Round 4 of 20 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2024

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

26.04 – 28.04.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:58.053	25
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.372	20
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.903	16
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.205	13
5	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.253	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.801	10
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.063	9
8	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+10.979	8
9	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.217	7
10	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+20.762	6
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+23.508	5
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.584	4
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+28.452	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+29.049	2
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+32.015	1
16	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+41.433	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+43.323	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:52.682	12
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+2.970	9
3	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.102	7
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+8.481	6
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.052	5
6	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+18.131	4
7	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+18.278	3
8	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+18.418	2
9	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.553	1
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+21.136	0
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+21.948	0
12	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+23.882	0
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+31.478	0
14	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+45.901	0
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+70.288	0
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+82.979	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 30%	Jorge Martin · 15% · from P3	0.44 / 0.44	5.9 / 5.8
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 28%	Francesco Bagnaia · 4% · from P7	0.87 / 0.87	2.3 / 2.2
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 24%	Francesco Bagnaia · 3% · from P7	0.86 / 0.87	2.5 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.005	—	+0.221	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:38.060	+0.055	+0.457	Medium	8
Marc Marquez	1:38.089	+0.084	+0.210	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.170	+0.165	+0.553	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:38.314	+0.309	+0.319	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:38.315	+0.310	+0.327	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:38.325	+0.320	+0.356	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:38.372	+0.367	+0.292	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.398	+0.393	+0.320	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.451	+0.446	+0.193	Medium	23
Pedro Acosta	1:38.714	+0.709	+0.448	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.725	+0.720	+0.512	Medium	15
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.736	+0.731	+0.209	Medium	6
Johann Zarco	1:38.827	+0.822	+0.344	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:38.891	+0.886	+0.562	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:38.907	+0.902	+0.105	Medium	15
Takaaki Nakagami	1:39.057	+1.052	+0.359	Medium	22
Raul Fernandez	1:39.064	+1.059	+0.667	Medium	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.101	+1.096	+0.275	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:39.106	+1.101	+0.217	Medium	23
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.456	+1.451	+0.437	Medium	15
Stefan Bradl	1:39.616	+1.611	+0.530	Soft	23
Luca Marini	1:39.644	+1.639	+0.308	Medium	22
Lorenzo Savadori	1:39.858	+1.853	+0.781	Medium	9

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/25

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.372 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Brad Binder (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/12

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

2.970 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P23 to P3.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Fabio Quartararo (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:35	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:04:08	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:51	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:07:19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:57	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:14:11	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:15	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:15	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:15	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:37	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:44	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:17:49	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:20:29	Marc Marquez	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:21:27	Luca Marini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:21:27	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:22:12	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards 8 seconds time penalty for riders #20 Quartararo, #25 Fernandez, #42 Rins, #43 Miller & #49 Di
Race	14:04:43	Augusto Fernandez	Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:05:06	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Double long lap penalty due to jump start
Race	14:08:26	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:07		Long lap	Double long lap penalty
Race	14:17:48	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:52	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:22	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:30		Ride through	Ride through
Race	14:22:17	Lorenzo Savadori	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:30:57	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:30:57	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:35:50	Augusto Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P7).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	15	9	+6
Francesco Bagnaia	7	1	+6
Miguel Oliveira	14	8	+6
Pedro Acosta	10	18	−8
Franco Morbidelli	8	13	−5
Lorenzo Savadori	21	25	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	7→1	+5.7
Alex Rins	25→13	+5.2
Takaaki Nakagami	24→14	+3.6
Pedro Acosta	10→10	−1.4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5→7	−1.6
Stefan Bradl	19→16	−1.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.74%	+0.006	1	3	8.6
Soft	4%	+1.64%	−0.024	0	0	16.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.5 °C

