MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 3 of 20 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2024

Circuit Of The Americas United States

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013
12.04 – 14.04.2024
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing41:09.50325
2Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+1.72820
3Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+2.70316
4Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+4.69013
5Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+7.39211
6Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+9.98010
7Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+12.2089
8Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+13.3438
9Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+14.9317
10Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+16.6566
11Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+18.5425
12Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+22.8994
13Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+24.0113
14Augusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+27.6522
15Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+32.8551
16Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+33.5290
DNFAlex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFFranco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCRRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFTakaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCRRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing20:27.82512
2Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+2.2949
3Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+4.3997
4Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+6.4806
5Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+6.6575
6Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+8.6214
7Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+9.2373
8Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+9.3492
9Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+9.6371
10Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+9.8940
11Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+10.3640
12Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+10.7240
13Marco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+11.5490
14Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+15.4680
15Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+15.5740
16Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+18.1460
17Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+22.9890
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3Out on lap 10
DNFFabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamOut on lap 10
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCRRetired0
DNFTakaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCROut on lap 10

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMaverick Viñales · 33% ✓Maverick Viñales · 33% · from P10.87 / 0.872.1 / 2.2
Race (after the grid)Maverick Viñales · 30% ✓Maverick Viñales · 30% · from P10.89 / 0.891.5 / 1.6
Race (after the sprint)Maverick Viñales · 44% ✓Maverick Viñales · 44% · from P10.89 / 0.891.9 / 1.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales2:03.294—+0.292Medium18
Pedro Acosta2:03.464+0.170+0.448Medium16
Jorge Martin2:03.532+0.238+0.457Soft15
Marc Marquez2:03.534+0.240+0.210Soft8
Enea Bastianini2:03.621+0.327+0.319Soft18
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.759+0.465+0.221Soft15
Fabio Di Giannantonio2:03.762+0.468+0.320Soft18
Franco Morbidelli2:03.775+0.481+0.512Soft5
Miguel Oliveira2:03.806+0.512+0.193Medium18
Marco Bezzecchi2:03.821+0.527+0.553Soft17
Aleix Espargaro2:03.839+0.545+0.209Soft18
Brad Binder2:03.852+0.558+0.327Soft17
Alex Marquez2:03.885+0.591+0.356Soft17
