MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 5 of 20 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2024

Le Mans France

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969
10.05 – 12.05.2024
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing41:23.70925
2Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+0.44620
3Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+0.58516
4Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+2.20613
5Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+4.05311
6Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+9.48010
7Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+9.8689
8Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+10.3538
9Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+11.3927
10Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+13.4426
11Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+24.2015
12Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+26.8094
13Augusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+27.4263
14Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+30.0262
15Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+30.9361
16Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+40.0000
DNFFabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFJack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFMarco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFMiguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse RacingRetired0
DNFPedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3Retired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing19:49.69412
2Marc MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+2.2809
3Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+4.1747
4Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+4.7986
5Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+7.6985
6Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+9.1854
7Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+11.1903
8Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+11.5162
9Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse Racing+12.2571
10Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+12.6990
11Miguel OliveiraApriliaTrackhouse Racing+13.4920
12Franco MorbidelliDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+15.5780
13Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+16.4390
14Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+16.8160
15Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+16.9690
16Takaaki NakagamiHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+19.1230
17Augusto FernandezKTMRed Bull GASGAS Tech3+23.6180
18Luca MariniHondaRepsol Honda Team+27.8540
DNFAlex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFMarco BezzecchiDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintJorge Martin · 31% ✓Jorge Martin · 31% · from P10.81 / 0.812.1 / 2.1
Race (after the grid)Jorge Martin · 24% ✓Jorge Martin · 24% · from P10.76 / 0.762.5 / 2.4
Race (after the sprint)Jorge Martin · 30% ✓Jorge Martin · 30% · from P10.79 / 0.762.3 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.804—+0.221Soft24
Enea Bastianini1:31.807+0.003+0.319Soft24
Marc Marquez1:31.820+0.016+0.210Soft25
Jorge Martin1:31.862+0.058+0.457Soft25
Maverick Viñales1:31.908+0.104+0.292Soft25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.947+0.143+0.320Soft24
Brad Binder1:32.055+0.251+0.327Soft25
Fabio Quartararo1:32.091+0.287+0.275Soft14
Aleix Espargaro1:32.098+0.294+0.209Soft24
Miguel Oliveira1:32.103+0.299+0.193Soft14
Franco Morbidelli1:32.132+0.328+0.512Soft25
Alex Marquez1:32.139+0.335+0.356Soft25
Jack Miller1:32.161+0.357+0.105Soft14
Joan Mir1:32.256+0.452+0.562Soft12
Alex Rins1:32.493+0.689+0.217Soft24
Augusto Fernandez1:32.625+0.821+0.437Soft25
Raul Fernandez1:32.637+0.833+0.667Soft25
Takaaki Nakagami1:32.694+0.890+0.359Soft23
Johann Zarco1:32.737+0.933+0.344Soft25
Luca Marini1:33.139+1.335+0.308Soft24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

40
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
7/27
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
0.446 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P22 to P8.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (26 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

27
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
13/13
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
2.280 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P13 to P2.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Raul Fernandez (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:05:10Aleix EspargaroJump startjump start
Sprint15:05:25Aleix EspargaroLong lapdouble long lap penalty due to jump start
Sprint15:07:21Francesco BagnaiaRetiredentered pits and retired
Sprint15:07:50Joan MirCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:09:16Joan MirRetiredentered pits and retired
Sprint15:12:16Aleix EspargaroLong lapdouble long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint15:12:31Alex RinsCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:16:53Marco BezzecchiCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:06:00Pedro AcostaCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:07:10Marco BezzecchiCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:14:45Alex RinsLong laplong lap penalty due to shortcut at T9
Race14:16:20Alex RinsLong laplong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race14:21:54Enea BastianiniLong laplong lap penalty due to shortcut at T9
Race14:23:11Enea BastianiniLong laplong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race14:25:07Joan MirCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:26:48Miguel OliveiraRetiredentered pits and retired
Race14:27:51Fabio QuartararoCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:28:05Jack MillerCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:30:26Fabio Di GiannantonioLong laplong lap penalty due to shortcut at T4
Race14:32:11Fabio Di GiannantonioLong laplong lap penalty - COMPLETED