Air

max 19.7 °C

42%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:36.630	—	20	290.3	Soft / Soft	1:38.522	+0.42%	6	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:37.137	+0.507	21	290.3	Soft / Medium	1:38.276	+0.17%	8	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:37.221	+0.591	19	291.1	Soft / Medium	1:38.470	+0.37%	6	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.303	+0.673	17	292.6	Soft / Medium	1:39.312	+1.22%	5	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.547	+0.917	22	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:38.716	+0.62%	14	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.585	+0.955	19	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:38.270	+0.16%	5	Medium
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:37.613	+0.983	20	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:38.615	+0.51%	10	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:37.618	+0.988	20	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:38.112	—	13	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:37.635	+1.005	18	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:38.948	+0.85%	5	Medium
10	Pedro Acosta	01:37.642	+1.012	20	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:38.350	+0.24%	16	Medium
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.724	+1.094	18	292.6	Soft / Medium	1:38.558	+0.46%	6	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.792	+1.162	17	293.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Enea Bastianini	01:37.886	+1.256	19	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:39.412	+1.33%	6	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.012	+1.382	15	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:38.561	+0.46%	5	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.049	+1.419	20	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:38.484	+0.38%	8	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:38.078	+1.448	20	296.7	Medium / Medium	1:39.038	+0.94%	8	Medium
17	Alex Rins	01:38.203	+1.573	15	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:39.340	+1.25%	5	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	01:38.247	+1.617	16	290.3	Soft / Medium	1:38.534	+0.43%	5	Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:38.360	+1.730	19	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:38.916	+0.82%	6	Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.370	+1.740	14	291.1	Soft / Medium	1:39.842	+1.76%	6	Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.539	+1.909	19	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:40.244	+2.17%	4	Medium
22	Joan Mir	01:38.574	+1.944	18	292.6	Soft / Medium	1:39.631	+1.55%	6	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.728	+2.098	17	291.1	Soft / Medium	1:40.440	+2.37%	10	Medium
24	Stefan Bradl	01:38.734	+2.104	20	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:40.094	+2.02%	5	Medium
25	Luca Marini	01:38.775	+2.145	21	291.1	Soft / Medium	1:39.234	+1.14%	10	Medium

Practice · 26.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:36.025	—	23	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:36.125	+0.100	24	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:37.518	+0.28%	7	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:36.168	+0.143	26	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.416	+1.21%	6	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:36.364	+0.339	20	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Jorge Martin	01:36.435	+0.410	25	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:37.516	+0.28%	8	Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	01:36.439	+0.414	24	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:37.715	+0.48%	10	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.446	+0.421	20	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:37.319	+0.08%	5	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:36.480	+0.455	26	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:37.834	+0.61%	13	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:36.536	+0.511	21	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:38.270	+1.06%	6	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	01:36.539	+0.514	24	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:37.707	+0.48%	7	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:36.644	+0.619	22	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:37.244	—	7	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:36.711	+0.686	22	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:37.664	+0.43%	4	Soft
13	Jack Miller	01:36.900	+0.875	22	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.202	+0.99%	4	Medium
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:36.944	+0.919	23	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.232	+1.02%	5	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:36.959	+0.934	23	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:38.694	+1.49%	5	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:36.969	+0.944	24	291.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:37.111	+1.086	21	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Johann Zarco	01:37.277	+1.252	23	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.686	+1.48%	6	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.342	+1.317	24	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.382	+1.357	22	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:37.476	+1.451	26	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Augusto Fernandez	01:37.611	+1.586	23	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.538	+2.36%	5	Soft
23	Stefan Bradl	01:37.709	+1.684	24	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Luca Marini	01:37.838	+1.813	24	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:37.902	+1.877	22	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 27.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.183	—	11	284.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.473	+0.44%	5	Wet-Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:48.259	+0.076	14	280.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:48.992	—	7	Wet-Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.653	+0.470	14	284.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.262	+1.17%	10	Wet-Soft
4	Raul Fernandez	01:48.722	+0.539	11	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.906	+0.84%	6	Wet-Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:48.749	+0.566	14	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.771	+1.63%	7	Wet-Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.794	+0.611	12	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.568	+1.45%	6	Wet-Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:48.850	+0.667	14	284.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.691	+0.64%	8	Wet-Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.875	+0.692	11	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.482	+1.37%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:48.901	+0.718	13	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.293	+0.28%	5	Wet-Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.902	+0.719	12	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.575	+1.45%	6	Wet-Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:48.988	+0.805	12	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Jorge Martin	01:49.083	+0.900	12	282.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:49.145	+0.962	12	284.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.062	+0.98%	5	Wet-Soft
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.249	+1.066	10	284.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Enea Bastianini	01:49.514	+1.331	16	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.149	+1.06%	11	Wet-Soft
16	Augusto Fernandez	01:49.515	+1.332	13	278.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.647	+1.52%	7	Wet-Soft
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:49.810	+1.627	12	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.564	+1.44%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:49.930	+1.747	11	282.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
19	Stefan Bradl	01:49.936	+1.753	11	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Brad Binder	01:50.027	+1.844	12	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:50.192	+2.009	11	279.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
22	Alex Rins	01:50.220	+2.037	11	280.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:53.155	+3.82%	6	Wet-Soft
23	Takaaki Nakagami	01:50.358	+2.175	11	278.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
24	Lorenzo Savadori	01:50.748	+2.565	10	280.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.551	+3.27%	5	Wet-Soft
25	Luca Marini	01:50.824	+2.641	11	279.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q1 · 27.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.887	—	7	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
2	Brad Binder	01:47.949	+0.062	7	284.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:48.102	+0.215	8	282.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.418	+0.531	8	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.988	+0.12%	6	Wet-Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:48.672	+0.785	6	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.699	+0.812	7	284.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.858	—	4	Wet-Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:48.728	+0.841	8	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:49.229	+1.342	7	279.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Stefan Bradl	01:49.659	+1.772	8	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.797	+2.68%	6	Wet-Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:49.765	+1.878	8	280.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:49.860	+1.973	7	279.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:49.978	+2.091	8	281.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:50.100	+2.213	7	279.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.156	+0.27%	4	Wet-Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:50.245	+2.358	7	278.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Alex Rins	01:50.302	+2.415	8	279.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.719	+0.78%	5	Wet-Soft