Raul Fernandez2:03.892+0.598+0.667Medium17
Fabio Quartararo2:04.344+1.050+0.275Soft18
Joan Mir2:04.424+1.130+0.562Medium6
Augusto Fernandez2:04.477+1.183+0.437Soft18
Jack Miller2:04.683+1.389+0.105Soft17
Alex Rins2:04.696+1.402+0.217Medium8
Johann Zarco2:04.849+1.555+0.344Medium4
Takaaki Nakagami2:04.873+1.579+0.359Soft4
Luca Marini2:04.881+1.587+0.308Medium18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

75
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
8/20
Laps led by the winner
Maverick Viñales
1.728 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P9.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Raul Fernandez (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

15
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
10/10
Laps led by the winner
Maverick Viñales
2.294 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Miguel Oliveira (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:03:25Takaaki NakagamiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:04:10Fabio Di GiannantonioTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
Sprint15:04:55Augusto FernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:10:40Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:07Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:15:34Johann ZarcoRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:17:20Takaaki NakagamiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:17:55Franco MorbidelliCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:20:02Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:23:38Alex MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:24:14Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:25:24Alex RinsCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft64%+0.44%+0.002018.7
Medium36%+0.70%−0.014128.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
27.0 °C
Air
max 27.9 °C
65%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
20 km/h
Wind
gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 12.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales02:03.294—17341.7Soft / Medium——
2Jorge Martin02:03.443+0.14917343.9Soft / Medium2:04.928+0.32%5Medium
3Pedro Acosta02:03.606+0.31216345.0Soft / Medium2:05.778+1.01%10Medium
4Enea Bastianini02:03.700+0.40616345.0Soft / Medium2:06.218+1.36%12Medium
5Marco Bezzecchi02:03.812+0.51816346.1Medium / Soft——
6Brad Binder02:03.865+0.57118349.5Soft / Medium2:05.077+0.44%6Medium
7Franco Morbidelli02:03.904+0.61017341.7Soft / Medium2:05.378+0.69%10Medium
8Marc Marquez02:04.003+0.70916341.7Soft / Medium——
9Jack Miller02:04.210+0.91617345.0Soft / Medium2:05.574+0.84%10Medium
10Fabio Di Giannantonio02:04.226+0.93214342.8Medium / Soft——
11Francesco Bagnaia02:04.242+0.94817342.8Soft / Medium2:04.524—6Medium
12Raul Fernandez02:04.272+0.97816342.8Soft / Medium2:04.549+0.02%5Medium
13Alex Rins02:04.305+1.01117343.9Soft / Medium2:05.157+0.51%5Medium
14Fabio Quartararo02:04.311+1.01717342.8Soft / Medium2:05.413+0.71%13Medium
15Luca Marini02:04.402+1.10816343.9Soft / Medium——
16Joan Mir02:04.435+1.14115343.9Soft / Medium——
17Miguel Oliveira02:04.514+1.22017341.7Soft / Medium2:05.511+0.79%5Medium
18Augusto Fernandez02:04.559+1.26515338.5Soft / Medium2:06.341+1.46%11Medium
19Aleix Espargaro02:04.813+1.51915346.1Soft / Medium——
20Alex Marquez02:04.857+1.56316341.7Soft / Medium2:05.968+1.16%11Medium
21Johann Zarco02:05.345+2.05115337.5Soft / Medium2:05.908+1.11%5Medium
22Takaaki Nakagami02:05.372+2.07816340.6Soft / Medium——
Practice · 12.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin02:01.397—20343.9Medium / Soft2:03.910+0.08%6Soft
2Maverick Viñales02:01.473+0.07620345.0Medium / Soft2:04.914+0.89%5Medium
3Marc Marquez02:01.806+0.40918343.9Medium / Soft——
4Francesco Bagnaia02:01.808+0.41119341.7Medium / Soft——
