Round 3 of 22 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2025

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

28.03 – 30.03.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	39:00.191	25
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.089	20
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.594	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.732	13
5	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+11.857	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.238	10
7	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+12.815	9
8	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+15.646	8
9	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+16.344	7
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.255	6
11	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.256	5
12	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+27.938	4
13	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+35.740	3
14	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+42.724	2
15	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+46.397	1
16	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+63.601	0
17	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+0.000	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:29.509	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.795	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.918	7
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.536	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.685	5
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+10.676	4
7	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.049	3
8	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+13.588	2
9	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+13.752	1
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+14.584	0
11	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+14.754	0
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.908	0
13	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+16.009	0
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+16.182	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.181	0
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+18.625	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+21.666	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+29.061	0
19	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+33.622	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+37.989	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.89 / 0.89	2.3 / 2.2
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29%	Francesco Bagnaia · 5% · from P6	0.78 / 0.78	2.8 / 2.7
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 36%	Francesco Bagnaia · 9% · from P6	0.83 / 0.78	2.4 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	2:02.947	—	+0.221	Medium	17
Marc Marquez	2:03.059	+0.112	+0.210	Medium	9
Alex Marquez	2:03.210	+0.263	+0.356	Medium	17
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:03.236	+0.289	+0.320	Medium	17
Marco Bezzecchi	2:03.414	+0.467	+0.553	Soft	17
Enea Bastianini	2:03.422	+0.475	+0.319	Medium	17
Franco Morbidelli	2:03.456	+0.509	+0.512	Medium	17
Jack Miller	2:03.577	+0.630	+0.105	Soft	17
Johann Zarco	2:03.599	+0.652	+0.344	Medium	15
Brad Binder	2:03.640	+0.693	+0.327	Medium	10
Luca Marini	2:03.643	+0.696	+0.308	Soft	17
Maverick Viñales	2:03.645	+0.698	+0.292	Medium	17
Ai Ogura	2:03.646	+0.699	+0.300	Soft	17
Fermin Aldeguer	2:03.779	+0.832	+0.884	Medium	14
Alex Rins	2:03.842	+0.895	+0.217	Soft	17
Raul Fernandez	2:03.948	+1.001	+0.667	Medium	17
Fabio Quartararo	2:03.957	+1.010	+0.275	Soft	17
Joan Mir	2:04.146	+1.199	+0.562	Medium	9
Pedro Acosta	2:04.156	+1.209	+0.448	Medium	6
Augusto Fernandez	2:04.550	+1.603	+0.437	Medium	17
Lorenzo Savadori	2:05.226	+2.279	+0.781	Soft	16
Somkiat Chantra	2:06.055	+3.108	+0.221	Soft	17

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

11/19

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.089 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Fermin Aldeguer vs Johann Zarco (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

10/10

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.795 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P11 to P6.

Longest battle: Ai Ogura vs Marco Bezzecchi (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:12:47	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:14:21	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:17:32	Maverick Viñales	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:20:02	Lorenzo Savadori	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T5
Sprint	15:24:09		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	13:39:33	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out on sighting lap
Race	14:16:37	Maverick Viñales	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:31:13	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:33:16	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:37:35	Pedro Acosta	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:38:30	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:40:01	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:41:47	Marc Marquez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:44:30	Brad Binder	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	14:50:50	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:51:03	Fermin Aldeguer	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	16	8	+8
Fabio Quartararo	11	7	+4
Johann Zarco	15	11	+4
Maverick Viñales	10	22	−12
Luca Marini	7	12	−5
Joan Mir	8	13	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	17→7	+6.1
Francesco Bagnaia	6→1	+5.0
Ai Ogura	18→9	+4.8
Luca Marini	7→8	−1.3
Johann Zarco	15→17	−5.2
Maverick Viñales	10→14	−5.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	64%	+0.55%	−0.035	1	3	8.1
Soft	36%	+0.65%	−0.069	0	0	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.9 °C