Q2 · 27.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.773	—	7	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.044	+0.271	8	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:47.381	+0.608	8	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:47.730	+0.957	8	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.778	+1.005	8	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6	Alex Marquez	01:47.840	+1.067	7	282.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.962	+1.189	8	286.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.116	+1.343	6	283.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:48.362	+1.589	8	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	01:48.528	+1.755	7	288.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:48.595	+1.822	8	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.417	+2.644	8	284.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft

Sprint · 27.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:52.682	12	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.448	+0.04%	10	Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	+2.970	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.684	+0.28%	9	Soft
3	Daniel Pedrosa	+7.102	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.052	+0.65%	9	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	+8.481	6	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.139	+0.74%	10	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	+15.052	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.070	+0.67%	10	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	+18.131	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.680	+0.27%	8	Soft
7	Augusto Fernandez	+18.278	3	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.907	+1.52%	10	Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	+18.418	2	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.929	+1.54%	10	Soft
9	Joan Mir	+18.553	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.620	+1.23%	9	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.136	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.030	+1.64%	10	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+21.948	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.097	+0.70%	9	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	+23.882	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.690	+1.30%	10	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+31.478	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:38.964	+0.56%	9	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+45.901	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.080	+1.69%	10	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+70.288	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.529	+2.15%	9	Soft
16	Lorenzo Savadori	+82.979	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:42.542	+4.20%	9	Soft
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:38.559	+0.15%	5	Soft
Retired	Brad Binder		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:38.578	+0.17%	6	Soft
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:38.471	+0.06%	6	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Luca Marini		0	11	Medium / Soft	1:40.201	+1.82%	8	Soft
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:38.705	+0.30%	6	Soft
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:38.413	—	7	Soft
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	11	Medium / Soft	1:40.069	+1.68%	9	Soft

Warm Up · 28.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:37.943	—	5	292.6	Soft / Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	01:38.119	+0.176	5	294.2	Soft / Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:38.120	+0.177	5	294.2	Soft / Medium
4	Raul Fernandez	01:38.131	+0.188	5	290.3	Soft / Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:38.231	+0.288	5	294.2	Soft / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.253	+0.310	5	294.2	Soft / Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.279	+0.336	5	292.6	Soft / Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.294	+0.351	5	294.2	Soft / Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.406	+0.463	4	290.3	Soft / Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.474	+0.531	5	292.6	Soft / Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:38.517	+0.574	5	297.5	Soft / Medium
12	Pedro Acosta	01:38.639	+0.696	4	294.2	Soft / Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:38.771	+0.828	5	293.4	Soft / Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	01:38.860	+0.917	5	291.1	Soft / Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:38.969	+1.026	5	291.8	Soft / Medium
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.984	+1.041	5	296.7	Soft / Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.061	+1.118	5	292.6	Soft / Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:39.329	+1.386	5	293.4	Soft / Medium
19	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.443	+1.500	5	296.7	Soft / Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:39.462	+1.519	5	291.8	Soft / Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:39.720	+1.777	5	290.3	Soft / Medium
22	Alex Rins	01:39.815	+1.872	5	298.3	Soft / Medium
23	Stefan Bradl	01:40.109	+2.166	5	295.0	Soft / Soft
24	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.262	+2.319	5	291.8	Soft / Medium
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.377	+2.434	5	290.3	Soft / Medium