Sprint: 8 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.36%−0.003138.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
21.6 °C
Air
max 22.6 °C
65%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
19 km/h
Wind
gusts 40 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin01:31.421—20317.5Medium / Soft1:32.295—6Medium
2Pedro Acosta01:31.658+0.23721318.5Medium / Medium1:32.898+0.65%11Medium
3Maverick Viñales01:31.678+0.25720313.5Soft / Medium1:33.259+1.04%7Medium
4Enea Bastianini01:31.837+0.41619318.5Soft / Medium1:32.595+0.33%10Medium
5Francesco Bagnaia01:31.852+0.43120315.5Soft / Medium1:32.713+0.45%5Medium
6Alex Marquez01:31.896+0.47520311.6Soft / Soft1:32.783+0.53%12Medium
7Aleix Espargaro01:31.911+0.49019312.6Medium / Medium——
8Brad Binder01:31.942+0.52120316.5Medium / Medium1:32.752+0.50%8Medium
9Marc Marquez01:31.971+0.55021313.5Soft / Medium1:32.769+0.51%5Medium
10Marco Bezzecchi01:31.980+0.55917316.5Soft / Medium1:32.549+0.28%5Medium
11Jack Miller01:32.035+0.61420317.5Medium / Medium1:33.054+0.82%5Medium
12Franco Morbidelli01:32.070+0.64922311.6Soft / Medium1:33.707+1.53%7Medium
13Alex Rins01:32.112+0.69121316.5Soft / Soft1:33.346+1.14%6Medium
14Raul Fernandez01:32.221+0.80020312.6Soft / Medium1:33.671+1.49%11Medium
15Miguel Oliveira01:32.286+0.86520311.6Soft / Medium1:33.809+1.64%5Medium
16Johann Zarco01:32.403+0.98219309.6Medium / Medium1:33.104+0.88%7Medium
17Augusto Fernandez01:32.433+1.01222312.6Soft / Medium1:33.119+0.89%18Medium
18Fabio Di Giannantonio01:32.546+1.12517314.5Soft / Medium1:32.700+0.44%6Medium
19Takaaki Nakagami01:32.585+1.16421311.6Soft / Medium1:33.360+1.15%11Medium
20Fabio Quartararo01:32.698+1.27721317.5Soft / Medium1:33.627+1.44%9Medium
21Joan Mir01:33.008+1.58719310.6Soft / Medium1:33.954+1.80%4Medium
22Luca Marini01:33.350+1.92923313.5Soft / Medium1:33.994+1.84%16Medium
Practice · 10.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin01:30.388—24316.5Hard / Soft1:31.678+0.10%6Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:30.533+0.14527318.5Hard / Soft1:32.193+0.66%11Soft
3Pedro Acosta01:30.575+0.18726318.5Soft / Soft1:31.787+0.22%10Soft
4Maverick Viñales01:30.657+0.26925311.6Soft / Soft1:31.590—9Soft
5Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.683+0.29523314.5Hard / Soft——
6Jack Miller01:30.699+0.31124316.5Soft / Soft——
7Aleix Espargaro01:30.714+0.32622313.5Hard / Soft——
8Franco Morbidelli01:30.763+0.37526313.5Hard / Soft1:32.385+0.87%6Soft
9Marco Bezzecchi01:30.785+0.39724315.5Medium / Soft——
10Fabio Quartararo01:30.788+0.40026315.5Hard / Soft1:32.034+0.49%13Soft
11Enea Bastianini01:30.798+0.41024313.5Soft / Soft1:31.752+0.18%5Soft
12Raul Fernandez01:30.839+0.45126316.5Hard / Soft1:32.316+0.79%11Soft
13Marc Marquez01:31.067+0.67921311.6Hard / Soft1:32.741+1.26%5Soft
14Alex Rins01:31.206+0.81828314.5Medium / Soft1:32.780+1.30%6Soft
15Miguel Oliveira01:31.219+0.83125317.5Hard / Soft1:32.105+0.56%6Soft
16Augusto Fernandez01:31.243+0.85523315.5Soft / Soft1:32.952+1.49%11Soft
17Brad Binder01:31.364+0.97619316.5Hard / Soft——
18Joan Mir01:31.521+1.13326316.5Hard / Soft1:32.593+1.10%4Soft
19Alex Marquez01:31.530+1.14228313.5Hard / Soft1:32.319+0.80%8Soft
20Johann Zarco01:31.574+1.18625314.5Hard / Soft——
21Luca Marini01:31.860+1.47223311.6Soft / Soft——
22Takaaki Nakagami01:32.131+1.74327312.6Medium / Soft——
