MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
ca es
Round 4 of 20 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2024

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984
26.04 – 28.04.2024
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team40:58.05325
2Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+0.37220
3Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+3.90316
4Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+7.20513
5Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+7.25311
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+7.80110
7Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+10.0639
8Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+10.9798
9Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+11.2177
10Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+20.7626
11Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+23.5085
12Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+23.5844
13Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+28.4523
14Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+29.0492
15Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+32.0151
16Stefan BradlHondaHRC Test Team+41.4330
17Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+43.3230
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3Retired0
DNFDaniel PedrosaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFFranco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFJack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCRRetired0
DNFJorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFLorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing19:52.68212
2Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+2.9709
3Daniel PedrosaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+7.1027
4Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+8.4816
5Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+15.0525
6Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+18.1314
7Augusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+18.2783
8Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+18.4182
9Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+18.5531
10Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+21.1360
11Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+21.9480
12Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+23.8820
13Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+31.4780
14Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+45.9010
15Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+70.2880
16Lorenzo SavadoriApriliaAprilia Racing+82.9790
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingOut on lap 10
DNFAlex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFBrad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFEnea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFLuca MariniHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFMarco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFMaverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFStefan BradlHondaHRC Test TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarc Marquez · 30%Jorge Martin · 15% · from P30.44 / 0.445.9 / 5.8
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 28%Francesco Bagnaia · 4% · from P70.87 / 0.872.3 / 2.2
Race (after the sprint)Jorge Martin · 24%Francesco Bagnaia · 3% · from P70.86 / 0.872.5 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:38.005—+0.221Medium21
Jorge Martin1:38.060+0.055+0.457Medium8
Marc Marquez1:38.089+0.084+0.210Medium22
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.170+0.165+0.553Medium23
Enea Bastianini1:38.314+0.309+0.319Medium21
Brad Binder1:38.315+0.310+0.327Medium22
Alex Marquez1:38.325+0.320+0.356Medium22
Maverick Viñales1:38.372+0.367+0.292Medium23
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:38.398+0.393+0.320Medium23
Miguel Oliveira1:38.451+0.446+0.193Medium23
Pedro Acosta1:38.714+0.709+0.448Medium23
Franco Morbidelli1:38.725+0.720+0.512Medium15
Aleix Espargaro1:38.736+0.731+0.209Medium6
Johann Zarco1:38.827+0.822+0.344Medium7
Joan Mir1:38.891+0.886+0.562Medium23
Jack Miller1:38.907+0.902+0.105Medium15
Takaaki Nakagami1:39.057+1.052+0.359Medium22
Raul Fernandez1:39.064+1.059+0.667Medium21
