Round 10 of 20 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2023

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

18.08 – 20.08.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:23.315	25
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.191	20
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+7.708	16
4	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+10.343	13
5	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.039	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.724	10
7	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+12.917	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.509	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+20.231	7
10	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+20.729	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+21.527	5
12	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.027	4
13	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+24.259	3
14	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+25.365	2
15	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+25.475	1
16	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+28.073	0
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+28.998	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+32.316	0
19	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+42.392	0
20	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+46.239	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	21:01.844	12
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.056	9
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.045	7
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.252	6
5	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.365	5
6	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+11.816	4
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.960	3
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.984	2
9	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+13.634	1
10	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.435	0
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.251	0
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+16.740	0
13	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+18.825	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+19.536	0
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+22.321	0
16	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+25.593	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+25.789	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 31% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 31% · from P1	0.72 / 0.72	3.3 / 3.2
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 23% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 23% · from P1	0.82 / 0.82	2.5 / 2.6
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 33% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 33% · from P1	0.90 / 0.82	2.2 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.537	—	+0.221	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:30.700	+0.163	+0.327	Medium	26
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.761	+0.224	+0.553	Medium	26
Alex Marquez	1:30.800	+0.263	+0.356	Medium	26
Luca Marini	1:30.871	+0.334	+0.308	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:30.880	+0.343	+0.292	Medium	23
Jorge Martin	1:30.946	+0.409	+0.457	Medium	26
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.067	+0.530	+0.193	Medium	4
Joan Mir	1:31.110	+0.573	+0.562	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.173	+0.636	+0.209	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:31.208	+0.671	+0.210	Soft	26
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.312	+0.775	+0.512	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.361	+0.824	+0.275	Medium	24
Pol Espargaro	1:31.420	+0.883	+0.406	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:31.434	+0.897	+0.319	Medium	26
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.500	+0.963	+0.437	Medium	25
Jack Miller	1:31.579	+1.042	+0.105	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.601	+1.064	+0.320	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.642	+1.105	+0.359	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:31.697	+1.160	+0.344	Medium	25
Raul Fernandez	1:31.967	+1.430	+0.667	Medium	21
Iker Lecuona	1:32.017	+1.480	+0.094	Medium	22
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.094	+1.557	+0.781	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

28/28

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

5.191 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P12 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

14/14

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.056 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Pol Espargaro (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:14	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:14	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:14	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:38	Marco Bezzecchi	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:05:58	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:09	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:49	Luca Marini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:14:48	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:15:38	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:16:21	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:20:37	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:21:41	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:03:48	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:07:41	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:11:47	Miguel Oliveira	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:21:30	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:09	Iker Lecuona	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:42:38	Pol Espargaro	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:44:24	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:46:02		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:46:02		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #44 & long lap penalty for rider #89

Race: 9 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 10 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jorge Martin	12	7	+5
Augusto Fernandez	22	19	+3
Enea Bastianini	13	11	+2
Maverick Viñales	2	9	−7
Miguel Oliveira	8	13	−5
Raul Fernandez	17	20	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marco Bezzecchi	7→3	+3.7
Jorge Martin	12→7	+2.9
Augusto Fernandez	22→14	+2.3
Iker Lecuona	21→20	−4.3
Johann Zarco	10→13	−4.4
Jack Miller	4→15	−10.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.88%	+0.060	1	3	10.4
Soft	4%	+0.74%	+0.042	0	0	12.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.4 °C

