Round 4 of 22 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2025

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

11.04 – 13.04.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:29.186	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.535	20
3	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+6.495	16
4	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+6.668	13
5	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.484	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.764	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+12.895	9
8	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.219	8
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+14.368	7
10	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+15.137	6
11	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+17.459	5
12	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.563	4
13	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+17.632	3
14	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+17.800	2
15	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+18.758	1
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+26.340	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+26.925	0
18	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+38.186	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:38.304	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.577	9
3	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.988	7
4	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+4.369	6
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+4.593	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.099	4
7	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+10.199	3
8	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+10.334	2
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.300	1
10	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+12.554	0
11	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.676	0
12	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.273	0
13	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+14.408	0
14	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.459	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+15.587	0
16	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+15.775	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+16.317	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+17.922	0
19	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+20.274	0
20	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+31.106	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 29% ✓	Marc Marquez · 29% · from P1	0.90 / 0.90	2.4 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 27% ✓	Marc Marquez · 27% · from P1	0.54 / 0.54	3.7 / 3.7
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 36% ✓	Marc Marquez · 36% · from P1	0.62 / 0.54	3.2 / 3.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:52.900	—	+0.210	Medium	20
Maverick Viñales	1:52.972	+0.072	+0.292	Medium	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:53.034	+0.134	+0.221	Medium	20
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.165	+0.265	+0.320	Medium	19
Alex Marquez	1:53.168	+0.268	+0.356	Medium	20
Johann Zarco	1:53.238	+0.338	+0.344	Medium	20
Fermin Aldeguer	1:53.246	+0.346	+0.884	Medium	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:53.277	+0.377	+0.512	Medium	20
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.435	+0.535	+0.275	Medium	20
Pedro Acosta	1:53.492	+0.592	+0.448	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:53.616	+0.716	+0.553	Medium	20
Enea Bastianini	1:53.634	+0.734	+0.319	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:53.648	+0.748	+0.308	Medium	20
Brad Binder	1:53.664	+0.764	+0.327	Medium	20
Ai Ogura	1:53.688	+0.788	+0.300	Medium	20
Alex Rins	1:53.734	+0.834	+0.217	Medium	20
Jorge Martin	1:53.803	+0.903	+0.457	Medium	11
Joan Mir	1:53.899	+0.999	+0.562	Medium	10
Jack Miller	1:53.932	+1.032	+0.105	Medium	7
Augusto Fernandez	1:53.962	+1.062	+0.437	Medium	11
Raul Fernandez	1:54.119	+1.219	+0.667	Medium	20
Somkiat Chantra	1:54.597	+1.697	+0.221	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

102

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

7/22

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.800 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P12.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Maverick Viñales (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

11/11

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.577 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P20 to P13.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Franco Morbidelli (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	20:18:06	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	20:09:54	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race	20:13:05	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	20:18:22	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	20:20:37	Jack Miller	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	20:20:38	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Race	20:21:02	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Position penalty	To drop 1 position - COMPLETED
Race	20:25:43	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	20:28:09	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	20:28:57	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for rider #12 due to Technical regulations infringement.

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Franco Morbidelli (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Francesco Bagnaia	11	7	+4
Brad Binder	18	15	+3
Franco Morbidelli	4	1	+3
Jorge Martin	14	18	−4
Fabio Quartararo	3	6	−3
Augusto Fernandez	19	21	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	11→2	+7.3
Enea Bastianini	20→11	+4.0
Johann Zarco	7→4	+2.7
Ai Ogura	10→15	−6.4
Maverick Viñales	6→14	−8.0
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5→16	−10.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.64%	−0.001	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.1 °C

