Round 5 of 20 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2024

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

10.05 – 12.05.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	41:23.709	25
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.446	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.585	16
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.206	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.053	11
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.480	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.868	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.353	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.392	7
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.442	6
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+24.201	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+26.809	4
13	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+27.426	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+30.026	2
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+30.936	1
16	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+40.000	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:49.694	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.280	9
3	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.174	7
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.798	6
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.698	5
6	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+9.185	4
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.190	3
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.516	2
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+12.257	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+12.699	0
11	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+13.492	0
12	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+15.578	0
13	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+16.439	0
14	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+16.816	0
15	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.969	0
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+19.123	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+23.618	0
18	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.854	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 31% ✓	Jorge Martin · 31% · from P1	0.81 / 0.81	2.1 / 2.1
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 24% ✓	Jorge Martin · 24% · from P1	0.76 / 0.76	2.5 / 2.4
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 30% ✓	Jorge Martin · 30% · from P1	0.79 / 0.76	2.3 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.804	—	+0.221	Soft	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.807	+0.003	+0.319	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:31.820	+0.016	+0.210	Soft	25
Jorge Martin	1:31.862	+0.058	+0.457	Soft	25
Maverick Viñales	1:31.908	+0.104	+0.292	Soft	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.947	+0.143	+0.320	Soft	24
Brad Binder	1:32.055	+0.251	+0.327	Soft	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.091	+0.287	+0.275	Soft	14
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.098	+0.294	+0.209	Soft	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.103	+0.299	+0.193	Soft	14
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.132	+0.328	+0.512	Soft	25
Alex Marquez	1:32.139	+0.335	+0.356	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.161	+0.357	+0.105	Soft	14
Joan Mir	1:32.256	+0.452	+0.562	Soft	12
Alex Rins	1:32.493	+0.689	+0.217	Soft	24
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.625	+0.821	+0.437	Soft	25
Raul Fernandez	1:32.637	+0.833	+0.667	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.694	+0.890	+0.359	Soft	23
Johann Zarco	1:32.737	+0.933	+0.344	Soft	25
Luca Marini	1:33.139	+1.335	+0.308	Soft	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

7/27

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.446 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P22 to P8.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (26 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

2.280 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P13 to P2.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Raul Fernandez (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:05:10	Aleix Espargaro	Jump start	jump start
Sprint	15:05:25	Aleix Espargaro	Long lap	double long lap penalty due to jump start
Sprint	15:07:21	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:07:50	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:09:16	Joan Mir	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:12:16	Aleix Espargaro	Long lap	double long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:12:31	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:53	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:00	Pedro Acosta	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:10	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:45	Alex Rins	Long lap	long lap penalty due to shortcut at T9
Race	14:16:20	Alex Rins	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:21:54	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	long lap penalty due to shortcut at T9
Race	14:23:11	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:25:07	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:26:48	Miguel Oliveira	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:27:51	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:05	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:30:26	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Long lap	long lap penalty due to shortcut at T4
Race	14:32:11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED

Sprint: 8 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	22	13	+9
Marc Marquez	13	8	+5
Enea Bastianini	10	7	+3
Alex Rins	16	21	−5
Franco Morbidelli	9	14	−5
Marco Bezzecchi	5	9	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	13→2	+8.5
Brad Binder	22→8	+8.3
Enea Bastianini	10→4	+4.6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4→6	−1.2
Alex Rins	16→15	−2.5
Aleix Espargaro	6→9	−3.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.36%	−0.003	1	3	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.6 °C

Air

max 22.6 °C

65%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

19 km/h

Wind

gusts 40 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:31.421	—	20	317.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.295	—	6	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	01:31.658	+0.237	21	318.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.898	+0.65%	11	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:31.678	+0.257	20	313.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.259	+1.04%	7	Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	01:31.837	+0.416	19	318.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.595	+0.33%	10	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.852	+0.431	20	315.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.713	+0.45%	5	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	01:31.896	+0.475	20	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.783	+0.53%	12	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.911	+0.490	19	312.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Brad Binder	01:31.942	+0.521	20	316.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.752	+0.50%	8	Medium
9	Marc Marquez	01:31.971	+0.550	21	313.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.769	+0.51%	5	Medium
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.980	+0.559	17	316.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.549	+0.28%	5	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:32.035	+0.614	20	317.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.054	+0.82%	5	Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.070	+0.649	22	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.707	+1.53%	7	Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:32.112	+0.691	21	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.346	+1.14%	6	Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	01:32.221	+0.800	20	312.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.671	+1.49%	11	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.286	+0.865	20	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.809	+1.64%	5	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:32.403	+0.982	19	309.6	Medium / Medium	1:33.104	+0.88%	7	Medium
17	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.433	+1.012	22	312.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.119	+0.89%	18	Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.546	+1.125	17	314.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.700	+0.44%	6	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.585	+1.164	21	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.360	+1.15%	11	Medium
20	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.698	+1.277	21	317.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.627	+1.44%	9	Medium
21	Joan Mir	01:33.008	+1.587	19	310.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.954	+1.80%	4	Medium
22	Luca Marini	01:33.350	+1.929	23	313.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.994	+1.84%	16	Medium