Air

max 23.7 °C

90%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 13 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	02:12.531	—	16	323.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:16.342	+1.31%	9	Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	02:12.614	+0.083	15	323.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:15.351	+0.57%	7	Wet-Soft
3	Marc Marquez	02:12.780	+0.249	12	326.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:14.582	—	5	Wet-Soft
4	Johann Zarco	02:12.838	+0.307	14	323.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:17.968	+2.52%	10	Wet-Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	02:13.275	+0.744	16	326.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:17.361	+2.07%	11	Wet-Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	02:13.290	+0.759	16	329.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:16.868	+1.70%	8	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Marquez	02:13.314	+0.783	13	324.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:18.124	+2.63%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	02:13.483	+0.952	16	327.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:17.636	+2.27%	12	Wet-Soft
9	Brad Binder	02:13.638	+1.107	15	329.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:17.508	+2.17%	6	Wet-Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	02:14.148	+1.617	15	321.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:18.742	+3.09%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Joan Mir	02:14.257	+1.726	16	319.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:17.791	+2.38%	12	Wet-Soft
12	Luca Marini	02:14.277	+1.746	17	320.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:18.699	+3.06%	13	Wet-Soft
13	Fermin Aldeguer	02:14.528	+1.997	15	319.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:19.531	+3.68%	7	Wet-Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	02:14.531	+2.000	15	325.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:18.998	+3.28%	7	Wet-Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	02:14.739	+2.208	14	325.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:21.503	+5.14%	7	Wet-Soft
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:14.922	+2.391	14	325.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	02:15.445	+2.914	13	322.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:17.286	+2.01%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Alex Rins	02:15.480	+2.949	14	320.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:22.505	+5.89%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Marco Bezzecchi	02:15.682	+3.151	9	325.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Somkiat Chantra	02:15.959	+3.428	15	324.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:18.266	+2.74%	6	Wet-Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	02:19.703	+7.172	15	319.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:36.436	+16.24%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Ai Ogura	02:21.433	+8.902	11	325.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Practice · 28.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:02.929	—	17	341.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:03.665	+0.736	21	336.9	Soft / Soft	2:12.651	+3.36%	8	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.766	+0.837	21	338.0	Medium / Soft	2:13.500	+4.02%	10	Soft
4	Alex Marquez	02:03.811	+0.882	19	335.9	Soft / Soft	2:11.381	+2.37%	9	Soft
5	Fermin Aldeguer	02:03.902	+0.973	17	334.8	Soft / Soft	2:08.693	+0.27%	5	Medium
6	Jack Miller	02:03.953	+1.024	20	334.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Pedro Acosta	02:04.099	+1.170	19	338.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	02:04.261	+1.332	19	335.9	Soft / Soft	2:08.343	—	5	Soft
9	Joan Mir	02:04.342	+1.413	17	334.8	Soft / Soft	2:08.359	+0.01%	5	Soft
10	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.459	+1.530	17	339.1	Soft / Soft	2:10.056	+1.34%	6	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.579	+1.650	17	331.6	Soft / Soft	2:09.483	+0.89%	8	Soft
12	Brad Binder	02:04.761	+1.832	19	339.1	Soft / Soft	2:10.037	+1.32%	5	Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.770	+1.841	21	335.9	Soft / Soft	2:15.113	+5.28%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Ai Ogura	02:04.931	+2.002	20	338.0	Soft / Soft	2:18.731	+8.09%	11	Soft
15	Luca Marini	02:04.964	+2.035	17	331.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Raul Fernandez	02:05.113	+2.184	20	333.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	02:05.287	+2.358	16	334.8	Soft / Soft	2:12.421	+3.18%	7	Soft
18	Enea Bastianini	02:05.335	+2.406	19	338.0	Soft / Soft	2:16.821	+6.61%	5	Soft
19	Augusto Fernandez	02:05.927	+2.998	18	332.7	Soft / Soft	2:10.113	+1.38%	6	Soft
20	Johann Zarco	02:05.981	+3.052	15	332.7	Soft / Soft	2:09.209	+0.68%	6	Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	02:06.493	+3.564	18	334.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:06.922	+3.993	18	335.9	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 29.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:02.113	—	12	339.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	02:02.553	+0.440	11	336.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	02:02.656	+0.543	11	339.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Joan Mir	02:02.690	+0.577	11	328.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.860	+0.747	12	340.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Luca Marini	02:02.888	+0.775	11	330.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.945	+0.832	11	325.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:02.965	+0.852	12	333.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:02.988	+0.875	13	332.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Pedro Acosta	02:03.147	+1.034	12	335.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Marco Bezzecchi	02:03.200	+1.087	12	336.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Fermin Aldeguer	02:03.208	+1.095	11	332.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Jack Miller	02:03.446	+1.333	11	334.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	02:03.463	+1.350	12	328.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Raul Fernandez	02:03.562	+1.449	11	330.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	02:03.650	+1.537	12	335.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Ai Ogura	02:03.679	+1.566	10	332.7	Soft / Soft	2:04.839	—	6	Soft
18	Brad Binder	02:03.713	+1.600	12	341.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Alex Rins	02:04.153	+2.040	9	334.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	02:04.989	+2.876	11	328.5	Medium / Soft	2:06.244	+1.13%	5	Soft
21	Somkiat Chantra	02:05.392	+3.279	11	326.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:05.917	+3.804	11	328.5	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 29.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Luca Marini	02:02.001	—	8	326.5	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.113	+0.112	7	325.5	Medium / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.195	+0.194	8	334.8	Medium / Soft
4	Alex Rins	02:02.500	+0.499	7	331.6	Medium / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	02:02.636	+0.635	7	330.6	Medium / Soft
6	Brad Binder	02:02.637	+0.636	7	336.9	Medium / Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	02:02.868	+0.867	8	333.7	Medium / Soft
8	Ai Ogura	02:02.909	+0.908	7	332.7	Medium / Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	02:02.957	+0.956	5	329.6	Medium / Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	02:03.805	+1.804	7	328.5	Medium / Soft
11	Somkiat Chantra	02:03.909	+1.908	7	328.5	Medium / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	02:04.254	+2.253	7	331.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 29.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	02:01.088	—	7	334.8	Medium / Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:01.189	+0.101	7	338.0	Medium / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	02:01.448	+0.360	7	334.8	Medium / Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	02:01.504	+0.416	7	339.1	Medium / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.529	+0.441	7	333.7	Medium / Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.611	+0.523	6	335.9	Medium / Soft
7	Luca Marini	02:01.737	+0.649	7	334.8	Medium / Soft
8	Joan Mir	02:02.008	+0.920	5	332.7	Medium / Soft
9	Jack Miller	02:02.008	+0.920	7	329.6	Medium / Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	02:02.019	+0.931	7	334.8	Medium / Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.032	+0.944	6	327.5	Medium / Soft
12	Fermin Aldeguer	02:02.419	+1.331	7	331.6	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 29.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	20:29.509	12	10	Medium / Soft	2:02.637	—	8	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+0.795	9	10	Medium / Soft	2:02.748	+0.09%	8	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.918	7	10	Medium / Soft	2:02.888	+0.21%	8	Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+8.536	6	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.521	+0.72%	8	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+9.685	5	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.576	+0.77%	8	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	+10.676	4	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.748	+0.91%	8	Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	+12.049	3	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.781	+0.93%	8	Soft
8	Luca Marini	+13.588	2	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.880	+1.01%	8	Soft
9	Ai Ogura	+13.752	1	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.868	+1.00%	8	Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+14.584	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.893	+1.02%	8	Soft
11	Fermin Aldeguer	+14.754	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.921	+1.05%	8	Soft
12	Brad Binder	+14.908	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.860	+1.00%	8	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	+16.009	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:04.032	+1.14%	8	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+16.182	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.910	+1.04%	8	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+18.181	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:04.617	+1.62%	8	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	+18.625	0	10	Medium / Medium	2:04.506	+1.52%	8	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	+21.666	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:04.204	+1.28%	8	Soft
18	Augusto Fernandez	+29.061	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:05.388	+2.24%	8	Soft
19	Somkiat Chantra	+33.622	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:05.754	+2.54%	8	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+37.989	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:05.606	+2.42%	8	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	5	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	7	Medium / Soft	2:04.635	+1.63%	5	Soft