Air

max 26.9 °C

50%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 11.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:52.288	—	17	346.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.801	+0.513	14	348.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:52.871	+0.583	17	343.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Alex Marquez	01:52.945	+0.657	17	341.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:53.162	+0.874	17	340.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.193	+0.905	18	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Fermin Aldeguer	01:53.198	+0.910	16	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:53.223	+0.935	16	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.225	+0.937	18	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Pedro Acosta	01:53.297	+1.009	17	343.9	Medium / Medium	1:54.044	+0.22%	9	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.322	+1.034	17	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:53.836	+0.04%	11	Medium
12	Luca Marini	01:53.361	+1.073	18	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:53.795	—	5	Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:53.430	+1.142	17	342.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:53.477	+1.189	14	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:54.206	+0.36%	5	Medium
15	Ai Ogura	01:53.507	+1.219	18	341.7	Medium / Medium	1:54.606	+0.71%	12	Medium
16	Augusto Fernandez	01:53.517	+1.229	18	337.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Brad Binder	01:53.651	+1.363	19	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:54.679	+0.78%	14	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	01:53.726	+1.438	17	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:54.535	+0.65%	12	Medium
19	Jack Miller	01:54.107	+1.819	13	340.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Jorge Martin	01:54.112	+1.824	14	343.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:54.114	+1.826	17	337.5	Medium / Medium	1:54.968	+1.03%	6	Medium
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:54.364	+2.076	16	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

Practice · 11.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:50.830	—	20	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:53.211	+0.55%	5	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.975	+0.145	21	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:50.997	+0.167	23	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:52.806	+0.19%	12	Medium
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:51.129	+0.299	22	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:53.083	+0.43%	5	Medium
5	Alex Marquez	01:51.236	+0.406	21	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:52.595	—	6	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:51.293	+0.463	21	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:52.756	+0.14%	5	Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:51.391	+0.561	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:53.136	+0.48%	5	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:51.455	+0.625	22	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:53.721	+1.00%	6	Medium
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:51.615	+0.785	20	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:53.533	+0.83%	7	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:51.636	+0.806	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:51.666	+0.836	22	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:53.989	+1.24%	7	Medium
12	Luca Marini	01:51.775	+0.945	22	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:51.784	+0.954	19	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:51.833	+1.003	21	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:53.378	+0.70%	9	Soft
15	Ai Ogura	01:51.948	+1.118	21	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:52.005	+1.175	18	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:52.024	+1.194	17	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:52.134	+1.304	20	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Marco Bezzecchi	01:52.180	+1.350	23	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:53.374	+0.69%	9	Medium
20	Jorge Martin	01:52.398	+1.568	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:52.415	+1.585	17	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:54.206	+1.43%	5	Soft
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:53.010	+2.180	18	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.234	+2.34%	5	Soft

