Round 11 of 20 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2023

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

01.09 – 03.09.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	38:56.159	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.377	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+2.831	16
4	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.867	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+7.529	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.590	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+10.821	9
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.880	8
9	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+12.889	7
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.280	6
11	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+16.491	5
12	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+16.561	4
13	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+21.616	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+23.108	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+26.740	1
16	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+28.860	0
17	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+33.929	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Did not start	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Did not start	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	20:02.744	12
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.989	9
3	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.040	7
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.857	6
5	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.341	5
6	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+4.940	4
7	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+6.746	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+6.888	2
9	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.068	1
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.380	0
11	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.823	0
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+11.900	0
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.018	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+13.284	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.207	0
16	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.404	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+16.534	0
18	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+17.147	0
19	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+18.658	0
20	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+19.080	0
21	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.574	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 28%	Aleix Espargaro · 17% · from P2	0.91 / 0.91	2.5 / 2.5
Race (after the grid)	Aleix Espargaro · 20% ✓	Aleix Espargaro · 20% · from P2	0.85 / 0.85	2.4 / 2.4
Race (after the sprint)	Aleix Espargaro · 32% ✓	Aleix Espargaro · 32% · from P2	0.83 / 0.85	2.3 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:40.884	—	+0.292	Medium	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.966	+0.082	+0.209	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:41.206	+0.322	+0.457	Medium	19
Raul Fernandez	1:41.261	+0.377	+0.667	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:41.314	+0.430	+0.344	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:41.482	+0.598	+0.193	Medium	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.610	+0.726	+0.275	Medium	20
Alex Marquez	1:41.648	+0.764	+0.356	Medium	19
Jack Miller	1:41.726	+0.842	+0.105	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:41.729	+0.845	+0.308	Medium	21
Augusto Fernandez	1:41.761	+0.877	+0.437	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:41.780	+0.896	+0.553	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:41.813	+0.929	+0.320	Medium	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.935	+1.051	+0.512	Medium	21
Marc Marquez	1:42.113	+1.229	+0.210	Soft	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:42.201	+1.317	+0.359	Medium	19
Joan Mir	1:42.365	+1.481	+0.562	Soft	21
Iker Lecuona	1:42.473	+1.589	+0.094	Soft	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/23

Laps led by the winner

Aleix Espargaro

0.377 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Augusto Fernandez vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (15 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/12

Laps led by the winner

Aleix Espargaro

1.989 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Luca Marini, from P18 to P12.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Maverick Viñales (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:08:22	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:36:14	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out on sighting lap
Race	14:02:37	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:37	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Medical Centre
Race	14:02:37	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:37	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:37	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:37	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:37	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:48		Red flag	Red flag
Race	14:26:19	Enea Bastianini	Did not start	Did not start
Race	14:26:19	Francesco Bagnaia	Did not start	Did not start
Race	14:28:10		Red flag	Pol ESPARGARO black flag with orange disc
Race	14:29:24	Pol Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:33:55	Brad Binder	Retired	Retired
Race	14:43:50	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #23

Sprint: 6 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Maverick Viñales (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Quartararo	17	10	+7
Jack Miller	12	6	+6
Augusto Fernandez	19	14	+5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	13	−5
Miguel Oliveira	3	4	−1
Raul Fernandez	15	16	−1

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Fabio Quartararo	17→7	+6.1
Augusto Fernandez	19→9	+5.4
Maverick Viñales	4→2	+2.8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8→10	−2.7
Marco Bezzecchi	10→12	−3.4
Marc Marquez	11→13	−3.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	85%	+0.74%	+0.106	1	3	7.6
Soft	15%	+1.47%	+0.126	0	0	15.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.6 °C

Air

max 28.8 °C

40%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

31 km/h

Wind

gusts 69 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.809	—	15	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:40.073	+0.264	19	349.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:40.273	+0.464	19	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.712	+0.30%	5	Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:40.859	+1.050	22	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.411	—	16	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.900	+1.091	18	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.768	+0.35%	5	Medium
6	Pol Espargaro	01:40.917	+1.108	17	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.439	+0.03%	6	Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.944	+1.135	19	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.285	+0.86%	5	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.004	+1.195	21	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:41.720	+0.31%	5	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.011	+1.202	21	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:42.485	+1.06%	14	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:41.017	+1.208	19	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.923	+0.51%	5	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:41.144	+1.335	20	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:42.616	+1.19%	11	Medium
12	Alex Marquez	01:41.165	+1.356	20	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.091	+0.67%	6	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	01:41.183	+1.374	17	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.430	+0.02%	10	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	01:41.218	+1.409	21	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.570	+0.16%	16	Medium
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:41.265	+1.456	18	343.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:41.304	+1.495	20	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.714	+0.30%	5	Medium
17	Joan Mir	01:41.339	+1.530	19	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.380	+0.96%	5	Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:41.401	+1.592	19	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:42.138	+0.72%	5	Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	01:41.404	+1.595	15	345.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.406	+1.597	20	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:42.486	+1.06%	5	Medium
21	Marc Marquez	01:41.448	+1.639	16	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.683	+0.27%	5	Medium
22	Iker Lecuona	01:41.925	+2.116	21	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.352	+0.93%	6	Medium