Practice · 10.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:30.388	—	24	316.5	Hard / Soft	1:31.678	+0.10%	6	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.533	+0.145	27	318.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.193	+0.66%	11	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:30.575	+0.187	26	318.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.787	+0.22%	10	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:30.657	+0.269	25	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.590	—	9	Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.683	+0.295	23	314.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:30.699	+0.311	24	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.714	+0.326	22	313.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.763	+0.375	26	313.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.385	+0.87%	6	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.785	+0.397	24	315.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.788	+0.400	26	315.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.034	+0.49%	13	Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:30.798	+0.410	24	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.752	+0.18%	5	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:30.839	+0.451	26	316.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.316	+0.79%	11	Soft
13	Marc Marquez	01:31.067	+0.679	21	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:32.741	+1.26%	5	Soft
14	Alex Rins	01:31.206	+0.818	28	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.780	+1.30%	6	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.219	+0.831	25	317.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.105	+0.56%	6	Soft
16	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.243	+0.855	23	315.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.952	+1.49%	11	Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:31.364	+0.976	19	316.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Joan Mir	01:31.521	+1.133	26	316.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.593	+1.10%	4	Soft
19	Alex Marquez	01:31.530	+1.142	28	313.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.319	+0.80%	8	Soft
20	Johann Zarco	01:31.574	+1.186	25	314.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Luca Marini	01:31.860	+1.472	23	311.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.131	+1.743	27	312.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 11.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.033	—	14	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.669	+0.00%	8	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.105	+0.072	14	315.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.010	+0.38%	5	Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	01:31.236	+0.203	13	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Jorge Martin	01:31.249	+0.216	16	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.667	+0.00%	11	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:31.266	+0.233	10	315.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:31.343	+0.310	15	315.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.872	+0.23%	11	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.386	+0.353	12	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.302	+0.69%	6	Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:31.399	+0.366	15	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.748	+0.09%	5	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:31.403	+0.370	12	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.079	+0.45%	5	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.419	+0.386	16	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.975	+0.34%	11	Soft
11	Pedro Acosta	01:31.427	+0.394	16	319.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.732	+0.07%	6	Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.427	+0.394	14	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.338	+0.73%	5	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.443	+0.410	15	315.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.726	+0.07%	5	Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.466	+0.433	15	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.108	+0.48%	10	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.556	+0.523	15	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.666	—	5	Soft
16	Brad Binder	01:31.678	+0.645	14	316.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.944	+0.30%	4	Soft
17	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.684	+0.651	15	318.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.692	+0.659	15	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.124	+0.50%	6	Soft
19	Joan Mir	01:31.813	+0.780	14	310.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.309	+0.70%	5	Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:32.054	+1.021	14	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.207	+0.59%	5	Soft
21	Johann Zarco	01:32.085	+1.052	15	310.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.311	+0.70%	6	Soft
22	Luca Marini	01:32.775	+1.742	14	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.868	+1.31%	5	Soft

Q1 · 11.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:30.233	—	7	316.5	Hard / Soft
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.478	+0.245	7	318.5	Soft / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:30.586	+0.353	6	317.5	Soft / Soft
4	Raul Fernandez	01:30.676	+0.443	9	318.5	Soft / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:30.891	+0.658	7	310.6	Medium / Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:31.067	+0.834	8	317.5	Soft / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:31.148	+0.915	7	315.5	Medium / Soft
8	Joan Mir	01:31.186	+0.953	7	312.6	Medium / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.274	+1.041	9	312.6	Soft / Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.473	+1.240	5	314.5	Soft / Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:31.837	+1.604	8	315.5	Soft / Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:32.228	+1.995	6	313.5	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 11.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.919	—	6	317.5	Hard / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.111	+0.192	6	316.5	Hard / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.313	+0.394	8	315.5	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.436	+0.517	8	316.5	Hard / Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.553	+0.634	9	320.6	Hard / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.572	+0.653	7	317.5	Soft / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:30.650	+0.731	9	318.5	Soft / Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.686	+0.767	9	314.5	Hard / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.782	+0.863	8	315.5	Hard / Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:30.786	+0.867	7	317.5	Hard / Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:31.007	+1.088	8	314.5	Soft / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.075	+1.156	7	313.5	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 11.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:49.694	12	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.199	+0.05%	11	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+2.280	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.220	+0.08%	11	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	+4.174	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.422	+0.30%	11	Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	+4.798	6	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.426	+0.30%	10	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	+7.698	5	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.575	+0.47%	11	Soft
6	Pedro Acosta	+9.185	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.703	+0.61%	10	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+11.190	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.959	+0.89%	11	Soft
8	Jack Miller	+11.516	2	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.014	+0.95%	11	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	+12.257	1	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.087	+1.03%	11	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	+12.699	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.141	+1.09%	11	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	+13.492	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.079	+1.02%	11	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	+15.578	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.946	+0.87%	9	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+16.439	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.214	+1.17%	10	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+16.816	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.162	+1.11%	10	Soft
15	Brad Binder	+16.969	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.311	+1.27%	10	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+19.123	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.485	+1.46%	9	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	+23.618	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.877	+1.89%	11	Soft
18	Luca Marini	+27.854	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.070	+2.11%	9	Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		0	6	Hard / Soft	1:31.864	+0.78%	4	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	4	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	9	Hard / Soft	1:31.151	—	7	Soft