FP2 · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:51.877	—	12	351.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Alex Marquez	01:52.109	+0.232	9	348.3	Medium / Medium	1:52.333	—	5	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:52.356	+0.479	13	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:53.222	+0.79%	7	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:52.393	+0.516	12	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:53.312	+0.87%	5	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:52.432	+0.555	13	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:53.506	+1.04%	5	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:52.504	+0.627	12	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Fermin Aldeguer	01:52.513	+0.636	10	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:52.634	+0.757	13	352.9	Medium / Medium	1:53.363	+0.92%	5	Medium
9	Ai Ogura	01:52.693	+0.816	12	351.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Alex Rins	01:52.730	+0.853	11	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:52.759	+0.882	11	352.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:52.781	+0.904	12	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:53.783	+1.29%	5	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:52.830	+0.953	12	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:52.898	+1.021	13	355.2	Medium / Soft	1:53.542	+1.08%	5	Soft
15	Luca Marini	01:52.987	+1.110	11	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Jorge Martin	01:53.071	+1.194	9	349.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:53.087	+1.210	11	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:53.186	+1.309	10	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Enea Bastianini	01:53.404	+1.527	12	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:53.425	+1.548	10	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:53.516	+1.639	12	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:53.707	+1.22%	5	Medium
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:54.334	+2.457	12	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Ai Ogura	01:51.104	—	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:51.512	+0.408	6	343.9	Medium / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.553	+0.449	7	355.2	Medium / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:51.655	+0.551	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:51.728	+0.624	7	348.3	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:51.735	+0.631	7	348.3	Medium / Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:51.822	+0.718	7	348.3	Medium / Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:51.947	+0.843	6	354.0	Medium / Soft
9	Augusto Fernandez	01:51.975	+0.871	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:52.178	+1.074	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:52.205	+1.101	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
12	Somkiat Chantra	01:53.244	+2.140	7	345.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:50.499	—	7	355.2	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:50.600	+0.101	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:50.759	+0.260	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:50.810	+0.311	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:50.929	+0.430	7	356.4	Medium / Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:51.059	+0.560	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:51.113	+0.614	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
8	Fermin Aldeguer	01:51.121	+0.622	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:51.174	+0.675	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
10	Ai Ogura	01:51.340	+0.841	7	348.3	Medium / Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.580	+1.081	4	354.0	Medium / Soft
12	Pedro Acosta	01:51.680	+1.181	7	356.4	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	20:38.304	12	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.239	—	9	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	+1.577	9	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.488	+0.22%	9	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	+3.988	7	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.681	+0.39%	9	Medium
4	Fermin Aldeguer	+4.369	6	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.589	+0.31%	9	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	+4.593	5	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.821	+0.52%	9	Medium
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+5.099	4	11	Medium / Medium	1:52.834	+0.53%	9	Medium
7	Ai Ogura	+10.199	3	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.202	+0.86%	9	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	+10.334	2	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.181	+0.84%	9	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+11.300	1	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.222	+0.88%	9	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	+12.554	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:53.450	+1.08%	9	Soft
11	Pedro Acosta	+13.676	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:53.572	+1.19%	9	Soft
12	Alex Rins	+14.273	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:53.501	+1.12%	9	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	+14.408	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.453	+1.08%	9	Medium
14	Brad Binder	+15.459	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:53.631	+1.24%	9	Soft
15	Luca Marini	+15.587	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:53.517	+1.14%	9	Soft
16	Jorge Martin	+15.775	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.672	+1.28%	8	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	+16.317	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.504	+1.13%	9	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	+17.922	0	11	Medium / Medium	1:53.916	+1.49%	9	Medium
19	Jack Miller	+20.274	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:54.304	+1.84%	9	Soft
20	Somkiat Chantra	+31.106	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:54.871	+2.35%	9	Soft
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:53.142	+0.81%	6	Soft

Warm Up · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:52.644	—	6	343.9	Medium / Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:53.182	+0.538	6	343.9	Medium / Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:53.253	+0.609	6	345.0	Medium / Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:53.284	+0.640	6	347.2	Medium / Medium
5	Ai Ogura	01:53.302	+0.658	6	340.6	Medium / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.313	+0.669	6	347.2	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:53.314	+0.670	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:53.315	+0.671	6	341.7	Medium / Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:53.357	+0.713	5	338.5	Medium / Medium
10	Fermin Aldeguer	01:53.401	+0.757	5	337.5	Medium / Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:53.491	+0.847	6	347.2	Medium / Medium
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:53.510	+0.866	6	345.0	Medium / Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:53.601	+0.957	6	342.8	Medium / Medium
14	Enea Bastianini	01:53.656	+1.012	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:53.679	+1.035	6	340.6	Medium / Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.758	+1.114	5	334.3	Medium / Medium
17	Brad Binder	01:53.827	+1.183	6	347.2	Medium / Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.901	+1.257	5	337.5	Medium / Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	01:53.933	+1.289	5	335.4	Medium / Medium
20	Jack Miller	01:54.009	+1.365	6	343.9	Medium / Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:54.051	+1.407	5	333.3	Medium / Medium
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:55.043	+2.399	6	342.8	Medium / Medium

