer	+17.741	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.477	+1.44%	11	Soft
14	Maverick Viñales	+18.984	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.579	+1.55%	11	Soft
15	Luca Marini	+19.149	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.550	+1.52%	11	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	+19.569	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.356	+1.31%	10	Soft
17	Alex Rins	+20.140	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.440	+1.40%	11	Soft
18	Enea Bastianini	+23.948	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.665	+1.65%	11	Soft
19	Somkiat Chantra	+24.594	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.725	+1.72%	9	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+31.443	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.490	+2.56%	11	Soft
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	11	Soft / Soft	1:31.151	+1.08%	8	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	6	Hard / Soft	1:30.606	+0.48%	4	Soft

Warm Up · 02.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.460	—	7	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:29.680	—	5	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	01:29.822	+0.362	7	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.129	+0.50%	5	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.885	+0.425	7	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.595	+1.02%	5	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.001	+0.541	6	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.103	+0.643	7	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.779	+1.23%	5	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.311	+0.851	7	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Raul Fernandez	01:30.397	+0.937	6	328.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.417	+0.957	7	327.2	Hard / Medium	1:30.868	+1.33%	5	Medium
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.419	+0.959	7	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.015	+1.49%	5	Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:30.449	+0.989	7	333.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.676	+1.11%	5	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:30.480	+1.020	7	331.2	Soft / Medium	1:30.742	+1.18%	5	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:30.648	+1.188	7	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Ai Ogura	01:30.669	+1.209	7	331.2	Soft / Medium	1:30.769	+1.21%	5	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:30.675	+1.215	6	329.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Luca Marini	01:30.709	+1.249	7	326.2	Hard / Soft	1:30.822	+1.27%	5	Soft
16	Pedro Acosta	01:30.714	+1.254	7	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.813	+1.26%	5	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.717	+1.257	7	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.103	+1.59%	5	Soft
18	Brad Binder	01:30.818	+1.358	7	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.373	+1.89%	5	Soft
19	Maverick Viñales	01:31.007	+1.547	6	334.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Somkiat Chantra	01:31.707	+2.247	7	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.088	+2.69%	5	Medium
21	Joan Mir	01:32.080	+2.620	4	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.325	+2.865	7	329.2	Hard / Medium	1:32.575	+3.23%	4	Medium

Race · 02.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	39:37.244	25	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.262	—	24	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+1.732	20	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.270	+0.01%	24	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.398	16	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.308	+0.05%	24	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+5.176	13	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.372	+0.12%	24	Medium
5	Ai Ogura	+7.450	11	26	Soft / Soft	1:31.444	+0.20%	24	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+14.967	10	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.866	+0.66%	24	Medium
7	Johann Zarco	+15.225	9	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.863	+0.66%	24	Medium
8	Brad Binder	+19.929	8	26	Hard / Medium	1:31.941	+0.74%	24	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	+20.053	7	26	Soft / Soft	1:31.957	+0.76%	24	Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+21.546	6	26	Soft / Medium	1:31.900	+0.70%	24	Medium
11	Jack Miller	+22.315	5	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.018	+0.83%	24	Soft
12	Luca Marini	+23.940	4	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.048	+0.86%	24	Soft
13	Fermin Aldeguer	+24.760	3	26	Soft / Soft	1:32.171	+1.00%	24	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	+26.097	2	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.145	+0.97%	24	Soft
15	Fabio Quartararo	+26.456	1	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.168	+0.99%	24	Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	+28.770	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.156	+0.98%	24	Soft
17	Alex Rins	+31.095	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.088	+0.91%	23	Soft
18	Somkiat Chantra	+31.480	0	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.238	+1.07%	23	Medium
19	Pedro Acosta	+42.115	0	26	Hard / Medium	1:31.775	+0.56%	23	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+46.827	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.965	+1.87%	24	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	14	Soft / Soft	1:31.713	+0.49%	12	Soft
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	22	Hard / Medium	1:32.082	+0.90%	20	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Francesco Bagnaia	55%	1 ✓
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	42%	3
3	Jack Miller	30%	2 ✓
4	Brad Binder	21%	4
5	Fermin Aldeguer	19%	5
6	Luca Marini	11%	6
7	Maverick Viñales	7%	8
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	7
9	Somkiat Chantra	3%	11
10	Enea Bastianini	3%	10
11	Alex Rins	4%	9
12	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	36%	64%	87%	1
2	Alex Marquez	22%	52%	81%	2
3	Franco Morbidelli	14%	47%	76%	6
4	Pedro Acosta	5%	32%	67%	7
5	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	24%	52%	3
6	Ai Ogura	6%	22%	55%	5
7	Joan Mir	1%	13%	41%	11
8	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	15%	39%	9
9	Fabio Quartararo	3%	9%	31%	10
10	Raul Fernandez	2%	9%	26%	8
11	Johann Zarco	2%	10%	30%	12
12	Jack Miller	1%	4%	19%	4