Fabio Quartararo1:39.101+1.096+0.275Medium23
Alex Rins1:39.106+1.101+0.217Medium23
Augusto Fernandez1:39.456+1.451+0.437Medium15
Stefan Bradl1:39.616+1.611+0.530Soft23
Luca Marini1:39.644+1.639+0.308Medium22
Lorenzo Savadori1:39.858+1.853+0.781Medium9

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

40
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
2 leaders
16/25
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.372 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Brad Binder (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

58
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
2 leaders
10/12
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
2.970 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P23 to P3.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Fabio Quartararo (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:03:35Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:04:08Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:05:51Francesco BagnaiaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:07:19Fabio Di GiannantonioCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:10:57Lorenzo SavadoriCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:14:11Alex RinsCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:15Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:15Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:15Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:37Marco BezzecchiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:44Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:17:49Maverick ViñalesCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:20:29Marc MarquezPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Sprint15:21:27Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:21:27Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:22:12Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
SprintSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards 8 seconds time penalty for riders #20 Quartararo, #25 Fernandez, #42 Rins, #43 Miller & #49 Di
Race14:04:43Augusto FernandezJump startJump start
Race14:05:06Augusto FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty due to jump start
Race14:08:26Daniel PedrosaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:16:07Long lapDouble long lap penalty
Race14:17:48Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:17:52Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:19:22Jorge MartinCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:20:30Ride throughRide through
Race14:22:17Lorenzo SavadoriRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:30:57Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:30:57Franco MorbidelliCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:35:50Augusto FernandezRetiredEntered pits and retired

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium96%+0.74%+0.006138.6
Soft4%+1.64%−0.0240016.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
19.5 °C
Air
max 19.7 °C
42%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
12 km/h
Wind
gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Alex Marquez01:36.630—20290.3Soft / Soft1:38.522+0.42%6Medium
2Marc Marquez01:37.137+0.50721290.3Soft / Medium1:38.276+0.17%8Medium
3Maverick Viñales01:37.221+0.59119291.1Soft / Medium1:38.470+0.37%6Medium
4Aleix Espargaro01:37.303+0.67317292.6Soft / Medium1:39.312+1.22%5Medium
5Franco Morbidelli01:37.547+0.91722293.4Soft / Medium1:38.716+0.62%14Medium
6Marco Bezzecchi01:37.585+0.95519294.2Soft / Medium1:38.270+0.16%5Medium
7Daniel Pedrosa01:37.613+0.98320300.0Soft / Medium1:38.615+0.51%10Medium
8Brad Binder01:37.618+0.98820295.8Soft / Medium1:38.112—13Medium
9Jorge Martin01:37.635+1.00518295.0Soft / Medium1:38.948+0.85%5Medium
10Pedro Acosta01:37.642+1.01220299.1Soft / Medium1:38.350+0.24%16Medium
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:37.724+1.09418292.6Soft / Medium1:38.558+0.46%6Medium
12Francesco Bagnaia01:37.792+1.16217293.4Soft / Medium——
13Enea Bastianini01:37.886+1.25619295.8Soft / Medium1:39.412+1.33%6Medium
14Fabio Quartararo01:38.012+1.38215293.4Soft / Medium1:38.561+0.46%5Medium
15Miguel Oliveira01:38.049+1.41920293.4Soft / Medium1:38.484+0.38%8Medium
