Round 6 of 20 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2023

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

09.06 – 11.06.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:16.863	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.067	20
3	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.977	16
4	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+4.625	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.925	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.908	10
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.999	9
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+12.654	8
9	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+17.102	7
10	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+17.610	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+17.861	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.110	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+21.947	3
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+25.906	2
15	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+26.500	1
16	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+30.150	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+38.001	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+38.662	0
19	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+78.912	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:41.183	12
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+0.369	9
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.952	7
4	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.009	6
5	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+3.668	5
6	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.772	4
7	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.905	3
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.062	2
9	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+6.431	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+6.458	0
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.672	0
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+7.930	0
13	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.022	0
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.508	0
15	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+14.344	0
16	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.666	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+16.725	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+17.247	0
19	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+21.596	0
20	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+35.212	0
21	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+46.189	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 30% · from P1	0.91 / 0.91	2.6 / 2.3
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% · from P1	0.94 / 0.94	1.8 / 1.9
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 28% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 28% · from P1	0.92 / 0.94	1.8 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:47.315	—	+0.356	Soft	12
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.351	+0.036	+0.221	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:47.369	+0.054	+0.457	Soft	20
Johann Zarco	1:47.379	+0.064	+0.344	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:47.562	+0.247	+0.308	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:47.598	+0.283	+0.327	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.795	+0.480	+0.553	Medium	21
Jack Miller	1:47.796	+0.481	+0.105	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.830	+0.515	+0.209	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.896	+0.581	+0.193	Medium	8
Enea Bastianini	1:47.945	+0.630	+0.319	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.994	+0.679	+0.275	Medium	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.049	+0.734	+0.512	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:48.056	+0.741	+0.292	Medium	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:48.161	+0.846	+0.359	Soft	21
Augusto Fernandez	1:48.516	+1.201	+0.437	Medium	21
Michele Pirro	1:48.525	+1.210	+0.267	Soft	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:48.533	+1.218	+0.320	Medium	21
Raul Fernandez	1:48.669	+1.354	+0.667	Medium	20
Lorenzo Savadori	1:49.118	+1.803	+0.781	Medium	20
Jonas Folger	1:50.195	+2.880	—	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.067 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P9 to P3.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Takaaki Nakagami (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/11

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.369 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P18 to P12.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Luca Marini (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:55	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:06:14		Red flag	White flag displayed
Sprint	15:07:14	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:09:34	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:00	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:13:25	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:54	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:12	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #73

Sprint: 7 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	10	7	+3
Jack Miller	4	2	+2
Jorge Martin	5	3	+2
Marc Marquez	2	5	−3
Maverick Viñales	12	15	−3
Michele Pirro	16	18	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Johann Zarco	9→3	+5.0
Brad Binder	10→5	+3.6
Jorge Martin	5→2	+3.4
Raul Fernandez	19→17	−2.6
Jonas Folger	22→19	−2.7
Michele Pirro	16→16	−3.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	64%	+0.59%	+0.053	1	2	10.2
Soft	36%	+0.52%	+0.055	0	1	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.4 °C

Air

max 26.6 °C

48%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 09.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:46.121	—	18	354.0	Soft / Soft	1:47.836	—	5	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.208	+0.087	18	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Brad Binder	01:46.225	+0.104	18	356.4	Hard / Soft	1:49.173	+1.24%	5	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:46.301	+0.180	18	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:46.335	+0.214	18	355.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	01:46.361	+0.240	19	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.400	+0.279	16	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:48.366	+0.49%	5	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:46.404	+0.283	18	352.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:46.409	+0.288	16	350.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Raul Fernandez	01:46.428	+0.307	16	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Michele Pirro	01:46.488	+0.367	17	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:46.506	+0.385	19	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.506	+0.385	19	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:48.495	+0.61%	5	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:46.564	+0.443	17	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.285	+1.34%	5	Medium
15	Enea Bastianini	01:46.801	+0.680	18	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.839	+0.718	16	351.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.889	+0.768	17	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Luca Marini	01:46.934	+0.813	18	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:48.824	+0.92%	5	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.442	+1.321	20	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.593	+1.63%	7	Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:47.614	+1.493	16	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.853	+1.732	17	354.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.102	+1.981	8	350.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.165	+2.044	17	355.2	Medium / Medium	1:48.463	+0.58%	5	Medium
24	Jonas Folger	01:48.482	+2.361	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:51.831	+3.71%	5	Medium