Warm Up · 30.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	02:01.873	—	5	339.1	Medium / Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.302	+0.429	5	336.9	Medium / Medium
3	Johann Zarco	02:02.568	+0.695	5	334.8	Medium / Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.606	+0.733	5	329.6	Medium / Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:02.659	+0.786	5	343.5	Medium / Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	02:02.742	+0.869	5	336.9	Medium / Medium
7	Alex Marquez	02:02.746	+0.873	5	334.8	Medium / Medium
8	Jack Miller	02:02.826	+0.953	5	330.6	Medium / Medium
9	Pedro Acosta	02:02.837	+0.964	5	342.4	Medium / Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.056	+1.183	5	339.1	Medium / Medium
11	Brad Binder	02:03.219	+1.346	5	345.8	Medium / Medium
12	Luca Marini	02:03.266	+1.393	5	340.2	Medium / Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	02:03.292	+1.419	5	336.9	Medium / Medium
14	Alex Rins	02:03.379	+1.506	5	338.0	Medium / Medium
15	Marco Bezzecchi	02:03.407	+1.534	5	342.4	Medium / Medium
16	Joan Mir	02:03.418	+1.545	5	332.7	Medium / Medium
17	Fermin Aldeguer	02:03.437	+1.564	5	333.7	Medium / Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	02:03.477	+1.604	5	330.6	Medium / Medium
19	Ai Ogura	02:03.730	+1.857	5	336.9	Medium / Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	02:04.783	+2.910	5	331.6	Medium / Medium
21	Somkiat Chantra	02:05.368	+3.495	5	333.7	Medium / Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:06.163	+4.290	5	330.6	Medium / Medium