16Jack Miller01:38.078+1.44820296.7Medium / Medium1:39.038+0.94%8Medium
17Alex Rins01:38.203+1.57315294.2Soft / Medium1:39.340+1.25%5Medium
18Raul Fernandez01:38.247+1.61716290.3Soft / Medium1:38.534+0.43%5Medium
19Johann Zarco01:38.360+1.73019294.2Soft / Medium1:38.916+0.82%6Medium
20Augusto Fernandez01:38.370+1.74014291.1Soft / Medium1:39.842+1.76%6Medium
21Takaaki Nakagami01:38.539+1.90919291.8Soft / Medium1:40.244+2.17%4Medium
22Joan Mir01:38.574+1.94418292.6Soft / Medium1:39.631+1.55%6Medium
23Lorenzo Savadori01:38.728+2.09817291.1Soft / Medium1:40.440+2.37%10Medium
24Stefan Bradl01:38.734+2.10420299.1Soft / Medium1:40.094+2.02%5Medium
25Luca Marini01:38.775+2.14521291.1Soft / Medium1:39.234+1.14%10Medium
Practice · 26.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia01:36.025—23293.4Medium / Soft——
2Maverick Viñales01:36.125+0.10024292.6Medium / Soft1:37.518+0.28%7Medium
3Marc Marquez01:36.168+0.14326291.8Medium / Soft1:38.416+1.21%6Medium
4Marco Bezzecchi01:36.364+0.33920296.7Medium / Soft——
5Jorge Martin01:36.435+0.41025291.8Medium / Soft1:37.516+0.28%8Medium
6Pedro Acosta01:36.439+0.41424295.8Medium / Soft1:37.715+0.48%10Soft
7Aleix Espargaro01:36.446+0.42120291.8Medium / Soft1:37.319+0.08%5Soft
8Enea Bastianini01:36.480+0.45526295.0Medium / Soft1:37.834+0.61%13Medium
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:36.536+0.51121291.8Medium / Soft1:38.270+1.06%6Medium
10Alex Marquez01:36.539+0.51424291.1Medium / Soft1:37.707+0.48%7Medium
11Brad Binder01:36.644+0.61922295.8Medium / Soft1:37.244—7Soft
12Franco Morbidelli01:36.711+0.68622293.4Medium / Soft1:37.664+0.43%4Soft
13Jack Miller01:36.900+0.87522295.0Medium / Soft1:38.202+0.99%4Medium
14Daniel Pedrosa01:36.944+0.91923300.0Medium / Soft1:38.232+1.02%5Medium
15Alex Rins01:36.959+0.93423295.0Medium / Soft1:38.694+1.49%5Soft
16Takaaki Nakagami01:36.969+0.94424291.1Medium / Soft——
17Raul Fernandez01:37.111+1.08621291.8Medium / Soft——
18Johann Zarco01:37.277+1.25223294.2Medium / Soft1:38.686+1.48%6Medium
19Miguel Oliveira01:37.342+1.31724291.8Medium / Soft——
20Fabio Quartararo01:37.382+1.35722295.0Medium / Soft——
21Joan Mir01:37.476+1.45126293.4Medium / Soft——
22Augusto Fernandez01:37.611+1.58623292.6Medium / Soft1:39.538+2.36%5Soft
23Stefan Bradl01:37.709+1.68424295.8Medium / Soft——
24Luca Marini01:37.838+1.81324290.3Medium / Soft——
25Lorenzo Savadori01:37.902+1.87722291.8Medium / Soft——
FP2 · 27.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:48.183—11284.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:49.473+0.44%5Wet-Soft
2Fabio Di Giannantonio01:48.259+0.07614280.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:48.992—7Wet-Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:48.653+0.47014284.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.262+1.17%10Wet-Soft
4Raul Fernandez01:48.722+0.53911281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:49.906+0.84%6Wet-Soft
5Maverick Viñales01:48.749+0.56614281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.771+1.63%7Wet-Soft
6Miguel Oliveira01:48.794+0.61112281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.568+1.45%6Wet-Soft
7Pedro Acosta01:48.850+0.66714284.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:49.691+0.64%8Wet-Soft
8Franco Morbidelli01:48.875+0.69211281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.482+1.37%6Wet-Soft
9Alex Marquez01:48.901+0.71813281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:49.293+0.28%5Wet-Soft
10Aleix Espargaro01:48.902+0.71912283.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.575+1.45%6Wet-Soft
11Marco Bezzecchi01:48.988+0.80512283.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
12Jorge Martin01:49.083+0.90012282.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
13Jack Miller01:49.145+0.96212284.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.062+0.98%5Wet-Soft
14Daniel Pedrosa01:49.249+1.06610284.2Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft——
15Enea Bastianini01:49.514+1.33116281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.149+1.06%11Wet-Soft
16Augusto Fernandez01:49.515+1.33213278.3Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.647+1.52%7Wet-Soft
