Round 8 of 20 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2024

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

28.06 – 30.06.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:07.214	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+3.676	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.073	16
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.299	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.258	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.005	10
7	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+21.095	9
8	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+22.368	8
9	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+23.413	7
10	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+23.868	6
11	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+24.004	5
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.057	4
13	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+42.767	3
14	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+42.871	2
15	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+44.429	1
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+46.246	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+70.937	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:58.090	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+2.355	9
3	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.103	7
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+6.377	6
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.869	5
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.727	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+10.828	3
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.196	2
9	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+13.560	1
10	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+15.972	0
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+16.036	0
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+16.082	0
13	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.739	0
14	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+21.791	0
15	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+22.450	0
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+23.690	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+24.430	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+29.568	0
19	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+83.553	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 28% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 28% · from P1	0.83 / 0.83	2.5 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 26% · from P1	0.86 / 0.86	2.0 / 2.0
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 35% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 35% · from P1	0.89 / 0.86	1.9 / 2.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.269	—	+0.221	Medium	24
Jorge Martin	1:32.307	+0.038	+0.457	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.441	+0.172	+0.320	Medium	22
Marc Marquez	1:32.546	+0.277	+0.210	Medium	20
Maverick Viñales	1:32.576	+0.307	+0.292	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:32.594	+0.325	+0.319	Medium	24
Pedro Acosta	1:32.730	+0.461	+0.448	Soft	22
Brad Binder	1:32.881	+0.612	+0.327	Soft	24
Alex Marquez	1:32.986	+0.717	+0.356	Medium	21
Raul Fernandez	1:33.126	+0.857	+0.667	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.157	+0.888	+0.512	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.174	+0.905	+0.275	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:33.229	+0.960	+0.105	Soft	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.539	+1.270	+0.193	Medium	18
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.747	+1.478	+0.437	Soft	22
Joan Mir	1:33.771	+1.502	+0.562	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:33.874	+1.605	+0.344	Medium	22
Luca Marini	1:33.893	+1.624	+0.308	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.976	+1.707	+0.359	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.676 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P10 to P3.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Jack Miller (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.355 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P22 to P15.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Joan Mir (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:04:07	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:09:30	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:09:36	Luca Marini	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Sprint	15:15:21	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:17:40	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:18:20	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:19:14	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:22:16	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:23:05		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:02:28	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:30	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:06	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:38	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:28:15	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to incorrect long lap execution
Race	14:31:58	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:41:47	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:45:10	Maverick Viñales	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for rider #93 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #89

Race: 7 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 12 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Martin	5	2	+3
Joan Mir	18	16	+2
Miguel Oliveira	16	14	+2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	8	−4
Alex Marquez	3	5	−2
Maverick Viñales	2	3	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	10→3	+5.6
Jorge Martin	5→2	+3.4
Francesco Bagnaia	1→1	+1.8
Luca Marini	19→17	−2.6
Alex Marquez	3→7	−2.9
Marc Marquez	6→10	−4.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	75%	+0.93%	+0.006	1	3	8.5
Soft	25%	+0.98%	+0.003	0	0	10.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.5 °C

Air

max 22.0 °C

49%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.401	—	19	306.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.466	+0.065	19	306.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.198	+0.20%	5	Medium
3	Raul Fernandez	01:32.501	+0.100	17	302.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.594	+0.193	17	302.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.678	+0.277	19	306.7	Medium / Medium	1:33.467	+0.49%	5	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.688	+0.287	16	302.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.753	+0.352	18	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.538	+1.64%	5	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:32.767	+0.366	20	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.011	—	5	Medium
9	Brad Binder	01:32.863	+0.462	22	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.637	+0.67%	10	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:32.927	+0.526	21	307.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.818	+0.87%	10	Medium
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.979	+0.578	20	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.240	+1.32%	10	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:33.029	+0.628	19	306.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.279	+1.36%	11	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.094	+0.693	21	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:36.134	+3.36%	6	Medium
14	Pedro Acosta	01:33.283	+0.882	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.679	+0.72%	10	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.403	+1.002	20	306.0	Soft / Medium	1:35.336	+2.50%	5	Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:33.688	+1.287	18	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.767	+0.81%	5	Medium
17	Jack Miller	01:33.794	+1.393	19	308.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.960	+1.559	20	301.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Luca Marini	01:34.096	+1.695	21	306.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:34.120	+1.719	17	302.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Johann Zarco	01:34.236	+1.835	20	302.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.974	+2.11%	6	Medium
22	Joan Mir	01:34.244	+1.843	18	301.4	Soft / Medium	1:34.640	+1.75%	4	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.555	+2.154	18	304.4	Medium / Medium	1:36.491	+3.74%	4	Medium