Air

max 28.9 °C

41%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:29.838	—	20	311.6	Hard / Medium	1:31.069	+0.38%	11	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.237	+0.399	24	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:31.039	+0.34%	10	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.249	+0.411	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Alex Marquez	01:30.286	+0.448	20	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.728	—	10	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.305	+0.467	21	314.4	Soft / Medium	1:31.058	+0.36%	10	Medium
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.307	+0.469	18	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.046	+0.35%	10	Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.338	+0.500	22	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.367	+0.529	21	311.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.376	+0.538	18	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.774	+0.05%	6	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:30.429	+0.591	21	311.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Enea Bastianini	01:30.459	+0.621	20	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.997	+0.30%	11	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:30.460	+0.622	19	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.642	+0.804	22	306.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:30.746	+0.908	24	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:30.975	+0.27%	18	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:30.778	+0.940	20	309.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:30.797	+0.959	19	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:31.806	+1.19%	6	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.821	+0.983	20	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:33.596	+3.16%	7	Medium
18	Marc Marquez	01:30.856	+1.018	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.774	+1.15%	5	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.020	+1.182	23	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:31.798	+1.18%	12	Medium
20	Raul Fernandez	01:31.232	+1.394	19	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.283	+1.445	17	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.710	+2.19%	5	Medium
22	Jack Miller	01:31.366	+1.528	21	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:31.668	+1.04%	6	Medium
23	Iker Lecuona	01:31.885	+2.047	22	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:32.625	+2.09%	6	Medium

Practice · 18.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.533	—	24	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.106	+0.56%	12	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:28.577	+0.044	22	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:29.722	+0.13%	6	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.821	+0.288	21	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Brad Binder	01:28.863	+0.330	29	314.4	Hard / Soft	1:29.885	+0.31%	17	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:28.921	+0.388	28	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.671	+1.19%	11	Medium
6	Jorge Martin	01:29.012	+0.479	28	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:29.923	+0.35%	6	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.052	+0.519	22	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.321	+0.80%	6	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:29.096	+0.563	26	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.343	+0.82%	12	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.155	+0.622	30	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.252	+0.72%	14	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.160	+0.627	26	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.705	+1.22%	12	Medium
11	Luca Marini	01:29.186	+0.653	29	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.474	+0.97%	13	Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.310	+0.777	29	305.0	Soft / Soft	1:29.608	—	5	Soft
13	Marc Marquez	01:29.356	+0.823	26	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:29.400	+0.867	30	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.529	+1.03%	13	Soft
15	Pol Espargaro	01:29.486	+0.953	22	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:31.010	+1.57%	4	Soft
