Round 3 of 20 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2024

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

12.04 – 14.04.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	41:09.503	25
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+1.728	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.703	16
4	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.690	13
5	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.392	11
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.980	10
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.208	9
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+13.343	8
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.931	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+16.656	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+18.542	5
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+22.899	4
13	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+24.011	3
14	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+27.652	2
15	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+32.855	1
16	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+33.529	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	20:27.825	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.294	9
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.399	7
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+6.480	6
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.657	5
6	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.621	4
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.237	3
8	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+9.349	2
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+9.637	1
10	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.894	0
11	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+10.364	0
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.724	0
13	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.549	0
14	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.468	0
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.574	0
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.146	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+22.989	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Maverick Viñales · 33% ✓	Maverick Viñales · 33% · from P1	0.87 / 0.87	2.1 / 2.2
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 30% ✓	Maverick Viñales · 30% · from P1	0.89 / 0.89	1.5 / 1.6
Race (after the sprint)	Maverick Viñales · 44% ✓	Maverick Viñales · 44% · from P1	0.89 / 0.89	1.9 / 1.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:03.294	—	+0.292	Medium	18
Pedro Acosta	2:03.464	+0.170	+0.448	Medium	16
Jorge Martin	2:03.532	+0.238	+0.457	Soft	15
Marc Marquez	2:03.534	+0.240	+0.210	Soft	8
Enea Bastianini	2:03.621	+0.327	+0.319	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.759	+0.465	+0.221	Soft	15
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:03.762	+0.468	+0.320	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:03.775	+0.481	+0.512	Soft	5
Miguel Oliveira	2:03.806	+0.512	+0.193	Medium	18
Marco Bezzecchi	2:03.821	+0.527	+0.553	Soft	17
Aleix Espargaro	2:03.839	+0.545	+0.209	Soft	18
Brad Binder	2:03.852	+0.558	+0.327	Soft	17
Alex Marquez	2:03.885	+0.591	+0.356	Soft	17
Raul Fernandez	2:03.892	+0.598	+0.667	Medium	17
Fabio Quartararo	2:04.344	+1.050	+0.275	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:04.424	+1.130	+0.562	Medium	6
Augusto Fernandez	2:04.477	+1.183	+0.437	Soft	18
Jack Miller	2:04.683	+1.389	+0.105	Soft	17
Alex Rins	2:04.696	+1.402	+0.217	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	2:04.849	+1.555	+0.344	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	2:04.873	+1.579	+0.359	Soft	4
Luca Marini	2:04.881	+1.587	+0.308	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

8/20

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

1.728 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Raul Fernandez (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

10/10

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

2.294 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Miguel Oliveira (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:25	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:04:10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Sprint	15:04:55	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:40	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:07	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:34	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:17:20	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:55	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:02	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:38	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:14	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:24	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Pedro Acosta (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	15	7	+8
Jack Miller	11	3	+8
Takaaki Nakagami	21	14	+7
Maverick Viñales	1	9	−8
Aleix Espargaro	7	12	−5
Fabio Quartararo	16	20	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	17→9	+4.1
Enea Bastianini	5→3	+2.4
Jorge Martin	6→4	+2.0
Aleix Espargaro	7→7	−0.3
Jack Miller	11→13	−3.7
Alex Marquez	12→15	−5.1

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	64%	+0.44%	+0.002	0	1	8.7
Medium	36%	+0.70%	−0.014	1	2	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.0 °C