Practice · 28.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.340	—	23	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.601	—	6	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.405	+0.065	25	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.986	+0.42%	8	Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:31.660	+0.320	24	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.990	+0.42%	5	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.812	+0.472	22	305.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Jorge Martin	01:31.829	+0.489	26	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.992	+0.42%	6	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	01:31.851	+0.511	24	307.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Brad Binder	01:31.866	+0.526	24	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.790	+0.20%	5	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.870	+0.530	19	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Raul Fernandez	01:31.909	+0.569	26	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.228	+0.68%	11	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.013	+0.673	26	307.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.489	+0.96%	5	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.054	+0.714	25	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.289	+0.74%	11	Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.168	+0.828	25	310.6	Hard / Soft	1:33.371	+0.83%	10	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.173	+0.833	22	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.788	+0.20%	6	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:32.203	+0.863	26	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.450	+0.92%	4	Soft
15	Pedro Acosta	01:32.244	+0.904	26	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.582	+1.06%	13	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.488	+1.148	27	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.640	+1.12%	5	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	01:32.730	+1.390	24	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.620	+2.18%	5	Soft
18	Jack Miller	01:33.106	+1.766	23	306.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.127	+1.787	24	300.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.306	+1.966	22	307.5	Hard / Soft	1:35.085	+2.68%	5	Soft
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.344	+2.004	23	302.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.174	+1.70%	6	Soft
22	Joan Mir	01:33.355	+2.015	23	302.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Luca Marini	01:33.561	+2.221	25	305.2	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.670	—	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.743	+0.073	15	308.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.447	—	6	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:31.991	+0.321	15	313.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.003	+0.60%	5	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:32.050	+0.380	15	307.5	Hard / Soft	1:33.102	+0.71%	6	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:32.174	+0.504	16	309.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.279	+0.609	15	309.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.318	+0.648	13	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Marquez	01:32.327	+0.657	16	309.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.861	+0.45%	5	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:32.407	+0.737	13	305.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.411	+0.741	16	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.976	+0.57%	11	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.446	+0.776	14	303.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:32.486	+0.816	14	316.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Enea Bastianini	01:32.489	+0.819	16	310.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.670	+1.000	10	309.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:32.690	+1.020	16	310.6	Hard / Medium	1:33.157	+0.77%	9	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.766	+1.096	16	310.6	Medium / Medium	1:34.210	+1.91%	6	Medium
17	Joan Mir	01:32.844	+1.174	14	306.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.303	+0.93%	5	Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:33.042	+1.372	14	306.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.503	+1.14%	5	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	01:33.244	+1.574	14	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.388	+1.718	14	308.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.396	+1.726	15	305.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.410	+1.740	17	304.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.244	+1.94%	9	Medium
23	Luca Marini	01:33.468	+1.798	14	308.3	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Pedro Acosta	01:31.372	—	9	311.4	Soft / Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.390	+0.018	9	309.0	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.620	+0.248	8	304.4	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:31.903	+0.531	8	310.6	Soft / Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.997	+0.625	6	310.6	Hard / Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:32.108	+0.736	9	304.4	Medium / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.123	+0.751	9	314.6	Medium / Soft
8	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.243	+0.871	8	307.5	Hard / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:32.260	+0.888	8	306.0	Soft / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:32.497	+1.125	9	306.7	Soft / Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:32.627	+1.255	9	309.0	Soft / Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.669	+1.297	9	307.5	Soft / Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.030	+1.658	9	302.9	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.540	—	7	309.8	Medium / Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:30.621	+0.081	8	312.2	Soft / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.951	+0.411	7	310.6	Soft / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:30.979	+0.439	8	310.6	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.077	+0.537	6	310.6	Soft / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.274	+0.734	5	307.5	Soft / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:31.378	+0.838	6	312.2	Soft / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.405	+0.865	8	311.4	Soft / Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:31.479	+0.939	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	01:31.482	+0.942	7	313.8	Soft / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:31.628	+1.088	8	312.2	Soft / Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:31.928	+1.388	8	308.3	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 29.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	19:58.090	12	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.824	—	10	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	+2.355	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.943	+0.13%	11	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	+4.103	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.062	+0.26%	10	Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	+6.377	6	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.118	+0.32%	11	Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+8.869	5	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.283	+0.50%	11	Soft
6	Brad Binder	+9.727	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.338	+0.56%	11	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+10.828	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.445	+0.68%	11	Soft