FP2 · 09.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.436	—	22	354.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.499	+0.063	25	354.0	Hard / Soft	1:47.406	+0.21%	12	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:45.517	+0.081	23	354.0	Medium / Soft	1:47.911	+0.68%	5	Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:45.554	+0.118	24	358.8	Hard / Soft	1:47.704	+0.49%	5	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:45.570	+0.134	26	360.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:45.635	+0.199	20	358.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	01:45.662	+0.226	21	356.4	Soft / Soft	1:47.179	—	5	Medium
8	Marc Marquez	01:45.691	+0.255	21	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:47.615	+0.41%	10	Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.784	+0.348	21	355.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Luca Marini	01:45.835	+0.399	23	354.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:45.846	+0.410	26	354.0	Hard / Soft	1:47.733	+0.52%	12	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:45.852	+0.416	21	355.2	Hard / Soft	1:48.068	+0.83%	5	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	01:45.928	+0.492	25	358.8	Hard / Soft	1:47.290	+0.10%	12	Soft
14	Jack Miller	01:46.162	+0.726	20	357.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.238	+0.802	22	350.6	Hard / Soft	1:48.325	+1.07%	7	Soft
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.304	+0.868	24	354.0	Hard / Soft	1:47.488	+0.29%	6	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.547	+1.111	18	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.565	+1.129	23	356.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Michele Pirro	01:46.828	+1.392	20	357.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.014	+1.578	25	352.9	Hard / Soft	1:48.408	+1.15%	5	Soft
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.074	+1.638	24	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.929	+0.70%	5	Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.833	+2.397	19	352.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Joan Mir	01:48.843	+3.407	12	352.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
24	Jonas Folger	01:49.160	+3.724	21	349.5	Hard / Soft	1:49.918	+2.56%	5	Soft

Free practice · 10.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.314	—	14	355.2	— / —	—			—
2	Luca Marini	01:46.459	+0.145	16	356.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.491	+0.177	12	354.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.522	+0.208	13	350.6	Medium / Medium	1:47.466	—	6	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:46.555	+0.241	14	355.2	— / —	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:46.593	+0.279	13	361.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Jorge Martin	01:46.722	+0.408	14	358.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Marquez	01:46.779	+0.465	13	355.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.779	+0.465	15	352.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:46.797	+0.483	13	350.6	— / —	—			—
11	Brad Binder	01:46.891	+0.577	14	356.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:46.903	+0.589	14	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Marc Marquez	01:46.922	+0.608	13	351.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
14	Enea Bastianini	01:47.031	+0.717	14	354.0	— / —	—			—
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.032	+0.718	11	356.4	— / —	—			—
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.098	+0.784	15	351.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.111	+0.797	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.177	+0.863	11	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.183	+0.869	13	347.2	— / —	—			—
20	Michele Pirro	01:47.260	+0.946	8	352.9	— / —	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.826	+1.512	13	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Raul Fernandez	01:48.031	+1.717	8	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Jonas Folger	01:49.098	+2.784	14	350.6	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 10.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:45.231	—	7	354.0	Soft / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:45.559	+0.328	7	356.4	Soft / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:45.591	+0.360	7	354.0	Hard / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.754	+0.523	7	355.2	Hard / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.755	+0.524	7	354.0	Hard / Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.860	+0.629	7	352.9	Medium / Soft
7	Michele Pirro	01:46.002	+0.771	7	357.6	Soft / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.003	+0.772	7	354.0	Hard / Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.170	+0.939	8	354.0	Soft / Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	01:46.347	+1.116	3	354.0	Hard / Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:46.359	+1.128	7	352.9	Soft / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.244	+2.013	6	352.9	Hard / Soft
13	Jonas Folger	01:47.806	+2.575	7	348.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 10.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.855	—	8	356.4	Hard / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:44.933	+0.078	7	355.2	Soft / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:45.007	+0.152	6	354.0	Soft / Soft
4	Luca Marini	01:45.079	+0.224	7	356.4	Soft / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:45.186	+0.331	7	357.6	Soft / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:45.268	+0.413	8	357.6	Hard / Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.290	+0.435	7	357.6	Soft / Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.380	+0.525	8	354.0	Hard / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:45.627	+0.772	6	354.0	Soft / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:45.702	+0.847	8	351.7	Medium / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:45.731	+0.876	4	362.4	Hard / Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:46.884	+2.029	6	360.0	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 10.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	19:41.183	12	11	Hard / Soft	1:46.568	+0.08%	8	Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.369	9	11	Hard / Soft	1:46.486	—	8	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+0.952	7	11	Hard / Soft	1:46.537	+0.05%	9	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	+1.009	6	11	Hard / Soft	1:46.499	+0.01%	9	Soft
5	Luca Marini	+3.668	5	11	Hard / Soft	1:46.950	+0.44%	9	Soft
6	Jack Miller	+3.772	4	11	Hard / missing	1:46.910	+0.40%	9	missing
7	Marc Marquez	+3.905	3	11	Hard / Soft	1:46.885	+0.38%	9	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	+6.062	2	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.104	+0.58%	9	Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	+6.431	1	11	missing / missing	1:47.237	+0.71%	9	missing
10	Fabio Quartararo	+6.458	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.239	+0.71%	8	Soft
11	Brad Binder	+6.672	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.250	+0.72%	9	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+7.930	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.454	+0.91%	9	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	+9.022	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.474	+0.93%	8	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+11.508	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.698	+1.14%	9	Soft
15	Michele Pirro	+14.344	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:47.771	+1.21%	9	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	+16.666	0	11	missing / Soft	1:47.923	+1.35%	9	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.725	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:48.022	+1.44%	9	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+17.247	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:48.080	+1.50%	8	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	+21.596	0	11	Hard / missing	1:48.312	+1.72%	9	missing
20	Augusto Fernandez	+35.212	0	11	Hard / Soft	1:48.525	+1.92%	9	Soft
21	Jonas Folger	+46.189	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:50.249	+3.53%	9	Soft
Out on lap 1	Alex Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Alex Rins		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 11.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:46.286	—	6	356.4	Soft / Medium
2	Johann Zarco	01:46.322	+0.036	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:46.373	+0.087	6	362.4	Hard / Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:46.469	+0.183	6	357.6	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.469	+0.183	6	355.2	Hard / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.581	+0.295	6	355.2	Soft / Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.641	+0.355	6	347.2	Soft / Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:46.651	+0.365	6	356.4	Soft / Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:46.676	+0.390	6	355.2	Medium / Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:46.696	+0.410	6	358.8	Soft / Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.847	+0.561	6	352.9	Medium / Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.928	+0.642	5	347.2	Hard / Medium
13	Michele Pirro	01:47.121	+0.835	5	349.5	Soft / Soft
14	Jack Miller	01:47.171	+0.885	6	360.0	Soft / Soft
15	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.294	+1.008	6	354.0	Medium / Soft
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.338	+1.052	6	355.2	Soft / Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:47.344	+1.058	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.344	+1.058	6	349.5	Medium / Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	01:47.540	+1.254	6	349.5	Soft / Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:47.572	+1.286	6	356.4	Soft / Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:48.032	+1.746	5	347.2	Soft / Medium
22	Jonas Folger	01:48.319	+2.033	6	345.0	Soft / Soft