Practice · 01.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.686	—	23	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.484	—	7	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.048	+0.362	24	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.546	+0.06%	8	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.061	+0.375	23	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.257	+0.571	23	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.087	+0.60%	5	Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:39.346	+0.660	23	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.907	+0.42%	5	Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:39.549	+0.863	28	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.439	+0.95%	13	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.550	+0.864	26	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.075	+0.59%	12	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.621	+0.935	22	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Enea Bastianini	01:39.628	+0.942	24	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Jorge Martin	01:39.693	+1.007	26	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Pol Espargaro	01:39.721	+1.035	21	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:39.752	+1.066	23	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Raul Fernandez	01:39.757	+1.071	17	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.779	+1.093	24	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.788	+0.30%	5	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:39.807	+1.121	24	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.987	+0.50%	6	Medium
16	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.891	+1.205	23	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.708	+1.22%	7	Soft
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.106	+1.420	22	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.360	+0.87%	6	Soft
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.155	+1.469	24	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.488	+1.00%	6	Medium
19	Marc Marquez	01:40.249	+1.563	23	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.886	+2.200	20	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	01:40.895	+2.209	23	342.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Joan Mir	01:41.013	+2.327	22	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 02.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.201	—	10	349.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Johann Zarco	01:40.377	+0.176	11	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.932	+0.50%	5	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.400	+0.199	12	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.428	—	5	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:40.479	+0.278	12	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	01:40.480	+0.279	15	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.733	+1.30%	5	Medium
6	Jorge Martin	01:40.531	+0.330	15	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:40.658	+0.457	15	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.710	+0.509	11	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.744	+0.543	14	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:40.772	+0.571	16	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:41.516	+1.08%	10	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.785	+0.584	12	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.362	+0.93%	5	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:40.815	+0.614	12	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.320	+0.89%	6	Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	01:40.868	+0.667	11	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:40.990	+0.789	15	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.410	+0.98%	10	Soft
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:41.105	+0.904	13	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.598	+1.17%	5	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.174	+0.973	13	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.717	+1.28%	5	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:41.316	+1.115	13	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:42.006	+1.57%	6	Soft
18	Marc Marquez	01:41.369	+1.168	12	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.996	+1.56%	6	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.388	+1.187	13	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Joan Mir	01:41.754	+1.553	13	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:42.383	+1.95%	6	Soft
21	Iker Lecuona	01:41.921	+1.720	14	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:42.115	+1.68%	5	Soft
22	Marco Bezzecchi	01:42.171	+1.970	9	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 02.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.789	—	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:39.070	+0.281	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:39.232	+0.443	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:39.330	+0.541	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
5	Raul Fernandez	01:39.360	+0.571	8	348.3	Medium / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.452	+0.663	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.510	+0.721	7	347.2	Medium / Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:39.573	+0.784	8	351.7	Medium / Soft
9	Augusto Fernandez	01:39.794	+1.005	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:40.214	+1.425	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.388	+1.599	8	343.9	Medium / Soft
12	Iker Lecuona	01:40.580	+1.791	8	347.2	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 02.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.639	—	8	351.7	Medium / Soft
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.743	+0.104	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.748	+0.109	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:38.772	+0.133	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:38.797	+0.158	8	355.2	Medium / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:38.858	+0.219	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:39.053	+0.414	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:39.054	+0.415	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:39.057	+0.418	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.368	+0.729	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:39.575	+0.936	8	354.0	Medium / Soft
12	Marc Marquez	01:39.701	+1.062	7	349.5	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 02.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	20:02.744	12	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.828	—	10	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.989	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.027	+0.20%	10	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	+2.040	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.965	+0.14%	10	Soft
4	Brad Binder	+2.857	6	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.952	+0.12%	10	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	+4.341	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.238	+0.41%	10	Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	+4.940	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:39.986	+0.16%	10	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	+6.746	3	12	Medium / Medium	1:40.339	+0.51%	10	Medium
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+6.888	2	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.352	+0.53%	10	Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	+8.068	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.452	+0.63%	10	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	+10.380	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.456	+0.63%	9	Soft
11	Marc Marquez	+11.823	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.928	+1.10%	9	Soft
12	Luca Marini	+11.900	0	12	Medium / Medium	1:40.558	+0.73%	10	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+12.018	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.603	+0.78%	10	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	+13.284	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.693	+0.87%	10	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+16.207	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:40.966	+1.14%	9	Soft
16	Jack Miller	+16.404	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.191	+1.37%	10	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	+16.534	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.052	+1.23%	9	Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	+17.147	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.118	+1.29%	8	Soft
19	Iker Lecuona	+18.658	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.203	+1.38%	10	Soft
20	Takaaki Nakagami	+19.080	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.366	+1.54%	10	Soft
21	Joan Mir	+19.574	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:41.256	+1.43%	9	Soft
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 03.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:40.082	—	6	351.7	Medium / Medium
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.111	+0.029	6	356.4	Medium / Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.184	+0.102	6	351.7	Medium / Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.339	+0.257	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.412	+0.330	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
6	Jorge Martin	01:40.528	+0.446	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:40.627	+0.545	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:40.631	+0.549	6	352.9	Medium / Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	01:40.640	+0.558	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.665	+0.583	6	351.7	Medium / Medium
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.785	+0.703	6	345.0	Medium / Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	01:40.853	+0.771	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.855	+0.773	6	352.9	Medium / Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.894	+0.812	6	347.2	Medium / Medium
15	Jack Miller	01:41.163	+1.081	6	354.0	Medium / Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.218	+1.136	6	345.0	Soft / Medium
17	Marc Marquez	01:41.431	+1.349	6	348.3	Medium / Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:41.505	+1.423	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:41.571	+1.489	3	354.0	Medium / Medium
20	Luca Marini	01:41.697	+1.615	6	350.6	Medium / Medium
21	Iker Lecuona	01:41.741	+1.659	6	346.1	Medium / Soft
22	Johann Zarco	01:41.744	+1.662	6	349.5	Medium / Medium