Air

max 27.9 °C

65%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

20 km/h

Wind

gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	02:03.294	—	17	341.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	02:03.443	+0.149	17	343.9	Soft / Medium	2:04.928	+0.32%	5	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	02:03.606	+0.312	16	345.0	Soft / Medium	2:05.778	+1.01%	10	Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	02:03.700	+0.406	16	345.0	Soft / Medium	2:06.218	+1.36%	12	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	02:03.812	+0.518	16	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Brad Binder	02:03.865	+0.571	18	349.5	Soft / Medium	2:05.077	+0.44%	6	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.904	+0.610	17	341.7	Soft / Medium	2:05.378	+0.69%	10	Medium
8	Marc Marquez	02:04.003	+0.709	16	341.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Jack Miller	02:04.210	+0.916	17	345.0	Soft / Medium	2:05.574	+0.84%	10	Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:04.226	+0.932	14	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.242	+0.948	17	342.8	Soft / Medium	2:04.524	—	6	Medium
12	Raul Fernandez	02:04.272	+0.978	16	342.8	Soft / Medium	2:04.549	+0.02%	5	Medium
13	Alex Rins	02:04.305	+1.011	17	343.9	Soft / Medium	2:05.157	+0.51%	5	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.311	+1.017	17	342.8	Soft / Medium	2:05.413	+0.71%	13	Medium
15	Luca Marini	02:04.402	+1.108	16	343.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Joan Mir	02:04.435	+1.141	15	343.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.514	+1.220	17	341.7	Soft / Medium	2:05.511	+0.79%	5	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	02:04.559	+1.265	15	338.5	Soft / Medium	2:06.341	+1.46%	11	Medium
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.813	+1.519	15	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	02:04.857	+1.563	16	341.7	Soft / Medium	2:05.968	+1.16%	11	Medium
21	Johann Zarco	02:05.345	+2.051	15	337.5	Soft / Medium	2:05.908	+1.11%	5	Medium
22	Takaaki Nakagami	02:05.372	+2.078	16	340.6	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 12.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	02:01.397	—	20	343.9	Medium / Soft	2:03.910	+0.08%	6	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	02:01.473	+0.076	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	2:04.914	+0.89%	5	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	02:01.806	+0.409	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.808	+0.411	19	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	02:01.966	+0.569	19	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.024	+0.627	17	347.2	Medium / Soft	2:04.015	+0.17%	5	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	02:02.103	+0.706	19	341.7	Medium / Soft	2:04.542	+0.59%	4	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	02:02.144	+0.747	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:02.244	+0.847	17	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.358	+0.961	21	345.0	Medium / Soft	2:04.032	+0.18%	4	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	02:02.466	+1.069	18	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	02:02.476	+1.079	18	347.2	Medium / Soft	2:04.274	+0.38%	4	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	02:02.493	+1.096	20	343.9	Medium / Soft	2:03.810	—	5	Soft
14	Brad Binder	02:02.551	+1.154	18	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	02:02.553	+1.156	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	2:05.780	+1.59%	6	Soft
16	Jack Miller	02:02.802	+1.405	19	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.839	+1.442	20	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Rins	02:02.875	+1.478	17	342.8	Medium / Soft	2:04.444	+0.51%	4	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	02:03.014	+1.617	19	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Joan Mir	02:03.444	+2.047	17	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Luca Marini	02:03.521	+2.124	20	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.984	+2.587	20	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	02:02.243	—	12	346.1	— / —	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.414	+0.171	9	345.0	— / —	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	02:02.440	+0.197	12	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	02:02.556	+0.313	11	342.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	02:02.605	+0.362	12	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	02:02.607	+0.364	11	347.2	— / —	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:02.681	+0.438	11	342.8	— / —	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	02:02.780	+0.537	11	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Raul Fernandez	02:02.807	+0.564	10	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.829	+0.586	12	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Jack Miller	02:02.854	+0.611	13	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	02:02.955	+0.712	11	340.6	— / —	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:02.985	+0.742	12	341.7	— / —	—			—
14	Enea Bastianini	02:03.063	+0.820	10	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	02:03.303	+1.060	12	346.1	Medium / Soft	2:03.799	—	9	Soft
16	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.322	+1.079	12	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	02:03.385	+1.142	11	342.8	— / —	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	02:03.503	+1.260	10	339.6	— / —	—			—
19	Joan Mir	02:03.603	+1.360	11	342.8	— / —	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.742	+1.499	11	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Luca Marini	02:04.245	+2.002	11	338.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Johann Zarco	02:04.269	+2.026	12	341.7	Medium / Soft	2:04.766	+0.78%	6	Soft