16	Enea Bastianini	01:29.515	+0.982	27	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.906	+1.45%	17	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.621	+1.088	24	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:31.100	+1.67%	6	Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.730	+1.197	25	311.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	01:29.789	+1.256	25	307.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.867	+1.334	28	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.153	+1.72%	15	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.003	+1.470	25	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Iker Lecuona	01:30.223	+1.690	26	307.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Joan Mir	01:30.352	+1.819	22	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 19.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:29.813	—	13	315.7	Hard / Medium	1:29.980	—	5	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.896	+0.083	15	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:30.110	+0.14%	6	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:29.958	+0.145	15	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.964	+0.151	13	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.682	+0.78%	5	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.991	+0.178	16	314.4	Hard / Soft	1:30.098	+0.13%	5	Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:30.042	+0.229	15	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.411	+0.48%	7	Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:30.042	+0.229	15	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.696	+0.80%	6	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.101	+0.288	15	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.382	+0.45%	5	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:30.131	+0.318	17	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.368	+0.43%	6	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	01:30.162	+0.349	16	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.616	+0.71%	6	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.177	+0.364	17	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.683	+0.78%	5	Soft
12	Marc Marquez	01:30.177	+0.364	16	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.298	+1.47%	10	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.207	+0.394	13	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.029	+1.17%	6	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:30.290	+0.477	19	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.547	+0.63%	11	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.388	+0.575	13	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.949	+1.08%	8	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.498	+0.685	13	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.752	+0.86%	6	Soft
17	Enea Bastianini	01:30.514	+0.701	13	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.752	+0.86%	6	Soft
18	Pol Espargaro	01:30.560	+0.747	13	314.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Joan Mir	01:30.631	+0.818	14	307.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.686	+0.873	13	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.064	+1.21%	6	Soft
21	Raul Fernandez	01:30.727	+0.914	14	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:31.752	+1.97%	5	Soft
22	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.823	+1.010	17	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:31.511	+1.70%	12	Soft
23	Iker Lecuona	01:31.477	+1.664	14	305.0	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 19.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	01:28.831	—	9	311.6	Hard / Soft
2	Luca Marini	01:29.120	+0.289	9	311.6	Hard / Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:29.295	+0.464	8	314.4	Hard / Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	01:29.365	+0.534	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.446	+0.615	8	315.7	Hard / Soft
6	Joan Mir	01:29.454	+0.623	9	309.0	Hard / Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:29.476	+0.645	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:29.479	+0.648	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.508	+0.677	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.681	+0.850	7	309.0	Hard / Soft
11	Iker Lecuona	01:29.751	+0.920	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.769	+0.938	9	310.3	Soft / Soft
13	Lorenzo Savadori	01:29.962	+1.131	8	313.0	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 19.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.539	—	8	311.6	Hard / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:28.576	+0.037	8	314.4	Hard / Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:28.653	+0.114	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:28.769	+0.230	8	311.6	Hard / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:28.828	+0.289	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:28.839	+0.300	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.908	+0.369	9	314.4	Hard / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:28.966	+0.427	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.034	+0.495	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:29.113	+0.574	8	311.6	Hard / Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.245	+0.706	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
12	Jorge Martin	01:30.367	+1.828	8	314.4	Hard / Soft