Race · 28.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:58.053	25	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.005	—	21	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+0.372	20	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.089	+0.09%	22	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+3.903	16	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.170	+0.17%	23	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	+7.205	13	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.325	+0.33%	22	Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	+7.253	11	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.314	+0.32%	21	Medium
6	Brad Binder	+7.801	10	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.315	+0.32%	22	Medium
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+10.063	9	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.398	+0.40%	23	Medium
8	Miguel Oliveira	+10.979	8	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.451	+0.46%	23	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	+11.217	7	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.372	+0.37%	23	Medium
10	Pedro Acosta	+20.762	6	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.714	+0.72%	23	Medium
11	Raul Fernandez	+23.508	5	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.064	+1.08%	21	Medium
12	Joan Mir	+23.584	4	25	Medium / Medium	1:38.891	+0.90%	23	Medium
13	Alex Rins	+28.452	3	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.106	+1.12%	23	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+29.049	2	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.057	+1.07%	22	Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	+32.015	1	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.101	+1.12%	23	Medium
16	Stefan Bradl	+41.433	0	25	Medium / Soft	1:39.616	+1.64%	23	Soft
17	Luca Marini	+43.323	0	25	Medium / Medium	1:39.644	+1.67%	22	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:38.736	+0.75%	6	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	19	Medium / Medium	1:39.456	+1.48%	15	Medium
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	3	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:38.725	+0.74%	15	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:38.907	+0.92%	15	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:38.827	+0.84%	7	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:38.060	+0.06%	8	Medium
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:39.858	+1.89%	9	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:37.419	—	+0.292	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:37.665*	+0.246	+0.210	Medium	3
Pedro Acosta	1:37.672*	+0.253	+0.448	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	1:37.721	+0.302	+0.319	Medium	5
Jack Miller	1:37.732	+0.313	+0.105	Medium	6
Johann Zarco	1:38.787	+1.368	+0.344	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:38.840*	+1.421	+0.562	Medium	4
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.182*	+1.763	+0.437	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	57%	1 ✓
2	Jack Miller	41%	5
3	Raul Fernandez	31%	7
4	Daniel Pedrosa	21%	6
5	Brad Binder	19%	2 ✓
6	Miguel Oliveira	10%	4
7	Johann Zarco	8%	3
8	Fabio Quartararo	4%	13
9	Alex Rins	3%	15
10	Augusto Fernandez	3%	8
11	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	14
12	Stefan Bradl	1%	9
13	Joan Mir	1%	10
14	Lorenzo Savadori	0%	11
15	Luca Marini	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	34%	63%	87%	1
2	Francesco Bagnaia	23%	51%	80%	7
3	Maverick Viñales	15%	47%	78%	11
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	5%	33%	67%	5
5	Pedro Acosta	5%	26%	53%	10
6	Marco Bezzecchi	7%	23%	56%	2
7	Jorge Martin	2%	12%	39%	3
8	Aleix Espargaro	3%	14%	38%	12
9	Alex Marquez	3%	9%	29%	6
10	Franco Morbidelli	2%	9%	25%	8
11	Enea Bastianini	3%	10%	29%	9
12	Brad Binder	1%	4%	20%	4

