Round 6 of 20 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2024

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

24.05 – 26.05.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:11.726	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.740	20
3	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.491	16
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.543	13
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+15.441	11
6	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+15.916	10
7	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+16.882	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.578	8
9	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+20.477	7
10	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+20.889	6
11	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+21.023	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+22.137	4
13	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+31.967	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+32.987	2
15	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+33.132	1
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+34.554	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+36.689	0
18	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+50.615	0
19	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+55.295	0
20	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+63.428	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	20:01.478	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.892	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+1.169	7
4	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+2.147	6
5	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.980	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+4.623	4
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.084	3
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.245	2
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.643	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+9.241	0
11	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.537	0
12	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.045	0
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+13.199	0
14	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.378	0
15	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+16.438	0
16	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.000	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+25.262	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+33.751	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Aleix Espargaro · 23% ✓	Aleix Espargaro · 23% · from P1	0.78 / 0.78	3.0 / 3.0
Race (after the grid)	Aleix Espargaro · 26%	Francesco Bagnaia · 19% · from P2	0.60 / 0.60	3.6 / 3.6
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 28% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 28% · from P2	0.76 / 0.60	3.0 / 3.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:40.133	—	+0.457	Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.182	+0.049	+0.221	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.414	+0.281	+0.512	Medium	14
Enea Bastianini	1:40.621	+0.488	+0.319	Medium	19
Raul Fernandez	1:40.644	+0.511	+0.667	Medium	22
Pedro Acosta	1:40.646	+0.513	+0.448	Soft	18
Marc Marquez	1:40.649	+0.516	+0.210	Soft	22
Alex Marquez	1:40.728	+0.595	+0.356	Soft	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.802	+0.669	+0.209	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.802	+0.669	+0.320	Medium	20
Maverick Viñales	1:40.828	+0.695	+0.292	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.914	+0.781	+0.193	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.960	+0.827	+0.275	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:40.994	+0.861	+0.553	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:41.098	+0.965	+0.327	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:41.352	+1.219	+0.217	Medium	20
Joan Mir	1:41.378	+1.245	+0.562	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:41.402	+1.269	+0.344	Medium	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.465	+1.332	+0.359	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:41.568	+1.435	+0.308	Medium	22
Stefan Bradl	1:42.203	+2.070	+0.530	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.740 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P14 to P3.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Raul Fernandez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

5 leaders

1/12

Laps led by the winner

Aleix Espargaro

0.892 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P14 to P2.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Maverick Viñales (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:10:15	Raul Fernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:35	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:13:00	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:13:08	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:15:38	Johann Zarco	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:18:17	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:21:25	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:07:04	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:19	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:17	Pedro Acosta	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:23:40	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	long lap penalty due to shortcut at T2
Race	14:30:01	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	double long lap penalty - failed to comply with long lap penalty
Race	14:32:12	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:40:27		Long lap	long lap penalty
Race	14:43:30		Ride through	ride through penalty

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 7 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Quartararo	17	13	+4
Marc Marquez	14	10	+4
Jorge Martin	7	3	+4
Alex Rins	8	22	−14
Maverick Viñales	12	18	−6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	11	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	14→3	+8.2
Jorge Martin	7→2	+4.7
Fabio Quartararo	17→9	+4.1
Pedro Acosta	5→13	−7.6
Enea Bastianini	11→18	−8.7
Alex Rins	8→20	−12.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	83%	+0.83%	+0.056	1	2	11.0
Soft	17%	+0.52%	+0.070	0	1	7.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.6 °C

