Round 7 of 20 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2024

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

31.05 – 02.06.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:51.385	25
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.799	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.924	16
4	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+2.064	13
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+7.501	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.890	10
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.076	9
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.683	8
9	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.535	7
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.901	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.182	5
12	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+20.307	4
13	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+20.346	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+23.292	2
15	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+23.613	1
16	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+28.417	0
17	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+28.778	0
18	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+30.622	0
19	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+31.457	0
20	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+32.310	0
21	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+46.724	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:30.251	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.469	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+4.147	7
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.421	6
5	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.693	5
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.271	4
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.571	3
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.846	2
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.984	1
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+10.085	0
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.199	0
12	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.988	0
13	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.137	0
14	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.259	0
15	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+18.309	0
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+19.374	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+23.060	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+24.596	0
19	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.587	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 30%	Francesco Bagnaia · 7% · from P5	0.90 / 0.90	2.3 / 2.3
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Francesco Bagnaia · 7% · from P5	0.87 / 0.87	2.7 / 2.8
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 35%	Francesco Bagnaia · 14% · from P5	0.92 / 0.87	2.5 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:46.322	—	+0.221	Soft	21
Jorge Martin	1:46.385	+0.063	+0.457	Soft	21
Enea Bastianini	1:46.390	+0.068	+0.319	Soft	21
Marc Marquez	1:46.408	+0.086	+0.210	Soft	21
Pedro Acosta	1:46.663	+0.341	+0.448	Soft	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:46.673	+0.351	+0.320	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:46.738	+0.416	+0.292	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.771	+0.449	+0.512	Soft	21
Alex Marquez	1:46.866	+0.544	+0.356	Soft	21
Brad Binder	1:46.980	+0.658	+0.327	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.995	+0.673	+0.209	Soft	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.073	+0.751	+0.553	Soft	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.104	+0.782	+0.193	Soft	21
Raul Fernandez	1:47.144	+0.822	+0.667	Soft	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.371	+1.049	+0.359	Soft	7
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.387	+1.065	+0.275	Soft	21
Jack Miller	1:47.392	+1.070	+0.105	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:47.398	+1.076	+0.217	Soft	21
Pol Espargaro	1:47.416	+1.094	+0.406	Soft	21
Joan Mir	1:47.437	+1.115	+0.562	Soft	4
Luca Marini	1:47.593	+1.271	+0.308	Soft	21
Johann Zarco	1:47.631	+1.309	+0.344	Soft	21
Lorenzo Savadori	1:47.979	+1.657	+0.781	Soft	19

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.799 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P14 to P7.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

11/11

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.469 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P21 to P14.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Pol Espargaro (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:05:42	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:42	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:06:29	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:08:33	Enea Bastianini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:12:01	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:15:23	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:53	Augusto Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:13:46	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:20	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #1

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	19	13	+6
Francesco Bagnaia	5	1	+4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	10	+4
Maverick Viñales	2	6	−4
Miguel Oliveira	11	15	−4
Joan Mir	17	20	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	5→1	+4.4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14→7	+4.2
Enea Bastianini	4→2	+2.8
Johann Zarco	18→19	−5.2
Fabio Quartararo	15→18	−6.2
Alex Rins	10→15	−6.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	96%	+0.74%	+0.032	1	3	11.2
Medium	4%	+0.39%	+0.055	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.0 °C