5Pedro Acosta02:01.966+0.56919346.1Medium / Soft——
6Aleix Espargaro02:02.024+0.62717347.2Medium / Soft2:04.015+0.17%5Soft
7Franco Morbidelli02:02.103+0.70619341.7Medium / Soft2:04.542+0.59%4Soft
8Enea Bastianini02:02.144+0.74718343.9Medium / Soft——
9Fabio Di Giannantonio02:02.244+0.84717340.6Medium / Soft——
10Marco Bezzecchi02:02.358+0.96121345.0Medium / Soft2:04.032+0.18%4Soft
11Miguel Oliveira02:02.466+1.06918342.8Medium / Soft——
12Raul Fernandez02:02.476+1.07918347.2Medium / Soft2:04.274+0.38%4Soft
13Alex Marquez02:02.493+1.09620343.9Medium / Soft2:03.810—5Soft
14Brad Binder02:02.551+1.15418350.6Medium / Soft——
15Augusto Fernandez02:02.553+1.15618343.9Medium / Soft2:05.780+1.59%6Soft
16Jack Miller02:02.802+1.40519346.1Soft / Soft——
17Fabio Quartararo02:02.839+1.44220342.8Medium / Soft——
18Alex Rins02:02.875+1.47817342.8Medium / Soft2:04.444+0.51%4Soft
19Johann Zarco02:03.014+1.61719340.6Medium / Soft——
20Joan Mir02:03.444+2.04717343.9Medium / Soft——
21Luca Marini02:03.521+2.12420342.8Medium / Soft——
22Takaaki Nakagami02:03.984+2.58720343.9Medium / Soft——
FP2 · 13.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Pedro Acosta02:02.243—12346.1— / ———
2Francesco Bagnaia02:02.414+0.1719345.0— / ———
3Marc Marquez02:02.440+0.19712343.9Medium / Soft——
4Maverick Viñales02:02.556+0.31311342.8Soft / Soft——
5Alex Marquez02:02.605+0.36212339.6Medium / Soft——
6Jorge Martin02:02.607+0.36411347.2— / ———
7Aleix Espargaro02:02.681+0.43811342.8— / ———
8Franco Morbidelli02:02.780+0.53711343.9Medium / Soft——
9Raul Fernandez02:02.807+0.56410345.0Medium / Soft——
10Marco Bezzecchi02:02.829+0.58612343.9Medium / Soft——
11Jack Miller02:02.854+0.61113345.0Medium / Soft——
12Miguel Oliveira02:02.955+0.71211340.6— / ———
13Fabio Di Giannantonio02:02.985+0.74212341.7— / ———
14Enea Bastianini02:03.063+0.82010345.0Medium / Soft——
15Brad Binder02:03.303+1.06012346.1Medium / Soft2:03.799—9Soft
16Fabio Quartararo02:03.322+1.07912339.6Medium / Soft——
17Alex Rins02:03.385+1.14211342.8— / ———
18Augusto Fernandez02:03.503+1.26010339.6— / ———
19Joan Mir02:03.603+1.36011342.8— / ———
20Takaaki Nakagami02:03.742+1.49911339.6Soft / Soft——
21Luca Marini02:04.245+2.00211338.5Medium / Soft——
22Johann Zarco02:04.269+2.02612341.7Medium / Soft2:04.766+0.78%6Soft
Q1 · 13.04 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Jack Miller02:01.541—6345.0Medium / Soft
2Alex Marquez02:01.553+0.0126340.6Medium / Soft
3Raul Fernandez02:01.726+0.1857342.8Medium / Soft
4Miguel Oliveira02:01.844+0.3037343.9Medium / Soft
5Alex Rins02:01.893+0.3526342.8Medium / Soft
6Fabio Quartararo02:02.089+0.5486340.6Medium / Soft
7Brad Binder02:02.140+0.5995345.0Medium / Soft
8Augusto Fernandez02:02.223+0.6826340.6Medium / Soft
9Johann Zarco02:02.380+0.8396341.7Medium / Soft
10Joan Mir02:02.829+1.2886347.2Medium / Soft
11Takaaki Nakagami02:03.114+1.5736338.5Medium / Soft
12Luca Marini02:03.249+1.7086337.5Medium / missing
Q2 · 13.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Maverick Viñales02:00.864—6345.0Medium / Soft
2Pedro Acosta02:01.192+0.3287347.2Medium / Soft
3Marc Marquez02:01.266+0.4026347.2Medium / Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia02:01.352+0.4887345.0Medium / Soft
5Enea Bastianini02:01.439+0.5755343.9Medium / Soft
6Jorge Martin02:01.511+0.6475347.2Soft / Soft
7Aleix Espargaro02:01.562+0.6984346.1Medium / Soft
8Fabio Di Giannantonio02:01.667+0.8036342.8Medium / Soft
9Franco Morbidelli02:01.737+0.8737342.8Medium / Soft
10Marco Bezzecchi02:02.279+1.4156347.2Medium / Soft
11Jack Miller02:02.297+1.4337343.9Medium / Soft
RetiredAlex Marquez—00.0— / —
Sprint · 13.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales20:27.8251210Medium / Soft2:02.631—8Soft
2Marc Marquez+2.294910Medium / Soft2:02.978+0.28%8Soft
3Jorge Martin+4.399710Medium / Soft2:03.042+0.34%8Soft