17Fabio Quartararo01:49.810+1.62712281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.564+1.44%5Wet-Soft
18Johann Zarco01:49.930+1.74711282.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
19Stefan Bradl01:49.936+1.75311281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
20Brad Binder01:50.027+1.84412283.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
21Joan Mir01:50.192+2.00911279.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
22Alex Rins01:50.220+2.03711280.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:53.155+3.82%6Wet-Soft
23Takaaki Nakagami01:50.358+2.17511278.3Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
24Lorenzo Savadori01:50.748+2.56510280.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:52.551+3.27%5Wet-Soft
25Luca Marini01:50.824+2.64111279.7Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft——
Q1 · 27.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Franco Morbidelli01:47.887—7281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
2Brad Binder01:47.949+0.0627284.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
3Johann Zarco01:48.102+0.2158282.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
4Miguel Oliveira01:48.418+0.5318281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:49.988+0.12%6Wet-Soft
5Jack Miller01:48.672+0.7856281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
6Daniel Pedrosa01:48.699+0.8127284.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:49.858—4Wet-Soft
7Raul Fernandez01:48.728+0.8418281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
8Augusto Fernandez01:49.229+1.3427279.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
9Stefan Bradl01:49.659+1.7728281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:52.797+2.68%6Wet-Soft
10Joan Mir01:49.765+1.8788280.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
11Lorenzo Savadori01:49.860+1.9737279.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
12Luca Marini01:49.978+2.0918281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
13Fabio Quartararo01:50.100+2.2137279.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.156+0.27%4Wet-Soft
14Takaaki Nakagami01:50.245+2.3587278.3Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
15Alex Rins01:50.302+2.4158279.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:50.719+0.78%5Wet-Soft
Q2 · 27.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marc Marquez01:46.773—7285.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
2Marco Bezzecchi01:47.044+0.2718285.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
3Jorge Martin01:47.381+0.6088288.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4Brad Binder01:47.730+0.9578292.6Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5Fabio Di Giannantonio01:47.778+1.0058283.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6Alex Marquez01:47.840+1.0677282.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7Francesco Bagnaia01:47.962+1.1898286.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
8Franco Morbidelli01:48.116+1.3436283.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
9Enea Bastianini01:48.362+1.5898287.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
10Pedro Acosta01:48.528+1.7557288.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
11Maverick Viñales01:48.595+1.8228285.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
12Aleix Espargaro01:49.417+2.6448284.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
Sprint · 27.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin19:52.6821212Medium / Soft1:38.448+0.04%10Soft
2Pedro Acosta+2.970912Medium / Soft1:38.684+0.28%9Soft
3Daniel Pedrosa+7.102712Medium / Soft1:39.052+0.65%9Soft
4Franco Morbidelli+8.481612Medium / Soft1:39.139+0.74%10Soft
5Fabio Quartararo+15.052512Medium / Soft1:39.070+0.67%10Soft
6Marc Marquez+18.131412Medium / Soft1:38.680+0.27%8Soft
7Augusto Fernandez+18.278312Medium / Soft1:39.907+1.52%10Soft
8Miguel Oliveira+18.418212Medium / Soft1:39.929+1.54%10Soft
9Joan Mir+18.553112Medium / Soft1:39.620+1.23%9Soft
10Takaaki Nakagami+21.136012Medium / Soft1:40.030+1.64%10Soft
11Johann Zarco+21.948012Medium / Soft1:39.097+0.70%9Soft
12Raul Fernandez+23.882012Medium / Soft1:39.690+1.30%10Soft
13Fabio Di Giannantonio+31.478012Medium / Soft1:38.964+0.56%9Soft