8	Alex Marquez	+13.196	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.349	+0.57%	9	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	+13.560	1	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.753	+1.01%	9	Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	+15.972	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.917	+1.19%	9	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.036	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.791	+1.05%	9	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+16.082	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:32.724	+0.98%	10	Medium
13	Jack Miller	+18.739	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.030	+1.31%	11	Soft
14	Joan Mir	+21.791	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.346	+1.66%	11	Soft
15	Augusto Fernandez	+22.450	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.253	+1.56%	10	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	+23.690	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:33.284	+1.59%	9	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	+24.430	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.096	+1.39%	9	Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+29.568	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.978	+2.35%	9	Soft
19	Alex Rins	+83.553	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.341	+1.65%	9	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	12	Hard / Soft	1:32.356	+0.58%	10	Soft
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	4	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Luca Marini		0	4	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.309	—	7	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.021	+0.34%	5	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.313	+0.004	7	311.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.129	+0.46%	4	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:32.325	+0.016	7	309.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.707	—	5	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.359	+0.050	7	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:32.920	+0.23%	4	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:32.495	+0.186	7	309.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.176	+0.51%	5	Medium
6	Enea Bastianini	01:32.507	+0.198	7	311.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.681	+1.05%	5	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.522	+0.213	7	312.2	Medium / Medium	1:33.354	+0.70%	4	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.678	+0.369	7	306.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.372	+0.72%	5	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:32.775	+0.466	7	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.407	+0.76%	5	Medium
10	Pedro Acosta	01:32.777	+0.468	7	309.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.810	+0.501	6	304.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:32.900	+0.591	6	308.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:32.904	+0.595	7	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.095	+1.50%	4	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:33.114	+0.805	6	303.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:33.255	+0.946	7	310.6	Soft / Medium	1:34.174	+1.58%	4	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.288	+0.979	7	309.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:33.301	+0.992	7	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.572	+0.93%	5	Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:33.303	+0.994	7	306.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.462	+1.153	7	306.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:33.757	+1.448	6	303.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:34.090	+1.781	7	304.4	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 30.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:07.214	25	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.269	—	24	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+3.676	20	26	Medium / Medium	1:32.307	+0.04%	21	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+7.073	16	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.594	+0.35%	24	Medium
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+8.299	13	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.441	+0.19%	22	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	+8.258	11	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.576	+0.33%	21	Medium
6	Brad Binder	+16.005	10	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.881	+0.66%	24	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	+21.095	9	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.986	+0.78%	21	Medium
8	Raul Fernandez	+22.368	8	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.126	+0.93%	21	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	+23.413	7	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.157	+0.96%	23	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	+23.868	6	26	Hard / Medium	1:32.546	+0.30%	20	Medium
11	Jack Miller	+24.004	5	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.229	+1.04%	23	Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	+24.057	4	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.174	+0.98%	22	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+42.767	3	26	Medium / Medium	1:33.874	+1.74%	22	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	+42.871	2	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.747	+1.60%	22	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	+44.429	1	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.539	+1.38%	18	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+46.246	0	26	Medium / Medium	1:33.976	+1.85%	20	Medium
17	Luca Marini	+70.937	0	26	Medium / Medium	1:33.893	+1.76%	22	Medium
Out on lap 1	Alex Rins		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		0	6	Medium / Medium	1:33.771	+1.63%	4	Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	25	Hard / Soft	1:32.730	+0.50%	22	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.451	—	+0.221	Medium	5
Alex Marquez	1:32.614*	+0.163	+0.356	Medium	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.730	+0.279	+0.320	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:32.878*	+0.427	+0.210	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.900	+0.449	+0.193	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.027*	+0.576	+0.275	Medium	3
Joan Mir	1:33.222*	+0.771	+0.562	Medium	4
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.710*	+1.259	+0.437	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	57%	3
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	41%	2 ✓
3	Pedro Acosta	30%	1 ✓
4	Marco Bezzecchi	21%	5
5	Jack Miller	19%	4
6	Alex Rins	11%	6
7	Miguel Oliveira	8%	7
8	Johann Zarco	4%	9
9	Joan Mir	3%	10
10	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	8
11	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	13
12	Augusto Fernandez	1%	12
13	Luca Marini	1%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	34%	64%	87%	1
2	Maverick Viñales	23%	51%	80%	3
3	Jorge Martin	14%	47%	77%	2
4	Marc Marquez	5%	33%	68%	7
5	Alex Marquez	5%	26%	53%	4
6	Aleix Espargaro	7%	23%	56%	5
7	Pedro Acosta	2%	13%	40%	10
8	Franco Morbidelli	3%	14%	38%	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	9%	28%	6
10	Raul Fernandez	3%	9%	26%	12
11	Brad Binder	3%	10%	29%	9
12	Enea Bastianini	1%	4%	20%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Lorenzo Savadori	18	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Aleix Espargaro	5	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Jorge Martin	2	5	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #89