4Pedro Acosta+6.480610Medium / Soft2:03.298+0.54%8Soft
5Aleix Espargaro+6.657510Medium / Soft2:03.210+0.47%8Soft
6Enea Bastianini+8.621410Medium / Soft2:03.616+0.80%8Soft
7Jack Miller+9.237310Medium / Soft2:03.427+0.65%7Soft
8Francesco Bagnaia+9.349210Medium / Soft2:03.376+0.61%7Soft
9Raul Fernandez+9.637110Medium / Soft2:03.241+0.50%8Soft
10Franco Morbidelli+9.894010Medium / Soft2:03.427+0.65%8Soft
11Miguel Oliveira+10.364010Medium / Soft2:03.384+0.61%8Soft
12Brad Binder+10.724010Medium / Soft2:03.388+0.62%7Soft
13Marco Bezzecchi+11.549010Medium / Soft2:03.370+0.60%8Soft
14Alex Marquez+15.468010Medium / Soft2:03.682+0.86%8Soft
15Fabio Quartararo+15.574010Medium / Soft2:03.814+0.97%8Soft
16Alex Rins+18.146010Medium / Soft2:03.959+1.08%8Soft
17Luca Marini+22.989010Medium / Soft2:04.558+1.57%8Soft
Out on lap 1Augusto Fernandez00— / ———
Out on lap 1Fabio Di Giannantonio00— / ———
RetiredJoan Mir03Medium / Soft——
RetiredJohann Zarco06Medium / Soft——
Out on lap 1Takaaki Nakagami00— / ———
Warm Up · 14.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Maverick Viñales02:02.341—5336.4Soft / Medium
2Marc Marquez02:02.517+0.1765338.5Medium / Medium
3Raul Fernandez02:02.795+0.4545336.4Soft / Medium
4Jorge Martin02:02.898+0.5575340.6Medium / Soft
5Alex Marquez02:02.919+0.5785340.6Medium / Soft
6Pedro Acosta02:03.071+0.7305346.1Medium / Medium
7Brad Binder02:03.076+0.7355346.1Medium / Medium
8Jack Miller02:03.213+0.8725347.2Medium / Soft
9Franco Morbidelli02:03.218+0.8775342.8Medium / Soft
10Aleix Espargaro02:03.333+0.9925339.6Medium / Medium
11Enea Bastianini02:03.340+0.9995342.8Medium / Medium
12Miguel Oliveira02:03.368+1.0275338.5Soft / Medium
13Marco Bezzecchi02:03.381+1.0405345.0Soft / Soft
14Fabio Di Giannantonio02:03.389+1.0485337.5Soft / Medium
15Francesco Bagnaia02:03.499+1.1585342.8Medium / Soft
16Alex Rins02:03.515+1.1745341.7Medium / Soft
17Takaaki Nakagami02:03.648+1.3075340.6Soft / Soft
18Fabio Quartararo02:03.750+1.4095338.5Medium / Soft
19Augusto Fernandez02:03.786+1.4455340.6Medium / Medium
20Johann Zarco02:03.911+1.5705339.6Medium / Medium
21Joan Mir02:03.975+1.6345341.7Soft / Medium
22Luca Marini02:04.379+2.0385338.5Medium / Soft
Race · 14.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales41:09.5032520Medium / Medium2:03.294—18Medium
2Pedro Acosta+1.7282020Medium / Medium2:03.464+0.14%16Medium
3Enea Bastianini+2.7031620Medium / Soft2:03.621+0.27%18Soft
4Jorge Martin+4.6901320Medium / Soft2:03.532+0.19%15Soft
5Francesco Bagnaia+7.3921120Medium / Soft2:03.759+0.38%15Soft
6Fabio Di Giannantonio+9.9801020Medium / Soft2:03.762+0.38%18Soft
7Aleix Espargaro+12.208920Medium / Soft2:03.839+0.44%18Soft
8Marco Bezzecchi+13.343820Medium / Soft2:03.821+0.43%17Soft
9Brad Binder+14.931720Medium / Soft2:03.852+0.45%17Soft
10Raul Fernandez+16.656620Medium / Medium2:03.892+0.49%17Medium
11Miguel Oliveira+18.542520Medium / Medium2:03.806+0.42%18Medium
12Fabio Quartararo+22.899420Medium / Soft2:04.344+0.85%18Soft
13Jack Miller+24.011320Medium / Soft2:04.683+1.13%17Soft
14Augusto Fernandez+27.652220Medium / Soft2:04.477+0.96%18Soft
15Alex Marquez+32.855120Medium / Soft2:03.885+0.48%17Soft
16Luca Marini+33.529020Medium / Medium2:04.881+1.29%18Medium
RetiredAlex Rins010Medium / Medium2:04.696+1.14%8Medium
RetiredFranco Morbidelli07Medium / Soft2:03.775+0.39%5Soft
RetiredJoan Mir08Medium / Medium2:04.424+0.92%6Medium
RetiredJohann Zarco06Medium / Medium2:04.849+1.26%4Medium
RetiredMarc Marquez010Medium / Soft2:03.534+0.20%8Soft
RetiredTakaaki Nakagami06Medium / Soft2:04.873+1.28%4Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marc Marquez2:03.175*—+0.210Medium3
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.831*+0.656+0.221Medium3
Augusto Fernandez2:03.879*+0.704+0.437Medium3
Jack Miller2:03.891*+0.716+0.105Medium3