Race · 30.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	39:00.191	25	19	Medium / Medium	2:02.947	—	17	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+2.089	20	19	Medium / Medium	2:03.210	+0.21%	17	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+3.594	16	19	Medium / Medium	2:03.236	+0.24%	17	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+10.732	13	19	Medium / Medium	2:03.456	+0.41%	17	Medium
5	Jack Miller	+11.857	11	19	Medium / Soft	2:03.577	+0.51%	17	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+12.238	10	19	Medium / Soft	2:03.414	+0.38%	17	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	+12.815	9	19	Medium / Medium	2:03.422	+0.39%	17	Medium
8	Luca Marini	+15.646	8	19	Soft / Soft	2:03.643	+0.57%	17	Soft
9	Ai Ogura	+16.344	7	19	Medium / Soft	2:03.646	+0.57%	17	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	+18.255	6	19	Medium / Soft	2:03.957	+0.82%	17	Soft
11	Alex Rins	+24.256	5	19	Medium / Soft	2:03.842	+0.73%	17	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	+27.938	4	19	Medium / Medium	2:03.948	+0.81%	17	Medium
13	Augusto Fernandez	+35.740	3	19	Medium / Medium	2:04.550	+1.30%	17	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	+42.724	2	19	Medium / Medium	2:03.645	+0.57%	17	Medium
15	Lorenzo Savadori	+46.397	1	19	Soft / Soft	2:05.226	+1.85%	16	Soft
16	Somkiat Chantra	+63.601	0	19	Soft / Soft	2:06.055	+2.53%	17	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	+0.000	0	17	Soft / Medium	2:03.599	+0.53%	15	Medium
Retired	Brad Binder		0	12	Medium / Medium	2:03.640	+0.56%	10	Medium
Retired	Fermin Aldeguer		0	16	Medium / Medium	2:03.779	+0.68%	14	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	11	Medium / Medium	2:04.146	+0.98%	9	Medium
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	12	Medium / Medium	2:03.059	+0.09%	9	Medium
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	10	Medium / Medium	2:04.156	+0.98%	6	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:02.113*	—	+0.210	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	2:02.863*	+0.750	+0.275	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	2:03.144	+1.031	+0.512	Medium	5
Luca Marini	2:03.266	+1.153	+0.308	Medium	5
Pedro Acosta	2:03.285	+1.172	+0.448	Medium	5
Johann Zarco	2:03.507*	+1.394	+0.344	Medium	4
Alex Rins	2:03.763*	+1.650	+0.217	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	2:03.786*	+1.673	+0.319	Medium	4
Brad Binder	2:03.872	+1.759	+0.327	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	56%	2 ✓
2	Luca Marini	42%	1 ✓
3	Marco Bezzecchi	30%	3
4	Brad Binder	20%	6
5	Ai Ogura	19%	8
6	Raul Fernandez	11%	9
7	Johann Zarco	7%	5
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	7
9	Alex Rins	3%	4
10	Augusto Fernandez	3%	10
11	Somkiat Chantra	4%	11
12	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	36%	65%	87%	1
2	Alex Marquez	22%	52%	81%	3
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	14%	46%	76%	2
4	Maverick Viñales	5%	33%	67%	10
5	Franco Morbidelli	4%	25%	52%	5
6	Joan Mir	6%	22%	56%	8
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	13%	41%	6
8	Fermin Aldeguer	2%	15%	38%	12
9	Pedro Acosta	3%	9%	30%	4
10	Luca Marini	2%	9%	26%	7
11	Jack Miller	2%	9%	29%	9
12	Fabio Quartararo	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	63%	78%	88%	11%	1
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2	18%	50%	66%	79%	18%	4
Alex Marquez	3	14%	45%	66%	83%	13%	2
Pedro Acosta	4	10%	36%	58%	79%	17%	7
Franco Morbidelli	5	8%	31%	57%	88%	6%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	6	5%	21%	44%	79%	12%	3
Luca Marini	7	4%	17%	36%	77%	13%	8
Joan Mir	8	2%	10%	25%	63%	23%	—
Jack Miller	9	2%	8%	20%	71%	8%	14
Maverick Viñales	10	2%	6%	15%	63%	8%	—
Fabio Quartararo	11	1%	5%	11%	56%	8%	6
Fermin Aldeguer	12	1%	3%	7%	45%	10%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	2%	5%	34%	17%	10
Alex Rins	14	0%	2%	4%	28%	15%	15
Johann Zarco	15	0%	1%	3%	20%	19%	16