Air

max 22.3 °C

50%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 33 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 31.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:46.140	—	19	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.328	+0.188	16	356.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.428	+0.288	19	354.0	Soft / Soft	1:48.084	+0.79%	5	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:46.459	+0.319	17	362.4	Soft / Medium	1:48.152	+0.85%	5	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:46.587	+0.447	17	355.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:46.587	+0.447	20	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.390	+2.01%	6	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.590	+0.450	18	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.657	+0.517	16	357.6	Soft / Medium	1:48.166	+0.87%	5	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:46.719	+0.579	15	361.2	Soft / Medium	1:47.237	—	7	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	01:46.816	+0.676	19	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:47.447	+0.20%	5	Medium
11	Raul Fernandez	01:46.911	+0.771	16	352.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:47.016	+0.876	19	358.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.108	+0.968	20	356.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:47.116	+0.976	19	356.4	Soft / Medium	1:47.926	+0.64%	12	Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	01:47.133	+0.993	16	363.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.197	+1.057	17	351.7	Soft / Medium	1:47.839	+0.56%	5	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.291	+1.151	18	351.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Enea Bastianini	01:47.296	+1.156	19	355.2	Soft / Medium	1:47.717	+0.45%	14	Medium
19	Luca Marini	01:47.582	+1.442	16	355.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.586	+1.446	17	356.4	Soft / Medium	1:48.615	+1.29%	12	Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.742	+1.602	16	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Joan Mir	01:47.812	+1.672	18	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:48.068	+0.78%	6	Medium
23	Johann Zarco	01:47.904	+1.764	18	357.6	Soft / Medium	1:48.828	+1.48%	5	Medium
24	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.112	+1.972	17	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 31.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.938	—	20	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Alex Rins	01:45.211	+0.273	23	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Pedro Acosta	01:45.326	+0.388	18	362.4	Medium / Soft	1:46.106	—	4	Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.340	+0.402	22	358.8	Medium / Soft	1:48.060	+1.84%	6	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:45.345	+0.407	24	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:45.403	+0.465	22	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Jorge Martin	01:45.405	+0.467	25	358.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.525	+0.40%	9	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:45.412	+0.474	24	356.4	Medium / Soft	1:46.607	+0.47%	5	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:45.424	+0.486	23	355.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.678	+0.54%	9	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.461	+0.523	18	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.480	+0.542	21	360.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.650	+0.712	23	358.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.821	+0.67%	5	Medium
13	Brad Binder	01:45.698	+0.760	23	361.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.942	+0.79%	5	Soft
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.729	+0.791	26	361.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.900	+0.75%	10	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.759	+0.821	22	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Raul Fernandez	01:45.784	+0.846	21	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:46.661	+0.52%	5	Medium
17	Jack Miller	01:45.798	+0.860	21	360.0	Medium / Soft	1:46.659	+0.52%	4	Soft
18	Pol Espargaro	01:46.078	+1.140	19	366.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.079	+1.141	22	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:46.514	+1.576	23	360.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:46.584	+1.646	21	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:46.740	+1.802	21	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Augusto Fernandez	01:46.874	+1.936	21	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Luca Marini	01:47.062	+2.124	22	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 01.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.608	—	10	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:45.947	+0.339	14	360.0	Medium / Soft	1:46.526	—	5	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.036	+0.428	11	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Enea Bastianini	01:46.084	+0.476	12	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Pedro Acosta	01:46.099	+0.491	17	360.0	Medium / Soft	1:46.796	+0.25%	13	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:46.100	+0.492	13	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.260	+0.652	10	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Brad Binder	01:46.273	+0.665	11	360.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	01:46.284	+0.676	13	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:46.304	+0.696	13	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:46.580	+0.05%	8	Soft
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.368	+0.760	9	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.430	+0.822	13	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Raul Fernandez	01:46.476	+0.868	11	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:46.498	+0.890	12	362.4	Medium / Soft	1:47.356	+0.78%	5	Soft
15	Jorge Martin	01:46.549	+0.941	14	356.4	Medium / Soft	1:47.297	+0.72%	5	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	01:46.634	+1.026	13	362.4	Medium / Soft	1:48.018	+1.40%	4	Soft
17	Alex Rins	01:46.657	+1.049	11	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.700	+1.092	13	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:46.856	+1.248	11	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.099	+1.491	12	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:47.707	+1.11%	5	Soft