Warm Up · 12.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:31.520	—	6	319.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:31.690	+0.170	7	315.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.763	+0.243	7	317.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.542	+0.31%	5	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:31.764	+0.244	6	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.777	+0.257	7	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.366	+0.12%	5	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.778	+0.258	7	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.579	+0.35%	5	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:31.818	+0.298	7	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.500	+0.26%	5	Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:31.837	+0.317	7	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.256	—	5	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.894	+0.374	7	323.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.890	+1.77%	5	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.910	+0.390	7	315.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.839	+0.63%	5	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.953	+0.433	6	315.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:32.024	+0.504	7	318.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.827	+0.62%	5	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	01:32.073	+0.553	5	312.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.172	+0.652	6	317.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.210	+0.690	6	311.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Jorge Martin	01:32.274	+0.754	6	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:32.301	+0.781	7	312.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.614	+1.47%	5	Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	01:32.562	+1.042	6	312.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.602	+1.082	7	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.246	+1.07%	5	Soft
20	Joan Mir	01:32.770	+1.250	7	313.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.300	+1.13%	4	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:32.785	+1.265	6	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:32.832	+1.312	7	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.883	+1.76%	4	Soft

Race · 12.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	41:23.709	25	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.862	+0.06%	25	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+0.446	20	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.820	+0.02%	25	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+0.585	16	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.804	—	24	Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	+2.206	13	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.807	+0.00%	24	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	+4.053	11	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.908	+0.11%	25	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+9.480	10	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.947	+0.16%	24	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	+9.868	9	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.132	+0.36%	25	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+10.353	8	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.055	+0.27%	25	Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	+11.392	7	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.098	+0.32%	24	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	+13.442	6	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.139	+0.37%	25	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+24.201	5	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.637	+0.91%	25	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	+26.809	4	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.737	+1.02%	25	Soft
13	Augusto Fernandez	+27.426	3	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.625	+0.89%	25	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+30.026	2	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.694	+0.97%	23	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+30.936	1	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.493	+0.75%	24	Soft
16	Luca Marini	+40.000	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.139	+1.45%	24	Soft
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	16	Hard / Soft	1:32.091	+0.31%	14	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	16	Hard / Soft	1:32.161	+0.39%	14	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	14	Hard / Soft	1:32.256	+0.49%	12	Soft
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	16	Hard / Soft	1:32.103	+0.33%	14	Soft
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:32.918	—	+0.344	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Enea Bastianini	57%	1 ✓
2	Marc Marquez	41%	3
3	Raul Fernandez	30%	4
4	Miguel Oliveira	21%	2 ✓
5	Alex Marquez	19%	7
6	Augusto Fernandez	10%	10
7	Alex Rins	8%	6
8	Brad Binder	4%	12
9	Joan Mir	3%	8
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	9
11	Johann Zarco	4%	5
12	Luca Marini	1%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	34%	63%	87%	2
2	Jorge Martin	23%	51%	80%	1
3	Maverick Viñales	14%	47%	77%	3
4	Pedro Acosta	5%	33%	68%	7
5	Aleix Espargaro	5%	26%	53%	6
6	Jack Miller	7%	23%	56%	11
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	12%	40%	4
8	Enea Bastianini	3%	13%	38%	10
9	Franco Morbidelli	3%	9%	29%	9
10	Fabio Quartararo	2%	9%	25%	8
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	10%	29%	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	31%	66%	84%	96%	3%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	2	20%	55%	75%	92%	6%	—
Maverick Viñales	3	13%	43%	66%	87%	10%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	9%	32%	53%	75%	20%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	5	7%	27%	50%	81%	13%	—
Aleix Espargaro	6	4%	16%	33%	64%	27%	5
Pedro Acosta	7	4%	17%	36%	80%	7%	6
Fabio Quartararo	8	3%	11%	27%	74%	10%	10
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	8%	21%	73%	3%	12
Enea Bastianini	10	1%	5%	14%	58%	13%	4
Jack Miller	11	1%	5%	11%	54%	6%	8
Miguel Oliveira	12	1%	4%	8%	42%	11%	11
Marc Marquez	13	1%	3%	6%	35%	7%	2
Raul Fernandez	14	1%	2%	5%	29%	3%	9
Johann Zarco	15	0%	1%	3%	19%	16%	13
Alex Rins	16	0%	1%	3%	14%	15%	—
Alex Marquez	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	18%	14
Joan Mir	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	23%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	1%	1%	5%	13%	16
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	16%	17
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	17%	18
Brad Binder	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	30%	59%	69%	75%	24%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	2	22%	52%	66%	73%	25%	3
Maverick Viñales	3	15%	48%	69%	85%	13%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	3%	17%	37%	77%	16%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	5	20%	55%	73%	84%	14%	—
Aleix Espargaro	6	4%	21%	41%	71%	24%	9
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	16%	40%	81%	12%	—
Fabio Quartararo	8	0%	2%	10%	55%	12%	—
Franco Morbidelli	9	1%	8%	23%	70%	16%	7
Enea Bastianini	10	2%	11%	29%	72%	19%	4
Jack Miller	11	0%	1%	7%	46%	25%	—
Miguel Oliveira	12	0%	1%	5%	41%	20%	—
Marc Marquez	13	1%	9%	25%	69%	17%	2
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	0%	2%	29%	22%	11
Johann Zarco	15	0%	0%	1%	16%	20%	12
Alex Rins	16	0%	1%	4%	34%	23%	15
Alex Marquez	17	0%	0%	0%	11%	24%	10
Joan Mir	18	0%	0%	0%	3%	28%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	14
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	13
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	16
Brad Binder	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	8