FP2 · 11.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales01:31.033—14314.5Soft / Soft1:31.669+0.00%8Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:31.105+0.07214315.5Medium / Soft1:32.010+0.38%5Soft
3Enea Bastianini01:31.236+0.20313316.5Medium / Soft——
4Jorge Martin01:31.249+0.21616316.5Soft / Soft1:31.667+0.00%11Soft
5Alex Marquez01:31.266+0.23310315.5Medium / Soft——
6Marc Marquez01:31.343+0.31015315.5Medium / Soft1:31.872+0.23%11Soft
7Aleix Espargaro01:31.386+0.35312314.5Soft / Soft1:32.302+0.69%6Soft
8Jack Miller01:31.399+0.36615316.5Soft / Soft1:31.748+0.09%5Soft
9Raul Fernandez01:31.403+0.37012311.6Soft / Soft1:32.079+0.45%5Soft
10Franco Morbidelli01:31.419+0.38616313.5Soft / Soft1:31.975+0.34%11Soft
11Pedro Acosta01:31.427+0.39416319.6Soft / Soft1:31.732+0.07%6Soft
12Augusto Fernandez01:31.427+0.39414316.5Soft / Soft1:32.338+0.73%5Soft
13Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.443+0.41015315.5Medium / Soft1:31.726+0.07%5Soft
14Fabio Quartararo01:31.466+0.43315314.5Medium / Soft1:32.108+0.48%10Soft
15Miguel Oliveira01:31.556+0.52315312.6Soft / Soft1:31.666—5Soft
16Brad Binder01:31.678+0.64514316.5Medium / Soft1:31.944+0.30%4Soft
17Marco Bezzecchi01:31.684+0.65115318.5Soft / Soft——
18Takaaki Nakagami01:31.692+0.65915313.5Soft / Soft1:32.124+0.50%6Soft
19Joan Mir01:31.813+0.78014310.6Medium / Soft1:32.309+0.70%5Soft
20Alex Rins01:32.054+1.02114316.5Soft / Soft1:32.207+0.59%5Soft
21Johann Zarco01:32.085+1.05215310.6Medium / Soft1:32.311+0.70%6Soft
22Luca Marini01:32.775+1.74214313.5Soft / Soft1:32.868+1.31%5Soft
Q1 · 11.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Enea Bastianini01:30.233—7316.5Hard / Soft
2Miguel Oliveira01:30.478+0.2457318.5Soft / Soft
3Marc Marquez01:30.586+0.3536317.5Soft / Soft
4Raul Fernandez01:30.676+0.4439318.5Soft / Soft
5Johann Zarco01:30.891+0.6587310.6Medium / Soft
6Alex Rins01:31.067+0.8348317.5Soft / Soft
7Alex Marquez01:31.148+0.9157315.5Medium / Soft
8Joan Mir01:31.186+0.9537312.6Medium / Soft
9Takaaki Nakagami01:31.274+1.0419312.6Soft / Soft
10Augusto Fernandez01:31.473+1.2405314.5Soft / Soft
11Luca Marini01:31.837+1.6048315.5Soft / Soft
12Brad Binder01:32.228+1.9956313.5Soft / Soft
Q2 · 11.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Jorge Martin01:29.919—6317.5Hard / Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:30.111+0.1926316.5Hard / Soft
3Maverick Viñales01:30.313+0.3948315.5Hard / Soft
4Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.436+0.5178316.5Hard / Soft
5Marco Bezzecchi01:30.553+0.6349320.6Hard / Soft
6Aleix Espargaro01:30.572+0.6537317.5Soft / Soft
7Pedro Acosta01:30.650+0.7319318.5Soft / Soft
8Fabio Quartararo01:30.686+0.7679314.5Hard / Soft
9Franco Morbidelli01:30.782+0.8638315.5Hard / Soft
10Enea Bastianini01:30.786+0.8677317.5Hard / Soft
11Jack Miller01:31.007+1.0888314.5Soft / Soft
12Miguel Oliveira01:31.075+1.1567313.5Soft / Soft
Sprint · 11.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin19:49.6941213Hard / Soft1:31.199+0.05%11Soft
2Marc Marquez+2.280913Hard / Soft1:31.220+0.08%11Soft
3Maverick Viñales+4.174713Hard / Soft1:31.422+0.30%11Soft
4Enea Bastianini+4.798613Hard / Soft1:31.426+0.30%10Soft
5Aleix Espargaro+7.698513Hard / Soft1:31.575+0.47%11Soft
6Pedro Acosta+9.185413Hard / Soft1:31.703+0.61%10Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio+11.190313Hard / Soft1:31.959+0.89%11Soft
8Jack Miller+11.516213Soft / Soft1:32.014+0.95%11Soft
9Raul Fernandez+12.257113Hard / Soft1:32.087+1.03%11Soft