Race · 03.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	38:56.159	25	23	Medium / Medium	1:40.966	+0.08%	21	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	+0.377	20	23	Medium / Medium	1:40.884	—	20	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	+2.831	16	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.206	+0.32%	19	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	+4.867	13	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.314	+0.43%	21	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	+7.529	11	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.482	+0.59%	19	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+10.590	10	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.648	+0.76%	19	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+10.821	9	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.610	+0.72%	20	Medium
8	Jack Miller	+10.880	8	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.726	+0.84%	21	Medium
9	Augusto Fernandez	+12.889	7	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.761	+0.87%	21	Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+13.280	6	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.813	+0.92%	19	Medium
11	Luca Marini	+16.491	5	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.729	+0.84%	21	Medium
12	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.561	4	23	Soft / Medium	1:41.780	+0.89%	21	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	+21.616	3	23	Medium / Soft	1:42.113	+1.22%	21	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+23.108	2	23	Medium / Medium	1:41.935	+1.04%	21	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	+26.740	1	23	Medium / Medium	1:42.201	+1.31%	19	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	+28.860	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:42.473	+1.58%	20	Soft
17	Joan Mir	+33.929	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:42.365	+1.47%	21	Soft
Retired	Brad Binder		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—
Did not start	Enea Bastianini		0	0	— / —	—			—
Did not start	Francesco Bagnaia		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	1	— / —	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:41.261	+0.37%	8	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.321*	—	+0.221	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.419*	+0.098	+0.275	Medium	3
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.454	+0.133	+0.209	Medium	8
Johann Zarco	1:40.455*	+0.134	+0.344	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:40.646*	+0.325	+0.327	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:40.902	+0.581	+0.667	Medium	6
Jorge Martin	1:41.113*	+0.792	+0.457	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:41.119*	+0.798	+0.320	Medium	3
Marco Bezzecchi	1:41.208*	+0.887	+0.553	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	1:41.294*	+0.973	+0.406	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	1:41.322*	+1.001	+0.319	Medium	4
Alex Marquez	1:41.444	+1.123	+0.356	Medium	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.518*	+1.197	+0.512	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:41.878*	+1.557	+0.105	Medium	3
Marc Marquez	1:42.068*	+1.747	+0.210	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	57%	1 ✓
2	Jack Miller	41%	3
3	Pol Espargaro	31%	4
4	Luca Marini	21%	8
5	Raul Fernandez	19%	5
6	Fabio Quartararo	9%	7
7	Augusto Fernandez	8%	9
8	Franco Morbidelli	4%	6
9	Marc Marquez	2%	2 ✓
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	11
11	Joan Mir	4%	10
12	Iker Lecuona	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	34%	63%	88%	2
2	Maverick Viñales	24%	51%	81%	4
3	Johann Zarco	14%	49%	78%	6
4	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	33%	68%	1
5	Alex Marquez	4%	27%	52%	7
6	Miguel Oliveira	7%	23%	55%	3
7	Brad Binder	1%	11%	39%	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	13%	38%	8
9	Jorge Martin	3%	8%	27%	5
10	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	8%	26%	10
11	Enea Bastianini	3%	11%	30%	11
12	Marc Marquez	1%	4%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Enea Bastianini	11	14	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #23