Air

max 23.8 °C

55%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 34 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:39.579	—	19	351.7	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:39.871	+0.292	19	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.856	+0.28%	5	Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:39.958	+0.379	21	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:40.812	+0.24%	11	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:39.966	+0.387	20	352.9	— / —	—			—
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.051	+0.472	16	350.6	— / —	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:40.287	+0.708	19	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:40.737	+0.16%	9	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.303	+0.724	18	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.109	+0.53%	6	Medium
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.338	+0.759	20	351.7	— / —	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:40.361	+0.782	22	354.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Raul Fernandez	01:40.368	+0.789	20	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.016	+0.44%	10	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	01:40.380	+0.801	17	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.088	+0.51%	10	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.397	+0.818	17	349.5	— / —	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:40.422	+0.843	18	347.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.493	+0.914	17	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.574	—	5	Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.493	+0.914	19	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.028	+0.45%	6	Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:40.553	+0.974	15	350.6	— / —	—			—
17	Luca Marini	01:40.628	+1.049	18	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Joan Mir	01:40.672	+1.093	16	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Enea Bastianini	01:40.689	+1.110	20	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.444	+0.87%	16	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.692	+1.113	20	343.9	— / —	—			—
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.783	+1.204	16	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.794	+1.215	18	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.185	+0.61%	10	Medium
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.423	+1.844	18	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 24.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.562	—	22	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.303	+0.60%	9	Medium
2	Brad Binder	01:38.634	+0.072	14	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Pedro Acosta	01:38.665	+0.103	24	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.309	+0.61%	5	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.695	+0.133	23	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.231	+0.53%	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:38.702	+0.140	23	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:39.706	—	5	Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:38.793	+0.231	23	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.831	+0.269	24	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.994	+0.29%	5	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:39.017	+0.455	25	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Rins	01:39.043	+0.481	20	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:39.058	+0.496	25	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.279	+0.58%	7	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	01:39.113	+0.551	23	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.718	+1.02%	11	Medium
12	Marc Marquez	01:39.153	+0.591	24	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.350	+0.788	23	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.352	+0.790	22	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.785	+1.08%	6	Soft
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.382	+0.820	24	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.450	+0.75%	10	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	01:39.420	+0.858	22	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.479	+0.917	14	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.763	+1.06%	5	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.504	+0.942	22	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.411	+1.71%	11	Soft
19	Johann Zarco	01:39.558	+0.996	24	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.831	+2.13%	5	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.028	+1.466	24	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:40.256	+1.694	22	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:40.318	+1.756	22	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 25.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.294	—	14	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:39.653	—	5	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.306	+0.012	13	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.069	+0.42%	5	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.557	+0.263	15	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:39.973	+0.32%	5	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:39.609	+0.315	13	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:39.828	+0.18%	4	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:39.646	+0.352	18	351.7	Medium / Medium	1:39.872	+0.22%	9	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.681	+0.387	14	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.683	+0.389	13	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.165	+0.51%	5	Soft
8	Raul Fernandez	01:39.700	+0.406	13	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:39.949	+0.30%	5	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:39.764	+0.470	13	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.603	+0.95%	5	Soft
10	Marc Marquez	01:39.773	+0.479	11	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:40.028	+0.38%	5	Soft
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.825	+0.531	11	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:39.956	+0.30%	5	Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:39.836	+0.542	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:39.837	+0.543	15	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:39.978	+0.33%	5	Soft
14	Joan Mir	01:39.911	+0.617	11	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.952	+0.658	13	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.521	+0.87%	5	Soft
16	Enea Bastianini	01:39.956	+0.662	13	352.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Maverick Viñales	01:40.013	+0.719	11	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.079	+0.785	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.511	+0.86%	9	Soft
19	Alex Rins	01:40.154	+0.860	14	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.181	+0.887	14	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:40.462	+0.81%	7	Medium
21	Johann Zarco	01:40.337	+1.043	13	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.773	+1.12%	5	Soft
22	Luca Marini	01:40.538	+1.244	13	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.815	+1.17%	6	Soft
23	Stefan Bradl	01:40.675	+1.381	13	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.544	+1.90%	5	Soft