Race · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:29.186	25	22	Medium / Medium	1:52.900	—	20	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+4.535	20	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.034	+0.12%	20	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	+6.495	16	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.277	+0.33%	20	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	+6.668	13	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.238	+0.30%	20	Medium
5	Fermin Aldeguer	+7.484	11	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.246	+0.31%	20	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+9.764	10	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.168	+0.24%	20	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+12.895	9	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.435	+0.47%	20	Medium
8	Pedro Acosta	+14.219	8	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.492	+0.52%	20	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+14.368	7	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.616	+0.63%	20	Medium
10	Luca Marini	+15.137	6	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.648	+0.66%	20	Medium
11	Enea Bastianini	+17.459	5	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.634	+0.65%	20	Medium
12	Alex Rins	+17.563	4	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.734	+0.74%	20	Medium
13	Brad Binder	+17.632	3	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.664	+0.68%	20	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	+17.800	2	22	Medium / Medium	1:52.972	+0.06%	20	Medium
15	Ai Ogura	+18.758	1	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.688	+0.70%	20	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+26.340	0	22	Medium / Medium	1:53.165	+0.24%	19	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	+26.925	0	22	Medium / Medium	1:54.119	+1.08%	20	Medium
18	Somkiat Chantra	+38.186	0	22	Medium / Medium	1:54.597	+1.50%	20	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	13	Medium / Medium	1:53.962	+0.94%	11	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:53.932	+0.91%	7	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	12	Medium / Medium	1:53.899	+0.89%	10	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	13	Medium / Medium	1:53.803	+0.80%	11	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:52.166*	—	+0.221	Medium	4
Marc Marquez	1:52.279	+0.113	+0.210	Medium	8
Joan Mir	1:52.560*	+0.394	+0.562	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:53.004	+0.838	+0.344	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:53.108*	+0.942	+0.512	Medium	4
Fabio Quartararo	1:53.164	+0.998	+0.275	Medium	6
Maverick Viñales	1:53.230*	+1.064	+0.292	Medium	3
Ai Ogura	1:53.302	+1.136	+0.300	Medium	7
Jorge Martin	1:53.358*	+1.192	+0.457	Medium	4
Alex Marquez	1:53.368*	+1.202	+0.356	Medium	3
Marco Bezzecchi	1:53.408	+1.242	+0.553	Medium	14
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.477	+1.311	+0.320	Medium	5
Luca Marini	1:53.491	+1.325	+0.308	Medium	7
Alex Rins	1:53.646*	+1.480	+0.217	Medium	3
Pedro Acosta	1:53.702*	+1.536	+0.448	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	1:53.756	+1.590	+0.319	Medium	6
Augusto Fernandez	1:53.988	+1.822	+0.437	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	1:54.098	+1.932	+0.667	Medium	5
Jack Miller	1:54.111*	+1.945	+0.105	Medium	4
Brad Binder	1:54.126*	+1.960	+0.327	Medium	4
Somkiat Chantra	1:55.360*	+3.194	+0.221	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	56%	2 ✓
2	Ai Ogura	42%	1 ✓
3	Luca Marini	30%	5
4	Brad Binder	20%	8
5	Marco Bezzecchi	19%	3
6	Joan Mir	11%	11
7	Enea Bastianini	7%	10
8	Jorge Martin	4%	4
9	Raul Fernandez	3%	7
10	Jack Miller	3%	6
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	9
12	Somkiat Chantra	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	65%	87%	1
2	Alex Marquez	22%	53%	81%	2
3	Fabio Quartararo	14%	47%	76%	3
4	Franco Morbidelli	5%	32%	66%	4
5	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	24%	53%	11
6	Pedro Acosta	6%	22%	55%	12
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	13%	41%	6
8	Johann Zarco	2%	15%	38%	7
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	9%	31%	5
10	Fermin Aldeguer	2%	9%	25%	8
11	Alex Rins	2%	9%	29%	9
12	Ai Ogura	1%	4%	19%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Joan Mir	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	62%	77%	87%	11%	1
Alex Marquez	2	21%	53%	71%	84%	13%	2
Fabio Quartararo	3	16%	48%	70%	90%	8%	5
Franco Morbidelli	4	12%	39%	63%	90%	6%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	7%	27%	49%	78%	17%	6
Maverick Viñales	6	5%	22%	44%	81%	10%	10
Johann Zarco	7	3%	15%	32%	72%	18%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	8	3%	12%	29%	75%	9%	4
Alex Rins	9	2%	7%	19%	65%	14%	12
Ai Ogura	10	2%	5%	14%	61%	9%	7
Francesco Bagnaia	11	1%	4%	10%	53%	12%	8
Pedro Acosta	12	0%	2%	6%	40%	16%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	13	1%	2%	5%	32%	16%	9
Jorge Martin	14	0%	2%	4%	29%	4%	16
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	12%	15
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	8%	19
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	4%	17
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	14%	14
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	18
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	9%	13
Joan Mir	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	25%	—
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	9%	20