Johann Zarco2:04.190*+1.015+0.344Medium4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Maverick Viñales133%66%81%92%6%1
Pedro Acosta221%56%74%89%8%4
Marc Marquez314%48%71%90%7%2
Francesco Bagnaia411%39%65%92%2%8
Enea Bastianini56%26%51%85%8%6
Jorge Martin65%22%47%88%2%3
Aleix Espargaro73%12%29%66%25%5
Fabio Di Giannantonio82%8%23%68%17%—
Franco Morbidelli92%7%19%73%2%10
Marco Bezzecchi101%4%12%58%10%13
Jack Miller111%4%9%52%6%7
Alex Marquez121%2%6%36%15%14
Raul Fernandez130%2%5%34%2%9
Miguel Oliveira140%1%3%25%11%11
Alex Rins150%1%2%17%17%16
Fabio Quartararo160%1%2%13%10%15
Brad Binder170%1%2%9%6%12
Augusto Fernandez180%0%1%6%14%—
Johann Zarco190%0%1%4%14%—
Joan Mir200%0%0%3%20%—
Takaaki Nakagami210%0%1%2%10%—
Luca Marini220%0%0%2%14%17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Maverick Viñales144%74%82%87%13%1
Pedro Acosta210%39%63%82%14%2
Marc Marquez323%60%74%82%17%—
Francesco Bagnaia43%19%38%68%26%5
Enea Bastianini50%7%20%63%20%3
Jorge Martin610%39%60%75%23%4
Aleix Espargaro76%30%51%72%24%7
Fabio Di Giannantonio81%10%29%70%17%6
Franco Morbidelli90%3%12%56%15%—
Marco Bezzecchi100%4%14%59%15%8
Jack Miller110%2%8%47%24%13
Alex Marquez120%1%3%30%25%15
Raul Fernandez131%7%23%65%23%10
Miguel Oliveira141%5%16%59%21%11
Alex Rins150%0%1%14%22%—
Fabio Quartararo160%0%1%16%12%12
Brad Binder170%2%6%45%14%9
Augusto Fernandez180%0%0%4%18%14
Johann Zarco190%0%0%3%18%—
Joan Mir200%0%0%2%27%—
Takaaki Nakagami210%0%0%1%14%—
Luca Marini220%0%0%2%8%16

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Jorge Martin22% → 39%+174% → 10%
Marc Marquez44% → 60%+1615% → 23%
Aleix Espargaro17% → 30%+134% → 6%
Dropping
Enea Bastianini28% → 7%−217% → 0%
Francesco Bagnaia32% → 19%−149% → 3%
Pedro Acosta52% → 39%−1322% → 10%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Maverick Viñales2:02.631—+0.292Soft8
Marc Marquez2:02.978+0.347+0.210Soft8
Jorge Martin2:03.042+0.411+0.457Soft8
Aleix Espargaro2:03.210+0.579+0.209Soft8
Raul Fernandez2:03.241+0.610+0.667Soft8
Pedro Acosta2:03.298+0.667+0.448Soft8
Marco Bezzecchi2:03.370+0.739+0.553Soft8
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.376+0.745+0.221Soft7
Miguel Oliveira2:03.384+0.753+0.193Soft8
Brad Binder2:03.388+0.757+0.327Soft7
Jack Miller2:03.427+0.796+0.105Soft7
Franco Morbidelli2:03.427+0.796+0.512Soft8
Enea Bastianini2:03.616+0.985+0.319Soft8
Alex Marquez2:03.682+1.051+0.356Soft8
Fabio Quartararo2:03.814+1.183+0.275Soft8
Alex Rins2:03.959+1.328+0.217Soft8
Luca Marini2:04.558+1.927+0.308Soft8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100
Position index
14%
Pole wins
62%
Front row on the podium
0.79
Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

22
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
13/20
Laps led by the winner
Alex Rins
3.498 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P5.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Stefan Bradl (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2023 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jack Miller2:03.429—+0.105Soft4
Francesco Bagnaia2:03.448+0.019+0.221Soft4
Alex Rins2:03.595+0.166+0.217Soft18
Luca Marini2:03.688+0.259+0.308Soft18
Fabio Quartararo2:03.767+0.338+0.275Soft17
Miguel Oliveira2:03.860+0.431+0.193Soft18
Maverick Viñales2:03.862+0.433+0.292Soft17
Marco Bezzecchi2:04.127+0.698+0.553missing18
Johann Zarco2:04.213+0.784+0.344Soft17
Takaaki Nakagami2:04.368+0.939+0.359Soft9

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
  • 2023Alex RinsHonda
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2019Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20255/2223%
20246/2227%
20239/2241%
20222/248%
20212/2110%
20194/2218%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.76%+0.008136.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.