Q1 · 25.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.208	—	8	351.7	Soft / Soft
2	Raul Fernandez	01:38.453	+0.245	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:38.530	+0.322	8	348.3	Soft / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:38.536	+0.328	8	351.7	Medium / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.551	+0.343	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.662	+0.454	8	355.2	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.705	+0.497	8	349.5	Soft / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:38.978	+0.770	7	351.7	Soft / Soft
9	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.120	+0.912	8	355.2	Medium / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.156	+0.948	8	347.2	Soft / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:39.524	+1.316	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:39.621	+1.413	8	348.3	Soft / Soft
13	Stefan Bradl	01:40.276	+2.068	8	349.5	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 25.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.190	—	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.221	+0.031	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Raul Fernandez	01:38.261	+0.071	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:38.334	+0.144	8	352.9	Medium / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:38.369	+0.179	8	352.9	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.400	+0.210	8	349.5	Soft / Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:38.401	+0.211	5	350.6	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:38.692	+0.502	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:38.763	+0.573	7	350.6	Soft / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.778	+0.588	5	349.5	Medium / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:38.860	+0.670	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:38.972	+0.782	6	347.2	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 25.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	20:01.478	12	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.729	+0.17%	10	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+0.892	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.705	+0.15%	9	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	+1.169	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.028	+0.47%	10	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	+2.147	6	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.865	+0.31%	9	Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	+2.980	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.950	+0.39%	10	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+4.623	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.961	+0.41%	9	Soft
7	Jack Miller	+8.084	3	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.330	+0.78%	10	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	+8.245	2	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.380	+0.83%	10	Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+8.643	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.304	+0.75%	10	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	+9.241	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.353	+0.80%	10	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	+9.537	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.130	+0.58%	10	Soft
12	Alex Rins	+13.045	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.780	+1.23%	10	Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+13.199	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.584	+1.03%	9	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+13.378	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.282	+0.73%	8	Soft
15	Joan Mir	+16.438	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.887	+1.34%	9	Soft
16	Luca Marini	+18.000	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.056	+1.51%	10	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	+25.262	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.635	+1.08%	9	Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	+33.751	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.704	+2.16%	9	Soft
Retired	Brad Binder		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:39.558	—	4	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	11	Medium / Soft	1:39.612	+0.05%	8	Soft
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:40.539	+0.99%	5	Soft
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:39.814	+0.26%	7	Soft
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 26.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:39.505	—	6	352.9	Soft / Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	01:39.532	+0.027	6	352.9	Soft / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:39.584	+0.079	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:39.616	+0.111	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:39.617	+0.112	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.757	+0.252	6	356.4	Soft / Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:39.814	+0.309	6	343.9	Soft / Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.008	+0.503	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.018	+0.513	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.064	+0.559	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
11	Raul Fernandez	01:40.090	+0.585	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:40.144	+0.639	6	351.7	Soft / Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:40.189	+0.684	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.211	+0.706	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.287	+0.782	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:40.335	+0.830	6	350.6	Soft / Medium
17	Johann Zarco	01:40.476	+0.971	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:40.694	+1.189	6	343.9	Soft / Medium
19	Luca Marini	01:40.746	+1.241	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.851	+1.346	6	348.3	Soft / Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.983	+1.478	6	343.9	Soft / Medium
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.025	+1.520	6	347.2	Soft / Medium
23	Stefan Bradl	01:41.644	+2.139	6	350.6	Soft / Medium

Race · 26.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:11.726	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.182	+0.05%	21	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+1.740	20	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.133	—	22	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	+10.491	16	24	Medium / Soft	1:40.649	+0.52%	22	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	+10.543	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.802	+0.67%	21	Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+15.441	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.802	+0.67%	20	Medium
6	Raul Fernandez	+15.916	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.644	+0.51%	22	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	+16.882	9	24	Medium / Soft	1:40.728	+0.59%	22	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+18.578	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.098	+0.96%	22	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	+20.477	7	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.960	+0.83%	21	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	+20.889	6	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.914	+0.78%	22	Medium
11	Marco Bezzecchi	+21.023	5	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.994	+0.86%	22	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	+22.137	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.828	+0.69%	19	Medium
13	Pedro Acosta	+31.967	3	24	Medium / Soft	1:40.646	+0.51%	18	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+32.987	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.465	+1.33%	20	Medium
15	Joan Mir	+33.132	1	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.378	+1.24%	22	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	+34.554	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.402	+1.27%	20	Medium
17	Luca Marini	+36.689	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.568	+1.43%	22	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	+50.615	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.621	+0.49%	19	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	+55.295	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.203	+2.07%	22	Medium
20	Alex Rins	+63.428	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.352	+1.22%	20	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:40.414	+0.28%	14	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pedro Acosta	1:39.816	—	+0.448	Medium	8
Jorge Martin	1:40.108*	+0.292	+0.457	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.148*	+0.332	+0.512	Medium	4
Enea Bastianini	1:40.406*	+0.590	+0.319	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:40.718	+0.902	+0.356	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.843*	+1.027	+0.221	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:41.381*	+1.565	+0.667	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:41.803	+1.987	+0.344	Medium	7