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	14%	12
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	9%	13
Ai Ogura	18	0%	1%	1%	7%	10%	9
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	4%	17
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	15%	18
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	10%	19
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	36%	67%	78%	82%	16%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2	19%	53%	73%	83%	16%	3
Alex Marquez	3	20%	53%	69%	76%	23%	2
Pedro Acosta	4	7%	32%	57%	77%	19%	—
Franco Morbidelli	5	8%	34%	60%	80%	16%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	6	9%	35%	60%	75%	23%	1
Luca Marini	7	0%	7%	23%	76%	9%	8
Joan Mir	8	1%	9%	24%	58%	33%	—
Jack Miller	9	0%	1%	8%	50%	24%	5
Maverick Viñales	10	0%	0%	2%	33%	13%	14
Fabio Quartararo	11	0%	3%	16%	66%	12%	10
Fermin Aldeguer	12	0%	5%	18%	67%	14%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	1%	4%	41%	16%	6
Alex Rins	14	0%	0%	0%	13%	22%	11
Johann Zarco	15	0%	0%	1%	21%	17%	17
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	4%	37%	12%	—
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	17%	16%	7
Ai Ogura	18	0%	1%	5%	38%	27%	9
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	6%	22%	12
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	13
Somkiat Chantra	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	28%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Francesco Bagnaia	22% → 35%	+13	5% → 9%
Alex Marquez	41% → 53%	+12	14% → 20%
Marc Marquez	59% → 67%	+8	29% → 36%
Dropping
Luca Marini	20% → 7%	−14	4% → 0%
Jack Miller	8% → 1%	−7	2% → 0%
Maverick Viñales	6% → 0%	−6	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:02.637	—	+0.210	Soft	8
Alex Marquez	2:02.748	+0.111	+0.356	Soft	8
Francesco Bagnaia	2:02.888	+0.251	+0.221	Soft	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:03.521	+0.884	+0.320	Soft	8
Franco Morbidelli	2:03.576	+0.939	+0.512	Soft	8
Fabio Quartararo	2:03.748	+1.111	+0.275	Soft	8
Pedro Acosta	2:03.781	+1.144	+0.448	Soft	8
Brad Binder	2:03.860	+1.223	+0.327	Soft	8
Ai Ogura	2:03.868	+1.231	+0.300	Soft	8
Luca Marini	2:03.880	+1.243	+0.308	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	2:03.893	+1.256	+0.553	Soft	8
Jack Miller	2:03.910	+1.273	+0.105	Soft	8
Fermin Aldeguer	2:03.921	+1.284	+0.884	Soft	8
Enea Bastianini	2:04.032	+1.395	+0.319	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	2:04.204	+1.567	+0.667	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	2:04.506	+1.869	+0.344	Medium	8
Alex Rins	2:04.617	+1.980	+0.217	Soft	8
Maverick Viñales	2:04.635	+1.998	+0.292	Soft	5
Augusto Fernandez	2:05.388	+2.751	+0.437	Soft	8
Lorenzo Savadori	2:05.606	+2.969	+0.781	Soft	8
Somkiat Chantra	2:05.754	+3.117	+0.221	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	74	—
2	Alex Marquez	58	−16
3	Francesco Bagnaia	43	−31
4	Franco Morbidelli	37	−37
5	Johann Zarco	25	−49
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	22	−52

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

8/20

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

1.728 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Raul Fernandez (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:03.294	—	+0.292	Medium	18
Pedro Acosta	2:03.464	+0.170	+0.448	Medium	16
Jorge Martin	2:03.532	+0.238	+0.457	Soft	15
Marc Marquez	2:03.534	+0.240	+0.210	Soft	8
Enea Bastianini	2:03.621	+0.327	+0.319	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.759	+0.465	+0.221	Soft	15
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:03.762	+0.468	+0.320	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:03.775	+0.481	+0.512	Soft	5
Miguel Oliveira	2:03.806	+0.512	+0.193	Medium	18
Marco Bezzecchi	2:03.821	+0.527	+0.553	Soft	17

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	64%	+0.44%	+0.002	0	1	8.7
Medium	36%	+0.70%	−0.014	1	2	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.