21	Johann Zarco	01:47.213	+1.605	12	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Joan Mir	01:47.245	+1.637	11	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.416	+1.808	12	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Luca Marini	01:47.468	+1.860	13	356.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 01.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.726	—	6	352.9	Medium / Soft
2	Raul Fernandez	01:44.868	+0.142	6	351.7	Medium / Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:44.994	+0.268	8	358.8	Medium / Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.007	+0.281	8	352.9	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.076	+0.350	6	356.4	Medium / Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.218	+0.492	8	356.4	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:45.728	+1.002	8	358.8	Medium / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:45.813	+1.087	8	358.8	Medium / Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:45.824	+1.098	8	361.2	Soft / Soft
10	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.893	+1.167	8	360.0	Medium / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:45.943	+1.217	6	364.8	Medium / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:46.200	+1.474	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.265	+1.539	8	355.2	Medium / Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:46.698	+1.972	7	357.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 01.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:44.504	—	7	360.0	Medium / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.547	+0.043	8	357.6	Medium / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:44.687	+0.183	6	360.0	Medium / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:44.784	+0.280	5	361.2	Medium / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:44.880	+0.376	8	356.4	Medium / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.896	+0.392	7	355.2	Medium / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:45.028	+0.524	8	364.8	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:45.208	+0.704	8	358.8	Medium / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.236	+0.732	7	361.2	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:45.296	+0.792	8	352.9	Medium / Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.377	+0.873	8	361.2	Medium / Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:45.458	+0.954	6	352.9	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 01.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	19:30.251	12	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.871	+0.05%	9	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+1.469	9	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.040	+0.21%	9	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	+4.147	7	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.063	+0.23%	9	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	+5.421	6	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.281	+0.44%	9	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	+7.693	5	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.526	+0.67%	9	Soft
6	Brad Binder	+8.271	4	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.782	+0.91%	9	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+8.571	3	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.709	+0.84%	9	Soft
8	Alex Marquez	+8.846	2	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.476	+0.62%	9	Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	+8.984	1	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.713	+0.85%	9	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+10.085	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.557	+0.70%	9	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+10.199	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.552	+0.69%	8	Soft
12	Jack Miller	+13.988	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.033	+1.15%	9	Soft
13	Alex Rins	+14.137	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.905	+1.03%	9	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	+18.259	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.381	+1.48%	9	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	+18.309	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.259	+1.36%	9	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+19.374	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.305	+1.41%	9	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	+23.060	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.729	+1.81%	9	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+24.596	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.917	+1.98%	9	Soft
19	Luca Marini	+25.587	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.709	+1.79%	9	Soft
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	1	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:45.818	—	5	Soft
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	1	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 02.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Pedro Acosta	01:45.900	—	6	360.0	Soft / Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	01:45.982	+0.082	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.988	+0.088	6	354.0	Soft / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:46.044	+0.144	6	354.0	Soft / Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.165	+0.265	6	349.5	Medium / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:46.232	+0.332	6	357.6	Medium / Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.279	+0.379	6	357.6	Medium / Soft
8	Raul Fernandez	01:46.318	+0.418	6	350.6	Medium / Soft
9	Marc Marquez	01:46.364	+0.464	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:46.399	+0.499	6	362.4	Medium / Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:46.515	+0.615	6	361.2	Soft / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:46.631	+0.731	6	361.2	Soft / Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.641	+0.741	6	358.8	Medium / Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.686	+0.786	6	356.4	Soft / Soft
15	Jack Miller	01:46.710	+0.810	6	358.8	Soft / Soft
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:46.731	+0.831	6	361.2	Medium / Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.826	+0.926	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.878	+0.978	6	360.0	Medium / Medium
19	Johann Zarco	01:47.108	+1.208	6	360.0	Medium / Soft
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.174	+1.274	6	355.2	Soft / Soft
21	Joan Mir	01:47.210	+1.310	6	363.6	Medium / Soft
22	Luca Marini	01:47.214	+1.314	6	358.8	Soft / Soft
23	Alex Rins	01:47.219	+1.319	6	352.9	Medium / Soft
24	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.904	+2.004	6	349.5	Medium / Soft