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	57%	5
2	Alex Marquez	41%	3
3	Fabio Quartararo	30%	7
4	Marc Marquez	21%	4
5	Raul Fernandez	19%	2 ✓
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	10%	1 ✓
7	Marco Bezzecchi	8%	6
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	9
9	Joan Mir	3%	11
10	Johann Zarco	3%	8
11	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	10
12	Luca Marini	1%	12
13	Stefan Bradl	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	34%	63%	87%	1
2	Francesco Bagnaia	23%	51%	80%	2
3	Pedro Acosta	14%	47%	77%	5
4	Brad Binder	5%	33%	67%	4
5	Jorge Martin	5%	26%	53%	7
6	Franco Morbidelli	7%	23%	56%	10
7	Jack Miller	2%	12%	40%	9
8	Raul Fernandez	3%	13%	37%	3
9	Enea Bastianini	3%	9%	29%	11
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	9%	25%	6
11	Alex Rins	3%	10%	29%	8
12	Maverick Viñales	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	23%	51%	64%	73%	26%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	2	22%	56%	74%	88%	9%	—
Raul Fernandez	3	16%	50%	73%	94%	3%	—
Brad Binder	4	12%	39%	61%	86%	9%	—
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	29%	54%	86%	7%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	5%	19%	40%	73%	19%	6
Jorge Martin	7	4%	17%	38%	83%	3%	4
Alex Rins	8	2%	10%	24%	64%	20%	12
Jack Miller	9	3%	9%	20%	70%	6%	7
Franco Morbidelli	10	1%	5%	15%	65%	3%	11
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	4%	10%	50%	12%	5
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	3%	8%	44%	9%	8
Alex Marquez	13	1%	2%	5%	30%	18%	14
Marc Marquez	14	0%	2%	4%	28%	7%	2
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	3%	20%	10%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	16%	9
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	1%	2%	11%	9%	10
Johann Zarco	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	16%	—
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	16%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	13%	13
Joan Mir	21	0%	0%	1%	2%	26%	15
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	16
Stefan Bradl	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	21%	51%	66%	74%	24%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	2	28%	58%	69%	75%	25%	1
Raul Fernandez	3	15%	47%	66%	77%	21%	6
Brad Binder	4	25%	63%	77%	85%	13%	8
Pedro Acosta	5	2%	14%	36%	73%	20%	13
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	3%	20%	44%	78%	16%	5
Jorge Martin	7	4%	19%	39%	71%	23%	2
Alex Rins	8	0%	1%	3%	29%	22%	20
Jack Miller	9	0%	3%	10%	49%	25%	—
Franco Morbidelli	10	0%	4%	15%	61%	16%	—
Enea Bastianini	11	0%	6%	19%	64%	19%	18
Maverick Viñales	12	0%	1%	4%	38%	13%	12
Alex Marquez	13	0%	1%	6%	41%	24%	7
Marc Marquez	14	2%	11%	30%	72%	17%	3
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	4%	14%	57%	21%	10
Marco Bezzecchi	16	0%	0%	2%	24%	16%	11
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	0%	0%	14%	13%	9
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	16
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	14%	14
Joan Mir	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	29%	15
Luca Marini	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	17
Stefan Bradl	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Brad Binder	39% → 63%	+24	13% → 25%
Francesco Bagnaia	47% → 58%	+11	19% → 28%
Marc Marquez	2% → 11%	+8	1% → 2%
Dropping
Pedro Acosta	30% → 14%	−16	8% → 2%
Alex Rins	13% → 1%	−13	3% → 0%
Jack Miller	9% → 3%	−7	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Brad Binder	1:39.558	—	+0.327	Soft	4
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.612	+0.054	+0.221	Soft	8
Marc Marquez	1:39.705	+0.147	+0.210	Soft	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.729	+0.171	+0.209	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.814	+0.256	+0.193	Soft	7
Jorge Martin	1:39.865	+0.307	+0.457	Soft	9
Enea Bastianini	1:39.950	+0.392	+0.319	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.961	+0.403	+0.320	Soft	9
Pedro Acosta	1:40.028	+0.470	+0.448	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.130	+0.572	+0.512	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:40.282	+0.724	+0.356	Soft	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:40.304	+0.746	+0.553	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:40.330	+0.772	+0.105	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.353	+0.795	+0.275	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:40.380	+0.822	+0.292	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:40.539	+0.981	+0.344	Soft	5
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.584	+1.026	+0.359	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:40.635	+1.077	+0.437	Soft	9
Alex Rins	1:40.780	+1.222	+0.217	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:40.887	+1.329	+0.562	Soft	9
Luca Marini	1:41.056	+1.498	+0.308	Soft	10
Stefan Bradl	1:41.704	+2.146	+0.530	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	129	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	91	−38
3	Marc Marquez	89	−40
4	Enea Bastianini	89	−40
5	Maverick Viñales	81	−48
6	Pedro Acosta	73	−56

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/23

Laps led by the winner

Aleix Espargaro

0.377 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (15 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:40.884	—	+0.292	Medium	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.966	+0.082	+0.209	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:41.206	+0.322	+0.457	Medium	19
Raul Fernandez	1:41.261	+0.377	+0.667	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:41.314	+0.430	+0.344	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.482	+0.598	+0.193	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.610	+0.726	+0.275	Medium	20
Alex Marquez	1:41.648	+0.764	+0.356	Medium	19
Jack Miller	1:41.726	+0.842	+0.105	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:41.729	+0.845	+0.308	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	85%	+0.74%	+0.106	1	3	7.6
Soft	15%	+1.47%	+0.126	0	0	15.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.