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi	31% → 55%	+24	9% → 20%
Jorge Martin	50% → 59%	+9	24% → 30%
Francesco Bagnaia	45% → 52%	+6	19% → 22%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	37% → 17%	−21	12% → 3%
Fabio Quartararo	15% → 2%	−13	4% → 0%
Pedro Acosta	21% → 16%	−5	5% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.151	—	+0.553	Soft	7
Jorge Martin	1:31.199	+0.048	+0.457	Soft	11
Marc Marquez	1:31.220	+0.069	+0.210	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.422	+0.271	+0.292	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:31.426	+0.275	+0.319	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.575	+0.424	+0.209	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:31.703	+0.552	+0.448	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:31.864	+0.713	+0.217	Soft	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.946	+0.795	+0.512	Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.959	+0.808	+0.320	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:32.014	+0.863	+0.105	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.079	+0.928	+0.193	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:32.087	+0.936	+0.667	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.141	+0.990	+0.275	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:32.162	+1.011	+0.356	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:32.214	+1.063	+0.344	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:32.311	+1.160	+0.327	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.485	+1.334	+0.359	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.877	+1.726	+0.437	Soft	11
Luca Marini	1:33.070	+1.919	+0.308	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.46%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.52%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%	Pol Espargaro +0.45%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Augusto Fernandez +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura	Jorge Martin +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Raul Fernandez +0.22%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%	Enea Bastianini +0.33%	Ai Ogura +0.33%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fermin Aldeguer +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Johann Zarco +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.37%	Pedro Acosta +0.46%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%
S2	Johann Zarco	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Alex Rins +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S3	Jack Miller +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Joan Mir +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.68%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Jack Miller +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jack Miller +0.11%	Pol Espargaro +0.28%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Joan Mir +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.10%	Pol Espargaro +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.27%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.48%	Andrea Iannone +0.55%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Andrea Iannone +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.49%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Andrea Iannone +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Valentino Rossi +0.11%	Andrea Iannone +0.16%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	92	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	75	−17
3	Enea Bastianini	70	−22
4	Pedro Acosta	69	−23
5	Maverick Viñales	63	−29
6	Marc Marquez	60	−32

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

17/27

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

4.256 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jonas Folger, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Takaaki Nakagami (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.251	—	+0.553	Soft	25
Jorge Martin	1:32.338	+0.087	+0.457	Soft	22
Johann Zarco	1:32.383	+0.132	+0.344	Soft	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.402	+0.151	+0.437	Soft	24
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.447	+0.196	+0.209	Soft	25
Marc Marquez	1:32.478	+0.227	+0.210	Soft	22
Brad Binder	1:32.559	+0.308	+0.327	Soft	24
Jack Miller	1:32.630	+0.379	+0.105	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:32.674	+0.423	+0.217	Soft	12
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.825	+0.574	+0.359	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.46%	−0.009	1	3	7.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.