Sprint · 19.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	21:01.844	12	14	Hard / Medium	1:29.862	+0.00%	12	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+2.056	9	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.192	+0.37%	12	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	+5.045	7	14	Hard / Soft	1:30.328	+0.52%	11	Soft
4	Alex Marquez	+8.252	6	14	Hard / Soft	1:30.526	+0.74%	11	Soft
5	Jack Miller	+11.365	5	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.774	+1.02%	11	Medium
6	Pol Espargaro	+11.816	4	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.791	+1.04%	12	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	+11.960	3	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.626	+0.85%	12	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	+11.984	2	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.471	+0.68%	11	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	+13.634	1	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.904	+1.16%	12	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	+14.435	0	14	Hard / Soft	1:30.902	+1.16%	12	Soft
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+15.251	0	14	Hard / Soft	1:30.885	+1.14%	12	Soft
12	Joan Mir	+16.740	0	14	Hard / Soft	1:30.880	+1.14%	11	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	+18.825	0	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.873	+1.13%	12	Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	+19.536	0	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.870	+1.12%	11	Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	+22.321	0	14	Hard / Medium	1:30.845	+1.10%	11	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	+25.593	0	14	Hard / Soft	1:31.657	+2.00%	11	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	+25.789	0	14	Hard / Medium	1:31.256	+1.55%	8	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	11	Hard / Medium	1:30.456	+0.66%	8	Medium
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Luca Marini		0	6	Hard / Medium	1:29.860	—	4	Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	1	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Miguel Oliveira		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:29.517	—	7	315.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.630	+0.113	7	305.0	Hard / Soft	1:29.753	—	5	Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:29.772	+0.255	7	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.135	+0.43%	5	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:29.872	+0.355	7	309.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.883	+0.366	7	311.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.912	+0.395	7	309.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Brad Binder	01:29.929	+0.412	7	311.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.014	+0.497	7	307.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.034	+0.517	7	314.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.035	+0.518	7	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:30.129	+0.612	7	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.479	+0.81%	5	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.316	+0.799	7	307.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:30.354	+0.837	7	306.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.372	+0.855	7	307.6	Hard / Medium	1:30.433	+0.76%	5	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:30.524	+1.007	7	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Luca Marini	01:30.565	+1.048	7	313.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:30.568	+1.051	7	305.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Joan Mir	01:30.662	+1.145	7	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Pol Espargaro	01:30.713	+1.196	7	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.723	+1.206	7	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.345	+1.77%	5	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.782	+1.265	7	307.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Marc Marquez	01:31.322	+1.805	7	307.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Jorge Martin	01:33.708	+4.191	5	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Race · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	42:23.315	25	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.537	—	23	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+5.191	20	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.700	+0.18%	26	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+7.708	16	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.761	+0.25%	26	Medium
4	Luca Marini	+10.343	13	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.871	+0.37%	25	Medium
5	Alex Marquez	+11.039	11	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.800	+0.29%	26	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	+11.724	10	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.880	+0.38%	23	Medium
7	Jorge Martin	+12.917	9	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.946	+0.45%	26	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	+19.509	8	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.361	+0.91%	24	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+20.231	7	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.173	+0.70%	25	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	+20.729	6	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.434	+0.99%	26	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+21.527	5	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.312	+0.86%	25	Medium
12	Marc Marquez	+23.027	4	28	Hard / Soft	1:31.208	+0.74%	26	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+24.259	3	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.697	+1.28%	25	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	+25.365	2	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.500	+1.06%	25	Medium
15	Jack Miller	+25.475	1	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.579	+1.15%	23	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	+28.073	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.420	+0.98%	22	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+28.998	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.601	+1.18%	23	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+32.316	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.642	+1.22%	23	Medium
19	Lorenzo Savadori	+42.392	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:32.094	+1.72%	22	Medium
20	Iker Lecuona	+46.239	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:32.017	+1.64%	22	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	12	Hard / Medium	1:31.110	+0.63%	9	Medium
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	6	Hard / Medium	1:31.067	+0.59%	4	Medium
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.967	+1.58%	21	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Luca Marini	57%	2 ✓
2	Marc Marquez	41%	8
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	31%	10
4	Jack Miller	20%	1 ✓
5	Franco Morbidelli	20%	5
6	Pol Espargaro	10%	3
7	Enea Bastianini	8%	4
8	Takaaki Nakagami	5%	9
9	Raul Fernandez	2%	7
10	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	13
11	Joan Mir	4%	6
12	Augusto Fernandez	1%	12
13	Iker Lecuona	1%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	34%	63%	89%	7
2	Maverick Viñales	25%	51%	80%	2
3	Brad Binder	15%	49%	78%	3
4	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	32%	68%	1
5	Aleix Espargaro	4%	27%	53%	11
6	Alex Marquez	7%	23%	55%	5
7	Johann Zarco	1%	11%	39%	10
8	Jorge Martin	3%	13%	39%	12
9	Fabio Quartararo	3%	8%	27%	9
10	Luca Marini	2%	8%	26%	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	3%	11%	30%	8
12	Jack Miller	1%	4%	19%	4