Q1 · 13.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	02:01.541	—	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	02:01.553	+0.012	6	340.6	Medium / Soft
3	Raul Fernandez	02:01.726	+0.185	7	342.8	Medium / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.844	+0.303	7	343.9	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Rins	02:01.893	+0.352	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	02:02.089	+0.548	6	340.6	Medium / Soft
7	Brad Binder	02:02.140	+0.599	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	02:02.223	+0.682	6	340.6	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	02:02.380	+0.839	6	341.7	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	02:02.829	+1.288	6	347.2	Medium / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.114	+1.573	6	338.5	Medium / Soft
12	Luca Marini	02:03.249	+1.708	6	337.5	Medium / missing

Q2 · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	02:00.864	—	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	02:01.192	+0.328	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	02:01.266	+0.402	6	347.2	Medium / Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.352	+0.488	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	02:01.439	+0.575	5	343.9	Medium / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	02:01.511	+0.647	5	347.2	Soft / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.562	+0.698	4	346.1	Medium / Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:01.667	+0.803	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.737	+0.873	7	342.8	Medium / Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	02:02.279	+1.415	6	347.2	Medium / Soft
11	Jack Miller	02:02.297	+1.433	7	343.9	Medium / Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —

Sprint · 13.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	20:27.825	12	10	Medium / Soft	2:02.631	—	8	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+2.294	9	10	Medium / Soft	2:02.978	+0.28%	8	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+4.399	7	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.042	+0.34%	8	Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	+6.480	6	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.298	+0.54%	8	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	+6.657	5	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.210	+0.47%	8	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	+8.621	4	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.616	+0.80%	8	Soft
7	Jack Miller	+9.237	3	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.427	+0.65%	7	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	+9.349	2	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.376	+0.61%	7	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	+9.637	1	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.241	+0.50%	8	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	+9.894	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.427	+0.65%	8	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	+10.364	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.384	+0.61%	8	Soft
12	Brad Binder	+10.724	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.388	+0.62%	7	Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	+11.549	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.370	+0.60%	8	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+15.468	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.682	+0.86%	8	Soft
15	Fabio Quartararo	+15.574	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.814	+0.97%	8	Soft
16	Alex Rins	+18.146	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.959	+1.08%	8	Soft
17	Luca Marini	+22.989	0	10	Medium / Soft	2:04.558	+1.57%	8	Soft
Out on lap 1	Augusto Fernandez		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	6	Medium / Soft	—			—
Out on lap 1	Takaaki Nakagami		0	0	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 14.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	02:02.341	—	5	336.4	Soft / Medium
2	Marc Marquez	02:02.517	+0.176	5	338.5	Medium / Medium
3	Raul Fernandez	02:02.795	+0.454	5	336.4	Soft / Medium
4	Jorge Martin	02:02.898	+0.557	5	340.6	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	02:02.919	+0.578	5	340.6	Medium / Soft
6	Pedro Acosta	02:03.071	+0.730	5	346.1	Medium / Medium
7	Brad Binder	02:03.076	+0.735	5	346.1	Medium / Medium
8	Jack Miller	02:03.213	+0.872	5	347.2	Medium / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.218	+0.877	5	342.8	Medium / Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.333	+0.992	5	339.6	Medium / Medium
11	Enea Bastianini	02:03.340	+0.999	5	342.8	Medium / Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	02:03.368	+1.027	5	338.5	Soft / Medium
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:03.381	+1.040	5	345.0	Soft / Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:03.389	+1.048	5	337.5	Soft / Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.499	+1.158	5	342.8	Medium / Soft
16	Alex Rins	02:03.515	+1.174	5	341.7	Medium / Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.648	+1.307	5	340.6	Soft / Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.750	+1.409	5	338.5	Medium / Soft
19	Augusto Fernandez	02:03.786	+1.445	5	340.6	Medium / Medium
20	Johann Zarco	02:03.911	+1.570	5	339.6	Medium / Medium
21	Joan Mir	02:03.975	+1.634	5	341.7	Soft / Medium
22	Luca Marini	02:04.379	+2.038	5	338.5	Medium / Soft