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	36%	67%	78%	83%	17%	1
Alex Marquez	2	23%	54%	69%	76%	23%	6
Fabio Quartararo	3	11%	40%	67%	86%	12%	7
Franco Morbidelli	4	13%	43%	66%	81%	16%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	8%	34%	59%	82%	15%	16
Maverick Viñales	6	0%	3%	11%	61%	13%	14
Johann Zarco	7	3%	18%	40%	77%	17%	4
Fermin Aldeguer	8	6%	25%	48%	73%	24%	5
Alex Rins	9	0%	2%	10%	55%	21%	12
Ai Ogura	10	1%	6%	20%	64%	24%	15
Francesco Bagnaia	11	0%	4%	14%	58%	23%	2
Pedro Acosta	12	0%	0%	2%	34%	22%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	2%	10%	55%	16%	9
Jorge Martin	14	0%	0%	1%	19%	20%	—
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	3%	41%	9%	10
Jack Miller	16	0%	0%	0%	7%	24%	—
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	18%	21%	17
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	13%	13
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	26%	—
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	1%	18%	16%	11
Joan Mir	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	34%	—
Somkiat Chantra	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fermin Aldeguer	12% → 25%	+13	3% → 6%
Marc Marquez	55% → 67%	+12	27% → 36%
Alex Marquez	47% → 54%	+7	18% → 23%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	25% → 3%	−23	6% → 0%
Fabio Quartararo	46% → 40%	−6	16% → 11%
Alex Rins	8% → 2%	−5	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:52.239	—	+0.210	Medium	9
Alex Marquez	1:52.488	+0.249	+0.356	Medium	9
Fermin Aldeguer	1:52.589	+0.350	+0.884	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:52.681	+0.442	+0.512	Medium	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:52.821	+0.582	+0.275	Medium	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:52.834	+0.595	+0.320	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	1:53.142	+0.903	+0.344	Soft	6
Francesco Bagnaia	1:53.181	+0.942	+0.221	Medium	9
Ai Ogura	1:53.202	+0.963	+0.300	Medium	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:53.222	+0.983	+0.553	Medium	9
Maverick Viñales	1:53.450	+1.211	+0.292	Soft	9
Enea Bastianini	1:53.453	+1.214	+0.319	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:53.501	+1.262	+0.217	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:53.504	+1.265	+0.667	Medium	9
Luca Marini	1:53.517	+1.278	+0.308	Soft	9
Pedro Acosta	1:53.572	+1.333	+0.448	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:53.631	+1.392	+0.327	Soft	9
Jorge Martin	1:53.672	+1.433	+0.457	Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:53.916	+1.677	+0.437	Medium	9
Jack Miller	1:54.304	+2.065	+0.105	Soft	9
Somkiat Chantra	1:54.871	+2.632	+0.221	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Alex Marquez	87	—
2	Marc Marquez	86	−1
3	Francesco Bagnaia	75	−12
4	Franco Morbidelli	55	−32
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	44	−43
6	Johann Zarco	25	−62

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

21/21

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.329 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P16 to P11.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:52.996	—	+0.221	Medium	19
Brad Binder	1:53.032	+0.036	+0.327	Medium	19
Jorge Martin	1:53.068	+0.072	+0.457	Medium	19
Marc Marquez	1:53.102	+0.106	+0.210	Medium	19
Pedro Acosta	1:53.140	+0.144	+0.448	Medium	19
Alex Marquez	1:53.211	+0.215	+0.356	Medium	19
Enea Bastianini	1:53.266	+0.270	+0.319	Medium	19
Maverick Viñales	1:53.284	+0.288	+0.292	Medium	19
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:53.296	+0.300	+0.320	Medium	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:53.328	+0.332	+0.209	Medium	19

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.62%	+0.015	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.