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	63%	80%	91%	7%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	2	20%	52%	73%	88%	10%	—
Jorge Martin	3	15%	49%	73%	94%	2%	1
Brad Binder	4	10%	37%	63%	90%	6%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	6%	23%	43%	72%	20%	13
Alex Marquez	6	5%	21%	41%	76%	15%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	7	4%	17%	37%	83%	2%	—
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	12%	28%	80%	2%	4
Enea Bastianini	9	2%	8%	19%	67%	8%	—
Pedro Acosta	10	1%	6%	13%	59%	7%	2
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	4%	11%	53%	6%	—
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	2%	6%	35%	24%	—
Johann Zarco	13	0%	1%	3%	29%	17%	11
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	1%	3%	24%	11%	8
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	3%	19%	6%	14
Daniel Pedrosa	16	0%	1%	1%	14%	8%	3
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	3%	12
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	1%	1%	5%	17%	7
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	14%	—
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	9
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	16
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	—
Fabio Quartararo	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%	5
Takaaki Nakagami	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	10
Alex Rins	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	9%	29%	52%	79%	18%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	2	16%	45%	66%	84%	15%	3
Jorge Martin	3	24%	53%	68%	76%	23%	—
Brad Binder	4	21%	50%	69%	84%	14%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	5	4%	20%	38%	78%	17%	7
Alex Marquez	6	9%	31%	50%	73%	25%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	7	3%	14%	31%	69%	25%	1
Franco Morbidelli	8	0%	4%	12%	63%	16%	—
Enea Bastianini	9	10%	32%	53%	78%	19%	5
Pedro Acosta	10	2%	10%	25%	78%	13%	10
Maverick Viñales	11	2%	13%	29%	76%	13%	9
Aleix Espargaro	12	0%	1%	3%	38%	23%	—
Johann Zarco	13	0%	0%	1%	29%	19%	—
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	0%	0%	13%	21%	8
Jack Miller	15	0%	0%	0%	8%	24%	—
Daniel Pedrosa	16	0%	0%	2%	39%	12%	—
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	0%	10%	22%	11
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	18%	—
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	16
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	28%	12
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	0%	22%	—
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	17
Fabio Quartararo	23	0%	0%	0%	9%	12%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	14
Alex Rins	25	0%	0%	0%	0%	23%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Enea Bastianini	9% → 32%	+23	2% → 10%
Jorge Martin	41% → 53%	+13	14% → 24%
Brad Binder	38% → 50%	+12	12% → 21%
Dropping
Marc Marquez	55% → 29%	−26	28% → 9%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	30% → 20%	−10	8% → 4%
Franco Morbidelli	14% → 4%	−10	3% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:38.413	—	+0.292	Soft	7
Jorge Martin	1:38.448	+0.035	+0.457	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:38.471	+0.058	+0.319	Soft	6
Alex Marquez	1:38.559	+0.146	+0.356	Soft	5
Brad Binder	1:38.578	+0.165	+0.327	Soft	6
Marc Marquez	1:38.680	+0.267	+0.210	Soft	8
Pedro Acosta	1:38.684	+0.271	+0.448	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.705	+0.292	+0.553	Soft	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.964	+0.551	+0.320	Soft	9
Daniel Pedrosa	1:39.052	+0.639	+0.089	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.070	+0.657	+0.275	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:39.097	+0.684	+0.344	Soft	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.139	+0.726	+0.512	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:39.620	+1.207	+0.562	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:39.690	+1.277	+0.667	Soft	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:39.907	+1.494	+0.437	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.929	+1.516	+0.193	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.030	+1.617	+0.359	Soft	10
Stefan Bradl	1:40.069	+1.656	+0.530	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:40.080	+1.667	+0.105	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:40.201	+1.788	+0.308	Soft	8
Alex Rins	1:40.529	+2.116	+0.217	Soft	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:42.542	+4.129	+0.781	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	80	—
2	Enea Bastianini	59	−21
3	Maverick Viñales	56	−24
4	Pedro Acosta	54	−26
5	Francesco Bagnaia	50	−30
6	Brad Binder	49	−31

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.221 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P20 to P13.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jack Miller (17 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.406	—	+0.221	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:38.449	+0.043	+0.457	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:38.461	+0.055	+0.327	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:38.482	+0.076	+0.105	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.523	+0.117	+0.209	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:38.579	+0.173	+0.344	Medium	13
Daniel Pedrosa	1:38.626	+0.220	+0.089	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:38.645	+0.239	+0.292	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:38.650	+0.244	+0.308	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.743	+0.337	+0.553	Medium	13

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.42%	−0.004	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.