Race · 14.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	41:09.503	25	20	Medium / Medium	2:03.294	—	18	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	+1.728	20	20	Medium / Medium	2:03.464	+0.14%	16	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+2.703	16	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.621	+0.27%	18	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	+4.690	13	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.532	+0.19%	15	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	+7.392	11	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.759	+0.38%	15	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+9.980	10	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.762	+0.38%	18	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	+12.208	9	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.839	+0.44%	18	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+13.343	8	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.821	+0.43%	17	Soft
9	Brad Binder	+14.931	7	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.852	+0.45%	17	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+16.656	6	20	Medium / Medium	2:03.892	+0.49%	17	Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	+18.542	5	20	Medium / Medium	2:03.806	+0.42%	18	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	+22.899	4	20	Medium / Soft	2:04.344	+0.85%	18	Soft
13	Jack Miller	+24.011	3	20	Medium / Soft	2:04.683	+1.13%	17	Soft
14	Augusto Fernandez	+27.652	2	20	Medium / Soft	2:04.477	+0.96%	18	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	+32.855	1	20	Medium / Soft	2:03.885	+0.48%	17	Soft
16	Luca Marini	+33.529	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:04.881	+1.29%	18	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	10	Medium / Medium	2:04.696	+1.14%	8	Medium
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	7	Medium / Soft	2:03.775	+0.39%	5	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	8	Medium / Medium	2:04.424	+0.92%	6	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	6	Medium / Medium	2:04.849	+1.26%	4	Medium
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	10	Medium / Soft	2:03.534	+0.20%	8	Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	6	Medium / Soft	2:04.873	+1.28%	4	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:03.175*	—	+0.210	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.831*	+0.656	+0.221	Medium	3
Augusto Fernandez	2:03.879*	+0.704	+0.437	Medium	3
Jack Miller	2:03.891*	+0.716	+0.105	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	2:04.190*	+1.015	+0.344	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Raul Fernandez	57%	3
2	Brad Binder	41%	7
3	Alex Marquez	30%	2 ✓
4	Miguel Oliveira	21%	4
5	Fabio Quartararo	19%	6
6	Jack Miller	9%	1 ✓
7	Augusto Fernandez	8%	8
8	Johann Zarco	4%	9
9	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	11
10	Luca Marini	3%	12
11	Alex Rins	4%	5
12	Joan Mir	1%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	33%	63%	87%	1
2	Marc Marquez	23%	51%	80%	3
3	Jorge Martin	15%	47%	78%	6
4	Franco Morbidelli	5%	33%	68%	9
5	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	27%	53%	4
6	Enea Bastianini	7%	23%	56%	5
7	Pedro Acosta	2%	12%	39%	2
8	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	14%	38%	10
9	Aleix Espargaro	3%	9%	29%	7
10	Jack Miller	2%	9%	26%	11
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	10%	29%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	33%	66%	81%	92%	6%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	21%	56%	74%	89%	8%	4
Marc Marquez	3	14%	48%	71%	90%	7%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	39%	65%	92%	2%	8
Enea Bastianini	5	6%	26%	51%	85%	8%	6
Jorge Martin	6	5%	22%	47%	88%	2%	3
Aleix Espargaro	7	3%	12%	29%	66%	25%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	2%	8%	23%	68%	17%	—