14Jack Miller+45.901012Medium / Soft1:40.080+1.69%10Soft
15Alex Rins+70.288012Medium / Soft1:40.529+2.15%9Soft
16Lorenzo Savadori+82.979012Medium / Soft1:42.542+4.20%9Soft
Out on lap 1Aleix Espargaro00— / ———
RetiredAlex Marquez08Medium / Soft1:38.559+0.15%5Soft
RetiredBrad Binder08Medium / Soft1:38.578+0.17%6Soft
RetiredEnea Bastianini08Medium / Soft1:38.471+0.06%6Soft
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia02Medium / Soft——
RetiredLuca Marini011Medium / Soft1:40.201+1.82%8Soft
RetiredMarco Bezzecchi08Medium / Soft1:38.705+0.30%6Soft
RetiredMaverick Viñales09Medium / Soft1:38.413—7Soft
RetiredStefan Bradl011Medium / Soft1:40.069+1.68%9Soft
Warm Up · 28.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Alex Marquez01:37.943—5292.6Soft / Medium
2Enea Bastianini01:38.119+0.1765294.2Soft / Medium
3Jack Miller01:38.120+0.1775294.2Soft / Medium
4Raul Fernandez01:38.131+0.1885290.3Soft / Medium
5Jorge Martin01:38.231+0.2885294.2Soft / Medium
6Francesco Bagnaia01:38.253+0.3105294.2Soft / Medium
7Franco Morbidelli01:38.279+0.3365292.6Soft / Medium
8Fabio Quartararo01:38.294+0.3515294.2Soft / Medium
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:38.406+0.4634290.3Soft / Medium
10Miguel Oliveira01:38.474+0.5315292.6Soft / Medium
11Brad Binder01:38.517+0.5745297.5Soft / Medium
12Pedro Acosta01:38.639+0.6964294.2Soft / Medium
13Marc Marquez01:38.771+0.8285293.4Soft / Medium
14Maverick Viñales01:38.860+0.9175291.1Soft / Medium
15Augusto Fernandez01:38.969+1.0265291.8Soft / Medium
16Marco Bezzecchi01:38.984+1.0415296.7Soft / Medium
17Takaaki Nakagami01:39.061+1.1185292.6Soft / Medium
18Johann Zarco01:39.329+1.3865293.4Soft / Medium
19Daniel Pedrosa01:39.443+1.5005296.7Soft / Medium
20Joan Mir01:39.462+1.5195291.8Soft / Medium
21Luca Marini01:39.720+1.7775290.3Soft / Medium
22Alex Rins01:39.815+1.8725298.3Soft / Medium
23Stefan Bradl01:40.109+2.1665295.0Soft / Soft
24Aleix Espargaro01:40.262+2.3195291.8Soft / Medium
25Lorenzo Savadori01:40.377+2.4345290.3Soft / Medium
Race · 28.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia40:58.0532525Medium / Medium1:38.005—21Medium
2Marc Marquez+0.3722025Medium / Medium1:38.089+0.09%22Medium
3Marco Bezzecchi+3.9031625Medium / Medium1:38.170+0.17%23Medium
4Alex Marquez+7.2051325Medium / Medium1:38.325+0.33%22Medium
5Enea Bastianini+7.2531125Medium / Medium1:38.314+0.32%21Medium
6Brad Binder+7.8011025Medium / Medium1:38.315+0.32%22Medium
7Fabio Di Giannantonio+10.063925Medium / Medium1:38.398+0.40%23Medium
8Miguel Oliveira+10.979825Medium / Medium1:38.451+0.46%23Medium
9Maverick Viñales+11.217725Medium / Medium1:38.372+0.37%23Medium
10Pedro Acosta+20.762625Medium / Medium1:38.714+0.72%23Medium
11Raul Fernandez+23.508525Medium / Medium1:39.064+1.08%21Medium
12Joan Mir+23.584425Medium / Medium1:38.891+0.90%23Medium
13Alex Rins+28.452325Medium / Medium1:39.106+1.12%23Medium
14Takaaki Nakagami+29.049225Medium / Medium1:39.057+1.07%22Medium
15Fabio Quartararo+32.015125Medium / Medium1:39.101+1.12%23Medium
16Stefan Bradl+41.433025Medium / Soft1:39.616+1.64%23Soft
17Luca Marini+43.323025Medium / Medium1:39.644+1.67%22Medium
RetiredAleix Espargaro09Medium / Medium1:38.736+0.75%6Medium
RetiredAugusto Fernandez019Medium / Medium1:39.456+1.48%15Medium
RetiredDaniel Pedrosa03Medium / Medium——
RetiredFranco Morbidelli017Medium / Medium1:38.725+0.74%15Medium
RetiredJack Miller017Medium / Medium1:38.907+0.92%15Medium
RetiredJohann Zarco09Medium / Medium1:38.827+0.84%7Medium
RetiredJorge Martin010Medium / Medium1:38.060+0.06%8Medium
RetiredLorenzo Savadori011Medium / Medium1:39.858+1.89%9Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales1:37.419—+0.292Medium5
Marc Marquez1:37.665*+0.246+0.210Medium3
Pedro Acosta1:37.672*+0.253+0.448Medium3
Enea Bastianini1:37.721+0.302+0.319Medium5
Jack Miller1:37.732+0.313+0.105Medium6
Johann Zarco1:38.787+1.368+0.344Medium7
Joan Mir1:38.840*+1.421+0.562Medium4
Augusto Fernandez1:39.182*+1.763+0.437Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Franco Morbidelli57%1 ✓
2Jack Miller41%5
3Raul Fernandez31%7
4Daniel Pedrosa21%6
5Brad Binder19%2 ✓
6Miguel Oliveira10%4
7Johann Zarco8%3
8Fabio Quartararo4%13
9Alex Rins3%15
10Augusto Fernandez3%8