Race · 02.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:51.385	25	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.322	—	21	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.799	20	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.390	+0.06%	21	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+0.924	16	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.385	+0.06%	21	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	+2.064	13	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.408	+0.08%	21	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	+7.501	11	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.663	+0.32%	21	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	+9.890	10	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.771	+0.42%	21	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+10.076	9	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.673	+0.33%	21	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	+11.683	8	23	Medium / Medium	1:46.738	+0.39%	21	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	+13.535	7	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.866	+0.51%	21	Soft
10	Brad Binder	+15.901	6	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.980	+0.62%	21	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	+19.182	5	23	Medium / Soft	1:46.995	+0.63%	21	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	+20.307	4	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.144	+0.77%	21	Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	+20.346	3	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.073	+0.71%	21	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	+23.292	2	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.104	+0.74%	21	Soft
15	Alex Rins	+23.613	1	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.398	+1.01%	21	Soft
16	Jack Miller	+28.417	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.392	+1.01%	21	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	+28.778	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.416	+1.03%	21	Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	+30.622	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.387	+1.00%	21	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	+31.457	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.631	+1.23%	21	Soft
20	Luca Marini	+32.310	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.593	+1.20%	21	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	+46.724	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.979	+1.56%	19	Soft
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:47.437	+1.05%	4	Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:47.371	+0.99%	7	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:46.135*	—	+0.319	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:46.240	+0.105	+0.457	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:46.808*	+0.673	+0.292	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	57%	5
2	Franco Morbidelli	40%	1 ✓
3	Brad Binder	30%	3
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	21%	4
5	Marco Bezzecchi	19%	6
6	Raul Fernandez	10%	2 ✓
7	Jack Miller	8%	9
8	Pol Espargaro	4%	11
9	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	13
10	Johann Zarco	3%	8
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	10
12	Joan Mir	1%	7
13	Lorenzo Savadori	1%	12
14	Luca Marini	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	34%	63%	87%	2
2	Marc Marquez	23%	51%	80%	4
3	Pedro Acosta	14%	47%	78%	7
4	Enea Bastianini	5%	33%	67%	5
5	Alex Rins	5%	26%	53%	10
6	Franco Morbidelli	7%	23%	56%	6
7	Maverick Viñales	2%	12%	40%	3
8	Alex Marquez	3%	14%	38%	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	3%	9%	29%	11
10	Jorge Martin	2%	9%	26%	1
11	Aleix Espargaro	3%	10%	29%	9
12	Raul Fernandez	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Francesco Bagnaia	2	5	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #1