10Fabio Quartararo+12.699013Hard / Soft1:32.141+1.09%11Soft
11Miguel Oliveira+13.492013Hard / Soft1:32.079+1.02%11Soft
12Franco Morbidelli+15.578013Hard / Soft1:31.946+0.87%9Soft
13Johann Zarco+16.439013Hard / Soft1:32.214+1.17%10Soft
14Alex Marquez+16.816013Hard / Soft1:32.162+1.11%10Soft
15Brad Binder+16.969013Hard / Soft1:32.311+1.27%10Soft
16Takaaki Nakagami+19.123013Hard / Soft1:32.485+1.46%9Soft
17Augusto Fernandez+23.618013Hard / Soft1:32.877+1.89%11Soft
18Luca Marini+27.854013Hard / Soft1:33.070+2.11%9Soft
RetiredAlex Rins06Hard / Soft1:31.864+0.78%4Soft
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia03Hard / Soft——
RetiredJoan Mir04Hard / Soft——
RetiredMarco Bezzecchi09Hard / Soft1:31.151—7Soft
Warm Up · 12.05 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Pedro Acosta01:31.520—6319.6Soft / Soft——
2Jack Miller01:31.690+0.1707315.5Soft / Soft——
3Fabio Quartararo01:31.763+0.2437317.5Medium / Soft1:32.542+0.31%5Soft
4Marc Marquez01:31.764+0.2446316.5Soft / Soft——
5Franco Morbidelli01:31.777+0.2577314.5Soft / Soft1:32.366+0.12%5Soft
6Francesco Bagnaia01:31.778+0.2587314.5Medium / Soft1:32.579+0.35%5Soft
7Alex Marquez01:31.818+0.2987314.5Medium / Soft1:32.500+0.26%5Soft
8Brad Binder01:31.837+0.3177316.5Soft / Soft1:32.256—5Soft
9Marco Bezzecchi01:31.894+0.3747323.7Soft / Soft1:33.890+1.77%5Soft
10Miguel Oliveira01:31.910+0.3907315.5Soft / Soft1:32.839+0.63%5Soft
11Aleix Espargaro01:31.953+0.4336315.5Soft / Soft——
12Enea Bastianini01:32.024+0.5047318.5Medium / Soft1:32.827+0.62%5Soft
13Maverick Viñales01:32.073+0.5535312.6Soft / Soft——
14Fabio Di Giannantonio01:32.172+0.6526317.5Soft / Soft——
15Augusto Fernandez01:32.210+0.6906311.6Soft / Soft——
16Jorge Martin01:32.274+0.7546316.5Soft / Soft——
17Johann Zarco01:32.301+0.7817312.6Medium / Soft1:33.614+1.47%5Soft
18Raul Fernandez01:32.562+1.0426312.6Soft / Soft——
19Takaaki Nakagami01:32.602+1.0827317.5Soft / Soft1:33.246+1.07%5Soft
20Joan Mir01:32.770+1.2507313.5Medium / Soft1:33.300+1.13%4Soft
21Alex Rins01:32.785+1.2656316.5Soft / Soft——
22Luca Marini01:32.832+1.3127316.5Soft / Soft1:33.883+1.76%4Soft
Race · 12.05
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin41:23.7092527Hard / Soft1:31.862+0.06%25Soft
2Marc Marquez+0.4462027Hard / Soft1:31.820+0.02%25Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia+0.5851627Hard / Soft1:31.804—24Soft
4Enea Bastianini+2.2061327Hard / Soft1:31.807+0.00%24Soft
5Maverick Viñales+4.0531127Hard / Soft1:31.908+0.11%25Soft
6Fabio Di Giannantonio+9.4801027Hard / Soft1:31.947+0.16%24Soft
7Franco Morbidelli+9.868927Hard / Soft1:32.132+0.36%25Soft
8Brad Binder+10.353827Hard / Soft1:32.055+0.27%25Soft
9Aleix Espargaro+11.392727Hard / Soft1:32.098+0.32%24Soft
10Alex Marquez+13.442627Hard / Soft1:32.139+0.37%25Soft
11Raul Fernandez+24.201527Hard / Soft1:32.637+0.91%25Soft
12Johann Zarco+26.809427Hard / Soft1:32.737+1.02%25Soft
13Augusto Fernandez+27.426327Soft / Soft1:32.625+0.89%25Soft
14Takaaki Nakagami+30.026227Hard / Soft1:32.694+0.97%23Soft
15Alex Rins+30.936127Hard / Soft1:32.493+0.75%24Soft
16Luca Marini+40.000027Hard / Soft1:33.139+1.45%24Soft
RetiredFabio Quartararo016Hard / Soft1:32.091+0.31%14Soft
RetiredJack Miller016Hard / Soft1:32.161+0.39%14Soft
RetiredJoan Mir014Hard / Soft1:32.256+0.49%12Soft
RetiredMarco Bezzecchi03Hard / Soft——
RetiredMiguel Oliveira016Hard / Soft1:32.103+0.33%14Soft
RetiredPedro Acosta02Hard / Soft——