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Franco Morbidelli	6	9	+3
Race	Somkiat Chantra	21	22	+1

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	63%	76%	87%	11%	1
Alex Marquez	2	21%	54%	71%	84%	14%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	46%	67%	85%	13%	3
Jack Miller	4	12%	40%	64%	90%	6%	—
Ai Ogura	5	7%	27%	51%	81%	13%	4
Pedro Acosta	6	5%	20%	41%	75%	18%	6
Raul Fernandez	7	3%	15%	37%	84%	4%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	8	2%	11%	27%	68%	17%	12
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	8%	21%	71%	6%	5
Fabio Quartararo	10	2%	5%	15%	62%	8%	7
Joan Mir	11	1%	3%	8%	44%	25%	9
Johann Zarco	12	1%	2%	7%	40%	20%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	2%	5%	33%	16%	—
Brad Binder	14	0%	1%	4%	29%	13%	8
Fermin Aldeguer	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	13%	13
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	13%	15
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	13%	16
Maverick Viñales	18	0%	1%	1%	8%	8%	14
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	15%	17
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	10%	18
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	20
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	39%	69%	79%	83%	17%	1
Alex Marquez	2	23%	57%	69%	75%	23%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	15%	49%	67%	75%	23%	3
Jack Miller	4	9%	36%	57%	73%	24%	11
Ai Ogura	5	9%	38%	64%	80%	19%	5
Pedro Acosta	6	2%	18%	42%	74%	21%	19
Raul Fernandez	7	0%	2%	9%	48%	21%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	8	0%	3%	12%	59%	15%	6
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	14%	37%	75%	17%	4
Fabio Quartararo	10	1%	7%	24%	72%	12%	15
Joan Mir	11	0%	2%	8%	43%	33%	—
Johann Zarco	12	0%	1%	4%	37%	17%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	5%	18%	66%	16%	10
Brad Binder	14	0%	2%	9%	52%	13%	8
Fermin Aldeguer	15	0%	0%	1%	20%	19%	13
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	0%	12%	9%	12
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	29%	21%	14
Maverick Viñales	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	13%	16
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	15%	22%	17
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	9
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	29%	20
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	19%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Alex Marquez	46% → 57%	+11	19% → 23%
Marc Marquez	59% → 69%	+10	31% → 39%
Francesco Bagnaia	41% → 49%	+8	14% → 15%
Dropping
Raul Fernandez	19% → 2%	−18	4% → 0%
Marco Bezzecchi	14% → 3%	−11	3% → 0%
Pedro Acosta	23% → 18%	−6	5% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:30.178	—	+0.210	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:30.418	+0.240	+0.356	Soft	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.447	+0.269	+0.221	Soft	11
Ai Ogura	1:30.491	+0.313	+0.300	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:30.606	+0.428	+0.105	Soft	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.612	+0.434	+0.512	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.014	+0.836	+0.275	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.151	+0.973	+0.320	Soft	8
Pedro Acosta	1:31.164	+0.986	+0.448	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:31.331	+1.153	+0.327	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.356	+1.178	+0.193	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:31.366	+1.188	+0.667	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:31.425	+1.247	+0.562	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:31.440	+1.262	+0.217	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:31.441	+1.263	+0.344	Soft	11
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.442	+1.264	+0.553	Soft	11
Fermin Aldeguer	1:31.477	+1.299	+0.884	Soft	11
Luca Marini	1:31.550	+1.372	+0.308	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.579	+1.401	+0.292	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:31.665	+1.487	+0.319	Soft	11
Somkiat Chantra	1:31.725	+1.547	+0.221	Medium	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.490	+2.312	+0.781	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,567 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.39%
S3	Raul Fernandez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Raul Fernandez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%
S4	Jack Miller +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.60%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%
S4	Jorge Martin	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.53%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.42%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.41%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.39%
S4	Valentino Rossi	Andrea Dovizioso +0.50%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

19/100

Position index

71%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 60% of the time (between 31% and 83%; 10 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.905 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jack Miller, from P15 to P5.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.354	—	+0.210	Wet-Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.444	+0.090	+0.320	Wet-Medium	24
Jack Miller	1:40.468	+0.114	+0.105	Wet-Medium	24
Pedro Acosta	1:40.492	+0.138	+0.448	Wet-Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:40.524	+0.170	+0.319	Wet-Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.546	+0.192	+0.221	Wet-Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:40.688	+0.334	+0.292	Wet-Medium	24
Jorge Martin	1:40.708	+0.354	+0.457	Wet-Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:40.714	+0.360	+0.327	Wet-Medium	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.980	+0.626	+0.359	Wet-Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	100%	+0.67%	−0.036	1	3	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.