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	28%	61%	76%	87%	12%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	56%	74%	88%	9%	3
Alex Marquez	3	14%	42%	62%	81%	17%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	10%	34%	54%	78%	18%	5
Jorge Martin	5	8%	30%	55%	88%	6%	2
Marc Marquez	6	5%	22%	46%	83%	6%	—
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	18%	38%	84%	3%	9
Brad Binder	8	2%	11%	27%	72%	12%	6
Pedro Acosta	9	2%	8%	20%	69%	6%	10
Enea Bastianini	10	1%	5%	13%	55%	15%	4
Raul Fernandez	11	1%	4%	10%	53%	6%	17
Fabio Quartararo	12	1%	2%	7%	42%	12%	7
Jack Miller	13	1%	3%	6%	35%	6%	13
Marco Bezzecchi	14	0%	1%	3%	25%	15%	11
Alex Rins	15	0%	1%	3%	18%	18%	19
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	17%	12
Johann Zarco	17	0%	0%	1%	9%	18%	16
Joan Mir	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	28%	14
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	16%	—
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	15%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	18
Aleix Espargaro	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	35%	60%	71%	75%	24%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	56%	75%	86%	13%	5
Alex Marquez	3	9%	35%	56%	75%	23%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	11%	40%	64%	83%	15%	4
Jorge Martin	5	14%	45%	65%	77%	23%	2
Marc Marquez	6	4%	23%	45%	80%	17%	10
Franco Morbidelli	7	1%	7%	22%	69%	17%	9
Brad Binder	8	1%	10%	28%	77%	13%	6
Pedro Acosta	9	0%	2%	9%	54%	17%	—
Enea Bastianini	10	3%	19%	42%	77%	18%	3
Raul Fernandez	11	0%	0%	3%	36%	20%	8
Fabio Quartararo	12	0%	3%	12%	62%	13%	12
Jack Miller	13	0%	0%	2%	28%	25%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	14	0%	0%	3%	38%	15%	—
Alex Rins	15	0%	0%	0%	9%	22%	—
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	0%	3%	34%	21%	15
Johann Zarco	17	0%	0%	0%	8%	19%	13
Joan Mir	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	29%	—
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	17
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	16
Aleix Espargaro	22	0%	0%	1%	20%	23%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	24%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	27% → 45%	+18	7% → 14%
Enea Bastianini	6% → 19%	+13	1% → 3%
Francesco Bagnaia	52% → 60%	+9	26% → 35%
Dropping
Franco Morbidelli	18% → 7%	−11	4% → 1%
Pedro Acosta	10% → 2%	−8	2% → 0%
Alex Marquez	42% → 35%	−7	14% → 9%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.824	—	+0.221	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:31.943	+0.119	+0.457	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:32.062	+0.238	+0.292	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:32.118	+0.294	+0.319	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.283	+0.459	+0.320	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:32.338	+0.514	+0.327	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:32.349	+0.525	+0.356	Soft	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.356	+0.532	+0.209	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.445	+0.621	+0.275	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.724	+0.900	+0.193	Medium	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.753	+0.929	+0.512	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.791	+0.967	+0.553	Soft	9
Pedro Acosta	1:32.917	+1.093	+0.448	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:33.030	+1.206	+0.105	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:33.096	+1.272	+0.667	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.253	+1.429	+0.437	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:33.284	+1.460	+0.344	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:33.341	+1.517	+0.217	Soft	9
Joan Mir	1:33.346	+1.522	+0.562	Soft	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.978	+2.154	+0.359	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	171	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	153	−18
3	Marc Marquez	136	−35
4	Enea Bastianini	114	−57
5	Pedro Acosta	101	−70
6	Maverick Viñales	100	−71

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

24/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.223 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P20 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Marco Bezzecchi (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:33.422	—	+0.457	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.498	+0.076	+0.209	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.509	+0.087	+0.221	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:33.538	+0.116	+0.327	Soft	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:33.567	+0.145	+0.553	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:33.859	+0.437	+0.356	Soft	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.936	+0.514	+0.359	Soft	17
Luca Marini	1:34.011	+0.589	+0.308	Medium	24
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:34.090	+0.668	+0.320	Soft	15
Enea Bastianini	1:34.114	+0.692	+0.319	Medium	4

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	50%	+0.63%	−0.001	1	3	5.6
Soft	50%	+0.98%	−0.011	0	0	9.4

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.