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Johann Zarco1:32.918—+0.344Medium5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Pole and front row

C21
Pred.RiderP(pole)P(front row)P(top 6)Actual in Q2
1Francesco Bagnaia34%63%87%2
2Jorge Martin23%51%80%1
3Maverick Viñales14%47%77%3
4Pedro Acosta5%33%68%7
5Aleix Espargaro5%26%53%6
6Jack Miller7%23%56%11
7Fabio Di Giannantonio2%12%40%4
8Enea Bastianini3%13%38%10
9Franco Morbidelli3%9%29%9
10Fabio Quartararo2%9%25%8
11Marco Bezzecchi3%10%29%5
12Miguel Oliveira1%4%20%12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Martin131%66%84%96%3%1
Francesco Bagnaia220%55%75%92%6%—
Maverick Viñales313%43%66%87%10%3
Fabio Di Giannantonio49%32%53%75%20%7
Marco Bezzecchi57%27%50%81%13%—
Aleix Espargaro64%16%33%64%27%5
Pedro Acosta74%17%36%80%7%6
Fabio Quartararo83%11%27%74%10%10
Franco Morbidelli92%8%21%73%3%12
Enea Bastianini101%5%14%58%13%4
Jack Miller111%5%11%54%6%8
Miguel Oliveira121%4%8%42%11%11
Marc Marquez131%3%6%35%7%2
Raul Fernandez141%2%5%29%3%9
Johann Zarco150%1%3%19%16%13
Alex Rins160%1%3%14%15%—
Alex Marquez170%1%2%10%18%14
Joan Mir180%0%1%6%23%—
Takaaki Nakagami190%1%1%5%13%16
Augusto Fernandez200%0%1%4%16%17
Luca Marini210%0%1%3%17%18
Brad Binder220%0%0%2%10%15