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	7%	19%	73%	2%	10
Marco Bezzecchi	10	1%	4%	12%	58%	10%	13
Jack Miller	11	1%	4%	9%	52%	6%	7
Alex Marquez	12	1%	2%	6%	36%	15%	14
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	2%	5%	34%	2%	9
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	1%	3%	25%	11%	11
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	2%	17%	17%	16
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	1%	2%	13%	10%	15
Brad Binder	17	0%	1%	2%	9%	6%	12
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	14%	—
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	14%	—
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%	—
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	44%	74%	82%	87%	13%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	10%	39%	63%	82%	14%	2
Marc Marquez	3	23%	60%	74%	82%	17%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	4	3%	19%	38%	68%	26%	5
Enea Bastianini	5	0%	7%	20%	63%	20%	3
Jorge Martin	6	10%	39%	60%	75%	23%	4
Aleix Espargaro	7	6%	30%	51%	72%	24%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	1%	10%	29%	70%	17%	6
Franco Morbidelli	9	0%	3%	12%	56%	15%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	10	0%	4%	14%	59%	15%	8
Jack Miller	11	0%	2%	8%	47%	24%	13
Alex Marquez	12	0%	1%	3%	30%	25%	15
Raul Fernandez	13	1%	7%	23%	65%	23%	10
Miguel Oliveira	14	1%	5%	16%	59%	21%	11
Alex Rins	15	0%	0%	1%	14%	22%	—
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	0%	1%	16%	12%	12
Brad Binder	17	0%	2%	6%	45%	14%	9
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	18%	14
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	18%	—
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	—
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	22% → 39%	+17	4% → 10%
Marc Marquez	44% → 60%	+16	15% → 23%
Aleix Espargaro	17% → 30%	+13	4% → 6%
Dropping
Enea Bastianini	28% → 7%	−21	7% → 0%
Francesco Bagnaia	32% → 19%	−14	9% → 3%
Pedro Acosta	52% → 39%	−13	22% → 10%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:02.631	—	+0.292	Soft	8
Marc Marquez	2:02.978	+0.347	+0.210	Soft	8
Jorge Martin	2:03.042	+0.411	+0.457	Soft	8
Aleix Espargaro	2:03.210	+0.579	+0.209	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	2:03.241	+0.610	+0.667	Soft	8
Pedro Acosta	2:03.298	+0.667	+0.448	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	2:03.370	+0.739	+0.553	Soft	8
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.376	+0.745	+0.221	Soft	7
Miguel Oliveira	2:03.384	+0.753	+0.193	Soft	8
Brad Binder	2:03.388	+0.757	+0.327	Soft	7
Jack Miller	2:03.427	+0.796	+0.105	Soft	7
Franco Morbidelli	2:03.427	+0.796	+0.512	Soft	8
Enea Bastianini	2:03.616	+0.985	+0.319	Soft	8
Alex Marquez	2:03.682	+1.051	+0.356	Soft	8
Fabio Quartararo	2:03.814	+1.183	+0.275	Soft	8
Alex Rins	2:03.959	+1.328	+0.217	Soft	8
Luca Marini	2:04.558	+1.927	+0.308	Soft	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	60	—
2	Brad Binder	42	−18
3	Enea Bastianini	39	−21
4	Francesco Bagnaia	37	−23
5	Pedro Acosta	28	−32
6	Marc Marquez	27	−33

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

3.498 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P5.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Stefan Bradl (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	2:03.429	—	+0.105	Soft	4
Francesco Bagnaia	2:03.448	+0.019	+0.221	Soft	4
Alex Rins	2:03.595	+0.166	+0.217	Soft	18
Luca Marini	2:03.688	+0.259	+0.308	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:03.767	+0.338	+0.275	Soft	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:03.860	+0.431	+0.193	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	2:03.862	+0.433	+0.292	Soft	17
Marco Bezzecchi	2:04.127	+0.698	+0.553	missing	18
Johann Zarco	2:04.213	+0.784	+0.344	Soft	17
Takaaki Nakagami	2:04.368	+0.939	+0.359	Soft	9

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.76%	+0.008	1	3	6.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.