Race · 11.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:16.863	25	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.351	+0.03%	21	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+1.067	20	23	Hard / Soft	1:47.369	+0.05%	20	Soft
3	Johann Zarco	+1.977	16	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.379	+0.06%	20	Medium
4	Luca Marini	+4.625	13	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.562	+0.23%	21	Medium
5	Brad Binder	+8.925	11	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.598	+0.26%	21	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	+10.908	10	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.830	+0.48%	21	Medium
7	Jack Miller	+10.999	9	23	Hard / Soft	1:47.796	+0.45%	21	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+12.654	8	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.795	+0.45%	21	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	+17.102	7	23	Hard / Soft	1:47.945	+0.59%	21	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	+17.610	6	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.049	+0.68%	21	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	+17.861	5	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.994	+0.63%	20	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	+19.110	4	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.056	+0.69%	20	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.947	3	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.161	+0.79%	21	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+25.906	2	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.533	+1.14%	21	Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	+26.500	1	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.516	+1.12%	21	Medium
16	Michele Pirro	+30.150	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.525	+1.13%	21	Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	+38.001	0	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.669	+1.26%	20	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+38.662	0	23	Hard / Medium	1:49.118	+1.68%	20	Medium
19	Jonas Folger	+78.912	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.195	+2.68%	20	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	14	Hard / Soft	1:47.315	—	12	Soft
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	10	Hard / Medium	1:47.896	+0.54%	8	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Brad Binder	1:47.779*	—	+0.327	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:48.260*	+0.481	+0.292	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Alex Rins	10	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Alex Marquez	3	6	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #73