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Martin130%59%69%75%24%1
Francesco Bagnaia222%52%66%73%25%3
Maverick Viñales315%48%69%85%13%5
Fabio Di Giannantonio43%17%37%77%16%6
Marco Bezzecchi520%55%73%84%14%—
Aleix Espargaro64%21%41%71%24%9
Pedro Acosta73%16%40%81%12%—
Fabio Quartararo80%2%10%55%12%—
Franco Morbidelli91%8%23%70%16%7
Enea Bastianini102%11%29%72%19%4
Jack Miller110%1%7%46%25%—
Miguel Oliveira120%1%5%41%20%—
Marc Marquez131%9%25%69%17%2
Raul Fernandez140%0%2%29%22%11
Johann Zarco150%0%1%16%20%12
Alex Rins160%1%4%34%23%15
Alex Marquez170%0%0%11%24%10
Joan Mir180%0%0%3%28%—
Takaaki Nakagami190%0%0%4%14%14
Augusto Fernandez200%0%0%2%21%13
Luca Marini210%0%0%1%8%16
Brad Binder220%0%0%2%14%8

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi31% → 55%+249% → 20%
Jorge Martin50% → 59%+924% → 30%
Francesco Bagnaia45% → 52%+619% → 22%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio37% → 17%−2112% → 3%
Fabio Quartararo15% → 2%−134% → 0%
Pedro Acosta21% → 16%−55% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.151—+0.553Soft7
Jorge Martin1:31.199+0.048+0.457Soft11
Marc Marquez1:31.220+0.069+0.210Soft11
Maverick Viñales1:31.422+0.271+0.292Soft11
Enea Bastianini1:31.426+0.275+0.319Soft10
Aleix Espargaro1:31.575+0.424+0.209Soft11
Pedro Acosta1:31.703+0.552+0.448Soft10
Alex Rins1:31.864+0.713+0.217Soft4
Franco Morbidelli1:31.946+0.795+0.512Soft9
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.959+0.808+0.320Soft11
Jack Miller1:32.014+0.863+0.105Soft11
Miguel Oliveira1:32.079+0.928+0.193Soft11
Raul Fernandez1:32.087+0.936+0.667Soft11
Fabio Quartararo1:32.141+0.990+0.275Soft11
Alex Marquez1:32.162+1.011+0.356Soft10
Johann Zarco1:32.214+1.063+0.344Soft10
Brad Binder1:32.311+1.160+0.327Soft10
Takaaki Nakagami1:32.485+1.334+0.359Soft9
Augusto Fernandez1:32.877+1.726+0.437Soft11
Luca Marini1:33.070+1.919+0.308Soft9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BastianiniS2 · BagnaiaS3 · MartinS4 · Martin

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.69
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

47
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
17/27
Laps led by the winner
Marco Bezzecchi
4.256 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jonas Folger, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Takaaki Nakagami (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2023 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marco Bezzecchi1:32.251—+0.553Soft25
Jorge Martin1:32.338+0.087+0.457Soft22
Johann Zarco1:32.383+0.132+0.344Soft25
Augusto Fernandez1:32.402+0.151+0.437Soft24
Aleix Espargaro1:32.447+0.196+0.209Soft25
Marc Marquez1:32.478+0.227+0.210Soft22
Brad Binder1:32.559+0.308+0.327Soft24
Jack Miller1:32.630+0.379+0.105Soft22
Alex Rins1:32.674+0.423+0.217Soft12
Takaaki Nakagami1:32.825+0.574+0.359Soft25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Jorge MartinAprilia
  • 2025Johann ZarcoHonda
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Jack MillerDucati
  • 2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2124%
20256/2227%
20246/2227%
20238/2138%
20227/2429%
20216/2227%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft100%+0.46%−0.009137.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.