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Pol Espargaro	13	16	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #44 & long lap penalty for rider #89

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	31%	65%	82%	95%	5%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	20%	53%	73%	87%	11%	8
Brad Binder	3	13%	48%	71%	92%	5%	2
Jack Miller	4	9%	36%	59%	84%	11%	5
Alex Marquez	5	5%	21%	41%	68%	25%	4
Luca Marini	6	5%	20%	42%	80%	11%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	7	4%	14%	35%	78%	11%	—
Miguel Oliveira	8	3%	10%	26%	78%	5%	—
Fabio Quartararo	9	2%	7%	17%	66%	11%	15
Johann Zarco	10	2%	6%	14%	65%	5%	—
Aleix Espargaro	11	1%	4%	9%	46%	18%	7
Jorge Martin	12	2%	3%	7%	45%	5%	3
Enea Bastianini	13	1%	3%	5%	30%	15%	13
Franco Morbidelli	14	1%	3%	5%	26%	5%	9
Joan Mir	15	1%	2%	3%	14%	31%	12
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	1%	3%	15%	10%	6
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	5%	14
Marc Marquez	18	0%	1%	2%	7%	6%	10
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	1%	1%	5%	11%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	20	0%	1%	1%	4%	11%	11
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	8%	16
Augusto Fernandez	22	0%	0%	1%	2%	18%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	23	0%	0%	1%	2%	8%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	33%	57%	67%	72%	27%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	16%	49%	69%	84%	13%	6
Brad Binder	3	24%	58%	75%	86%	12%	2
Jack Miller	4	0%	1%	8%	48%	25%	15
Alex Marquez	5	4%	22%	44%	70%	26%	5
Luca Marini	6	19%	57%	77%	90%	8%	4
Marco Bezzecchi	7	2%	18%	38%	75%	18%	3
Miguel Oliveira	8	1%	7%	24%	67%	20%	—
Fabio Quartararo	9	0%	4%	16%	67%	14%	8
Johann Zarco	10	2%	13%	34%	74%	19%	13
Aleix Espargaro	11	0%	4%	15%	59%	24%	9
Jorge Martin	12	1%	10%	28%	66%	25%	7
Enea Bastianini	13	0%	0%	0%	20%	21%	10
Franco Morbidelli	14	0%	0%	1%	25%	17%	11
Joan Mir	15	0%	0%	1%	25%	25%	—
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	0%	2%	31%	20%	16
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	22%	16%	—
Marc Marquez	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	17%	12
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	20	0%	0%	0%	8%	21%	17
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	34%	20
Augusto Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	14
Lorenzo Savadori	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	24%	19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Luca Marini	26% → 57%	+31	6% → 19%
Brad Binder	45% → 58%	+13	16% → 24%
Francesco Bagnaia	50% → 57%	+8	23% → 33%
Dropping
Jack Miller	34% → 1%	−33	11% → 0%
Fabio Quartararo	11% → 4%	−8	2% → 0%
Miguel Oliveira	13% → 7%	−6	3% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Luca Marini	1:29.860	—	+0.308	Medium	4
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.862	+0.002	+0.221	Medium	12
Brad Binder	1:30.192	+0.332	+0.327	Medium	12
Jorge Martin	1:30.328	+0.468	+0.457	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:30.456	+0.596	+0.344	Medium	8
Maverick Viñales	1:30.471	+0.611	+0.292	Medium	11
Alex Marquez	1:30.526	+0.666	+0.356	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.626	+0.766	+0.209	Medium	12
Jack Miller	1:30.774	+0.914	+0.105	Medium	11
Pol Espargaro	1:30.791	+0.931	+0.406	Medium	12
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.845	+0.985	+0.275	Medium	11
Raul Fernandez	1:30.870	+1.010	+0.667	Medium	11
Enea Bastianini	1:30.873	+1.013	+0.319	Medium	12
Joan Mir	1:30.880	+1.020	+0.562	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.885	+1.025	+0.320	Soft	12
Marc Marquez	1:30.902	+1.042	+0.210	Soft	12
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.904	+1.044	+0.512	Medium	12
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.256	+1.396	+0.437	Medium	8
Iker Lecuona	1:31.657	+1.797	+0.094	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.38%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.36%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Jorge Martin +0.36%	Ai Ogura +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.45%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.34%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.46%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Pol Espargaro +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Brad Binder +0.31%
S2	Brad Binder +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.20%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S2	Jack Miller +0.13%	Enea Bastianini +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.54%	Jack Miller +0.62%
S4	Luca Marini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Miguel Oliveira +0.36%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.19%	Iker Lecuona +0.19%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Enea Bastianini +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.32%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Danilo Petrucci +0.39%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.23%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.09%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.70%
S3	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	214	—
2	Jorge Martin	173	−41
3	Marco Bezzecchi	167	−47
4	Brad Binder	131	−83
5	Johann Zarco	122	−92
6	Aleix Espargaro	107	−107

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

28/28

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P2 to P1.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Marco Bezzecchi (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:30.273	—	+0.457	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.324	+0.051	+0.275	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:30.348	+0.075	+0.105	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.354	+0.081	+0.221	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:30.450	+0.177	+0.308	Medium	26
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.557	+0.284	+0.209	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:30.603	+0.330	+0.344	Medium	26
Brad Binder	1:30.620	+0.347	+0.327	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:30.632	+0.359	+0.217	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.777	+0.504	+0.320	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	74%	+0.56%	+0.020	1	3	9.3
Soft	26%	+0.78%	+0.035	0	0	12.2

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.