11Takaaki Nakagami4%14
12Stefan Bradl1%9
13Joan Mir1%10
14Lorenzo Savadori0%11
15Luca Marini0%12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez130%63%80%91%7%6
Marco Bezzecchi220%52%73%88%10%—
Jorge Martin315%49%73%94%2%1
Brad Binder410%37%63%90%6%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio56%23%43%72%20%13
Alex Marquez65%21%41%76%15%—
Francesco Bagnaia74%17%37%83%2%—
Franco Morbidelli83%12%28%80%2%4
Enea Bastianini92%8%19%67%8%—
Pedro Acosta101%6%13%59%7%2
Maverick Viñales111%4%11%53%6%—
Aleix Espargaro121%2%6%35%24%—
Johann Zarco130%1%3%29%17%11
Miguel Oliveira140%1%3%24%11%8
Jack Miller150%1%3%19%6%14
Daniel Pedrosa160%1%1%14%8%3
Raul Fernandez170%1%1%9%3%12
Augusto Fernandez180%1%1%5%17%7
Stefan Bradl190%0%1%4%14%—
Joan Mir200%0%0%2%24%9
Lorenzo Savadori210%0%0%2%15%16
Luca Marini220%0%0%2%14%—
Fabio Quartararo230%0%0%1%10%5
Takaaki Nakagami240%0%0%1%13%10
Alex Rins250%0%0%1%16%15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez19%29%52%79%18%2
Marco Bezzecchi216%45%66%84%15%3
Jorge Martin324%53%68%76%23%—
Brad Binder421%50%69%84%14%6
Fabio Di Giannantonio54%20%38%78%17%7
Alex Marquez69%31%50%73%25%4
Francesco Bagnaia73%14%31%69%25%1
Franco Morbidelli80%4%12%63%16%—
Enea Bastianini910%32%53%78%19%5
Pedro Acosta102%10%25%78%13%10
Maverick Viñales112%13%29%76%13%9
Aleix Espargaro120%1%3%38%23%—
Johann Zarco130%0%1%29%19%—
Miguel Oliveira140%0%0%13%21%8
Jack Miller150%0%0%8%24%—
Daniel Pedrosa160%0%2%39%12%—
Raul Fernandez170%0%0%10%22%11
Augusto Fernandez180%0%0%7%18%—
Stefan Bradl190%0%0%2%18%16
Joan Mir200%0%0%6%28%12
Lorenzo Savadori210%0%0%0%22%—
Luca Marini220%0%0%1%8%17
Fabio Quartararo230%0%0%9%12%15
Takaaki Nakagami240%0%0%1%14%14
Alex Rins250%0%0%0%23%13

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Enea Bastianini9% → 32%+232% → 10%
Jorge Martin41% → 53%+1314% → 24%
Brad Binder38% → 50%+1212% → 21%
Dropping
Marc Marquez55% → 29%−2628% → 9%
Fabio Di Giannantonio30% → 20%−108% → 4%
Franco Morbidelli14% → 4%−103% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales1:38.413—+0.292Soft7
Jorge Martin1:38.448+0.035+0.457Soft10
Enea Bastianini1:38.471+0.058+0.319Soft6
Alex Marquez1:38.559+0.146+0.356Soft5
Brad Binder1:38.578+0.165+0.327Soft6
Marc Marquez1:38.680+0.267+0.210Soft8
Pedro Acosta1:38.684+0.271+0.448Soft9
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.705+0.292+0.553Soft6
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:38.964+0.551+0.320Soft9
Daniel Pedrosa1:39.052+0.639+0.089Soft9
Fabio Quartararo1:39.070+0.657+0.275Soft10
Johann Zarco1:39.097+0.684+0.344Soft9
Franco Morbidelli1:39.139+0.726+0.512Soft10
Joan Mir1:39.620+1.207+0.562Soft9
Raul Fernandez1:39.690+1.277+0.667Soft10
Augusto Fernandez1:39.907+1.494+0.437Soft10
Miguel Oliveira1:39.929+1.516+0.193Soft10
Takaaki Nakagami1:40.030+1.617+0.359Soft10
Stefan Bradl1:40.069+1.656+0.530Soft9
Jack Miller1:40.080+1.667+0.105Soft10
Luca Marini1:40.201+1.788+0.308Soft8
Alex Rins1:40.529+2.116+0.217Soft9
Lorenzo Savadori1:42.542+4.129+0.781Soft9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · BezzecchiS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Bastianini

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
56%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

39
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
4/24
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.221 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P20 to P13.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jack Miller (17 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2023 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:38.406—+0.221Medium21
Jorge Martin1:38.449+0.043+0.457Medium21
Brad Binder1:38.461+0.055+0.327Medium22
Jack Miller1:38.482+0.076+0.105Medium22
Aleix Espargaro1:38.523+0.117+0.209Medium21
Johann Zarco1:38.579+0.173+0.344Medium13
Daniel Pedrosa1:38.626+0.220+0.089Medium21
Maverick Viñales1:38.645+0.239+0.292Medium21
Luca Marini1:38.650+0.244+0.308Medium22
Marco Bezzecchi1:38.743+0.337+0.553Medium13

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2313%
20255/2322%
20248/2532%
20236/2326%
20223/2512%
20213/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+0.42%−0.004139.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.