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	30%	64%	83%	95%	3%	—
Maverick Viñales	2	20%	53%	73%	89%	9%	5
Marc Marquez	3	14%	47%	69%	90%	6%	2
Enea Bastianini	4	11%	36%	58%	84%	12%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	5	7%	26%	49%	81%	12%	1
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	23%	46%	88%	3%	4
Pedro Acosta	7	4%	16%	36%	81%	7%	3
Alex Marquez	8	3%	11%	24%	68%	17%	8
Aleix Espargaro	9	1%	6%	14%	54%	25%	9
Alex Rins	10	1%	5%	12%	52%	19%	13
Miguel Oliveira	11	1%	4%	10%	49%	14%	—
Raul Fernandez	12	1%	3%	8%	44%	6%	10
Brad Binder	13	1%	2%	5%	33%	12%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	2%	4%	25%	19%	7
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	2%	3%	21%	9%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	15%	11
Joan Mir	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	25%	—
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	19%	15
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	6%	12
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	15%	17
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	16
Luca Marini	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	35%	61%	71%	76%	23%	3
Maverick Viñales	2	7%	31%	56%	84%	13%	8
Marc Marquez	3	20%	51%	70%	82%	17%	4
Enea Bastianini	4	11%	37%	60%	80%	18%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	5	14%	42%	60%	74%	25%	1
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	26%	50%	80%	17%	6
Pedro Acosta	7	7%	30%	54%	80%	18%	5
Alex Marquez	8	2%	11%	29%	69%	24%	9
Aleix Espargaro	9	0%	3%	11%	54%	24%	11
Alex Rins	10	0%	1%	5%	41%	22%	15
Miguel Oliveira	11	0%	1%	6%	46%	21%	14
Raul Fernandez	12	0%	2%	9%	55%	21%	12
Brad Binder	13	0%	1%	4%	39%	13%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	1%	5%	46%	16%	7
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	0%	0%	16%	13%	18
Marco Bezzecchi	16	0%	2%	8%	54%	16%	13
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	0%	4%	28%	—
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	0%	9%	19%	19
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	26%	16
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	22%	—
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	25%	21
Takaaki Nakagami	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	—
Luca Marini	24	0%	0%	0%	0%	8%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Francesco Bagnaia	27% → 42%	+14	7% → 14%
Pedro Acosta	19% → 30%	+11	4% → 7%
Jorge Martin	53% → 61%	+8	27% → 35%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	56% → 31%	−25	24% → 7%
Aleix Espargaro	8% → 3%	−5	1% → 0%
Alex Rins	6% → 1%	−5	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:45.818	—	+0.457	Soft	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:45.871	+0.053	+0.221	Soft	9
Marc Marquez	1:46.040	+0.222	+0.210	Soft	9
Pedro Acosta	1:46.063	+0.245	+0.448	Soft	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.281	+0.463	+0.512	Soft	9
Alex Marquez	1:46.476	+0.658	+0.356	Soft	9
Maverick Viñales	1:46.526	+0.708	+0.292	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:46.552	+0.734	+0.553	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	1:46.557	+0.739	+0.667	Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:46.709	+0.891	+0.320	Soft	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.713	+0.895	+0.209	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:46.782	+0.964	+0.327	Soft	9
Alex Rins	1:46.905	+1.087	+0.217	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:47.033	+1.215	+0.105	Soft	9
Johann Zarco	1:47.259	+1.441	+0.344	Soft	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.305	+1.487	+0.359	Soft	9
Pol Espargaro	1:47.381	+1.563	+0.406	Soft	9
Luca Marini	1:47.709	+1.891	+0.308	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:47.729	+1.911	+0.437	Soft	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:47.917	+2.099	+0.781	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Jorge Martin +0.45%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Marc Marquez +0.52%
S2	Raul Fernandez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.48%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.50%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.22%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S3	Luca Marini +0.10%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.39%	Miguel Oliveira +0.58%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.33%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.24%	Danilo Petrucci +0.32%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.63%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.34%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.07%	Valentino Rossi +0.27%	Cal Crutchlow +0.43%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.21%	Andrea Iannone +0.31%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	155	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	116	−39
3	Marc Marquez	114	−41
4	Enea Bastianini	94	−61
5	Maverick Viñales	87	−68
6	Pedro Acosta	83	−72

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.067 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P9 to P3.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Takaaki Nakagami (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:47.315	—	+0.356	Soft	12
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.351	+0.036	+0.221	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:47.369	+0.054	+0.457	Soft	20
Johann Zarco	1:47.379	+0.064	+0.344	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:47.562	+0.247	+0.308	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:47.598	+0.283	+0.327	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.795	+0.480	+0.553	Medium	21
Jack Miller	1:47.796	+0.481	+0.105	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.830	+0.515	+0.209	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.896	+0.581	+0.193	Medium	8

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	64%	+0.59%	+0.053	1	2	10.2
Soft	36%	+0.52%	+0.055	0	1	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.