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	64%	79%	89%	9%	1
Marc Marquez	2	20%	55%	73%	86%	12%	7
Luca Marini	3	13%	43%	63%	80%	18%	5
Jack Miller	4	9%	36%	58%	78%	18%	6
Jorge Martin	5	7%	28%	55%	86%	9%	3
Alex Marquez	6	4%	18%	37%	67%	27%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	7	4%	15%	34%	72%	18%	2
Aleix Espargaro	8	2%	9%	25%	62%	27%	8
Johann Zarco	9	3%	8%	21%	72%	9%	4
Brad Binder	10	2%	6%	16%	66%	9%	11
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	4%	9%	47%	28%	9
Maverick Viñales	12	2%	3%	8%	49%	9%	13
Franco Morbidelli	13	1%	3%	6%	42%	9%	16
Fabio Quartararo	14	1%	2%	3%	29%	18%	10
Takaaki Nakagami	15	1%	2%	3%	23%	18%	17
Michele Pirro	16	0%	2%	2%	16%	28%	15
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	1%	2%	12%	11%	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	0%	1%	2%	8%	9%	14
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	1%	2%	6%	10%	19
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	1%	1%	4%	27%	20
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	1%	1%	3%	14%	18
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	1%	3%	22%	21
Alex Rins	23	0%	0%	1%	3%	9%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	28%	49%	61%	70%	28%	1
Marc Marquez	2	20%	48%	66%	82%	16%	—
Luca Marini	3	14%	44%	66%	88%	9%	4
Jack Miller	4	5%	23%	43%	70%	25%	7
Jorge Martin	5	10%	33%	51%	69%	27%	2
Alex Marquez	6	3%	20%	39%	70%	24%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	7	14%	44%	63%	80%	17%	8
Aleix Espargaro	8	1%	9%	26%	65%	24%	6
Johann Zarco	9	6%	27%	49%	77%	18%	3
Brad Binder	10	0%	3%	17%	70%	11%	5
Enea Bastianini	11	0%	1%	6%	51%	19%	9
Maverick Viñales	12	0%	1%	6%	54%	12%	12
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	0%	1%	27%	17%	10
Fabio Quartararo	14	0%	1%	5%	49%	14%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	15	0%	0%	0%	15%	16%	13
Michele Pirro	16	0%	0%	0%	20%	20%	16
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	0%	22%	18%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	0%	0%	0%	15%	20%	14
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	17
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	11%	15
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	26%	18
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	19
Alex Rins	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	22%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi	20% → 44%	+24	4% → 14%
Johann Zarco	9% → 27%	+18	2% → 6%
Jorge Martin	25% → 33%	+7	7% → 10%
Dropping
Jack Miller	35% → 23%	−12	11% → 5%
Luca Marini	50% → 44%	−7	17% → 14%
Enea Bastianini	6% → 1%	−5	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:46.486	—	+0.553	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	1:46.499	+0.013	+0.344	Soft	9
Jorge Martin	1:46.537	+0.051	+0.457	Soft	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:46.568	+0.082	+0.221	Soft	8
Marc Marquez	1:46.885	+0.399	+0.210	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:46.910	+0.424	+0.105	missing	9
Luca Marini	1:46.950	+0.464	+0.308	Soft	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.104	+0.618	+0.209	Soft	9
Enea Bastianini	1:47.237	+0.751	+0.319	missing	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.239	+0.753	+0.275	Soft	8
Brad Binder	1:47.250	+0.764	+0.327	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.454	+0.968	+0.193	Soft	9
Maverick Viñales	1:47.474	+0.988	+0.292	Soft	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:47.698	+1.212	+0.320	Soft	9
Michele Pirro	1:47.771	+1.285	+0.267	Soft	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:47.923	+1.437	+0.512	Soft	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:48.022	+1.536	+0.359	Soft	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:48.080	+1.594	+0.781	Soft	8
Raul Fernandez	1:48.312	+1.826	+0.667	missing	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:48.525	+2.039	+0.437	Soft	9
Jonas Folger	1:50.249	+3.763	—	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Jorge Martin +0.45%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Marc Marquez +0.52%
S2	Raul Fernandez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.48%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.50%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.22%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S3	Luca Marini +0.10%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.39%	Miguel Oliveira +0.58%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.33%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.24%	Danilo Petrucci +0.32%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.63%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.34%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.07%	Valentino Rossi +0.27%	Cal Crutchlow +0.43%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.21%	Andrea Iannone +0.31%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	94	—
2	Marco Bezzecchi	93	−1
3	Brad Binder	81	−13
4	Jorge Martin	80	−14
5	Johann Zarco	66	−28
6	Luca Marini	54	−40

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

15/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.635 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P24 to P12.

Longest battle: Darryn Binder vs Franco Morbidelli (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:47.175	—	+0.319	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:47.320	+0.145	+0.217	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.455	+0.280	+0.221	Medium	20
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.462	+0.287	+0.275	Medium	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.544	+0.369	+0.209	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.558	+0.383	+0.553	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:47.592	+0.417	+0.344	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:47.613	+0.438	+0.327	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:47.688	+0.513	+0.308	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:47.795	+0.620	+0.292	Soft	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	81%	+0.84%	+0.035	1	3	11.5
Soft	19%	+0.67%	+0.000	0	0	11.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.