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	28%	65%	81%	94%	5%	2
Aleix Espargaro	2	17%	47%	65%	80%	17%	1
Miguel Oliveira	3	13%	42%	64%	84%	13%	6
Maverick Viñales	4	10%	35%	58%	84%	11%	3
Jorge Martin	5	8%	30%	54%	88%	5%	5
Johann Zarco	6	5%	20%	41%	78%	11%	7
Alex Marquez	7	4%	13%	29%	64%	24%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	4%	12%	28%	71%	11%	13
Brad Binder	9	2%	8%	20%	71%	5%	4
Marco Bezzecchi	10	2%	6%	14%	57%	17%	8
Marc Marquez	11	2%	5%	12%	55%	6%	11
Jack Miller	12	1%	4%	7%	43%	11%	16
Pol Espargaro	13	1%	3%	7%	35%	10%	—
Enea Bastianini	14	1%	3%	5%	25%	15%	9
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	2%	4%	22%	5%	14
Franco Morbidelli	16	1%	2%	4%	17%	5%	15
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	1%	3%	11%	11%	18
Luca Marini	18	0%	1%	2%	8%	17%	12
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	1%	2%	6%	17%	17
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	29%	21
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	17%	20
Iker Lecuona	22	0%	0%	1%	3%	8%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	22%	51%	64%	73%	27%	—
Aleix Espargaro	2	32%	59%	70%	76%	23%	1
Miguel Oliveira	3	12%	41%	63%	77%	21%	5
Maverick Viñales	4	20%	56%	74%	86%	13%	2
Jorge Martin	5	5%	26%	48%	73%	24%	3
Johann Zarco	6	4%	22%	45%	77%	19%	4
Alex Marquez	7	1%	8%	26%	66%	25%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	0%	4%	17%	63%	20%	10
Brad Binder	9	5%	26%	52%	83%	12%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	10	1%	7%	24%	70%	17%	12
Marc Marquez	11	0%	0%	4%	39%	17%	13
Jack Miller	12	0%	0%	1%	20%	25%	8
Pol Espargaro	13	0%	0%	3%	38%	20%	—
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	1%	9%	53%	21%	—
Raul Fernandez	15	0%	0%	2%	33%	19%	—
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	0%	1%	23%	17%	14
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	14%	7
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	1%	30%	8%	11
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	7%	9
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	15
Iker Lecuona	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	33%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Maverick Viñales	40% → 56%	+16	13% → 20%
Brad Binder	11% → 26%	+15	2% → 5%
Aleix Espargaro	47% → 59%	+12	20% → 32%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15% → 4%	−11	3% → 0%
Alex Marquez	18% → 8%	−10	5% → 1%
Marc Marquez	6% → 0%	−5	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:39.828	—	+0.209	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:39.952	+0.124	+0.327	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:39.965	+0.137	+0.292	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.986	+0.158	+0.193	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.027	+0.199	+0.221	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:40.238	+0.410	+0.457	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:40.339	+0.511	+0.344	Medium	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:40.352	+0.524	+0.553	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:40.452	+0.624	+0.319	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:40.456	+0.628	+0.356	Soft	9
Luca Marini	1:40.558	+0.730	+0.308	Medium	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.603	+0.775	+0.320	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:40.693	+0.865	+0.667	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:40.928	+1.100	+0.210	Soft	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.966	+1.138	+0.512	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:41.052	+1.224	+0.437	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.118	+1.290	+0.275	Soft	8
Jack Miller	1:41.191	+1.363	+0.105	Soft	10
Iker Lecuona	1:41.203	+1.375	+0.094	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:41.256	+1.428	+0.562	Soft	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.366	+1.538	+0.359	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	251	—
2	Jorge Martin	189	−62
3	Marco Bezzecchi	183	−68
4	Brad Binder	160	−91
5	Johann Zarco	125	−126
6	Luca Marini	120	−131

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

6.473 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P25 to P10.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Jorge Martin (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.960	—	+0.275	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:41.123	+0.163	+0.344	Hard	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:41.125	+0.165	+0.209	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:41.148	+0.188	+0.457	Medium	20
Luca Marini	1:41.383	+0.423	+0.308	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:41.394	+0.434	+0.562	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:41.399	+0.439	+0.319	Medium	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:41.546	+0.586	+0.320	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:41.680	+0.720	+0.292	Soft	20
Brad Binder	1:41.694	+0.734	+0.327	Medium	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	68%	+0.65%	+0.067	1	2	8.1
Hard	23%	+0.97%	+0.085	0	1	11.8
Soft	9%	+0.84%	+0.063	0	0	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.